Jump to content
** March Poker League Result : =1st Bridscott, =1st Like2Fish, 3rd avongirl **
** Cheltenham Tipster Competition Result : 1st Old codger, 2nd sirspread, 3rd Bathtime For Rupert **

Short Priced Favs


Xtc12

Recommended Posts

1st @ 4\6 yesterday

Killaloan 16.00 Taunton 10 Pts Win @ 10\11 (bog)

Showed fair form in a trio of Irish Flat maidens for Johnny Murtagh in 2021. Off 19 months/had wind op and noted doing good late work when third in a Plumpton novice (15.9f) in December. Still looked a work-in-progress at Wincanton 3 weeks ago and he's probably the one to beat. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1st @ 10\11 Tuesday

Samuel Spade 14.15 Huntingdon 10 Pts Win @ 1\5 (bog)

Fair handicapper on Flat (stays 11.5f) for David O'Meara who was sold for 47,000 gns and took well to this new discipline at the first attempt when scoring at Kempton. Runner-up over C&D next time and should get back to winning ways. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1st @ 1\5 today

Buckhorn Rocco 14.40 Exeter 10 Pts Win @ 2\9 (bog)

Bumper winner who has shown plenty of promise when reaching the frame in 2 novice hurdles this winter. Likely has more to offer and this looks a very good opportunity for him. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2nd yesterday, disaster, but still in profit with three weeks to go, its going to be tight

Endless Escape 13.43 Newcastle 11 Pts Win @ 1\2 (bog)

Has completed a rare novice hurdle hat-trick, striking at Ffos Las 33 days ago, refusing to lie down in the dash for home as she successfully conceded 5 lb to an odds-on favourite who'd tried graded company the time before. Step up in trip here sure to suit and another win beckons. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1st @ 8\11 yesterday

Tout Est Permis 16.00 Fontwell 11 Pts Win @ 5\2 (bog)

Smart Irish chaser in his prime for Noel Meade. Nothing like so good lately and has something to prove after a couple of non-completions (reportedly lost action start at Sandown 10 days ago). Should find this easier at least. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4th today

Bass Rock 14.15 Ayr 12 pts Win @ 5\4 (bog)

 Useful hurdler who improved to make a winning chase debut in good style at Carlisle (2m) on return in November. Matched that when only narrowly denied in 19f Wetherby novice handicap since and remains open to improvement in this sphere. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4th today

Great Heart'Jac 14.00 Leicester 13 Pts Win @ 4\9 (bog)

Irish point winner who made a successful start in this sphere in C&D handicap in December. Similar form when second in another small field at Huntingdon since. Good chance of another win.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1st @ 4\7 today, squeaky bum time with 17 days left

Toothless 14.40 Wincanton 13 Pts Win @ 1\4 (bog)

Fair form in French juvenile hurdles but looked an altogether different proposition when routing the opposition on debut for Paul Nicholls in 2m Fakenham maiden hurdle on New Year's Day. Reportedly scoped dirty next time and can quickly resume winning ways.

image.png.614552ea5b926ca2a82b9d4bb36e932a.png

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1st @ 2\7 yesterday ..... this could make or break this years system :hope

Hidden Heroics 15.00 Ludlow 13 Pts Win @ 2\1 (bog)

Dual winner over hurdles whose form has taken off sent chasing, winning both starts (small fields at Exeter/Cheltenham) by wide margins. Should make a bold bid for the hat-trick. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1st @ 2\5 today ..... 13 days to go !

Saint Sam 14.00 Leopardstown 15 Pts Win @ 4\9 (bog)

1 win from 3 runs this season. Evens, failed to justify strong support when 10¾ lengths fifth of 8 to Blazing Khal in Boyne Hurdle at Navan (21f, good to soft) 3 weeks ago. Major claims in this small-field scenario. 

image.png.0c7e81295a31799413684320ac91c5f2.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2nd yesterday -  aaaaaahhhh

Glory Bridge 17.00 Wetherby 16 Pts Win @ 4/6 (bog)

Bumper winner who made steady progress over hurdles, making his effort earlier than ideal (collared late on having been 6 lengths ahead at last) when second to a subsequent dual winner (pair clear) on Doncaster handicap debut 25 days ago. Raised 5 lb but still looks ahead of his mark.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4th yesterday :@

Authorised Speed 13.15 Sandown 17 Pts Win @ 2/7 (bog)

Useful bumper winner who landed his first 2 starts over hurdles, overcoming a bad mistake at the last when doubling his tally over C&D in December. Clearly not himself when fifth in the Tolworth back here since but given a break ahead of this and he remains a very bright prospect. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1st @ 2\7 today ..... looking like a loss but still possible, could do without this one tomorrow.

Thomas darby 13.20 Catterick 17 Pts Win @ 1\33 (bog)

Won the Long Distance Hurdle at Newbury in 2021/22 but was a well-beaten third in that corresponding race in November. Back over fences and right back to his best when landing 4-runner handicap at Ayr a month ago. Should win this by a long way. 

Edited by Xtc12
Link to comment
Share on other sites

NR today

Dare to Shout 16.00 Carlisle 17 Pts Win @ 2\5 (bog)

Successful on last of 3 starts in Irish points and built on hurdling debut promise when quickening clear from a previous winner at Kelso (16.2f, good to soft) 20 days ago. Open to further improvement and well up to defying a penalty. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Another Non Runner :zzz

Impose Toi 13.50 Exeter 17 Pts Win @ 2\7 (bog)

Half-brother to useful hurdler/chaser Floueur and showed fairly useful form when winning both bumper starts in France for Mlle D. Mele. Lost his unbeaten record sent hurdling with a tongue strap left off after 9 months off at Ludlow in January but still shaped well and looks potentially useful. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Winner @ 1\3 with a 15p Rule 4 .... hanging in there, going to be very close, 7 days to go. Need to go on a run of 8 in a row :hope

Fern's Lock 16.55 Gowran Park 17 Pts Win @ 1\3 (bog)

Promising sort. 2 wins from 2 runs this season. Evens, won 6-runner hunter chase at Thurles (24.7f, soft) 48 days ago, impressively. Difficult to oppose. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1st @ 1\3 today ..... 6 @ 2\5 will get the job done ;)

Fancy Girl 17.27 Naas 17 Pts Win @ 1\2 (bog)

Twice-raced winner in bumpers. 7/2, 11¾ lengths fourth of 7 to Fun Fun Fun in Grade 2 mares bumper at Leopardstown (16f, good to soft) 35 days ago. The one to beat. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It was a hard to do and it took a Mullins horse to probably bust the bubble.

3rd today

Bo Zenith 14.05 Stratford 18 Pts Win @ 4\11 (bog)

Winner of a newcomers' race on sole start in France last spring and duly left his odds-on Sandown failure well behind when scoring in pretty decisive fashion at Haydock (15.6f). Promises to be suited by this stiffer test and will prove hard to beat. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2nd yesterday - last day of a terrible year

Ultimate Optimist 17.10 Down Royal 19 Pts Win @ 4\7 (bog)

7/4, won 13-runner hunter chase at Limerick (22.6f, heavy) on NH debut 80 days ago, easily. Should improve and is likely to take all the beating. 

** Will come back and digest after todays racing. :puke

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1st yesterday @ 6\5, to make things better than it was for this year.

image.png.c43bfa1e2c74007bb2129853456b5d51.png

So to have a look at the table in detail.

The number of winners was the 3rd lowest in the 14 years. Total Won is down in 8th place, which means that the loss is the third time it has occurred but it is well below the disaster of 2019/2020.

The Strike Rate 62.37% was the fifth lowest and was 2.35% lower than the average. Was probably about 6 winners short.

Usually I keep an eye on the jockeys, even though it does not effect my selection. For those that had 3 or more rides :

image.png.cc10249ba7bd22c81401fab21076339c.png

As can be seen above Paul Townend is the man you want on your odds -on selection and lo and behold B.Hughes, Champion Jockey is the man to bypass. 

Overall - 14 years

image.png.3c34a92e5dc71bd1ce81ef29c5c7c73a.png

Still in profit, so will be back in November.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Always interesting to view, I admire your persistence

My threads on odds on selections are not going well, I am managing to beat SP by 7% but SP returns have been a lot lower than in previous years.

I was 15 points down after 3 months but 4 points up in the next 5 so there is still hope.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
×
  • Create New...