Tennis Tips - December 29 - January 6

[CzechPunter]

Happy New Year .

[South_African_Punter]

Germany to win the Hopman Cup @ 3.00 with SportingBet

Looking over the different teams, it is clear that Germany has by the far the strongest pair. Although this was also the case last year and Switzerland won, I feel that this year, the Germans will take it as Federer is clearly not as a strong a position as he was last year. Also both Zverev and Kerber seem quite motivated to win this, watching the introductory video.

 

Edited December 27, 2018 by South_African_Punter

[four-leaf]

Germany to win Hopman cup at 3.25 with Pinnacle

I wont be betting on this myself with Pinnacle since I will get blocked from the site from January 1 2019 but it sure looks like Germany will win it this time. Angie Kerber and Sascha Zverev has the tools to make it happen. Sascha can beat everyone in the field and so can Angie.

[four-leaf]

Exhibition Abu Dhabi

Serena Williams to beat Venus Williams at 1.55 with Redbet Paf 888sport Unibet

Serena clearly has the upperhand even in an Exhibition game in Abu Dhabi and I think she's the correct favourite here and based on how they both ended their respective seasons I think Serena should be the winner of this.

Dominic Thiem to beat Karen Khachanov at 2.10 with Redbet Paf 888sport Unibet

This is just based on their rankings and the quality Thiem showed in his last match in London when he beat Kei so easily. I think  he can stick with Karen here if he wants to and an exhibition game means that none of the players will take this too serious and I think that could work for Dominic since it wasn't too serious from Kei in that last round robin match in London. But this is more or less a toss up or 50/50 so 2.10 seems reasonable on Dominic.

[four-leaf]

51 minutes ago, four-leaf said:

Germany to win Hopman cup at 3.25 with Pinnacle

I wont be betting on this myself with Pinnacle since I will get blocked from the site from January 1 2019 but it sure looks like Germany will win it this time. Angie Kerber and Sascha Zverev has the tools to make it happen. Sascha can beat everyone in the field and so can Angie.

Germanys odds are down to 3.05 on Pinnacle

[opole]

WTA Brisbane qualif.

Destanee Aiava @ 2.17 Pinnacle 4/10

Don't know what to think about Vania King. Obviously she struggled a lot with injuries during the last couple of years. She only played 15 matches in 2018 and 7 matches in 2017. She retired twice in 2018 during her matches and also gave a walkover once. It looks like her body isn't doing well at singles competition. I read a couple of interviews and she clearly said she is focusing on doubles in 2019 so i don't know how to rate her here. Aiava is a huge talent although she wasn't playing her best tennis during the 2018 season but she has a good history in Brisbane, in 2017 she won four matches there reaching the second round losing to Kuznetsova. We all forget about the fact she is still very young and just turned 18 this year. I really like her powerful game. She is a huge prospect and i expect her to start strong at the Australian summer as Aussies always playing really good there. 

[four-leaf]

Dominic Thiem to beat (-1.5 sets) Karen Khachanov at 3.90 with Unibet Redbet 888sport

Going for the upset in 2 here, Dominic looked good in his last match in London and should be well prepared for this one. He's not better in any way on the Abu Dhabi surface and he lost in straight sets in Paris to Karen just two months ago. But that doesn't matter at all I think and I think it might be worth chancing on the upset in 2.

[four-leaf]

Kevin Anderson to beat Rafa Nadal at 2.65 with Unibet Redbet 888sport

Is Rafa back already? I don't think so. He's gonna have to use this match as a preparation ofcourse and he wont win it.

[opole]

Sb. watched the Abu Dhabi exo matches today and could give me / us a short info about how those four players looked? I haven't watched a second so far and i won't make any bets without watching it but maybe sb. can give a short impression of what happened? 

Rafa usually is a slow starter at those exos and Anderson is a tough matchup for him in the first match i assume.

Rafas results in the previous years:

60 64 Berdych

26 06 Murray

63 67 63 Ferrer

46 46 Ferrer

36 26 Ferrer

Anderson COULD be value. I don't know.

I also think Chung could be a good choice over Thiem.

Djokovic should win i think he likes the conditions there and had a very good pre season from what i have read so far but maybe Khachanov is competitive throughout the match. We'll see.

So my suggestions:

Chung over Thiem 

Anderson over Nadal

But as i wrote i haven't seen anything yet so i will decide later if i take a bet in Abu Dhabi or not.

 

[opole]

live inplay

Lucie Hradecka @3.32 pinnacle 2/10

[opole]

Both Aiava and Hradecka winning their matches easily.

Good start.

 

[four-leaf]

Good work @opole

[four-leaf]

Harriet Dart to beat Caroline Dolehide at 2.90 with local bookie

Harriet isn't as bad as these odds suggests. Caroline does have a decent level but is yet to make any big breakthrough and the end of last season wasn't good for her as she totally droped her form and I think there's a chance her form hasn't made a come back yet. Harriet did a pretty good 2018 season and I think she can win a match like this.

[opole]

WTA Auckland qualif.

Valentina Ivanov @ 3.28 Pinnacle 3/10

This should be a good and competitive matchup. Ivanov and Hourigan met two weeks ago at the New Zealand national championship tournament and Ivanov won 36 64 75 in the end. I do not expect an exact repeat of the match but i think odds are still looking good although there was already a huge drop on Ivanov here.

[opole]

WTA Brisbane qualif.

Destanee Aiava @ 2.85 5dimes 2/10

Lucie Hradecka @ 5.85 5dimes 1/10

Have to go with both Aiava and Hradecka again. Both looking massively overprized here. Minella and Petkovic both struggling with consistency. Hradecka looked in really good shape today and she is a very dangerous player on good days. Only small stake here. But i expect at least one win here.

[four-leaf]

Jil Belen Teichman to beat Silvia Soler Espinosa at 1.88 with Unibet

Silvias level hasn't been top 100 for ages now and she doesn't have mutch chances to win matches either in qualifying or WTA maindraws. Jil is a better player than Silvia atm at this surface. Jil has tendency to choke but I think Silvia does it even more so there's value on Jil here.

[opole]

ATP Brisbane qualif.

Christopher O'Connell @4.54 Pinnacle 4/10

O'Connell is really solid. He has a  good movement and is very consistent from the baseline. Maybe he lacks a real weapon in his game but he is usually doing very well at the Aussie summer and i expect a good match from him here. On the other side Garin is more adapted to claycourt, he only played a few tournaments on hardcourt and it's the first approach in Australia for him in his entire pro career (he played junior tournaments there six years ago). Let's see how he deals with the conditions. O'Connell is tough to beat. 

[four-leaf]

Christina Mchale to beat Viktoriya Tomova at 2.18 with Unibet

Christina seems to have turned a corner on her bad form and I think she might be worth backing here.

[four-leaf]

6 minutes ago, opole said:

ATP Brisbane qualif.

Christopher O'Connell @4.54 Pinnacle 4/10

O'Connell is really solid. He has a  good movement and is very consistent from the baseline. Maybe he lacks a real weapon in his game but he is usually doing very well at the Aussie summer and i expect a good match from him here. On the other side Garin is more adapted to claycourt, he only played a few tournaments on hardcourt and it's the first approach in Australia for him in his entire pro career (he played junior tournaments there six years ago). Let's see how he deals with the conditions. O'Connell is tough to beat. 

Chris Garin is a tough nut to crack even on a hardcourt. Judging by his form late last season he's bound to reach the top 50 any time soon. But he still might lose this match.

[opole]

6 minutes ago, four-leaf said:

Chris Garin is a tough nut to crack even on a hardcourt. Judging by his form late last season he's bound to reach the top 50 any time soon. But he still might lose this match.

I don't think so. Not impressed by Garin so far. Can't see him cracking into Top 50 anytime soon. Once he will turn to ATP Tour level he will be exposed i think. But i do not expect it as he will play mostly challengers i think next few months after AO.

Edited December 28, 2018 by opole

[four-leaf]

Christian Garin/Christopher O'connell over 2.5 sets at 2.80 with local bookie

I expect a tough match here and I'm not sure who wins it so I don't dare to back the underdog and when my local swedish bookie offers over 2.5 sets I got to take a chance on that.

[opole]

WTA Auckland qualif.

Erin Routliffe @ 3.56 Pinnacle 4/10

Panova is in a slump for years now. Her last very good year on the tour was in 2014 and her ranking dropped heavily. She is ranked #450 in the world right now and she will turn 30 in a few months so i doubt she ever will come back strong or makes it back to the Top 200/100. On hardcourt she is 3-11 in 2016, 2017 and 2018 together. I watched her match vs. Barthel earlier this month in Dubai and Panova looked really really awful there, no idea why she was playing in Dubai but she wasn't ready to compete obviously although Barthel didn't look good either but still two classes above. Her opponent today/tomorrow is Erin Routliffe a 23 yo Auckland born player who played college tennis till mid 2017 for Alabama. She is one of the biggest female tennis players i know with nearly 1.90m. She played the tournament in Auckland twice and won sets vs. Jamie Loeb (career high #132) and Dalila Jakupovic (career high #69) there so it might be a good place for her to play. I think beating Panova is not that unrealistic considering the circumstances. Routliffe has a powerful game and should hit through Panova who lacks confidence right now, her second serve is really weak and i expect some firebombs to come back from Routliffe.

[four-leaf]

Beatriz Haddad Maia to beat (-1.5 sets) Kaja Juvan at 2.55 with local bookie

Kaja is a claycourt player of medium quality. Won a few 25k tournaments on clay beating 200+ ranked players. She is 18 years old and lost her last match in straight sets to Tatjana Maria in Dubai in December. Not expected to win that one and I don't expect her to win this one either. I'm taking a chance that Beatriz is 100 here and ready for the new season. She's been in Auckland once last season and lost in first round to the now retired Aga Radwanska in 3 sets. If Beatriz is 100 here she should win in straight sets to the unexperienced claycourter.

[four-leaf]

Marta Kostyuk to beat Marie Bouzkova at 2.32 with Unibet

There's something about Marta and Australia. She won the junior Aussie open in 2017 and one year later qualified for her first grand slam. She lost to Marie in US open in straight sets but now I think it's time for a little revenge. Marta played a good first qualifying match beating Heater Watson in 3. That looked seriously good so I believe in her again.

[opole]

WTA Brisbane qualif.

Karolina Muchova @3.30 5dimes 3/10

Muchova leading the H2H 2-0, she beat Yastremskas 64 62 a couple of months ago in New York on hardcourt. It was a total domination job by Muchova who was in total control there, only losing few points on serve. Muchova also looked pretty good vs. solid local aussie girl Cabrera last night. I think bookies overreacting here because of Yastremska good run at the end of the season. She might be great prospect but based on the H2H i doubt we can give odds like that on Muchova.

[four-leaf]

@opole you pick so many underdogs to win. Reality probably looks different since some of the underdogs should lose but if you get every match correct I'll be very happy. Lucie Hradecka has a 3-1 head to head over Andrea Petkovic winning twice on hardcourt a few years ago and losing that one time on clay. Lucie clearly has an edge on hardcourt so It's not fair to give her 5+ odds. I've only backed you on Destanee Aiava and Lucie Hradecka but if those two wins that I'll be enough for me.

[opole]

4 minutes ago, four-leaf said:

@opole you pick so many underdogs to win. Reality probably looks different since some of the underdogs should lose but if you get every match correct I'll be very happy. Lucie Hradecka has a 3-1 head to head over Andrea Petkovic winning twice on hardcourt a few years ago and losing that one time on clay. Lucie clearly has an edge on hardcourt so It's not fair to give her 5+ odds. I've only backed you on Destanee Aiava and Lucie Hradecka but if those two wins that I'll be enough for me.

I don't like picking 50/50 matches with short odds or even set handicaps on WTA tour level. Never my style and obviously it's more reasonable to pick underdogs at the beginning of the season as in the mid of a season. But let's see what happens...have a good feeling for Aiava, Hradecka, Routliffe and Muchova. Ivanov is more a try as she beat Hourigan two weeks ago so why not repeating that? O'Connell is more a feel out in the mens secotr as i do not rate Garin and O'Connell always looked good at the beginning of the season in Australia. Probably more reasonable to put money on the set/Game handicap or over.

Edited December 28, 2018 by opole

[Grass Cash]

1 hour ago, four-leaf said:

@opole you pick so many underdogs to win. Reality probably looks different since some of the underdogs should lose but if you get every match correct I'll be very happy. Lucie Hradecka has a 3-1 head to head over Andrea Petkovic winning twice on hardcourt a few years ago and losing that one time on clay. Lucie clearly has an edge on hardcourt so It's not fair to give her 5+ odds. I've only backed you on Destanee Aiava and Lucie Hradecka but if those two wins that I'll be enough for me.

There is no reason for underdogs to lose .. They win almost every single day.. The only challenge is picking the right ones , and with the most thorough analysis and info.. Maybe it is possible to select the winner everytime.. These lines are not real.. especially situations with very close odds 2.10.. sometimes the bookmaker knows who is going to win, and set the line as a slight underdog so all the money comes the other way, and they win on everybody bet who is "supposed" to actually win the match. I hope you can understand this, and not worry about how often picks win .. pay attention to the profit at the end of the day or year.. Its your responsibility to decide if its worth taking a risk.. Opole is hand delivering his best knowledge.. You can't change the way a person a bets, but find a way that it could help you without hurting your bankroll too much on losses.   happy new years guys, and  there will be more epic stories to tell at the end of the year again. 

Edited December 28, 2018 by money44

[South_African_Punter]

Taro Daniel to beat JP Smith at 1.75 (Brisbane Qualifying)

Not much to say except that I think Taro should be too good for Smith here.

[four-leaf]

3 hours ago, South_African_Punter said:

Taro Daniel to beat JP Smith at 1.75 (Brisbane Qualifying)

Not much to say except that I think Taro should be too good for Smith here.

Taro is a player who easily gets exposed at the higher ATP level but he should beat a guy who mostly reaches quarter and maximum semifinal of challenger tournaments. JP has the homefactor here only.