Cycling 2012

[Darran]

Re: Cycling 2012 Menchov back into 6th in GC.

[Darran]

Re: Cycling 2012 But we are hardly talking about a rider under the radar here. I think it was a pretty unique mistake and they will be much more careful from now on.

[best mate]

Re: Cycling 2012 Tomorrow's sprint looks tailor made for Cavendish again and 11/10 is the best price on show. Goss at 8/1 each way is double the price of Greipel when in my mind there's little between the two of them. To win again, everything will have to go right again for Cavendish and that could mean also doing it without a lead out Sky train. Of course his exceptional talent may see him through but I'm going to risk some small each ways because anything can happen in these bunch sprints. I'm avoiding Kittel until I'm sure he's over his stomach problems and venturing further down the book and am going to take up the juicy prices on offer for Alessandro Petacchi, Mark Renshaw, JJ Haedo and Tyler Farrar, all of whom showed something during Monday's 2nd Stage, finishing close up. These are still exceptional sprinters and are not just here to cruise around the roads of France. Realistically, they know their chance of any Tour success will be a stage win and a single one at that. All .25 each way Alessandro Petacchi, 40/1 BetVictor Mark Renshaw, 40/1 Bet365 JJ Haedo, 80/1 William Hill Tyler Farrar, 50/1 Boylesports

[SnakeBg]

Re: Cycling 2012 It seems that , Morkov feel quite good in this category 4 hills.. Is there a place where i can bet for him to win the first mountain passes tomorrow ?

[antogz]

Re: Cycling 2012 I was lucky enough to be on Sagan myself, this isn't the first time bookies ******. I remember in 2009 at the Tour the 6th stage into Barcelone, Hushovd was priced up at 16/1 to win a stage that looked pancake flat. Cavendish, Ciolek, Freire etc were priced ahead of him. It was an uphill finish of about 300 metres at 5 or 6 %, the layers seemed to overlook this. Needless to say Hushovd romped home. They are expecting strong winds tomorrow which should be fun. Its hard to look beyond Cavendish but the price is very skimpy. A breakaway might have a chance to stay away. Greipel had the perfect lead out and still couldn't do it. I'd rather be on Goss at 8/1 with Ladbrokes. He looked to be coming fast at the end in stage 2. It looked to me that he completely missed timed his sprint, i'd rather be on him that Gripel at double his odds Best mate has Haedo above and he could be in with a right chance at those odds. I don't think Kittel will be up to much tomorrow so i think his team mate Veelers at 80/1 with VC is overpriced. He looked the best of the rest on Monday so he has the form. 3 pts e/w Goss 8/1 Ladbrokes 1 pt e/w Veelers 80/1 VC

[Darran]

Re: Cycling 2012 Two things for me. One if it turns into a normal sprint then Cav, Griepal and Goss looked a fair way clear of everyone else so it seems pointless backing anyone of the other sprinters. Two if the winds hit then we could see the race blown to pieces and then its up to pot luck if the person you have backed is in the front group or not. I suspect given how strong Sky are that Cav will be in any front group but he is on the short side to be backing. Might play in running depending on what happens.

[Darran]

Re: Cycling 2012 Taken some of the 6/4 on Betfair available to small stakes on Cav to finish the Tour. Everything he has said in the press and on Twitter suggests he will finish the Tour thus only a crash or illness will cause him to quit in my view.

[Darran]

Re: Cycling 2012

It seems that ' date=' Morkov feel quite good in this category 4 hills.. Is there a place where i can bet for him to win the first mountain passes tomorrow ?[/quote'] No you wont and I suspect he might not have the legs to go on the attack for a 4th day. Hes certain to be in the jersey for a few days now as well I think.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling 2012 Anyone know what the deal is with JJ Cobo? He was 10 mins down yesterday. I know he's bad in bad form but I'm curious as to whether he's just sandbagging a bit or genuinely struggling. Not really that keen to get involved tonight. I fancy Greipel to beat Cav in a sprint soon but he's much shorter this stage and I'm a bit reluctant due to crosswinds, but will take a stab at a pro crosswinds bet: Fabian Cancellara Top 3 @ 30 Betfair (Also smaller stake on win @ 260) I remember a stage a few years back that Robbie Hunter won where Cancellara was 2nd and chastised himself for not winning. On that day Millar and Gilbert were in a break and looking good (I was on Gilbert...) until the crosswinds hit and Astana ripped the peloton to shreds. Very few sprinters survived and Cancellara with his racecraft was in the front peloton and contested the sprint. Whilst the chances of a big split are uncertain, I'm quite confident Cancellara would be crafty enough to make the first group, and given the form he's shown, would be more than up for having a go at a small bunch sprint.

[antogz]

Re: Cycling 2012 It is going to be wet at the finish today, going by the weather forcast winds are only going to be between 5 and 10 mph. I can't see any breaks in the peleton. Cobo is getting ready for the Veulta, he has no interest in the Tour. Regards Cavendish, I'd be very wary of backing him to finish the Tour. Of course he is going to come out and say he is going to finish the Tour, he couldn't say anything else. If Sagan looks to have the green jersey wrapped up by the 2nd rest day, I can't see Cav staying on. Those odds of 6/4 aren't that appealing. There is obviously a big question mark, if he was definitely going to finish it, like he said he was, he should be 5,6/1. Its obvious the layers don't believe him anyway.

[Darran]

Why is it obvious he is going to come and say he will finish the tour? He said he wasn't going to finish the giro although he did because he was so close to winning the points jersey. Look at all the evidence. He is desperate to win in Paris again, he wants to be in Paris with Wiggins in yellow, he is clearly going for green because he is point hunting at the intermediate sprints. Look at the squad announced today and all bar 1 of them is doing the tour. It all points to him finishing the tour. Sent from my HTC Desire S using PL Forum

[best mate]

Re: Cycling 2012 I've just laid Sagan for a couple of points on Betfair for the points classification, he's trading at 1.4/1.48. I just don't think he's home and hosed as yet and once the sprinters have the floor for the next few days you'd expect Cav, Greipel and Goss to have gotten close to his existing level if not surpassed him. Sagan will have to come out and do it again at least once during the latter stages where you run the risks of breakaways staying away as non GC riders go for glory. Agree with addpea, Cav will want to be around on the final Sunday, it's part and parcel of the Tour's prestige. Even if Wiggins comes up a cropper beforehand, Sky will want that final team sign off. It would be great if the points jersey goes right to the wire as well, Cav needing to win the final stage to secure it. I for one don't think Cav is that home and hosed either for the Olympics road race, but that's for another day.

[antogz]

Re: Cycling 2012 Cavendish needs to build up the points in the next few days to have any chance of holding onto the green jersey. I don't think he will, he will need about a 50 point start on Sagan after Friday, to have any chance of holding onto it. It is possible that he mightn't get another point until Saturday week after next friday. I couldn't care less to be honest whether Cav finishes the Tour or not, I just think the odds are very skinny. The Olympics is his main goal this year( he has said that in many an interview), not the green jersey or winning on the Champs- Elysees. I doubt being in Paris with Wiggins in yellow, means much to him either. Wiggins won't be in Paris in yellow anyway:)

[Darran]

Re: Cycling 2012 Have a look at the interview on the ITV website and try telling me he doesnt want to be in Paris. He wants to be a part of the team that could win the yellow jersey and as he says the finish in Paris is the most famous in cycling, he is desperate to make it 4 on the trot. Everyone around him believe he can do both. Also worth remembering that he quit the Tour in 2008 and failed to win Gold and it really annoyed him that he left the Tour early. I cant see him making the same mistake twice as much as he wants to win Gold this time. As Best Mate says he is hardly a cert for that anyway. You seem to be basing what you are writing without actually looking at what he is saying. He is very much into his history of cycling and he will want to experiance being part of a team that wins the Tour. Fair enough you dont think Wiggins will win, but I doubt we will know that for sure until after the final time trial. As for green I cant see Sagan winning another stage myself and he lost 25 points to Cav in the finish on Monday. The points are weighted in favour of the flat finishes so Cav will always have that advantage. I dont see why he needs a 50 point lead by Friday myself.

[antogz]

Re: Cycling 2012 I'm looking at the price and I just think 6/4 is way too short, i'll leave it at that. After Friday Cavendish won't see many more points. There are plenty of stages in the next 2 weeks where Sagan can pick up good points in the intermediate sprints. Looking at the profile Cavendish won't get over some of the bumps to contest these sprints, Sagan will. Even allowing for breakaways Sagan should pick up good points. Sagan will win at least one more stage.

[Darran]

Re: Cycling 2012 But you think Cav will pull out because he wants to win Gold and he has never said that is what he is going to do. Only the press have said it. I dont think its as bad as you make out as regards the intermediate sprints and although Cav might not contest all he will be able to contest a fair few. Maybe Sagan will go on the attack like Thor did a few years back to try and gain some big points. Im not convienced he will get over the big mountains though, this is the Tour and its different from any other race he has been in. If he proves me wrong then fair play to him he will have earnt it.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling 2012 You really have to ask yourself why Cav is sprinting these intermediates if he doesn't have a plan to make it to Paris. If you are definitely abandoning in week 2 and you are on a flat stage you don't waste energy sprinting for points at the intermediate sprint points. And with Sky now down a rider, I think there might be a bit of internal expectation on him to do some domestique duties.

[Darran]

Re: Cycling 2012 Spot on Crouch. Can Sky really afford to lose another man especially if he is fit and well? All the evidence suggests bar injury or illness he will be in Paris and at 6/4 I am happy to take the chance that doesnt happen.

[Leadbelly]

Re: Cycling 2012

You really have to ask yourself why Cav is sprinting these intermediates if he doesn't have a plan to make it to Paris. If you are definitely abandoning in week 2 and you are on a flat stage you don't waste energy sprinting for points at the intermediate sprint points.

I'm not so sure either way. I fancy it's more of a case of keeping their options open. With all these crashes and nervousness in the peleton it wouldn't be a huge surprise for Wiggo (or anyone else for that matter) to get injured or lose loads of time somewhere, and if that happens it will be better to have a Cav who's been chasing the intermediate sprint points and is still in the hunt for green, rather than one who's miles behind Sagan already and has zero chance of catching him up. They'll probably postpone any decisions about him going to Paris until they have to and obviously it will depend a lot as well on how he gets on in the sprints in the meantime.

[SnakeBg]

Re: Cycling 2012 With that fall today from Cavendish , green jersey surely will be on Sagan at the end.

[antogz]

Re: Cycling 2012 Heavy fall for Cav there, he must be thinking of calling it a day after that, is it worth the risk, since the Olympics are his priority.

[Darran]

Re: Cycling 2012 Chris Boardman has just said it will do him good to get round if he can. Sounds like he has hurt his shoulder so we will have to see how badly hurt he is. Look at Tony Martin though who is injured, will be wanting gold and is still riding.

[best mate]

Re: Cycling 2012 Really impressed with Veelers so far, that's two places in both sprints a record he can only share with Greipel. I'd worry backing him if Kittel is back to full health as surely he'll be riding for him. Goss doesn't look like he has the team to bring him over the line whereas Greipel certainly does. More to come from Greipel on this Tour. Thought Petacchi may show one final show of brilliance but he's not getting any younger and I think the younger riders have his measure these days. That said, he brought me a little profit today. Will be interesting to see if Cav still goes for the intermediate tomorrow. Hope he does. I'd fancy him now more for the next two stages as he wants those Tour stage wins, at 21 he's only 13 behind Mercx and should get past that record over the next 3/4 years. I can't see him leaving the Tour with just a single stage win, after posting wins since 2008 of 4, 6, 5, & 5. Sagan is not that far behind the specialist sprinters either. Close up again today. 6th on Monday, 5th today and combative enough in the intermediates. I think I may have erred in laying him for the green jersey. Never mind although there's a chance if Cav does have a few good days, that price will come back out for Sagan. Barring accidents though it's looking like Cav and Greipel filling out 2 places in the sprints to come with just one place up for grabs. I wouldn't at all be surprised if before the Tour is out Sagan is able to nick a place in one of the flat sprint days.

[Darran]

Re: Cycling 2012 Think you were unlucky with the Cav crash as regards your lay and it would have meant Sagan would have finished 6th. He wont gain a place on a flat sprint as I suspect he will get worse not better as the Tour goes on given he will be using plenty of energy trying to gain points on the steeper stages. Think he will always have at least 3 or 4 in front of him. If Cav is fit he will have the bit between his teeth tomorrow. Cant believe any cyclist will worry about crashing as if they did they wouldnt bother racing in the first place. Seems to me a bit like a jump jockey being worried about a fall. They are going to happen as its the nature of the sport.

[Darran]

Re: Cycling 2012 Cav is fine and he continues tomorrow. Eisel needed stitches to his cut just above his eye.

[antogz]

Re: Cycling 2012

I was lucky enough to be on Sagan myself, this isn't the first time bookies ******. I remember in 2009 at the Tour the 6th stage into Barcelone, Hushovd was priced up at 16/1 to win a stage that looked pancake flat. Cavendish, Ciolek, Freire etc were priced ahead of him. It was an uphill finish of about 300 metres at 5 or 6 %, the layers seemed to overlook this. Needless to say Hushovd romped home. They are expecting strong winds tomorrow which should be fun. Its hard to look beyond Cavendish but the price is very skimpy. A breakaway might have a chance to stay away. Greipel had the perfect lead out and still couldn't do it. I'd rather be on Goss at 8/1 with Ladbrokes. He looked to be coming fast at the end in stage 2. It looked to me that he completely missed timed his sprint, i'd rather be on him that Gripel at double his odds Best mate has Haedo above and he could be in with a right chance at those odds. I don't think Kittel will be up to much tomorrow so i think his team mate Veelers at 80/1 with VC is overpriced. He looked the best of the rest on Monday so he has the form. 3 pts e/w Goss 8/1 Ladbrokes 1 pt e/w Veelers 80/1 VC

Veelers gets me the place money anyway, and as someone else said, he has being impressive. Petacchi was also impressive today. I taught Sagan done a good sprint as well. I am very disappointed in Goss and Green Edge, I taught they would be doing a lot better. Cavendish was in hard luck today, but he was a bit far back for my liking. Onto tomorrow, it looks like just before the KM banner are a few nasty corners and then a drag to the finish at 2.8 %. Cavendish is favourite again but way too short for me. It is only a small drag, but have my doubts he can win it. Greipel is too short as well,as the e/w bet to nothing is gone. I like the look of Sagan at 14/1 with Ladbrokes. Granted it is only a small pull to the finish, but he will be suited to it more than anyone else. That bend at the 1k will slow the speeds down which also be in his favour. He matched Goss the whole way to the line today as well, which is impressive. I'm going to give Veelers another go at 40/1 with bet 365. He was very impressive today, got himself in a good position and is worth another shot. Cancellera at 125/1 with bet 365 is my other pick. This finish should suit as well and he might try something from a bit out. 3pts e/w Sagan 14/1 Ladbrokes 1.5 pt e/w Veelers 40/1 bet 365 1pt e/w Cancellara 125/1 bet 365

[Leadbelly]

Re: Cycling 2012

I'm on Veelers as well (41 ew with Bet365). Doesn't look to have the speed to challenge the real quick guys, but his skill as a lead out is getting him into good positions and another placing is a real possibility. The danger is of course that Kittel is going to be recovered and Veelers will go back to leading him out, but according to the Argos-Shimano doctor although Kittel is getting a bit better he still isn't able to eat entirely the way they want him to while out on the road. Veelers himself says "On Thursday we are going to try again. I keep coming closer and closer. Maybe we can go for the win. At least that's our goal. Winning is a dream" . So it looks like the price for Kittel at 34 should be much higher and the price for Veelers correspondingly should be a bit shorter.

[best mate]

Re: Cycling 2012 We'll know a lot about Cavendish's intentions for this Tour if he pursues today's intermediate sprint as he has been doing so far. Don't think there's much between Greipel and Goss if, and it's a big if, Goss can get his team working as Greipel's have done for both sprints so far. The 11s for him is the best value so far for him and I'm almost tempted. He and his team weren't helped by the crash either. My head has to rule my heart though and I think Cav will be too strong yet again. Going to have some more small interests which will scupper if we get a Cav/Goss/Greipel top 3 in any order as we did earlier in the week. However, it rarely goes to plan and the value on the others gets better and better. Going to stick my neck out and nominate Renshaw, Farrar & Haedo. Dropping Petacchi as he had every chance yesterday and probably deserves yesterday's 2nd mostly to the crash. Mark Renshaw, 80/1 Boylesports, 0.25 e/w Tyler Farrar, 50/1 general, 0.25 e/w JJ Haedo, 80/1 Boylesports, 0.25 e/w

[best mate]

Re: Cycling 2012 Dan Martin has started a daily report from the Tour in the Irish Times. Similar to what Nicholas Roche has been doing for the last few years in the Irish Independent. These updates give us armchair cyclists a really good picture of what it's like to be doing this day by day. Do any of the UK papers have anything similar? http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/sport/2012/0705/1224319426360.html

[Darran]

Re: Cycling 2012 Kittel has gone which isnt a surprise so it will all be on Veelers for the rest of the Tour. BM as far as I know no paper in Britain has a daily report. I think papers are still catching on how popular cycling is in this country to be honest.