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StevieDay1983

Premier League Predictions > Jan 19th & 20th

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Newcastle Utd v Cardiff City

Cardiff City +0.50 AH @ 1.91 Betvictor

Newcastle may have won their midweek FA Cup replay but the match went to extra-time and Newcastle now have many injury doubts for Saturday's game with Cardiff.

Cardiff haven't been that impressive on the road this season but key goal metrics have them virtually level with Newcastle. ELO ratings are starting to favour Neil Warnock's team with a three-quarter goal advantage heading into Saturday's game so the technicals look ok for the away side.

This game should be closely contested and I think a play on X @ 3.42 Matchbook is also reasonable here, I have backed this at half stakes.

 

Southampton V Everton

Everton -0 AH @ 1.95 Matchbook

Everton should be buoyed by their 2-0 home win over Bournemouth last weekend. Their attacking quartet of Richarlison, Bernard, Lookman and Sigurdsson are menacing in different ways and if you compare the attacking quality of these two sides I don't think many would disagree that Everton have the advantage here.

Everton's improving attacking performances are reflected in their ELO ratings and they head into this one with a 1.5 goal advantage. Key goal metrics are much closer with the away side having only a slight advantage but that is partly due to the fact that Everton have already played 5 of the big 6 away from home and this has contributed to their underwhelming away form.

Southampton do have CF Austin and CM Hojbjerg back in contention this weekend which is a boost as they are both important players. Despite this we have seen Southampton's midweek FA Cup replay go to extra-time and penalties, where they eventually lost. A number of first team players did play in that game and so there maybe one or two tired legs for Saturdays game with Everton.

This is another game which could be closely contested and I see some added value in X @ 3.48 Matchbook, I have backed this at half stakes.

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brighton will score 2 against man utd. i see five goals in this match with man utd coming on top second half.

i don't trust newcastle to win their match. i don't think cardiff are much better but they could cancel them out. 

west ham will not lose. they have stepped up in recent matches and it's all about holding themselves at that level.

southampton was lucky to win last week and yes their midweek game will impact them. everton need to play better defensively and if they show same discipline like a week ago they should win

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Newcastle vs Cardiff

It's a crunch game for both of these clubs on the weekend when Newcastle welcome Cardiff to St James' Park for this 3pm kick-off this Saturday afternoon. Both clubs need a win but have been struggling to find the back of the net this season so far. This might not be a classic!

Newcastle seem like a club that are heading towards relegation. The fan discontent, the lack of interest from the owner, and even the manager losing the support of some of the fan base. It feels like a perfect storm that comes with relegation from the top flight. The Magpies are 18th in the league table. Defeat here would leave them potentially 4 points adrift of safety.

Cardiff have been busy filling the back pages of the tabloids this week. If it isn't the ongoing transfer saga over Nantes striker Emiliano Sala, it's Neil Warnock making controversial Brexit comments, or speculation linking the club with a loan deal for Everton's Oumar Niasse. The Bluebirds are in 17th place and after breaking the away duck against Leicester the players might well feel they can take all three points here.

I'm struggling to back us for the win here. Yes, I feel we are a more united, harder working, and more buoyant club than Newcastle right now but I just think our players are blowing. We looked exhausted against Huddersfield at home last week and we were lucky to come away with a point.

On the plus side, we have only lost 1 of our last 4 league games. If we can get Niasse or Sala into the starting line-up for the weekend then that would be a massive boost but I doubt that will happen. The return of Rhys Healey is an interesting one. He's been hampered by injuries but has always looked hard working and determined when he's played but probably not good enough to be honest. I don't know why but I'm fearing a 1-0 loss here. Non-fans of Cardiff might rightly back us to get something but I just think the Toon Army will pip us to a single goal victory. I hope I'm wrong.

Newcastle to Win @ 2.05 with Blacktype

Total Goals Scored Under 2.5 @ 1.67 with Matchbook

@Mindfulness, @Pep004, @MaliMisko12, @betcatalog, @sajtion, @godofhorses, @Tiffy, @waynecoyne, @The Sexless Innkeeper, @Magic0024, @malabgd, @Duke_Tm, @dogmeister, @Arkadi Manucharov, @derbent, @fat, @allyhibs, @6avin24, @discipline, @the bastardian, @Bronxie, @Bett@KikoCy, @teddybear3011, @markus808, @allthethings, @Kenton Schweppes, @vasilli07, @Dylan Lynch, @neilovan, @JKos, @zemo91, @kulikTS, @mrclubbie, @Judeksi, @Henind666, @Teodore, @kilkenny1, @newjack, @PokerWolf1, @Dave1X2, @real55555, @jazzman02, @Ameer13, @Gedkip, @mcsilks, @MangoTheThird, @Roy The Boy, @DonPaulo, @Duckets, @yossa6133, @sjuesju, @dylanphan, @thfc, @Dboston, @Dr. Florida192, @money44, @1moregoal, @ggm31v, @EuroDream, @ndanmak, @cummins91, @vicsuna, and @AndreBR, what do you all think of these tips? Do you agree? What other bets are you lining up?

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I have had a rough past few weeks with the Premier ship.It feels like the beginning of season for most terms. The Arsenal Chelsea game should be interesting as the battle for 4thheats up.Arsenal are in a bad space and when their heads are down Chelsea can take advantage. A draw no bet on the away team might not be bad.Manchester United are scoring goals especially against the small teams.Over 2.5 at odds of 1.65 is not bad.Teams I will not trust this week to win Newcastle and Westham.

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Spurs are out to 1.8 which is obviously down to the loss of Kane and to a lesser extent Son.  If the price continues to drift a little closer to evens, i'll be on spurs to win this.  Basic reasoning being, spurs are in great form away from home and don't need Kane and/or Son to be on the pitch to beat Fulham, who managed to lose last week despite Burnley having 0 shots on target!

@StevieDay1983, i'm surprised you are so down on Cardiff in this one.  Newcastle not good at home, and taken to extra time in midweek so that might even out the tiredness factor a bit?  I agree with @Mindfulness that Cardiff have a good chance of getting something out of this one and quite like the double chance price of 1.91.

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Manchester United vs Brighton

2:0 Correct Score @ 6.5

Manchester United won 3 out of 19 home games last season with 2:0 and 5 out of 38 games. The most common score was 1:0 with 6/38 and 4/19 home games. You could say Manchester United is a more attacking team under Solskjaer and should see more 2:0 wins than 1:0 especially against sides like Brighton. It is worth noting that last year Manchester United won at home 1:0 in the Premier League and 2:0 in the FA Cup vs Brighton. Manchester United are playing their 11th game at Old Trafford and none of the home games so far this season ended 2:0(there are 2 such away wins in 12 matches one with Solskjaer in charge). The bookies see this as the most likely correct score giving it the lowest odds.

Brighton lost 7/19 away games last season 2:0 and 9/38 games total. They have had 3 such away losses this season in 11 games(one vs Man City and none at home). 

Manchester United have 2 wins(1 vs Reading at home in FA Cup)with 2:0 correct score with Solskjaer as manager making it the most common score in his 6 games. They have not conceded a goal in the last 2 Premier League games and all of the last 3 matches. Maybe backing win to nill is also worth it as De Gea is back to his best form and Brighton are notoriously weak away team.

Edited by vicsuna

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16 hours ago, thfc said:

Spurs are out to 1.8 which is obviously down to the loss of Kane and to a lesser extent Son.  If the price continues to drift a little closer to evens, i'll be on spurs to win this.  Basic reasoning being, spurs are in great form away from home and don't need Kane and/or Son to be on the pitch to beat Fulham, who managed to lose last week despite Burnley having 0 shots on target!

@StevieDay1983, i'm surprised you are so down on Cardiff in this one.  Newcastle not good at home, and taken to extra time in midweek so that might even out the tiredness factor a bit?  I agree with @Mindfulness that Cardiff have a good chance of getting something out of this one and quite like the double chance price of 1.91.

It's just my instilled pessimism as a fan I think, @thfc. I'm more optimistic now after the confirmation of Niasse's signing and the likely signing of Emiliano Sala. I think both players can add to our play in the final third which is the big issue. I'm just not sure they'll hit the ground running. We have a habit of dropping the ball in games like this. Which is strange because last season it was the games against our positional rivals where we flourished. I just think it'll be a really poor game and Newcastle could scab all three points.

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Crystal Palace as big as 18 to win at Liverpool.  They beat Man City not so long ago away from home at similar odds...

Palace have been a bit of a bogey side for Liverpool, with the infamous 3-3 draw a few years ago, and Palace have actually won at Anfield 3 out of the last 5 PL fixtures.  I doubt there is another PL team with that good a recent record in going to Liverpool and getting a result.

Saying that, I don't expect Palace to win, but I think the price is too big.  For perspective, Brighton (similar ability to Palace IMO) are only 13s to win at Man Utd with their well known terrible away form.  I don't think i'm brave enough to take a punt on Palace outright, but maybe on a +2 handicap, as I can seem them keeping it competitive.  

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31 minutes ago, thfc said:

Crystal Palace as big as 18 to win at Liverpool.  They beat Man City not so long ago away from home at similar odds...

Palace have been a bit of a bogey side for Liverpool, with the infamous 3-3 draw a few years ago, and Palace have actually won at Anfield 3 out of the last 5 PL fixtures.  I doubt there is another PL team with that good a recent record in going to Liverpool and getting a result.

Saying that, I don't expect Palace to win, but I think the price is too big.  For perspective, Brighton (similar ability to Palace IMO) are only 13s to win at Man Utd with their well known terrible away form.  I don't think i'm brave enough to take a punt on Palace outright, but maybe on a +2 handicap, as I can seem them keeping it competitive.  

Yeah, I think the news that Julian Speroni is set to make his first start for the club since 2017 has affected the odds. It's always hard to tell with keepers coming back in after a while out. Some have absolute nightmare showings where as others have the game of their lives. I think those odds will be worth some kind of handicap bet. As you said, Palace just seem to have this habit against Liverpool. Nice pick! :ok

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there is no way i am backing tottenham to win. pochettino is good manager but its plain obvious the absence of key players is for tottenham will give great chance to fulham to grab a win. i think they will get it one way or the other

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Football Facts and Streaks regarding Premier League

73% of Bournemouth's matches had over 2.5 goals scored in Premier League.
Chelsea have scored 32% of their goals after the 75th minute in Premier League.
Liverpool have won their last 6 home matches in Premier League.
Crystal Palace have scored 40% of their goals after the 75th minute in Premier League.
Manchester Utd have won their last 5 matches in Premier League.
32% of Newcastle Utd's conceded goals occurred after the 75th minute in Premier League.
Cardiff City have scored 42% of their goals after the 75th minute in Premier League.
Arsenal have been undefeated in their last 10 home matches in Premier League.

You can find interesting 176 Football Betting Streaks for 19.01.2019 on this link ... https://eurofootballrumours.com/football-facts-and-streaks-19-01-2019-13107

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Liverpool FC v Crystal Palace

Liverpool FC: Trent Alexander-Arnold (17/1 d), Georginio Wijnaldum (21/1 m)(both doubtful), Dejan Lovren (9/1 d), Joe Gomez (13/0 d), Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain (0/0 m)

Crystal Palace: Wayne Hennessey (17/0 first goalkeeper), Vicente Guaita (6/0 2nd goalkeeper), Pape Souare (1/0 d)

 

Manchester United v Brighton

Manchester United: Marouane Fellaini (14/0 m), Chris Smalling (13/1 d), Marcos Rojo (2/0 d)

Brighton: Yves Bissouma (16/0 m, doubtful), Bernardo (11/0 d), Jose Izquierdo (9/0 f), Mathew Ryan (19/0 first goalkeeper, national selection), Alireza Jahanbakhsh (10/0 f, national selection)

 

Daily updated injuries and suspensions information from more then 100 football leagues and competitions worldwide at: www.injuriesandsuspensions.com

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Arsenal vs Chelsea

The highlight of this weekend's Premier League schedule is the London derby between Arsenal and Chelsea that's taking place on Saturday evening with a 5:30pm kick-off from the Emirates Stadium. The Gunners are experiencing a bit of a wobble with rumours of player discontent so can the Blues continue their recovery from their own issues?

Arsenal started the season well under Unai Emery. At one point, they had even gone 14 league games unbeaten that included a streak of 7 consecutive victories. The cracks are starting to show for Emery though with Aaron Ramsey reportedly having agreed a pre-contract deal with Juventus and Mesut Ozil wanting out. It comes at a time when the club have only won 2 of their last 6 league games. They are now in 5th place and only ahead of a rejuvenated Manchester United on goal difference.

Chelsea are still suffering from two major issues this season. The club lacks a predatory goal scorer and Jorginho has an inability to score or get any assists. Not what you want from a central midfielder that cost you £51.3 million. It is being speculated that Maurizio Sarri is on the verge of completing the signing of Gonzalo Higuain with the possibility of Callum Wilson also being signed from Bournemouth. The central midfield issue is more grappling.

It's looking unlikely that either side will bring in new faces in time for this match so we have to go with the squads they have right now. Something just isn't right with Arsenal right now. The defence is still in need of a major overhaul. There's no money being made available for new players apart from loans. It just feels like the squad has hit the wall.

The Blues have only lost once to Chelsea in their last 14 league meetings. That solitary loss came back in September, 2016. Chelsea can set a new standard for away sides visiting the Emirates Stadium. If Sarri's team come away with all three points then they will be the first club to earn six consecutive wins at the stadium against Arsenal.

There is hope for Arsenal fans though. In all the poor form and negative stats, they are currently unbeaten in 10 home league matches with 8 wins and 2 losses. Only Liverpool and Manchester City boast better home records. It's also unlikely Chelsea will be banging the goals in. Eden Hazard could well be used as a false nine once again and that not only hampers their creativity deeper in the field but also limits his involvement compared to when he's out wide.

I'm not sure if this game will be entertaining or not. It feels like a game neither side wants to lose. Both clubs are enduring their problems at the moment and in danger of being caught by a resurgent Manchester United. I think Arsenal might have enough to win here purely because Chelsea just don't have enough fire power at the moment averaging just 1.2 goals scored per game over their last 11 league games. That's the issue that could cost them dearly here.

Arsenal Draw No Bet @ 2.24 with MarathonBet

Anytime Scorer: Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang @ 2.40 with Boylesports

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6 hours ago, StevieDay1983 said:

It's just my instilled pessimism as a fan I think, @thfc. I'm more optimistic now after the confirmation of Niasse's signing and the likely signing of Emiliano Sala. I think both players can add to our play in the final third which is the big issue. I'm just not sure they'll hit the ground running. We have a habit of dropping the ball in games like this. Which is strange because last season it was the games against our positional rivals where we flourished. I just think it'll be a really poor game and Newcastle could scab all three points.

I want something to add.Well it will be very bad if Niasse or Sala play infront in first eleven.Why? Because Fulham have had the same problem at first match against Crystal Palace,you dont have chemestry,players doesn’t know your movment on the pitch and the some other reasons so..

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11 hours ago, StevieDay1983 said:

It's just my instilled pessimism as a fan I think, @thfc. I'm more optimistic now after the confirmation of Niasse's signing and the likely signing of Emiliano Sala. I think both players can add to our play in the final third which is the big issue. I'm just not sure they'll hit the ground running. We have a habit of dropping the ball in games like this. Which is strange because last season it was the games against our positional rivals where we flourished. I just think it'll be a really poor game and Newcastle could scab all three points.

1

Well... I am really wondering how he will adapt to EPL. He is a physical striker, but when reading some descriptions about under "What can Sala bring to Cardiff", I have to say that I was laughing a lot. He will let his heart on the pitch, he will fight like an idiot but don't expect him to stop the ball and keep it at his foot, as well as don't really expect him to score goals with feet. :) He is a good finisher in the box (with head, hips, chest, knees, ankles), but he will miss 100% chances with feet. His first touch is catastrophic, his ball control as well. I've been thinking a lot about his assimilation in EPL, and even though fighting spirit might help him a lot, as well as plenty of crosses (don't know how Cardiff plays), I think that he won't find it easy in England, as defenders in England are usually pretty much physical as well. I will definitely keep an eye on him. :) 

Edited by Pep004

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10 hours ago, Pep004 said:

Well... I am really wondering how he will adapt to EPL. He is a physical striker, but when reading some descriptions about under "What can Sala bring to Cardiff", I have to say that I was laughing a lot. He will let his heart on the pitch, he will fight like an idiot but don't expect him to stop the ball and keep it at his foot, as well as don't really expect him to score goals with feet. :) He is a good finisher in the box (with head, hips, chest, knees, ankles), but he will miss 100% chances with feet. His first touch is catastrophic, his ball control as well. I've been thinking a lot about his assimilation in EPL, and even though fighting spirit might help him a lot, as well as plenty of crosses (don't know how Cardiff plays), I think that he won't find it easy in England, as defenders in England are usually pretty much physical as well. I will definitely keep an eye on him. :) 

That is exactly what we need, @Pep004! We don't get many chances on the deck because of the way we play. We're very direct and the amount of aerial balls we get into the box we just need a bit of a bruiser in there. He sounds just like that. Don't listen to these new generation FIFA-playing supporters who think we should all play like Manchester City or Barcelona. We know our limitations and if Sala can run his socks off and not be afraid of putting his face in where it hurts then that will really help us. He sounds like Kenneth Zohore... but with a work rate!

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14 hours ago, MaliMisko12 said:

I want something to add.Well it will be very bad if Niasse or Sala play infront in first eleven.Why? Because Fulham have had the same problem at first match against Crystal Palace,you dont have chemestry,players doesn’t know your movment on the pitch and the some other reasons so..

Yes, I would hate to see them both rushed in. I think Niasse might start on the bench today. I can't see Sala being involved if his signing was completed in time (I'm not sure it was anyway). I think Sala has been signed as the central striker and Niasse might be played out wide. Our wingers have been really poor this season. Murphy started well but he's gone off the boil since November. Hoilett has glimpses of self belief but generally lacks confidence. Mendez-Laing works hard but he's not good enough. Harris appeared to be improving but he's vanished again now. I'm surprised we haven't looked at getting a winger in to be honest. It's not even being mentioned.

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Southampton v Everton

If I had to choose 1 team this weekend to bet against, it would be Everton. They are so inconsistent, show poor away form, and have stagnated a little (in my opinion) under SIlva. Is Silva all that good? Hmmmm, jury is out.

When looking at previous results I tend to ignore the anomalies. If you remove the 1-5 away win at Burnley, Everton don't look so clever, scoring just 4 goals in 7 away games. I really don't think they can win here, but the Saints will also struggle. However, I think the new manager makes the difference here.

I do like the over 2.5 goals here for 2 reasons;

1) Two evenly matched teams that will both reckon they have a winning chance, will create an open game.

2) Saints are finding 1st half goals in recent home league games. Early goals open up games.

I would be going over 2.5 goals here, but if I was backing a winner, I would be going Saints and over 2.5 (based on head to head Saints 4 wins in 5 in this fixture.)

 

Saints HOME WIN & OVER 2.5 goals odds 4.25

 

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Wolves - Leicester City
Wolves2.32 2-1FT

Newcastle Utd - Cardiff City
Newcastle Utd2.05 2-1FT

Southampton - Everton
Southampton2.80 2-1FT

Manchester Utd - Brighton
Manchester Utd1.38 3-0 FT

Liverpool - Crystal Palace
Crystal Palace13.75 1-2 FT

Bournemouth - West Ham
Draw3.70 1-1FT

Watford - Burnley
Watford1.64 1-0FT

Arsenal - Chelsea
Arsenal2.92 3-1FT

Huddersfield Town - Manchester City
Mancheste
 City1.16 1-4FT

Fulham - Tottenham
Draw3.65 1-1 FT

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Football Facts and Streaks regarding Premier League

Huddersfield have failed to win in their last 9 matches in Premier League.
36% of Tottenham's conceded goals occurred after the 75th minute in Premier League.
73% of Manchester City's matches had over 2.5 goals scored in Premier League.
Fulham conceded at least 1 goal in 90% of their home matches in Premier League.

You can find interesting 154 Football Betting Streaks for 20.01.2019 on this link ... https://eurofootballrumours.com/football-facts-and-streaks-20-01-2019-13136

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28 minutes ago, Mindfulness said:

An absolute shocker of a card for me but some good calls from @neilovan, @thfc and @StevieDay1983

The EPL has had a low % of X outcomes so far this season, will it revert to the mean? Not sure as it maybe a sign that an increasing number of teams play with a kitchen sink mentality.

 

 

I'm so disappointed with us today. The minute we saw the team sheet we knew we were screwed. Not sure why Gunnarsson was on the bench. Yes, he's not been great lately but Ralls is a mid-Championship player at best. Due to Morrison missing we needed a DM in the midfield to break up play to protect what was a fragile back-line. Peltier coming back in as well. The guy is a hard worker but he's a lower Championship player at best. I think today showed how shallow our squad depth is. We still don't understand what Bobby Reid has to do to get a run of starts. The lad busts a gut every game and always looks like he might score if he had more time and more creativity behind him. Today is the first time I've thought this season that we could be up the creek.

Sala coming in could solve our lack of attacking threat in the 4-2-3-1 but we need at least another defender, central midfielder, and winger. Apparently, if Sala comes in then we're only after a defender. Big problem for me. No matter what happens or how bad things get this season I still won't ask for Warnock to be sacked. Some of our pathetic fans are asking for it already. We've got a tough game against Arsenal a week Tuesday but after that it's three games where we should give it a real go against Bournemouth (H), Southampton (A), and Watford (H). After those three games we'll know a lot more about our fate this season.

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6 minutes ago, StevieDay1983 said:

No matter what happens or how bad things get this season I still won't ask for Warnock to be sacked. Some of our pathetic fans are asking for it already. We've got a tough game against Arsenal a week Tuesday but after that it's three games where we should give it a real go against Bournemouth (H), Southampton (A), and Watford (H). After those three games we'll know a lot more about our fate this season.

I agree, it would be a pointless move. You wouldn't be able to find a manager that could do better with the current squad of players and budget you have. The only concern I would have is morale, Warnock needs to maintain that and not let arguments about Brexit spill over into the dressing room.

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