MABS

Borna Coric vs Carballes Baena
Coric 15/7 on hard courts this year and 2/4 recently would seem way way overpriced against a claycourter like Baena who is really no mug on hard courts. He is 3/4 this year and most importantly 3/4 in current form. Coric has no major weapons and thrives on consistency during rallies. I really think Baena can hold his own comfortably against him. Coric 1/14 is a clear depiction of a piss-take. And just like they heard me, a price slash happens this minute, now Coric 1/12. This match really has the potential to drag for some considerable length considering that their only meeting many years ago ended in a tight 3 setter on clay. Verdict. over 30games in total 10/10

Nikoloz Basilashvili to beat Jack Sock @ 2.6 with Sportingbet
Given Jack Sock's awful record this year, I'm not sure anyone can really be confident in backing him.

Alright, here we go with the final Grand Slam of the season and, before I begin, I'd just like to wish good luck to everyone who's going to be betting on it!
Now - I haven't had a long post in a while and this is a good excuse to have one, so here we go. This season has been quite juicy so far, especially if compared with the disaster that went by the name of 2017, so I'm going to be slightly more ambitious with the first round than I usually am. There are many interesting matches and I have a good feeling about quite a few of them, so I'm going to go for all kinds of bets in the very first round and no outrights at all. If I was asked for some tips, however, I'd have Nadal and Halep as the favourites and Bertens and Tsitsipas as the dark horses. Let's hope all goes well and that there will be a profit to be collected before the second round begins.
Nikoloz Basilashvili to beat Aljaz Bedene at 1.90 with Ladbrokes
The first bet that I'm going to go for is on the man who's made me so many points a few weeks back. That was on clay and this is on hard, but Nikoloz is reasonably universal and the fact is that he should be in a much better position going into this than Bedene, who's had pretty much zero match practice in recent times and who might be here just to collect the check. The last point might be stretching things a bit, but really, one needs to have some matches under the belt given the long match format and Bedene doesn't have that, so opposing him at odds that aren't even all that skinny makes a lot of sense to me.
Jil Belen Teichmann to beat Dalila Jakupovic at 1.67 with BetVictor
The one player that I really liked in the qualifiers was Jil Belen Teichmann and I think that she has every chance of getting a first round win as well. Jakupovic is one of those players that have just dodged having to qualify - and I have to tell you that I'm not sure that she would've been able to go through three rounds of tennis if she was asked to do that honestly. She made a lot of great results during the grass court seasons, with wins over Mertens and even Osaka, but, since then, she's done little of note. And, even more importantly, her last outing ended with her retiring in the middle of the second set. It's the same case as with Bedene then, with us getting two ways of winning here - either Teichmann beats her fair and square or Jakupovic just shows up for the check. I'm more than happy to chance that.
Dayana Yastremska to beat Karolina Muchova at 1.53 with Paddy Power
Karolina Muchova was another player that I quite liked in the qualifiers, but she faces a much sterner test than Teichmann here in the form of the in-form Yastremska, who really has impressed me on quite a few occasions in this season. What I really appreciate about her is the fighting spirit that she brings with herself, every single time that I saw her she was fighting to the end, with her recent match in New Haven being a splendid example of that if I remember correctly. She's one of the younger talents that I've been tracking in this season and she's generally been playing a level above Muchova, so, despite the qualifying success, I think that the Czech is going to come up well short here.
Fernando Verdasco to beat Feliciano Lopez at 1.66 with Ladbrokes
As much as one might like these two guys, it's fair to say that this match is going to be played in the twilight of their careers. That said, it seems to me that Lopez is losing his skills almost as quickly as Ferrer, while Verdasco still has a couple of good performances in himself, which is why I'm going to back him here. The big problem that I have with Lopez is that he seems to have lost a lot of endurance over the last year or two - and that is a tremendously important issue given that this match could go on for four or five sets.
Marco Cecchinato to beat Julien Benneteau at 1.67 with William Hill
Julien Benneteau is another player that's in the twilight of his career. I can't quite remember when exactly he wants to call it quits, whether it's this very US Open or it's one of those French tournaments at the end of the season, but that doesn't really matter. He was quite poor in Winston Salem and I'm not sure that he will be able to put up one last heroic performance. Cecchinato has almost no (or no) wins on hard courts, but he came close to getting some recently against much tougher and sharper players, so this is his chance - and, over five sets, he could even just outlast the Frenchman and win that way.
Vasek Pospisil to beat Lukas Lacko at 1.82 with Pinnacle 
Just a few months ago, I was ranting about how I don't like Pospisil in the singles and I was backing Bolt to win a set against him in one of the grass court tournaments, that much I remember. I haven't fallen in love with him since, don't get me wrong, but he has got some wins and some confidence back, while Lukas Lacko has been just moving around without soul in recent months. I was thinking about backing him against Zeballos in Winston Salem, but I dodged that bet and luckily so. Pospisil also has the home advantage here in a sense, so I'd have him as a somewhat bigger favourite than the odds suggest.
Jason Kubler to beat Roberto Bautista Agut at 4.33 with Ladbrokes
I haven't really covered any underdogs just yet, but here we go, I did manage to find one that I quite like in the form of Jason Kubler, who did really well in a couple of Challengers recently and who could find himself in a favourable spot against Roberto Bautista Agut, who didn't really play on American hard courts in the recent weeks. In fact, he hasn't played for more than a month now, with fitness issues troubling him the last time out. I reckon that he's sufficiently fit given that he's decided to show up, but Kubler is a good enough player to take advantage of any rustiness and I think that he'll be more than fired up for it given all the injury struggles he had in his career. He appears to be without pain now - and the odds for him to win a match against a presumably rusty opponent look tasty enough.
Jan-Lennard Struff (vs. Smyczek) + Agnieszka Radwanska (vs. Maria) at 1.95 with Paddy Power
Robin Haase (vs. McDonald) + Natalia Vikhlyantseva (vs. King) at 2.08 with Bet365
Aryna Sabalenka (vs. Collins) + Daria Gavrilova (vs. Sorribes Tormo) + Kiki Bertens (vs. Kr.Pliskova) at 1.93 with Bet365
Diego Schwartzman (vs. Delbonis) + Barbora Strycova (vs. Lao) + Fabio Fognini (vs. Mmoh) at 1.95 with Paddy Power
Backing a lot of reasonably big favourites isn't particularly difficult, but these picks aren't completely mindless, so there you go. Smyczek has been rather dreadful recently and I'm afraid that the end of his career might be near, Radwanska looked decent against much tougher opposition in recent weeks, Robin Haase has played himself into some solid form (and McDonald's desperate performance against Edmund doesn't inspire any confidence either), Vania King has played pretty much no successful singles in this season, Collins was desperately poor out there in recent weeks (I saw the match against Yastremska and I was shocked actually), Gavrilova nearly upset Sabalenka and SST is two steps down, Kr. Pliskova has been largely non-existent lately, etc. As always, it'd be a bit lucky to see all these guys deliver, but I'm hoping that we get only one letdown in this batch.

Huddersfield vs Cardiff
The first preview for this weekend's action in the Premier League covers my beloved Cardiff travelling to Huddersfield for a 3pm kick-off on Saturday afternoon in a game that really could deliver a heavy confidence blow to the team that comes away with a defeat.
I think nearly every pre-season predictions table I saw before the first game put these two teams finishing in the bottom. If we are being brutally honest, have we seen anything so far that suggests that won't happen? Probably not. Does that mean it's destined to happen? Of course not. It's still early days.
Huddersfield survived by the skin of their teeth last season but that defied expectation. Yes, after two games they are bottom of the Premier League with a -8 goal difference. However, they have played Chelsea away and Manchester City at home. Hardly a fair way to gauge their season so far.
David Wagner has invested in his squad over the summer by making a few loan deals permanent and bringing in some new faces. The trouble his side have had so far is that they can't keep the goals out. Goalkeeper Ben Hamer came under fire particularly after his decision-making against City. Will Wagner opt for Jonas Lossl this time around?
Cardiff started with a very disappointing 2-0 defeat away to Bournemouth. It wasn't a game the Bluebirds necessarily felt they should have won but after a positive opening 30 minutes with a few chances going amiss it was a lesson in Premier League football that felt very similar to our first season in the Championship back in 2003/04 when we lost 2-0 at home to a mediocre Bradford.
Still, the performance against Newcastle was far more encouraging and it now feels we are just a goalscorer away from giving the top flight a proper crack. The signings of Harry Arter and Victor Camarasa have stabilised the fragile central midfield area and the defence is showing they can cope with the attacking threat of Premier League pace and creativity. Until either Kenneth Zohore starts scoring or Neil Warnock shifts to a two man strike force I can't see us getting more than 1 goal in a game if we're lucky. We're relying on set pieces and that's a dangerous game to play.
At this current moment, I can't see us winning a game on the road. I think we might cause Huddersfield problems because they don't like it when teams back off them. It nullifies Wagner's counter attacking game. Can we snatch a narrow win on Saturday? I fancy us to really push the Terriers. Unfortunately, I just think there will be a "must not lose" approach adopted by both sides. I can see a draw but fear we might lose to a single goal. Maybe that's supporter pessimism kicking in though. Interested to hear what @Kenton Schweppes has to say.
Draw @ 3.10 with William Hill
Total Goals Scored Under 2.5 @ 1.53 with Betfred
@Mindfulness, @Pep004, @MaliMisko12, @betcatalog, @sajtion, @godofhorses, @Tiffy, @waynecoyne, @The Sexless Innkeeper, @Magic0024, @malabgd, @Duke_Tm, @dogmeister, @Arkadi Manucharov, @derbent, @fat, @allyhibs, @6avin24, @discipline, @the bastardian, @Bronxie, @Bett, @KikoCy, @teddybear3011, @markus808, @allthethings, @Kenton Schweppes, @vasilli07, @Dylan Lynch, @neilovan, @JKos, @zemo91, @kulikTS, @mrclubbie, @Judeksi, @Henind666, @Teodore, @kilkenny1, @PokerWolf1, @Dave1X2, @real55555, @jazzman02, @Ameer13, @Gedkip, and @AndreBR, what are your thoughts on these games and this preview?

Sorry @BillyHills yes i should 
Man city 1.22
Arsenal 1.36
Chelsea 1.66
20 pt Treble
 

De Minaur -2 games to beat Medvedev at 1.98 with Pinnacle
Medvedev hates to play in such humid conditions. He said himself that he was physically dead at 6-4 5-0 score against Basic. He somehow managed to win with 6-4 score in second set. De Minaur is big fighter and I expect that he will outlast Medvedev in the end.

As much as I like FL, and want him to do well, I do think he is out of his depth at Derby. Harry Redknapp was on Talk Sport yesterday , saying how he phoned Mel Morris and persuaded him Frank was the right man for the job, even though MM wanted someone experienced.  He then went on to say, how Derby need someone experienced on board to help with the transfers. Seemed to me like he was trying to talk himself into a job there.
The Championship is a tough division of football, and I just don't think Frank has the experience to cope with it. He reminds me of when Gus was managing Brighton in that division, trying to play out from the back, play posession based football and getting bullied by stronger more experienced teams. You won't get promoted playing that way.
Gone before Christmas is what I reckon,. As a fan, what do you think?
I have to say, that I came up to Pride Park when Brighton played the 2nd leg of the play off semi final. We were well and truly thrashed by the best display of football I had seen all season. Derby had a great crowd, brilliant fans, and played some amazing football that day. I thought you'd walk the final & deserved to go up. I can't believe that Brighton have made it since, and you haven't!
Best of luck this season, I'll be keeping an interested eye on you

Unfortunately, this is what I ment. Dynamo loses 2-3 in the final seconds of extra-time. Not a good game by Dresden, in particular in the second half. Referee had some slightly strange decisions in favor of Rödinghausen but ok, it was simply not enough and if you take the whole game into account, Dresden played like the past twelve months and that was the reason I was so suspicious about them.

Hey Stevie,
 
I wouldn't recommend an odd at about @1.5 for an away win in DFB-Cup when a team from 2. Bundesliga plays against a fourth tier team. As a Dynamo Supporter myself I see an possible upset spot for Dynamo in this game. Of course, there is a clear gap in quality between the clubs, but Dynamo had a difficult last season and I don't  have the feeling this season will be different. We had discussions about the system, coach Neuhaus has lost authority because of strange decisions even though he hasn't been fired yet. It's all in all a shaky situation and we had problems against a fourth tier league club ( Koblenz and they got relegated at the end of the season ) in the first round of DFB-Cup last year, winning 3-2 even it wasn't a real away match ( neutral ground near Dresden ). I have not much to say about Rödinghausen beside the statistics everyone can look up themselves. Match is played on neutral ground near Rödinghausen.
Even though Dynamo should win in regular time, it's not a good decision to take them at these odds in my opinion. Asian Handicap +1.5 was good under the week. Now it's +1.25 and I'm not sure about that. But I just wanted to add my opinion, so everyone can learn about leagues one is not 100% familiar with.

EVERTON v SAINTS
Having watched most of the opening weekends games, two teams that will struggle are Southampton and Cardiff. Cardiff are just out of their league. All Kudos to Warnock, but they are going to get battered most match days. Southampton just look rubbish to me. I don't rate Mark Hughes and he will have them playing like Stoke pretty soon.
What is the saying "for a man who's only tool is a hammer, everything looks like a nail" ! 
There is nothing going forward ... no pace, little skill, and absolutely no finesse. Is Danny Ings the answer? No way. If you had to combine the number of top players that left Saints in the last 5 seasons, you could field a pretty solid team.  At some stage this selling your best assets will catch up, and the greedy owners will spend time in the Championship.
I thought Richarlison had an amazing game for Everton. 2 goals on your debut is fantastico. I think he could be the buy of the season. That second goal was a gem, as he used the defender to obstruct the goalkeeper view. Clinical. Brilliant top goal of the week for me.
Everton were very good against the middle/bottom teams at home last season. Played 13 games, WON 10, 2 DRAW, 1 LOSS. Pretty decent numbers. OK the style of player under Allardyce was not so great but those numbers are brilliant.  To me the Everton package this year is just miles better. Where they have to improve is holding/beating the top teams at home (awful record last season). A few decent results will get the home fans up and pumped.
The home win at odds of 1.95 is a gift from the bookmakers 
 
BRIGHTON v MAN UNITED
I remain unconvinced that United will challenge this season. Last season the away record was decent, but also had some weird results. Brighton won this fixture last season, and Newcastle also beat Man U.
At 1.72 for the away win, is it worth a bet? Hmmmm , not sure here. One thing I see is a lack of 1st half goals away from Man United. Just 1 goal scored in 9 away games. Pretty poor, overly defensive, trying not to lose, is not the way to set up. 
Three bets that I would be looking at here are the HT draw, NO to both teams to score, and HT/FT (Draw/Man United). Brighton with 6 HT draws in their last 9 at home (league), while United cannot get the ball in the net 1st half away. I do not feel comfortable in this game, and would be betting smaller, and looking at longer odds type bets. 
Two things turn me off the Over 2.5 goals here. One, the machine learning prediction for over 2.5 goals is a little low. Two, Man United seem to down tools when going a goal or two up. There is no intensity to press for the 3rd goal. They will put it in neutral and try to hold on ...
 
A game to observe, and not get involved in.
 
CRYSTAL PALACE v LIVERPOOL
I thought Liverpool were excellent in their opener. Naby Keita had an outstanding game, and just slotted in so easily. Playing at Liverpool will be a perfect fit for him. On the flip side here, Pellegrini had his team set up just waaaay to open. You just cannot play in this manner, against top teams away, in the Premier League. 
What's amazing to me is how well Liverpool have coped without Phillipe Coutinho. It has been a case of Phillipe WHO?  They have not missed him at all. and he filled the coffers for them to make 2 or 3 great signings.
SO first game away for them, and typical Liverpool banana skin game. These are the teams that Liverpool have messed up against in the past. Palace have some bite and teeth. Zaha will be dangerous  but I think the signing of Max Meyer could be a master stroke. 22, pure quality, coming in from Schalke.
I'm looking forward to watching this game as it could be one of the best of the weekend. Can Liverpool avoid the slip up, or will Palace shock them?
 I think the odds for the home win of 6-1 are decent.
 

damn man, i feel the same in almost everything. Nice writeup! Only thing i'd do differently is leicester wolves i'd rather do bts, dont like chelsea here, maybe goals? since both teams are struggling maybe something like o2,5& bts. Otherwise excelent picks

Gllavintoby WOWWW!

Personally, I'm calling quits on the week. It was good and with a decent profit despite Konta losing, so there you go. Good luck to everyone who's still getting involved !

I will keep it short:  to Czech and 4-leaf, as well as the tennis players who did not disappoint!!!
Just AWESOME!!! 

Ryan Harrison to beat Cameron Norrie at 1.80 with bet365
Ryan played a big match last night, didn't drop serve all match and deserved to reach the semifinal. The same cannot be said about Cameron who only reached the semi by benefit of a second set withdrawal by Nick Kyrgios who showed no eagerness at all to play and practically gave the match away to Cameron. Ryan showed some great composure in saving several break points in his last match and his big serve and good baseline play saved him several times in those situations. I expect him to do the same here and eventually reach his second consecutive Atlanta final.

Nikoloz Basilashvili to beat Nicolas Jarry at 2.20 with Unibet
Looks like 50/50 to me. The previous picks on Basil obviously had more value, but I don't see how he's the underdog in this one.

Feliciano also looks pretty bad at the start of the match. Maybe best to leave him alone.

Nikoloz Basilashvili to beat Pablo Carreno-Busta at 3.75 with Unibet
Leonardo Mayer to beat Diego Sebastian Schwartzman at 2.40 with Pinnacle
I like these two underdogs in Hamburg today, both should have a decent chance of winning given their forms and the conditions. I do like PCB and DSS as players, but they are grinders more than anything and the Hamburg conditions aren't exactly great for grinding, as evidenced by many of the recent results. On top of that, Schwartzman also looked injured in his previous match (which is why I'm taking Mayer with a one-set bookie).

Wow. What a job!!!!!! 

That tie-break comeback from Basil. Wow. I think he'll finish this in 2 after that. I don't think Pablo can recover mentally.

@CzechPunter I think both your bets tomorrow looks worth taking and making a parlay of so...
Vaclav Safranek to beat Rogerio Dutra Silva at 5.00 
Nikoloz Basilashvili to beat Pablo Cuevas at 3.25 
Double total odds at 16.25 with bet365 

Nikoloz Basilashvili to beat Pablo Cuevas at 3.22 with Marathonbet
Pretty drastic odds given that Basilashvili has already won three matches against decent opposition in this tournament. Cuevas has always been the better clay court player of the two and everything, but his form has been VERY shaky in recent times and I just don't believe that he can be trusted as a big favorite against players that can actually play, which Basilashvili can. In terms of value, there's only one play to make here and I prefer the outright win over the handicap lines (if Basilashvili loses, chances are that it's going to be by a big margin, he's often that kind of a guy).
Vaclav Safranek to beat Rogerio Dutra Silva at 4.97 with Pinnacle
Odds odds odds. Dutra Silva has many of these odd losses against worse players and Safranek will have the home conditions on his side here, so 5.00?

That's such a misleading and biased statement. Lack consistency? They've played just 3 official games so far - winning at home against Riga (first European game in years, with a new manager and a bunch of new players), so the beginning was indeed poor, but they controlled the ball more, had the better chances and rightfully won. Then lost in the following game in Latvia after the dumbest mistake a GK can make (mind you that was probably the only shot on target for Riga), missed a penalty in the last minute and still managed to get through penalty shootouts. Moreover, they had to play with 10 men from mid second half, through extra time.
And to top off that "lack of consistency" they won the first game in the championship (if I am not mistaken against your favorite team, hence the misleading statement). Once again after a rather slow first half, they completely destroyed their opponents in the second half, controlling the game and scoring two goals. So wow, what a "mediocre" team, right?
Sure, it will be a big blow that Bodurov (captain and solid defender) and Malinov, plus Tiago who is the mastermind behind most attacks will all miss the game, but did you even check the missings in the visitors' squad? Two regular defenders from last season. Also they've sold some of their key players. Lost against a third tier club for the cup last week and they are full of young players with no European experience whatsoever. And to top it off they will be without their manager, who stayed in Austria for personal reasons. 
Of course the Austrians will try not to lose and it is a certain possibility, but to call CSKA a mediocre team compared to the visitors, who are usually a joke in their own championship, is just plain misleading to all those who read your previews.
Home victory just dropped far too much, so there is really no real value anymore, so I'd rather back corners (over 9.5) in the game. With CSKA's fast wingers who will be the main threat and the new striker I suppose there will be plenty of crossings, so I think that's the best choice for tonight. Good luck!

Shuai Zhang to beat Margarita Gasparyan at 1.50 with Paddy Power
I don't believe that Gasparyan is ready to face WTA-level opponents just yet. The road back is going to be long and Zhang really isn't the easiest test in home conditions. She didn't have too many problems against Lisicki today and Gasparyan should be a step down, not a step up.

Krajinovic missed the whole clay season due to a leg injury and he wasn't able to practice on grass till a couple of days ago. He started playing slight points about two weeks ago on hardcourt because he didn't want to play on grass directly after the injury because of the movement. I can't see him being ready for a Best of 5 match tbh.
I can't understand how sb. is writing that he would be "quite shocked" if Krajinovic loses this. 
Jarry is the clear favorite and should take it, he has the right game for grass with his height and power, his serve is a massive weapon. Krajinovic form is more than questionable including his fitness.