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Fader

Riga Masters (Including Qualifications)

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Qualifications get underway in the morning for this. I will have a look at the outright markets on this after the quallies I think as it's very unlikely any of these are going to end up winning the event so it's not like we'll miss a big price.

10am matches :
4 matches at 10am and the one I like is Anthony McGill. He faces Yan Bingtao. Bingtao is looking like a player whom you could potentially stick in the "overrated" corner. He has had a very "up & down" year. He got to the last 32 of the Grand Prix and then was knocked out by Ursenbacher in the 1st round of the Welsh Open (a player who was fighting for his tour card only last week)

He got beat 4-0 by Lu Ning going out of the Indian Open and then at the China Open, which is an event you would expect him to perform at, he went out to Peter Ebdon in Round 2.

He faces Anthony McGill, who had a good World Championship and got to the last 32 (beaten 10-7 by Ding) prior to that he had got to the Last 16 of the China Open. So he is on more of an up-curve in his form. The stat I like most about this match though is the head-2-head. These two have played 4 times and McGill has won all 4. This includes a 4-0 whitewash in 2016 and a 6-2 win only last year, in Bingtao's home country.

I think you know where I'm going with this. 

1pm matches :
Ricky Walden goes off as a favourite against Si Jiahui and ofcourse he should. But he faces a real talented young Chinese player here. Crazy to think that he is not even 17 until next month. He really caught the eye in his scoring and results at Q-School. He scored quite a few centuries in the events and if Ricky isn't in the mood tomorrow then anything could happen.

4pm matches :
Mike Dunn faces Mitchell Mann at 4pm. Dunn has beaten Mann both times they have played eachother including only last year at the China Open. Mann hasn't looked a great player in his results on tour and although Dunn is abit of a journeyman he should be solid enough to win this one. 

7pm matches :
Of the matches in the final session I will take Jak Jones to beat Thor Leong. They have played once before and Jones won 4-3 at the Q-School event last year. Since the he had some decent results beating the likes of Dott, Stevens & Walden and I think he has the edge over Thor.

5pts A.McGill to beat Y.Bingtao 11/10 Ladbrokes
2.5pts Si Jiahui to beat R.Walden 12/5 Betfred
5.5pts M.Dunn to beat M.Mann 8/11 Ladbrokes
5pts J.Jones to beat T.Leong 4/5 Ladbrokes

 

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2 out of 4 today. I will let off the 16yr old but McGill was cr*p. small profit. Looking at Day 2 tomorrow..

4pm matches :
I'm going to take Mark Joyce to beat Baird. Joyce has beaten Baird 2 times in a row including here at the Riga Masters 2 years ago,

7pm matches :
Steadman takes on Dom Dale A player he beat not long ago in the China Open 6-5. Steadman is a good solid scorer and he got a century and 5 50+ in those 6 frames. I'll take him to get the double here.

5pts M.Joyce to beat S.Baird 6/5 bet365
5pts C.Steadman to beat D.Dale 4/5 bet365

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2/2. better day

10am matches :
Elliot Slessor takes on Daniel Wells. 3 out of the 4 won by Slessor including the last 2 in a row. I'm not too sure why Slessor is the underdog. So I'll take Slessor. Also at 10am I quite the look of John Astley to beat Gerard Greene. 

1pm matches  :
Joe O'Connor takes on Peter Ebdon at 1pm and I'll take a chance on O'Connor. He has had a good bit of form since breaking through. I'll also take Shane Castle as a big underdog to peter Oliver Lines. H2H is 1 each, but Castle looked good at Q-School so the price is good value

5pts E.Slessor to beat D.Wells 11/10 Ladbrokes
4pts J.Astley to beat G.Greene evens Ladbrokes
5pts J.O'Connor to beat P.Ebdon 6/5 coral
2pts S.Castle to beat O.Lines 5/2 William Hill

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not the best. 1/4 but just a small loss. Looking at the final day of the qualifiers tomorrow

1pm matches :
I'll take Lu Ning to beat Martin O'Donnell. never played a head to head but I think Ning is playing the better snooker. He will be disappointed to lose to Donaldson in the world championship but it's all experience for him. He isn't a young player and i think that helps with his composure. I think he will come out the winner here. He has the better form. 

6pts L.Ning to beat M.O'Donnell 5/6 betway 

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4pm matches :

I've been reading today that Murphy has been practicing less in snooker and bizarrely he's looking to compete at golf. That can't bode well for his snooker. There is no way he has been practicing as much as he should be. His form has already taken a massive hit over the last year. He performed to a better standard in the worlds but the Riga Masters would not be something important for Murphy and Anda represents value here. Small punt at the handicap also.


4pts Z.Anda to beat S.Murphy 7/4 ladbrokes
1.5pts Z.Anda (-1.5 frames) to beat S.Murphy 10/3 bet365 

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3 hours ago, notanotherdonkey said:

Yes Murphy is off scratch at golf and is trying to qualify for the open at Royal Portrush next month

One to lay this season I think. Anda really could have won by more going 2-0 up but glad he got a win atleast.

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This continues tomorrow and I'm just taking a look at the outright prices. This event looks all about the favourite, Neil Robertson. I can't see anybody but him winning it, but I also can't be taking nearly 3/1 for him to win so many matches. Looking further afield Mark Williams normally does well, but again 7/1 kind of range for a player who is bang out of form really doesn't appeal, despite his form in this event.

I'm going to take a punt on Lisowski. He got to the final of this event last year and he has a nice draw until the latter stages. He would stay away from Robertson until a potential final (which was ironically the final last year) and he is a good price. I'll also take a couple of big outsiders at a big price. Tiny stakes on Kurt Maflin and Lu Ning. Both have good drawers and I think they can go well here.

2pts E/W J.Lisowski to win Riga Masters 14/1 betvictor
0.5pts E/W S.Craigie to win Riga Masters 40/1 ladbrokes
0.25pts E/W K.Maflin to win Riga Masters 125/1 boylesports
0.25pts E/W L.Ning to win Riga Masters 150/1 betfred

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Xiwen is hitting the ball nicely at the moment and beat Paul Davison (who would have been far more ready to play after qualifying at cue-school) 4-0 and scored 3 50+ and a ton in them 4 frames. This price being close to evens is most likely because of Bingyu's performance in the 6-2 beating of Georgiou, but Georgiou can be very erractic in his play.

6pts M.Xiwen to beat C.Bingyu 5/6 betfair
 

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Well Robertson didn't make it out there so this event is nicely wide-open now. Craigie was 3-1 up and lose 4-3 to Selt. (Very annoying) and Lu Ning also lost to Selt, so Selt is not in my good books. Luckily, Lisowski and Maflin are both into the final 16 and both play for a Quarter-final spot over the next couple of hours. Unfortunetly their both in the same half, which includes Mark Selby but both have winnable matches against Mark Joyce and Un-Nooh.

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Maflin makes the Quarter-final but Lisowski somehow loses to Mark bloody Joyce. Joyce got some luck in that final frame though. Ugh, awful result to lose to Joyce. Maflin has Honghao for a place in the semi-final. 

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On 7/25/2019 at 3:16 PM, Fader said:

This continues tomorrow and I'm just taking a look at the outright prices. This event looks all about the favourite, Neil Robertson. I can't see anybody but him winning it, but I also can't be taking nearly 3/1 for him to win so many matches. Looking further afield Mark Williams normally does well, but again 7/1 kind of range for a player who is bang out of form really doesn't appeal, despite his form in this event.

I'm going to take a punt on Lisowski. He got to the final of this event last year and he has a nice draw until the latter stages. He would stay away from Robertson until a potential final (which was ironically the final last year) and he is a good price. I'll also take a couple of big outsiders at a big price. Tiny stakes on Kurt Maflin and Lu Ning. Both have good drawers and I think they can go well here.

2pts E/W J.Lisowski to win Riga Masters 14/1 betvictor
0.5pts E/W S.Craigie to win Riga Masters 40/1 ladbrokes
0.25pts E/W K.Maflin to win Riga Masters 125/1 boylesports
0.25pts E/W L.Ning to win Riga Masters 150/1 betfred

Oh man, Maflin 125/1 makes the semi-final and loses to Mark Joyce just like Lisowski. What in the world. So close.

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