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StevieDay1983

Last 16 Predictions > Jun 30th & Jul 1st

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It's the last 16 coming up this weekend. We start with the epic France versus Argentina on Saturday at 3pm BST before the intriguing encounter between Uruguay and Portugal at 7pm BST. On Sunday, we are then treated to 2010 champions Spain playing host nation Russia at 3pm BST. It is then the evenly balanced tie between Croatia and Denmark in the 7pm BST kick-off. Let us know your thoughts on these games. Loved the chat so far! :ok

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Uruguay vs Portugal is a really hard game to to find any kind of value, because teams are very predictable and the way they play does not vary a lot, outright markets and over under and markets have got it all right. But because of the predictability I see some value in taking some CS-s.

Uruguay v Portugal CS 1 - 1 @ 6.00 with betfair. Taking account to Portugal's 2016 World Cup progression, I see this score quite likely. Both teams are solid defensively, and making sure not to concede, while arguably having some of the the best goalscorers in the world playing against each other.This bet is pretty easy to trade in-game if I see it is not going to go my way from the beginning and one team is disintegrating before our eyes. Also it helps me to lay 0-0 which I don't believe is happening. 

I think the market may have over reacted on some things, for example Portugal under 2.5 team goals being 1.03 which is 97%, meaning 3+ goals happens almost NEVER, which I quite disagree with because never is such a bold statement.  

Taking account that we have VAR and great goalscorers in both teams I have gone smaller bets on CS 2-1 Uruguay @11, CS 2-1 Portugal @ 12 These are more for the testing purposes and there is no history to support these bets but I think we might see history changing :)

Edited by markus808

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17 minutes ago, darki said:

@StevieDay1983 what you predict for each (correct score line) ?  :D

I'll offer more in-depth previews later today but I would initially say...

France 2-1 Argentina

Uruguay 1-0 Portugal

Spain 2-0 Russia

Croatia 1-1 Denmark (Croatia to win in either ET or on pens)

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58 minutes ago, StevieDay1983 said:

I'll offer more in-depth previews later today but I would initially say...

France 2-1 Argentina

Uruguay 1-0 Portugal

Spain 2-0 Russia

Croatia 1-1 Denmark (Croatia to win in either ET or on pens)

:ok thanks a lot. Ok I'll look out for the previews

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I did my gut feel “to qualify” prices before looking at the actual prices. For me, Denmark, Japan and Colombia are the interesting ones at 21/10, 9/2 and 8/5 respectively. I’m hoping the latter will drift further. I’m going to take a closer look but think I’ll probably end up backing those 3.

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Football Facts and Streaks regarding FIFA World Cup

Uruguay have won their last 4 matches in FIFA World Cup.
Argentina have won their last 4 matches against France in all competitions.
Portugal are undefeated in their last 12 matches in FIFA World Cup.
Uruguay have kept a clean sheet in 71% of their last 7 matches in FIFA World Cup.
France have kept a clean sheet in 71% of their last 7 matches in FIFA World Cup.
Uruguay are undefeated in their last 7 matches in FIFA World Cup.

You can find interesting 96 Football Betting Streaks for 30.06.2018 on this link ... http://eurofootballrumours.com/football-facts-and-streaks-30-06-2018-10180

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France v Argentina

France: Benjamin Mendy (8/0 d)

Out of squad: Mamadou Sakho (28/2 d), Mathieu Debuchy (27/2 d), Lucas Digne (21/0 d), Laurent Koscielny (51/1 d), Adrien Rabiot (6/0 m), Anthony Martial (18/1 f), Christophe Jallet (16/1 d), Layvin Kurzawa (11/1 d), Moussa Sissoko (53/2 m), Kingsley Coman (15/1 m), Alexandre Lacazette (16/3 f), Dimitri Payet (37/8 f)

Argentina: Enzo Pérez (25/1 m, probably in)

Out of squad: Manuel Lanzini (4/1 m), Sergio Romero (94/0 first goalkeeper), Ramiro Funes Mori (19/1 d), Fernando Gago (61/0 m), Javier Pastore (29/2 m)

 

Uruguay v Portugal

Uruguay: no missings

Out of squad: Gastón Ramírez (43/0 d), Nicolás Lodeiro (53/4 m), Álvaro González (73/3 m), Mathías Corujo (22/1 m), Abel Hernández (29/11 f), Diego Rolán (25/4 f)

Portugal: William Carvalho (46/2 m, doubtful)

Out of squad: Rolando (21/0 d), Luís Neto (18/0 d), André Gomes (29/0 m), Danilo Pereira (27/1 m), Nani (112/24 f, 2nd top scorer), Eliseu (29/1 d), Eder (33/4 f), Fábio Coentrão (52/5 d)

 

Daily updated injuries and suspensions information from more then 100 football leagues and competitions worldwide at: www.injuriesandsuspensions.com

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France vs Argentina

One of the pick of the last 16 matches is our first game up this weekend in a 3pm BST kick-off between 1998 champions France and two-time World Cup winners Argentina at the Kazan Arena in Kazan. Two nations that hold realistic expectations of going all the way this time around but one of them will be going home prematurely.

France haven't exactly set the tournament alight yet. Despite being full of some of the hottest talents in European football, Didier Deschamps has failed to get the best out of his players as they struggle to find that team identity. OK, so they did top Group C and didn't concede a goal from open play but it just feels like they are plodding along in second gear.

Jorge Sampaoli's Argentina needed a stroke of genius from Lionel Messi and a last gasp finish by Marcos Rojo of all players to send them through to the last 16 at the death. The 1978 and 1986 world champions have really been underwhelming so far. Can they finally click and allow their frightening attack to over-compensate for their atrocious defence?

If both of these teams were playing each other in their pomp then this would not look out of place as a final. In fact, I saw some people tipping this as a final possibility before the tournament started. Unfortunately, I just think this Argentina side is living on borrowed time. Unless Messi can perform a single man miracle then France should have enough to sneak through.

I'm not saying it will be easy. France have defended reasonably effectively so far so they should be able to provide a stern test for the Argentine attack. However, France's attack has been lacklustre so far and that could give Argentina the small chance they need to stun their opponents.

The more I think about it, the more I think this could be a lot closer than I initially suspected. Ultimately, if France want to win this game and win it well then they could. If they show the creativity they are capable of, the defensive discipline their players deliver at club level, and the finishing that their potent strikers are renowned for then it could be a long game for Argentina. I just think any side with Messi in should never be completely dismissed. France to sneak it but it might take extra-time or penalties.

France to qualify @ 1.70 with Betway

BTTS @ 2.20 with Betfair

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Uruguay vs Portugal

The last 16 action continues at 7pm BST tomorrow when we have arguably one of the tougher ties to call with two-time world champions Uruguay playing reigning European champions Portugal at the Fisht Olympic Stadium in Sochi. Are there two teams that are more finely balanced than these two in this 2nd Round?

Uruguay succeeded in completing their mission objective of topping Group A. It was an auspicious start with the late win over Egypt in their opening game. Two more wins followed without a goal conceded showing just how vital having a centre back partnership that is paired at club level could be.

Portugal continue to do a Portugal. Cristiano Ronaldo aside, this Portuguese has been lacking in quality and conviction. The 3-3 draw with Spain was all down to the Real Madrid attacker. It was his early goal that then sealed the 1-0 win over Morocco. However, it was almost a disaster thanks to VAR when Iran equalised late on in their 1-1 draw in the final group game. Still, Ronaldo has dragged his side over the first hurdle kicking and screaming.

There is no doubt that Fernando Santos' team have developed a successful mentality in tournament football. They might not win every game necessarily but they know how to achieve their aims. It's not easy to win a major international tournament so they shouldn't be ridiculed. They have one of the greatest players of all-time in their ranks.

Sadly, I think we could see Ronaldo exit the tournament here. Uruguay are another nation that knows what is needed to progress in a World Cup. Their defence is so effective and if that is the basis of your play then you can go far. I tipped Uruguay to be potential semi-finalists and I can still see that possibly happening.

Both teams are packed full of experience. I don't think this game will be settled in 90 minutes. This could go all the way to extra-time or even penalties. It's a shame these two sides meet so early because we will either wave goodbye to arguably the best defensive pairing in the tournament or the best player in the world right now. I'm not backing a thrilling game but it could be intriguing for the purists.

Total Goals Scored Under 2.5 @ 1.50 with Blacktype

Game to go to extra-time @ 3.00 with Sportingbet

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A very important showdown, whichever team passes, can reach the institution. If Argentina repeats the appearances of the first two games, it will not be fortunate, of qualitative France. I expect the qualification to be decided on the details, the two teams will not risk very much and will be cautious, the few goals have a lot of luck
FRANCE vs ARGENTINA @@ +2.50 Under, odds 1.50

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Great perspectives and advice, here! In the 16 knockout out round I am going for a strategic bet:

Draw result for the following five matches:

France - Argentina

Uruguay - Portugal

Croatia - Denmark

Sweden - Switzerland

Colombia - England

The odds indicate a "balance" between the teams and, I think, that makes the draw a likely result. With odds between 2.90 to 3.30 the risk is worthwhile. The slight exceptions are the Croatia - Denmark and Colombia - England matches. Neither Croatia or England deserve, in my opinion, to be so strongly favoured against their respective opponents. 

Assuming odds of about 3.00 for each draw, one would need 2 draws to make profit. Actually, I would break even because I can't resist placing a 1 unit bet on the 5 match parlay. Overall, the draw bet is risky, but has value. 

I am going to go one step further and bet the 1-1 correct score for each match with odds between 6.00 to 7.00. Here, you need one winning bet to profit / break even (depending on whether you bet the 5 match 1-1 correct score parlay or not...). There are bookies that will return the bet in the event of a 0-0 draw.

Good luck to all in their World Cup 2018 bets....

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4 hours ago, dak said:

Great perspectives and advice, here! In the 16 knockout out round I am going for a strategic bet:

Draw result for the following five matches:

France - Argentina

Uruguay - Portugal

Croatia - Denmark

Sweden - Switzerland

Colombia - England

The odds indicate a "balance" between the teams and, I think, that makes the draw a likely result. With odds between 2.90 to 3.30 the risk is worthwhile. The slight exceptions are the Croatia - Denmark and Colombia - England matches. Neither Croatia or England deserve, in my opinion, to be so strongly favoured against their respective opponents. 

Assuming odds of about 3.00 for each draw, one would need 2 draws to make profit. Actually, I would break even because I can't resist placing a 1 unit bet on the 5 match parlay. Overall, the draw bet is risky, but has value. 

I am going to go one step further and bet the 1-1 correct score for each match with odds between 6.00 to 7.00. Here, you need one winning bet to profit / break even (depending on whether you bet the 5 match 1-1 correct score parlay or not...). There are bookies that will return the bet in the event of a 0-0 draw.

Good luck to all in their World Cup 2018 bets....

Calling a draw in 5 of the 8 matches in the last 16 is a big call but I can totally see that happening in these games. I can't remember a 2nd Round in the history of the World Cup where so many teams are so evenly matched.

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It was only a few of us, thinking that Croatia can steal the first place in the group from favorized Argentinians, but that’s exactly what happened. Argentina started slow, with only a point and missed penalty against Iceland, while hopes for the first place vanished in the match against Croatia, which finished with 3-0 in favor of Croats. Players of Argentina were under big pressure against Nigeria, where they succeeded, winning and qualifying with help of Croatia. Still, the winning goal came in last quarter of match from Rojo and even though Argentinians were playing with heart in this match, giving their best, I cannot help myself, but I cannot see the level of quality in the team. Bunch of individuals, which are once again set together in a strange way. I have to admit, that I have much bigger expectations when Sampaoli was announced as the new manager, but it seems that things simply aren’t really working as they should. Biglia isn’t 100% ready, Banega is playing, but as well isn’t fully fit, while veteran Mascherano is losing lots of balls in the midfield and if he will continue playing with so many mistakes, they will find themselves in horrible position against France, who possess some very quick players…

On the other hand, I have to say that France didn’t convince me either. Without doubts, most talented squad or let’s say with the biggest depth, but as said several times, in my opinion with an average coach pulling strings from the bench. They finished group on first place, without defeat but with some very bad performances. To be honest, their group wasn’t as tough as the group of Argentina. Plenty of big stars underperformed so far, but still… team looks pretty solid in defense, pretty solid in set-pieces and still with a very poisonable forward line, which can set up a chance from nothing.

Putting all pictures together, I see a difference between those two teams not just in quality, but also in mentality and especially in self-confidence. France with 7 points, securing 1st place without sweating for real and Argentina saving their World Cup in last 10 minutes of the last match in group stages… it simply cannot be the same. True, that Argentina has Leo Messi and if he will have his day, it’s very hard to stop him, but he will be covered by some of best defenders in the world, probably best defensive midfielder when it comes for defensive duties and I think that Leo won’t see an easy match today. On the other side, the offensive line of France will be covered with from what we were able to see until now, pretty weak, unstable defensive line and with all those reasons… I suggest taking France to win with odds around 2,50.

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I'm going to place a Goliath on all games ending in a draw. I can see at least half of the 8 games ending in a draw. There's no clear underdog in any game, not because of odds but because how all teams have performed so far. Plus depth of teams like france and belgium count in extra-time and these can play patiently. Tactics are more important in these tournament games and no team should be taking unnecessary risk. It works in underdog's favor to waste time, slow tempo and the big teams though frustrated know at the back of their mind at extra-time is there too when they can bring more fresh legs of great quality, and take the game then.

 

 

 

 

Edited by NoFear

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12 minutes ago, NoFear said:

I'm going to place a Goliath on all games ending in a draw. I can see at least half of the 8 games ending in a draw. There's no clear underdog in any game, not because of odds but because how all teams have performed so far. Plus depth of teams like france and belgium count in extra-time and these can play patiently. Tactics are more important in these tournament games and no team should be taking unnecessary risk. It works in underdog's favor to waste time, slow tempo and the big teams though frustrated know at the back of their mind at extra-time is there too when they can bring more fresh legs of great quality, and take the game then.

Well explained! I just placed an 8 match parlay bet with 8 draws at odds of 22,654.58. Just one unit...it would have been unforgivable to have gone down the draw route and not have bet all 8 matches as draws after a shout from a fellow punter.

 

 

 

 

Edited by dak

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Uruguay vs Portugal. Expecting a tight match, it's going to be a war of wills. Uruguay has only one yellow from the previous 3 games, whereas Portugal has many. When under pressure, for example, Portugal vs Iran or Portugal at Euro 2016, they get many yellows. Also, there is quite a big chance for the game to go to extra time, this means even more time to collect yellows. EDIT: Extra time usually does not count on yellow card market. So, given this, I found two bets which offer value:   
Team with the most cards Portugal @ 2.27
Portugal over 1.5 cards @1.43 

Edited by markus808

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Spain vs Russia

The host nation have exceeded expectations of most people by getting to this stage of the tournament but it could well end right here. 2010 world champions Spain were predicted by FIFA 18 to win it this year and they will face Russia in a 3pm BST kick-off on Sunday afternoon at the Luzhniki Stadium in Moscow.

Spain's preparations were thrown into chaos when Julen Lopetegui was sacked from his role as head coach after conspiring with Real Madrid to sort a job out for himself after the tournament without letting his superiors at the Spanish FA know about any decision until 15 minutes before it was announced by the reigning European champions. Still, Fernando Hierro has done well as caretaker head coach to guide the team through Group B in first place.

Russia were tipped by many to have a disaster of a tournament. Stanislav Cherchesov's side came into the tournament as the lowest ranked nation but blew form out of the window when they battered Saudi Arabia 5-0 in their opening game before then sealing qualification in the last 16 by beating Egypt 3-1. However, the final group game defeat of 3-0 to Uruguay was a huge dose of reality for the hosts.

This is by no means a Spain side playing to their full potential. Hierro gives the impression that he is a great man motivator but he lacks on the tactical front. Even so, this Spanish unit has enough talent to sweep this Russian side away even if they are operating at 70% of their full capabilities.

Spain have shown they can score goals when needed and that will be a worry for this Russian defence. Every time it has been tested it has been breached. A physical individual such as Diego Costa will eat that back-line for lunch. Russia looked to be running out of gas against Uruguay and this will be an even tougher challenge. I can see Spain sending the host nation packing with an experienced display. Only a miracle can save Russia.

Spain to win @ 1.65 with Betstars

Diego Costa Anytime Scorer @ 2.38 with Unibet

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Croatia vs Denmark

The final preview from this section of the last 16 games is for the Croatia versus Denmark game that kicks off at 7pm BST on Sunday night at the Nizhny Novgorod Stadium in Nizhny Novvgorod. Many are touting this as Luka Modric versus Christian Eriksen but there are many more battles going on across the pitch that make this such an intriguing match-up.

Croatia topped the "Group of Death" that also included Argentina, Nigeria, and Iceland. Modric played a key role in those early performances but it was a qualification built on a solid defence and counter attacking play that tore apart both Nigeria and Argentina.

It was par for the course for Denmark. It was twitchy bum time on occasions but generally it was a business-like group phase. Two clean sheets from three games showed that they have a defence that will be tough to breach. The downside is that they only scored 2 goals from 25 attempts on goal. Despite possessing some quality strikers in Nicolai Jorgensen, Kasper Dolberg, and Yussuf Poulsen the goals appear more likely to come from midfield with Eriksen and Pione Sisto offering more of a goal threat.

This is one game I am looking forward to. It's a battle of the creative midfields. I think Croatia might edge it purely on having a more solid defensive side to the middle of their park. Denmark are still 2-3 players short of matching them for quality. I was more impressed with Croatia during the group stage but Denmark did have to face very dogged opposition.

I've steered clear of the specials markets floating around where they are trying to rope in punters with Modric or Eriksen scoring outside the box. Backing them to score anytime might be worth a shout but I think Croatia will edge this one. It is another tight one that could go to extra-time or, at best, be decided by a single goal. I'd even back Croatia to maybe sneak this one with a clean sheet.

Croatia to win to nil @ 2.62 with SunBets

Total Goals Scored Under 2.5 @ 1.53 with BetStars

 

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Football Facts and Streaks regarding FIFA World Cup

Croatia have won 83% of their last 6 matches in FIFA World Cup.
There have been over 2.5 goals scored in 80% of Spain's last 10 games in FIFA World Cup.
Spain have scored at least 2 goals in 82% of their last 11 matches in FIFA World Cup.
There have been under 2.5 goals scored in 86% of Denmark's last 7 games in FIFA World Cup.
There have been over 2.5 goals scored in Russia's last 3 games in FIFA World Cup.
Croatia have scored at least 2 goals in 83% of their last 6 matches in FIFA World Cup.

You can find interesting 110 Football Betting Streaks for 01.07.2018 on this link ... http://eurofootballrumours.com/football-facts-and-streaks-01-07-2018-10182

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Croatia vs Denmark

Croatia made the rotations with the players against Iceland, but they still did their best, with good form. Finally, they won their last game, with a 3-game winning streak in the group stage. Their performance in both defensive and offensive ends is good. Now they will play against Denmark who are 2nd in the Group C.

On the other hand, Denmark have entered the Round of 16, but their last draw against France makes fans disappointed. But that is good for them as they have qualified and retained their energy for the next knockout round. 

In terms of both sides' comprehensive strength, Croatia and Denmark have played well in defensive end in their first 3 group games, but Croatia are superior to Denmark in offensive end as they have many players to attack and even score goals.

You can visit 7msport.com for more information about World Cup's tips.

Thus, 7M Sports believe that Croatia are expected to win and progress into next round.

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Spain vs Russia

Spain's performance in the group stage is disappointing, but refer to their display when Spain won the European champions and World Cup champions, Spain are expected to show a strong control in the knock-out stage.

Spain are expected to take the lead in this match. Spain's playing style can easily upset their rivals and cause them to play badly.

The line is -0.75 for the hosts, which is in favor of Spain.

You can check more information about Wolrd Cup's tips at http://predict.7msport.com/en/report_list.shtml

So 7M Sports believe Spain are expected to win in this game.

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