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salmonman

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  1. Like
    salmonman reacted to Darran in Non-League Predictions > October 16th   
    3 of my tips where there is still some value.   AFC Telford v Farsley Celtic (National League North) Farsley fully deserved their victory over Curzon last week when I opposed them and if they carry on with that form in this game then I think they will take the 3 points. Telford beat Chorley on the opening day of the season, but they have lost every game since apart from a draw against Hereford. They sacked their manager last week, but lost to Spennymoor and then Boston beat them 4-1 on Tuesday night so little has changed on the back of the sacking. Farsley just look very over priced for this game.   Weston Super Mare v Salisbury (Southern Premier South) Weston flattered to deceive again on Tuesday night when they lost 2-1 to Yate. They should be doing much better than they are and it especially seems that their home form isn't quite up to scratch. They host a Salisbury side who will have been disappointed to have drawn against Hartley Witney last week, but they continue to be in strong form and have just lost twice all season. I think they can get the better of their hosts here.   Southend v Chertsey So Phil Brown has finally gone at Southend, but this isn't exactly a game they will be wanting right now as they are on a hiding to nothing really. They have yet to lose in the league this season in 5 games and are still in the FA Trophy. Again its a 3 level gap, but Southend are there for the taking at the moment.   Farsley Celtic 1pt @ 29/10 with William Hill (take up to 7/4) Salisbury 1pt @ 15/8 with Skybet (take up to 11/8) Chertsey 1pt @ 6/1 with Betfred (take up to 4/1)
  2. Like
    salmonman reacted to Darran in Oct 5th fixtures   
    Altrincham v Grimsby You have to hand it to Altrincham as they have known beaten Notts County and Dagenham in their last 3 games as well as a comprehensive 4-1 win over Kings Lynn. Although they only had 3 shots on target on Saturday they did create plenty of chances as they have been doing in recent matches. They are 3 from 3 at home and clearly they have the capability of beating another side who are top of the table, as Grimsby overtook Dagenham on Saturday. Grimsby had a very comfortable afternoon beating Dover 6-0 and that meant they are 5/5 at home this term. Away though it has been a different story and they have only managed to beat Torquay on their travels so far and that was when the home side were struggling. They were poor at Maidenhead and then lost to Bromley. I'd still make them slight favourites to win this, but no way should the home side be as big as they are based on recent performances and confidence is going to be sky high right now.   Halifax v Notts County Two losses on the spin now for County and their defending left a lot to be desired against Woking on Saturday. They weren't strong up front either as an xG of just 0.78 suggests and that is the 3rd time in their last 4 games that the opposition have had a higher xG than them. Halifax have been pretty good at home so far this season and were a bit unfortunate not to win at Barnet on Saturday. Somehow Pete Wild has got together another side who are capable of finishing in the top half of the table which is some achievement and I think they will cause County problems here, especially given County don't seem quite at it at the moment certainly compared to earlier in the season. Halifax certainly look the value call to me.   Woking v Dagenham & Redbridge Two of our ante-post sides so probably better a Dagenham win, but no doubt in my mind that Woking are the value play here. Obviously we know what they did at Notts County on Saturday and as much as Tahvon Campbell didn't impress me when he was on loan at Gloucester last season, he has been very impressive for Woking and he is now up to 8 goals for the season. Dagenham are obviously a very good side, but losing in the way they did on Saturday was not good. They also seem to have this habit of going behind at the moment. I would still have Dagenham as favourites, but Woking aren't anywhere near as far behind them in quality as the betting suggests.   Wrexham v Chesterfield It is so annoying that with no other football on TV on Tuesday that BT Sport have chosen to put Wealdstone v Solihull on as the live game whereas as this one or the Woking v Dagenham game would have been much better choices to highlight the division. Chesterfield will be keen to put their last two results behind them because dropping 3 points in the way they did was pretty shocking and certainly not what potential champions do. This will be a tough game, but I've still yet to be convinced by Wrexham and they suffered a couple of key injuries on Saturday in their abandoned game. I'd argue that Chesterfield are likely to have the stronger starting line up and although Chesterfield have already been backed I still think there is juice in the price.   Altrincham 1pt @ 9/4 with Bet365 (take up to 15/8) Halifax 1pt @ 12/5 with Bet365 (take up to 15/8) Woking 1pt @ 13/5 with Bet365 (take up to 15/8) Chesterfield 1pt @ 13/5 with Bet365 (take up to 7/4)  
  3. Like
    salmonman reacted to Darran in Non-League Predictions > 29th May   
    So we finally get to the final day of the regular season. It has been strange just focusing on the one league since January and it has made things tricky at times, but May especially has been a good month. Hopefully we can end it with a profit on Saturday and I have 4 bets.
    Altrincham v Torquay
    Altrincham had been struggling for a while, but a dramatic 4-3 win against Yeovil and a 1-1 draw against Eastleigh on Tuesday night mean they are ending the season in strong fashion. They played really well on Tuesday against a side of course who are going for the play-offs. I think the crowd helped in that regard and I can see them getting a result here. Torquay can only finish 2nd now and I would imagine they wont want to risk injuries to key players ahead of the play-offs especially as they have suffered from injuries during the season which has probably cost them the title. With that in mind Altrincham are over priced at 4/1.
    Barnet v Sutton
    Sutton sealed the title on Sunday with a very good performance over Hartlepool and they have been so consistent since last January. The job is done and they wont really care what happens in their final non-league game for now. I don't really need to repeat my thoughts on Barnet and their improvement and they won for us again on Tuesday night. Their first goal was a cracking move as well and after getting a point at Torquay last week I think they have a real chance of picking up 3 here. 6/1 is a crazy price in the circumstances and they should be at least half that if not shorter.
    Kings Lynn v Aldershot
    I am actually backing the home side here. They did well with a crowd behind them on Tuesday night against Solihull and with Aldershot not really convincing of late especially away from home I think there is some value in backing Kings Lynn to pick up 3 points.
    Solihull v Eastleigh
    Speaking of Solihull they did at least keep their unbeaten run going and as I have mentioned a few times their home form has been really strong. Not surprisingly they are drifting because Eastleigh need to win this to give them any sort of chance of getting into the play-offs, but I just get a feeling they are running out of steam based on their performance on Tuesday at Altrincham and they could have had a much easier game than facing a Solihull side who have won 8 of their last 9 home games and the one they didn't win was a 0-0 draw against Sutton. I am more than happy to take a chance on them making it 9/10 home victories.
    Altrincham 1pt @ 4/1 with Bet365
    Barnet 1pt @ 6/1 with William Hill
    Kings Lynn 1pt @ 8/5 with William Hill
    Solihull 1pt @ 14/5 with William Hill
  4. Thanks
    salmonman reacted to Darran in Non-League Predictions > May 22nd   
    More profit on Tuesday with Eastleigh winning although Barnet were just edged out on Wednesday night. I have just the one bet for Saturday's action.
    Chesterfield v Dagenham & Redbridge
    I am all over Dagenham here and I can't believe the price. Chesterfield haven't actually played well for a while now and despite Rowe signing numerous players injuries haven't helped on that front. In the last 10 games they have won just 3 times and two of those were against Woking and Kings Lynn so games they should have won comfortably. That should also have been the case last Saturday when they went off around 1/14 to beat Wealdstone and yet they played poorly and could only draw 0-0. They had a lot of the ball, but were ineffective with it and Wealdstone actually had the better chances. Now the one slight concern I have is that performance might give the players a big wake up call and obviously fans will be there which could make a difference, but I think both teams will enjoy playing in front of a crowd given how long its been. Eastleigh's manager on Tuesday spoke about how it was good to keep the home fans quiet. Dagenham are flying at the moment and Daryl McMahon has finally got his team playing consistently after struggling on that front for most of the season. It has probably come too late for the play-offs, but they are still in with a fighting chance and win this then it goes to the final day of the season. They have won all bar one of their last 8 games and that other one was a very creditable 1-1 draw at Stockport. Granted they have played some easy sides in that run, but the wins over Eastleigh and Halifax as well as that Stockport draw prove how well they are going. I watched them against Wealdstone as well and they way they despatched of them was very impressive. Dagenham are playing so much better than their hosts at the moment and hopefully that can continue on Saturday as they are a massive price.
    Dagenham & Redbridge 4pts @ 12/5 with William Hill 
  5. Like
    salmonman reacted to Darran in Non-League Predictions > May 18th   
    Another profitable day on Saturday as Yeovil managed to cover the -1 handicap against Kings Lynn. Amazingly Chesterfield who ended up going off around 1/14 managed to only get a point against Wealdstone which let the treble down. I have 2 bets for Tuesday night.
    Aldershot v Eastleigh
    I really don't understand the prices here as I would make Eastleigh clear favourites. Eastleigh now have a great chance of making the play-offs as they have 4 games against sides with nothing to play for and win them all then they will finish at least 7th. Now obviously sides with nothing to play for can be dangerous and although they beat Barnet 3-0 on Saturday the Eastleigh manager admitted after the game that they hadn't played very well and didn't deserve to win 3-0. They had been on a good run of form prior to that though having beaten Sutton and Notts County twice. Indeed they have only lost twice in their last 8 games and they were against Dagenham and Torquay so no disgrace in that. Aldershot on the other hand have only won twice in their last 7 and they were against Wealdstone and Yeovil. They were well beaten by Hartlepool on Saturday as well. The one thing we do have to factor in is fans are back for this game and with it being home fans only maybe that will perk the home side up, but like I say Eastleigh are way over priced for me as I would have them around 5/4.
    Solihull Moors v Barnet
    After I put them up to beat Altrincham a few weeks back Barnet have found it harder to pick up points in their next 5 games, but their fixture list was very tough in that spell. They had to play Sutton, Notts County, Dagenham and Eastleigh which was never going to be easy. Like I say though they did play well on Saturday and they did beat Weymouth in that spell of games. I have mentioned that Solihull have good home form recently, but they haven't really played that well in those games against Weymouth and Woking and I think Barnet will make things very tough for them. Barnet are a completely different side since their new manager came in and with Torquay and Sutton to come I think he will view this as their best possibility to win a game this season. 13/2 is way too high for me as I don't think there is anywhere near that difference in ability. I'd have them around 11/4 myself so the away win is a value play here.
    Eastleigh 2.5pts @ 9/5 with Bet365
    Barnet 1pt @ 13/2 with William Hill 
  6. Like
    salmonman reacted to Darran in Non-League Predictions > May 15th   
    The handicap bets lost on Tuesday although the winning acca meant we came out as level on the night. Onto Saturday and I have two handicap bets and a treble.
    Solihull v Woking
    I thought Woking were given way too much credit by the BT Sport pundits on Tuesday night. Yes they worked hard especially in the first half, but 2nd half Sutton were all over them and Woking barely got a look in. The 2nd goal was a long range strike from nothing and Sutton's victory was much more comfortable than the score line suggests. It was always going to be easier for Woking's players to get up for a live game against title contenders and now they travel to Solihull for a game with nothing riding on it. As I pointed out on Tuesday Solihull have been strong at home and they came from a goal behind to win 2-1 against Weymouth. Woking looked ropey from set pieces again on Tuesday night and I fancy Solihull to make up the -1 handicap.
    Yeovil v Kings Lynn
    In their last 10 away games Kings Lynn have conceded at least 2 goals in all bar 2 of those games and in 7 of them it has been 3 or more goals. That sums them up perfectly and Yeovil really ought to add to that figure on Saturday. Granted their last home game on Bank Holiday Monday saw them lose 3-0 to Halifax, but apart from that they have been very good at home and again I think they can cover the -1 handicap.
    Treble
    I am going to add Chesterfield to Solihull and Kings Lynn. They host Wealdstone and you don't really need me to tell you that it really ought to be a home win. The fact that it nearly pays 2/1 with William Hill looks a cracking bet as it really ought to be shorter for them all just to win their games.
    Solihull -1 2.5pts @ 7/5 with Bet365
    Yeovil -1 3pts @ 7/4 with Bet365
    Chesterfield, Solihull and Yeovil 2.5pts treble @ 1.93/1 with William Hill
     
  7. Thanks
    salmonman reacted to Darran in Non-League Predictions > May 3rd   
    One bet and one winner again on Saturday to continue the good run of form. Usually the season has finished by now, but we still have another month to go with the season having started late. We have a full fixture list on Bank Holiday Monday to look forward to in the National League with Sutton v Notts County live on BT on Tuesday tea time. I have 4 bets for Monday.
    Boreham Wood v Kings Lynn
    I know Boreham Wood love to draw, but the fact they haven't had to play since last Saturday is key for me because Kings Lynn have played two games since then. They only have a small squad and they are feeling the effects of such a busy period. They did draw 0-0 on Saturday, Maidenhead have been leggy in games as well so it is no surprise that was more of a balanced affair. They have been conceding plenty of goals and although Wood haven't scored in 4 games now they do have goals in them and I suspect they will get a few chances to score here. I am going to take them on the -1 at 6/4.
    Dagenham & Redbridge v Woking
    Dagenham have really found their form of late and they are playing really well. They have won their last 4 on the bounce now and compared to earlier in the season they are now scoring goals. They have netted 10 in that run and they will surely fancy their chances of adding a few against a Woking side who are desperate for the season to finish. They have picked up just 1 point in their last 9 games and in their 8 losses they have conceded at least twice in 6 of them. I would make them 1/2 chances so even at a shade of odds on I am happy to play. I am also going to cover the -1 handicap.
    Maidenhead v Wrexham
    As I mentioned earlier Maidenhead continuing to look very tired in games and they could struggle to hold of a Wrexham side who need the points to stay in the play-offs. I think the Welsh side will have too much for their hosts here and I am happy to play at 6/4
    Stockport v Wealdstone
    I don't really need to write too much here as Stockport really should be putting at least 3 or 4 past Wealdstone here. They have been conceding goals for fun and Stockport have been scoring them for fun. Granted they only got 1 on Saturday, but going to Halifax is a very different story from hosting Wealdstone. The -2 handicap looks worthy of a play.
    Boreham Wood -1 2pts @ 6/4 with Betfred
    Dagenham & Redbridge 4pts @ 10//11 with William Hill
    Dagenham & Redbridge -1 1pt @ 13/5 with Betfred
    Wrexham 1pt @ 6/4 with William Hill
    Stockport -2 2pts @ 7/5 with Betfair
  8. Like
    salmonman reacted to Darran in Non-League Predictions > April 24th   
    1 bet 1 winner again on Tuesday night and hopefully the good run can continue with these 3 bets on Saturday.
    Altrincham v Barnet
    Barnet are unbeaten in 3 games since the new management team came in and they look an improved side. They have only conceded once in those 3 matches which is huge given the goals they were conceding before that. Granted they have only score in one of those games albeit they got 3 against Aldershot, and their lack of goals is a concern, but they look too big a price so I have to back them. Alty aren't scoring goals either and haven't scored in their last 3 which they have all lost. 4 games back they beat Maidenhead 1-0, but that was a fluke goal which went straight in from a corner and with Barnet now improving at the back Alty will find it tough to score here. I think these two teams are much closer together right now than the odds suggest and I would make Barnet around 9/4 shots.
    Boreham Wood v Stockport
    You would have made a small fortune backing Wood to draw in recent months and no doubt they won't draw now I have actually put them up as a bet. They drew again against Barnet last week and it almost doesn't seem to matter what level of opposition they are facing. Stockport got two good wins over Kings Lynn and Wrexham, but then they weren't great again against Maidenhead last Saturday in a 2-2 draw. This could easily be another game where the points are shared.
    Maidenhead v Woking
    Opposing Woking has been a nice money earner in recent weeks and I am happy to do so again. At their best I think Maidenhead can beat pretty much anyone in the division and they are finding their form again after a run of poor performances. They put 6 past a hopeless Wealdstone on Tuesday and with Woking continuing to look off the pace I think the home side can pick up another 3 points.
    Barnet 1pt @ 24/5 with William Hill
    Boreham Wood v Stockport draw 1pt @ 23/10 with Bet365
    Maidenhead 2.5pts @ 6/5 with William Hill and Betfred
  9. Like
    salmonman reacted to Darran in Non-League Predictions > April 20th   
    One bet one winner on Saturday and hopefully it will be the same tonight. I am opposing Woking again and they host Torquay tonight. I watched Torquay play Sutton last Tuesday and they were very impressive in a 1-0 victory. With players coming back from injury they look back to their early season best and are right back in the title hunt. With Sutton and Hartlepool recording big victories on Saturday, Torquay need to get their goal difference up so I can see them going for the kill tonight. Woking are struggling with injuries and they didn't put up much resistance against Wrexham on Saturday. I think Torquay will cover the handicap so am happy to back them at 12/5 to cover the -1.
    Torquay -1 2pts @ 12/5 with Betfair
  10. Thanks
    salmonman reacted to Darran in Non-League Predictions > Good Friday   
    Hopefully April can be better than March was and we start with the Good Friday fixtures where I have 3 bets.
    Notts County v Wrexham
    This is the live game on BT Sport which kicks off at 12.30 and I am keen on Wrexham who look over priced. They scored some really good goals in the 3-0 victory over Bromley on Saturday and that continues their really good form where they are unbeaten in 7. Scoring goals had been their issue, but they have 17 in their last 10 so they are doing better on that front and they are playing better than their hosts. County have only managed to win twice in their last 9 league games and they were against Wealdstone and Yeovil. A change of manager hasn't seemingly seen any improvement in performance as they lost on penalties to Hornchurch in the FA Trophy and then lost to Aldershot in the league on Tuesday. I am dubious about the new manager who has no knowledge of Non-League football and he clearly hasn't been able to improve them in such a short space of time. I think the fact they have been scoring wonder goals to win games has masked the fact they haven't been performing that well at all. Wrexham should be no bigger than 7/4 for me so 5/2 makes plenty of appeal.
    Barnet v Solihull Moors
    It is hard to know why Paul Fairclough left Barnet after the Chesterfield defeat because they still haven't announced a new manager and at least they had improved in the first two games after he took charge. I can't help but think it is cost cutting as they don't really need a manager given they can't go down this season. Solihull were much better against Aldershot last Saturday even holding on with 9 men and then they easily beat Wealdstone on Tuesday. Barnet were poor again last week and I don't think any team should be odds against to beat them at the moment so 6/5 looks a really big price.
    Bromley v Wealdstone
    I was surprised when Bromley sacked their manager last week as it seemed worth giving him a chance to get them into the play-offs. Like Notts County it was a surprising choice of new manager as well, but he has the perfect first game in charge. Wealdstone are awful away from home. In their last 10 away games they have managed a draw against Barnet and Torquay, but in every other game they have lost by at least 2 goals. They have conceded 28 times and scored just 4. Bromley really ought to cover the handicap here and hopefully they can avoid getting a player sent off early on as they did when they hosted Barnet recently.
    Wrexham 2pts @ 5/2 with William Hill
    Solihull 4pts @ 6/5 with William Hill and Betfred
    Bromley -1 2pts @ 13/8 with Betfred
  11. Thanks
    salmonman reacted to Darran in Non-League Predictions > 9th March   
    With just the one league to bet in at the moment it does mean that sometimes there will be no bets to be had as has happened the last couple of matchdays. There are a couple of bets I like though in tonight's matches.
    Barnet v Wrexham
    After watching Hartlepool batter Barnet and only score one goal against them and so fail to land the handicap bet it was then annoying to see Yeovil cover it with ease last Tuesday. They didn't play on Saturday, but they continue to look a very poor side. Wrexham had a trip to South London on Saturday in the live BT game against Sutton and both sides basically cancelled each other out in what was a tough watch because of that. Wrexham have had an issue about scoring goals for a few seasons now, but they did put 4 past Wealdstone and although in their other 3 games in their last 4 they have failed to score two of those games were against Sutton and Hartlepool. Barnet are worse than Wealdstone so I reckon they could cover the handicap here and at 11/5 it looks well a bet.
    Notts County v Halifax
    Having watched County against Kings Lynn and Chesterfield in recent weeks they really don't look anything special and the fact they couldn't even beat a weakened Kings Lynn last Tuesday night said plenty about where they are at right now. It's amazing to think they could still win the league because they don't look a team who should be good enough to at the moment. I think it is worth back Halifax here as after losing to Maidenhead and Barnet they have bounced back well to beat Torquay, get a point against Hartlepool and then beat Wealdstone on Saturday. They were much more dominant than their 2-1 victory suggests and at 3/1 I am happy to play.
    Wrexham -1 2pts @ 11/5 with Betfair
    Halifax 1pt @ 3/1 with Bet365
     
  12. Thanks
    salmonman reacted to Darran in Non-League Predictions > 27th February   
    It has been a tough month although there have only been 20 bets so far and profit has been guaranteed for another month which not all Non-League tipsters can claim (including 1 who charges £600 a season). Saturday sees the FA Trophy quarter-finals and I have one bet there as well as a couple in the league.
    Notts County v Oxford City
    I thought I was unlucky not to get County beat in the last round against Havant, but the fact they changed their side so much was proof as to where the Trophy sits on their priority list this season. Oxford's season would end here if they lose and as I have mentioned plenty of times over the season Oxford have a very good side this term. They will clearly be up for this to try and keep their season going and I think they look a fair bet here especially if County rest players again.
    Stockport v Chesterfield
    As much as it pains me to keep backing Chesterfield, I am going to keep backing Chesterfield. They keep winning and whereas when Rowe was Gloucester's manager we couldn't keep a clean sheet, Chesterfield have actually got a very strong defensive record. They also have threats up front as well and Stockport just continue to under perform. I don't think there is much between these two sides at all and that makes Chesterfield's price good value. If we didn't have so much doubt about what teams are going to actually complete the season and how that would effect the league then I might have been tempted to back them for the title.
    Hartlepool v Barnet
    This game is on BT Sport on Saturday teatime and it should be an easy win for the home side. I thought Barnet were showing signs of improvement based on their win over Halifax last week so much so I backed them against Woking last Saturday. They lost to them and then were even worse against Kings Lynn on Tuesday night when losing 5-1. Liam Daly who left Gloucester to go to Barnet Tweeted to a fan after the game and the suggestion is that Flowers is not getting much backing and that he can't see anything improving whilst the current team is there. They now travel to a Hartlepool side who have won 7 on the bounce at home and in 5 of those games they would have covered the -1 handicap. With there seemingly not being any relegation then I can't see Barnet putting on much of a performance and Hartlepool should have plenty in hand as they try and stake a claim for the title. Odds against about them covering the -1 is a cracking bet for me.
    Oxford City 1pt @ 4/1 with Bet365
    Chesterfield 1pt @ 23/10 with William Hill
    Hartlepool -1 2.5pts @ 6/5 with Betfred
  13. Thanks
    salmonman reacted to Darran in Non-League Predictions > January 30th   
    At the very least we look set to get two more set of National League fixtures with a vote due next week on what to do regarding the rest of the season. Amazingly I will be in profit for January whatever happens on Saturday which given my strike-rate has been pretty poor is a good thing. Obviously Chorley help in that regards, but even without them I would be just about in profit going into Saturday's games. I have 3 singles plus a double for the weekend's action.
    Bromley v Aldershot
    I wasn't expecting Bromley v Woking to end 2-2 on Saturday given the lack of goals Woking were scoring and that Bromley have been so poor at home, but I think it says it all about the home side that they blew a 2 goal lead against a side who had been finding scoring goals very hard. Aldershot didn't have much go their way when losing to Weymouth on Tuesday night and I think they can bounce straight back from that defeat. I watched them against Solihull recently and I thought they played some good football and look more than good enough to beat a team who just struggle so badly at home. 12/5 looks a massive price for an away win. This game is the live BT Sport game at 5.20.
    Halifax v Maidenhead
    I was impressed with Maidenhead's victory over Yeovil on Wednesday night given Yeovil had been hitting form before their break. Halifax couldn't get over the line for us on Tuesday night when drawing 0-0 at Wrexham and they will be tough opponents, but I do think the away side are over priced here at 14/5 as I would have the teams closer together in the market. For me they should be no bigger than 2/1.
    Kings Lynn v Wrexham
    I am still not convinced by Wrexham at all as their performances have not been strong. They still look to be lacking up front which has been their issues for a few seasons now and as much as I would have them as favourites for this I do think there is value in backing the home side. They did blow a 2 goal lead to lose at Dagenham last week, but their last 3 performances in the league were good and on their day they can beat an under performing Wrexham side. 9/4 looks too big for me about a home win.
    Double
    I have to oppose both Dover and Barnet on Saturday. I know I put Dover up to beat Barnet on Tuesday, but I was shocked they put 3 past them which just shows how bad Barnet are. It would be a huge upset if they go from that to getting anything from top of the table Torquay, who will be very happy with their points against title rivals Notts County and Sutton in their last 2 games. As I mention Yeovil did lose on Wednesday night, but with that game under their belts they ought to beat a poor Dover side. Dover have lost all 5 away games in the league and have only scored 2 goals in the process which doesn't surprise me after watching their game against Solihull last week. The double pays 1.59/1 with William Hill.
    Aldershot 2pts @ 12/5 with Bet365
    Maidenhead 1pt @ 14/5 with Bet365
    Kings Lynn 1pt @ 9/4 with Bet365
    Torquay/Yeovil 2pts @ 1.59/1 with William Hill
  14. Thanks
    salmonman reacted to Darran in Non-League Predictions > 23rd January   
    This could well be the last preview of the season given the situation in the National League at the moment. With the North and South off for at least 2 weeks that leaves just the National League to bet in and I have 3 bets.
    Bromley v Halifax
    I know Bromley haven't been great at home this season, but Halifax were poor against Southport on Tuesday night and they have just taken Tahvon Campbell on loan from Cheltenham. He was on loan at Gloucester and I was glad to see the back of him as he wasn't great. I see the Halifax manager thinks he is in form, but 3 of his 5 goals came against Maldon and one of the others was a goalkeeper error. Bromley have the better side and hopefully they can put in a good home performance as they should be a bit shorter.
    Dover v Solihull Moors
    I know Dover aren't great, but apart from a couple of drubbings by Woking and Aldershot they haven't done that badly at home. They got a good draw in their last home league game as well against Boreham Wood. As I mentioned in midweek Solihull aren't great on their travels and at 9/2 I think Dover are worth an investment as I would probably make them around 5/2.
    Woking v Maidenhead
    In the last 10 games form table Maidenhead are joint top with Torquay averaging 2 points a game. Granted they have only won 2 of their last 6, but they only lost 2 of them and one of those was to Torquay. They have done well on their travels as well and although Woking are quite hard to beat at home they look too big a price. Woking have only won 1 league game in their last 6 as well so the away win is certainly value.
    Bromley 1pt @ 7/5 with Bet365
    Dover 1pt @ 9/2 with BetVictor
    Maidenhead 1pt @ 12/5 with William Hill
     
  15. Thanks
    salmonman reacted to Darran in Non-League Predictions > 18th-20th January   
    Hampton stopped it from being a blank on Saturday as they scored an injury time winner on another frustrating day. It has been a pretty tough last month or so and I can't help feel that the stop start nature of the season especially since the new variant of Covid has spread across the country has meant it has been harder to get a feel of the teams. Also the amazing run I had from September until mid-December was always going to hit the buffers eventually. You can also tell from my stakes that the confidence isn't as strong as it would often be at this time of the season. Every bet bar 3 in the last month has been 1 or 2 points and those 3 were all 2.5pts. It does mean that the damage done has been minimal though and taking January by itself I am still just in profit after last weekend. Hopefully we can add to those profits on Tuesday night as I have 3 bets.
    Aldershot v Solihull Moors
    I think Aldershot should be favourites for this game. Solihull's manager was quoted in Sunday's Non-League Paper basically saying the FA Trophy was getting in the way of league fixtures and that he could do without it. They have only played 13 league fixtures thanks to Covid and their FA Cup run and they are a side who will be looking to get into the play-offs. I can see them resting players for this and they clearly won't care if they get knocked out. They have done pretty poorly away from home this season as well. Aldershot look like they will finish in a solid mid-table position and the FA Trophy gives them a good chance to give fans something to cheer about after some tough seasons since they were last in the play-offs. 9/5 is too big and I would have them around 5/4.
    Billericay v Chelmsford
    I am going to back the home team here in the Essex derby. Billericay have really struggled, but sacking someone who couldn't manage to save his life and getting a good manager in is a start. They did lose 3-0 to Dartford in their first game under him, but that was a tough start and they were good on Saturday in a 2-0 win over Dulwich. I have a feeling we might see some improvement from them and I make them slight value to beat a Chelmsford side who had lost 5 on the bounce prior to beating Braintree and St Albans. I think they probably played St Albans at the right time so I wouldn't read too much into that.
    Hemel Hempstead v Oxford City
    Hemel put down a 3G pitch in the summer, but I bet they are wishing they had stuck with grass given they have managed to pick up just one point in 6 home league matches. I have written plenty about Oxford City this season and they are a good side. They surprisingly went 2 down against Haringey on Saturday, but in the end ran out 4-2 winners and they will be used to playing on a 3G pitch given they have one themselves. My guess is they will go off odds on so Even money is value for me.
    Aldershot 2pts @ 9/5 with BetVictor
    Billericay 1pt @ 13/8 with Bet365
    Oxford City 2pts @ Evs with Bet365
  16. Thanks
    salmonman reacted to Darran in Non-League Predictions > January 16th   
    At this stage I have just 3 bets for Saturday although given no one has priced up the 2 National League games and only Bet365 have priced up the FA Trophy matches, and not even all of them, so there could be more to follow.
    Chorley v Farsley Celtic
    Given I can't see the Chorley groundsman sleeping on the pitch in a tent to make sure the pitch is playable this week, there is every chance that this game could be off given the forecast. If it is on though I like the away side. Chorley will clearly have one eye on the FA Cup and I think it showed on Tuesday night when losing to Leamington. Farsley are having a similar season to last time in that they are performing with great credit without looking quite good enough for the play-offs. They played their first game since December 28th on Tuesday night and beat Darlington 1-0 and they look over priced for this.
    Hampton & Richmond v Ebbsfleet
    As I wrote last week I have been impressed by Hampton of late despite the fact their home form on paper looks poor. I think it is only a matter of time before they pick up 3 points at home and that could come against Ebbsfleet. I think Hampton are the better of the two teams and although I wouldn't want to go that much shorter I would make them clear favourites so the 6/4 is worth taking.
    Slough v Braintree
    Now I do worry a bit about Braintree's away form and they did lose on December 28th when I put them up to beat Billericay, but they have done really well in their last two home games, beating Dartford and performing well against a good Oxford City side when losing 2-1 on Tuesday. They continue to improve the squad as well and this does look a good opportunity to get 3 points on their travels. Slough have not played since losing to Dartford on penalties in the FA Trophy a month ago. That is a huge amount of time to have had off and they were hardly in great form prior to the break having only won 2 games all season. Maybe they will come back refreshed and ready to kick start their season, but I am more than happy to back Braintree at a huge 18/5. I would have them around the 7/4-2/1 mark myself.
    Farsley 1pt @ 9/4 with William Hill
    Hampton & Richmond 1pt @ 6/4 Bet365
    Braintree 2pts @ 18/5 with Betfair/BetVictor
  17. Thanks
    salmonman reacted to Darran in Non-League Predictions > January 9th   
    Bromley v Chesterfield
    If you had said to me a few months ago that I will have a bit of a hatred for Chesterfield I would have called you crazy, but they then preceded to take our manager who then preceded to take 3 of our players with him despite agreeing to only take the one. I genuinely hope they lose every game as Rowe has done his upmost to disrupt Gloucester's season. All that said I am backing Chesterfield again here and when it comes to punting I always say you can't let your heart rule your head. I watched the game against Solihull and although Solihull dominated possession, Chesterfield had the better chances and really ought to have won. They conceded two poor goals as well (something Gloucester used to do under Rowe) which obviously didn't help matters. Bromley are a good side, but they have had a Covid break as well as being poor at home. They were shocking against Yeovil last month and have only won twice all season at home. Chesterfield should be sharper and Asante looked unplayable at times on Tuesday night. 2/1 is too big about an away win.
    AFC Telford v AFC Fylde
    I opposed Fylde last week, but they were really impressive against an in form Chorley. Granted Chorley may have had an eye on the Derby match, but even so it was a big statement after some ropey results. Telford have only picked up 1 point in their last 4 and were well beaten by Chester last weekend.
    Farsley Celtic v Guiseley
    I am keen on the home side here. Granted they lost 4-0 to Boston in their last game, but that was their first defeat in 7. These two drew 2-2 on Boxing Day in the reverse fixture, but Farsley should have won and at home I think they can gain 3 points. Guiseley have only won 2 of their last ten and have been struggling on the whole this season.
    Gloucester City v Kidderminster
    Obviously I hope we win, but Kidderminster are over priced at 2/1. From the start of the season it looks like we will have lost 5 of our 10 outfield players. At least 2 others are injured and even if Liam Daly doesn't join Barnet he is suspended for this game anyway. McClure missed the Leamington game due to injury as well although he could be back for this. We were poor against Leamington and are squad is nowhere near the level it was at the start of the season. Kidderminster were struggling a little and have only won 1 in 5, but they were improved against York on Tuesday night in a 2-2 draw. I honestly would make Kidderminster slight favourites for this especially if McClure is missing again.
    Concord Rangers v Hampton & Richmond
    Hampton stream their games for free so having opposed them in their last two games I have had them on a 2nd screen whilst watching the Gloucester games and I have been impressed by them. As I pointed out their home form has not been good, but they can consider themselves unlucky to only have picked up 1 point from the Dulwich and Dorking games. Away from home they have won 6 of their 7 games and their only defeat was on the opening day of season at St Albans who are 2 points off top spot having played 3 games less than the two teams above them. Concord are basically a mid table side and Hampton look a much better side.
    Hungerford v Maidstone
    Hungerford might drift again as the Asian punters seemingly love to take them on, but they are a good side this season. They lost to Havant last weekend 4-2, but they played their part in a good game and played well. Maidstone's last league game was on December 1st and their last game was in the FA Trophy the Saturday before Christmas. There has surely got to be some rustiness in the side after their Covid enforced break and Hungerford are good enough to take full advantage.
    Chesterfield 1pt @ 21/10 with William Hill
    AFC Fylde 1pt @ 11/8 with William Hill and Betfred
    Farsley Celtic 2pts @ 5/4 with Betfair and Betfred
    Kidderminster 1pt @ 2/1 with Bet365
    Hampton & Richmond 2.5pts @ 11/10 with Bet365
    Hungerford 1pt @ 13/8 with Bet365
  18. Thanks
    salmonman reacted to Darran in Non-League Predictions > December 23rd - January 2nd   
    Not been a great Festive period, but hopefully we can start the new year off to a winning start with these 6.
    Weymouth v Eastleigh
    Eastleigh have stopped scoring goals and although they had some good chances on Boxing Day in the reverse fixture they couldn't break the deadlock. Their game against Woking on the box wasn't overly exciting and again ended 0-0. Weymouth came out the wrong side of a 7 goal thriller on Monday against Torquay, but it was certainly a big step in the right direction following from the Eastleigh draw and a win in the FA Trophy against Maidenhead. 5/2 is too big a price for me on a home win.
    Woking v Aldershot
    I am going to go with Aldershot again. I did wonder if after winning the big derby game on Boxing Day might have an effect against Yeovil and it clearly did. Back to playing Woking again and I am expecting a better performance and the 5/2 should be around 7/4 for me.
    Yeovil v Torquay
    Yeovil were shocking in the reverse fixture on Boxing Day especially in defence and obviously they have won since as mentioned above. Torquay though will fancy their chances and even though they had to work hard to beat Weymouth they are a better team than Yeovil. I think they should be odds on so am happy to take odds against.
    Hampton & Richmond v Dorking
    I must admit I thought I got a bit lucky with Dulwich on Monday as Hampton going down to 10 really helped them. Hampton gave it their all in the 2nd half as well and missed a penalty. They deserved a point, but it did continue their poor home form and Dorking did everything but score against them on Boxing Day. I'm surprised Dorking aren't favourites as I think they will get revenge for the Boxing Day defeat.
    AFC Fylde v Chorley
    The home side are not in good form going into this. They have only one once in 6 league games and lost 3-1 in the reverse fixture on Boxing Day which Chorley deservedly won. Chorley obviously have a big FA Cup tie to look forward to and when I put them up to beat Peterborough I mentioned they were in a false position which they have been proving in the league. They haven't lost in 9 league games and have won 4 of their last 5. They look value to win this.
    Kidderminster v Hereford
    Granted Hereford were helped by a sending off on Boxing Day, but they still came from a goal down and Herford have only lost once in their last 6 league games now. They also beat Fylde in their previous league game. Kiddie are top of the last 10 form table, but they have lost 2 of their last 3 in the league and Hereford look over priced at 3/1.
    Weymouth 1pt @ 5/2 with Bet365
    Aldershot 1pt @ 5/2 with Bet365
    Torquay 2pts @ 23/20 with BetVictor
    Dorking 2pts @ 17/10 with Betfred
    Chorley 1pt @ 2/1 with William Hill
    Hereford 1pt @ 3/1 with Bet365
  19. Thanks
    salmonman reacted to Darran in Non-League Predictions > 12th December   
    2 winners in midweek which meant we saw a tiny profit. The Marine tip from Tuesday is now on Saturday so we already have one bet and I will be adding 4 more.
    Chesterfield v Barnet
    For obvious reasons I am not a big fan of Chesterfield at the moment given they have taken Gloucester's manager and two players (I am more gutted about the players especially Asante than Rowe), but they look to have a great chance to pick up 3 more points here. Amazingly Rowe has managed to keep two clean sheets already given he only got one in over a year at Gloucester and given how poor Barnet have been up front you would give them a fair chance of keeping another one here. Tuesday's goal against Sutton came from Carline's long throws which will cause havoc for defenders and is probably the main reason Rowe wanted him to leave Gloucester. There will be much tougher challenges to come for Chesterfield, but this should be 3 more points to Rowe's team.
    Dagenham & Redbridge v Altrincham
    I'm still not convinced by Dagenham and they have only won 3 games in the league with the last of them coming against Weymouth on Tuesday night. Given how badly Weymouth defended on Saturday against Halifax it wasn't a great surprise to see Dagenham score 3, but in general they have struggled for goals so far this season. Altrincham are in a really good run of form at the moment winning 4 of their last 5 including a good win against Wrexham 10 days in their last game. I think they have good chance to win this and certainly look a big price.
    Ebbsfleet v Havant & Waterlooville
    Havant going down to 10 men early on in Wednesday's game probably did for them against Slough, but they are a big price to beat Ebbsfleet. Both sides have only lost 2 games in the league this season, but I do think Ebbsfleet have had a pretty kind fixture list on the whole and their last game was on November 21st due to Covid which they lost to Tonbridge. You would imagine both teams will be hoping to be in the play-off picture, but I think Havant have the stronger side and they could easily take advantage of any rustiness in the Ebbsfleet camp. They have only played two away league games so far this season, but last season their away form was superb and it is something to bare in mind here. I can't really work out why the bookies have got them so far apart in the betting.
    Alfreton v Chorley
    I am going with Chorley again as they continue their rise up the table. Alfreton have only won once in their last 9 although a draw against Southport last time was a bit of an improvement. They have been leaking goals for fun though and Chorley ought to be good enough to win this one.
    Marine v Hyde (Same preview as Tuesday night)
    Having tipped up two of the 4 FA Cup 3rd round Non-League sides I am going to add Marine to the list. As their FA Cup run has showed they are a very strong side for a Step 4 team this season and could easily hold their own in Hyde's league. These two sides wont be playing league football until January at the earliest, but the FA is carrying on with the FA Trophy which is why this is being played. Marine were allowed to train during lockdown because they were still in the FA Cup and they then obviously have had the Havant game as well. That should be to their advantage and Hyde have only won 1 league game out of 6 so far this season. Quite why Marine are 13/5 for this I don't know and they can have more cup success.
    Chesterfield 2.5pts @ 21/20 with Bet365
    Altrincham 1pt @ 21/10 with Bet365
    Havant & Waterlooville 1pt @ 23/10 with BetVictor
    Chorley 2.5pts @ 11/10 with Betway
    Marine 2pts @ 21/10 with Bet365 if you haven't backed them already after Tuesday
  20. Thanks
    salmonman reacted to Darran in Non-League Predictions > 8th/9th December   
    2/3 on Saturday with Dulwich and Boreham Wood both winning to keep the profits turning over. Tuesday I have 5 bets and 1 on Wednesday.
    Barnet v Stockport
    Barnet were better on Saturday against Wealdstone although Wealdstone still had the better chances to win the game and I just don't see how they can keep Stockport quiet on Tuesday night. Stockport had a very good 2-0 victory at Bromley on Saturday in their 1st league game back after their Covid break. John Rooney is on fire this season and he will fancy his chances against Barnet's shaky defence. Regular followers will know I don't often tip up odds on shots, but even at 19/20 and 10/11 they look a good value bet.
    Bromley v Yeovil
    Speaking of Bromley I think they look a good price to beat Yeovil. Bromley had their chances against Stockport and just couldn't finish them. Against a lesser side in Yeovil you would think they would get more joy. I put up Easteligh to beat Yeovil a week ago and they did so with ease as they continue to struggle in the league. Bromley were in good form prior to the Stockport loss and there was nothing in the performance to suggest there will be a dip in form due. They should be around the Even money mark for me.
    Hartlepool v Kings Lynn
    I am taking a bit of a flyer here as the price of 9/2 suggests, but I really do think Kings Lynn have a chance here. I mentioned their poor form when opposing them on Saturday and although Kings Lynn have a leaky defence we know Hartlepool are hardly prolific scorers. Even when they do lose they nearly always manage to score at least 1 goal and with Hartlepool only having scored 5 in 8 (3 of them came against Yeovil) I will take a chance that Kings Lynn can outscore their hosts. I would have them around 2/1 myself.
    Chorley v Guiseley
    They are clearly aren't going to be 18/1 to win this, but hopefully they can still win for us at 11/10 on Tuesday night. Chorley spoiled the welcome home party for Boston on Saturday when winning 2-0 and there wasn't a great deal wrong with drawing with Curzon last Tuesday as they are useful this season. Guiseley did have a good win against Spennymoor two games ago, but apart from that they have struggled for points. Chorley are in a false position in the league for me and they look a solid bet.
    Marine v Hyde
    Having tipped up two of the 4 FA Cup 3rd round Non-League sides I am going to add Marine to the list. As their FA Cup run has showed they are a very strong side for a Step 4 team this season and could easily hold their own in Hyde's league. These two sides wont be playing league football until January at the earliest, but the FA is carrying on with the FA Trophy which is why this is being played. Marine were allowed to train during lockdown because they were still in the FA Cup and they then obviously have had the Havant game as well. That should be to their advantage and Hyde have only won 1 league game out of 6 so far this season. Quite why Marine are 13/5 for this I don't know and they can have more cup success.
    Havant & Waterlooville v Slough (Wednesday)
    Havant will be kicking themselves for under performing against Marine in that FA Cup tie and they then followed that up with a poor performance in the league when losing 3-2 to Hemel a week ago. They finally bounced back to their league form prior to the FA Cup loss when beating Chelmsford 3-1 on Saturday and they will fancy their chances of beating an under performing Slough. Slough did manage to stop the rot by coming from 2 down to draw against Chippenham on Saturday, but there were 4 losses on the bounce prior to that draw and they have only managed to beat Bath and Hemel (on the opening day) this season. Havant should have too much for them.
    Stockport 4pts @ 19/20 with William Hill and Betway
    Bromley 2pts @ 7/5 with William Hill and Betway
    Kings Lynn 1pt @ 9/2 with Bet365
    Chorley 2.5pts @ 11/10 with William Hill
    Marine 2pts @ 13/5 with Bet365
    Havant & Waterlooville 2.5pts @ 23/20 with William Hill
  21. Thanks
    salmonman reacted to Darran in Non-League Predictions > December 5th   
    A cracking Tuesday with 4 winners out of 5 helped by a late winner from Torquay. Been waiting for the National League fixtures to be priced up which for some reason took until Thursday afternoon. I have just the 3 bets for Saturday, but they are all outsiders (at the time of writing).
    Barnet v Wealdstone
    Barnet performed with credit against MK Dons in the FA Cup last week, but their awful league form showed up again on Wednesday night when they were thumped 5-2 by Halifax. Prior to that game Halifax had only scored 6 goals in the league! Barnet's defence has been an issue all season and they have conceded 24 in their 10 league games. We know that Wealdstone can score goals against the right opposition and Barnet are clearly the right opposition. They performed with credit against leaders Torquay on Tuesday night, but eventually Torquay got that late winner for us. Barnet's 2 league wins have come against Weymouth and Dagenham who are either side of them in the table. The away side may have only picked up 1 point in their last 4 games, but given they have played 4 of the current top 6 in the table I think 1 point was probably as much as they could have hoped for. There is no way they should be 9/4 to win this and I would have them no bigger than 6/4 myself.
    Hartlepool v Boreham Wood
    Boreham Wood are definitely better than their league position suggests and they had a nice confidence boosting win against Canvey Island in the FA Cup on Monday night. In my view they have a better side than Hartlepool. the home side have only won one of their last 7 games and that was against bottom side Yeovil. They also were held to a 0-0 draw at Barnet in their next game. Granted on Tuesday night they ended up with 10 men against Solihull, but they were playing a side who had played 120 minutes on Saturday in their first game for a while. They look lacklustre up front at the moment and apart from the 3-1 at Yeovil they have only scored 1 goal in their last 7. There is every chance 1 will be enough for the away side.
    Hungerford v Dulwich Hamlet
    I mentioned that Dulwich were improving when I put them up to beat Bath a couple of weeks ago and after going a goal down they ran out easy 4-1 winners. They haven't played since so come into this game fresher than their hosts. To be fair to Hungerford they have done amazingly well to be as high in the table as they are and a draw against St Albans and only going down 2-1 to Dartford after being in front were good efforts as well. Tuesday night it came crashing down a bit though as Oxford City beat them 4-1. Given Oxford had played 120 minutes just two days prior you would have thought Hungerford would have done better. I'd still have them as favourites, but I certainly think their is plenty of juice in Dulwich's price.
    Wealdstone 2pts @ 9/4 with Bet365
    Boreham Wood 2pts @ 19/10 with Bet365
    Dulwich Hamlet 1pt @ 23/10 with Betfair
  22. Like
    salmonman got a reaction from Darran in Non-League Predictions > December 1st/2nd   
    I got on torquay at 9/10 2 hours after he posted so definately not lying. Great work again Darran, unlucky again not to get the full house for mega returns, thanks a lot.
  23. Thanks
    salmonman reacted to Darran in Non-League Predictions > December 1st/2nd   
    May only have had the 1 winner over the weekend, but when that winner is 18/1 it still meant it was a profitable weekend. Chorley were superb and fully deserved the victory and did it the hard way coming from a goal down as well. It was frustrating not to get one of the others over the line and apart from Darlington they were all close to landing the victory. Back to league action this week and I have 4 bets in the National League and 1 in the National League North.
    Kings Lynn v Bromley
    Bromley went through last month unbeaten and have only lost 2 games in the league all season. They looked in good shape on Saturday when drawing with a bang in form Wrexham side. I think they will be too strong for a Kings Lynn side who have struggled when they have played the better sides. They did beat Woking which was a fair effort, but otherwise they have beaten Maidenhead when they were poor at the start of the season, Barnet and then Dover last week. They struggled against Portsmouth on Saturday in the FA Cup which wasn't a great surprise. The draw does concern me slightly as Bromley have drawn 3 of their last 5, but they are the stronger team and I think there is value in the price.
    Solihull Moors v Hartlepool
    Solihull were really good against Morecombe on Saturday and they really should have put the game to bed in the first half. Their manager reckons that their enforced Covid break stopped them from winning and that could well be the case given they had extra time. That is the one concern for me here especially as Hartlepool didn't play on Saturday, but I do think there is value in the price as Solihull are looking good this season. Hartlepool were poor last week against Barnet as well.
    Wealdstone v Torquay
    As mentioned below Wealdstone have lost their keeper after he was recalled by Luton. It is worth checking out his double save against Notts County last week as well. 10 days ago I backed Sutton to beat Wealdstone and after they went 2 up early on it should have been game over. Indeed they could have had 4 or 5 by half time. Quite how it ended up 3-3 after that I don't know, but I said at the time I felt Wealdstone are in a false position and they were really put to the sword by Notts County last week. It is no fluke that Torquay are top as they are looking really good so far this season and they could easily stay there come April. Wealdstone will no doubt be attacking again and Torquay should be able to take full advantage of the chances they will get due to this. They should never have been odds against.
    Yeovil v Eastleigh
    Eastleigh have only lost once this season in the league and it is hard to see why they are such a big price to beat a team who have yet to win. Granted Eastleigh's defeat was against the team just above Yeovil in the table, Dover, but apart from that they have done well. Yeovil are really finding things tough and they had to play 120 minutes against Stockport on Sunday. That will be tough although it is worth pointing out that Eastleigh refused to move the game to Wednesday night so they could gain the advantage of the fact Yeovil played on Tuesday. Probably not ideal that happened as it might spur the home side on, but even so Eastleigh have a better chance than the odds suggest.
    Gloucester v Boston
    I should have opposed Gloucester on Saturday and they deservedly lost 2-1 to Farsely. As much as I wasn't Rowe's biggest fan, they did look rudderless at the weekend and lacked ideas. Again injuries, suspensions and losing Asante didn't help matters. It is still unclear if any of the injured will return although I have been told ex Boston player Whittle is likely to play. Like Solihull, Boston suffered for not having played for a while due to Covid on Saturday. They took the lead at Fylde, but then lost out 2-1. That was a tough first game back, but if City are weakened and play like they did on Saturday then there will be only one winner as Boston are a really good side.
    Bromley 1pt @ 13/10 with William Hill
    Solihull 1pt @ 13/10 with William Hill
    Torquay 3pts @ 11/10 with William Hill
    Eastleigh 1pt @ 9/4 with William Hill
    Boston 1pt @ 15/8 with Betway if you can get it or 8/5 with Betfair & Betfred
  24. Thanks
    salmonman reacted to Darran in FA Cup Predictions > Nov 26th - 30th   
    Fair to say the 1st Round didn't go anywhere near as well as the 4th Qualifying Round and I was caught out a little by how many upsets there were. Hard to put an exact reason behind that, but I do think no crowds is a factor. The Non-League sides are always going to be up for it, but it was clear that the same couldn't be said of the Football League sides in the 1st Round. I have picked out 6 of the Non-League sides that I think can cause an upset over the weekend as well as putting up a 4 fold. If they all win then I might retire! Tips for now and the previews will follow. Don't forget Bet365 have their acca bonus and early payout if a team goes 2 in front if you want that safety net so I have put top price and Bet365 price if shorter.
    Morecambe v Solihull Moors
    A slight concern that Solihull have had a Covid enforced break and haven't played since November 11th, but this does look a game they can win to me. They were good in beating Scunthorpe in the previous round and although Morecombe are doing better than they are in League 2 there recent form isn't great. In the league they have only won one of their last 9 games and Solihull will be confident they can cause an upset. 
    Peterborough v Chorley
    I am taking a bit of a flyer here, but I thought Chorley did superbly well in coming from 2 down to beat Wigan in the last round. I know Wigan had 10 men, but even so it was a hell of an effort. Peterborough lost a couple of games before beating Plymouth last time and that gives a bit of hope. Also I can't imagine this will be high up on the list of targets for them. The lack of home fans I think favoured the Non-League sides in round 1 and that is why we saw so many go through and Chorley do have it in them to cause an upset. I think they are in a bit of a false position in the National League North and I just can't make them as big as 18/1 so its worth a having a crack at that price.
    Mansfield v Dagenham & Redbridge
    Mansfield have only won once in the league all season and given Dagenham beat Grimsby in the previous round I think they could cause their League 2 hosts some issues here. They haven't played in nearly a couple of weeks and that will have helped them focus on this. They seem to be improving from earlier in the season and on their day the have the players to beat Mansfield.
    Bristol Rovers v Darlington
    Darlington caused an upset in Round 1 when beating League 1 Swindon and I think they can beat another League 1 side in Rovers. They have only picked up 2 points in their last 6 league games. 2 starts back they lost to Swindon and last time they only got a point at Wigan. Rovers' record against Non-League sides in the FA Cup hasn't exactly been the best in recent years either. Darlington had a couple of good wins in the league before losing to Bradford (Park Avenue) on Tuesday night, but I don't mind that because this is a much bigger game for them. They look over priced to me.
    Shrewsbury v Oxford City
    I would have preferred it if Shrewsbury hadn't announced their new manager on Friday as players will be looking to impress now, but with no win in 8 in the league they will still find this game tricky. City were superb in beating Northampton in the 1st Round and although their league form has taken a bit of a hit since, they have still been playing very well at times including when losing 3-2 to top of the table Dorking on Tuesday night. If they play as well as they did against Northampton I think they have got a real chance of reaching Round 3.
    Barnet v MK Dons
    Barnet are really struggling in the league this season and their performance against Burton in the 1st Round sticks out like a sore thumb. It was superb and they fully deserved to win. Sometimes you get teams who do well in the cup despite the fact they aren't anything special in the league and I just wonder if Barnet will be like that this season. MK Dons have only won 3 league games out of 14 this season and again it looks a match where we could see an upset.
    Acca
    Tranmere v Brackley get the action underway on BBC2 tonight and with Tranmere looking good at the moment I think they will be too strong for their National League North opponents. They have a new manager who has just taken over and he wont want a defeat in this. Kings Lynn scored with what was pretty much their only shot against Port Vale in Round 1 and I think Portsmouth will do a professional job on them. For the 3rd Round running I am trying to get Marine beat, but not being able to play since knocking out Colchester is hardly ideal. Havant are a very strong side as well. Boreham Wood have surprised me by their lack of goals in the league this season, but I can't see Canvey Island keeping them out. Canvey were very fortunate to knock out Banbury in the previous round and I would be disappointed if Wood blew this great opportunity to get to the 3rd Round
    Solihull 1pt @ 3/1 with Bet365
    Chorley 1pt @ 18/1 with Betfair (14s with Bet365)
    Dagenham & Redbridge 1pt @ 9/2 with Bet365
    Darlington 1pt @ 17/2 with Betfair (15/2 with Bet365)
    Oxford City 1pt @ 9/1 with Betfair (8/1 with Bet365)
    Barnet 1pt @ 4/1 with Bet365
    Tranmere/Portsmouth/Havant & Waterlooville/Boreham Wood 2pts @ 3.1/1 with Bet365
  25. Thanks
    salmonman reacted to Darran in Non-League Predictions > November 14th   
    A tiny profit on Tuesday and Wednesday night with a couple of easy wins for Gloucester and Solihull. Back to a full league fixture list on Saturday (unless Covid gets in the way) and I have 5 bets across the 3 divisions.
    Altrincham v Aldershot
    Altrincham were comfortably beaten by Solihull on Wednesday night and in more bad news for them they suffered more injuries. They already had plenty missing and given they have struggled for goals all season I fancy that Aldershot will probably only need to score 1 to win this. Score 1 is what they did against Notts County last Saturday as they took full advantage of an error to score their only shot on target of the whole game. I wouldn't read too much into that as the tactics were too make things hard for County and try and force them into an error which is what happened. Aldershot have scored in all 6 league games so far and apart from a 4-1 loss to league leaders Torquay they have been performing well. The 29/20 about an away win makes plenty of appeal.
    Chesterfield v Maidenhead
    After losing their 1st 3 games and conceding 10 goals in the process it looked like it would be a tough season for Maidenhead, but they went and won their next 4 league games. That has put them to 6th in the table and although I think they have had a bit of fortune along the way, the 3-1 over Solihull in their last league game was probably their best performance of the season. Chesterfield on the other hand have have won 2 and lost 4 of their 6 league games and although they have had some tough fixtures they haven't been playing that well. In their last league game they beat current bottom side Yeovil 1-0 and even then I didn't see anything that would make me think they should be odds on to beat a tough Maidenhead side. The 23/10 about an away looks decent value to me.
    Blyth Spartans v Hereford
    Thanks to Covid issues Hereford have only played 3 league games so far this season and they have had one of each result. October 27th was their last league game when they lost 2-0 to Bradford Park Avenue and they don't seem in a good place at the moment. Granted Blyth conceded 16 goals in their 1st 5 games, but they have looked much improved in their last 2. Saturday they beat Curzon 3-0 and then got a 1-1 draw against Farsley on Tuesday. They come into this game with plenty of confidence and that could be enough to see off a rusty Hereford. I am certainly happy to take a chance on them at 13/5.
    Gloucester City v Bradford Park Avenue
    I have watched all of Gloucester's games so far this season and it feels like I am not watching my own side given how impressive we have been. I tipped us up at the start of the season to win the league based on the team which looked strong and it has been great to see that they have performed on the pitch. I was concerned about manager's James Rowe lack of experience, but full credit to him as he has got the team playing well and it is clear there is great team spirit in the squad. An impressive 19 goals have been scored and I think the home performances have been especially impressive. The one concern is the lack of a clean sheet and again on Tuesday night they gifted Telford with a goal in the first 2 minutes. They weren't great in the 1st half, but in the 2nd half half City were totally dominant and fully deserved to run out 4-1 victors. As much as BPA are clearly a better side than the one that would have been relegated last season I just don't see how they can stop a rampant City forward line. Bookies still don't seem to have cottoned on to the fact City are one of the best sides in the division and the 10/11 that is available would be much shorter if York or Fylde were hosting BPA. I'm also going to add a bet on the -1 handicap at 23/10 which City have covered in all their home games so far.
    Havant & Waterlooville v Oxford City
    I know that Northampton were rubbish on Monday night, but that shouldn't take anything away from a superb performance from Oxford. That effort backs up their good form so far this season and although they lost to Hampton in their last league game that certainly doesn't put me off backing them against Havant. Havant are clearly one of the best teams in the division, but I think Oxford have it in them to win this and I would have them around the 2/1 mark and not the 3/1 they currently are.
    Aldershot 2pts @ 29/20 with Bet365
    Maidenhead 1pt @ 23/10 with Bet365
    Blyth Spartans 1pt @ 13/5 with BetVictor
    Gloucester City 3pts @ 10/11 Bet365 
    Gloucester City -1 1pt @ 23/10 with Betfair
    Oxford City 1pt @ 3/1 with Betfred
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