Pep004

I expect both Arsenal and Manchester United winning their matches. I've been always a bit doubtful about "old fashion" coaches and even though he made some big things in EPL, or maybe even the biggest, I think that he won't save Fulham. Well, actually I think that he was a pretty wrong choice for Fulham, but well...
Is anyone here close to Fulham? How are training sessions etc.? Because I think they have a pretty decent squad... 

Horrible news for Cardiff though, with situations of Emi.. 

Horrible news for Cardiff though, with situations of Emi.. 

Horrible news for Cardiff though, with situations of Emi.. 

The atmosphere in the club is horrible... Cannot believe what happened. 

The atmosphere in the club is horrible... Cannot believe what happened. 

Horrible news for Cardiff though, with situations of Emi.. 

Southampton v Everton
If I had to choose 1 team this weekend to bet against, it would be Everton. They are so inconsistent, show poor away form, and have stagnated a little (in my opinion) under SIlva. Is Silva all that good? Hmmmm, jury is out.
When looking at previous results I tend to ignore the anomalies. If you remove the 1-5 away win at Burnley, Everton don't look so clever, scoring just 4 goals in 7 away games. I really don't think they can win here, but the Saints will also struggle. However, I think the new manager makes the difference here.
I do like the over 2.5 goals here for 2 reasons;
1) Two evenly matched teams that will both reckon they have a winning chance, will create an open game.
2) Saints are finding 1st half goals in recent home league games. Early goals open up games.
I would be going over 2.5 goals here, but if I was backing a winner, I would be going Saints and over 2.5 (based on head to head Saints 4 wins in 5 in this fixture.)
 
Saints HOME WIN & OVER 2.5 goals odds 4.25
 

Angers is a very strange team... it's hard to say what kind of team will come on the pitch. As they lost Toko Ekambi, who scored a majority of their goals, they found themselves in problems... We will see after a few rounds. But yes, from what they've shown so far, they could be worried...

@StevieDay1983 Dijon let us down... from betting perspective, true. But otherwise, they were a better side than Caen, but Caen is one of those team, or we could say "the team" when it comes to being lucky this season. Incredible! Have you seen their first goal? If not, you should... you'll be speechless.  

Iceland v Belgium
Posted on September 11, 2018 Footalyct Betting suggestion: Belgium -1,5 @2,09 Pinnacle
Besides France, I think that Belgium has one of the “richest” national teams in Europe when it comes to depth in squads. Coach Martinez has an extremely good squad, with several very experienced key players and a bunch of young, enormous talents. They will use their preferred 3-4-3 formation with Meunier and Carrasco on flanks giving support to Mertens and Hazard. Truth is that every team would miss Kevin de Bruyne, who is injured at this moment, but they still look like a very dreadful team. Martinez has a huge joker in his hands with Batshuayi who seems to be in a very good form. Iceland on the other hand, well… it’s just my opinion, but I have feeling that they will struggle a bit from now on. They’ve never been as high as they are right now, and people seemed to be very used to that. In my opinion, it’s still a surprise and in a long run, they won’t be that high on FIFA’s table. They obviously have problems with attackers right now as they miss Gudmundsson and Finbogasson. Besides them, Hamren cannot count on midfielder Gunnarsson, so new coach isn’t really in an easy position as he’s missing three important players. A lot depends on Sigurdsson, but I think that except from free-kicks or some incredible shots from distance, they cannot seriously threaten this Belgium side.
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Norway – Cyprus
Posted on September 6, 2018 Footalyct Betting suggestion: Norway first half -0,5 @1,909 Pinnacle
Bet on Norway is practically a public bet today, but I am not that comfortable with taking high handicaps on the Scandinavian team. In my opinion, now in 2018, all countries (or let’s say majority), even if their players aren’t that famous, aren’t playing in top5 leagues, etc… all of them are capable of positioning well and simply make it harder for their opponent. With a bit of daily form and luck, they might have a player or two who will make difference in attack or simply use the mistake of the opponent and when those small teams are 0-1 in front, then it’s extremely hard to overcome the result. Norway is one of the favorites in the group and it’s important for them to start with 3 points, especially as they are playing against the biggest underdog in the group. Truth is, that Norway possesses way more quality, much more experiences, their players have played more tough matches in careers, they are on the excellent run (winning last 4 international matches) and it looks that since they made a change in the leaderboard, they are back on solid track. As they didn’t participate on WC, I think that they will take this league pretty seriously but as I said above… teams like Cyprus can make an upset, and regarding the odds, I prefer to take Norway to win first half here because the longer match will stay at 0-0, more nervous the match will be and everything can happen then… If Norway will beat Cyprus with 2 goals difference as everyone is expecting, then I think that they will be up-front already in the first half.
https://footalyct.com/norway-cyprus/

Norway – Cyprus
Posted on September 6, 2018 Footalyct Betting suggestion: Norway first half -0,5 @1,909 Pinnacle
Bet on Norway is practically a public bet today, but I am not that comfortable with taking high handicaps on the Scandinavian team. In my opinion, now in 2018, all countries (or let’s say majority), even if their players aren’t that famous, aren’t playing in top5 leagues, etc… all of them are capable of positioning well and simply make it harder for their opponent. With a bit of daily form and luck, they might have a player or two who will make difference in attack or simply use the mistake of the opponent and when those small teams are 0-1 in front, then it’s extremely hard to overcome the result. Norway is one of the favorites in the group and it’s important for them to start with 3 points, especially as they are playing against the biggest underdog in the group. Truth is, that Norway possesses way more quality, much more experiences, their players have played more tough matches in careers, they are on the excellent run (winning last 4 international matches) and it looks that since they made a change in the leaderboard, they are back on solid track. As they didn’t participate on WC, I think that they will take this league pretty seriously but as I said above… teams like Cyprus can make an upset, and regarding the odds, I prefer to take Norway to win first half here because the longer match will stay at 0-0, more nervous the match will be and everything can happen then… If Norway will beat Cyprus with 2 goals difference as everyone is expecting, then I think that they will be up-front already in the first half.
https://footalyct.com/norway-cyprus/

Norway – Cyprus
Posted on September 6, 2018 Footalyct Betting suggestion: Norway first half -0,5 @1,909 Pinnacle
Bet on Norway is practically a public bet today, but I am not that comfortable with taking high handicaps on the Scandinavian team. In my opinion, now in 2018, all countries (or let’s say majority), even if their players aren’t that famous, aren’t playing in top5 leagues, etc… all of them are capable of positioning well and simply make it harder for their opponent. With a bit of daily form and luck, they might have a player or two who will make difference in attack or simply use the mistake of the opponent and when those small teams are 0-1 in front, then it’s extremely hard to overcome the result. Norway is one of the favorites in the group and it’s important for them to start with 3 points, especially as they are playing against the biggest underdog in the group. Truth is, that Norway possesses way more quality, much more experiences, their players have played more tough matches in careers, they are on the excellent run (winning last 4 international matches) and it looks that since they made a change in the leaderboard, they are back on solid track. As they didn’t participate on WC, I think that they will take this league pretty seriously but as I said above… teams like Cyprus can make an upset, and regarding the odds, I prefer to take Norway to win first half here because the longer match will stay at 0-0, more nervous the match will be and everything can happen then… If Norway will beat Cyprus with 2 goals difference as everyone is expecting, then I think that they will be up-front already in the first half.
https://footalyct.com/norway-cyprus/

Yesterday I said... Denmark is the worse opponent for Croatia. Today, something similar with Mexico and Brazil. They just don't like the style of Mexico... that's why I decided to skip it, but I cannot skip the other match. I see simply too big difference...
 
Btw, I still think that Tite is making a huge mistake, playing anyone else instead of Fernandinho. In my opinion, right now, he is the smartest defensive midfielder in the world. Definitely capable of making a quick transition, incredibly calm on the ball, very precise with passes and besides... he can run in the box from the second plan as well. Comparing him with Paulinho... the only thing Paulinho can do is to run in the box from the second plan. Nothing else. Slow on the ball, slow with changing direction,...
 
I won't say that Casemiro is useless in possession because that's not true. But truth is, that he is not used to be the guy, taking care of possession in midfield. He is never coming to pick up the ball in Real Madrid, he is just there to do the 1-2 with Kroos who is taking the ball deep. Therefore, if the ball isn't immediately in legs of Coutinho, there is huge lack of creativity...

In big competitions, especially in knockout phases of the tournaments, it’s pretty rare to see one team trashing their opponent, winning with 2-3 or even more goals of difference. In knockout phase on World Cups, you have only one chance, and there is no 2nd match. For this reason, plenty of high rated countries, or let’s say favorites in this case – are starting matches slow, cautious, thinking that this way is the safest way, but sometimes happens that opponent scores and then favorites find themselves in troubles, as their opponent decides to close their box with as many players as possible, and defend with everyone for the rest of the match.
For this reason, I expect (in my eyes) very highly rated Belgium, to start this match strong. Without calculations, because they had enough opportunities to see that Japan is a team, who will play if they will have a chance to play. They have some very good individuals in last third and let them space to play, would be a huge mistake. With strong midfield, very comfortable on the ball, I expect Red Devils to make a huge difference in ball possession, which will decrease the possibility of Japan scoring here. In my opinion, even though they have shown heart and some good football, Japan was pretty lucky to be here where they are. They qualified due to receiving fewer cards than Senegal. In my opinion, they got Colombia the on wrong foot (scored from the penalty, had a player more from the start of the match), then they played draw against Senegal, against who they didn’t play I don’t know how good and at the end they lost against Poland – true that without some important players, but still. On the other side, Belgium cleaned the group without any problems. They won all three matches, including the one against England with a very mixed squad. Lukaku and Hazard are back after skipping the match against England due to injuries and this Belgium will be once again complete.
Even if they don’t have experiences on a national level as a team, which are very much needed in competitions like this, I think that they are simply too good to have any kind of problems with Japan. They trashed Panama and Tunisia, and now they will face Japan who simply isn’t on the same level as they are. An individual comparison between those two teams is nonsense. Motivation will be very high for both, but I think that difference in quality is too big and I expect at least two goals of difference here. Japan will fight, that’s for sure, but I think that they won’t be able to cope with much stronger Belgium side. I see advantage not just in quality, but also in physicality. True is, that Japan surprised me in this segment of the game against a much more physical side of Senegal, but in this case… it won’t be just a brute strength, but strength in combination with football knowledge and technical abilities. Simple as it is, my suggestion is Belgium to win the match with asian handicap -1,5 with odds around 2,25.

In big competitions, especially in knockout phases of the tournaments, it’s pretty rare to see one team trashing their opponent, winning with 2-3 or even more goals of difference. In knockout phase on World Cups, you have only one chance, and there is no 2nd match. For this reason, plenty of high rated countries, or let’s say favorites in this case – are starting matches slow, cautious, thinking that this way is the safest way, but sometimes happens that opponent scores and then favorites find themselves in troubles, as their opponent decides to close their box with as many players as possible, and defend with everyone for the rest of the match.
For this reason, I expect (in my eyes) very highly rated Belgium, to start this match strong. Without calculations, because they had enough opportunities to see that Japan is a team, who will play if they will have a chance to play. They have some very good individuals in last third and let them space to play, would be a huge mistake. With strong midfield, very comfortable on the ball, I expect Red Devils to make a huge difference in ball possession, which will decrease the possibility of Japan scoring here. In my opinion, even though they have shown heart and some good football, Japan was pretty lucky to be here where they are. They qualified due to receiving fewer cards than Senegal. In my opinion, they got Colombia the on wrong foot (scored from the penalty, had a player more from the start of the match), then they played draw against Senegal, against who they didn’t play I don’t know how good and at the end they lost against Poland – true that without some important players, but still. On the other side, Belgium cleaned the group without any problems. They won all three matches, including the one against England with a very mixed squad. Lukaku and Hazard are back after skipping the match against England due to injuries and this Belgium will be once again complete.
Even if they don’t have experiences on a national level as a team, which are very much needed in competitions like this, I think that they are simply too good to have any kind of problems with Japan. They trashed Panama and Tunisia, and now they will face Japan who simply isn’t on the same level as they are. An individual comparison between those two teams is nonsense. Motivation will be very high for both, but I think that difference in quality is too big and I expect at least two goals of difference here. Japan will fight, that’s for sure, but I think that they won’t be able to cope with much stronger Belgium side. I see advantage not just in quality, but also in physicality. True is, that Japan surprised me in this segment of the game against a much more physical side of Senegal, but in this case… it won’t be just a brute strength, but strength in combination with football knowledge and technical abilities. Simple as it is, my suggestion is Belgium to win the match with asian handicap -1,5 with odds around 2,25.

It was only a few of us, thinking that Croatia can steal the first place in the group from favorized Argentinians, but that’s exactly what happened. Argentina started slow, with only a point and missed penalty against Iceland, while hopes for the first place vanished in the match against Croatia, which finished with 3-0 in favor of Croats. Players of Argentina were under big pressure against Nigeria, where they succeeded, winning and qualifying with help of Croatia. Still, the winning goal came in last quarter of match from Rojo and even though Argentinians were playing with heart in this match, giving their best, I cannot help myself, but I cannot see the level of quality in the team. Bunch of individuals, which are once again set together in a strange way. I have to admit, that I have much bigger expectations when Sampaoli was announced as the new manager, but it seems that things simply aren’t really working as they should. Biglia isn’t 100% ready, Banega is playing, but as well isn’t fully fit, while veteran Mascherano is losing lots of balls in the midfield and if he will continue playing with so many mistakes, they will find themselves in horrible position against France, who possess some very quick players…
On the other hand, I have to say that France didn’t convince me either. Without doubts, most talented squad or let’s say with the biggest depth, but as said several times, in my opinion with an average coach pulling strings from the bench. They finished group on first place, without defeat but with some very bad performances. To be honest, their group wasn’t as tough as the group of Argentina. Plenty of big stars underperformed so far, but still… team looks pretty solid in defense, pretty solid in set-pieces and still with a very poisonable forward line, which can set up a chance from nothing.
Putting all pictures together, I see a difference between those two teams not just in quality, but also in mentality and especially in self-confidence. France with 7 points, securing 1st place without sweating for real and Argentina saving their World Cup in last 10 minutes of the last match in group stages… it simply cannot be the same. True, that Argentina has Leo Messi and if he will have his day, it’s very hard to stop him, but he will be covered by some of best defenders in the world, probably best defensive midfielder when it comes for defensive duties and I think that Leo won’t see an easy match today. On the other side, the offensive line of France will be covered with from what we were able to see until now, pretty weak, unstable defensive line and with all those reasons… I suggest taking France to win with odds around 2,50.

It was only a few of us, thinking that Croatia can steal the first place in the group from favorized Argentinians, but that’s exactly what happened. Argentina started slow, with only a point and missed penalty against Iceland, while hopes for the first place vanished in the match against Croatia, which finished with 3-0 in favor of Croats. Players of Argentina were under big pressure against Nigeria, where they succeeded, winning and qualifying with help of Croatia. Still, the winning goal came in last quarter of match from Rojo and even though Argentinians were playing with heart in this match, giving their best, I cannot help myself, but I cannot see the level of quality in the team. Bunch of individuals, which are once again set together in a strange way. I have to admit, that I have much bigger expectations when Sampaoli was announced as the new manager, but it seems that things simply aren’t really working as they should. Biglia isn’t 100% ready, Banega is playing, but as well isn’t fully fit, while veteran Mascherano is losing lots of balls in the midfield and if he will continue playing with so many mistakes, they will find themselves in horrible position against France, who possess some very quick players…
On the other hand, I have to say that France didn’t convince me either. Without doubts, most talented squad or let’s say with the biggest depth, but as said several times, in my opinion with an average coach pulling strings from the bench. They finished group on first place, without defeat but with some very bad performances. To be honest, their group wasn’t as tough as the group of Argentina. Plenty of big stars underperformed so far, but still… team looks pretty solid in defense, pretty solid in set-pieces and still with a very poisonable forward line, which can set up a chance from nothing.
Putting all pictures together, I see a difference between those two teams not just in quality, but also in mentality and especially in self-confidence. France with 7 points, securing 1st place without sweating for real and Argentina saving their World Cup in last 10 minutes of the last match in group stages… it simply cannot be the same. True, that Argentina has Leo Messi and if he will have his day, it’s very hard to stop him, but he will be covered by some of best defenders in the world, probably best defensive midfielder when it comes for defensive duties and I think that Leo won’t see an easy match today. On the other side, the offensive line of France will be covered with from what we were able to see until now, pretty weak, unstable defensive line and with all those reasons… I suggest taking France to win with odds around 2,50.

Well said @waynecoyne    If you type @ and then type the username it tags people and sends them a notification. I did it for you anyway.  

Croatia -0.5 @1,80
We were able to see that there will be no easy match. Especially in the first round, where especially those well-disciplined teams, with defensive approaches, are capable of surprising much much better opponents. After all, it is only 90 minutes and everything can happen. Here, two very talented squads will meet. Nigeria has some very interesting individuals, some very physical players, capable also of running a lot, but on the other side, we have Croatia with some extremely experienced players, used to play Champions league finals almost every year and tactical advantage is the one, I think will decide the winner on this match. Comparing player to player, Croatia is without a doubt a better side, but Iran, Australia, Iceland have already shown that everything is possible. I think that in overall, odds on Croatia are too high and very valuable. I would set Croatia max at 1,60 as in my eyes they are right behind all those top favorized countries (Brazil, Germany, France, Spain). With Modrić, Rakitić, Kovačić, Badelj, etc... their midfield will be amongst the best on this tournament, they have experienced defensive line and some very good players higher on the pitch (especially Perišić). I expect, that they will get the job done here and start the World Cup with three points. As said at the start of the World Cup, I quietly expect Croatians in the first place in this group. 

Over 2,5 goals @2,28
Maybe that looks like a strange pick to someone, but let me explain why do I think that this match will go over... In the first match of Morocco, I took them as winners but they failed against Iran. Even if it sounds strange as they lost to Iran I have to admit that they played very well! Having almost 70% of possession, creating several very good chances, but they were poor at finishing. Expectations of their nation were big, as everyone knows that they have one of the most talented generations but they failed. Still, regarding the 3-3 result between Spain and Portugal, they still have chances. But to take those chances, they will need to get points from two European giants. As they are sitting at the bottom of the table, it is gonna be a must-win match for them. Portugal is considered to be a favorite, but on the first match, they didn't especially impress me. Combination of Ronaldo and De Gea brought them a big point, which was, in my opinion, undeserved. They are a decent side, they have much more than just Cristiano Ronaldo in the squad, but I still think that Morocco can mess it up against them. Why not taking Morocco +0,5 than? The answer is simple. I expect Morocco to go out and attack Portugals without any calculations. It's true, that even with the draw, they can have some chances, but they will have to beat Spain with enough goals of difference... Therefore I think, that if they fail today, they won't see the knockout phase of this tournament. I actually think that this side of Morocco can have a bigger ball possession, create more chances in 90 minutes than Portugals, but the problem will be the same as it was for Spanish team - counterattacks. Ronaldo has shown that he came on WC very determined and in very good shape and counters with him, Guedes and Bernardo will lead to goals... Therefore I like odds, given by bookmakers as they fancy under here. I would give even more than 50% of chances to over, so... value!

Colombia -0,5 @1,92
Yesterday, odds on Colombia were under 1,70 and I have to admit that I was thinking about taking it. Now, at 1,92 it's a default bet for me but count on the fact that James Rodriguez will start on the bench, due to the problems with calf. Even though I've said in the first post about the World Cup, that I smell the surprise in this group with Senegal qualifying and one of two strong teams - Poland or Colombia being a flop, I've decided to go with South Americans here. They are a way more experienced team, having much stronger team individually and I think that in 90 minutes, they should be able to break the Japan side. Japan is the biggest underdog in this group, but even they have some chances of qualifying - anyway fewer chances among other teams in my opinion. With Inui, Kagawa, Haraguchi, they have some interesting players, but I think that all in all, they will have a tough time, competing against well "oiled" Colombian side with veteran Falcao as a lone striker, and strong support of Cuadrado, Sanchez, Quintero and some other players. Pekerman will also have some jokers on the bench -  especially in Bacca and James which cannot be said for the Japan manager Nishino.
Once again, I think that odds went crazy only due to the fact that James starts on the bench, but looking from another perspective... Japanese were probably preparing themselves on this player, trying to cover his movements, not allowing him to take the ball often, not allowing to be alone at all and I expect them being a bit lost now as they don't know if they should do the same with Quintero, or simply pay more attention to other players as Falcao, Cuadrado, etc. I think that a lot will go through Carlos Sanchez in the middle, while it's true that focusing on only a few players against this Colombian side might be a problem. I don't think that will be an easy match for Colombia, but I do think that they will start with a 1-0/2-1 win. I've been looking at over as well, but I have to admit that Colombian defense seems pretty solid, so I am staying only with this suggestion.

Group H - Senegal to qualify @ 2.5 Betvictor
Senegal are arguably the strongest African team at the tournament this year and I simply don't understand their 'qualify from group' price compared to Colombia and Poland. I see those 3 teams all on a similar level and in my view they should be priced closer together. A play on Senegal to progress to the next round holds some value imo.

Croatia -0.5 @1,80
We were able to see that there will be no easy match. Especially in the first round, where especially those well-disciplined teams, with defensive approaches, are capable of surprising much much better opponents. After all, it is only 90 minutes and everything can happen. Here, two very talented squads will meet. Nigeria has some very interesting individuals, some very physical players, capable also of running a lot, but on the other side, we have Croatia with some extremely experienced players, used to play Champions league finals almost every year and tactical advantage is the one, I think will decide the winner on this match. Comparing player to player, Croatia is without a doubt a better side, but Iran, Australia, Iceland have already shown that everything is possible. I think that in overall, odds on Croatia are too high and very valuable. I would set Croatia max at 1,60 as in my eyes they are right behind all those top favorized countries (Brazil, Germany, France, Spain). With Modrić, Rakitić, Kovačić, Badelj, etc... their midfield will be amongst the best on this tournament, they have experienced defensive line and some very good players higher on the pitch (especially Perišić). I expect, that they will get the job done here and start the World Cup with three points. As said at the start of the World Cup, I quietly expect Croatians in the first place in this group.