IT'S ALL ABOUT THE MATHS

[F.A.B.]

Question : How many times have you considered two or three horses in a race and backed the wrong one ?

Answer : We all have and here's the solution.

I have been one of those thousands of punters who has tried for the last 50 + years to win money from the bookies.

After donating to their pensions for all those years i decided it was time to try to turn the odds in my favour. I believe I have now achieved that.

I have developed a betting plan that regularly gives me well over a 50% strike rate.

As long as you rigidly stick to some simple rules you will quickly start to make a profit We will be backing the first 3 horses in the betting of each race.

Rule 1.

The betting forecast favourite must be 2/1 or bigger.

Rule 2

There must be at least a 2 points gap between the 3rd favourite and fourth favourite. .

This is where the maths comes in.......let me give you an example

Betting forecast 3/1 Bonnie and Clyde, 4/1 Spirit of St. Louis, 5/1 Run a mile, 7/1 Escapologist, 8/1 Lightning Linda 10/1 bar

As you will see there is a 2 point gap between the third and fourth favourite (5/1 & 7/1)

Multiply the odds of the first three in the betting ie. 3 x 4 x 5 = 60 then divide the three numbers by the 60  eg 60/3 = 20, 60/4=15, 60/5=12 

Therefore our stakes would be as follows: 20 points win Bonnie & Clyde,

                                                                   15 points win Spirit of St.Louis

                                                                   12 points win Run a Mile

Total stakes = 47 points

If Bonnie & Clyde wins we win 20 x 3/1 = 60 points less 27 points losses = 33 points profit

If Spirit of St. Louis wins we win 15 x 4 = 60 points less 32 points loss = 28 points profit

If Run a Mile wins we win 12 x 5 = 60 points less 35 points loss = 25 points profit.

 

As you will see whichever horse wins we win the same gross profit and despite inevitably having two losers we make a net profit

 

At the time of writing these would be the qualifying races today.

4.10 Catterick

Bal De Rio 11/4 

Italian Riviera 7/2

Kittileo 4/1

 

5.25 Yarmouth

La Isla Bonita 11/4

Shyjack 11/4

Chetan 3/1

 

 

 

 

 

 

[F.A.B.]

It will come good i promise

[F.A.B.]

Well, a 14/1 shot Airton was the surprise winner of the Catterick 4.10 race but we came good with La Isla Bonita who was 11/4 early doors shortened in to 11/8. So we start off with a 50% strike rate intact.

[BillyHills]

Are the prices you are quoting from a betting forecast or via a bookie?

ie; was it 11/4 winner or 11/8 winner?

Just asking before you start a P/L account of your bets.

Good luck. Like a system

[F.A.B.]

Hi Billy 11/4 was available on Paddy Power this morning 11/8 was the S.P.

[F.A.B.]

Following on from yesterdays selections the stakes would have been as follows :

4.10 Catterick betting forecast odds 11/4, 7/2, 4/1 I usually round the odds up or down to avoid working out fractions. So subsequently i would work on 2/1 , 3/1, 4/1 giving the calculation of 2 x 3 x 4 = total stakes 24.

Giving individual stakes of 12, 8 and 6

Result Loss of 26 points

5.25 Yarmouth betting forecast odds of 11/4, 11/4, 3/1 rounded up to 3/1, 3/1, 3/1 giving the calculation of 3 x 3 x 3 = total stakes of 27

Individual stakes of 3, 3 and 3 

Result W 11/4 (best price) L L = Profit 2.25

Net Loss to date of 23.75 

We will see what today brings.

[F.A.B.]

Today's qualifying races are : 

All current odds on Paddy Power

1.50 Newmarket

First Eleven 9/4 

Guiseppi Garibaldi 11/4

Loxley 100/30

Stakes rounded to 2/1, 3/1, 4/1 = 2 x 3 x 4 = 24

Bet 12 points, 8 points, 6 points.

2.30 Dundalk

Reckless Lad 9/4

Poetic Light 9/4

Eos 9/2

Stakes rounded to 2/1, 2/1, 4/1 = 2 x 2 x 4 = 16 

Bet 8 points, 8 points, 6 points

3.40 Dundalk

Military Hill 4/1

Pedisnap 9/2

Shelbe 5/1

Stakes rounded to 4/1, 4/1, 5/1 = 4 x 4 x 5 = 80

Bet 20 points, 20 points, 16 points

3.50 Carlisle

Inner Circle 11/4

Ghayadh 3/1

Alexandrakollontai 5/1

Stakes rounded to 2/1,3/1, 5/1 = 2 x 3 x 5 = 30

Bet 15 points, 10 points, 6 points

4.10 Newmarket

Hand Maiden 3/1

Lovers Knot 3/1

Poetry 3/1

Stakes 3 x 3 x 3= 27

Bet 9 points, 9 points, 9 points

4.15 Dundalk

Waitingfortheday 9/4

Queen Rebab 11/4

Beau Rocko 4/1

Stakes rounded to 2/1, 3/1, 4/1 = 2 x 3 x 4 = 24

Bet 12 points, 8 points, 6 points

5.20 Newmarket

Leo Minor 100/30

Shaheen 7/2

Midsummer Knight 9/2

Stakes rounded to 3/1,3/1, 4/1 = 3 x 3 x 4 = 36

Bet 12 points, 12 points, 9 points

 

 

[BillyHills]

3 hours ago, F.A.B. said:

Following on from yesterdays selections the stakes would have been as follows :

4.10 Catterick betting forecast odds 11/4, 7/2, 4/1 I usually round the odds up or down to avoid working out fractions. So subsequently i would work on 2/1 , 3/1, 4/1 giving the calculation of 2 x 3 x 4 = total stakes 24.

Giving individual stakes of 12, 8 and 6

Result Loss of 26 points

5.25 Yarmouth betting forecast odds of 11/4, 11/4, 3/1 rounded up to 3/1, 3/1, 3/1 giving the calculation of 3 x 3 x 3 = total stakes of 27

Individual stakes of 3, 3 and 3 

Result W 11/4 (best price) L L = Profit 2.25

Net Loss to date of 23.75 

We will see what today brings.

Why are the total stakes in bet 2 only adding up to 9 (not 27) yet in bet 1 they added up to the totals stakes of 24?

Shouldn't it be 9pts one each horse?

 

[Yalwen]

F.A.B. Thanks for your system idea and credit to you for putting your selections up here before racing.

This is an area that I have explored before without success and I must say that to take money off the bookies you are going to need a far higher strike rate than 50% as the selections are all at the front end of the market and at least two of them must lose.

I am confused where you get your prices from.  Is it from a newspaper betting forecast or from the bookies, in this case Paddypower?

Anyway, thanks once again for opening up on your system rules and also the qualifiers for today.

Regards  

Yal

 

 

[Pirate53]

Surely for this to work the stakes need to be higher on lower odds? You've lost 56 pts on the 15.40. this will take some pulling back.

I also notice that many of the selected races are handicaps. Betting at the front end your strike rate will be higher if you only select races where horses are running at level weights, eg maidens, claimers and sellers as well as group and listed.

I wish you all the best with this. For further inspiration check out Tsiri's blog at: http://dutchingasabusiness.blogspot.com/ .This guy makes a good living doing similar to you on Betfair.

Edited July 12, 2018 by Pirate53

[F.A.B.]

As was pointed out in bet two the stakes would have been 9 points win on each not 3 points as was stated ( too many late nights lol).

In answer to the question about prices they are the best odds on offer after 10.00am from Paddy Power the bookmaker i use but the beauty of it is they pay the higher odds whether it be early morning prices or S.P. a good example was La Isla Bonita 11/4 taken in the morning 11/8 S.P.

[Yalwen]

Hello F.A.B.

Well, you'll find no bigger sceptic than me when it comes to horse racing systems - been burnt far too many times.

However, looking at today's results - I make it 5 winning races out of 7. That's a 71% strike rate - you suggested 50%. Betting at BOG bookies I get a return of 245 points against an outlay of 221 points. A profit of 24 points - not to be sneezed at.  I hope the figures I have produced are correct - I've had a busy day!

Once again thank you, well done and let's hope it continues. With your 50+ years experience I'm sure you've learned plenty.

Regards

Yal

[F.A.B.]

Not a bad day at the office, let's take a look at the results.......

1st race selections 1.50 Newmarket- Lost 26 points

2nd race 2.30 Dundalk W 5/1( early price 9/2) bet 4 points = +20 points less 4 points = +16 profit

3rd race 3.40 Dundalk Lost 56 points

4th race 3.50 Carlisle W 13/5 (3/1 early price taken) bet 10 points = +30 points less 21 points = +9 points profit

5th race 4.10 Newmarket W 6/1 (early price 3/1) bet 9 points = + 54 points less 18 points = + 36 points profit

6th race 4.15 Dundalk W 5/2 (9/4 early price) bet 12 points = + 30 points less 14 points = + 16 points profit

7th race 5.20 Newmarket W 3/1 (9/2 early price taken) bet 9 points = + 27 points less 24 points = + 3 points profit

Summary for the day: Losses 82 points

                                   Wins 80 points

Net Loss of 2 points on the day

5 winning bets from 7 races

Unfortunately taking a hit of - 56 points on race 3 but recoverable.

Overall current strike rate 55.5%

[Escaping Captivity]

Your system isn't revolutionary as it's a form of dutching and betting on the first three favourites equates to odds-on collectively for the vast majority of the time. This means that your strike rate has to be significantly higher than 50% over a long period to make it worthwhile. 

Out of interest, how many races have you researched and what's the ROI%?

 

[F.A.B.]

33 minutes ago, Escaping Captivity said:

Your system isn't revolutionary as it's a form of dutching and betting on the first three favourites equates to odds-on collectively for the vast majority of the time. This means that your strike rate has to be significantly higher than 50% over a long period to make it worthwhile. 

Out of interest, how many races have you researched and what's the ROI%?

 

You are correct it is a form of Dutching the reasoning behind the first three in the betting who are clear of the rest of the field by at least 2 points indicates that the race should logically be between those three. I'm sure if you follow my selections you will find the strike rate will improve.......we are only on day 3 as of today. I have not kept any kind of records to date but can only tell you it has proven to be the best system i have ever used for returns. Pardon my ignorance but i don't know the term ROI.

[F.A.B.]

Today's qualifying races are.......(early prices)

3.50 York

Jahaafel 9/4

Delph Crescent 7/2

Give It Some Teddy 4/1

stakes rounded to 2/1,3/1, 4/1= 2 x 3 x 4 = 24

Bet 12 points 8 points, 6 points

4.45 Newmarket

Elgin 5/2

Hamada 3/1

Shraaoh 5/1

stakes rounded to 2/1,3/1,5/1 = 2 x 3 x 5 = 30

Bet 15 points, 10 points, 6 points

4.50 Downpatrick

Touchedbyanangel 3/1

Lady of the Sea 11/2

Siempre Amigos6/1

stakes rounded to 3/1,5/1,6/1 = 3 x 5 x 6 = 90

Bet 30 points, 18 points, 15 points

5.40 Ascot

Apex King 3/1

Shadow Warrior 7/2

Poetic Force 4/1

Stakes rounded to 3/1,3/1,4/1 = 3 x 3 x 4 = 36

Bet 12 points, 12 points, 9 points

7.55 Chester

Twin Appeal 100/30

Rene Mathis 11/2

Logi 11/2

Stakes rounded to 3/1,5/1, 5/1 = 3 x 5 x 5 = 75

Bet 25 points, 15 points, 15 points

9.00pm Chester

Computable 3/1

Lucky Beggar 100/30

Equally Fat 7/2

Stakes rounded to 3/1,3/1,3/1 = 3 x 3 x 3 = 27

Bet 9 points, 9 points, 9 points

 6.00 pm Ffos Las

Field Exhibition 5/2

Cafe Au Lait 11/4

Trafalgar Rock 4/1

Stakes rounded to 2/1, 3/1, 4/1 = 24

Bet 12 points, 8 points,6 points

[F.A.B.]

20 minutes ago, keef75 said:

Hi FAB, ROI is return on investment.  Say, you have staked £1000 over the course of several bets and, as a result of some winners, you now have £1500 your ROI is 50%. Profit divided by total stake, multiplied by 100 to get %. 

(500 / 1000) * 100

Edited to remove ambiguity between profit and percentage multiplier.

Thanks for the explanation .....obvious wasn't it ! lol

[Escaping Captivity]

19 minutes ago, F.A.B. said:

You are correct it is a form of Dutching the reasoning behind the first three in the betting who are clear of the rest of the field by at least 2 points indicates that the race should logically be between those three. I'm sure if you follow my selections you will find the strike rate will improve.......we are only on day 3 as of today. I have not kept any kind of records to date but can only tell you it has proven to be the best system i have ever used for returns. Pardon my ignorance but i don't know the term ROI.

But do you record your profit and losses because that's absolutely vital? Having a limit to the number of horses in a race is paramount too when devising a system IMO. Personallly I would never bet on a race with over 14 runners and for this particular system involving the first three favourites I would limit it to 12. Why? Because I've found that races with 13 or 14 runners, the 4th, 5th, 6th and even the 7th favourite win more regularly than in a smaller field.

I'm still sceptical but I'll be following your system nonetheless.

[F.A.B.]

3 minutes ago, Escaping Captivity said:

But do you record your profit and losses because that's absolutely vital? Having a limit to the number of horses in a race is paramount too when devising a system IMO. Personallly I would never bet on a race with over 14 runners and for this particular system involving the first three favourites I would limit it to 12. Why? Because I've found that races with 13 or 14 runners, the 4th, 5th, 6th and even the 7th favourite win more regularly than in a smaller field.

I'm still sceptical but I'll be following your system nonetheless.

I do keep a record but i keep that private. Regarding the number of runners it is up to the individual to set whatever criteria they wish eg up to 12 runners only, non apprentice races, sprints only etc. Nothing wrong with being sceptical we all treat everything with caution. Let's see where this takes us and any suggestions or  refining of the system is welcome. We are all here to bash the bookies right ?

[Pirate53]

11 minutes ago, Escaping Captivity said:

But do you record your profit and losses because that's absolutely vital? Having a limit to the number of horses in a race is paramount too when devising a system IMO. Personallly I would never bet on a race with over 14 runners and for this particular system involving the first three favourites I would limit it to 12. Why? Because I've found that races with 13 or 14 runners, the 4th, 5th, 6th and even the 7th favourite win more regularly than in a smaller field.

 

Agree totally with this. You must keep detailed records and run system in test mode for at least 3 months before risking any hard earned cash. Also agree re number of runners.

The rules also seem a little 'slack' shall we say. Why do you, in some races, compute the stake to be 90pts but only stake 63? Is it risk averseness? (Is there such a word as averseness?)!

You need to formulate rigid rules, stick to them and test everything.

[F.A.B.]

1 hour ago, Pirate53 said:

Agree totally with this. You must keep detailed records and run system in test mode for at least 3 months before risking any hard earned cash. Also agree re number of runners.

The rules also seem a little 'slack' shall we say. Why do you, in some races, compute the stake to be 90pts but only stake 63? Is it risk averseness? (Is there such a word as averseness?)!

You need to formulate rigid rules, stick to them and test everything.

I'm not sure what you mean by 'slack' rules ? I did state at the beginning of the thread that the criteria for selections are:-

1. The first favourite must be 2/1 or above

2. There must be at least a 2 point gap between the third and fourth favourites.

All stakes are based on the multiplier and common denominator of the odds rounded up or down ( i don't work in fractions).

eg 2/1 x 4/1 x 5/1 = 40 therefore  bets would be 20 10 and 8 because when you divide 40 by each of those numbers those are the bet stakes you arrive at.

The bonus is of course if you take an early price of say 4/1 and it wins at 6/1 your profit is more than you expected (depending on which bookmaker you use).

Of course instead of doing your staking plans early you could do it 'live' but as odds fluctuate rapidly just before the off it would be difficult to judge what your bets should be.

I have found that sometimes when doing my selections in the morning by the time race time comes around the criteria i have set does not apply to that particular race because of the betting fluctuations but i guess that's a judgement call.

[Pirate53]

OK, thanks for the clarification.

You could place bets using software such as Gruss on Betfair. If the parameters change before the off you simply cash out for a small profit or loss.

[F.A.B.]

Results for Friday 13 -07-18

3.50 York

Won 5/1 (early price 7/2) bet 8 points = 40 less 18 points = + 22 points profit

4.45 Newmarket

W 11/4 ( early price 3/1 taken ) bet 10 points = 30 less 21 = + 9 points profit

4.50 Downpatrick

W 2/1 (early price 3/1 taken ) bet 30 points = 90 points less 33 = + 57 points profit

5.40 Ascot 

Lost 36 points ( beaten a neck)

6.00 Ffos Las

W 5/1 (early price 11/4) 8 points = 40 less 18 = + 22 points profit

7.55 Chester

Lost 55 points ( beaten short head)

9.00 Chester

Lost 27 points

 

Summary winning bets 4 losing bets 3

Unlucky to lose two races in a photo finish

110 points won

118 points lost 

7 points loss for the day

Current strike rate 62.5% 

[Snoopdog]

21 hours ago, F.A.B. said:

Personallly I would never bet on a race with over 14 runners and for this particular system involving the first three favourites I would limit it to 12. Why? Because I've found that races with 13 or 14 runners, the 4th, 5th, 6th and even the 7th favourite win more regularly than in a smaller field.

I totally agree:

1. More runners, then more chances of a big surprise (as you imply).

2. More runners, then higher bookie's over-round.

[F.A.B.]

Today's qualifying races are ........

All early prices with p.p.

Ascot 1.20

Beat The Bank 11/4

Lord Glitters 7/2

Century Dream 4/1

Stakes rounded to 3/1, 3/1, 4/1 = 3 x 3 x 4 = 36

Bet 12 points, 12 points, 9 points

1. 55 York

Muthmir 3/1

Take Cover 4/1

Stone of Destiny 9/2

Stakes rounded to 3/1,4/1,4/1 = 3 x 3 x 4 = 48

Bet 16 points, 12 points, 12 points

2.50 Newmarket

Assembly of Truth 11/4

Zagitova 100/30

Spanish Aria 4/1

Stakes rounded to 3/1,3/1,4/1 = 3 x 3 x 4 = 48

Bet 16 points, 12 points, 12 points

4.55 Chester

Mr Wagyu 2/1

Gabrial The Devil 4/1

Charming Guest 11/2

Stakes rounded to 2/1,4/1,5/1 = 2 x 4 x 5 = 40

Bet 20 points, 10 points, 8 points

8.00 Hamilton

Life Knowledge 100/30

Blue Havana 4/.1

Falcons Fire 9/2

Stakes rounded to 3/1, 4/1, 4/1 = 3 x 4 x 4 = 48

Bet 16 points, 12 points, 12points

 

[F.A.B.]

I think you will agree the selection process is regularly producing a good percentage of winners but maybe on reflection needs a better staking plan. Come on guys give me your thoughts and ideas.

[Valiant Thor]

Im not an advocate of backing multiple horses in the same race as its hard enough to beat the bookmaker without betting against yourself in the process,but each to their own.

You need 2 races in 3 (66%) min correct to make a profit , anything under that you will lose money, no staking plan in the world can change that.

Your using variable staking per bet making you risk bearing so your variance per bet graphed out will look like a map of the alps.

For a start make your bets more risk averse.(the longer you stay in the game the more chance you have)

Have a fixed common denominator say 30pts per race for all races ( or whatever denomination you feel comfortable with) and dutch all the horses for that day together to give an equal payout whichever wins

ie 1 race 30pts dutched between 3 horses or 2 races = 60pts dutched between 6 horses etc etc

This wont make losing races into winners but should reduce the variance .

As mentioned before , if possible try and stick to non-handicap races, if non opt for the better class Handicap races over lower ones, as handicap races by nature are there to be exploited by trainers.

If you have multiple races in a day try to keep it to the the race you think is the best bet for the day, more races and higher volume betting only makes you lose faster if your not hitting your winning %age just the same as increasing stakes after a loser would

Apart from the above keep detailed record and you'll soon see where the problems lie.

ATB

VT

 

[F.A.B.]

23 minutes ago, Valiant Thor said:

Im not an advocate of backing multiple horses in the same race as its hard enough to beat the bookmaker without betting against yourself in the process,but each to their own.

You need 2 races in 3 (66%) min correct to make a profit , anything under that you will lose money, no staking plan in the world can change that.

Your using variable staking per bet making you risk bearing so your variance per bet graphed out will look like a map of the alps.

For a start make your bets more risk averse.(the longer you stay in the game the more chance you have)

Have a fixed common denominator say 30pts per race for all races ( or whatever denomination you feel comfortable with) and dutch all the horses for that day together to give an equal payout whichever wins

ie 1 race 30pts dutched between 3 horses or 2 races = 60pts dutched between 6 horses etc etc

This wont make losing races into winners but should reduce the variance .

As mentioned before , if possible try and stick to non-handicap races, if non opt for the better class Handicap races over lower ones, as handicap races by nature are there to be exploited by trainers.

If you have multiple races in a day try to keep it to the the race you think is the best bet for the day, more races and higher volume betting only makes you lose faster if your not hitting your winning %age just the same as increasing stakes after a loser would

Apart from the above keep detailed record and you'll soon see where the problems lie.

ATB

VT

 

Thanks for the feedback and advice. Having done a little research the square root betting system looks of interest, takes a little working out though, splitting the stakes equally may be the answer. I would be interested to hear from anyone who uses this method of staking plan.

 

[Valiant Thor]

8 hours ago, F.A.B. said:

 Having done a little research the square root betting system looks of interest, takes a little working out though, splitting the stakes equally may be the answer. I would be interested to hear from anyone who uses this method of staking plan.

 

It must have been a "little research" as for the SQRT betting to work you first have to be in profit which you are not.

Quote

It takes a little working out though

No it doesn't its just the SQRT of any profit added to a fixed stake

In the old days people called it Alchemy .. trying to turn lead into gold , It didnt work then and wont work now

Might sound a bit blunt but I'm honest , hit over 66% you make a profit , under 66% you lose......... end of .

You put up any staking system you want

 Loss Recovery
 Normal Staking
 Level Staking
 Percentage
 Ratchet Staking
 VDW Staking
 Banded Staking
 Square Root
 Stepper Staking
 Labouchere
 Martingale
 Fibonnaci
 Kelly Staking
 Retirement Staking Plan
 Reverse Labouchere

You will still lose money as your results do not hit the required 66%age win rate

You state "Its all about the maths " so what part of that do you not understand

Edited July 14, 2018 by Valiant Thor

[Escaping Captivity]

13 hours ago, F.A.B. said:

I think you will agree the selection process is regularly producing a good percentage of winners but maybe on reflection needs a better staking plan. Come on guys give me your thoughts and ideas.

For someone who says they've been gambling for over 50 years, I find it bemusing that you base a system mainly on the strike rate.

As for staking plans, unless a systems ROI% is at a decent level , level stakes is the only real option in my opinion.

How many bets have you made using this system?