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Tennis Tips - November 12 - November 18

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Challenger Kobe

Jordi Samper-Montana vs. Shuichi Sekiguchi

=> Shuichi Sekiguchi @ 1.862 Pinnacle stake: 4/10

Samper-Montana is 28 years old and has a 0-3 record on indoor courts losing to players like Diez or Ilhan both not famous for their strong indoor records. This guy has no business on being a fav vs a local home player like Sekiguchi who has a solid record at those japanese indoor tournaments on indoor hard or even carpet. Odds already dropped a bit but still good enough to take!! Confidence is much higher here than my stake, probably 7 or 8 out of 10.

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Challenger Champaign

Jeffrey John Wolf vs. Jared Hiltzik 

=> Jared Hiltzik @ 2.51 Sbobet stake: 4/10

Always liked to bet on Jared Hiltzik in Illinois, especially Champaign. Made some good profit in the past as Jared is a University of Illinois Alum and was born in Wilmette so this is more than a home tournament for him, some kind of a special thing. He had some really good results in the past in Champaign for example beating names like Krueger, Bhambri and having tight matches with Kudla, McDonald or Laaksonen. Wolf is a decent prospect, i think he might can break through next year but he is just turning pro and despite having some good results i think Hiltzik has a pretty good chance to reach the second round in Champaign for the third time in a row.

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Alexander Zverev to beat Marin Cilic at 1.88 with Pinnacle

The same reasoning as with the Thiem-Anderson match, Zverev has just been better in recent weeks. I reckon that it's possible to say that Cilic managed to play well in Paris, but Zverev was good there as well and the dominant H2H isn't without its reasons.

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21-27 +25.36 units (nishikori cashed @3/1 Ratio)

Hiltzik and Zverev both look like wins to me.  @Opole you inspired me to dig deeper into the lower ranked players.. so i'm working on that, and creating a file on potential profitable players; especially younger ones, and that win @ positive unitis. I have Hiltzik listed in that file, and not his opponent(who i am unfamiliar with.) gl gents

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Kei Nishikori to beat Kevin Anderson at 1.73 with William Hill

Not a lot of value here I guess, but Nishikori looked better than Anderson yesterday. Granted, Federer was not particularly impressive, but, at the same time, Nishikori has always had Anderson's number. It probably won't be easy, but Nishikori should be 1.57 here or so imo.

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Federer to beat thiem at 1.29

Nishikori to beat Anderson at 1.59

 

Backing up the favorites here, Thiem never plays good in this types of surfaces and Federer needs to win to make something in this tournament. Nishikori beated Anderson a couple weeks ago andthe result will probably be te same

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Challenger Kobe

Tung-Lin Wu vs. Hiroyasu Ehara 

=> Hiroyasu Ehara @ 3.90 Pinnacle stake: 1/10

Ehara already beat Wu this year on japanese soil at Yokohama Challenger. The other meeting was also relatively close. I expect another tight affair here although Wu looks like a solid prospect Ehara could be a bad matchup here as he knows how to play from the baseline and Wu is a bit off from time to time making a lot of errors. I can see some value here.

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22-28 +26.16 units

ATP Finals

Kevin Anderson to beat Kei Nishikori @ 2.33 with Pinnacle

Dominic Thiem to beat Roger Federer @ 3.5 with Pinnacle

Kobe CH

Shinji Hazawa to beat Andrew Harris @ 4.25 with Pinnacle

I think that Hazawa is good on the ground, and he will be more consistent than harris. Hazawa has wins over top 200 opponents already. This is probably a risky bet, but I felt there was a decent chance and it covers all the action on the card if top plays fall through. 

 

 

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Challenger Houston

Marcos Giron vs. Ivo Karlovic 

=> Marcos Giron @ 2.65 Pinnacle stake: 3/10

I am quite surprised about the fact Karlovic is playing in Houston on outdoor hardcourt at cold and cloudy temperatures instead of playing the indoor challenger in Champaign this week. Furthermore the conditions are tough in Houston especially for players who are relying on their serve as the wind will blow strong about ~ 30 km/h. This could be a problem for Karlovic with his serve and slice tactics, i do not see him being in comfortable conditions like he was in Monterrey a couple of weeks ago.

Giron is a good and solid player, some of you will say he is too averagish without weapons and so on but i like him and i am following his career for years now since he finished his college career at UCLA. He is a good baseline player creating angles and using variety, i think he might not have the biggest weapon but he has consistency and he knows how to let the opponent run and i think this could be a factor today.

Both met two weeks ago in Charlottesville on indoor hard and Karlovic won 7-6 6-3 with only one break in the whole match i think today we will see a different outcome as the conditions will favor Giron a bit more and i think Karlovic is vulnerable today.

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A short resume of the night / morning:

Sekiguchi lost clearly vs. Samper-Montana. This was a huge blow, i think it's time to lay Sekiguchi in the future vs clear underdogs if there is a chance. This was clearly a sign he is declining. The second set was more than awful.

Hiltzik won as expected, was more clutch and very pumped in the important scens of the match.

Ehara was only a small bet as i had some minor doubts about the power he can bring on fast courts and it was like that, he lost to the more powerful player with better serve and groundstrokes.

Still a small plus for the three bets. Won't make a mistake again like Sekiguchi and Ehara. 

Total bets: 32

Won: 18
Void: 0
Lost: 14

Staked: 97 Units

Back: 213.14 Units

Balance: +116.14 Units

Yield: 120%
 

 

 

Edited by opole

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Sportsbook: Pinnacle

CH 2 Buenos Aires

Bastian Malla to beat Guido Andreozzi @4.17

Mario Viella Martinez to beat Carlos Berlocq @4.19

CH Kobe

Giancarlo Oliveira to beat Watanuki @3.43

ATP finals

John Isner to beat Cilic @ 2.86 

Alexander Zverev to beat Djokovic @ 5.33 

I expect 2 our 5 matches to win, with possibility of free roll situations on remaining matches. We should pick up some dead money.  

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Updated Track: 24-29 +28.34 units(9 bets pending now including these two)

Bangoura + Anderson win, Hazawa lose

Book: Pinnacle

Jared Hiltzik to beat Tommy Paul @ 4.09

Takanyi Garanganga to beat John Patrick Smith @ 5.43

Paul has not been playing well .. losing first round in last two tournaments. I feel this is anybodies match. Also I don't trust Smith at these odds.. Garanganga might be coming back into form, and has sole win vs smith on hardcourts. i feel smith might be susceptible in this spot. 

 

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2 hours ago, money44 said:

Updated Track: 24-29 +28.34 units(9 bets pending now including these two)

Bangoura + Anderson win, Hazawa lose

Book: Pinnacle

Jared Hiltzik to beat Tommy Paul @ 4.09

Takanyi Garanganga to beat John Patrick Smith @ 5.43

Paul has not been playing well .. losing first round in last two tournaments. I feel this is anybodies match. Also I don't trust Smith at these odds.. Garanganga might be coming back into form, and has sole win vs smith on hardcourts. i feel smith might be susceptible in this spot. 

 

I wouldn't really say that Paul played badly before coming here. And it isn't correct that he lost in the first round in last 2 tournaments.

This month he won the Challenger in Charlottesville, beating the likes of Rubin, Karlovic, Klahn and Polansky, all with a much better ranking than him.

He then lost in the first round in Knoxville against Fratangelo, 90 places better ranked then him. And I would add that losing early in a tournament after winning the previous one the week earlier isn't so uncommon.

In the first round here in Champaign he went through Humbert, that is a top 100, with a quick 6-2 in the third set.

Hiltzik plays his "home tournament" and can be worth a low stake. But for sure not why Paul has not been playing well lately.

Good luck!

Edited by thinkpink63

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off to a quick start in Buenos Aires ticket with first pick winning at 4/1 , I am watching Bastian Malla match, and he looks decent. Not sure what his chances are because he has started slow in first set. Thiem lost, he looked terrible, and federer i thought looked average at best.  Probably the worst I have ever seen Thiem play, but he does tank matches here and there. This was no different. 

Actually when i say tank tho .. its not super accurate.. Thiem's physcial condition was battered and beaten down.. he didn't look prepared, and rogers years of fitness and strength training completely outclassed him.

Edited by money44

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