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CzechPunter

Tennis Tips - December 29 - January 6

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Germany to win the Hopman Cup @ 3.00 with SportingBet

Looking over the different teams, it is clear that Germany has by the far the strongest pair. Although this was also the case last year and Switzerland won, I feel that this year, the Germans will take it as Federer is clearly not as a strong a position as he was last year. Also both Zverev and Kerber seem quite motivated to win this, watching the introductory video.

 

Edited by South_African_Punter

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Germany to win Hopman cup at 3.25 with Pinnacle

I wont be betting on this myself with Pinnacle since I will get blocked from the site from January 1 2019 but it sure looks like Germany will win it this time. Angie Kerber and Sascha Zverev has the tools to make it happen. Sascha can beat everyone in the field and so can Angie.

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Exhibition Abu Dhabi

Serena Williams to beat Venus Williams at 1.55 with Redbet Paf 888sport Unibet

Serena clearly has the upperhand even in an Exhibition game in Abu Dhabi and I think she's the correct favourite here and based on how they both ended their respective seasons I think Serena should be the winner of this.

Dominic Thiem to beat Karen Khachanov at 2.10 with Redbet Paf 888sport Unibet

This is just based on their rankings and the quality Thiem showed in his last match in London when he beat Kei so easily. I think  he can stick with Karen here if he wants to and an exhibition game means that none of the players will take this too serious and I think that could work for Dominic since it wasn't too serious from Kei in that last round robin match in London. But this is more or less a toss up or 50/50 so 2.10 seems reasonable on Dominic.

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51 minutes ago, four-leaf said:

Germany to win Hopman cup at 3.25 with Pinnacle

I wont be betting on this myself with Pinnacle since I will get blocked from the site from January 1 2019 but it sure looks like Germany will win it this time. Angie Kerber and Sascha Zverev has the tools to make it happen. Sascha can beat everyone in the field and so can Angie.

Germanys odds are down to 3.05 on Pinnacle

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WTA Brisbane qualif.

Destanee Aiava @ 2.17 Pinnacle 4/10

Don't know what to think about Vania King. Obviously she struggled a lot with injuries during the last couple of years. She only played 15 matches in 2018 and 7 matches in 2017. She retired twice in 2018 during her matches and also gave a walkover once. It looks like her body isn't doing well at singles competition. I read a couple of interviews and she clearly said she is focusing on doubles in 2019 so i don't know how to rate her here. Aiava is a huge talent although she wasn't playing her best tennis during the 2018 season but she has a good history in Brisbane, in 2017 she won four matches there reaching the second round losing to Kuznetsova. We all forget about the fact she is still very young and just turned 18 this year. I really like her powerful game. She is a huge prospect and i expect her to start strong at the Australian summer as Aussies always playing really good there. 

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Dominic Thiem to beat (-1.5 sets) Karen Khachanov at 3.90 with Unibet Redbet 888sport

Going for the upset in 2 here, Dominic looked good in his last match in London and should be well prepared for this one. He's not better in any way on the Abu Dhabi surface and he lost in straight sets in Paris to Karen just two months ago. But that doesn't matter at all I think and I think it might be worth chancing on the upset in 2.

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Sb. watched the Abu Dhabi exo matches today and could give me / us a short info about how those four players looked? I haven't watched a second so far and i won't make any bets without watching it but maybe sb. can give a short impression of what happened? 

Rafa usually is a slow starter at those exos and Anderson is a tough matchup for him in the first match i assume.

Rafas results in the previous years:

60 64 Berdych

26 06 Murray

63 67 63 Ferrer

46 46 Ferrer

36 26 Ferrer

Anderson COULD be value. I don't know.

I also think Chung could be a good choice over Thiem.

Djokovic should win i think he likes the conditions there and had a very good pre season from what i have read so far but maybe Khachanov is competitive throughout the match. We'll see.

So my suggestions:

Chung over Thiem 

Anderson over Nadal

But as i wrote i haven't seen anything yet so i will decide later if i take a bet in Abu Dhabi or not.

 

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Harriet Dart to beat Caroline Dolehide at 2.90 with local bookie

Harriet isn't as bad as these odds suggests. Caroline does have a decent level but is yet to make any big breakthrough and the end of last season wasn't good for her as she totally droped her form and I think there's a chance her form hasn't made a come back yet. Harriet did a pretty good 2018 season and I think she can win a match like this.

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WTA Auckland qualif.

Valentina Ivanov @ 3.28 Pinnacle 3/10

This should be a good and competitive matchup. Ivanov and Hourigan met two weeks ago at the New Zealand national championship tournament and Ivanov won 36 64 75 in the end. I do not expect an exact repeat of the match but i think odds are still looking good although there was already a huge drop on Ivanov here.

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WTA Brisbane qualif.

Destanee Aiava @ 2.85 5dimes 2/10

Lucie Hradecka @ 5.85 5dimes 1/10

Have to go with both Aiava and Hradecka again. Both looking massively overprized here. Minella and Petkovic both struggling with consistency. Hradecka looked in really good shape today and she is a very dangerous player on good days. Only small stake here. But i expect at least one win here.

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Jil Belen Teichman to beat Silvia Soler Espinosa at 1.88 with Unibet

Silvias level hasn't been top 100 for ages now and she doesn't have mutch chances to win matches either in qualifying or WTA maindraws. Jil is a better player than Silvia atm at this surface. Jil has tendency to choke but I think Silvia does it even more so there's value on Jil here.

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ATP Brisbane qualif.

Christopher O'Connell @4.54 Pinnacle 4/10

O'Connell is really solid. He has a  good movement and is very consistent from the baseline. Maybe he lacks a real weapon in his game but he is usually doing very well at the Aussie summer and i expect a good match from him here. On the other side Garin is more adapted to claycourt, he only played a few tournaments on hardcourt and it's the first approach in Australia for him in his entire pro career (he played junior tournaments there six years ago). Let's see how he deals with the conditions. O'Connell is tough to beat. 

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6 minutes ago, opole said:

ATP Brisbane qualif.

Christopher O'Connell @4.54 Pinnacle 4/10

O'Connell is really solid. He has a  good movement and is very consistent from the baseline. Maybe he lacks a real weapon in his game but he is usually doing very well at the Aussie summer and i expect a good match from him here. On the other side Garin is more adapted to claycourt, he only played a few tournaments on hardcourt and it's the first approach in Australia for him in his entire pro career (he played junior tournaments there six years ago). Let's see how he deals with the conditions. O'Connell is tough to beat. 

Chris Garin is a tough nut to crack even on a hardcourt. Judging by his form late last season he's bound to reach the top 50 any time soon. But he still might lose this match.

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6 minutes ago, four-leaf said:

Chris Garin is a tough nut to crack even on a hardcourt. Judging by his form late last season he's bound to reach the top 50 any time soon. But he still might lose this match.

I don't think so. Not impressed by Garin so far. Can't see him cracking into Top 50 anytime soon. Once he will turn to ATP Tour level he will be exposed i think. But i do not expect it as he will play mostly challengers i think next few months after AO.

Edited by opole

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WTA Auckland qualif.

Erin Routliffe @ 3.56 Pinnacle 4/10

Panova is in a slump for years now. Her last very good year on the tour was in 2014 and her ranking dropped heavily. She is ranked #450 in the world right now and she will turn 30 in a few months so i doubt she ever will come back strong or makes it back to the Top 200/100. On hardcourt she is 3-11 in 2016, 2017 and 2018 together. I watched her match vs. Barthel earlier this month in Dubai and Panova looked really really awful there, no idea why she was playing in Dubai but she wasn't ready to compete obviously although Barthel didn't look good either but still two classes above. Her opponent today/tomorrow is Erin Routliffe a 23 yo Auckland born player who played college tennis till mid 2017 for Alabama. She is one of the biggest female tennis players i know with nearly 1.90m. She played the tournament in Auckland twice and won sets vs. Jamie Loeb (career high #132) and Dalila Jakupovic (career high #69) there so it might be a good place for her to play. I think beating Panova is not that unrealistic considering the circumstances. Routliffe has a powerful game and should hit through Panova who lacks confidence right now, her second serve is really weak and i expect some firebombs to come back from Routliffe.

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Beatriz Haddad Maia to beat (-1.5 sets) Kaja Juvan at 2.55 with local bookie

Kaja is a claycourt player of medium quality. Won a few 25k tournaments on clay beating 200+ ranked players. She is 18 years old and lost her last match in straight sets to Tatjana Maria in Dubai in December. Not expected to win that one and I don't expect her to win this one either. I'm taking a chance that Beatriz is 100 here and ready for the new season. She's been in Auckland once last season and lost in first round to the now retired Aga Radwanska in 3 sets. If Beatriz is 100 here she should win in straight sets to the unexperienced claycourter.

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Marta Kostyuk to beat Marie Bouzkova at 2.32 with Unibet

There's something about Marta and Australia. She won the junior Aussie open in 2017 and one year later qualified for her first grand slam. She lost to Marie in US open in straight sets but now I think it's time for a little revenge. Marta played a good first qualifying match beating Heater Watson in 3. That looked seriously good so I believe in her again.

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WTA Brisbane qualif.

Karolina Muchova @3.30 5dimes 3/10

Muchova leading the H2H 2-0, she beat Yastremskas 64 62 a couple of months ago in New York on hardcourt. It was a total domination job by Muchova who was in total control there, only losing few points on serve. Muchova also looked pretty good vs. solid local aussie girl Cabrera last night. I think bookies overreacting here because of Yastremska good run at the end of the season. She might be great prospect but based on the H2H i doubt we can give odds like that on Muchova.

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  • Punters Lounge Forum Tips

    • So we are into the final week of Hunter Chases for 2019 and it is the first of two at Cartmel on Bank Holiday Monday. Absainte heads the betting as I type and she looked quite progressive earlier in the season winning her first 3 races on the bounce and ran some good times in the process. Bit disappointing at Witton Castle on Easter Sunday when losing at 4/7, but she was dismounted after the finish so I suspect something didn't feel quite right. I thought she ran a good race at Cheltenham until getting tired late on behind Kalabaloo and Theatre Territory and she has decent claims in this. Stage One has won twice at Peper Harow which isn't that dissimilar to Cartmel which is probably why Alan Hill is sending him here for this. He hasn't beaten a great deal though in his two wins this season and was well beaten the two times before his last win. This shorter trip will probably suit better than 3m as well although there is plenty of competition for the lead which won't help. Gina is back on Dee Star having won on him two starts back at Bitterley when losing his maiden tag. He didn't quite see it out in the Heart Of All England at Hexham earlier in the month and that suggests this trip will suit better. I just don't think that form is overly strong though and I think he will have to improve again to take this. Fair Exchange ran really well in this race last year to finish 2nd and was also 2nd in a novice chase here. His point form this season though has been very in and out and he has had 8 runs since he made his seasonal debut in March at Didmarton. The win on Easter Saturday at Sandon was a fair effort, but he's been beaten 3 times since then. Clearly this trip and track suit and his trainer certainly knows the time of day, but another who likes to make the running. Dressedforsuccess will be much bigger than the current 7/1 come race time and it was a poor maiden he won last month. Fateh was 3rd in the Dunraven Bowl at Chepstow albeit along way behind the front two. This shorter trip will probably suit better though and he will likely sit in behind the fast pace. Only 6yo so certainly scope for the improvement which he does need to find. It doesn't make a great deal of sense why Al Le Gone is a much bigger price than Dee Star given there was only 2L between them at Hexham. He ran like this trip would suit better, but he is still a maiden and his prominent placing that night is another reason why I don't think the form is that strong.  Mickey Miller has already been beaten by Absainte this season. Mahlers Star has been nibbled already at really big prices and I guess they are going on his placed form in 2017. He certainly looks like he doesn't stay 3m when he has pulled up in both points, one in 2018 and one a month ago. I guess he could come on for the run, but this is likely to be a strong test at the trip and he might not see it out. Bedford Forrest was 2nd in this in 2017, but is hard to fancy otherwise and Baile Liam looks to have no chance. That just leaves the main selection Teeton Power. Now she does like to make the running and the one concern is the amount of front runners in the race, but I think she is good enough to be able to see off the other pace rivals and as Tabitha showed yet again at Kelso on Sunday she is good from the front. For me she has the best form in the race. Last season she was a good 2nd at Cheltenham to Popaway when simply not lasting home and it was the same in the John Corbet Cup. This season she slipped up on her return and then just held on from Sand Blast, who granted didn't really boost the form on Tuesday, but that was basically her first run of the season. She pulled up last time, but was dismounted and I suspect not all was right with the horse. Trip and track should be ideal for her and if she can see off the other front runners I think she can make all. In my view she should be the favourite. So Teeton Power is the main bet. Behind her it's quite tight as Fair Exchange and Fateh could be capable of running big races and although I am not huge on Stage One's form he should enjoy the track. I will save on Absainte though who doesn't look like she has to lead and has looked progressive this season. Teeton Power 2pts @ 7/1 with William Hill and BetVictor Absainte 1pt @ 7/2 with William Hill and BetVictor
    • Lots of Bank Holiday racing! 1 205 H: Nimby 4/5 2 420 C: Gleeful 11/4 3 515 L: Smiley Bagel 6/1 4 210 C: Onthefrontfoot 8/11 5 520 R: Mr Coco Bean 2/1 6 155 W: Belated Breath 9/4 7 615 B: Morosini 11/10 For those who remember the good old days Lucky 7 Bingo Bet - think it was Ladbrokes that started it??
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