Tennis Tips - July 30 - August 5

[CzechPunter]

[CzechPunter]

Wasn't last week good enough? 

Svetlana Kuznetsova (-3.5) to beat Kristie Ahn at 1.80 with Paddy Power

Mihaela Buzarnescu (-3.5) to beat Sachia Vickery at 1.80 with Paddy Power

Malek Jaziri to beat Evgeny Donskoy at 1.90 with Paddy Power

One of the last chances that I'm giving to Kuznetsova, but yeah, she should still be way too strong for Ahn, who's dropped down a level recently. Buzarnescu is a very straightforward pick, on the other hand, I don't rate Vickery all that much, she's just average and home conditions can only get you so far. Finally, Jaziri has always been quite useful on American hards and he has a 4-0 record against Donskoy. The Russian's run in Umag means nothing to me, everyone's beating Lorenzi these days and Dzumhur was a bit mental on the day.

[four-leaf]

Max Marterer (-1.5 sets) to beat Jurgen Zopp at 2.38 with Paddypower

Going for this one early. Odds should be lower near the start of the match. Max beat Jurgen in Roland Garros this season in the third round very easy in straight sets and now Jurgen comes off a semi showing in Gstaad where he lost to the tournament winner Matteo Berrettini in straight sets. I think Jurgen will not have enough steam left to challenge Max here and Max is also a better player and should easily win this in straight sets again. Great odds for an outcome I feel pretty sure about.

[Torque]

I've taken Kuznetsova on the match line, as it seems too risky to me to back her to cover any kind of handicap given her form. She hasn't won on a hard court in nearly a year and whilst you'd expect a player of her quality to snap that streak sooner rather than later it might not be pretty. I'll be keeping my fingers crossed that the Russian not only wins, but covers the game line as well 

[four-leaf]

Peter Polansky to beat Ryan Harrison at 2.63 with Paddypower

Special occasion. I would never go against Ryan if Peter or any other player ranked below 100 is on the other side of the net unless Ryan has had to play singles final and doubles final in Atlanta and playing 3 set matches every singles match he played last week plus minimum 1 hour of doubles match. Ryan played average 3 hours of tennis every day he played in Atlanta, only his first matchday was shorter then 3 hours because he didn't play double so that day was 2h 10min. Peter comes from winning Granby challenger and should not be so tired after that having won all 5 matches except final in straight sets so he's in good form and he won a match in Los Cabos last year and with a likely fatigued Ryan I can see Peter winning this. Taking the bet with a one-set bookie if Ryan retires after first set.

[four-leaf]

Svetlana Kuznetsova (-1.5 sets) to beat Kristie Ahn at 2.20 with Paddypower

At 2.20 I'm willing to give Sveta a go. Kristie hasn't been all that good this season to acctually challenge for top 100 which she did last season. She recently lost to no.490 Sanaz Marand in Ashland ITF and before to no.251 Ashley Kratzer in Berkeley ITF. That's just about the way Kristies season has looked and she's lost heavily to every top 100 player she's faced. Now Sveta isn't top 100 anymore after not defending her points from last season from the Wimbledon quarterfinal. She's had a tough season but I think Kristies season has been even tougher and she doesn't have the quality to extend rallies without making errors in the end when facing players of Svetas calibre and her first serve is weak and the second even weaker. Even if Sveta plays a bad match here she could still win in straight sets so 2-0 Sveta for me.

[four-leaf]

Rudolf Molleker to beat Joao Domingues at 2.35 with Unibet

Rudolf is the new german next gen star after stunning the field by winning Heilbronn challenger before Roland Garros. Now he's facing Joao who is nothing special in challenger Liberec, Joao has lost 3 of his last 4 matches to Matteo Viola, Gleb Sakharov and Lukas Rosol so that's enough for me to say Rudolf will not be an easier match. When Molleker played in Hamburg last year and beat Leo Mayer in qualies, he was No. 923 in the ATP Rankings. Now, he was at a career-best No. 271, and thanks to his victory against David Ferrer, has continued to rise this Monday to No. 251 and he will likely keep on rising and this match should just be another stop on the way. I'll be very surprised if he loses this.

[Torque]

Kuzzy smashed it. Happy days 

[CzechPunter]

Prajnesh Gunneswaran to beat Cameron Norrie at 4.00 with Unibet

Overrating Norrie much? The conditions in Mexico are going to be fairly new for him, while Gunneswaran has already played two matches in them and is a pretty useful player overall as well. At 4.00, I'm willing to have a cheeky bet on the Indian (the set and games handicaps are playable too).

[four-leaf]

20 hours ago, four-leaf said:

Rudolf Molleker to beat Joao Domingues at 2.35 with Unibet

Rudolf is the new german next gen star after stunning the field by winning Heilbronn challenger before Roland Garros. Now he's facing Joao who is nothing special in challenger Liberec, Joao has lost 3 of his last 4 matches to Matteo Viola, Gleb Sakharov and Lukas Rosol so that's enough for me to say Rudolf will not be an easier match. When Molleker played in Hamburg last year and beat Leo Mayer in qualies, he was No. 923 in the ATP Rankings. Now, he was at a career-best No. 271, and thanks to his victory against David Ferrer, has continued to rise this Monday to No. 251 and he will likely keep on rising and this match should just be another stop on the way. I'll be very surprised if he loses this.

Ok that was surprising. Joao must have turned in an ultra-defensive display in the first set because Rudolf was nowhere near winning the set and after that it went all downhill.

[four-leaf]

Denis Istomin to beat Philipp Kohlschreiber at 3.62 with Pinnaclesports

Denis owns a 5-2 record in this matchup and has beaten Philipp on clay 2014 in Munich and they met on the grass of Stuttgart this season and Denis won 7-6 7-6. Denis has played some good tennis so far last days coming through the qualies and managing to beat Federico Delbonis pretty nicely in straight sets. Philipp may be the reigning champ in Kitzbuhel but he's got obvious problems with Denis and coming into the tournament without having played a match can always be tough against a dangerous player like Denis. Philipp lost in Hamburg first round last match to the champ Niko Basil and his season hasn't been all that good so there's every chance he'll be in a heap of trouble tomorrow.

[four-leaf]

Peter Polansky to beat Daniel Elahi Galan at 1.63 with Pinnaclesports

Daniel has a 4-1 record on hardcourt on the ATP tour but those wins comes from Bogota where he beat Pere Riba and 3 davis cup wins against not so good hardcourt players with Thiago Monteiro being the best he's beaten in Davis cup on hard. He came from a clay challenger title in Italy to play in Los Cabos but lost badly in qualies to Marcos Giron. He may have known he was gonna get into maindraw anyway since it was kind of obvious that Ryan Harrison would pull out but now he faces a Peter in some kind of form after his Granby challenger title where he defeated some players out of top 200 including fellow canadian veteran Frank Dancevic. But it was nonetheless quite good effort by him to win the title and a title is always a title no matter who you faced. He also won his round 1 match in Los Cabos last season against similar opposition as Daniel.

Amanda Anisimova to beat Qiang Wang at 1.775 with Pinnaclesports

Amanda has played well to qualify for San Jose and Qiang comes of her first ever title in Nanchang but that was on clay in China and to travel some distance and play on a different surface could be tough for her just a few days after. Also Amanda beat Qiang in Miami earlier this season so it's highly possible she wins again.

[PrivateTips]

17 minutes ago, four-leaf said:

Peter Polansky to beat Daniel Elahi Galan at 1.63 with Pinnaclesports

Daniel has a 4-1 record on hardcourt on the ATP tour but those wins comes from Bogota where he beat Pere Riba and 3 davis cup wins against not so good hardcourt players with Thiago Monteiro being the best he's beaten in Davis cup on hard. He came from a clay challenger title in Italy to play in Los Cabos but lost badly in qualies to Marcos Giron. He may have known he was gonna get into maindraw anyway since it was kind of obvious that Ryan Harrison would pull out but now he faces a Peter in some kind of form after his Granby challenger title where he defeated some players out of top 200 including fellow canadian veteran Frank Dancevic. But it was nonetheless quite good effort by him to win the title and a title is always a title no matter who you faced. He also won his round 1 match in Los Cabos last season against similar opposition as Daniel.

I would rather skip Polansky. Remember that he won tournament in Granby and between final there and match in Los Cabos he will have maybe 50 hours. But still he had to travel from Granby to Los Cabos 5500 km so I won't be surprised if he arrived there just a few hours before match and won't have chance even for 1 training session to feel the courts. Like you mentioned Galan is much less experienced on hard courts but still he spent some time in Los Cabos and could be better adopted- he is a lucky looser here and it happen quite offen that lucky loosers go far in the tournaments and guys who have just won some tournament lose in 1st rounds of next due to tiredness mainly. Worth to add that it is so hot in Los Cabos- around 30 degrees.

[South_African_Punter]

Jared Donaldson (-2.5) to beat Jordan Thompson at 1.80

Although Jared hasn't been particularly good on the clay or grass, I will back him to win here. He beat Thompson earlier this year in Australia, and his favourite surface is clearly hard courts. Furthermore, the crowd will be behind him, giving him further impetus to end his current bad run.

[four-leaf]

4 hours ago, PrivateTips said:

I would rather skip Polansky. Remember that he won tournament in Granby and between final there and match in Los Cabos he will have maybe 50 hours. But still he had to travel from Granby to Los Cabos 5500 km so I won't be surprised if he arrived there just a few hours before match and won't have chance even for 1 training session to feel the courts. Like you mentioned Galan is much less experienced on hard courts but still he spent some time in Los Cabos and could be better adopted- he is a lucky looser here and it happen quite offen that lucky loosers go far in the tournaments and guys who have just won some tournament lose in 1st rounds of next due to tiredness mainly. Worth to add that it is so hot in Los Cabos- around 30 degrees.

I wouldn't be too worried about the travel distance from Granby to Los Cabos and I'm not worried about the amount of hours between the final and this first round match either. Last season in July he played three straight finals in Canada and lost all finals but still he came to Los Cabos and beat a better hardcourt player (Yasutaka Uchiyama) than Daniel Elahi Galan in the first round by 2-0 and even managed to play a tight second round match with Thanasi Kokkinakis. With that in mind I'm acctually thinking of Peter -1.5 sets at 2.51 with Pinnaclesports.

[Teodore]

On 29.07.2018 at 5:30 PM, CzechPunter said:

Wasn't last week good enough? 

Svetlana Kuznetsova (-3.5) to beat Kristie Ahn at 1.80 with Paddy Power

Mihaela Buzarnescu (-3.5) to beat Sachia Vickery at 1.80 with Paddy Power

Malek Jaziri to beat Evgeny Donskoy at 1.90 with Paddy Power

One of the last chances that I'm giving to Kuznetsova, but yeah, she should still be way too strong for Ahn, who's dropped down a level recently. Buzarnescu is a very straightforward pick, on the other hand, I don't rate Vickery all that much, she's just average and home conditions can only get you so far. Finally, Jaziri has always been quite useful on American hards and he has a 4-0 record against Donskoy. The Russian's run in Umag means nothing to me, everyone's beating Lorenzi these days and Dzumhur was a bit mental on the day.

Another amazing job!

[CzechPunter]

Yeah, 3-1 this week so far, not bad. I don't see much for today though.

[CzechPunter]

Good one with Istomin @four-leaf! A bizarre match, but with the right result!

[four-leaf]

Many good bets posted this week so far including the one from @South_African_Punter.. I was just a bit wrong about Rudolf Molleker and Max Marterer -1.5 sets but that's life, nothing to hang around about.

[four-leaf]

Michael Mmoh to beat Peter Polansky at 1.666 with Pinnaclesports

Michael is simply just the better player here. Peter had some issues with Daniel Elahi Galan and he didn't play well but Daniel started to make huge mistakes in third set and practically gave the match away although I have to give credit to Peter who turned in an ultra defensive performance at times and served pretty well but still it was a lot about the colombian giving many points away in third set that allowed Peter to turn things around. They have met once on hard in a challenger final which Michael won 2 years ago pretty easily in 3 sets (6-1 in the decider). Michael is the more promising player here who has been knocking on the top 100 door for a while now and I see him as a future top 100 player defenitely while Peter just hangs around 110-150. Both these players have the chance here to gain a lot in their quest for a top 100 ranking but Michael has more talent and that means he doesn't have problems when it comes to finding good angles and difficult shots. He's already been in an ATP quarter final this season and should be able to find his way to it again.

Amanda Anisimova to beat Mihaela Buzarnescu at 2.17 with Pinnaclesports

Amanda the reigning US open junior champ still only 16 years old, turns 17 august 31 and already possesses shotmaking that makes her a possible star in the future. I say possible because I don't dare to make any bold predictions about her future but still she's only 16 and can already blow anyone off the court including the romanian Mihaela who also had big problems in her first round match against Sachia Vickery. I see big things happening in the near future for Amanda and this is like her last also a winnable match for her.

Sam Querrey (-1.5 sets) to beat Egor Gerasimov at 1.63 with Pinnaclesports

I don't see where these odds come from. Egor could be a joke in this match if he doesn't get his first serve going and he only beat Bernard Tomic because he didn't show up or just came to say I don't feel like playing which looked like it was the case that it's so often has been with Bernard. He gave away a match to someone who never even had won an ATP maindraw match. Egor had played I think 1 time at ATP level maindraw before Los Cabos and tried to qualify without success a few times. He's not good. Sam is the reigning champ in Los Cabos and he only needs to show up with his B game to win this but I prefer that he shows up with his A game.

Sofia Kenin to beat Johanna Konta at 3.51 with Pinnaclesports

Overrating Jo Konta mutch? Sofia is given 3.26 even though she's ranked 68 at 19 years old. She's started to make big progress on faster surfaces this season Sofia so I'd watch out for her unless it's clay where she hasn't had mutch success. I don't know what happened with Serena but I'm not making a big thing out of that win by Jo Konta that's for sure. Sofia is on the rise and will continue to be dangerous when playing on hard or grass.

Edited August 1, 2018 by four-leaf

[four-leaf]

How wrong things can go, Jo Konta is as good as her win against Serena and Egor Gerasimov is on a quite decent level so nothing seems to go right this time. Only Anisimova left then. But I'll post some more picks.

 

[four-leaf]

Denis Istomin to beat Max Marterer at 2.52 with Pinnaclesports

Going with Denis again could be the right way to go. Max had no form after RG before beating Jurgen Zopp and Mikhail Kukushkin and I think I rate Denis form a bit higher at this time. He had a medical timeout when he played Philipp Kolhschreiber to wrap his foot and that's the only concern about Denis. Considering Pinnacle doesn't void on retirements this could be a bit dangerous pick but I belive Denis is on a roll and then he's dangerous so I'm gonna go with him again. 

[CzechPunter]

Yunseong Chung to beat John Wolf at 2.04 with Pinnacle

Two promising players meeting here, but I prefer Chung at the odds and given that he's been incredibly solid against players of Wolf's level results-wise so far this year. He isn't going to underestimate Wolf, so I'm not exactly sure what makes the American the favourite here.

[South_African_Punter]

Taro Daniel to beat Jaume Munar at 2.05

Daniel has been on a very good run recently, notching up two wins in Gstaad, losing to Bautista-Agut in the quarterfinals. He has also played two matches in Kitzbuhel, winning easily against an out-of-form Struff and fatigued Laslo Djere. Munar also went out against Bautista-Agut in Gstaad, although he did take a set off him, unlike Daniel. In Kitzbuhel, he has beaten Hanfmann, however, he did drop a set, and then coasted to victory against an out-of-form Haase. However, the main deciding factor for me was that Daniel beat Munar only last year, 6-2 6-1, in Munar's home town. So I will back him in this match-up.

Edited August 2, 2018 by South_African_Punter

[four-leaf]

5 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Yunseong Chung to beat John Wolf at 2.04 with Pinnacle

Two promising players meeting here, but I prefer Chung at the odds and given that he's been incredibly solid against players of Wolf's level results-wise so far this year. He isn't going to underestimate Wolf, so I'm not exactly sure what makes the American the favourite here.

I was thinking about this one too yesterday when looking through the Pinnacle tennisodds and I don't know what exactly makes the american favourite either.

Edited August 2, 2018 by four-leaf

[four-leaf]

3 minutes ago, South_African_Punter said:

Taro Daniel to beat Jaume Munar at 2.05

Daniel has been on a very good run recently, notching up two wins in Gstaad, losing to Bautista-Agut in the quarterfinals. He has also played two matches in Kitzbuhel, winning easily against an out-of-form Struff and fatigued Laslo Djere. Munar also went out against Bautista-Agut in Gstaad, although he did take a set off him, unlike Daniel. In Kitzbuhel, he has beaten Hanfmann, however, he did drop a set, and then coasted to victory against an out-of-form Haase. However, the main deciding factor for me was that Daniel beat Munar only last year, 6-2 6-1, in Munar's home town. So I will back him in this match-up.

If I only had the guts to follow on this. Jaume is better than last year so I don't dare to go against an improved player.

[Cunni77]

Kei Nishikori Win vs Denis Shapovalov

Shapovalov had come from a set down to win his last match and this might have taken a lot out of him.

Andy Murray Win vs Marius Copil

Murray is by far better player and he also won the last and only meeting between them. Backing Murray to reach the 1/4 finals

[CzechPunter]

Hi and welcome to PL @Cunni77! Could you please always post the odds of your selections? 

[four-leaf]

Martin Klizan/Dusan Lajovic over 24.5 games at 2.13 with Pinnaclesports

They've met 3 times before and 2 of those times they played 3 sets with minimum 26 games all 3 times on clay and Martin owns a 2-1 record having won the last meeting in 2015 in their first and only until today ATP maindraw encounter and Martin won 2-1 and it was then it finished with 26 games. They're both good on clay and can play well on the surface and there's nothing suggesting this will finish in under 23 games so I think at least this will be 25 games and it almost requires a 3 set match to be played. All 3 previous matches today have ended after 2 sets so I think this one will likely end after 3 sets. Hopefully not a bad guess 

[Baracca]

11 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Yunseong Chung to beat John Wolf at 2.04 with Pinnacle

Two promising players meeting here, but I prefer Chung at the odds and given that he's been incredibly solid against players of Wolf's level results-wise so far this year. He isn't going to underestimate Wolf, so I'm not exactly sure what makes the American the favourite here.

Starting to follow u guys!!!! First pick wins!!!!!