ElPrincipito007

Julia Gorges (2-0) to beat Vera Zvonareva at 1.95 with William Hill
My last bet for tomorrow is another 2-0. Gorges Is playing very well recently. She disappointed me in the AO losing against Danielle Collins (6-2, 6-7, 4-6), who surprisingly reached the semifinals, but won in Auckland (beating there Larsson, Barthel, Bouchard, Kuzmova and Andreescu) and Luxembourg. Her style fits perfectly in this kind of courts where the balls go fast (she’s a big hitting player with one of the best serves in the WTA). He defends semifinals from the last year where she finally lost in a 3 set match against the winner of the tournament: Kvitova. She won her first match here in straight sets against Maria Sakkari. Zvonariova will have the favour of the crowd but she’s not getting good results. She won in the first round here in straight sets against Makarova, who is out of form (6 losing streak). Before that she lost in straight sets against Astra Sharma in the first match of the qualy in the AO (3-6, 2-6).

Beautiful,,,,but a roller coaster of emotions!

Well maybe is a 55-45 for Djokovic considering that he leads the h2h, has 6 titles here and the fact that Nole had tougher opponents than Rafa

This Wednesday starts the German Masters. This ranking event was won by Mark Williams last year beating Dott rather impressively in the final 9-1. The draw has been made already and here is the 1st round line-up. No Ronnie O'Sullivan helps the betting, but we have some big names hitting some good form such as Judd Trump and Mark Selby.
Round 1
M.Williams Vs Z.Yuelong
S.Baird Vs J.Perry
P.Ebdon Vs S.Murphy
R.McLeod Vs K.Wilson
B.Hawkins Vs R.Milkins
S.Maguire Vs M.Georgiou
Y.Bingtao Vs M.Stevens
L.Hang Vs J.Trump
J.Higgins Vs Y.Sijun
J.Lisowski Vs D.Jones
X.Guodong Vs R.Day
F O'Brien Vs D.Junhui
N.Robertson Vs K.Maflin
S.Bingham Vs J.Robertson
D.Gilbert Vs B.Woolaston
R.Walden Vs M.Selby
Trump and Selby both look standout (and separated) however their prices don't interest me. I don't like betting on players who have just won an event and with Trump winning the UK Masters and also previously winning Group 3 of the Champs League, I think despite his form at 4/1 I will avoid him. Selby has won this event before, but since then hasn't got past round 2 in the 3 following attempts so, despite his decent recent form, I will leave him alone. Mark Williams, defending champion here, I'm also ignoring. 10/1 is too small for me.
I will take 3 picks, two from the top half and one from the bottom. Barry Hawkins goes into this event with a bit of form. He got to the quarter-finals of the UK Masters but since then has also been doing a lot of match-time at the Champions League which inspires this bet really. He got to the final of Group 3, the semi-final of Group 4, final of Group 5 and then the final of Group 6 so it shows he is hitting the ball well. Perhaps shows he isn't getting over the line, but he's putting himself into the right positions. He would have Milkins & Maguire and then Trump/Murphy/Williams to get into a final. 
Next, I will take Robertson in the bottom half. He is another who has improved his form winning the Riga Masters in 2018, getting to a final out in China and also winning Group of the Champions League. He got to the Semi-Finals of the UK Masters losing 6-4 to eventual champ Trump. I fancy him to do well in Germany. He would have a decent path to the final, Maflin, Bingham, Selby (won the last 2), Lisowski (Has a good record against Lisowski) and then a final. 14s seems good value.
I will also throw a 1pt bet on Murphy. Ever since he quit Twitter in December, he has slowly progressed. Maybe he has lost the demons a little. I hope for him to go deep here.
2pts B.Hawkins to win the German Masters 16/1 Bet365
2pts N.Robertson to win the German Masters 14/1 Betfred
1pt S.Murphy to win the German Masters 20/1 Betfred
Your thoughts?
@notanotherdonkey @BetPredictor @mcsilks @ElPrincipito007 @Striker @harry_rag @Sir Puntalot @Bronxie

Strange odd movement, easy win.

Early bet: Hsieh @2,02 (Marathonbet)
The bookies really don't know who is the favourite in this one. The odds are changing a lot now. For me, Hsieh is the better player of the two. A win against Azarenka in the first round doesn't change my opinion on that.

Early bet: Hsieh @2,02 (Marathonbet)
The bookies really don't know who is the favourite in this one. The odds are changing a lot now. For me, Hsieh is the better player of the two. A win against Azarenka in the first round doesn't change my opinion on that.

I will be quickly.
Sam Querrey vs Pierre-Hugues Herbert Over 3.5 Sets at 1.54 with 888
I think Sam is a little overrated here. Both players have a good serve, I expect a long match here.
Jeremy Chardy (-1,5 Sets) to beat Ugo Humbert at 2.02 with 888
Chardy did semifinal in Brisbane, beating Struff, Kyrgios, Uchiyama and finally lost against the winner of the tournament, Nishikori. Ugo looks good but he has no experience at this level.
Kei Nishikori (-2,5 Sets) + Naomi Osaka at 1.74 with 888
Nothing much to say here. Kei won in Brisbane. He’s playing well and he’s better than his opponent, by far. Osaka should win this comfortably too.
Destanee Aiava (+5,5 Games) to beat Madison Keys at 1.79 with 888
I expect a close match here, Aiava is only 18 years but she’s a big hitter with a brilliant future. Madison has not played any match since November, I expect Aiava to put some resistence here.
Simona Halep (-1,5 Sets) to beat Kaia Kanepi at 1.97 with 888
I know the risks of this one but Halep is the number 1 and Kaia has not played any match since the US Open. Halep had some back problems but she has played some matches recently at least.
Bianca Andreescu (-1,5 Sets) to beat Whitney Osuigwe at 1,74 with 888
2 players with a brilliant future but Andreescu now is in another level. She won against Kucova (6-0, 6-2), Jaime Fourlis (7-5, 6-1), Siegemund (3-6, 6-3, 6-3), Babos (6-4, 7-6), Wozniacki (6-4, 6-4), Venus Williams (6-7, 6-1, 6-3), Su Wei Hsieh (6-3, 6-3) and lost in the Final against Goerges in a 3 set match in Auckland.
Venus Williams (-1,5 Sets) to beat Mihaela Buzarnescu at 2.30 with 888
Buzarnescu has recently returned from an injury and she’s not getting good results so I expect a win by Venus in 2 sets. The last time Buzarnescu won a match was in August in the Canadian Masters (against Qiang Wang). Since then, she has lost against Svitolina, Sasnovich, Sasnovich again, Mandy Minella, Lesia Tsurenko and Bencic so she’s in a 6 losing streak.
I EDIT THIS POST TO ADD ANOTHER BET
Andreas Seppi to beat Jordan Thompson at 1.73 with William Hill
Seppi did so well in Sydney. He won against Chardy, Klizan, Tsitsipas and Schwartzman. He lost in the final against De Miñaur in a very close match (5-7, 6-7). In the first round has defeat Steve Johnson (6-4, 4-6, 6-4, 6-3). Jordan Thompson is doing well but he has no experience at this level. He was lucky to face Feli, who is almost retired and didn’t had played any match since October.

Milos Raonic to beat Nick Kyrgios at 1.80 with Pinnacle
Kyrgios is being hyped up for no reason here imo, his first appearances in 2019 were really poor, while Raonic was showing glimpses of good form. Against Harrison, Kyrgios won through serve alone and then lost easily against Chardy once his big serves stopped working.

To everyone: The deciding tiebreak at the AO in the fifth set at 6-6 will be played to 10. New rule.

Canberra challenger Qualifications
Fancutt T.- Benchetrit E. bet: 1 @5,59 (Pinnacle)/ stake 6/10
I am quite surprised with odds here- maybe Thomas Fancutt is not the guy who is capable to beat top players (or even top 200) but with Elliot Benchetrit he should have bigger chances then odds suggest us. Mainly because he is local guy and all life spent on those kind of hard courts. Benchetrit completly opposite- he used to be a very solid and no doubt talented junior but he spent all career playing/practicing on clay grounds, rarery on hard surfaces. He started current season in Noumea and proved that he is just average on those fast courts. Generally he beated there Escoffier and Robredo, but hard to say it was something special: Escoffier lost his server 7 times and had 13 double points which is absolutely strange, on other side Benchetrit lost then his serve 5 times what is also a lot. In second round it looked better but his opponent was Tommy Robredo, 36 years old veteran who actually never was strong on hard courts. Finally in 3rd round he was eliminated by Delbonis (who next round was outplayed by Mikael Ymer)- lost 6:3 6:2 in very bad style: just 3 aces comparing to 6 double faults, lost his serve 4 times. On other side Tomas Fancutt already played here in Canberra one match- in first round of qualification he beated very comfortably Zihao Xia 6:3 6:2, looked there really solid, especially on serve so I think he is able to repeat it tonight and do a possible surprise.

Nikoloz Basilashvili to beat (+1.5 sets) Novak Djokovic at 3.67 with Pinnacle
Nole won their only encounter so far in straight sets in Rome last season but Niko has been on an upwards trend ever since and I can see him snatching a set here just like Marton did last match.

WTA Auckland qualif.
Valentina Ivanov @ 3.28 Pinnacle 3/10
This should be a good and competitive matchup. Ivanov and Hourigan met two weeks ago at the New Zealand national championship tournament and Ivanov won 36 64 75 in the end. I do not expect an exact repeat of the match but i think odds are still looking good although there was already a huge drop on Ivanov here.

Following on from last post (both winners!), I think Devon Petersen is an underdog with a bit of bite tonight - Ian White is a great player when on song but often goes missing on the big stage + can have double trouble. I like Devon and even though he didn't play particularly well in edging out Wayne Jones I think he can have a good go at this.
Petersen +1.5 sets 7/4 bet365 *win*

Couple of things I like in the next couple of days...
Toni Alcinas +2.5 sets vs Peter Wright - Evens bet365 *win*
Toni's a very solid tour player and Wright hasn't looked worthy of his #3 seeding throughout this year. Even money on Alcinas to take a set seems very reasonable.
Alcinas takes set 1 with a lovely 107 happy days
Luke Humphries to beat Stephen Bunting 2/1 bet365 *win*
Humphries looked good in dispatching of Adam Hunt and Bunting has had a poor 2018 and looks very vulnerable. Certainly wouldn't have Humphries a 2/1 dog here, more like 5/4.
Outrights - Wadey 40/1 ew, Gerwyn Price 33/1 ew

Regardless of what happens today, I almost certainly won't be betting anymore in this season, with my traditional yearly summary coming on Monday/Tuesday.

@eros it's not customary to like people's post, and then unlike the button after the pick loses.  Also: This is not a competition here, even though some of us may be competitive people. We are all working together to find good investment solutions. This is why I'm here, and I hope that you are here for the same thing. Perhaps, you can cooperate with some of your own information soon enough. There is a good chance you might be able to help us out if you study some specific players, and watch the matches.  Most people probably don't mind if you make losing or winning picks.  Each person must make the decision to bet on their own, and not blame others for tips they followed.  Good luck amigo ! 

22-28 +26.16 units
ATP Finals
Kevin Anderson to beat Kei Nishikori @ 2.33 with Pinnacle
Dominic Thiem to beat Roger Federer @ 3.5 with Pinnacle
Kobe CH
Shinji Hazawa to beat Andrew Harris @ 4.25 with Pinnacle
I think that Hazawa is good on the ground, and he will be more consistent than harris. Hazawa has wins over top 200 opponents already. This is probably a risky bet, but I felt there was a decent chance and it covers all the action on the card if top plays fall through. 
 
 

A short resume of the night / morning:
Sekiguchi lost clearly vs. Samper-Montana. This was a huge blow, i think it's time to lay Sekiguchi in the future vs clear underdogs if there is a chance. This was clearly a sign he is declining. The second set was more than awful.
Hiltzik won as expected, was more clutch and very pumped in the important scens of the match.
Ehara was only a small bet as i had some minor doubts about the power he can bring on fast courts and it was like that, he lost to the more powerful player with better serve and groundstrokes.
Still a small plus for the three bets. Won't make a mistake again like Sekiguchi and Ehara. 
Total bets: 32
Won: 18
Void: 0
Lost: 14
Staked: 97 Units
Back: 213.14 Units
Balance: +116.14 Units
Yield: 120%
 
 
 

Challenger Houston
Marcos Giron vs. Ivo Karlovic 
=> Marcos Giron @ 2.65 Pinnacle stake: 3/10
I am quite surprised about the fact Karlovic is playing in Houston on outdoor hardcourt at cold and cloudy temperatures instead of playing the indoor challenger in Champaign this week. Furthermore the conditions are tough in Houston especially for players who are relying on their serve as the wind will blow strong about ~ 30 km/h. This could be a problem for Karlovic with his serve and slice tactics, i do not see him being in comfortable conditions like he was in Monterrey a couple of weeks ago.
Giron is a good and solid player, some of you will say he is too averagish without weapons and so on but i like him and i am following his career for years now since he finished his college career at UCLA. He is a good baseline player creating angles and using variety, i think he might not have the biggest weapon but he has consistency and he knows how to let the opponent run and i think this could be a factor today.
Both met two weeks ago in Charlottesville on indoor hard and Karlovic won 7-6 6-3 with only one break in the whole match i think today we will see a different outcome as the conditions will favor Giron a bit more and i think Karlovic is vulnerable today.

Elina Svitolina to beat Aryna Sabalenka at 1.91 with William Hill
Going with Svitolina in this one. I know Sabalenka has improved a lot, she played absolutely well in Cincinnati and Connecticut but i think that bookies now are overrating her a little bit. In Québec she lost in the first round against Lepchenko in straight sets and we can't forget that Sabalenka has only 20 years old. The hard court season of Svitolina is not been excellent but she won at least 2 matches in every tournament she has played so is not being bad either. Sabalenka plays an ultra-agressive tennis so if she's not accurate use to make a lot of unforced errors. I think Svitolina is the kind of player who can frustrate Sabalenka, forcing her to hit the ball in bad positions and making her to commit a lot of UE.

RSC Anderlecht tb. Trnava at 1.75 Marathonbet
I think the gap in quality between those two teams is too big. Anderlecht have 1 point out of their last 3 matches, but their performance at Genk (best team of the league this moment) was okay. They missed 2 huge chances in the 2nd half. They will try to attack but still are vulnerable at the back where they had quite some missings the last weeks. About Spartak Trnava I can't say a lot, but if I take a look at their players, I think Anderlecht can only be satisfied with a win here. Also over 2.5 has to be considered.
About the other Belgian teams I can say that the odds are quite right as I expect a win from Genk and a loss from Standard. I don't know if Malmö is an attacking team, but if they are this match can quite easy go over 2.5 goals.

Hibernian v Molde.
It's Easter Road for goals!
You have to go back to 30/3/18 for the last competitive Hibs home game to have less than 3 goals scored, in the 7 games since then there has been a staggering 40 goals scored, we seem to play with the attitude of 'score if you want, we'll score more'.
Molde are no slouches in front of goal either and this has the makings of yet another entertaining goal fest at Easter Road.
Over 2.5 goals @ 2.08 looks way overpriced.

Rudolf Molleker to beat Joao Domingues at 2.35 with Unibet
Rudolf is the new german next gen star after stunning the field by winning Heilbronn challenger before Roland Garros. Now he's facing Joao who is nothing special in challenger Liberec, Joao has lost 3 of his last 4 matches to Matteo Viola, Gleb Sakharov and Lukas Rosol so that's enough for me to say Rudolf will not be an easier match. When Molleker played in Hamburg last year and beat Leo Mayer in qualies, he was No. 923 in the ATP Rankings. Now, he was at a career-best No. 271, and thanks to his victory against David Ferrer, has continued to rise this Monday to No. 251 and he will likely keep on rising and this match should just be another stop on the way. I'll be very surprised if he loses this.

Nikoloz Basilashvili to beat Pablo Cuevas at 3.22 with Marathonbet
Pretty drastic odds given that Basilashvili has already won three matches against decent opposition in this tournament. Cuevas has always been the better clay court player of the two and everything, but his form has been VERY shaky in recent times and I just don't believe that he can be trusted as a big favorite against players that can actually play, which Basilashvili can. In terms of value, there's only one play to make here and I prefer the outright win over the handicap lines (if Basilashvili loses, chances are that it's going to be by a big margin, he's often that kind of a guy).
Vaclav Safranek to beat Rogerio Dutra Silva at 4.97 with Pinnacle
Odds odds odds. Dutra Silva has many of these odd losses against worse players and Safranek will have the home conditions on his side here, so 5.00?