mtom

I have few games on my mind. Levski - AEK Larnaca Pick - under 2.5 goals Odds: 1.80@bet365 I'll be stubborn and go for an under once again. Last week the odds were slashed and offered a pretty good cash out option prior to kick-off (went down to 1.36 at some point), but a red card for Levski's defender ruined the bet with AEK winning comfortably 3-0. Now, they will arrive in Sofia with just one aim - try not to concede early. I think this will frustrate levski. Many people were expecting them to be an under-ish team under their new manager, however they have been scoring freely in the domestic championship. This was mainly thanks to playmaker Mariani, but he was sold earlier this week and won't feature tomorrow. He was basically the powerhouse of the team. The game will be played behind closed doors and if this time we don't see any unfortunate events (red card, early goal, penalty etc.) then the bet should be covered easily. Ludogorets - Valur Pick - Ludogorets to score in both halves Odds: 1.72@bet365 I can probably write a master thesis on why I disdain ludogorets, and usually avoid betting on them, but I see some value here. The first game they surprised many people and needed an injury-time equalizer in order to avoid a rather shameful defeat. This time around I truly expect them to show complete different face and win comfortably. They will seek an early goal which will pretty much force Valur to open up more and if that happens then I won't be surprised if we see a goal fest. Mind you that I've been on a pretty bad run recently, so...you know, don't bet your houses on it

What do you think of Bradford against Cambridge? Bradford signed some decent players, especially for League Two level, didn't they? I suppose going straight back up would be the target for the season, while Cambridge are a mid-table team. Is it worth backing the home victory?

Valur - ludogorets Pick - away win @1.90 This is one of the bets of the round IMO. After being eliminated from CL ludogorets will seek consolation in Europa League. Their squad was improved by a few new signings this summer and although most of the players that brought them the success in the domestic league and in Europe are getting too old to play most games on a competitive level, they are still a solid squad. Valur were well beaten by Maribor in CL and overall are much weaker team. This should be an easy away victory. The only slight concern is whether ludogorets will push for a convincing victory in the first leg or will wait to settle the tie in the second, at home. AEK Larnaca - Levski Pick - under 2.5 goals @1.80 Another stand out bet, even though I don't like playing unders. The game will be played in the summer heat in Larnaca (18:30 local time), which might be an advantage to the home team. They weren't convincing in the first leg, beating Moldovan side Petroclub 1-0 in each game, while levski had no problems against Ruzomberog beating them 2-0 twice. Levski should be more defensive this time around and wait for their chances. Given the heat and humidity at that time of the day, I expect a low tempo and a low scoring game and doubt the odds will remain the same in the next few days. Good luck!

Levski - Ruzomberog Pick - Ruzomberog +0.75AH 1.97@bet365 Levski won comfortably the first game in Slovakia (2-0). Tonight's game will be played without fans because Levski is suspended by UEFA. Their manager Hubchev is known for his defensive tactics and even though they started the domestic campaign with a 4-1 victory away from home against Dunav, tonight I expect him to make some rotations, apply a more defensive tactic and just try to avoid conceding an early goal. The latter shouldn't be too difficult because Ruzomberog looked very weak a week ago and I doubt they will threaten Levski too much. Since, there is no need for the hosts to push for a win, of if somehow the guest managed to score a goal the bet should be covered easily. But a boring low scoring draw or a 1 goal margin victory for Levski is what I am thinking of.

Bet lost. Terrible preview, apologies. CSKA were on holiday and I should've predicted they won't put too much pressure on Titograd, hence why they didn't create many chances which could've let to corners. Sorry about that one.

Titograd - CSKA Sofia Pick - over 9 corners@1.87 in bet365 After demolishing their opponents in the first game, tonight CSKA will show up in Podgorica with the idea of giving some of the fragile players chance to show that they deserve a place in the team. Nobody is expecting a huge surprise, and to be honest after seeing how bad Titogarad were, I tend to agree, even though I hate it when a team underestimates their opponents. Last season CSKA were producing plenty of corners mainly because the wingers and the full-backs were crossing the ball in almost every occasion they got. And even though this season so far it seems they will try to use the playmaker Fabrini to get the attacks through the center of the pitch, they still create enough chances which result in corners. In the first game against Titograd there were total of 9 corners (6-3 in favor of CSKA). In the first league game on Friday there were 12 corners (10-2). Tonight I suppose we can see at least 9 corners too. Good luck!

CSKA - Titograd 1-0 half time 4-0 full time Bet won, but boy was I lucky Contrary to what I was expecting CSKA actually played quite bad in the first 30 minutes or so. I suppose they were nervous being their first official game and such, but luckily after a free kick and a goalkeeper's error in the 40th minute they managed to score. The second half was much, much better and 4-0 is the least they could've won.

CSKA Sofia - Titograd CSKA to score in both halves - 1.61@bet365 For the first time in years CSKA has kept most of their good players and strengthened their squad even more by adding 8 new players to the squad. The ambition is clear - challenging the title in the domestic league and having a good run in Europe. The first step to the latter starts today when they host Titograd. The Montenegrin side finished 4th in their domestic league but from what i've read most of their quality players left the team and this season they will rely mostly on younger, more inexperienced players. This is the first official game for CSKA for the season and the fans are eager to see the players in action. The team played some solid friendly games and overall the team morale is high. A slight problem might be the absence of both regular central defenders Chorbadjiiski (suspended) and Bodurov (injured, facing a late fitness test but most likely wont be risked). The right back in this game Atanasov would actually be the only weak link in the squad. Overall CSKA is class above their opponents and if they don't make the foolish mistake of underestimating Titogard they should win easily. The odds for a win are ridiculously low, but I find some value in having CSKA to score in both halves. Last season they loved putting pressure on their opponents from the start and I don't see a reason why shouldn't they do it again tonight. The players are aware that the fans are expecting nothing but a win, so an early goal would definitely make the game easier for them. And from then on I think they should be able to get a couple more in the second half too. Good luck!

Aren't Mansfield slightly overpriced? I know Oldham are in good form, unbeaten in 5, winning 3 in the process, but they have only theoretical chances for the playoffs, while Mansfield are in contention for promotion. Surely the away win carries some value?

Is Salford worth backing against AFC Fylde? Considering Leyton and Solihull are playing each other and depending on their result Salford might go top of the league with just 1 game to go. Fylde on the other hand are sure to be in the play-offs so in the next two games they have nothing to play for really.

The international break is over (thank God), so here are a couple of bets from me: Friday: 20:00 EET Ludogorets - Vereya Both teams to score: No Odds: 1.66@bet365 Stake: 3/10 Posting this now, because I think the odds won't last until tomorrow afternoon. No need for a deep analysis - ludogorets, even though not as convincing as last season, are still a top team for the Bulgarian A league. On the other hand Vereya are the punching bag. They fired their manager (who took charge just a couple of weeks ago) because, apparently, he was separating the international players from the bulgarians and preferred to field mainly foreigners. This led to some disruptions between the players and the management decided to sack him before things got out of hand. But in reality Vereya are simply awful. Unfortunately, thanks to the idiotic structure of the league, they could lose all their games for the season and still remain in the league (no kidding!). So I simply cant imagine ludogorets conceding at home. They would probably win by 3, 4 goals margin. Saturday: 20:00 EET CSKA Sofia - Cherno more CSKA to win -1 European Handicap (or -1.5 AH) Odds: 1.95@bet365 stake: 2/10 CSKA needs to get back to the winning ways as soon as possible and this weekend they would have the ideal opportunity. Most of their players were involved in their respective national teams which on the one hand means they didn't get much rest, but on the other hand means they are in good form and the manager could rely on them. Most of the injury problems for CSKA are over, with only LB Gefferson being out. They got a new striker during the international break and I suppose we could see him in action at some point during the game. Cherno more are a tough nut to crack, especially under their current manager, who loves defensive football. They would try to stay behind the ball as much as possible and will try to get lucky on the counter attack. This might as well be a very difficult game, but if CSKA scores an early opener then I can see the home team winning comfortably. As for the other games - Botev Vratsa could get something out of Vitosha on Friday, so the DNB option @2 in bet365 seems like a reasonable bet. Dunav's odds at home against Etar on saturday @2.50 are also worth trying. And certainly the most interesting game would be Lokomotiv Plovdiv - Levski on sunday, where the visitors are favorites but I think we could see an upset there. I'd advice a no bet or playing on under 2.5 goals. Beroe should also win easily against Septemvri but the odds are too low. Good luck!

1-0 FT, bet lost. As I said the odds were too good to miss, but unfortunately Vitosha couldn't find the net. After the early goal from the hosts, I was expecting a bit more, but it turned out to be a dull affair. As for the other games, no real surprises. Perhaps only the 0-0 draw between Botev and CSKA, but usually Botev are a tough nut to crack at home and that was proven once again. Septemvri losing at home was a shocker too, it seems they are in a mini crisis right now. A couple of loses in a row in this thread. Hopefully I'd start picking better games sooner.

Friday: 21:00 EET Cherno More - Vitosha Both teams to score: Yes Odds: 2.62@bet365 Stake: 2/10 Simply based on odds. They are too high IMO. Vitosha obviously have improved significantly compared to last season and this year they already recorded 3 wins, whilst losing 3 too. Their away form is very interesting - 2 wins out of 2, not conceding in the process, neither. Tonight I am going against that record. Cherno More have stabilized after the humiliating 5-1 defeat against Septemvri a couple of weeks ago and are undefeated in 3 consecutive games (drawing twice and winning in the last round away from home against a solid Lokomotiv Plovdiv side). In previous years the hosts relied heavily on home form and this needs improving (they are 1-1-1 at home right now) and even though I suppose they will win tonight, it won't be easy. Cherno more have kept only one clean sheet in 6 games and with those generous odds for BTTS I just have to go for it. Good luck. As for the other games, no particular bets, just some thoughts: Friday: Vereya - Slavia - the value for me is on +1AH on the home side. Yes, they are the punching bag this season, but Slavia is slowly starting to lose the momentum they had at the beginning of the season. A low scoring affair and a draw won't surprise me. Saturday: Septemvri - Etar - home win. Etar's away form is woeful and even though Septemvri are going through tough period too, should be able to win. Botev - CSKA - it would be a tough game for the visitors and even though I think they will win, the odds are low. But over 2.5 goals is worth a shot. Botev Vratsa - Lokomotiv - this game could easily go either way. I'd avoid it altogether Levski - Beroe - Levski are unbeaten and since their managerial change they've improved. Beroe are a tough team to break, but the hosts should win. Under 2.5 goals is also a good option. Sunday: Ludogorets - Dunav - clear home win. Dunav are Ludogorets' puppets, so no problems for the hosts. And even if the game was to be played fairly, Dunav are really, really weak anyway. I expect a convincing home win.

Atalanta seems worth a shot. Copenhagen were lucky not to lose in Italy last week. Having watched both their games against CSKA in the previous round I don't consider them as good as I thought they would be. Yes, they are a typical solid nordic team, but if it weren't for the referees in both games they could've struggled against CSKA. Atalanta started great in Serie A, they play fast and efficient football and should be able to win. The odds look good for an away win.