godofhorses

Hereford 3.10
Town Parks 9/4 Bet365
Usual Monday stuff and nothing is jumping off the page, the one handicapper I like is Town Parks from the Kerry Lee yard. Only 5 runners here and to be honest I have between the two market leaders which is not very original I know.
Becauseshesaidso bolted up at Chepstow last time and that just about typifies a slow chaser from this yard, he's up 12 lbs and i'm not sure this track will suit. Town Parks has had four starts over fences and got off the mark at Uttoxeter last time when receiving the full Jamie Moore treatment, he's up 3lbs but probably can build on that now and looks the most solid option.

Agree with Frodon, already on Each Way! GL

My apologies if the following upsets or angers anyone but there are times when the saying "Being cruel to be kind" is true and facts indisputable.
I have never read any of the "systems threads" on here and rarely on other sites and then only to point out the obvious failure.Quite simply there is not a "system" that will make a long term profit from betting on horse racing.Short term there have been possibilities,mathematical or otherwise.
Long term there is more chance of finding an honest politicain,a BHA member of staff with common sense or a Bookmaker/Accountant willing to keep your account alive and accept bets that consistently win more than they lose.This apart there is no system that can worry any Bookie alive or dead even before they became accountants.
I have been active before in highlighting this on various forums and including the likes of Racing Post,Betfair etc.I have obtained almost every so called "System" known to man since gambling became a part of life.All trialled and tested over 2 decades,some paid for just to obtain the so called "System".I spent over a decade on research and found that even before this digital age,most were nothing more than a variation of centuries old turning base metals into gold.
Nothing has changed and especially now in 2018 it is about time punters woke up to the fact there is no pot of gold at the end of the rainbow.Without going into the merits of each "System" or otherwise.The plain and simple facts is that there is not a Bookmaker in Businness who will even let you beyond the point of initial succeess which some "systems" produce.
So why do these punters persist in following the posts and perpetuating the myth in 2018 when not only has it been proven THEY DO NOT WORK,never have,never will and even if they did would not be accommodated by ANY bookie this side of a grave?

Hi Striker, I know both these horses. Jack Blane is a good eway horse to follow. It did have a stinker of a last race, but if you forgive that I think it will like It’s first outing at this track and runs if it’s perfect racing weight. (Just like myself!!!) I’m going to put it in my eway Yankee! Oh I forgot it’s got stall 13 that’s why I’m only sticking it in a small Yankee.
Be Bold is down to a very nice mark and should like Southwell with its leg action but hasn’t exactly proved that point and out of form. But you pay your money and hope.

I see Ollie Murphy has a boat load of runners at Fakenham on Monday and he is certainly seems to be flavour of the month for many punters.
i'm not going overboard about him just yet, he seems to be just trying to get the winners on the board rather than thinking of the long term, thats ok for some but i'd like to think the jumping game is about bringing horses on steadily and letting them mature to reach their full potential. Murphy is trying to do what Mr Pipe did a few years ago, running fit horses in bad races and then discarding them.
Dan Skelton said its not difficult to buy a cheap/bad horse, freshen it up, and get it to win a race on its comeback but you cant often make a bad horse do it twice within a short space of time. Murphy has been guilt of running poor horses with a penalty within days and has come unstuck. He recently said he had learnt a valuable lesson and said horses need time to recover, all of his 11 runners on Monday have had at least 3 weeks off since their last run.
I have noticed a lot of his runners are very poor value as he often uses Richard Johnson, he looks a trainer to take on to me at the moment, obviously he has one or two decent horses but he has a lot of moderate animals too. 
I guess the aim is to get a few winners on the board, attract better owners and buy better horses. I just don't like the idea of buying 20 cheap ones, running them in rubbish races until their mark is too high and then flogging them at a loss never to be heard of again. I'll watch his progress with interest, he has good contacts so should do ok but he has a bit to learn yet.
 

Oh I love horse racing!!!!!!

Don’t feel there is any value in my fancied runners so I’m going to save my hard earned for a better day.
i will however play a really small doubles and trebles bet on
2.00 Lingfield Jumping Jack (my sons name and think it has a squeak)8/1
2.55 Mussel  Neyfn bay 7/2 if it jumps better it could win
8.45 Newcastle star cracker 11/2 has course form
 
 

Yes I did jumping jack each way in my bet and Nefyn Bay won. Just got my last one now! I thought jumping jack was going to win  it for a split second!

Thanks, totally agreed on this and had a nice go on it. Also doubled it with mine but no luck! Some horses or most can’t run 2 races the same! 

200 Ludlow
Actinpieces 5/2 bet365
Thought this one ran really well last time in better company at Wetherby. Ended up 4th in a finish of neck and heads and was staying on the best in the closing stages. Had 23 days to get over that and she looks to have found a nice opportunity to get back to winning ways. Trainer Pam Sly doesn't come here that often but is 2/7 over the last 5 years with her chasers so would only be here if she thought she had a squeak.

I feel same. Think a walk over would fall. I was going to put up Whatswrongwithyou but I was put off with short price of stablemate. Usually like that sort of thing and it’s a case of lost confidence. I’ve brushed myself down and told myself to brave the weather. I ve been following your tips this year and will continue to do so. Minor blip. 

I see it fell! Some bookies do faller insurance which I do sometimes! However on looking at your long list of tips I did agree with your Mr Andros! Got me up after my horse came 2nd.

4.35 Kempton Mercers 9/1 B365 1/4 odds
Got to get up early tomorrow! So my second horse is one that I’ve backed this each way. Runs off a good mark, ran reasonably well off a much higher mark last time at Krmpton and won last time out at Lingfield and has a decent 7lb claimer on board. Take a look and decide! I’m on! 

Triple Chance ..... 3 selections for big field Jumps handicaps of 12 plus runners based on early price favourite at time of posting, Racing post Verdict selection and my EW shot at bigger odds, generally a horse with course form which might outrun it's odds. Between those 3 selections we get lots of winners and placed horses.
Few races today ! ....... selections with current odds
Kemp 2.40
EP Fav - Diese des Bieffes 5/1
RP Verdict - Spiritofhtegames at 16/1
My EW - Bags Groove at 16/1 - CD winner, won last two races, on the upgrade and lightly raced - just the type for a valuable handicap
Warw 12. 40
EP Fav - Equus Millar at 6/1
RP Verdict - Destined to Shine at 17/2
My EW - Peppay le Pugh at 14/1 - bit tricky this race as none of the bigger priced ones have course form. Picked this one as ran well last time after a break and should come on for the run in which case will be thereabouts
Warw 2.25 
EP Fave - Black Ivory 9/2
RP Verdict - Black Ivory 9/2
My EW - Kris Spin at 10/1 - bit of an old timer now but thorough stayer, CD winner, should be plugging at the end of 3 miles on soft ground
Warw 3.35
EP Fave - Missed Approach at 5/1
RP Verdict - Missed Approach at 5/1
My EW - Goodtoknow at 14/1 - 2nd in this race last year, Unseated 2nd on seasonal debut then pulled up in the Becher after running prominently for a long way,. This represents a drop in class and hopefully he'll come on for that Aintree run. 
Let's see how we get on !
 
 

2.10 Taunton - wicked willy - £20 win
 

Leicester 14.50 £10 EW Zayfire Aramis 10/1 Bet365

A nice winner as I got on at 9/2. I was going to put my Southwell winner Helen Sherbert at 25/1 on here but you can put them all!!!

Hi Jonshell, thanks for the advice. Unlucky not to get a place in the end. I agreed that it was in with a shout. I did it eway and thought we was going to pick up.

4.15 Wolves £10 win Grey Destiny @ £5 reverse forecast 1&3.

1.00 Chepstow Another Venture 3/1 B365
Granted this looks between 3 horses. 
Scotchtown looks a decent horse, with a lot of weight on with the claimer bring replaced by Twiston Davies. Some might say the better jockey negates this. (Sometimes I agree). Now Pure Vision, up lumps in weight and class. (Not for me)Another Venture proven in Grade down in trip with a handy 5lb claim.

12.55 Southwell 
Magic Pulse at 9/4 with B365 as I think it’s the best horse in the race. I’ve done a cover bet on Snaffled in case it decides to run up to its owners expectations.

A couple of interest on the a/w today
Southwell 
1.40  Awesome Allan            Should be in with a shout if he takes to the surface - around 4/1
Wolverhampton
5.10   Arnarson                     Still a maiden but looks a fair bet to finally get his head in front - around 11/4
 

11.40 ling shadow warrior each way 12s 
all weather figs of 6-2-2 but 6th was on debut and at Kempton so I'll forgive that run. ran well fresh in the past when 3rd after similar lay off behind better horses than this. only concern is that it's never ran at this distance before having placed at 7f and won at 10f. Kirby booked for the  yard is only 1/30 and 9 places and trainer not had a winner on all weather in last 12months but apart from that there's positives

105 Catterick 
Paddling 5/2 bet365
Hopefully Catterick will miss all of the bad weather thats forecast and the meeting goes ahead. I like the look of Paddling who contests a very average Class 5 handicap chase. First of all the yard are going well which is a big plus and I think this horse is capable of much better than his current mark of 89. He was useless over hurdles, never got closer than 43 lengths behind the winner and didn't do much better in 3 bumpers.
His 3 runs over fences have been much better, all over 2 miles. He now steps up in trip and has a good third last time out to his name, he should now be ready to do himself justice.

I’ve already backed Right Action in this race each way. Likes the trip/track, has a good draw. Sebastian takes another 4lb of to the other claimer who took 3. On a good mark now. Not the easiest of races but I thought it was value.