-
Posts
1,143 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Reputation Activity
-
Pirate53 got a reaction from BillyHills in Naps - Monday Oct 8th
Windsor 16.35 Sir Thomas Gresham 1pt win @ 13/2 Bet365
-
-
Pirate53 reacted to Xtc12 in Naps - Monday Oct 8th
15.15 Tipperary - Oh'herewego - 1 Pt Win @ 8\1 Bet365
-
Pirate53 reacted to BillyHills in Naps - Monday Oct 8th
330 Windsor
Mr Reckless EW 9/1 PP
Been trying to find something of value for Monday and its not easy. Come up with Mr Reckless trained by the in form Jamie Osborne and ridden by Nicola Currie who is good value for her claim.
Ran on the AW the last twice and although not disgraced (3rd to Wissahickon) its probably the reason he's such a big price, if you look at his form on turf its measures up to this field. He was handy last time and I think he may be better coming from off the pace as he did when he won at Wetherby, be interesting to see if they go back to those tactics.
-
Pirate53 got a reaction from BillyHills in Naps - Thurs Oct 4th
Lingfield 13.50 Space Talk 1pt win @ 11/2 Bet365
-
Pirate53 got a reaction from BillyHills in Naps - Tues Oct 2nd
Ayr 15.45 Redarna 1pt win @ 9/1 Bet365
-
Pirate53 got a reaction from BillyHills in Naps - Sunday Sept 30th
Epsom 16.45 Allegiant 1pt win @ 13/2 Bet365
-
Pirate53 reacted to YSM in Racing Chat - Thursday Sept 13th
Win bets :
Ffos Las 2.15 The Groove 10-3
Ffos Las 2.50 Smashing Lass 6-4
Ffos Las 3.25 Valentino Sunrise 7-1
Hamilton 4.50 Island Song 5-2
Hamilton 5.55 Alabanza 5-1
Hamilton 6.55 Nuns Walk (nap) 10-3
E/W bets:
Doncaster 1.50 Stay Classy 12-1
Doncaster 4.05 Big Lachie 16-1
Doncaster 5.10 Los Camachos 20-1
Hamilton 6.25 Northern Society 20-1
-
Pirate53 reacted to BillyHills in Ten Top Tracks To Follow - Flat Edition
Cracking Day today
Results
As: Won 11/4, Won 6/1, Won 9/1 EW (173.75)
Km: Won 20/1 EW (135.00)
Wv: Won 4/1, Won 16/1 EW, Won 14/1 EW, NR (260.00)
Stakes: 220pts
Returns: 568.75pts
Totals: +1374.81pts
Have a day off tomorrow people
Next: Chelmsford Monday
-
Pirate53 got a reaction from skylark2009 in Flat Kelly staking
2.1 available at Matchbook. (0% commission on horses).
-
-
Pirate53 got a reaction from BillyHills in Naps - Sunday Sept 2nd
Worcester 16.45 Rubys Cube 1pt win @ 8/1 WH
-
Pirate53 reacted to BillyHills in Racing Chat - Monday Aug 13th
630 Windsor
Revich 13/2 betfair
Trappy little handicap at Windsor in which I give a big shout to the top weight Revich, Not really ran a bad race all season and got his head in front at Chester two starts back.
Last time out ran a blinder in a big field at Goodwood and wasn't ideally placed on the outside so could have even done better than his 6th spot. Looks to have every chance here to me and 6/1 is too big.
-
Pirate53 got a reaction from BillyHills in IT'S ALL ABOUT THE MATHS
....and papertrade going forward as well! (Backtest too much and you just end up backfitting!) Get your drift tho' BH.
-
Pirate53 reacted to Valiant Thor in IT'S ALL ABOUT THE MATHS
Im not an advocate of backing multiple horses in the same race as its hard enough to beat the bookmaker without betting against yourself in the process,but each to their own.
You need 2 races in 3 (66%) min correct to make a profit , anything under that you will lose money, no staking plan in the world can change that.
Your using variable staking per bet making you risk bearing so your variance per bet graphed out will look like a map of the alps.
For a start make your bets more risk averse.(the longer you stay in the game the more chance you have)
Have a fixed common denominator say 30pts per race for all races ( or whatever denomination you feel comfortable with) and dutch all the horses for that day together to give an equal payout whichever wins
ie 1 race 30pts dutched between 3 horses or 2 races = 60pts dutched between 6 horses etc etc
This wont make losing races into winners but should reduce the variance .
As mentioned before , if possible try and stick to non-handicap races, if non opt for the better class Handicap races over lower ones, as handicap races by nature are there to be exploited by trainers.
If you have multiple races in a day try to keep it to the the race you think is the best bet for the day, more races and higher volume betting only makes you lose faster if your not hitting your winning %age just the same as increasing stakes after a loser would
Apart from the above keep detailed record and you'll soon see where the problems lie.
ATB
VT
-
Pirate53 reacted to Xtc12 in Conflict Cup
This was 400 bets in GB since I started the thread, still over a 40% strike rate, in profit with an ROI of 8%.
Pity couldn't celebrate with a win.
-
Pirate53 got a reaction from jonshell in Racing Chat - Wednesday June 13th
Or how about a sexy double?!
3.30 Yarmouth: Sexy Secret 9/1
4.40 Haydock: Sexy Beast 5/2
Yay, get in you sexy b's!!!
-
Pirate53 got a reaction from BillyHills in Racing Chat - Wednesday June 13th
Or how about a sexy double?!
3.30 Yarmouth: Sexy Secret 9/1
4.40 Haydock: Sexy Beast 5/2
Yay, get in you sexy b's!!!
-
Pirate53 got a reaction from DanV89 in Restricted account
A few pointers to keep those accounts a bit longer:
Don't withdraw immediately after a win. Withdraw once a month on the same day, maintaining a decent balance in the account.
Withdraw an amount slightly higher than you want. Pay back in the extra after a few days. (Fools the computer a little!)
Don't use oddschecker or any other comparison site. (You can check the prices but bet direct on bookies site.)
Block your IP with a VPN
Block iesnare and other trackers with a blocker like Ghostery
Spread your bets over at least 4 bookies.
Don't bother trying to keep Stan James or Boyles open, you won't!
Hope this helps.
-
Pirate53 got a reaction from BillyHills in Restricted account
A few pointers to keep those accounts a bit longer:
Don't withdraw immediately after a win. Withdraw once a month on the same day, maintaining a decent balance in the account.
Withdraw an amount slightly higher than you want. Pay back in the extra after a few days. (Fools the computer a little!)
Don't use oddschecker or any other comparison site. (You can check the prices but bet direct on bookies site.)
Block your IP with a VPN
Block iesnare and other trackers with a blocker like Ghostery
Spread your bets over at least 4 bookies.
Don't bother trying to keep Stan James or Boyles open, you won't!
Hope this helps.
-
Pirate53 got a reaction from corky in Naps - Friday May 4th
Musselburgh 16.10 Four Kingdoms 1pt win @ 5/1 Lads
-
Pirate53 got a reaction from BillyHills in Winter AW System
Saturday Result:
Chelmsford 19.15 Grandfather Tom lost -1pt
Total Staked 59
Returns 65.68
This system runs November-March so thats it until November!
I ran this system live from mid November and my returns were better than the circa 10% ROI here.
-
Pirate53 reacted to richard-westwood in Racing Chat - Sunday March 25th
Drifts to 11/1 And still wins .....and ground was against him too .....good performance
-
Pirate53 got a reaction from Xtc12 in Draw at halftime system
Seeing as the last one was in 2011 its unlikely!
-
Pirate53 reacted to BillyHills in Ten Tracks To Follow - Jumps
Results
Won 8/1 EW £60.00 Won 7/2 £45.00
Stakes 70pts
Returns 105pts
Total Stakes: 4290pts
Total Returns: 4704.09
Profit : 414.09pts
Next stop = 27th Feb at Catterick