Cycling 2012

[Leadbelly]

First race of the year starts tomorrow, so I guess we better have a new thread. Just going to quote ogii55's post from last year's thread as it contains some useful sites for checking news, form and parcours etc.

Here will try to put some interesting info for all cycling punters that would help in the selections during the year! The bigger info stream: www.cyclingnews.com Here you may receive all the laters news and comments every day with some very nice buletins. Also Cyclingnews is keeping archive of all the tours during UCI calendar. They are putting live ticker for bigger races, as well as start lists, previews, maps, fast full results for H2H players as me. Very useful forum also, where you may discus the current races or future ones. Cycling's mania: www.cyclingfever.com The page is made very well. Here you may follow very easy every single race of the UCI calendar. They put sometimes nice previews. You have team lists and they put stats on the competitors how they made in the previous editions of the current race. Very useful info IMO. Cyclists season profile: http://www.nieuwsblad.be/sportwereld/wielrennen It's a Belgian news page with a lot of actual news and reports. Very useful for competitions in Belgium with many interviews with participants/managers. The most useful part is the profile of every cyclist from the current season. It shows easely where they finished in every competition that took part. Just you may click on "Alle Renners" and to find the cyclist by his name or the name of his team. Cycling's racing post: www.cyclingarchives.com The place, where you may see entire career of every cyclist. Very useful when you comparing or making studies for some competition. Cycling's streams: www.cyclingfans.com This is the place where they collect the most of the video and audio streams around the world that shows cycling. A lot of other useful info as fast results, presentation of future races, photos etc. Cycling's maniacs: www.steephill.tv Very nice page with easy to manage menus. Gives great info for all current and future races. Cool Maps, live tickers - even for races that aren't showed nowhere, you may get some live updates via tweeter zone. Bookies compare: www.oddschecker.com Usual for all other sports. Sometimes didn't check all head to heads around, but however still very nice if you want to get the best price, without goint here or there. Bookies who loves cycling: Paddy power often put earlier odds, comparing to others. Their bookies section are fast enought. If oyu are a Top 3 player, who may use Unibet, Bet24 or Centrebet. From them Unibet gives the best place odds. Bet 365, Paddy, Unibet, Centrebet, Sportingbet, Bet24, WH are putting H2H, with bet365 has the richest market. Pinnacle are mostly the last, who put their odds, but their juice are the best around. Also the market of H2H propositions is rich as bet365. Betfair markets are useful just for big competitions, because there aren't strong trades for smaller. Pinnaclesports gives the best limmits for H2H. In the smallest competition they put a max of around E250 per bet, without changing line. Sometimes it reaches 500. For Grand Tours or World championships you may bet even on E1000 per H2H. Skybet, Ladbrokes, Expekt also put sometimes odds, but they love stronger and TV supported races. This is the basic you need to start geting into cycling world of betting :)

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling 2012 Tour Down Under Winner - Greg Van Avermaet @ 41 PP The profile of the course lends itself to a rider of Van Avermaet's style as opposed to the sprinters who traditionally came into this event as favourite. EBH and Gerrans top the betting and it's hard to argue based on the former's ability and the latter's form and GreenEDGE motivation. However, a rider like Van Avermaet certainly shares a lot of the same skill sets as these riders and I feel there's a little bit of value at this odds.

[Leadbelly]

Re: Cycling 2012 Tour Down Under starts (early!) tomorrow. Very difficult to pick winners for the first race of the season - you just don't know how winter training has gone, how new teams are going to get along and even if riders are going to give it their all. Anyway due to those reasons and the time difference I'm only gonna dip my toe into the betting waters with a little H2H bet. Going for Matty Lloyd (2.4 with Bet365) to beat Mick Rogers in the overall H2H. Barring crashes this bet will probably come down to a rejigged stage 5 finish and who can get up Old Willunga Hill faster. Think the profile of the climb is 3km at ~7% with it being steeper towards the bottom. On a longer climb I'd lean more towards Rogers, but I think the shorter nature will favour Lloyd who is slightly more explosive. Both had pretty non-existant 2011s for differing reasons and the only form we have to go on is the recent Australian Road National Championships where Lloyd looked in good nick, only being beaten by Gerrans (who I'd have as favourite for the overall).

[Leadbelly]

Re: Cycling 2012

Tour Down Under Winner - Greg Van Avermaet @ 41 PP The profile of the course lends itself to a rider of Van Avermaet's style as opposed to the sprinters who traditionally came into this event as favourite. EBH and Gerrans top the betting and it's hard to argue based on the former's ability and the latter's form and GreenEDGE motivation. However, a rider like Van Avermaet certainly shares a lot of the same skill sets as these riders and I feel there's a little bit of value at this odds.

One other thing in GVA's favour is that later in the season he's going to be playing second (maybe even third or fourth) fiddle to Gilbert, Hushovd and possibly Evans (depending on what races they all run). So if he's after a bit of personal glory, and who isn't, he's gonna have to try at smaller events like this.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling 2012 Yeah. He said a stage win and a top 10 finish was his goal, but if he wins the right stage then he could find himself in the ochre jersey anyway. Either way I liked him for small stakes value. Also liked these 3 for small stakes value in tomorrow's stage -- basically I'm just picking riders who could benefit from the profile with the knowledge that maybe not everyone is trying so early and a surprise winner could pop up. It should also be noted that Greipel lost 2 team-mates in today's crash. Will be harder now for him to get positioned in sprints and have breaks chased down. Michael Mathews @ 15 Paddy Mathews won this stage last year and I think will be keen to try for the win again. His primary duty is to lead out Renshaw but the small climbing at the end will likely be too much for Renshaw, paving the way for Mathews to have his shot at a stage win. Cam Mayer @ 67 Bet365 Mayer has said that he hopes for a hot day and that if it is he will look to attack late on the final climb and try and get a stage win. Given this is the first race of the season where some riders are just finding their legs I think there's more possibility of some unexpected results and Mayer is a talented rider who has declared he might look to win the stage. For me this combination at these odds is good enough in a stage like this. Grega Bole @ 101 Paddy Pettachi can surprise on sprint stages that have a bit of climbing on them but I wouldn't say with authority that he makes it to contest any potential bunch sprint. If he can't then Bole is the type of rider who could win from a select group or try on his own on his type of profile.

[Leadbelly]

Re: Cycling 2012 Flashy new forum! Let's have some flashy bets. Tour of Qatar starts tomorrow. Five pan flat stages and a TTT to sort out a winner. Reading from the golf thread there seems to be a bit of wind around, though this looks to be calming a bit for Sunday at least, but no doubt it will play a part through the week. Got the same pick for the overall as for the first stage and that is Mehdi Sohrabi (201 ew with Bet365 for the overall and 151 ew with Bet365 for the first stage). There was a bit of talk about this guy towards the end of last season as several teams were after his signature and more importantly his UCI points after he dominated the Asian Tour last year. He finally picked Lotto-Belisol and since Greipel is missing this week through illness, I reckon there's a fair chance they'll ride for Sohrabi (they could of course ride for the much shorter priced Henderson but as a known quantity I can't see him doing much). There admittedly hasn't been much talk about him in the build up to this race, but I like the odds for someone who could slip under the bookies radar. Team should do ok in the TTT and it will be interesting to see how he fairs in the sprints. Still it's early in the season and I'm obviously not going overboard with the stakes.

[Leadbelly]

Re: Cycling 2012 Big news elsewhere in the world of cycling today, but on to stage 3 after today's TTT. Two small bets. First Guardini to beat Cavendish in the H2H (2.75 with Bet365). Neither of them contested the sprint on Sunday and after seeing how (relatively) chunky Cav is looking I'm not too sure how serious he is taking the race. He aslo is recovering from a bit of alleged sickness, but that could be viewed as sandbagging or getting the excuses in early. So if neither contests it, it should end up being a 50-50 shout. Also having a punt on Galimzyanov (14 with Bet365) for the stage win. He didn't get to contest the sprint on Sunday after getting a late puncture and he looked absolutely raging. He's the sort of sprinter that doesn't always need a train and could thrive in a confused finish and with the demise of HTC it wouldn't surprise me if we get more confused sprints this year. Katusha also surprised me today with their TTT, I'd always had them pegged down as poor in a TTT, but by today's performance their riders are in good shape and looking to get something from this week.

[Darran]

Re: Cycling 2012 Surprised you overlooked Cav I thought he looked pretty good in the TTT yesterday and was desperate to get the first win for both Sky and whilst wearing the WC jersey under his belt. Didnt realise there was betting on this what price was Cav to win the stage? Given the way he won and the fact he said there is much more to come he looks like he will be unstoppable again.

[Leadbelly]

Re: Cycling 2012 He was the favourite at 2.75 I think on Bet365 for the stage, second favourite was Boonen at ~5 for comparison. He did look better in the TTT, but I was thinking it's easier to look good over 12km or whatever it was than it is over 120km +. But yeah not the best of starts for me this season - King Midas in Reverse. Still think Denis G might be in with a shout of a stage, only Cav (today) and Boonen look like in much sprinting form, but I'll see what his price is before jumping in again.

[kevshat]

Re: Cycling 2012 Good to have you cycling chaps back in action for the year :ok.

[Leadbelly]

Re: Cycling 2012 Races coming thick and fast now. Tour of Oman starts tomorrow and the Volta ao Algarve begins on Wednesday. Just a quickie for the overall in Portugal. The race will probably come down to the hilltop finish on stage 3 and the TT that comprises stage 5, but the other three stages can't be discounted. Sky have taken a strong team and they're probably targeting Wiggins/Froome for the overall, but it's not a big stretch of the imagination to see Eddy Boass (26 with Bet365) leading on time bonuses after the first couple of stages (not a large amount of sprinting talent in the race) and the finishing climb on stage 3 doesn't look that selective. Of course the fly in the ointment is a certain T. Martin and if he's in any sort of form for the TT, well there doesn't seem much point in the others turning up, but it is his first race of the season I believe whereas EBH has some race miles in his legs and is a good TTer in his own right.

[Leadbelly]

Re: Cycling 2012 Some good racing in Paris-Nice this week already and good to hear Sean Kelly's dulcet tones for the first time this year. Couple of picks for the overall at Tirreno-Adriatico which starts tomorrow. Vanendert (101 with Bet365) and Kessiakoff (101 with Bet365). Some very, very long stages in this years race which will really test the legs, but it looks like stage 5 with the MTF on Prato di Tivo will be the deciding day. Vanendert as we saw in the Tour last year can climb with the best and he showed well in a lot of the long classics last year also when working for Gilbert, so if he's in form and taking it seriously (big ifs) I can see him challenging for the top ten at least. Similarly Kessiakoff impressed me last year in the Vuelta and in form should be able to stick around in the steeper bits and pick up a few places in the short TT. Form still is a bit of an unknown this early in the year, only maybe Nibali and Velits have shown much so far from the main contenders here, so worth a small punt on these outsiders.

[Leadbelly]

Re: Cycling 2012 Final stage of Paris-Nice tomorrow and it's a 9.6km TT up Col d'Eze. The overall looks like it's between Wiggins, Westra and Valverde but I'm going for Porte (21 with Bet365) for the actual stage win. He did okay in the first TT, but lost a little time on the downhill section after the climb, but I'm basing this bet on how good he looked on Mende at the end of stage 5. He set a really good pace up the climb (10%) for Wiggens and the others to follow and looked very fresh. In fact if the positions had been reveresed and Wiggens had been pacing Porte I wouldn't have been surprised if Porte would have had enough to win the stage.

[mrnice]

Re: Cycling 2012 Coral bookmaker offered a very generous 7/2 on Joaquim Rodriguez to win La Fleche Wallone. Most bookies were offering 9/4 or 5/2. 14 hours after the race, they have not paid out. :@:hope

[Cosmetic Bob]

Re: Cycling 2012 Any thoughts on the 1st major grand tour of the year Giro D'Italia Favourites are mainly italian, looks like alot of other major riders are all going for tour de france as Contador wont be in it and a few gc contenders wont wanna peak too soon before le tour so can we get another surprise like Cobo in Vuelta last year, Arroyo has been placed at 3 figure odds in recent years aswell i might wait until the team time trial on stage 4 to have a outright bet. I9 rate Rujano as the best climber in this years Giro and you may get a better price on him until after first few stages, hes currently around 10/1 Any darkhorses guys at massive odds?

[Leadbelly]

Re: Cycling 2012 Sure has been quiet this thread, hopefully with the Giro that might change. Like yourself Bob I've been looking through the GC contenders and it does look quite weak. You can almost go through every single rider and make a decent case for why they won't win - lack of experience or form, bad TTer or descender, inconsistent etc. It's a bit of a minefield. Hesjedal (51ew with Bet365) does look a bit long - he's had a good spring with some decent placings in the Ardennes classics and was showing at Catalunya and Pais Vasco. On the negative side he did pull out of Romandie last week (I think), but whether that's down to illness or was pre-planned I don't know, but 51 just looks a bit long for a guy with his recent performances in the TdF and with a strong TTT from Garmin. The big win could just be round the corner. What looks a slightly more interesting market is the Top Ten Finisher. Huzarski (16 with Bet365) from Team NetApp had a great Trentino on some horribly steep climbs, he probably would have been top 5 or 6 but got caught up in the Phinney crash on the last stage. Tschopp (21 with Bet365) had a good Giro last year finishing 16th and with no obvious GT rider in BMC will hopefully be allowed to do his own thing. Carrara (10 with Bet365) finished just behind Tschopp last year and was prominent earlier on this year in Catalunya. Small stakes as per usual.

[Cosmetic Bob]

Re: Cycling 2012 D POZZOVIVO @ 18/1 E/W Blue Square Looked at the odds last week and Pozzovivo was as short as 6/1 now you can get him at 18/1 with Blue Square, just had a look at his recent form and he did win the Giro del Trentino just two weeks ago, on stage 1 his team was 3rd in the team time trial which suggests when the team time trial next wednesday happens he might have an edge over some of the other big favs. Also he won stage 3 where he was 23 secs ahead of Szmyd, 1 min 12 over Cunego, 1 min 20 over Rujano, 1 min 40 over Kreuziger and he was also ahead of all those names in the final stage 4, so he has the climbing legs and a decent team behind him. He was 9th in the giro four years ago as a 25 year old, obviously hes alot stronger and more experienced now so you would expect him to fare alot better this year

[Leadbelly]

Re: Cycling 2012 Hardly the most exciting of starts, but I guess Phinney and Cav are just doing what was expected of them. Going to be another sprint tomorrow, so I'll have a small punt on Ferrari (41ew with Bet365). Pretty much basing it on today's performance as I haven't seen too much of him this season. He got lucky today in that he just missed the Bos crash on the last corner, but he then came from quite far back and finished very quickly in 5th just behind an out of sorts Farrar. Obviously some of the sprinters who did get caught up behind the crash will be looking to compete tomorrow (Demare, Guardini etc), but if he can improve his positioning and avoid any trouble he surely should be shorter than 41 for an each way shout.

[Leadbelly]

Re: Cycling 2012 At last some interesting racing over the past couple of stages. You still feel though that they're saving themselves for the last week. Should be a sprint finish tomorrow. There is a small kick up in the last 10km, but if anyone tries for an attack there they will need to be very strong to hold off Greenedge and Sky. Going for public enemy no.1 Mr Ferrari (41ew with Bet365) again. Yes he caused the crash which brought down Cav and numerous others the other day, but if not for that I reckon a second or third was definitely on. He's showing good speed and unless someone pushes him in a ditch I would have him much shorter than 41.

[mrnice]

Re: Cycling 2012 Hey, can you guys help me to understand this weird bet I found at Unibet. I copied and pasted it. [TABLE=class: uTableBettingHistoryClosed]

[TR=class: uTrLevel6 uBg1] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: uTableBHExpColumns] Giro 2012 - Stage 11 Giro 2012 Head to Head Number of classified riders Your bet: Single, Over 99.5 [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Does it mean a) that the winner will have a jersey number of over 99.5 or b) there will be over 99.5 classified finishers. The odds were 1.17. I thought it meant b) that there would be over 99.5 classified finishers but now I don't know. I hardly ever use Unibet and there are a number of things I don't really understand about their markets. I've e-mailed them but I don't expect a reply. Unibet are not very good like that.

[Leadbelly]

Re: Cycling 2012

Hey, can you guys help me to understand this weird bet I found at Unibet.

Well hopefully Unibet will have got back to you, but as a guess it might be a bet on the number of riders who finish in the first group and are classified as getting the same time as the winner of that stage.

[mrnice]

Re: Cycling 2012 Unibet e-mailed me back. They said it was number of riders who finished the stage. They paid out like that too. This was a massive bargain as it was 99.99% guaranteed half the field would finish on a flat stage. Yet, they paid odds of 1.17 I am convinced it was an error on their part. I think they used the wrong market title and then honoured the bets. To support my argument, today they have a very similar market today but have changed the title to "Back number of winning rider". I am sure this is what they wanted to do last time. This bet is a kind of cycling roulette.

[YohannLoss]

Re: Cycling 2012

My preview for the today's stage. Mass sprint, maybe without crash ! I hope so. I make a table to see what are the best sprinters in this Giro and especially the ones in better shape now.

Tips :

Hunter to beat JJ Haedo 2pts @2,1 Sportsbet Modolo to beat Ventoso 2pts @2,1 Nordicbet Belletti to beat Nizzolo 2pts @1,952 Pinnacle

[YohannLoss]

Re: Cycling 2012 My tips for tomorrow: Rujano to beat Pozzovivo 1pts @3,06 Pinnacle Gadret to beat Henao 2pts @2 Pinnacle

[Leadbelly]

Re: Cycling 2012 Good to see someone else posting Yohann, but what is your reasoning behind these bets? Reasoning is required in this forum - nobody expects a long essay, a line or two is usually enough, but we need to see your thinking behind the bet so we can make our own decision on whether to follow you on it or not. It doesn't matter if your english isn't so good - just stick it into google translate and it will be fine. Good luck with the bets.

[Leadbelly]

Re: Cycling 2012

Like yourself Bob I've been looking through the GC contenders and it does look quite weak. You can almost go through every single rider and make a decent case for why they won't win - lack of experience or form, bad TTer or descender, inconsistent etc. It's a bit of a minefield. Hesjedal (51ew with Bet365) does look a bit long - he's had a good spring with some decent placings in the Ardennes classics and was showing at Catalunya and Pais Vasco. On the negative side he did pull out of Romandie last week (I think), but whether that's down to illness or was pre-planned I don't know, but 51 just looks a bit long for a guy with his recent performances in the TdF and with a strong TTT from Garmin. The big win could just be round the corner.

Bit nerve wracking the past few days, but finally a winner from me for this year's thread.

[mrnice]

Re: Cycling 2012 Dauphine starting this weekend. Should be lots of betting action and some very good pointers to the Tour. If Wiggins wants to win it, he will. It may not be on his list of priorities. Cadel Evans will be trying not to win it if possible. He has a thing about coming 2nd at this event! I think he is only focused on the Tour.

[Leadbelly]

Re: Cycling 2012 Some prices are up finally for other markets in the Tour. Not all teams have finalised their teams yet though, so some bets may run the risk of being over before the race starts. One team that hasn't selected their final nine riders yet is Astana and I see that Kessiakoff (51 with Bet365) is available at a crazy price for a top ten finish. He impressed me with his consistency in the Vuelta last year until he got a touch of food poisoning in the final week which scuppered his chances of a possible top five. Now he hasn't exactly lit up the cycling world so far this year, but he did spring back to prominence with his TT in the TdS and that bodes well for the 100km of TTing in the Tour. Obviously Brajkovic will be the Astana team leader, but Kessiakoff gives them a second option. Now fingers crossed that he gets selected.

[Leadbelly]

Re: Cycling 2012

Some prices are up finally for other markets in the Tour. Not all teams have finalised their teams yet though, so some bets may run the risk of being over before the race starts. One team that hasn't selected their final nine riders yet is Astana and I see that Kessiakoff (51 with Bet365) is available at a crazy price for a top ten finish. He impressed me with his consistency in the Vuelta last year until he got a touch of food poisoning in the final week which scuppered his chances of a possible top five. Now he hasn't exactly lit up the cycling world so far this year, but he did spring back to prominence with his TT in the TdS and that bodes well for the 100km of TTing in the Tour. Obviously Brajkovic will be the Astana team leader, but Kessiakoff gives them a second option. Now fingers crossed that he gets selected.

...and (barring any last minute crashes or illnesses) he has been picked for the team. Unfortunately his price on Bet365 has dropped down now to 18, so if you didn't get him on earlier then any value has probably gone, but if you can get him elsewhere for over 30 he might still be worth a small punt.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling 2012 Bradley Wiggins is just way too short IMO. As impressive as he's been this season, as strong as his team is and as well as the route suits him, I still can't justify the odds. I think the strength of his team, his form this season and the way the route plays into his time trialling strengths is causing the market to over-favour him -- not to mention the fact he's British and almost every big name Brit in a big event is under-priced. As there are only 3 Mountain Top Finishes, all three of those stages are going to be filled with attacks, as the field will need to get time on Wiggins and Evans. Personally, I think Wiggins still hasn't proven himself in these multi-mountain stages, and even when he finished 4th a few years back, I still remember him cracking on the 2nd last mountain of a stage. Evans of course is the defending champion and IMO the true favourite. He's a very steady climber and supremely good in the ITT. Most of all, he's got the experience of winning the tour. All factors which I think make him a worthy favourite. That said though, I'm still not jumping on anybody at 3.50 to win a 3 week event unless his name is Alberto Contador. Which leads me to my main bet of the event: Robert Gesink 34 Betfair This is a bet with high value and one I am very keen on this year. He doesn't have the proven experience of a rider like Evans, but the odds here more than make up for that. Gesink is a proper tour rider in that he builds each season around the Tour. In the past he has really struggled and lost big chunks in the time trial, and I think this history is causing these odds. What I don't think the market is factoring in is just how much the young dutchman has worked on his time trial position and improved. Over 34km in the Tour de Suisse, he lost just 25 seconds to Fabian Cancellara. In the Amgen ToC, he lost just 39s to Zabriskie over 30km. Gesink's form in the tour I believe will be even stronger than in those recent events as this is what he is building his season around, and I think makes him a super dangerous rider. He's a better climber than Wiggins, and potentially could be better than Evans too. We've not yet seen the best of Robert Gesink in a Tour de France, and I think this is a great situation to back him -- no Contador, no Schleck, a false favourite in Wiggins. Evans of course is a deserved favourite but otherwise I think the field is weaker than it's been in ages. Combine that with the factor that Gesink has unseen potential that could be realized this year and I think he's supreme value.