The bearer of bad news,systems!!!

[Glentoby]

My apologies if the following upsets or angers anyone but there are times when the saying "Being cruel to be kind" is true and facts indisputable.

I have never read any of the "systems threads" on here and rarely on other sites and then only to point out the obvious failure.Quite simply there is not a "system" that will make a long term profit from betting on horse racing.Short term there have been possibilities,mathematical or otherwise.

Long term there is more chance of finding an honest politicain,a BHA member of staff with common sense or a Bookmaker/Accountant willing to keep your account alive and accept bets that consistently win more than they lose.This apart there is no system that can worry any Bookie alive or dead even before they became accountants.

I have been active before in highlighting this on various forums and including the likes of Racing Post,Betfair etc.I have obtained almost every so called "System" known to man since gambling became a part of life.All trialled and tested over 2 decades,some paid for just to obtain the so called "System".I spent over a decade on research and found that even before this digital age,most were nothing more than a variation of centuries old turning base metals into gold.

Nothing has changed and especially now in 2018 it is about time punters woke up to the fact there is no pot of gold at the end of the rainbow.Without going into the merits of each "System" or otherwise.The plain and simple facts is that there is not a Bookmaker in Businness who will even let you beyond the point of initial succeess which some "systems" produce.

So why do these punters persist in following the posts and perpetuating the myth in 2018 when not only has it been proven THEY DO NOT WORK,never have,never will and even if they did would not be accommodated by ANY bookie this side of a grave?

[Trotter]

I'm not sure many people do believe that there is such a thing as a long-term winning system

In fact I'm pretty sure nobody with any sense does

Most things that pass for 'systems' on forums generally involve some kind of judgment. I think for anything to count as a system it has to be automatic with no selection input or judgment choice

And there might be a place for a system even then

For example you might be very busy but want a runner in the daily competition on PL ........ something random like 'highest weighted CD winner in the biggest field handicap of the day and if there isn't one go down to the next biggest field and so on' would be a system which would give you a runner every day for a bit of interest but not take up too much time

 

 

[Glentoby]

Like throwing a dart at a dartboard or rolling a pair of dice? Nobody with ANY sense could expect a profit so why are there thousands of posts on the "systems" threads and few on the actual machinations of the industies of horse racing and bookmaking?

[Sir Puntalot]

To some punters, it's quite simply "fun" - not everyone is serious about making profits, and some just love researching different angles.

I agree with 90% of what you say, but there are some exceptions, some of which are on this very forum. Anyone remember @slapdash  Bog Trotting all over the bookmakers time and time again?

I do  

 

[BillyHills]

I wish i could have a system where by i get a pound for every time i read a post where it says systems dont work.

Quote

I have never read any of the "systems threads" on here

So why the post??

I think he misses the point about the 'chase' of the glory trail and how much fun it can give you searching for it. Life is too serious at times.

[EviL ZippY]

10 hours ago, Glentoby said:

I have never read any of the "systems threads" on here

wait, so you’re trashing something you admit you know nothing about ?

David Davis, is that you..???

[Snoopdog]

I'm with Trotter's response. I use systems for my shortlisting and pointers. Then I make the final judgement. Not fully automatic, but still using systems.

[Sir Puntalot]

I think it's fair to say that we all have a "systematic approach" to how we bet, some may be simple, some complex, otherwise it's just a pin job or "ooooh I like those colours!".  

[Alastair]

I agree with the above that most successful punters will adopt a systematic approach - I think it goes too far to say that there can never be a winning system but if somebody does have one you would think that they would keep it to themselves and not be publishing it for free on the internet - or trying to sell it for a tenner.

[corky]

20 hours ago, Trotter said:

I'm not sure many people do believe that there is such a thing as a long-term winning system

In fact I'm pretty sure nobody with any sense does

Most things that pass for 'systems' on forums generally involve some kind of judgment. I think for anything to count as a system it has to be automatic with no selection input or judgment choice

And there might be a place for a system even then

For example you might be very busy but want a runner in the daily competition on PL ........ something random like 'highest weighted CD winner in the biggest field handicap of the day and if there isn't one go down to the next biggest field and so on' would be a system which would give you a runner every day for a bit of interest but not take up too much time

 

 

i agree with "it has to be automatic" like bottom weight in a handicap, top weight in a nursery,highest rated in a claimer and the fav in a hunters chase when its top weight

[corky]

there are millions of systems out there, and some find they work for them, but as always if you bet  for fun you may have a more enjoyment, but if betting to make a living,then its no fun only hard cash

[Birchy]

Most people bet for fun as they like the thrill of watching their selection win. It's as simple as that - entertainment value.

Betting at a professional level is a completely different approach. Price vs probability is the key, but "value" bets will never be found using public knowledge such as "top weight in 3 mile handicaps", "beaten favourites", "course and distance winners", etc. When bookmakers compile their books, they use every ounce of information available to calculate the probability, from which they calculate their prices. With overrounds in excess of 10%, punters are already out of pocket before they even place a bet. They have to beat the overround just to break even. As long as everyone is using the same information to make a decision, nobody will ever have an edge. The end result will always be the same despite various interpretations.

The bookies DO get the prices wrong occasionally but long term, their overround brings them a profit. It's like the roulette wheel - punters might win short term on a lucky streak, but long term they WILL lose to the house edge.

As they say on the adverts: "when the fun stops - STOP".

Edited January 26, 2018 by Birchy

[Alastair]

Surely it is how information is interpreted that is key - coupled with the right temperament. I think it is wrong to say that if everyone is using the same information that nobody will ever have an edge. There will be individuals who are more talented and better suited to the job in hand than others.

[Glentoby]

12 hours ago, EviL ZippY said:

wait, so you’re trashing something you admit you know nothing about ?

David Davis, is that you..???

In case you missed it "Spent 2 decades + researching" So trashing something I have probably forgotten more about than most will learn? LOL

[Alastair]

7 minutes ago, Glentoby said:

In case you missed it "Spent 2 decades + researching" So trashing something I have probably forgotten more about than most will learn? LOL

But you can't automatically assume that because you have failed that no one else has succeeded.

[Glentoby]

16 minutes ago, Alastair said:

Surely it is how information is interpreted that is key - coupled with the right temperament. I think it is wrong to say that if everyone is using the same information that nobody will ever have an edge. There will be individuals who are more talented and better suited to the job in hand than others.

Nothing to do with information Alastair,solely commenting on so called "Systems" and why do people follow them knowing from the start they cannot win?

As far as I am aware I personally own the only method which will produce a long term profit,not a "system" as popularly refered to and devised after 2 decades + of research.My sole motivation for posting on any racing or betting forum is to give the average punter an edge.No more,no less.

My method would be no good to the average or even prudent punter or greedy chancers.I had an offer to purchase it following a trial by 4 individuals on the BF Forum,over a year using it.Bound by copyright etc and proven beyond doubt the worth of it.

The only time I was tempted to sell I had an offer that was £40,000 short of the £600,000 I would accept.All documented and recorded for posterity.I would only sell on condition that the proceeds went to SSAFA,knowing full well that would be the only payoff.

The offer came from a well known tipping operation who continue to rip off punters Nationwide and now coming up to their most lucrative period.

It is still for sale but £600k is the minumum I would consider to part with it on behalf of SSAFA!!

[Glentoby]

Where did I say I failed Alastair? I stated that every system known to me had failed,trialled and  proven through research.this for the benefit of the average punter and those who still think there is a pot of gold at the end of a rainbow.

I understand your reference to information but puzzled as to "What" information this might be,is it technological,mathematical or otherwise?

At least you are engaging in terms of inquiring,something that seems lacking on this site? It is a great site so don't get me wrong but Question,Question,Question should be the basis of a Forum and this is a platform for this.

I want to help,in any way shape or form for punters to make a profit or even just enjoy having a punt with a bit more knowledge?

[Glentoby]

2 hours ago, Birchy said:

Most people bet for fun as they like the thrill of watching their selection win. It's as simple as that - entertainment value.

Betting at a professional level is a completely different approach. Price vs probability is the key, but "value" bets will never be found using public knowledge such as "top weight in 3 mile handicaps", "beaten favourites", "course and distance winners", etc. When bookmakers compile their books, they use every ounce of information available to calculate the probability, from which they calculate their prices. With overrounds in excess of 10%, punters are already out of pocket before they even place a bet. They have to beat the overround just to break even. As long as everyone is using the same information to make a decision, nobody will ever have an edge. The end result will always be the same despite various interpretations.

The bookies DO get the prices wrong occasionally but long term, their overround brings them a profit. It's like the roulette wheel - punters might win short term on a lucky streak, but long term they WILL lose to the house edge.

As they say on the adverts: "when the fun stops - STOP".

As accurate and true reflection as you are likely to read.

[BillyHills]

Quote

When bookmakers compile their books, they use every ounce of information available to calculate the probability, from which they calculate their prices.

You would be surprised how quickly they form a market and do not look too deeply at all of the information.

You only have to look at the market at about 4.30pm and then check them a couple of hours later to see their careless errors, in which they rely on early punters to point them in the right direction. They do get it wrong quite a lot but adjust it quickly so most people end up seeing the 'proper' prices once they have settled down. 

[corky]

 

As far as I am aware I personally own the only method which will produce a long term profit,not a "system" as popularly refered to and devised after 2 decades + of research.My sole motivation for posting on any racing or betting forum is to give the average punter an edge.No more,no less.

 

ive enjoyed reading your posts since you came one here earlier this month, but to put a bold statement that you "own"a method that profits long term, and you want to give the average punter the edge, i have to ask, (sorry) prove it

[Valiant Thor]

1 hour ago, Glentoby said:

As far as I am aware I personally own the only method which will produce a long term profit,not a "system" as popularly refered to and devised after 2 decades + of research.My sole motivation for posting on any racing or betting forum is to give the average punter an edge.No more,no less.

My method would be no good to the average or even prudent punter or greedy chancers.I had an offer to purchase it following a trial by 4 individuals on the BF Forum,over a year using it.Bound by copyright etc and proven beyond doubt the worth of it.

The only time I was tempted to sell I had an offer that was £40,000 short of the £600,000 I would accept.All documented and recorded for posterity.I would only sell on condition that the proceeds went to SSAFA,knowing full well that would be the only payoff.

The offer came from a well known tipping operation who continue to rip off punters Nationwide and now coming up to their most lucrative period.

It is still for sale but £600k is the minimum I would consider to part with it on behalf of SSAFA!!

Cant wait for the "just send me your email" punchline.

As for your systems dont work you obviously never came across the one printed in the Sporting Chronicle in 1948.

My grandad called it his beer money system,my father also used it for extra cash .

I used it myself for spending money until over several years built up my stake gradually until it can be used for a second income.(its got a bit more difficult the past year as Im now restricted from all bar Sky bet and Hills) but thats life.

It amuses me when "experts" such as yourself tell me systems dont work .

Yet you just happen to have the one that does "lordy lordy its a miracle'

But then Im not trying to educate punters (I think they're big enough to make up there own minds)

ATB with your 600k system  (mine cost my grandad 6d I think, well thats inflation for you)

 

Edited January 26, 2018 by Valiant Thor

[Glentoby]

With respect Billy they do not get it wrong quite a lot,in fact rarely make a rick.If they did they would be out of business rather quicker than an average pimp whos best girl comes down with a dose of STD and I don't mean STD falling off a 1/10 shot after the final hurdle.

I ill not be surprised at any shortening or 

5 minutes ago, corky said:

 

As far as I am aware I personally own the only method which will produce a long term profit,not a "system" as popularly refered to and devised after 2 decades + of research.My sole motivation for posting on any racing or betting forum is to give the average punter an edge.No more,no less.

 

ive enjoyed reading your posts since you came one here earlier this month, but to put a bold statement that you "own"a method that profits long term, and you want to give the average punter the edge, i have to ask, (sorry) prove it

I can only prove that I own it Corky and cannot show it in practice for obvious reasons.However proved and proofed several years ago by 4 betfair forumites.Protected by Copyright and other non disclosure agreements.All documented and recorded on that Forum including the negotiations of sale and the potential purchasers and price.

Whether or not you are privvy to access I am sure others will confirm this,I do not tell lies!!

As made clear at the time,it is not for sale other than the figure mentioned to benefit SSAFA,so an individual would either have to be very wealthy or greedy.Disclosed it would be worthless to most.

[Glentoby]

19 minutes ago, Valiant Thor said:

Cant wait for the "just send me your email" punchline.

As for your systems dont work you obviously never came across the one printed in the Sporting Chronicle in 1948.

My grandad called it his beer money system,my father also used it for extra cash .

I used it myself for spending money until over several years built up my stake gradually until it can be used for a second income.(its got a bit more difficult the past year as Im now restricted from all bar Sky bet and Hills) but thats life.

It amuses me when "experts" such as yourself tell me systems dont work .

Yet you just happen to have the one that does "lordy lordy its a miracle'

But then Im not trying to educate punters (I think they're big enough to make up there own minds)

ATB with your 600k system  (mine cost my grandad 6d I think, well thats inflation for you)

 

Still subscribing to Brimardon then? My £560k offer "Might have come from a similar source"

Edited January 26, 2018 by Glentoby
spelling

[Glentoby]

Gone quiet all? Checking up or chewing the cud?

At least it has sparked a debate and a response sadly lacking otherwise.When you have checked and confirmed the authenticity of what I have said please feel free to continue the conversation?

if any doubt feel free to ring Brimardon or any other tipping organisation ripping you off with false claims,include if you must the Racing Post.I can guarantee here and now or any Court of Law,most of them are aware of the fact that not only are my claims true and valid but that I will expose those trying to fraudulently extract the hard earned or otherwise gained CASH from a punters pocket!!!!

[Saint R]

600k is quite alot of money to me at this moment in time but if you wish I will do a deal with you?

I have in my possession a small amount of,let's say magic beans. To cut a long story short the family farm fortunes dwindled and mother decided to send me to market with our last tangible asset..a cow.Now me being bone idle I decided not to do the yardage around said market and instead decided to exchange the cow with the first stall holder I met for the beans which he promised me would bring our family untold fortunes.

Now our family being skint an all we have had to downgrade our family home to a two bedroom terrace with just a small buffer garden,hence not having any garden space to grow the bloody things.

I'll give you a few days to deliberate,you spill the beans with your secret system and I'll send you my beans first class to you in cloud cuckoo land.

Thanks in advance,

Jack.

[BillyHills]

Dont bite guys, black is white etc.....he's playing with you.

[BillyHills]

Quote

With respect Billy they do not get it wrong quite a lot,in fact rarely make a rick.If they did they would be out of business rather quicker than an average pimp whos best girl comes down with a dose of STD and I don't mean STD falling off a 1/10 shot after the final hurdle.

With respect GT, i hardly ever post anything without substance or experience, a former job of odds compiler at a well known bookie allows me to state 'they' do work on a margin and have to alter the prices pretty quickly early on. I didn't say it cost them much as they can limit/refuse any bet as you know, In the trade these are classed as 'errors'.

[Valiant Thor]

8 hours ago, Glentoby said:

Still subscribing to Brimardon then? My £560k offer "Might have come from a similar source"

Wouldnt subscribe to any tipping service.

Pains me to subscribe to RP (minimum)

Bye and Bye , Ive been off work for a few months now with a damaged knee, which unfortunately looks like it needs an operation,

You wouldnt happen to have any snake oil available so i dont have to have the op.

ATB 

[Valiant Thor]

13 minutes ago, BillyHills said:

Dont bite guys, black is white etc.....he's playing with you.

I know who it is

It son of of Che Van Der Wheil 

And he has the missing papers

[foxinexile]

9 hours ago, Glentoby said:

With respect Billy they do not get it wrong quite a lot,in fact rarely make a rick.If they did they would be out of business rather quicker than an average pimp whos best girl comes down with a dose of STD and I don't mean STD falling off a 1/10 shot after the final hurdle.

I ill not be surprised at any shortening or 

I can only prove that I own it Corky and cannot show it in practice for obvious reasons.However proved and proofed several years ago by 4 betfair forumites.Protected by Copyright and other non disclosure agreements.All documented and recorded on that Forum including the negotiations of sale and the potential purchasers and price.

Whether or not you are privvy to access I am sure others will confirm this,I do not tell lies!!

As made clear at the time,it is not for sale other than the figure mentioned to benefit SSAFA,so an individual would either have to be very wealthy or greedy.Disclosed it would be worthless to most.

Could you provide us with a link to the specific thread on the Betfair forum so we can confirm this for ourselves?