Non-League Predictions > December 23rd - January 2nd

[Darran]

This thread will have all the bets and previews for the Christmas period where 3 sets of league fixtures are due to take place although some have already been called off due to Covid and no doubt there will be more. My first bet though comes tonight in the FA Trophy.

Maldon & Tiptree v Gloucester

I am not going to get into the fact this game really shouldn't be allowed to be played, but basically it was called off on Saturday as a Maldon player got Covid. Now he played in their FA Trophy game last Tuesday so they may have to isolate the team, but chances are they have worked their way around that and my guess is they will have a strong team out. If they don't then we can just get out of the bet once the teams come through. What I do know is that Gloucester are resting players ahead of the busy Christmas period and it will be a youthful team mixed with fringe players. I really want us to win given all that has happened and if we do I will be as happy as you can be when you have done your money, but Maldon are a good team for their level and it would have been a tough game game with a strong Gloucester side. If Maldon do put out a first team then they are no 4/1 shots and will go off favourites in my view. I will endeavour to update when the team news comes through.

Maldon 2.5pts @ 4/1 with Bet365

[Darran]

Amazingly we put out a weak side and have still hammered them. Taken me by surprise I must say but there we go. Boxing Day tips will be up tomorrow at some point.

[Darran]

Usually Boxing Day is a busy day bets wise, but with half the games off in the National League South, 3 games off in the National League and of course no Step 3 action it is going to be much quieter than usual. It looks a tough set of fixtures as well so I have just 3 bets all in the National League.

Hartlepool v Halifax

Halifax hosted Hartlepool in the FA Trophy last week in what was a slightly crazy game that ended 3-3 and Halifax won on penalties. There was also 3 penalties in the game itself, 1 to Halifax and 2 to Hartlepool. In the space of 5 minutes in the 2nd half Halifax had a man sent off and there were 3 goals. I don't think there is a great deal between these two sides who are both showing signs of improving. Annoyingly the only game Halifax haven't won in their last 5 league games is when I put them up at Solihull, but crucially they are scoring goals now with 17 in that spell, plus the 3 in the FA Trophy. Hartlepool had a fantastic win on Tuesday when beating Stockport 4-0 although they did end up with just 9 men on the pitch. It was a surprising result and you wouldn't necessarily think they will back it up. I'd have these two much closer together in the betting and 27/10 with William Hill looks big.

Maidenhead v Wealdstone

I just wonder if Maidenhead's good form has come to an end. They went 7 games unbeaten in the league, but then lost to Altrincham, beat Eastleigh and then lost to Torquay. They also blew a 2 goal lead against Weymouth in the FA Trophy last weekend to lose 3-2. Wealdstone also looked like they were heading out of the Trophy as they were 3 down at half time, but scored 4 2nd half goals to win 4-3. They had been Weymouth in their previous league league game and are getting players back from injury as well as adding to the side. They probably look the strongest they have been for a while and I think they look a a bit of value to win this at 19/10 with Bet365.

Dover v Dagenham & Redbridge

Dagenham are a team I struggle to get right for some reason, but they really ought to be winning this. Dover haven't played a league game for over a month and have lost 7 of their 9 games. They lost to Woking on Saturday in the Trophy where they looked like a side who hadn't played in a while. Dagenham meanwhile won 5-2 against Ebbsfleet and that came on the back of a 1-0 win over leaders Torquay. They have only lost two of their last 7 league games so results are certainly improving and they have played some good teams in that spell. I think they should be odds on for this so odds against quotes look good.

Halifax 1pt @ 27/10 with William Hill

Wealdstone 1pt @ 19/10 with Bet365

Dagenham & Redbridge 2.5pts @ 11/10 with William Hill

[Mindfulness]

On 12/24/2020 at 6:02 PM, Darran said:

Dagenham & Redbridge 2.5pts @ 11/10 with William Hill

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/55374003

[Darran]

Get them right about once a season!

[Resolvedtwo]

Thanks for the tips Darran! Will there be anything for tomorrow?

[Darran]

A profit on Boxing Day with Dagenham winning. I have 7 bets for Monday and will be brief.

Halifax v Altrincham

Don't think there is much between these two sides at all with both in decent form at the moment and there is certainly value in the away team at 3/1 with BetVictor.

Notts County v Hartlepool

The home side are well rested having not played on Boxing Day and also resting players in their FA Trophy game. They looked good against Stockport in their last league game and they have the edge on Hartlepool.

Stockport v Wrexham

Like Notts County, Wrexham had the Saturday off and rested players in their FA Trophy game. Meanwhile Stockport had a league game last Tuesday which they lost 4-0 and ended up with 9 men. They then could only draw at Altrincham on Saturday. I think 11/4 about the away side is big with Stockport not at the top of their game at the moment.

Yeovil v Aldershot

Just don't get the price of Aldershot here. Yeovil's only win in the league came at Bromley earlier in the month, but I watched that game and Bromley were awful. They lost 6-1 on Saturday at Torquay and granted Aldershot are far from being as good as Torquay, but they did well in beating Woking 3-0 on Saturday. My one concern is that being a big local derby they might take their eye of ball for this game, but I would have them as favourites so 5/2 is huge.

Bath City v Hungerford

There are only 3 games in the National League South and I am having a bet in them all. Bath are improving, but Hungerford are still doing well enough themselves and had Saturday off unlike Bath who could only draw against Chippenham despite having a man advantage for most of the game.

Billericay v Braintree

These two played this tie in the FA Trophy recently and despite having to make changes as they had cup tied players Braintree still managed to get through on penalties and then pushed Havant close in the next round. Braintree are much improved since changing their manager and have strengthened well. Those cup tied players will be back here and they look a big price.

Hampton & Richmond v Dulwich Hamlet

Hampton beat Dorking on Saturday mainly thanks to their goalkeeper, but their home form isn't much to write about having lost 3 and only beating Bath in 5 home league matches. Dulwich have performed better away from home and didn't have to play on Saturday and they look value.

Altrincham 1pt @ 3/1 with BetVictor

Notts County 2pts @ 6/5 with William Hill

Wrexham 1pt @ 11/4 with Bet365

Aldershot 2pts @ 5/2 with Bet365

Hungerford 1pt @ 6/4 with Bet365

Braintree 2pts @ 13/5 with BetVictor

Dulwich Hamlet 1pt @ 12/5 with BetVictor

[allthethings]

The matches I keep track of specifically involve dogs to favorites of better than 2.00 (closing line), and I was hoping to see lots of them because the sandwich match between Boxing Day and New Year's is always full of outright wins by dogs. Currently there are just two: Altrincham and Weymouth, but they are very live dogs in this situation.

[Resolvedtwo]

Huge drift on Hungerford. 11/5 on 365 now.

[Darran]

1 hour ago, Resolvedtwo said:

Huge drift on Hungerford. 11/5 on 365 now.

I’m not surprised Asia have always wanted to be against Hungerford all season 

[Seguros]

1 hour ago, Darran said:

I’m not surprised Asia have always wanted to be against Hungerford all season 

Why? Some rich people connected to the club bet heavily against them on Asian markets and then deliberately lose??

Edited December 28, 2020 by Seguros

[Johnmccain]

I think he's more referring to Asian betters having trends for certain clubs, that, based on whatever information they're using, make certain teams more favourable to bet on than others. For example, there could be a Chinese Darran out there who happens to think that Hungerford will get relegated this season therefore tips them up to lose quite often.

[Darran]

Basically people who struggle to get bets on with normal bookies use the Asian bookies to get on with. They will use their stats and base bets on that and I love it when they disagree with me as I tend to get more right than they do and I get even better rewarded because of it. Hungerford have drifted pretty much every game even when they were winning loads. 

[allthethings]

Over the years, home dogs of up to 4.00 in the N/S leagues have been cash cows; Hungerford in fact won at home against Chippenham and Dorking in October. But the overall trend hasn't held up too well: 14-23-31 over the past two seasons, and hasn't been a thing since 2017-18. That season and before, they won at a bit better than 30 percent at odds averaging 3.70. As I said, it's draws lately, but given the odds, even with a record of 5-10-6, if you'd played all wins you'd only be down 5.5 units.

Regarding my earlier post, Weymouth are not a play at odds over 5.00, but Wrexham and Hartlepool have drifted out and join Altrincham as plays for me. Since I bet just before closing, this may change depending on what the odds do.

[Seguros]

what if you played only rising odds, regardless they are high or low? Maybe this is a strategy as normally the bigger odds the more value?

[allthethings]

3 minutes ago, allthethings said:

Over the years, home dogs of up to 4.00 in the N/S leagues have been cash cows; Hungerford in fact won at home against Chippenham and Dorking in October. But the overall trend hasn't held up too well: 14-23-31 over the past two seasons, and hasn't been a thing since 2017-18. That season and before, they won at a bit better than 30 percent at odds averaging 3.70. As I said, it's draws lately, but given the odds, even with a record of 5-10-6, if you'd played all wins you'd only be down 5.5 units.

Regarding my earlier post, Weymouth are not a play at odds over 5.00, but Wrexham and Hartlepool have drifted out and join Altrincham as plays for me. Since I bet just before closing, this may change depending on what the odds do.

Old age for you: I go on and on about home dogs in N/S and forget to add the part about away dogs, which Hungerford are. Hungerford have won at Tonbridge and Hemel Hempstead as dogs of up to 4.00, and that's a trend hitting at 27 percent over the years and 30 percent this season (15-11-24).

[buga00]

Hungerford winning 2-0 21 minutes ?

[Darran]

Not been a great Festive period, but hopefully we can start the new year off to a winning start with these 6.

Weymouth v Eastleigh

Eastleigh have stopped scoring goals and although they had some good chances on Boxing Day in the reverse fixture they couldn't break the deadlock. Their game against Woking on the box wasn't overly exciting and again ended 0-0. Weymouth came out the wrong side of a 7 goal thriller on Monday against Torquay, but it was certainly a big step in the right direction following from the Eastleigh draw and a win in the FA Trophy against Maidenhead. 5/2 is too big a price for me on a home win.

Woking v Aldershot

I am going to go with Aldershot again. I did wonder if after winning the big derby game on Boxing Day might have an effect against Yeovil and it clearly did. Back to playing Woking again and I am expecting a better performance and the 5/2 should be around 7/4 for me.

Yeovil v Torquay

Yeovil were shocking in the reverse fixture on Boxing Day especially in defence and obviously they have won since as mentioned above. Torquay though will fancy their chances and even though they had to work hard to beat Weymouth they are a better team than Yeovil. I think they should be odds on so am happy to take odds against.

Hampton & Richmond v Dorking

I must admit I thought I got a bit lucky with Dulwich on Monday as Hampton going down to 10 really helped them. Hampton gave it their all in the 2nd half as well and missed a penalty. They deserved a point, but it did continue their poor home form and Dorking did everything but score against them on Boxing Day. I'm surprised Dorking aren't favourites as I think they will get revenge for the Boxing Day defeat.

AFC Fylde v Chorley

The home side are not in good form going into this. They have only one once in 6 league games and lost 3-1 in the reverse fixture on Boxing Day which Chorley deservedly won. Chorley obviously have a big FA Cup tie to look forward to and when I put them up to beat Peterborough I mentioned they were in a false position which they have been proving in the league. They haven't lost in 9 league games and have won 4 of their last 5. They look value to win this.

Kidderminster v Hereford

Granted Hereford were helped by a sending off on Boxing Day, but they still came from a goal down and Herford have only lost once in their last 6 league games now. They also beat Fylde in their previous league game. Kiddie are top of the last 10 form table, but they have lost 2 of their last 3 in the league and Hereford look over priced at 3/1.

Weymouth 1pt @ 5/2 with Bet365

Aldershot 1pt @ 5/2 with Bet365

Torquay 2pts @ 23/20 with BetVictor

Dorking 2pts @ 17/10 with Betfred

Chorley 1pt @ 2/1 with William Hill

Hereford 1pt @ 3/1 with Bet365

[Darran]

December was very much a month of 2 halves. From the start until the 12th I had 12/18 winners. From the 15th until the end I have had just 4/21 winners. Still most of the losers have just been 1pt selections so there was little damage done to the great profits from the first half and I was still 36pts up on the month from 61.5 staked.

The yearly total stands at 197pts staked and 155pts profit.

[blueboy199]

10 hours ago, Darran said:

The yearly total stands at 197pts staked and 155pts profit.

Played, mate. Thanks.

[Seguros]

Darran don't you think Torquay has helped a bbit Yeovil?

 

there are big connections with clubs, they are more or less from the same region and Johnsons family is well etablished in both clubs?

[Darran]

6 hours ago, Seguros said:

Darran don't you think Torquay has helped a bbit Yeovil?

 

there are big connections with clubs, they are more or less from the same region and Johnsons family is well etablished in both clubs?

Why would Torquay want to help Yeovil out? They certainly didn't do that on Boxing Day and they are trying to win the league.

[Seguros]

19 hours ago, Darran said:

Why would Torquay want to help Yeovil out? They certainly didn't do that on Boxing Day and they are trying to win the league.

Because they are from the same region. Not many teams from that region  in the league and  I guess it is beneficient for everyone to have many derbies which will electrify publicity and generate revenue

 

Besides Johnsons family well established all around and who knows maybe in future one of Mr Johnsons would need a job and they build good relations?

 

Lee Johnson is a apoor manager unlike his father when he needs a job Yeovil might take him

 

Its just keeping/building good relations I believe

Edited January 5, 2021 by Seguros

[Darran]

No chance. Torquay are looking to win the league so wouldn’t be playing Yeovil next season anyway. Lee has never managed in non league football so would be very surprised if he ever ended up at Yeovil