Mindfulness

We've completed the hard yards on this one but I've now backed Benevento +0.50 @ 3.30 just to guarantee some profits. I've emailed Gennaro and told him it's important that he does the business tommorow, he understood:
http://www.football-italia.net/113668/gattuso-benevento-champions-league
 

I can't go into the full reasons just now but Eastbourne must be backed to beat Gloucester on Saturday. 19/10 is available with BetVictor at the moment, but the price will collapse when the news comes out at midday. I suggest taking the -1 handicap as well. I am gutted about what is going on and what will be announced, but I may as well try and make some money out of the sorry situation. I will post more when I can.

For the 3rd week in a row the bookies are overestimating a very limited Hearts side ( i'm repeating myself every week but they are a very poor side ). To have them odds on favourites against anyone in this league is just wrong. Hamilton have shown a few times this season they can get results away from home and at these odds it's well worth backing an away win. Hamilton at 5.00 is worth a couple of quid. Odds against for them not losing is just madness. Hamilton +1 at 2.20 is an early Christmas present.
 

Accumulator
Everton V Huddersfield Town = Under 3.5
Watford V Tottenham Hotspur = BTTS
Crystal Palace +0.50
Manchester Utd +0.50
AC Milan
6.52 @ Unibet

Game was always gonna be a bit moody @Tiffy but glad there wasn't a lot of trouble.
We both did an appauling job on selections for the match itself
Credit to anyone who took the draw.

Game was always gonna be a bit moody @Tiffy but glad there wasn't a lot of trouble.
We both did an appauling job on selections for the match itself
Credit to anyone who took the draw.

POST MATCH
I find most Palace fans to be decent people, but the ones that turn up to the Amex are idiots. There was trouble all over the place and the Palace Ultras sprayed over the BRUNO painting in the city centre, which set the tone for the night. The away end was unusually quiet last night too, probably the least vocal I have ever seen them. There were fireworks, flares and firecrackers going off throughout the game too, I've never seen as much at a football match before. But the atmosphere in the first half was generally cracking tho. And I am pleased to say that there was no trouble inside the ground.
Yes @StevieDay1983, you can't call it a Derby, it is more of a rivalry tat started in the 70's. Up to this point Brighton's nickname was the Dolphins, but the fans started chanting "Seagulls" in response to Palace fans chanting "Eagles"!
@Mindfulness You were right to call it "El Crapico", neither team showed any class last night. Both teams good defensively, but awful in the final 3rd.  A great double save early on to deny Beneke & Zaha was probably Palaces best chance. But overall both teams were evenly matched, with perhaps Brighton shading it in the 2nd HALF, (hence the corner count). Given the amount of money Palace have spent, and the quality of players on display, I wouldn't say they were any better than Brighton overall, which was pleasing.
The corner count finished 10-5. I am amazed Brighton had 10 corners, I don't think I have ever seen it before, but they were the more dominant in attack in the 2nd half. Palace let me down by 1 corner, typical really, I don't think they have ever won a bet for me! 
Both teams could have scored, perhaps should have scored, and Brighton had the best chances in the second half.
There was more chance of a late goal than an early one too. I was convinced hat either team would nick it with a scrappy late winner.
A draw was a fair result, and I am pleased that it is over now. I always look forward to this fixture, and relieved when it has passed.
i had 3 bets last night
Palace over 5.5 corners - (Lost, 10-5)
Watord +2 AH  corners@ 2.0 (Won 5-5)
LEIC V TOT Each team over 1 corner@ 1 2 (Won 4-9)
It brings the question up,  should their be midweek football in the prem? Both teams put a shift in on Saturday, and I think it showed last night. I think I would rather watch weekend football only, if it was better quality than this. 

@Mindfulness
B@@@@@@d!
i have to agree with your pre match write up. Form is out of the window on this one, and yes, Palace are playing well now. I can see both teams going for it, and Your mob always do well here, (apart from the St Patrick's day massacre)
i'd agree with your shout on cards, and perhaps BTTS YES wouldn't be a bad shout either. Brighton are unbeaten at home this season and Palace need the points. So it should make for an entertaining game, with the added spice that it is the first meeting in the Prem.
I can also see late goals, something that happens when you play here, and also has happened this season. 
As for those bloody clackers, I don't think they would dare! I can't stand the things. The trouble with the club, is that they turn a match into an occasion. Often it gets to the players, so hopefully this won't be turned into anything other that something that it should. Just another Derby match.
 I'll take a look at prices and update if I get 5 mins.
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE IN 2nd HALF 4.0
BTTS YES 2.0
GOAL AFTER 69m 1.83
Another quick edit!
Brighton never have a lot of corners, they lost the count 5-0 on Saturday. Palace need the win more than Brighton & I'd be surprised if they didn't keep coming forward all game. I'd fancy them to get at least 6 corners in the game. They are 1.44 to get the most corners.
PALACE OVER 5.5 CORNERS 1.9
 
 

Aye, 'El Crapico' is the one game to rule them all and of course this year it's taking place in the top tier. I'm not going though, the Brighton streets will get too saucy for my liking:

Hopefully will have more to say on the midweek thread.
I've really got no comment with regards to Palace V Stoke, highly unpredictable game, apologies.

So last night didn't go to plant although it was great to watch Billericay lose and Tamplin throw his toys out of the pram. One tip one winner last Saturday and then both bets won on Tuesday night and FCUM had an amazing come back. From just one bet last weekend I have 7 teams that are worth an interest this weekend.
Leyton Orient v Dover
Orient finally sacked Steve Davies this week which wasn't a big surprise given how bad their form has been in recent weeks. Going forward they don't look too bad at all, but time after time their defence lets them down massively and it was the case against Ebbsfleet in front of the TV cameras last Saturday. They have had key players injured in defence which hasn't helped, but I think it might take until the new manager comes in to sort their defensive issues out. Dover are surprising leaders and I would be even more surprised if they were still top come the end of April, but they are 9 games unbeaten now and crucially they are very solid at the back and have conceded just 5 on their travels all season. That's impressive and you would imagine they will get chances at the other end to score. I think they should really be favourites for this one so the fact they aren't makes them well worth backing.
Bradford Park Avenue v Brackley
Given 2nd place Brackley's recent good form it might be surprising that I am putting up the home side, but I think BPA have been over priced. Their home form has been very strong and they have lost just once in their last 7 home league games. That was against top team Salford and even then it was only 2-1 in a game they more than held their own in. Brackley have won their last five, but they have been playing some of the lesser sides in the division and this game is much harder than their recent matches. The 3/1 on offer about a home win is way above what I would have it.
Gainsborough Trinity v FCUM
I am going to continue backing FCUM after their fantastic win on Tuesday night. To come from 2 down to win it 3-2 was a huge effort and they were by all accounts superb in the 2nd half. Granted they have only won once away in the league all season, but they look an improved side since Greaves took over as caretaker manager and so I think that can be ignored to a certain extent. Trinity have won just 3 at home in the league all season although to be fair two of those were their last two home league games. We have to add to that though that they did lose 6-0 to Slough in the FA Cup.The away side look the value at over 2/1 to pick up another 3 points.
East Thurrock v Havant & Waterlooville
The home side were unbeatable at the start of the season, but now they can't win games of football. They haven't won in 7 league games now and they have lost their last 3 including a shocking effort at Bath last weekend when losing 4-0. They also conceded 4 in their previous game against Weston. They have also failed to win in their last 5 home league matches. Havant come into this in really good form and they have been superb away from home all season. Their only defeat came at St Albans and they beat top of the table Braintree in their penultimate away league match. Given they have won just two at home in the league it is clear they seem to be performing much better on their travels. Given East Thurrock's recent form you would be hopeful of them continuing that form on Saturday.
Hungerford v Truro
Fair to say Truro have been the surprise package in the National League South so far this season and currently sit in 3rd position. They have lost just one of their last ten and had a superb 3-1 victory over Dartford last Saturday. Hungerford are struggling and have won just one of their last 9 league games and that came over bottom side Whitehawk. Truro should probably be nearly odds on for this game and you would expect them to be able to carry on their good form here.
Lowestoft v Margate
Amazingly Lowestoft did manage to win last week although that was against the massively inconsistent Merstham. Just in case anyone thought they might be making progress again on the pitch they duly went and lost 3-0 to Thurrock on Tuesday night. Margate had a little wobble where they didn't win in 5 league games, but they drew 3 of them and the two losses are their only two in their last 10 games. Margate have the joint 2nd best away points tally in the Bostik Premier with 14 in 8 games and given they perform so well away I am confident they should be able to beat a Lowestoft side who have plenty of issues. They look the best bet of the weekend.
Worthing v Leiston
Finally a bit more of a speculative bet in bottom side Worthing. Now they have won just two league games all season, but crucially they were their last two games. They were disappointingly beaten by Thame in the FA Trophy last weekend, but otherwise they look an improved side, indeed they have picked up 8 of their 9 points in their last 6 games. Leiston may be on 26 points, but they look in a right mess on the pitch on the moment. They have lost 4 of their last 5 games in the league and were hammered 4-1 by Dorking in the FA Trophy last Saturday, which just happen to be the last side they beat in the league. A bit more of a risky one, but I think the price offers value as Leiston are very low on confidence right now.
Dover 1pt @ 197/100 with Marathon
Bradford Park Avenue 1pt @ 3/1 with Betfred and Bet365
FCUM 1pt @ 52/25 with Marathon
Havant 2pts @ 44/25 with Marathon
Truro 1pt @ 127/100 with Marathon
Margate 2.5pts @ 29/20 with Sportingbet
Worthing 1pt @ 5/2 with BetVictor

First week back after internationals and this card is a shower of shite for AH value imo.
Can't argue with the logic of playing X or unders this gameweek but there's nothing outstanding from my perspective.
 
Burnley V Swansea City
X @ 3.2 Bet365
I'm still not convinced by Burnley on their own turf but self belief and efficiency have enabled them to pickup some strong results thus far. As with Palace, I fear for Swansea's survival hopes this season. Paul Clement's side has been low on confidence and some of their bigger players need to step up to the plate. In terms of quality, there is not a big disparity between the two teams in this match. Could be a drab, low scoring encounter and @andrewcalo is already looking to the 0-0 here. I agree with the general consensus and will go for X.
 
Crystal Palace V Everton
X @ 3.3 Betfred
This fixture should have been 0-0 back in January but poor officiating allowed the game to have a winner. Not much has changed since then in my view apart from Everton are way more inept infront of goal these days. Both of these teams struggle for goals and it's really hard to see a winner from this contest. Under 2.5 market offers no value for this game imo so I will go with X.

I'm not so sure. I can see a couple of games with goals. How many players will be fatigued? Lots of key players took a time out (i.e. Spurs for example). And these were friendlies, with little pressure.
I think a lot of the top flight were thankful for a relatively easy break, and we could see a lot of full-pelt games. 
I DO fancy Swansea Burnley to be one goal at most. But my money will be on 0-0.

Some interesting ratings for this card. I wont be committing my chips early as I want to have a good look at team news after the international break: injuries, fatigue, late flights etc.
On a separate note: Davide Ballardini has been appointed manager at Genoa, replacing Ivan Juric.

Here are the odds and ratings for the first set of Serie A games after the international break. Roma versus Lazio and Napoli versus AC Milan are the two games that will steal all the attention that weekend. What do you guys think going into these matches?
@TastesLikeTuna, @discipline, @Icongene, @betcatalog, @jamiedavies02, @Pipoca, @sajtion, @Vcg2007, @chris666, @WinningAdvice, @yoju82, @DrBetter, @KingSoccertips, @CloughandTaylor, @Punki85, @DW_United, @KikoCy, @vasilli07. @Simeon Borisof, @Simeone, @fat, @HastGill1, @clubgowi, @MPLouis, @Kumanovac, @AF13, @Jase82, @TOTTI3, @azzurini1976, @Mindfulness, @amygdalate, @thegeneral55, @scommetix, @Kripp222, and @TotoSchillaci.

My system says 4 home wins tomorrow. Likely too. Spurs should be too much for Palace. Man City have an extra day of rest over the Arse and are home. Everton at home and need the win and Kante back for Chelsea who are due a win by now and the scum aka Judas neber thinks straught agaunst his former club. That one looks 1-0/2-0.
It looked like draws this week but I held back tipping due to the differentials. 1 draw is now most likley
My parlay -
4 home wins premiership with Man City added over 2.5 and the Chelsea win two bets 1-0 2-0 (smaller stake).
Las Palmas +3
Sociedad over 2.5.
and a separate acca as Chelsea win under 2.5 with two of @betcatalog 's picks added - Roma game over 2 5 and Lyon game over 2.5.
That last one comes in at 230 to 1. Happy days
 
p.s.s The Real Madrid V Las Palmas bet in particular is the outstanding play this week .
Notorious eat your heart out lol
Both these fixtures last season ended in score DRAWS! You can get Las Palmas +4 at 1.65! Crazy.
Real Madrid will want a win here, nothing more. And las Palmas didn't play mid-week.
 

Swansea City V Brighton & Hove Albion
Brighton & Hove Albion +0.25 @ 2.10 Paddy Power
A close match on paper but the stats show Brighton are the more efficient team infront of goal and I'm not sure that markets have this one price correctly.
Obviously Brighton have form advantage but when will the fortunes of either team begin to turn? Swansea will see this as an important and winnable game against a perceived relegation rival. The home team can be a menace from wide areas in this game as I have reservations about Brighton's ability to defend flank attacks. Despite this, Paul Clement's side have struggled infront of goal all season and I'm concerned the problem might be terminal for their Premier League survival hopes.
Brighton have not exactly been world beaters in the final 3rd either but that might start to change with the return to fitness of Glenn Murray. He is a massively underrated centre-forward and he will enhance players around him such as Knockaert, March, Izquierdo and Gross.
When it comes to the crunch we have two teams that are closely matched in a difficult game to predict. I was expecting Brighton +0 line to be around 2.10 for this game but instead we're getting +0.25 line at said price. Brighton +0.25 @ odds against seems to be a reasonable value play here.

Thanks to Stourbridge's easy win on Tuesday night we made nice little profit to keep things ticking over. Obviously with the FA Cup we have a reduced fixture list in the leagues, but I like the look of 3 bets.
Leamington v Boston
Boston are not in a good shape on the field at the moment as they continue to look for a new manager. They have only collected 1 point in their last 7 league games and they have just 1 point from their 8 away league games conceding 20 goals in the process. That is a pretty sorry state of affairs and it makes improving Leamington an attractive betting proposition. Leamington had an awful start to the season, but they have turned it around and they are now unbeaten in 7 league games. Having lost their first 5 home games of the season, they are now unbeaten in 3 and Marathon's 23/20 about them winning this looks very attractive.
Stalybridge v Mickleover
Stalybridge have only picked up 1 away point all season, but their home form is a very different matter. In the league they have won 5 of their last 7 and after drawing at Prescot in the FA Trophy on Saturday they then thumped them 5-0 at home in the replay. That really does tell us they are two very different sides at home and away. Mickleover are solid enough and are unbeaten in 4 in the league although they did lose in the FA Trophy last Saturday. I just think though that at home Stalybridge will have too much for them and BetVictor's 31/20 appeals.
Lowestoft v Met Police
Big changes are happening at Lowestoft with the long standing chairman having left recently and then the manager who had been their 18 years also deciding to leave. It is fair to say they are in a state of flux at the moment. They lost their last league game 6-2 and then lost 3-0 to Worthing in the FA Trophy and Worthing have yet to win in the league this season. Now Met Police are looking potential play-off contenders as they are unbeaten in their last 8 games. The slight worry is they have actually only won once away in the league all season and they have drawn their last 3 including at Worthing. Usually that would be enough to put me off, but given the issues at Lowestoft at the moment, it looks a cracking opportunity for them to get 3 points on the road and they really do look overpriced at 7/4 with BetVictor. This would be a 4 point tip if it wasn't for their away form so I am halving the stakes.
Leamington 2pts @ 23/20 with Marathon
Stalybridge 1pt @ 31/20 with BetVictor
Met Police 2pts @ 7/4 with BetVictor

I'll post my tip tomorrow, but I agree with Darran re Lowestoft. They are a club in trouble.
They happen to be the team I follow (I had a friend play for them) and I rarely miss an away match (6 in 4 seasons ain't bad) - they were utter shite down at Worthing last weekend and had the sub-keeper kitted-up to play midfield - they had two subs. One had never kicked a ball at any level and I don't think he had a kick in the 30 minutes he was on the pitch.
My only negative is that Dale Brooks has been confirmed as manager - has the players backing and he has a decent CV. 
I have backed the Rozzers at 7/4 which is a fair price.
Crowd will not exceed 380 (all home fans).
 

Everton V Watford
Watford +0.25 @ 2.12 Betvictor
I feel Watford are priced too big against a struggling Everton side here. I watched Leicester V Everton at the weekend and David Unsworth has a task on his hands. Everton showed some decent countering threat with the forward runs of Aaron Lennon and long passing of Wayne Rooney but they still lack a ruthless centre-forward and genuine midfield playmaker. This may become even more apparent in home matches where you have to make the game + the Goodison crowd can run out of patience pretty quickly these days.
Watford on the other hand are suited to playing away from home and I think they can cause Everton some problems here. We know that Troy Deeney will be banned for this game after Joe Allen incident but it shouldn't be of too much concern as Andre Gray will be a handy replacement for this game with his speed on the counter. I also expect Richarlison and Carrillo will like this game as Everton have really struggled at right-back this season in the absence of Seamus Coleman and Unsworth looks no closer to finding a solution there.
Watford ahead on key metrics, ELO ratings. Everton have to play in Lyon on Thursday. Markets have Everton as clear favourites for Watford game and I cannot understand why. I would expect +/- 0 line to be much more balanced than it is here. Watford +0.25 @ odds against seems to be decent value play in this situation.

Swansea City V Brighton & Hove Albion
Brighton & Hove Albion +0.25 @ 2.10 Paddy Power
A close match on paper but the stats show Brighton are the more efficient team infront of goal and I'm not sure that markets have this one price correctly.
Obviously Brighton have form advantage but when will the fortunes of either team begin to turn? Swansea will see this as an important and winnable game against a perceived relegation rival. The home team can be a menace from wide areas in this game as I have reservations about Brighton's ability to defend flank attacks. Despite this, Paul Clement's side have struggled infront of goal all season and I'm concerned the problem might be terminal for their Premier League survival hopes.
Brighton have not exactly been world beaters in the final 3rd either but that might start to change with the return to fitness of Glenn Murray. He is a massively underrated centre-forward and he will enhance players around him such as Knockaert, March, Izquierdo and Gross.
When it comes to the crunch we have two teams that are closely matched in a difficult game to predict. I was expecting Brighton +0 line to be around 2.10 for this game but instead we're getting +0.25 line at said price. Brighton +0.25 @ odds against seems to be a reasonable value play here.

Right I have already written this once and forgot to press the submit reply button so I am going to have to write it again!
Poole v Concord
I was tempted to oppose Poole on Saturday when they played my team Gloucester as we had been much improved against Welling the weak before. In the end I wanted to wait to see if we could carry on in that vain and Poole were unbeaten in 3. As it turned out we won 3-0 and it was very much a deserved victory. Poole have only picked up 2 points at home all season and I just can't understand how they can be odds on against any side in the league, bar Whitehawk, so Concord look a great value play. Now Concord have also only picked up 2 points on their travels, but there have been signs that they are improving. They have drawn their last 4 league games and they included the 2 away draws so far. On Saturday they drew at Oxford City and the City keeper won the man of the match of the award which tells you all you need to know about how well Concord played. They also were the better side in two FA Cup games against Woking who only won in extra time and didn't deserve to. It all points to the fact Concord are very much overpriced at 3/1 with Marathon.
Sutton Coldfield v Stourbridge
Sutton Coldfield are bottom of the table. They have only one win in their last ten league games and have had some hefty defeats in that spell conceding a massive 30 goals. Saturday saw them lose 3-0 to Stamford in the FA Trophy who play in the league below and they managed to get two goalkeepers sent off! Stourbridge have lost their last two league games and have been disappointing in both. Their away form has been very good though winning 5 and losing just once and they had a very good FA Trophy win against Basford who have yet to lose in their league. This looks a great gamefor Stourbridge to get back to winning ways in the league and Marathon's 11/8 makes plenty of appeal.
Concord 1pt @ 3/1 with Marathon
Stourbridge 2.5pts @ 11/8 with Marathon

Swansea City V Brighton & Hove Albion
Brighton & Hove Albion +0.25 @ 2.10 Paddy Power
A close match on paper but the stats show Brighton are the more efficient team infront of goal and I'm not sure that markets have this one price correctly.
Obviously Brighton have form advantage but when will the fortunes of either team begin to turn? Swansea will see this as an important and winnable game against a perceived relegation rival. The home team can be a menace from wide areas in this game as I have reservations about Brighton's ability to defend flank attacks. Despite this, Paul Clement's side have struggled infront of goal all season and I'm concerned the problem might be terminal for their Premier League survival hopes.
Brighton have not exactly been world beaters in the final 3rd either but that might start to change with the return to fitness of Glenn Murray. He is a massively underrated centre-forward and he will enhance players around him such as Knockaert, March, Izquierdo and Gross.
When it comes to the crunch we have two teams that are closely matched in a difficult game to predict. I was expecting Brighton +0 line to be around 2.10 for this game but instead we're getting +0.25 line at said price. Brighton +0.25 @ odds against seems to be a reasonable value play here.

Everton V Watford
Watford +0.25 @ 2.12 Betvictor
I feel Watford are priced too big against a struggling Everton side here. I watched Leicester V Everton at the weekend and David Unsworth has a task on his hands. Everton showed some decent countering threat with the forward runs of Aaron Lennon and long passing of Wayne Rooney but they still lack a ruthless centre-forward and genuine midfield playmaker. This may become even more apparent in home matches where you have to make the game + the Goodison crowd can run out of patience pretty quickly these days.
Watford on the other hand are suited to playing away from home and I think they can cause Everton some problems here. We know that Troy Deeney will be banned for this game after Joe Allen incident but it shouldn't be of too much concern as Andre Gray will be a handy replacement for this game with his speed on the counter. I also expect Richarlison and Carrillo will like this game as Everton have really struggled at right-back this season in the absence of Seamus Coleman and Unsworth looks no closer to finding a solution there.
Watford ahead on key metrics, ELO ratings. Everton have to play in Lyon on Thursday. Markets have Everton as clear favourites for Watford game and I cannot understand why. I would expect +/- 0 line to be much more balanced than it is here. Watford +0.25 @ odds against seems to be decent value play in this situation.

Yes I agree, antepost is very tricky. I've done a couple long shot accas, more for fun really. 
I'm always happy to give my input on the Albion, and I'm now going to see if I end up looking clever or a plonker by the end of the season!
Good luck against Wet Spam tmrw, I am tempted to go for BTTS, as it is a must win for both teams.

Manchester Utd V Tottenham Hotspur
X @ 3.40 Bet365
This is a match that will show us what Man U are really made of. Tottenham are ofcourse weaker without Harry Kane and their defending against West Ham midweek was shambolic but they are still a force to be reckoned with in my view. If Man U win this it will be a great result for them as they are not exactly firing on all cylinders as of late. I could forgive those who are looking at the home team on -0.25 line here but I think X maybe the way to go as both teams have extremely close ELO rating right now.
 
Crystal Palace V West Ham Utd
X @ 3.30 Bet365
Watching the outcome of Palace games is bad comedy at the minute. A draw would have been the just outcome at Newcastle last week while the game at Ashton Gate midweek can only be described as bizarre. Results are not matching performances with a physics defying breakdown of cause and effect at play. The shit is getting so spooky I'm starting to think a draw at home to West Ham would be a good result. Picking a winner here seems like suicide as both teams are playing in the twilight zone, if you put a gun to my head I would lean slightly towards West Ham here but markets are accurate with asian lines for this game. Very little ELO disparity between the two so I will go for X here.