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Xtc12

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23 hours ago, Xtc12 said:

Dalila Du Seuil 14.20 Warwick 1 Pt Win @ 2\5 (bog)

Fell - tracked leaders hampered and fell at the second

Red Force One 14.10 Stratford 4 Pts Win @ 4\7 (bog)

Useful handicapper on the Flat who showed plenty of ability when fourth in Adonis Juvenile Hurdle at Kempton (16f, good to firm) on NH debut 16 days ago. Looks sure to improve and is the one to beat.

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On 3/10/2019 at 10:21 PM, Xtc12 said:

Red Force One 14.10 Stratford 4 Pts Win @ 4\7 (bog)

3rd -  chased leader until 4th, chased leaders, ridden in 3rd and struggling after 2 out, no chance with 1st 2

Lady Cylla 14.35 Sedgefield 5 Pts Win @ 4\7 (bog)

rom a good jumping family and back on track when second to Miranda (won again since) at Ludlow (15.8f) last month. This longer trip will suit and she’s the one to beat in receipt of weight. 

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22 hours ago, Xtc12 said:

Lady Cylla 14.35 Sedgefield 5 Pts Win @ 4\7 (bog)

3rd -  in touch, chased leaders 6th, effort before 2 out, stayed on same pace

Altior 15.30 Cheltenham 6 Pts Win @ 2\5 (bog)

Outstanding performer who is unbeaten in 17 starts over hurdles/fences, including wins at the last 3 Festivals. Had 7 lengths to spare over Min in this race 12 months ago and can't oppose. 

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On 3/12/2019 at 11:17 PM, Xtc12 said:

Altior 15.30 Cheltenham 6 Pts Win @ 2\5 (bog)

1st @ 2\5 -  jumped left at few times, tracked leader, mistake 7th (water), led after 3 out, ridden after 2 out, headed last, edged left into rival and led again flat, stayed on well and asserting towards finish

Mega Yeats 13.45 Market Rasen 6 Pts Win @ 1\9 (bog)

Useful in bumpers and made the perfect start over hurdles at Wetherby (19.7f) on Boxing Day. Better form when third in listed company and this is a simple-looking task. 

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Last day for another year with a small profit made.

American Tom 13.20 Fakenham 6 Pts Win @ 5\6 (bog)

Useful form for Willie Mullins over fences. Sold out of that yard cheaply in September but looks to have been found a good opening on first start for new trainer after 10 months off. Hooded. 

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23 hours ago, Xtc12 said:

American Tom 13.20 Fakenham 6 Pts Win @ 5\6 (bog)

2nd - led, 4 lengths clear 3 out, ridden and headed approaching last, stayed on

Well unfortunately couldn't finish with a winner, so after 99 bets we stand as follows :

 

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A few facts on 18\19:

59 Winners led to the lowest strike rate of 59.6%  (2.3% lower than 12\13)

This years profit is the 3rd lowest and the 4th lowest P on I.

The 5 losers between 8th Mar, and 12th Mar was the equal highest number of consecutive losers with 2016\17.

The most consecutive winners over the time was 7 (3rd lowest) brought to an end by Southfield Stone (Lorcan Williams) on 4th February..

The biggest odds winner @ 3.0 was Le Precieux (J.Moore) 3rd Jan and Song Saa (Mr N George) 5th March.

The lowest odds winner @ 1.06 was Louis Vac Pouch (J.McGrath) 26th Feb and  Poppy Kay (A.Coleman) 1st March.

49 different jockeys, three with the most rides Barry Geraghty 10, 6 winners 60%, N De Boinville 7,6 winners 86%, Harry Cobden and G.Sheehan 5, 3 winners 60% and Aidan Coleman 5,2 winners 40%. 

Of the jockeys who had 2 or more rides D.Russell (3 rides), J.Bowen (3 rides), Jack Kennedy (2 rides), Mr D.Maxwell (2 rides) all had a 100% record.

Average Stake : 9.73 Pts

Think thats it for another 8 months. Thanks to everyone who looked in since November.

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1 minute ago, MCLARKE said:

Thanks, very interesting. Out of interest what is the logic behind the staking plan and does it make a profit at level stakes?

The logic behind the staking plan is, increase your stake by a point at a loss and decrease your stake with a win. The amount you decrease your stake depends on the price of the winner. You continue to do this until you make a profit and then start again.

There are another few rules thrown in but the above is the basis of the plan.

This year on the 17th December we were in profit of 20.39. It took 63 more bets before we were able to increase our profit above this which is the reason for the high stakes from the end of December till the 2nd March when Oleg won with Harry Cobden up to increase our profit to 34.12.

Think I checked this on Level stakes before and dont think it makes a profit. Will check when I get a chance.

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Thanks for the explanation.

I must admit I am always dubious about staking plans.

I don't think that long term a staking plan can turn a losing system at level stakes into a profitable system.

I suspect that at some stage you will have a losing run that will wipe out all your profits but I am open to be proved wrong.

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@MCLARKE Yes you maybe right about staking plans but you are not guaranteed a profit on level stakes either. Yes with a staking plan you would possibly lose your profit quicker.

Read a good piece on RFO recently from Richard Birch a professional punter. Since the 1st january 2019 he has laid out approximately £80,000 for a return of £80,030. I know people will say that he mustn't be a good punter, but unfortunately we are all not in the JP McManus league but we will all carry on to make our dream.

Will try and get the level stakes for you asap. Thanks for the input.

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