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Group H Predictions (Poland, Senegal, Colombia, Japan)


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  • Sir Puntalot changed the title to Group H Predictions

Group H - Senegal to qualify @ 2.5 Betvictor

Senegal are arguably the strongest African team at the tournament this year and I simply don't understand their 'qualify from group' price compared to Colombia and Poland. I see those 3 teams all on a similar level and in my view they should be priced closer together. A play on Senegal to progress to the next round holds some value imo.

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On 5/14/2018 at 10:46 AM, Mindfulness said:

Group H - Senegal to qualify @ 2.5 Betvictor

Senegal are arguably the strongest African team at the tournament this year and I simply don't understand their 'qualify from group' price compared to Colombia and Poland. I see those 3 teams all on a similar level and in my view they should be priced closer together. A play on Senegal to progress to the next round holds some value imo.

That's not a bad shout. I certainly think Japan will finish bottom of the group. I think Poland are stronger than usual this year and will be a team to watch. Many Polish fans are suggesting this is the strongest Poland side to head to a major tournament since the 1974 World Cup squad that reached the semi-finals. Are Colombia the force they were four years ago? Jose Pekerman's team only qualified by 1 point.

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  • 2 weeks later...
On 5/31/2018 at 3:56 PM, Tel79 said:

great shout, Senegal are dark horses and have some great players in their side. I am backing this. 

It's easy to forget the quality they possess simply because they've been away from the big stage for so long. Looking at their squad they have the likes of Anderlecht defender Kara Mbodji, Napoli defender Kalidou Koulibaly, Hannover defender Salif Sane, a midfield that includes Idrissa Gueye of Everton, Cheikhou Kouyate from West Ham, and strikers such as Liverpool's Sadio Mane, Bursaspor's Moussa Sow, and Amiens' Moussa Konate. Strength across the pitch.

I still think Poland and Colombia have stronger squads but who can tell on the day?

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If you noticed an odds movement on Poland accross the board that would be due to the injury of Kamil Glik (AS Monaco), who decided to shoot an overhead kick during a 5-a-side training session game and landed straight on his back, damaging his shoulder in the process. The latest news indicate he'll be out for 5-6 weeks (he might make it in time to feature in the finals if we manage to scrape through :D ) He's the pillar of our back four and without him I'm honestly worried about the state of our defence. Think of him as John Terry in his prime for the English national team.

There's a joke doing the rounds in Poland for a long while that whenever we play in the World Cup or Euros, there are 3 group games that could be characterised as:

1. The opening game

2. Win or die

3. Saving the face

I for one am quite sceptical about our chances in Russia. The opening game vs Senegal will be decisive and if Mane and Co shift the gear up, we'll be in trouble. All of our defenders currently at the disposal are slow (apart from Piszczek from Dortmund) , combined with physical style of African teams (the style we're supposed to play), we might see the copy/paste scenario of Poland's games in S. Korea in 2002, which read as follows: Loss - Loss - Win , and corresponds directly with the game description above (1-3).

We have a decent generation of players but a large group of them will retire after this World Cup, their hay days were during the Euros in France. Lewandowski is about to leave Bayern (for Juventus?) and his mind might be elsewhere if he doesn't do all the paperwork before the first kick off.

I predict we will not qualify from the group and will try our best to avoid the last spot in the group in our final game versus Japan. Japanese football have progressed immensly so losing to them is not out of the question either.

Poland: zero points in the group stage @26

Poland: 1 point in the group stage @12

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited by Marek76
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10 hours ago, Marek76 said:

If you noticed a dip of odds on Poland accross the board that would be due to the injury of Kamil Glik (AS Monaco), who decided to shoot an overhead kick during a 5-a-side training session game and landed straight on his back, damaging his shoulder in the process. The latest news indicate he'll be out for 5-6 weeks (he might make it in time to feature in the finals if we manage to scrape through :D ) He's the pillar of our back four and without him I'm honestly worried about the state of our defence. Think of him as John Terry in his prime for the English national team.

There's a joke doing the rounds in Poland for a long while that whenever we play in the World Cup or Euros, there are 3 group games that could be characterised as:

1. The opening game

2. Win or die

3. Saving the face

I for one am quite sceptical about our chances in Russia. The opening game vs Senegal will be decisive and if Mane and Co shift the gear up, we'll be in trouble. All of our defenders currently at the disposal are slow (besides Piszczek from Dortmund) , combined with physical style of African teams (the style we're supposed to play), we might see the copy/paste scenario of Poland's games in S. Korea in 2002, which read the following: Loss - Loss - Win , and corresponds directly with the game characteristics above (1-3).

We have a decent generation of players but a large group of them will retire after this World Cup, their hay days were during the Euros in France. Lewandowski is about to leave Bayern (for Juventus?) and his mind might be elsewhere if he doesn't do all the paperwork before the first kick off.

I predict we will not qualify from the group and will try our best to avoid the last spot in the group in our final game versus Japan. Japanese football have progressed immensly so losing to them is not out of the question either.

Poland: zero points in the group stage @26

Poland: 1 point in the group stage @12

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

This is good info marek, I have always been impressed by Glik when I have seen him. Senegal look tempting at 5/2 in the game v Poland. I have backed this and also sold the time of the second Senegal goal at 81.

Edited by waynecoyne
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Cheers @Marek76! I'm surprised you're feeling so pessimistic about your chances. You've got a very solid squad even with the injury to Glik. You were unlucky not to go further at Euro 2016. I think so long as you have Lewandowski, Milik, and some creativity in midfield then you stand every chance of progressing to the 2nd Round. I think you could be dark horses for the Quarter-Finals if Glik is back fit.

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@StevieDay1983 Agreed about our progress during the Euro but still. the World Cup is a totally different gravy, with more styles of football to deal with. I simply have a sneaky feeeling we're going to bottle it. And should we lose the first group game, the panic button will be pressed 24/7 in our team :D 

Keep a close eye on our next friendly vs Chile on the upcoming Friday. If the guests play anywhere close to full strength, we'll get a true answer on how we can fare in Russia. 

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9 hours ago, Marek76 said:

@StevieDay1983 Agreed about our progress during the Euro but still. the World Cup is a totally different gravy, with more styles of football to deal with. I simply have a sneaky feeeling we're going to bottle it. And should we lose the first group game, the panic button will be pressed 24/7 in our team :D 

Keep a close eye on our next friendly vs Chile on the upcoming Friday. If the guests play anywhere close to full strength, we'll get a true answer on how we can fare in Russia. 

Haha, you remind me of how I was before Wales entered the 2016 European Championship. You raise a valid point. The World Cup is a different animal. It's probably why some teams flourish in the Euros over the years yet others seem to play better at the World Cup.

I'll be rooting for you guys. My best friend sadly took his own life in 2004. His grandparents and mother were Polish so we always kept track of their progress at major tournaments. I've kept keeping an eye on you guys ever since. Would love to see you do well. Lewandowski is surely worth an e/w bet for top scorer at 34.00? Especially with some bookies paying out on the top 6 places.

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I'm sorry to hear you lost a friend. And thank you for the support, we'll need all the help we can get :) The last time (and only one) I visited Wales was back in October 2004 to see Poland win vs Wales in Cardiff. Good memories! And the quickest 10 quid lost was when I bought an air horn ('of course you can take it with you to the stadium!') only to lose it at the gates few minutes after :lol 

Regarding Poland's chances: I'd rather be pleasantly surprised rather than to get overhyped and get dissapointed after we go out ouf the tournament. Especially as I did experience the latter version so many times before :)

Regarding Lewandowski and the whole top goal scorer market. I believe the value lies in those who can bag a serious number of goals at a group stage. Just like Oleg Salenko did during the World Cup USA in 1994, where he scored 5 goals in one group game and shared the top spot with Stoichkov, both of them scoring 6 times during the whole tournament. 

Lewandowski will be heavily guarded so the value might be in backing one of the attacking midfielders to become the top goalscorer for Poland. The player I have in mind is Kamil Grosicki of Hull City @12 He's really keen to move clubs in the summer so he needs to perform well in order to do just that. He scored 3 times (+3 assists) during the WC qualifiers (2nd best result after Lewandowski with 16 goals). He's not goal shy at the club level either so he could actually deliver. 

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12 hours ago, Marek76 said:

Regarding Lewandowski and the whole top goal scorer market. I believe the value lies in those who can bag a serious number of goals at a group stage. Just like Oleg Salenko did during the World Cup USA in 1994, where he scored 5 goals in one group game and shared the top spot with Stoichkov, both of them scoring 6 times during the whole tournament. 

Lewandowski will be heavily guarded so the value might be in backing one of the attacking midfielders to become the top goalscorer for Poland. The player I have in mind is Kamil Grosicki of Hull City @12 He's really keen to move clubs in the summer so he needs to perform well in order to do just that. He scored 3 times (+3 assists) during the WC qualifiers (2nd best result after Lewandowski with 16 goals). He's not goal shy at the club level either so he could actually deliver. 

I agree with that first bit. I don't really rate the Colombia or Japan defence. Senegal seem to have a decent back four though. I think Lewandowski could get 3-4 at least in the group stage though.

My only experience of Grosicki has been for Hull but he's not really played much. He's seemed to have performed OK when I've seen him play so not sure what went on there. Clearly a player of ability but it would have to be very appealing odds for me to back an attacking midfielder of a team not favourites to win the tournament to back as a top scorer whether that be outright or e/w.

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5 hours ago, StevieDay1983 said:

Clearly a player of ability but it would have to be very appealing odds for me to back an attacking midfielder of a team not favourites to win the tournament to back as a top scorer whether that be outright or e/w.

I meant to back him as a top goalscorer for Poland (@12 as opposed to Lewandowski @1.5), not in the outright market.

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5 hours ago, sajtion said:

can we have proper fixtures in these group threads so we can discuss fixtures

These will go up in their own threads as the tournament goes on. A separate thread will be created for each day of games and these will go up 2-3 days before each game. This ensures discussion doesn't get lost and things don't get confusing.

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With all due respect Marek .... Glik is possible for second game and 3rd (if needed), most Polish paper suggested that he will retire after this world cup from national team anyways.  Nawałka is a smart man, he got a plan if it comes to Poland defense. You have to count that most of those players are hungry for some minutes and results as this is theirs last World cup for most of them. If you watch "Łączy nas Piłka" channel on YouTube you can tell that team morale is off the hook and if it comes to the World cup/ Euro cup: attitude & team physical preparation is the two most important things. Polish federation pumped money in to the camp for them. They send 4 trucks full of equipment to Sochi. I don't see anything less then 7 points for them after 3 games.  let's go biało-czerwoni 

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2 minutes ago, dziabac said:

With all due respect Marek .... Glik is possible for second game and 3rd (if needed), most Polish paper suggested that he will retire after this world cup from national team anyways.  Nawałka is a smart man, he got a plan if it comes to Poland defense. You have to count that most of those players are hungry for some minutes and results as this is theirs last World cup for most of them. If you watch "Łączy nas Piłka" channel on YouTube you can tell that team morale is off the hook and if it comes to the World cup/ Euro cup: attitude & team physical preparation is the two most important things. Polish federation pumped money in to the camp for them. They send 4 trucks full of equipment to Sochi. I don't see anything less then 7 points for them after 3 games.  let's go biało-czerwoni 

:welcome to PL @dziabac :ok 

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Colombia vs Japan

Group H gets underway on Tuesday afternoon when dark horses Colombia play underdogs Japan in a 1pm BST kick-off at the Mordovia Arena in Saransk. This group is arguably one of the most open but, for me, it contains one of the weakest teams in the tournament in Japan.

Colombia had many believing they could go all the way in 2014 with James Rodriguez leading the charge. It was not to be as they succumbed to host nation Brazil in the Quarter-Finals. It feels that their golden chance to win an unlikely World Cup has now passed but that's not to say they won't go far here.

Jose Pekerman's side just about squeaked through qualification automatically by 1 point ahead of Peru after failing to win any of their last four qualification games. It was what appeared a formality suddenly turning into a nervous finale. Peru would have pipped them had they not been held to a draw in their final game.

Japan have long promised to become a strong football nation with a large population, a sound financial infrastructure, and the supporter base to make it happen but, for whatever reason, the promise has yet to be fulfilled. This is their sixth consecutive campaign after their debut in 1998. However, having failed to get past the last 16 so far it feels like this will be another lacklustre World Cup with a squad that isn't to the standard of previous squads they have had.

Akira Nishino can call on a fair number of experienced players but these are players that are solid top flight European league players at best. They hardly possess a player that can change a game. The likes of Gotoku Sakai, Maya Yoshida, Keisuke Honda, Shinji Kagawa, and Shinji Okazaki will be familiar to European football fans but are they of a high enough quality to match those players that will turn out for Colombia, Senegal, and Poland?

A win is vital for Colombia here and I think they know it. Japan are my tips to prop this group up. I just feel their squad lacks the energy and clinical edge up top with a defence that has conceded 8 goals in their past 4 matches against very average opposition. Colombia should really win this game comfortably so I'd tip them for a 2-0 win. Japan might huff and puff but they won't blow Pekerman's house down. On a sidenote, I'd back Rodriguez to score here. He loves the big stage and without a goal in Colombia's last five games he's due one.

Colombia to win @ 1.70 with BetBright

James Rodriguez Anytime Scorer @ 3.25 with Paddy Power

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Poland vs Senegal

Now, here is one of the most interesting group games of the World Cup with Poland taking on Senegal at 4pm BST on Tuesday afternoon at the Otkritie Arena in Moscow. If you are looking for two evenly matched sides then they don't come closer matched than these two.

Adam Nawalka ensured that his Polish side cruised through qualifying. It was an impressive display when you consider they finished 5 points ahead of Denmark, 9 points ahead of a tricky Montenegro, and 12 points ahead of a potentially dangerous Romania in their qualification group. An experienced back-line, a midfield that includes the likes of Grzegorz Krychowiak, Kamil Grosicki, and Jakub Blaszczykowski, plus a strike force of Robert Lewandowksi and Arkadiusz Milik. It's a talented squad that will certainly have expectations of reaching the last 16 at the very least.

I have a personally affiliation with Senegal. My first World Cup winning bet came when I backed them to beat France in the opening game of the 2002 World Cup. It's great to see them at this tournament and it was only when I was doing some research that I realised how seriously they need to be taken as a squad. In terms of natural ability, it could be argued that this side has more about it than the squad that reached the Quarter-Finals 16 years ago.

Just take a look across their squad line-up and it includes Napoli's Kalidou Koulibaly, Anderlecht's Kara Mbodji, Schalke's Salif Sane, Everton's Idrissa Gueye, West Ham's Cheikhou Kouyate, Liverpool's Sadio Mane, Amiens' Moussa Konate, and Bursaspor's Moussa Sow. The list goes on. It's no surprise they breezed through qualifying unbeaten against Burkina Faso, Cape Verde, and South Africa.

I genuinely cannot separate these two sides. I would argue that maybe Poland have the more experienced side but there's a lot of pace in this Senegal side. Poland have a few ageing players at the back that might struggle to deal with that. However, if Poland can nullify Mane then that's a major threat dealt with. I just think the most potent striker in European qualification, Lewandowski, could save Poland here. If pushed, I'd back a draw. I'm not that brave though.

BTTS @ 2.20 with William Hill

Senegal Double Chance @ 1.65 with BetStars

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this forum is solely talking about poland and senegal.....theres 4 teams in the group.....

 

anyways.

James is hurt, may not play tomorrow, i think he will but either way he is hurt.....

i saw value on the draw before but now love the play....japans midfield is solid. this will be a midfield game imo. 

 

i do like senegal value against poland tomorrow and i also like the value on egypt ml but fancy the under much more, especially 1H

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This current Japan side is the worst I have seen for many years. They're an ageing side and have no real good youth to speak of.

I'm based in Japan and the feeling here is that they'll do well to pick up any point in the competition.

Their first game is against a Columbian side that beat them 4-1 at the last World Cup in Brazil. Since then, Japan have gone backwards.

Columbia to win on the -1 handicap at 7/5 looks a fairly no risk pick.

Japan to pick up 0 points is a slightly more risky bet but at 13/2 with Paddy Power, I'll take that gamble.

 

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Colombia - Japan

I see this ending as a 2-0 for Colombia. Even with James out, they have too much pace and power to attack the flanks and whip in crosses to Falcao who is deadly in the air.

Colombia -1EH @ 3.10 

Value in the win to nil too.

 

Poland - Senegal

Glik out for the Polish, who is influential in the organization of defence. I can see the Senegalese speed merchants (Mane, Keita) cutting through with diagonal lines. Poland may seek to dominate midfield but will come up against a sturdy Senegal midfield and will seek to counter through Jakub and Lewa. Koulibaly is no pushover though and the set pieces will be interesting to watch too. Will Milik start against his teammate from Napoli?

BTTS @ 2.20 for me; @StevieDay1983 I am in agreement with your picks today!

I see this as a 1-1 or 1-2 depending. Will probably go for a 1-1 in the predictor games I play but a Senegal victory would not surprise me at all. May change it to 1-2 later on if lineups seem favourable.

 

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A word to the wise. It's not like Poland has been a regular in every World Cup but the ones we qualified to were quite specific regarding our opening fixtures

1978 Poland - West Germany 0-0

1982 Poland - Italy 0-0

1986 Poland - Morocco 0-0

2002 Poland - S.Korea 0-2

2006 Poland - Ecuador 0-2

Hope you get my point by now. Last time Poland scored a goal in their opening fixture during a World Cup was in 1974 against Argentina (3-2).

CS 0-0 @ 6.5 and Senegal clean sheet @3.25 have got plenty of appeal.

 

Edited by Marek76
typos...typos everywhere
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