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About mtom

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    Newbie Punter
  • Birthday 04/10/1988

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  1. Aren't Mansfield slightly overpriced? I know Oldham are in good form, unbeaten in 5, winning 3 in the process, but they have only theoretical chances for the playoffs, while Mansfield are in contention for promotion. Surely the away win carries some value?
  2. Is Salford worth backing against AFC Fylde? Considering Leyton and Solihull are playing each other and depending on their result Salford might go top of the league with just 1 game to go. Fylde on the other hand are sure to be in the play-offs so in the next two games they have nothing to play for really.
  3. The international break is over (thank God), so here are a couple of bets from me: Friday: 20:00 EET Ludogorets - Vereya Both teams to score: No Odds: 1.66@bet365 Stake: 3/10 Posting this now, because I think the odds won't last until tomorrow afternoon. No need for a deep analysis - ludogorets, even though not as convincing as last season, are still a top team for the Bulgarian A league. On the other hand Vereya are the punching bag. They fired their manager (who took charge just a couple of weeks ago) because, apparently, he was separating the international players from the bulgarians and preferred to field mainly foreigners. This led to some disruptions between the players and the management decided to sack him before things got out of hand. But in reality Vereya are simply awful. Unfortunately, thanks to the idiotic structure of the league, they could lose all their games for the season and still remain in the league (no kidding!). So I simply cant imagine ludogorets conceding at home. They would probably win by 3, 4 goals margin. Saturday: 20:00 EET CSKA Sofia - Cherno more CSKA to win -1 European Handicap (or -1.5 AH) Odds: 1.95@bet365 stake: 2/10 CSKA needs to get back to the winning ways as soon as possible and this weekend they would have the ideal opportunity. Most of their players were involved in their respective national teams which on the one hand means they didn't get much rest, but on the other hand means they are in good form and the manager could rely on them. Most of the injury problems for CSKA are over, with only LB Gefferson being out. They got a new striker during the international break and I suppose we could see him in action at some point during the game. Cherno more are a tough nut to crack, especially under their current manager, who loves defensive football. They would try to stay behind the ball as much as possible and will try to get lucky on the counter attack. This might as well be a very difficult game, but if CSKA scores an early opener then I can see the home team winning comfortably. As for the other games - Botev Vratsa could get something out of Vitosha on Friday, so the DNB option @2 in bet365 seems like a reasonable bet. Dunav's odds at home against Etar on saturday @2.50 are also worth trying. And certainly the most interesting game would be Lokomotiv Plovdiv - Levski on sunday, where the visitors are favorites but I think we could see an upset there. I'd advice a no bet or playing on under 2.5 goals. Beroe should also win easily against Septemvri but the odds are too low. Good luck!
  4. 1-0 FT, bet lost. As I said the odds were too good to miss, but unfortunately Vitosha couldn't find the net. After the early goal from the hosts, I was expecting a bit more, but it turned out to be a dull affair. As for the other games, no real surprises. Perhaps only the 0-0 draw between Botev and CSKA, but usually Botev are a tough nut to crack at home and that was proven once again. Septemvri losing at home was a shocker too, it seems they are in a mini crisis right now. A couple of loses in a row in this thread. Hopefully I'd start picking better games sooner.
  5. Friday: 21:00 EET Cherno More - Vitosha Both teams to score: Yes Odds: 2.62@bet365 Stake: 2/10 Simply based on odds. They are too high IMO. Vitosha obviously have improved significantly compared to last season and this year they already recorded 3 wins, whilst losing 3 too. Their away form is very interesting - 2 wins out of 2, not conceding in the process, neither. Tonight I am going against that record. Cherno More have stabilized after the humiliating 5-1 defeat against Septemvri a couple of weeks ago and are undefeated in 3 consecutive games (drawing twice and winning in the last round away from home against a solid Lokomotiv Plovdiv side). In previous years the hosts relied heavily on home form and this needs improving (they are 1-1-1 at home right now) and even though I suppose they will win tonight, it won't be easy. Cherno more have kept only one clean sheet in 6 games and with those generous odds for BTTS I just have to go for it. Good luck. As for the other games, no particular bets, just some thoughts: Friday: Vereya - Slavia - the value for me is on +1AH on the home side. Yes, they are the punching bag this season, but Slavia is slowly starting to lose the momentum they had at the beginning of the season. A low scoring affair and a draw won't surprise me. Saturday: Septemvri - Etar - home win. Etar's away form is woeful and even though Septemvri are going through tough period too, should be able to win. Botev - CSKA - it would be a tough game for the visitors and even though I think they will win, the odds are low. But over 2.5 goals is worth a shot. Botev Vratsa - Lokomotiv - this game could easily go either way. I'd avoid it altogether Levski - Beroe - Levski are unbeaten and since their managerial change they've improved. Beroe are a tough team to break, but the hosts should win. Under 2.5 goals is also a good option. Sunday: Ludogorets - Dunav - clear home win. Dunav are Ludogorets' puppets, so no problems for the hosts. And even if the game was to be played fairly, Dunav are really, really weak anyway. I expect a convincing home win.
  6. Atalanta seems worth a shot. Copenhagen were lucky not to lose in Italy last week. Having watched both their games against CSKA in the previous round I don't consider them as good as I thought they would be. Yes, they are a typical solid nordic team, but if it weren't for the referees in both games they could've struggled against CSKA. Atalanta started great in Serie A, they play fast and efficient football and should be able to win. The odds look good for an away win.
  7. FC Copenhagen - CSKA Sofia Both teams to score: Yes Odds: 2@bet365 Stake: 2/10 It's do or die for CSKA. After taking the lead last week CSKA lost 2-1 at home, which makes the chances of proceeding very slim, but the team has left for the Danish capital in high spirits and will hope to cause major upset. To be honest, I doubt they can do it, but at least I am certain they will give a hard time to their opponents. Last week CSKA started brightly but then the referee decided to take a decisive part in the game, and after a couple of absolutely shocking and deliberate decision against CSKA (admitted even by Copenhagen's manager), the visitors managed to turn things around and played very well in the second half. CSKA will be without one of their main CB who was sent off last week and without the regular LB who got injured in the training prior to the first match. On the bright side, the captain Bodurov (CB) is back as is midfielder Malinov. CSKA's striker Maurides is on fire having scored 8 goals in 7 games so far and once again he will be the main threat to the danish defense. As for Copenhagen, they showed more maturity and waited patiently their chances. They are aware that tomorrow CSKA will search for an early opening and I am sure they will wait for their chance on the break. Overall, the game should be entertaining and I can see both teams scoring, which makes the odds quite appealing. Good luck!
  8. I think a value bet could be FC Nordsjaelland - Partizan - home win. Partizan are going through a difficult time right now and barely managed to proceed against Lithuanian side Trakai. In the championship they started quite bad too with only one win in 3 games. They sacked the manager, but I wonder how long it will take the new one to get things going. The Danish Nordsjaelland were impressive last season (as far as I followed them), scoring plenty of goals. From the results this season it seems this has changed and they also started somewhat slowly in the league. In the previous round they managed to win against Swedish side AIK. Overall, I just can't see Partizan winning. So a home win at 2.30@bet365 with a 2/10 stake or a DNB option @1.66 with 3/10 stake seems a good option.
  9. CSKA - FC Copenhagen Pick - over 4.5 corners 1st half Odds: 1.80@bet365 Stake: 2/10 of the most important games for CSKA in nearly a decade will be played tomorrow. After years of absence from Europe CSKA returned this season firstly with an unconvincing victory against Riga (after penalty shootout), following much better display against Austrian Admira Wacker to reach to the point where they meet the tough opposition of FC Copenhagen, a team that has established itself well both domestically and internationally. The game tomorrow will be played on the National stadium, in stead of CSKA's home stadium, but this shouldn't be a problem because so far the estimated attendance is about 20k or over. The home team will be once again without experienced defender and captain Bodurov and midfielder Malinov, but neither of them played against Admira, so the team won't be affected that much. Right now CSKA is on fire - unbeaten in the domestic league (3 victories, 7 goals scored, 0 conceded), the attack is lethal and due to the versatility of the wingers the manager has plenty of options. The only weak link is the goalkeeper, who, even though, conceded just twice so far in 7 official games this season (once against Riga and once against Admira) is prone to mistakes. Copenhagen are also flying high at the moment. They had no problems in the previous round and are doing very well in the domestic championship too. Fischer, ex Ajax player, is one of their stars. As are the attacking duo N'doye and Kodro. The European experience which Copenhagen posses should help them, but really, as unbiased as I am trying to be, CSKA right now is pure joy to watch. The morale is high, the fans are behind the team and create amazing atmosphere so even though I suppose the Danish side would edge overall and proceed I am just not that certain that they will win tomorrow. However, I am going with the corners pick, because so far CSKA is producing plenty of them. And I am taking a bit riskier bet with limiting myself only on the 1st half corners for two reasons - first, they covered the line against Riga at home and against Admira too. Secondly, I expect the team to try and put some pressure early on and to use the momentum. Fast wingers + a massive striker (seriously this guy Maurides is huge) = plenty of crossings. On the other hand, the Danish outfit uses plenty of crossing too, in search of N'doye. So I think we can see at least 5 corners in the first half. Good luck
  10. Final score - 0:2 Bet lost Quite the surprise here. But the truth is Slavia were very poor today and Vitosha deserved to win.
  11. Manager: Martin Tomchev Team Name: The_Usual_Suspects Forum username: mtom
  12. Monday: 20:30 EET Slavia - Vitosha Both teams to score: Yes Odds: 2.10@bet365 Stake: 1/10 Just a little try here, because I think the odds are worth a punt. Slavia's European journey came to an end last Thursday with a defeat against Haiduk Split, but they were pretty solid overall and exceeded the expectations. In the league the team started also brightly with a draw against Beroe and an away victory against Lokomotiv Plovdiv. Experienced GK Petkov and the young prospect Hristov are doubtful for tonight. On the other hand Vitosha, the bunching bag last season, seems to have improved a bit and even though they lost their game against CSKA in the previous round, they actually showed some progress and were in fact unlucky not to score. Two players are back after suspension. Overall Slavia is the clear favorite, but I have the feeling Vitosha could turn out to be a stubborn opponent and both teams should be capable of scoring. Low stakes. Good luck!
  13. Final score - Vereya - Beroe 0:2 Bet won Comfortable win for the better team.