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CzechPunter

Tennis Tips - November 12 - November 18

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Bastian Malla (+4.5) to beat Dimitar Kuzmanov at 1.70 with Pinnacle

Jumping on the Malla and @money44 bandwagon here. That guy really is on fire and I especially liked his mental resilience in the previous rounds, as he was able to come back in sets two against guys that are arguably better than Kuzmanov.

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27-37 +28.37 units

Bastian Malla to beat Kuzmanov @ 2.83 pinnacle

Hiroki Moriya to beat Uchiyama @ 2.44 pinnacle

Hope to ride a good run, cash both of these. time for a huge comeback after the past couple days. I've seen Moriya's last match vs Oliveira. His technique was incredible at the net. I hope that his legs are ready, Because, if they are.. It's going to be a long day for for Uchiyama. I am a big fan of Moriya's ball striking. 

Edited by money44
unit correction

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Ryan Shane to beat Blaz Rola at 2.75 with Pinnacle

Bastian Malla is a good run and Ryan is on a great run himself and he will break the top 500 easily after challenger Champaign and this match he's got some nice chance to win also. After upsets of Marcel Granollers and J.P Smith I think his game will be enough for a win again. If he plays at the same level as before and with the same confidence he will beat Blaz.

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Guilherme Clezar to beat (-1.5 sets) Federico Coria at 2.63 with Paddypower

I think Guilherme has the better game of these two. They met once before in a challenger in Brazil 2016 and Guilherme retired after losing first set then. Could be two tight sets with Federico capable of stealing a set but I think Guilherme in two is worth the risk but it's defenitely a risky bet when I feel this could be a tight match. Guilherme is not that good that he is by far the better player here but I've seen him play and he's got some good groundstrokes and well capable of controling matches and win in two. Could even happen that Federico wins the match but Guilherme in two tight sets since he is the better player but not by mutch.

Pablo Andujar to beat (-1.5 sets) Pedja Krstin at 1.91 with Paddypower

Pablo is by far the better player of these two and I fully expect Pablo to roll over Pedja so not mutch to say here. Pablo in 2 easy sets and It would be the surprise of the day if Pedja steals a set here.

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Thoughts about Djokovic v Cilic tonight?

The game is an absolute dead rubber: Djokovic has already won the group and will meet Anderson tomorrow, while Cilic is out.

At stake there is only money and 200 ATP points.

Now..Djokovic will play the semi tomorrow against an opponent who had the advantage of a rest day while he will have to play in consecutive days.

As Nole pointed out in a press conference he still has some cold issues like in Paris, and, if Cilic cares a bit about this game, there's a chance that Nole could take a "day off" to spare energies. Could..

Cilic is @ 5.50 to win and @ 9.00 to win 2-0 on Bet365.

Maybe the pride of the Serbian player will show up tonight too, but for sure to win the ATP Finals is more important than to win this game.

Finally Cilic won 2-1 the Queen's final and lost in 3 both in Cincinnati and Paris against Nole.

Some low stake on the above mentioned bets could be worth a go.

Edited by thinkpink63

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Challenger Pune qualification

Abhinav Sanjeev Shanmugam vs. Rio Noguchi

I wrote some words about Shanmugam couple of days ago, he is quite talented and has a dangerous game with a huge serve and aggressie ground game. Like his style. Noguchi on the other side is quite the opposite, more a defensive counterpuncher with low power and weak serve, his weapon is consistency and angles. This could be enough but i trust Shanmugam as this is some kind of a home tournament in India and i expect a good performance.

Abhinav Sanjeev Shanmugam @ 2.90 Tipbet 3/10

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13 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Yeah, maybe at small stakes, but the quality gap really is big at the moment. I can see myself betting on Cilic in some form if he wins the first, otherwise no.

That was the key. Had Cilic won the first set,where he had a set-point in the tie-break, I doubt Nole was going to keep it to the third.

The second was all written to be quickly in favour of the first one's winner.

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Challenger Pune Qualification

N.Sriram Balaji vs. Benjamin Hassan 

Balaji is a very decent player and on my radar for a couple of years at those home tournaments in India. Had a couple of decent results there over the year. Last year he reached the second round in Pune. Today he beat Luke Saville in a tight three setter. Hassan is solid but i doubt he is the favorite here.

N.Sriram Balaji @ 2.75 William Hill 4/10

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Tatsuma Ito to beat Yosuke Watanuki at 2.60 with Pinnacle

I fully support Watanuki being the favorite and him winning would be good for Japanese tennis as well, but I see the match as a coin-flip objectively. Watanuki has very little experience with big matches and it's hard to say how well he's going to cope with the pressure, so the 2.60 that's on offer for Ito looks like value to me. Not a given, but value.

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11 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Tatsuma Ito to beat Yosuke Watanuki at 2.60 with Pinnacle

I fully support Watanuki being the favorite and him winning would be good for Japanese tennis as well, but I see the match as a coin-flip objectively. Watanuki has very little experience with big matches and it's hard to say how well he's going to cope with the pressure, so the 2.60 that's on offer for Ito looks like value to me. Not a given, but value.

CP , I wasn't on the forum much today.  I was on Ito also- just saw your post after the match finished.. Really a nerve wracking match even in the third set after he dumped the 3-0 lead, and went down multiple break points..  As to the Zverev match.. well Djokovic is playing amazing its true.. but I won't be surprised if Zverev sneaksa set either.. but i'm probably biased because I want him to win the match.. cya !

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Not much need to be said about young phenom and the bet placed. We are talking about a player who has won at these odds the last 3 matches, and has massive potential on the tour. We could surely see another surprise if Roy finds a way to attack the Klahn backhand, who has been playing well, but a couple mixed results losing easy straight sets to Paul recently, and some other straight set losses I saw. 

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Bradley Klahn to beat (-5.0) Roy Smith at 1.90 with Pinnacle

The week isn't finished yet. Two finals left but I skip the Houston WTA final. Roy Smith is playing at a pretty high level to be ranked 800+ and he's still only 20 but come on enough is enough. Bradley should win this easily.

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4 minutes ago, money44 said:

TY Four Leaf. I know to probably finish the year with this good result, but I have another match to be listed with very good odds worth a try

updated stats 28-37 +37.37 units

Roy Smith to beat Bradley Klahn @ 5.92 with Pinnacle

You get 8.60 for that pick on betfair - j4yi and gl.

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@four-leaf Klahn is playing good, but this Roy Smith is an incredible ball striker, and I don't remember Klahn winning a bunch of titles. Roy has a good crosscourt backhand, massive forehand and very good serve.. He can probably get to the Klahn backhand better than Koepfer or some of his previous opponents.  

I suggest hedging your Klahn minus 5 games bet on the Smith moneyline.. You only have to risk a fraction of the amount

Edited by money44

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And also I like the aspect of buying Smith at this price prematch for larger stakes, and then you can play the other side of Klahn if you think he's going to win the match at a better price in play.. and you could potentially win money if either player wins.

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