ElPrincipito007

3 easy wins in a row, good start of the new year. What do you think of the matches today? 

Selby and Ding out already. Not too suprised with the history of the two in this competition. Allen Vs Gilbert should be a close match tonight. Allen looks abit out of form at the moment after being beat 6-0 by Lu Ning and losing to the likes of Gerard Greene. It's a tough one because Allen does tend to raise his game for big events but then Gilbert will want to impress here. I'm tempted by Gilbert.
4pts D.Gilbert to beat M.Allen 6/4 paddypower

2 to add for today. One based on how poor Zifan has been recently and the other I just think will be a closer match then expected. It's been a while since Mark Williams was beating anybody easily.
6pts L.Heathcote to beat C.Zifan 4/6 bet365
5pts C.Steadman (+2.5 frames) to beat M.Williams evens

I've asked this in the past, but it wasn't something the forum liked the idea of.
*edit - however, i'm happy to add profit/loss on my own tips. I can start doing that from the Worlds. Remember though, you don't have a gun against your head with peoples tips. People love you then hate you in the same day with tips. You'll give them multiple 16/1 winners and then you get a couple of even shots lose and you're useless. It's a fickle world.

Well that is frustrating. Si Jiahui waited until 5-0 down before playing his natural game and got it back to 5-5 before losing 6-5. Ah well, when you back the underdogs your strikerate isn't going to be brilliant
I'll take Anthony Hamilton today to beat Sam Baird. Hamilton has won both previous head-to-heads and only this year beat Baird 4-0. Next up, I'll go with Honghao against Robbie Williams. This one will probably be very close, but Honghao has already shown he has the bottle under pressure and has already beaten Williams in the Worlds this year 10-8.
Mark King is currently in abit of a slump of form and he faces a decent player in Chang Bingyu. I'll take Bingyu here at a nice price. I think Harvey Chandler has a good chance against Milkins. Milkins beat him 4-0 in their only h2h, but that was back when Chandler was a teenager. Chandler has beaten Day and Maflin this year and so I think it's worth a punt.
Finally two handicap bets. The first being Ferg O'Brien against Michael White. I'll continue to lay white because I just don't think his head is in the game and O'Brien is quite an underrated player. All 3 head-to-heads have been won by O'Brien and all 3 would have covered this handicap. Other one is Un-Nooh against Jamie O'Neill. Un-Nooh has already beaten O'Neill this season 5-1 and I just do not see Jamie getting 3 frames.
6pts A.Hamilton to beat S.Baird 4/6 bet365
6pts L.Honghao to beat R.Williams 5/6 coral
4pts C.Bingyu to beat M.King 13/8 coral
2.5pts H.Chandler to beat R.Milkins 13/5 ladbrokes
5pts F.O'Brien (-1.5 frames) to beat M.White 4/5 bet365
5pts T.Un-Nooh (-3.5 frames) to beat J.O'Neill evens bet365
 

Day 1 :
I've just been looking at what matches are on tomorrow and it's a very close card. It's a real 50/50 kind of day in alot of matches and there is only 1 that catches my eye. I'll take Zhang Anda to beat Daniel Wells tomorrow evening. Anda has beaten Wells in all the head-2-heads they have played and if you take away expected losses (Trump, Allen) then you'd have to say Anda is playing well. He's beaten Murphy this season. Daniel Wells has lost his last 3 in a row and although one of those was Judd Trump (4-0 thrashing) the other defeats against Bond and Selt, he'd need more than that performance to beat Anda.
I'll stick with just this one for tomorrow. I'm tempted by a couple others (Pengfei to beat Craigie for example) but it's just so 50/50 for me.
5.5pts Z.Anda to beat D.Wells 8/11 ladbrokes

Huge ranking event gets started tomorrow. The Betway UK Championships, in York. 128 players line up for the biggest tournament of the season (so far) and it will stay that way until April. Over the years, Ronnie O'Sullivan has almost taken this tournament as his own, with the most UK titles of any player (7) He has to be respected, going for his hat-trick of wins here in a row also.
Ronnie is in the top half, which houses Kyren Wilson, Shuan Murphy. Ding Junhui, John Higgins and Neil Robertson. Not to mention dangerous players like Un-Nooh and Xintong. Based on this, for me, the place to be looking is the bottom half. Judd Trump is just on fire right now, and it's hard to see anybody beating him right now. I just can't take him at 3/1.
My main bet will be Mark Allen. In the top half I think Robertson has a pretty regulation passage until the quarter-finals in which he would face Higgins/Bingham/Un-Nooh and so I'll be looking at one/two of those three for some interest in the top-half. In the bottom half, I like Allen. His pathway isn't the nicest. He would face Hawkins quite early on (although Maflin may have something to say about that) and then he'd face Trump but as eluded to prior, Allen has a good record against Trump.
I'll also take a few worthy "outsider" punts, which this year include Gilbert and Un-Nooh, and then a few mammoth outsiders for quarter bets. Including, Cahill, Ford and Si Jiahui, whom I see as a future star.
3pts E/W M.Allen to win UK Championships 16/1 bet365
2pts S.Bingham to win UK Championships 33/1 bet365
1pt E/W D.Gilbert to win UK Championships 50/1 boylesports
0.5pts E/W T.Un-Nooh to win UK Championships 150/1 sportingbet

0.5pts T.Ford to win Quarter 1 50/1 paddypower
0.5pts J.Cahill to win Quarter 3 100/1 paddypower
0.5pts Si Jiahui to win Quarter 3 150/1 paddypower

 

Looking at today, I think that I'm just going to conserve the profits and see if there's anything interesting next week. If so, I'm going to have a couple of punts. If not, you can still expect a full season review from me - as always.

Xiwen is hitting the ball nicely at the moment and beat Paul Davison (who would have been far more ready to play after qualifying at cue-school) 4-0 and scored 3 50+ and a ton in them 4 frames. This price being close to evens is most likely because of Bingyu's performance in the 6-2 beating of Georgiou, but Georgiou can be very erractic in his play.
6pts M.Xiwen to beat C.Bingyu 5/6 betfair
 

This continues tomorrow and I'm just taking a look at the outright prices. This event looks all about the favourite, Neil Robertson. I can't see anybody but him winning it, but I also can't be taking nearly 3/1 for him to win so many matches. Looking further afield Mark Williams normally does well, but again 7/1 kind of range for a player who is bang out of form really doesn't appeal, despite his form in this event.
I'm going to take a punt on Lisowski. He got to the final of this event last year and he has a nice draw until the latter stages. He would stay away from Robertson until a potential final (which was ironically the final last year) and he is a good price. I'll also take a couple of big outsiders at a big price. Tiny stakes on Kurt Maflin and Lu Ning. Both have good drawers and I think they can go well here.
2pts E/W J.Lisowski to win Riga Masters 14/1 betvictor
0.5pts E/W S.Craigie to win Riga Masters 40/1 ladbrokes
0.25pts E/W K.Maflin to win Riga Masters 125/1 boylesports
0.25pts E/W L.Ning to win Riga Masters 150/1 betfred

Opelka won in straight sets  

Well, after 7 years after registering, I thought I'd post a big of my thoughts... The beginning was brilliant, as someone told me... that was nice...
But, as in real life, not only nice things happen... Wimbledon picks weren't great so far.. at least the ones I believed the most.. but I think with good money managment and self-thinking You could've taken something of that picks in advance...not to get into red, at least...
Just like yesterday and today, my most confident picks weren't succesfull... If not about the secondary ones, this would be a disaster... but it was just two days and still - it made user called 'eros' , a known one here, made me a send a private message about "how suicidal is to follow me" etc.... well, I hope You don't throw your words into wind, eros
Just like all of You, I've had better betting days, as well as the worse... nothing new, nothing special.. but I really thought this wouldn't happen in this forum, as I've read it for many years before posting.. I know it's nothing to do with most forums members and owners, which probably know how it is for themselves.. nevertheless, it touched me, so I thought I better write it down here, and maybe make 'eros' think it over again, as it's not about me, but about anyone writing here... anyone can be attacked mentally by him... and he'd still be considered a cool guy.. well, he's not for me.. 
I probably will still write here, as he's not anyone I respect much, now.. but I just wanted You to know - EROS is the tipster bashier!.. I think it should be known!
Respect for all the rest! F**** you, eros!

The more and more I think about Leo Mayer, the more I like his chances... last year he even beat Kevin Anderson in London, and that tells a lot about his abilities on grass... Big server, somewhat similar in play to Lajovic, who was defeated by Hurkacz in 1st round, but with a lot better results on this surface, better serve, more powerful player... and about match Hurkacz-Lajovic.. after 2nd set, won by Lajovic, I thought the match is going my way.. the way they played, the way Lajovic came to break points and his calm, even when not converting, everything pointed in my eyes that the match is on Lajovic's racquet.. that time it didn't happen, but I strongly believe in Leo Mayer taking his chances, today. Leo Mayer @2,85 uni is my call with confidence.

The third Grand Slam of the season is here and the one thing that I have to say straight away is that I would be shocked to see Nadal take it. He was pretty crap during the exhibitions, he's been handed a tough draw, and his health is always an issue during these short turnovers, so I think that he isn't going to lift the trophy. Not a big prediction, I know, but there you go. You know my form going into this tournament, but I was asked to write a preview and that's always a good motivation for some research, so yeah.
On the men's side of things, I find it really hard to see past either Djokovic or Federer, as it simply seems that the rest of the competition has fallen away in recent times and that there aren't any serious challengers. Someone with a big serve and good hitting can take them out, of course, that's just the nature of grass courts, but I don't know who's it gonna be and I don't really have all that much to add in terms of outrights. Betting-wise, I'm going to back Wawrinka to go further than Isner, as they have fairly similar draws in terms of difficulty and as Isner has been out of the game for so long that he's way more likely to suffer an upset somewhere along the way.
The women's side of things is completely open despite the obvious dominance of Ashleigh Barty. The pressure is going to be heavier than ever before, however, so I'm not too keen on backing her at what really are short odds for such a long tournament in which anything can happen. The only thing that I'm taking is Halep to go further than Konta, I just don't trust the latter at all at the moment. I will be watching things closely and I might play something mid-tournament, but I just don't see anything straight away. And yeah - don't back Kvitova, she might not even turn up for health reasons (there should be a press conference about that tomorrow as far as I know).
In terms of match betting, I am going for way too much and I'm actually surprised that things have turned out that way, as I didn't really see all that much when I first got around to check the early odds. Hoping for a good run, but my confidence is obviously quite low at the moment and I guess that I would just sigh if all the below lose.
First, I'm backing Rebecca Peterson to beat Yanina Wickmayer, as I think that she's a level above her quality-wise. The good qualifying run Wickmayer had doesn't change a thing considering the level of players she faced there and I think that she simply isn't good enough to compete on the main level anymore. Something similar can then be said about CSN, who'll be facing the resurgent Stosur that was surprisingly good in recent days. 
Eugenie Bouchard is spending way too much time modeling these days and her two recent matches were truly awful, so I'm taking the much-more-hard-working Zidansek there. Only a big trip down the memory lane can win this for Bouchard and that isn't all that likely to happen (although it can't be ruled out completely). Martic, Alexandrova, and Hercog are then my form picks over Brady, Siniakova, and Kuzmova.
In the men's section, I like both Garin and Schwartzman despite their obvious clay court preferences. They are both facing out-of-form opponents that have very little to offer by the looks of things nowadays. Fritz should also be able to deal with Berdych, who has been out of the game for quite some time and who didn't impress during the exhibitions, while Sonego should beat Granollers as well if he recovers from Antalya, which he honestly should with at least a day off. Finally, I'm also going for one long odds on Klizan against Chardy, as I don't think that he deserves to be a 4.00 shot in a match that could be easily decided by who's going to be missing less on the day.
Good luck everyone - and take care!
Back Stanislas Wawrinka (vs. Isner) at 1.72 with Bet365
Back Simona Halep (vs. Konta) at 1.72 with Bet365
Back Rebecca Peterson to beat Yanina Wickmayer at 1.67 with William Hill
Back Samantha Stosur to beat Carla Suarez-Navarro at 1.79 with Pinnacle
Back Tamara Zidansek (-2.5) to beat Eugenie Bouchard at 1.91 with Pinnacle
Back Petra Martic (-3.5) to beat Jennifer Brady at 1.84 with Pinnacle
Back Ekaterina Alexandrova to beat Katerina Siniakova at 1.73 with William Hill
Back Polona Hercog to beat Viktoria Kuzmova at 1.96 with Unibet
Back Diego Schwartzman (-1.5 sets) to beat Matthew Ebden at 2.10 with Sbobet
Back Taylor Fritz to beat Tomas Berdych at 1.66 with Bet365
Back Christian Garin (-1.5 sets) to beat Andrey Rublev at 2.00 with Unibet
Back Martin Klizan to beat Jeremy Chardy at 3.91 with Pinnacle
Back Lorenzo Sonego to beat Marcel Granollers at 1.77 with Pinnacle

Quite looking forward to this. Very much a different kind of event. Gets started 24th June. Pairings from each country :
Group A :
China A - Ding / Bingtao
Thailand - Un-Nooh / Saengkham
Poland - Stefanow / Filipiak
Austria - Ploner / Nuessle
Norway - Maflin / Watts
Germany - Lichtenberg / Kleckers
Group B :
N.Ireland - Allen / J.Brown
England - K.Wilson / Lisowski
Iran - Vafaei / Vahedi
R.O.I - Doherty / O'Brien
Hong Kong - A.Lee / Kai Cheung
S.Arabia - Alajani / Asseri

Group C :
Scotland - Higgins / Maguire
Belgium - Brecel / Mertens
Malaysia - Thor Leong / Hoo
Israel - Sharav / Ruberg
UAE - Shehab / Al Joaker
Cyprus - Georgiou / Poullos
Group D :
Wales - Williams / Day
China B - Yuelong / Wenbo
Switzerland - Ursenbacher / Vetter
Malta - Borg / Cini
Australia - Mifsud / Thormerson
India - Jain / Vatnani
Example of a tie (Wales Vs China B) -
Williams Vs Yuelong
Day Vs Wenbo
Doubles
Williams Vs Wenbo
Yuelong Vs Day
Top 2 of each group go through to the final 8.

If anyone saw how Jeremy Chardy played the first few points against Cam Norrie you shouldn't back him to come back in the set or the match because it's likely to continue. When Jeremy has started his rott the rott is likely to continue for the rest of the match. The guy is having trouble turning performances around and he's also lost to Cam once before on hard last season in Atlanta and his record isn't anything special in Eastbourne. Last time 2017 he went out in first round to Dusan Lajovic, he did reach the quarter once after beating dr. Ivo and a clay courter but lost the quarter in straights to Feli Lopez. Cam Norrie is exactly the type of player Jeremy doesn't matchup well with because of Cams reasonably big serve and good movement on court. Added that Jeremy is making tons of unforced doesn't make it any better.

Cameron Norrie to beat Jeremy Chardy at 3.00 with Betfair
I don't see where these odds come from. I wouldn't back Jeremy as such a big favourite as he has been playing crap all season.

Well, those odds certainly dropped quickly . In fact, I'm cashing out on Uchiyama at 2.00 elsewhere for a quick dirty profit. Needed something like that honestly.

Diego Schwartzman to beat Marin Cilic at 5.00 with Betfair
I like how Diego has played on the grass when he met Sascha Bublik and I think he could trouble Marin big time.

Nottingham
Paul Jubb @4.82 Pinnacle 4/10
I think there is a solid chance that we can see some grass court tennis early today in Nottingham as i think it shouldn't rain till 1 or 2 pm and matches starting early today at 10:30am. So this is good chance for Jubb after beating Zopp to gain another good win. He has the grass experience as he played good match vs. Ward last week and he has played indoor vs. Zopp so in my opinion doesn't matter if it's played outdoors or indoors, i am going with the young brit who is a very decent prospect. He only had short junior career because he decided to go the college path int he US and he's playing for South Carolina. He won the NCAA singles title in 2019 which is a great deal. Novak coming straight from clay court tournament in Poznan last week. I don't think he had many chances to hit on grass considering the fact he arrived in the UK last week Friday or Saturday, then weather got worse and it is basically raining for days now. Jubb should be better prepared for the grass here. Hopefully match will get started and finished outdoors.

My value radar shows the same signal - but i'm still thinking about it

Nicolas Mahut to beat Leonardo Mayer at 3.95 with 888sport
The man is on a mission and he had 2-0 on Marco Cecchinato and 1-0 on Philipp Kohlschreiber and he's got 2-0 in this matchup and both times in straight sets and once on clay. I like home players on a mission so Nicolas to win this for me.

Not a problem at all, i respect the community so i hope that everyone contributes to everybody's success. So this is the system based on statistics and Artificial Intelligence. The reason i'm posting my forecasts here, not in glory hunters is that i'm always glad to hear expert's opinion, at this point both AI and expert's opinion is more effective than just AI.

Pouille to beat Hurkacz at 2.29 with Pinnacle
Pouille is a player who either drops off in the first round or goes far in the tournament. A few days ago he won Bordeaux challenger and now continued his winning streak by defeating Borna  Coric yesterday. Hurkacz is also in good run after winning 3 matches in Madrid but I do not think he should be a favorite here. There is some value for Pouille’s win in my eyes.

Braga Challenger
Fred Gil @3.25 Pinnacle 4/10
Fading Cuevas after losing 06 06 is not bad move imo, i don't rate him anyway. Cuevas won 8/33 service points vs. Ehrat in Savannah a couple of days ago. He didn't do much on the Ehrat serve aswell. It was an awful performance. Not sure if he's injured again or he just had a bad day in the office, doesn't matter at all, he's playing a decent local player in Fred Gil who is former Top 70 player and had some good results over the last years at those bigger tournaments in Portugal. He has very good ballstriking abilities, hits the ball clean and flat but lacking consistency, can implode from nowhere, but i hope it won't today.