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Xtc12

Short Priced Favs

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On 3/12/2020 at 9:27 PM, Xtc12 said:

Coole Well 13.55 Fakenham 26 Pts Win @ 6\4 (bog)

2nd -  led into start, led 2nd, clear with one other after 2 out, ridden and headed approaching last, kept on one pace

Finished Table :

image.png.c33b3ce60a2e9f0cbb79b150253a715b.png

Average Stake : 10.38 Pts

Well thank God that the end of Cheltenham has arrived and I can put this to bed for another 8 months or for good. 

The number of winners this year was the 2nd worse over the eleven years only beaten by 2012\13 (52), which was the only other year not to show a profit. The loss this year blew the loss of 2012\13 ( -1.04) out of the water.  The Strike Rate for this year turned out to be the lowest (by 0.03%) from 2018\19 which had a P on I of 2.4%.

The consecutive losses of 5 equalled the years 2016\17 and 2018\19, which have been the highest.

The wheels seem to come off from the 12th January when Paul Townend was beaten on Blackbow. Over the next 12 days I had one winner (4 non - runners).

Jockey - wise with 3 or more runners:

R.Power 100% from 3, A.Coleman 80% from 5, B.Geraghty 75% from 4, N De Boinville 71% from 7, P.Townend 70% from 10, Joshua Moore 67% from 3, B.Hughes 60% from 5, D.maxwell 60% from 5, D.Jacob 20% from 5 :@ , R.Johnson 0% from 4 :puke

Overall Table since 2009\10 :

image.png.db641d88784146402892a2bb59b06455.png

Well overall still have a healthy profit. Thanks to everyone that looked in and to anybody that commented. Apologies to anybody that was mad enough to follow the thread.

Wondering if anybody can check on odds - on favs, has the strike rate dropped over the last couple of years.

Edited by Xtc12
Correct Tables

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3 hours ago, Xtc12 said:

 

Wondering if anybody can check on odds - on favs, has the strike rate dropped over the last couple of years.

Hello Xtc12

I have used HRB for your request here (can also do Proform too)

Criteria used -

image.png.b6a4d3535825099458a64fd8d87befa5.png


Results by Year -image.png.9f0544a617883ccbddf39d61942fa9b4.png

Hope this helps.

 

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18 minutes ago, Xtc12 said:

@skylark2009 Thanks for the quick response. From your stats 2020 had a SR of 64.08%.

On calculating my SR just for 2020 it was 53.22 % down a whopping 11% on your stats.

 

I should point out that 2020 figure is only for the first quarter of 2020 only and doesn't contain all of the 2019/2020 NH season. I'm not sure if HRB can show the results effectively across seasons (only years).

I'll have a further dabble with it.

Results across the years seem fairly consistent though and the two blips you stated in your post for seasons 2012/2013 and 2018/2019 could well be reflected in the lower strike rates for those years (2012 and 2018) in the results from HRB.

I've always enjoyed this thread as it shows that value (therefore a profit) can be found at the shorter odds.
 

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Excellent analysis Skylark. I think it shows what an excellent starting point odds on favourites are for making profits. By taking early prices and using some selectivity I have been able to make some nice profits this season, albeit March has been a bit disappointing.

It also confirms that UK races are better than Irish races (the current year withstanding). The over-round in Irish races always seems to be higher. I'm not sure if Irish punters are less value conscious than their UK counterparts.

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13 hours ago, Xtc12 said:

2nd -  led into start, led 2nd, clear with one other after 2 out, ridden and headed approaching last, kept on one pace

Finished Table :

image.png.9b1b6212cbba46808c11de5ceebef6ad.png

Average Stake : 9.04 Pts

 

Hi XTC, probably the ex accountant in me but I've got this year's loss at -155.49.

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11 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

Hi XTC, probably the ex accountant in me but I've got this year's loss at -155.49.

@MCLARKE had a quick check and yes it is the ex accountant coming out in you. The loss is actually worse than that  -179.85.

I had moved the answer to the sum in Excel but never updated the cell location, thanks and deepest apologies.

From the 22nd Nov. to the 11th Jan. I had a profit of 20.17

From the 12th Jan. to the 13th March I had a grand loss of 200.02

Giving me a total loss of -179.85

Happy with this before I change tables above.

 

 

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4 hours ago, Xtc12 said:

@MCLARKE had a quick check and yes it is the ex accountant coming out in you. The loss is actually worse than that  -179.85.

I had moved the answer to the sum in Excel but never updated the cell location, thanks and deepest apologies.

From the 22nd Nov. to the 11th Jan. I had a profit of 20.17

From the 12th Jan. to the 13th March I had a grand loss of 200.02

Giving me a total loss of -179.85

Happy with this before I change tables above.

 

 

Oh dear, still overall you are still showing a decent profit so that's the main thing.

The principle of the system is excellent although as I have said before I'm not a lover of staking plans, the losing runs will always catch you out in the end.

Still I assume that you will start with a clean slate next season so the damage is limited.

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