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Mindfulness

Premier League Ante-Post 2017-2018

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Right folks, as soon as the season ends you should start planning for the next one. Keep following the markets in the comming weeks and lookout for opportunities.

@StevieDay1983 Any chance of getting some odds posted for new campaign? Winner, Top 4, Relegation etc.

@Tiffy So you punks finally made it back to the big time huh? Congrats! Look forward to your input in the EPL threads this year.

@Kenton Schweppes Likewise, crazy to see Huddersfield back in the top tier, big achievement. Be good to see you on the EPL threads this year.

@andrewcalo I guess you called in all your favours as neither of us will have to ply our trade in the second tier next year. Just aswell since 24 teams and countless midweek cards isn't something I miss.

@Sir Puntalot We've been advocating the ELO ratings for a while now and I feel they're beginning to believe.

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Stay mindful peeps.

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@Mindfulness yeah thank fcuk for that. Though part of me wold have liked to have been able to watch the Swans every game on the TV. And winning the Championship from day one.

I'm looking forward to next season, I think the life being scared out of us will do us a world of good.

What about Big Same leaving though?

Edited by andrewcalo

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@andrewcalo Yeh I'm pissed off about Allardyce leaving because he guarantees EPL status + it's unwanted disruption, but the man has to do what's best for him. We also have very good backroom staff and coaches now, you wonder what will happen to them under a new manager. Players such as Hennessey and Townsend have benefited loads from our improved coaching setup and that needs to continue.

I'm sure Parish will make the right appointment, my preference would be Dyche or Pellegrino, have to wait and see. If Neil Warnock comes back for 'one final job' I think I'll have to go to bed with a bottle of whisky and a revolver.

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1 hour ago, andrewcalo said:

He's a twat really lol

It's hard to disagree with that comment. I'm pretty sure when he was Swansea manager and a Leeds manager was sacked he tweeted something about what a disgrace it was. Then later he goes and works there under the same regime if I'm not mistaken. That's football for you though I suppose.

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@StevieDay1983 Oh the dreaded Tinkerman! I very much doubt he will be appointed Palace manager as Parish says he wants someone for the long term... Hang on a second! I'm sure I've heard this before...

On initital viewing of the relegation market I would say Watford are a little short @ 2.50 - They did have a woeful run right at the end of 2016/2017 but Silva should freshen things up there. They should be more like 3.0 imo.

If Dyche leaves then Burnley they are virtually nailed on to go down, If Keane leaves it will be a big blow also. Their performances did not warrant the amount of home wins they got last season, finished the season poorly and just about stayed up. If there's one team you should be tracking closely in relegation market over the summer it's them. If Dyche stays and they invest in the squad then they will be a tough little team once again.

Bournemouth are long @ 7.0 while Pulis is the only thing that stands between West Brom fans and away trips to Burton Albion - lookout for any signs of discord between him and the WBA higher powers as WBA @ 7.0 is juicy in the event of disruption to the status quo.

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I'm a massive fan of Dyche. I was gutted when Mackay came to Cardiff without Dyche but it all worked out well for everyone in the end... except maybe Mackay! :lol

This next appointment is a massive one for you boys. Get it wrong and you could replace Sunderland as perennial strugglers. Get it right and you could be propelled to the next level. I think Dyche will be a huge coup. It seems Burnley are insistent on running an overly cautious ship and that might be enough to frustrate Dyche. If I was Parish, I'd look at Jokanovic. It might be a bit too much of a gamble though. Proven in the Championship but Premiership is a different game. For teams like Palace it's going to be a risk outside of the reliable likes of Pulis and Allardyce though. This is for a different topic though (which I shall get posted now!).

I think Brighton could be OK if they invest. Hughton knows his shit. Watford have a massive task ahead of them. As you said, Burnley are screwed if they lose Dyche and Keane. I think Swansea will be interesting this season. Big year for them. I never feel Stoke are safe under Hughes. I still feel he is a manager with huge weaknesses. How long can Howe keep delivering at Bournemouth? Leicester could also be one to watch. They got away with it this season but can they afford to leave it until late again next year? They will need to start well, for sure. 

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@Pep004 You could be right about Bertrand to City being 'fake news'. Looks like he creates a lot more chances than Man City's FB average from last season but his defensive contribution would have to improve a lot if Pep was going to play him imo. Walker on the other hand is a beast!

DBzCu2OW0AEm7oA.jpg:large

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Top 10 Finish – Crystal Palace @ 7.0 (Bet Stars)

I have to get on this one early as I don’t think the price will hold if Palace make a sound appointment and surely it will deteriorate as this market matures in any case?!?!

Bet Stars seem to be one of the first operators offering top 10 market for EPL and it looks like they’ve handed the task of setting the prices to a kid on work experience. The price disparity between some of the clubs is frankly hilarious when you compare it to the reality on the ground.

In my view there is very little daylight between the EPL’s mid-table sides (8th – 16th approx) and so you have 8 or 9 reasonably matched teams going for the remaining 3 positions in the top half. In my view the mid-table group should all be around 3.0 – 4.0 but instead we have a bizarre range with Leicester @ 2.25 and Watford @ 9.0.   

I feel Southampton are probably 8th best team in the league as things stand but question marks over manager, key players and club ownership means 1.47 for top half finish is too short at the time of writing this.

Ultimately Palace are 7.0 because they were involved in the relegation dog fight right up to the penultimate week of 2016-2017 and they currently have no manager. I agree with @StevieDay1983 that Palace have reached an inflection point but when you look at the quality of the playing squad and the fact that they do not need to rush new managerial appointment then I take the view they will compete for top 10 finish this campaign rather than another relegation dog fight.

Don’t forget Palace finished 4pts off 10th in 2016-2017, I don’t think 7.0 will hold unless they appoint a total clown. This to me is the first clear value bet of the new season. There’s no guarantee of success but make this selection 1000 times in these exact same circumstances and you should be in profit at the end of it. Bet Stars top 10 market seems immature here.

Edited by Mindfulness

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Yes, thanks @Mindfulness I am looking forward to seeing what the new season brings. We are all waiting to see what signings will be made over the summer, so I reserve judgment until then.

Looks like we are still waiting for your mob to appoint a manager. I heard last week that Stockdale is set to sign for you, which can only come down to money. Brighton will have made him a decent offer, but probably not as high as you would go.

I like the look of Bournemouth to get relegated at 7/1 at the moment. I have a feeling they will turn into the new Pompey, with a chairman spending foolishly on players before he invested in the infrastructure. If Howe leaves, then it will all fall apart there. I am convinced he will go to a better club sooner or later.

Burnley too, for similar reasons, especially if you appoint Dyche.

Dont forget that when Parrish says "Long term" he means 6 months max!

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2 minutes ago, Tiffy said:

Yes, thanks @Mindfulness I am looking forward to seeing what the new season brings. We are all waiting to see what signings will be made over the summer, so I reserve judgment until then.

Looks like we are still waiting for your mob to appoint a manager. I heard last week that Stockdale is set to sign for you, which can only come down to money. Brighton will have made him a decent offer, but probably not as high as you would go.

I like the look of Bournemouth to get relegated at 7/1 at the moment. I have a feeling they will turn into the new Pompey, with a chairman spending foolishly on players before he invested in the infrastructure. If Howe leaves, then it will all fall apart there. I am convinced he will go to a better club sooner or later.

Burnley too, for similar reasons, especially if you appoint Dyche.

Dont forget that when Parrish says "Long term" he means 6 months max!

Yeh fair enough mate, there's not much we can say in detail till August but try and follow the ante-post markets over the comming weeks if you can as they do produce some good opportunities here and there. Initial price errors don't last as the markets mature.

I haven't heard anything about Stockdale but I would not be suprised if we try and buy a keeper this window.

In Stevie P we trust.

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Stockdale to Palace? You can't be serious. Stockdale would be better off staying with Brighton and seeing how they do. Has Mandanda been injured? Hennessey is always class when playing for Wales (a trait of Welsh goalkeepers, we never have a poor one at international level... even if they are dodgy for their clubs) but he's had his fair share of criticism for Palace.

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On 13/06/2017 at 9:15 AM, StevieDay1983 said:

Stockdale to Palace? You can't be serious. Stockdale would be better off staying with Brighton and seeing how they do. Has Mandanda been injured? Hennessey is always class when playing for Wales (a trait of Welsh goalkeepers, we never have a poor one at international level... even if they are dodgy for their clubs) but he's had his fair share of criticism for Palace.

The Mandanda situation is weird. He did well for us initially then dropped a couple of clangers and 'got injured'. He didn't play for us again after that and it wasn't all to do with an injury. Hennessey's consistency and performances were not good enough until Allardyce took over and then he became much more assured, probably due to new coaching staff. The standard for first choice keepers in EPL is very high these days so I would expect Palace to be looking at this area. In defence of Hennessey he has improved, but can he stay improved?

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4 hours ago, Mindfulness said:

The Mandanda situation is weird. He did well for us initially then dropped a couple of clangers and 'got injured'. He didn't play for us again after that and it wasn't all to do with an injury. Hennessey's consistency and performances were not good enough until Allardyce took over and then he became much more assured, probably due to new coaching staff. The standard for first choice keepers in EPL is very high these days so I would expect Palace to be looking at this area. In defence of Hennessey he has improved, but can he stay improved?

Very interesting to hear. Have you heard anything from those "in the know" about Allardyce's relationship with Mandanda? I always thought Mandanda was a rival for Lloris for France number one?

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1 hour ago, StevieDay1983 said:

Very interesting to hear. Have you heard anything from those "in the know" about Allardyce's relationship with Mandanda? I always thought Mandanda was a rival for Lloris for France number one?

I think the Mandanda situation pre-dates Allardyce so a change of manager might not resolve the issue.

Yes, Mandanda was France's second keeper but I'm guessing that's not the case now since he's been out the game for months and months.

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@StevieDay1983 My thoughts on De Boer appointment:

Despite the fact he has won four Eredivisie titles with Ajax I think you could argue he is still relatively unproven as a manager. The best managers can adapt and become successful in different conditions and circumstances - the jury is still out on FDB in this regard.

His short time at Inter was indeed a disaster but I don't think we can read too much into that particular episode. Both the Milan clubs have operated like clowns over the last few seasons and I feel sorry for anybody who has had to manage them in that time. FDB himself said he will learn from his experience at Inter and in my view that whole circus couldn't all be down to him.

To be honest I don't think a coach of his pedigree and potential should be out of work for long. I agree that his appointment is somewhat of a gamble but on the flipside his appointment could be somewhat of a coup for Palace.

Despite all the talk of playing the Barcelona way etc, I don't think FDB is somekind of maniac idealogue, his time at Ajax shows he can be pragmatic with his tactics.

In my view; Palace need to evolve their possession game anyway as they've had the 3rd worst home record in the premier league for the last 2 seasons!!! and 5th worst the season before that - this cannot continue as eventually it will lead to relegation. With Frank De Boer I believe we will still retain and utilise our ability to make fast counters with Zaha and Townsend but the teams ability to retain the ball and pressure the opposition should advance with the new manager - both through coaching and new additions.

Money situation looks good for Palace going forward, I think we will be able to both attract and afford the talent that FDB requires.

All in all, pleased with the appointment, also good to get it done before July 1st so FDB can have full pre-season with the players.

Palace top 10 finish has gone from 7.0 to 4.0 on BetStars but I'm not tempted to cash out the profits yet. Probably best to stick with it as 7.0 was clear value bet and will be a big win if it lands.

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On 26/06/2017 at 3:08 PM, Mindfulness said:

@StevieDay1983 My thoughts on De Boer appointment:

Despite the fact he has won four Eredivisie titles with Ajax I think you could argue he is still relatively unproven as a manager. The best managers can adapt and become successful in different conditions and circumstances - the jury is still out on FDB in this regard.

His short time at Inter was indeed a disaster but I don't think we can read too much into that particular episode. Both the Milan clubs have operated like clowns over the last few seasons and I feel sorry for anybody who has had to manage them in that time. FDB himself said he will learn from his experience at Inter and in my view that whole circus couldn't all be down to him.

To be honest I don't think a coach of his pedigree and potential should be out of work for long. I agree that his appointment is somewhat of a gamble but on the flipside his appointment could be somewhat of a coup for Palace.

Despite all the talk of playing the Barcelona way etc, I don't think FDB is somekind of maniac idealogue, his time at Ajax shows he can be pragmatic with his tactics.

In my view; Palace need to evolve their possession game anyway as they've had the 3rd worst home record in the premier league for the last 2 seasons!!! and 5th worst the season before that - this cannot continue as eventually it will lead to relegation. With Frank De Boer I believe we will still retain and utilise our ability to make fast counters with Zaha and Townsend but the teams ability to retain the ball and pressure the opposition should advance with the new manager - both through coaching and new additions.

Money situation looks good for Palace going forward, I think we will be able to both attract and afford the talent that FDB requires.

All in all, pleased with the appointment, also good to get it done before July 1st so FDB can have full pre-season with the players.

Palace top 10 finish has gone from 7.0 to 4.0 on BetStars but I'm not tempted to cash out the profits yet. Probably best to stick with it as 7.0 was clear value bet and will be a big win if it lands.

Interesting thoughts mate. I have to agree. I think looking around there is not such a thing as a "sure-fire appointment" these days. The game is so competitive. Even for Big Sam it was not always inevitable you would survive. He managed it eventually but it was a tough one. I am amazed that your home record is so poor when your fans create such a good atmosphere. Do you think the players feel more pressure? It was like that for Cardiff City at Ninian Park. The place was hostile but if the pressure was on then the players would often crumble.

I am sceptical about De Boer but you could have done worse. He's clearly a thinking man and that's what you need. His lack of experience is rightly a concern. Striding to the Dutch Eredivisie title with a quality Ajax side is hardly comparable to battling for consolidation in a fierce Premier League. Who knows though? The likes of Southampton, Swansea, and Leicester have been equally shrewd with their appointment of foreign managers in the past and it's seen them well. It could well be the same for you guys. 

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19 hours ago, StevieDay1983 said:

I am amazed that your home record is so poor when your fans create such a good atmosphere. Do you think the players feel more pressure? It was like that for Cardiff City at Ninian Park. The place was hostile but if the pressure was on then the players would often crumble.

I think our poor home record was down to a number of things. First of all our playing style, which has generally been sit back and counter since we've been back in the EPL.

Pardew tried to evolve this into a more open and attacking style but it didn't really work for reasons too complex for me to get into. Pardew would also like to gamble by throwing the kitchen sink at the opposition if the game was level in the last 10 minutes, this backfired countless times and eventually the players lost confidence.

Essentially Palace need to improve in situations where they have to make the game.

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1 hour ago, Mindfulness said:

I think our poor home record was down to a number of things. First of all our playing style, which has generally been sit back and counter since we've been back in the EPL.

Pardew tried to evolve this into a more open and attacking style but it didn't really work for reasons too complex for me to get into. Pardew would also like to gamble by throwing the kitchen sink at the opposition if the game was level in the last 10 minutes, this backfired countless times and eventually the players lost confidence.

Essentially Palace need to improve in situations where they have to make the game.

Wales have got that problem at the moment. Teams have realised that when we are counter-attacking they just need to sit back and let us make the mistakes. It's a tough one to sort out. I think attacking play is the way forward. The way your squad is reminds me of how Blackburn were under Mark Hughes. They had creative wide players, a scorer up the middle, and an attacking threat down the middle. However, they still didn't have the best defence but I think you've done well to get Sakho on board. Add 1-2 of the right players and you could well finish top 10.

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  • Punters Lounge Forum Tips

    • 1.30 Ling  Makambe @ 6/1 coral 
    • Leicester vs Crystal Palace: Palace +1 Roy Hodgson saved Palace from the dead last season & has led them to a more stable position in the table in his first full season in charge and the odds for Palace to be relegated are now 30/1. Last season was not the only one when Hodgson saved a team from relegation coming midseason as he also did that in 10/11 with West Brom. The following season West Brom under Hodgson finished 10th with 13 wins/8 draws/17 losses and 7w/5d/7losses from the away games. Palace were also saved from relegation by Alan Pardew coming midseason in 14/15. The following season Crystal Palace finished 15th with 11 wins/9 draws/18 losses and 5w/6d/8losses from the away games.  Anyway, I went with the average of those 2 seasons and that suggests 2 wins, 3.5 draws and 0.5 losses from remaining 6 away Palace games (5w/2.5d/4.5 losses overall in last 12 matches).  Leicester also lost 3 games, drew 2 times and won just once vs the next 3 teams in the table last season(including 2 losses vs Palace). This season the Foxes have lost once and drew 2 times vs the next 3 teams in the table(including a loss vs Palace).
    • I also believe Barcelona is worth backing vs Seville especially as the Andalusian team has terrible form lately: 1 win & 3 losses from last 5(16th worst form) and 2 wins & 4 losses in last 10(14th worst form). Seville has only lost 1 game at home this season vs 3 last year and I think it is time Seville lose at home again. Barca have not impressed lately but I reckon the players will step up their game vs one of the big teams. Question for me is which team from Alaves and Getafe will take advantage from a potential Seville slip-up that opens the door for the 4th Champions League place? I reckon Getafe are more likely to win vs Rayo and go in fourth place. Odds are shortening, which is always a good sign, plus Rayo Vallecano's form has turned bad again - losing last 3 La Liga games after they won 4 and drew once. Rayo has won once vs Alaves, drew twice vs Real Sociedad and lost all other 5 matches vs teams fighting for that last Champions league spot(Seville, Getafe, Alaves, Sociedad, Betis and Valencia - teams from 9th to 4th all within 5 points). Meanwhile, Getafe won 5 out of 6 games vs bottom 3 last season. They have won only 3 and drew 4 times vs bottom 6 this year(more tight relegation battle that is why 6 teams), including an away 2:1 win vs Rayo. It is worth noting that only 2 of those games were at home for Getafe - a 3:1 win vs Celta and goalless draw vs Real Valladolid.
    • 10 unit bet Laslo Djere to beat Aljaz Bedene @ odds 2.10 with Pinnacle We have detailed analysis for this available for free on the internet if you want to go digging for it , but I prefer not to advertise that service in here in repsect for the forum, and Czech Punter's guidelines. 
    • Saturday 23/02/2019 Kempton 02:25 SONG FOR SOMEONE f/c. 8/1 stake = 5 pts EACH WAY   Fairyhouse 03:25 CHOSEN HOUR f/c. 3/1 stake = 10 pts WIN  
    • Wolverhampton 20.00  RAPID RISE  10/1 Bet365
    • :Torino vs Atalanta: Draw Since 16/17 Torino has averaged roughly 15 draws per season becoming the leader in Serie A for tight games without a winner with 41 draws in 101 games(11 out of 24 games this season) They have also averaged approximately 6 draws at home compared to 1 tie in 18/19 and that makes me think the Turin team will have plenty more draws at home this season. I have compared Atalanta vs Torino and Fiorentina since 16/17 cuz both teams finished each season as neighbours in the table. What stands out are 7 draws out of 10 games for Atalanta(2 wins vs Torino and 1 loss vs Fiorentina). Head to head stats show 18 draws in Turin, 25 losses for Atalanta and only 6 away wins. Frosinone vs Roma: Roma-1 Frosinone has lost 9 out of 10 games vs the top 7 teams in Serie A with a goal difference of 0:27. They had one goalless draw vs Milan when Milan with Higuain were failing to score in successive games. Frosinone are 5 points away from survival and are probably going back to Serie B next season. Roma are 3 wins on the bounce in all competitions and they won at home vs Frosinone 4:0. Roma has won all of their Serie A games vs Frosinone with a winning margin of more than 1 goal and 3 out of their 4 Serie A away wins this season were with difference +1.
    • Result Catterick 01:55 CAP DU NORD…..Non-Runner Chelmsford 07:45 LION HEARTED…..Abandoned - Power Cut Todays Profit =  + 0.00 pts Current Years Profit 2019 =  + 87.03 pts.   (Years Profit 2018 = + 90.52 pts.) (Years Profit 2017 = - 73.44 pts.) (Years Profit 2016 = + 437.86 pts.) (Years Profit 2015 = + 18.52 pts.) (Years Loss 2014 = - 30.20 pts.) (Years Loss 2013 = - 105.06 pts.) (Years Profit 2012 = +127.65 pts.) (Years Loss 2011 = - 13.82 pts.) (Years Profit 2010 = +166.01 pts.) Bank = + 2588.41 pts. Profit = + 2488.41 pts Current Winning Run =  5
    • Newcastle, 17:05, Dimple, 7/4 BV
    • More effective than ever seen in the season is Tottenham, who is still a key title contender. He is currently playing at Burnley's headquarters and if he succeeds in winning, he will temporarily reduce his distance from the top to the two. He may not let this opportunity go to waste
      BURNLEY FC vs TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR @@ TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR, odds 1.70
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