Cycling 2012

[Darran]

Re: Cycling 2012

I see Paddy Power are offering 8/1 on Froome to grab KotM - which sounds like a good shout to me. Should follow his captain all the way over the mountains, which should get him a lot of points, and the way the points are payed out now, it tends to reward the favourites. And, furthermore, with Sky looking good for the yellow, riding partly for the polka dot doesn't seem out of the question, and I'm sure Froome will be in the running for a similar stage win to what he had (which will get him a lot of points). Thoughts?

I certainly think he has a chance, but it looks every bit as wide open as the betting suggests so Im not getting involved.

[Darran]

Re: Cycling 2012

Cavendish is available @ 2.2 on Betfair to finish the race. It's not troubled him previously to get through the mountains to see things out. The final stage in Paris is very much to the fore in his stage winning thoughts and at that price I feel it's well worth a punt.

I had a bit on at 6/4 last week and amazed he is still odds against to finish. He has talked about wanting to be in Paris to celebrate with Wiggins as well which is another incentive for him. Also he did a bit of work on the front I believe the otherday to help out the team and given they are a man down they wont want to lose another fit man given you never know if something else might happen to the others. Im fairly certain he will reach Paris bar injury or illness.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling 2012 I'm quite hopeful of seeing some of the GC riders attack tonight. The descents on the finish give Nibali a big incentive to attack near the top of the climbs and then extend his advantage as he goes back down. For that reason I'm going to try something different tonight and try and back Nibali in play to win. I am hoping once a break goes his odds will draft a bit and then I'll back. I've taken a few pre-stage bets for small stakes though: Rein Taaramae @ 151 E/W 1/4 1-3 Bet365 If the favourites do end up contesting the win then I think the Estonian has to be considered value. He was dropped the last stage but before that he showed great abilities to finish the first MTF ahead of the likes of Menchov, Schleck, Rolland, Sanchez etc. Sky wont bother to chase him if he goes on a late little attack and he's not a real hope of a podium so if a group of Evans, Froome, Wiggins, Nibali and JVDB were to come to the finish together I expect he'd have a good chance of taking the stage win. JJ Cobo Acebo @ 101 BetVictor He doesn't seem too interested in this tour but he was in one of the unsuccessful breakaway attempts the other day. Valverde has no real GC hopes and most of the Movistar team has already abandoned or are a bit banged up. I don't expect him to be overly motivated for a break but still give him some hope of making one. If he does, then he'll almost instantly be the best climber in it. Worth a small go IMO.

[best mate]

Re: Cycling 2012 Cadel Evans has got to attack today. I put up a 1pt back each way on Betfair yesterday afternoon and that got taken at 11 for the win & 4 for the place, and both of those have now come in. Going cautious as I think someone could stay away to the end with Cadel leading the chasers. Today, we'll see if anyone has a plan to mess with the Sky train although if Sky can survive the next two days more or less intact. it's theirs. Slight feeling Wiggins could falter in the mountains but I can't see him losing as much as 2 minutes and I doubt he will mess it up over a couple of stages, perhaps just one. I'll also be looking to play in running as this pans out. That will all depend on who is in any breakaway and I'll be looking at Froome specifically and I could trade out of my Cadel bets if he trades a lot lower.

[antogz]

Re: Cycling 2012 It's hard to see a breakaway stay away today. I think one of the favourites will win it. I'll be shocked if Nibali, Evans or JVDB, doesn't attack sky/us postal today. Today is the day to get at Wiggins, hopefuuly it is raining on those descents. I agree with Crouch on Nibali, back him in running, the odds will definitely drift. I'm going to have a small bet on Egoi Martinez @ 89 on betfair. Nothing to ride for now with Sanchez gone. He has looked in fairly good form, he should go for the KOM now. I'm sure he will be in the breakaway. Also going to do him at 125/1 bet 365 for KOM. Marcato at 250/1 with bet 365 is my other outsider. Got caught in the crash on stage 8 so lost a good bit of time., nothing to lose now and can climb. We could see him in the break today. 1pt Martinez @ 129 on betfair 0.5 pts e/w Marcato 250/1 bet 365. Nibali in running.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling 2012 This is some horribly insipid riding from the non Sky contenders today. Wiggins is so far ahead it's not funny (given ITT to come) and everyone lets sky dictate tempo up a big mountain and then make a poser attack within 1k from the summit. Credit to Sky for controlling thing so well but it makes for very boring entertainment.

[Darran]

Re: Cycling 2012 Maybe they cant attack?

[best mate]

Re: Cycling 2012 Evans must be expecting Sky to tire at some point. They probably will but it might not be until well into next week and then they can get it back on the TT. Sky are doing most of the work so realistically it will start to have an effect but I just can't see either Evans or Nibali taking 2 minutes out of Wiggins or Froome at anytime. If Evans had gone with Nibali on that descent that may have had some affect, but he didn't. I think Evans is playing poker with them, the only problem being, his wining hand isn't going to be enough. Sky must be delighted, another day ticked off. Still, tomorrow is another day and looks like it could be this year's definitive stage. Another short one so we should see some early skirmishes. The race really needs Contador back and Shleck.

[disposal bag]

Re: Cycling 2012 First of all thanks to the good tipsters over here you are doing a great job keep up the work! For tomorrow hard stage and the big riders will have to show them selve. So of course Froome/Nibali/Evans/ vd Broeck are the big favourites and the odds reflect this. Personal i go for the second best riders so far, hope they go for an early escape. F Schleck odds betfair 20 1 unit J v Endert odds betfair 32 1 unit P. Rolland odds betfair 14 1 unit J. Coppel odds unibet 125 2 units because overe here the odds are too high L ten Dam odds betfair 70 1 unit this bet is more funbet hoping for a dutch win after 7 years with P Weening and he had good legs today and told the dutch press he is going for the early escape tomorrow. GL

[best mate]

Re: Cycling 2012 I'm all in for Chris Froome tomorrow and think we'll finish with the main protagonists we had at the finish at the weekend, so yes, the prices are about right. He's shown so far he's the best climber and can even get pass Cadel Evans in a rush to the line. Let's hope for some entertainment tomorrow, one thing that is certain, with all the different climbs we should see some large gaps appearing, a day for the top 10 to be blown wide open. If Sky can come out of this stage intact, then the race is over for the yellow. At the other end, this could be the stage to test Wiggins although he hasn't looked that troubled up to now. If that does occur, I'm risking Froome doesn't have to take on domestique duties and is allowed to ride on. Taking 10/1, 2pts e/w with Betfred although Skybet do the same. 8s mostly elsewhere.

[antogz]

Re: Cycling 2012 What another disaster today was. Why the **** didn't people attack. When you see EBH setting tempo on the front, they can't be going that fast. I don't know what Nibali or Evans were thinking. At least JVDB attacked and he has looked the strongest climber to me. I think if it comes down to the main boys tomorrow he will win it. The 7/1 on offer with Corals looks good. I'm going to take a chance on Cobo 80/1 with bet 365. I don't know what he is playing at, but he can't be that bad. Tomorrow would suit him perfect for a breakaway win. Peter Velits at 100/1 with bet 365 is my other. Started well but has tumbled down the GC. Again the break would suit as on his day he is a top climber. 1pt e/w Cobo 80/1 bet 365 1pt e/w Velits 100/1 bet 365 4pt win JVDB 7/1 Corals

[Darran]

Re: Cycling 2012 Its all very easy sitting behind a computer screen saying why dont they attack, but we arent cycling round France for 3 weeks. Lets be fair Nibali did attack and it failed big time, but at least you could see what the plan was. In my view it wasnt really the stage to attack and as it proved it was fairly easy for Sky to bring it back together. I reckon we will see more action tomorrow. I had to leave for work before the main bunch came in but it was mentioned that Evans attacked in the final km and I dont get why he keeps doing this. Now he has lost so much time he would be better saving his energy for a bigger attack as he needs a big time gain not a handful of seconds. I thought it was odd that Rolland went with JVDB so maybe he is improving as the Tour is going on and wanted to stretch his legs. He could be interesting tomorrow.

[Crouch Potato]

Its less a question of why don't they attack and more a statement that's it's pretty boring that they don't. I wasn't overly impressed with Nibali's strategy last night. Attacking after the summit isn't going to help because Wiggins has so many team mates to chase for him. I have no doubt you need to isolate Wiggins to succeed in an attack, which means attacking uphill rather than down. An agreed that Evans attacks are fruitless. He needs more than seconds and not to do it when it's so easy for Wiggins to chase without him having to worry about energy levels for the stage. As for today it depends on Evans and Nibali. If they don't attack early on the last climb none of them or Sky will win as someone like JVDB or Rolland will attack and I'm sure Wiggins won't chase those guys, so I think you are looking for a Rolland or a JVDB to win if Evans and Nibali don't attack.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling 2012 For the record, I'm quite well aware that riding a tour must be extremely taxing, so the fact that riders don't have the energies to attack is understandable. But when they let UK Postal dictate things on their own terms like last night it is both boring and confusing, given that Nibali used up energy to attack anyway. I think the key for any unlikely attack to do damage is to go when it is most uncomfortable for Sky, not when it is most comfortable for the attacker. Attacks that don't isolate Wiggins are useless IMO. Anyway, tonight I have taken Pierre Rolland. Cadel doesn't really a lot of acceleration and neither does Nibali, and I expect Froomiggins to just mark these two all stage. Rolland looks to have his climbing legs back and if he's with them in the final kms he'll just attack them and nobody will bother to chase him from Sky. I think he's excellent value. Of course, the break could win, but with so many mountains, you'd have to think it's odds against. I do quite like the look of Daniel Martin to win KOTM (42 Betfair) though. Voeckler isn't even on 30pts yet, and even discounting the points from the final climb, there are over 50pts on offer today. This is the first significant KOM stage and given Martin started off quite short and is barely a HC win off the lead I think these odds are quite attractive.

[antogz]

Re: Cycling 2012 I was reading Dan Martins blog and he has been sick for the last week and was taking it easy with this stage in mind. He is feeling better today and is going for the KOM jersey and the stage win. He is 33/1 with PP for KOM, great each way value, well worth a bet. He can be got at 50/1 to win the stage. I'll be having a bit of both.

[Darran]

Re: Cycling 2012 Best Mate did you see Boylesports and Skybet were going the first 4 on today's stage?

[best mate]

Re: Cycling 2012

Best Mate did you see Boylesports and Skybet were going the first 4 on today's stage?

No, didn't notice that but that's great news. To be fair, bookmakers know it's so competitive for them, they've got to come up with incentives. Hope others will now follow suite and this will become more the norm.

[Darran]

Re: Cycling 2012 I agree with you on stages like today where its 11/2 the field and you have a large number of riders who might win. Betfred were doing it as well.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling 2012 That was a much more entertaining stage. Evans attack didn't quite work the way it planned but it was great to see him try. Froome is simply too strong though - I honestly believe he is the strongest rider in the peloton. I didn't realize just how good he was.

[best mate]

Re: Cycling 2012 Not sure if Froome was just trying his luck to see if Sky would have let him go on when he attacked or if Wiggins had told him to go on for the stage win, it looked like the former. The next shot is Froome talking into his radio presumably getting orders to wait for Wiggins who looked cooked at that point. Even next week in the Pyrenees if Nibali can take something out of Wiggins, he surely isn't going to be able to cope with Froome although Sky must tire in the 3rd week after all the work they've done. Good stage. Another one ticked off for Sky with the added bonus of crushing poor old Evans as well. This Tour has really shown how after dominating on the track, British cycling can also do so out on the road. Sky certainly seemed to have brought a new dimension to the sport. They are mopping up all over the place this year, Ben Swift winning Stage 2 in Poland yesterday as well. I'm still expecting Cavendish to come back and nick 1 or 2 more stages as well before this race is over. Also, if he hasn't been completely knackered with all his pacing duties, Boasson Hagen may have something to offer in a couple of the more rolling stages to come.

[Darran]

Re: Cycling 2012 Evans' attack was way too early and you could tell that he didnt have the legs as he was stood up just trying to keep up with his team mates. I dont think it was a massive surprise after that he ended up getting dropped. I guess we will have to see if that was just a one off or he is going to struggle for the rest of the race. Would be interesting if Froome was on another team as you suspect he probably is the best rider in the race bar time-trials and he clearly isnt that far behind Wiggins on them either. Glad to have got a stage winner in the bag after a few places and hopefully he can target the KOTM now.

[antogz]

Re: Cycling 2012 A better stage today, but still the same result. Evans tried and failed, and looks on the way out unfortunately. Nibali done well to attack but he should have put the hammer down, maybe he couldn't. I think Froome was trying his luck, to be honest, but was put in his place. Wiggins looked under serious pressure towards the end, so all is not lost yet. As I said before i have serious doubts about Froome, could be drugged up to the eyeballs, time will tell I suppose. Wiggins comments haven't been the best either. US postal number 2 comes to mind. The sooner Contador comes back and blows them out of the water the better.

[Darran]

Re: Cycling 2012 So you want someone who has been suspended for taking drugs to come back and blow everyone else out of the water? Id be amazed if anyone on the Sky team is taking drugs as they are so strict on it and they know how seriously we take drugs in this country so cant see it myself. Seems like your just the type of person who Wiggins quite rightly was having a go at the other day.

[best mate]

Re: Cycling 2012 I sincerely hope he is clean but in cycling there's always going to be this worry, particularly if someone comes along and improves dramatically. I'm taking everyone as clean unless we get told otherwise. To be fair to Wiggins although his outbursts this week have been a bit OTT, he is correct in saying he has gone from being an exemplary track cyclist now to one of the road, competing at the highest level. I think other teams will start to replicate the Sky training regime as well though I wonder if any of the other teams are able to match them for funding. Reminds me of the changes Martin Pipe did to training regimes in racing back 20 years ago now that have been taken up by other trainers. It would be great to see how a clean Contador can match against Sky and adding Andy Schleck into the mix would at least give us more competition. Hard not to see a Sky domination for the next while. Other teams may have potential stars coming along such as Pierre Rolland, Teejay Van Garderen, Dan Martin and Rein Taaramae but they need the complete teams behind them and I don't see that at the moment.

[antogz]

Re: Cycling 2012

So you want someone who has been suspended for taking drugs to come back and blow everyone else out of the water? Id be amazed if anyone on the Sky team is taking drugs as they are so strict on it and they know how seriously we take drugs in this country so cant see it myself. Seems like your just the type of person who Wiggins quite rightly was having a go at the other day.

Contador was wrongly suspended in my opinion. He gained nothing by having that tiny amount in his system. He was a proven winner and had no need to take anything. Wiggins and Froome rise is very suspicious. Wiggins comments could have been a lot better, it seemed to touch a nerve. It certainly wouldn't surprise me, if he is drug taking. Everyone is entitled to their opinion addpea, tell Wiggins that, throwing his toys out of the pram like a spoilt child the other day.

[disposal bag]

Re: Cycling 2012 Great stage and great stage winner! Rolland really delifered today and get use some money. With the riding of froome today we really need to look at the odds For winning the tour. I already picked Him for winning the climbers Jersey a few day ago. Tomorrow we will see an early escape and the will get to the finish! Still have to see the odds but guys like: N roche/velits/ martinez/ r Costa/casar/ d Martin will have to do the trick! Gl

[Darran]

Re: Cycling 2012

Contador was wrongly suspended in my opinion. He gained nothing by having that tiny amount in his system. He was a proven winner and had no need to take anything. Wiggins and Froome rise is very suspicious. Wiggins comments could have been a lot better' date=' it seemed to touch a nerve. It certainly wouldn't surprise me, if he is drug taking. Everyone is entitled to their opinion addpea, tell Wiggins that, throwing his toys out of the pram like a spoilt child the other day.[/quote'] Im not sure Contador did dope either to be honest but the point is he has actually been found guilty of it and no one on the Sky team has. Wiggins has been at the top level of cycling for years so I dont see why his rise is such a shock. At the end of the day you could question the likes of Sagan and Cav as well if you were going to question every performance you see. I think Wiggins' answer was superb the other day as it told the world what he felt, maybe the swear words were OTT, but if you have been working hard to get to the level he has got to and people are saying he must be taking drugs then I am not surprised he gave the reaction he did. I would be the same and I sure you would be as well.

[Darran]

Re: Cycling 2012

I sincerely hope he is clean but in cycling there's always going to be this worry, particularly if someone comes along and improves dramatically. I'm taking everyone as clean unless we get told otherwise. To be fair to Wiggins although his outbursts this week have been a bit OTT, he is correct in saying he has gone from being an exemplary track cyclist now to one of the road, competing at the highest level. I think other teams will start to replicate the Sky training regime as well though I wonder if any of the other teams are able to match them for funding. Reminds me of the changes Martin Pipe did to training regimes in racing back 20 years ago now that have been taken up by other trainers. It would be great to see how a clean Contador can match against Sky and adding Andy Schleck into the mix would at least give us more competition. Hard not to see a Sky domination for the next while. Other teams may have potential stars coming along such as Pierre Rolland, Teejay Van Garderen, Dan Martin and Rein Taaramae but they need the complete teams behind them and I don't see that at the moment.

I like the linking to Martin Pipe and I think you are spot on. Look at what the GB track team did and other countries are now catching up with them and now Sky are doing the same on the road as well.

[Leadbelly]

Re: Cycling 2012 Well done everyone who was on Rolland today. A deserved win after a super tough stage. BTW please please please can we have less drugs chat - there's more than enough of that on a certain other forum without it intruding here.

[Darran]

Re: Cycling 2012

Well done everyone who was on Rolland today. A deserved win after a super tough stage. BTW please please please can we have less drugs chat - there's more than enough of that on a certain other forum without it intruding here.

Here here Im not even sure why it was mentioned in the first place.