[Australian Jumps Season 2023]

A cracking 1st day with 3 of the 4 winners and I felt that if the horse in the 1st had been given a better ride he would have won as well. Day 2 sees a very competitive BM120 Chase and the feature hurdle of the week the Galleywood.

 

Race 4

I don't think I have seen a BM120 have a maximum field since I started betting on Aussie jumps racing so this feels a bit unusual for me. Tolemac has been very well backed in the early markets as he makes his chasing debut. He was fairly consistent over hurdles last season just winning the once at Hamilton on a Heavy 10 track so we know he will handle the ground. He's had a couple of solid runs on the flat for fitness and he jumped like a pro in his trial here a few days ago. I suspect he has been lined up for this given connections. His train has a strong hand though and Count Zero is next in the betting. He took the opening chase of the season at Terang when I took him on because I didn't like how he jumped in his trials, but he still just about managed to beat So Belafonte. He jumped terribly again to start with in the trial here last month behind Roland Garros, but he did improve as the trial went on. I suspect he will need to improve on that to take this especially off top weight. Speaking of Roland Garros he is also near the head of the market. He won on his chasing debut at Coleraine last August when going well clear and just holding on. It will be interesting to see if similar tactics are used here as I just wonder if he will see the trip out in this ground if he does. He disappointed a couple of weeks after that win when pulling up at Ballarat. 

 

Under The Bridge is the 3rd Wilde runner and I fancied him to win at Hamilton on his chasing return, but in the end he failed to see the race out well enough have travelled nicely into contention having been held up out the back. He should come on for that and he has won here on a Heavy 10 surface as well. I think he has the form to go well in this as well. Lord Pierro looks the other one to consider and he was even more impressive at his fences than Tolemac in the same trial here a couple of weeks ago. The problem is Tolmac did have more speed for him on the flat and I do wonder if he is going to have the ability at this stage to win a race like this. He's only 5 and only had 10 races and the testing ground is an unknown as well, but his jumping will likely take him a long way.

 

I'd be a bit surprised if anything else was able to win. The money for Tolemac is really interesting and I loved the way he trialed so I will have him as the main bet. I will also cover his stablemate Under The Bridge who should come on for the 2nd at Hamilton and at least we know conditions and track will hold no fear for him.

 

Tolemac 1pt @ 3/1 with Bet365

Under The Bridge 0.5pts @ 6/1 with Paddy Power and Betfair

 

Race 6

Saunter Boy won all 5 hurdle races he ran in last season including just getting up to win this contest. I thought he would cope with giving a huge amount of weight away to his rivals at Pakenham last month, but he couldn't quite see off Blandford Lad on the run to the line. Given this isn't a handicap he doesn't have to give anywhere near as much weight away to the 6 of the horses who ran that day and are also running in this. Based on that he really ought to have the beating of them. He is odds on, but he deserves to be odds on and I think he is still value at the current odds.

 

Saunter Boy 3pts @ 17/20 with Bet365

[Australian Jumps Season 2023]

Really looking forward to the next 3 days of action at Warrnambool and the jumping action looks full of quality which is great to see. Tomorrow sees 3 divisions of the maiden hurdle and the feature is the Brierly which looks a high class and open renewal.

 

Race 1

 

King's Charisma was trained by David O'Meara in this country and was a useful handicapper as well. Current connections paid £170k for him and whilst he's been running OK they would probably be a little disappointed that all he's done is win a Horsham Cup whilst in Oz. He's had 3 hurdle trials which have been fairly quiet, but he jumps well enough and flat wise he is the best of these. Vividredsky was 2^nd in a BM70 at Moonee Valley in February so also has a fair level of ability, but he hasn't won for over 800 days. He didn't run very well on the flat last time, but did win a hurdles trial prior to that. His jumping wasn't great to start with, but he did warm to the task. Pure Deal was 3^rd on hurdles debut last time at Pakenham and it was a solid enough run, but I do sense that King's Charisma would have been good enough to win that maiden. Summerhill looks a big price as he was better at Pakenham on his 2^nd hurdles start when 3^rd in the other maiden.

 

King's Charisma's connections will be hoping for a strong carnival and I think he can get them off to a get start given his flat class and I saw enough in his trials to think he is good enough to win this.

 

King's Charisma 1pt @ 5/2 with Paddy Power and Betfred

 

Race 2

Teofilo Star is the favourite here on the back of a very good hurdles debut at Pakenham. Not sure this race is any stronger than that and with him racing in the worst part of the track down the home straight he was probably a bit unlucky not to have won. Maher & Eustace have a couple in this and Reserve Street is the more fancied one in the market. He's solid enough on the flat and runs in a lot of the Cups at the Country tracks. I wasn't a fan of his jumping though in his last trial recently and that puts me off here. Aquileon is the other one from the stable and he had 4 starts for Roger Varian in 2020 without success. He's won 3 races in Oz and I did prefer his trial to his stablemates. Half Mast is interesting as he is a rare horse who has never run in a race before going jumping. His trial wasn't bad last time so he might be OK. Killourney managed a couple of placings in maiden hurdles last year and might be capable of better this time around. 

 

He is quite short, but Teofilo Star does look the most likely winner for me with him being a bit unfortunate not to win at Pakenham. I don't think this race is any stronger so will take him to go one better.

 

Teofilo Star 2pts @ 5/4 with William Hill and Coral

 

Race 3

Impulsar has been the big talking horse ahead of this as Eustace put it up as a horse to follow on Saturday. There was plenty to like in his hurdles trial at Terang as he jumped well on the whole and wasn't extended at all as he allowed the winner to go past him. He did start life in Ireland with Joseph O'Brian and won on his 2^nd start just 12 days after making his debut in October 2021. He went to Australia after that and has done well winning another 3 races in just 6 starts. He's by Frankel and he could turn into a top jumper. His stablemate Carisbrook might be the main danger as he has looked good in his trials, but clearly connections think Impulsar is the one to be with and I think he is going to be hard to beat.

 

Impulsar 2pts @ Evs with Paddy Power, Betfair, William Hill and Coral

 

Race 6

The feature race on day 1 is the Brierly and it is a cracking line up. Flying Agent has a cracking record over course and distance as he is 3/4 and he has a great record on a heavy track should they get lots of rain. He landed the Thackeray Chase here last July in really good style. He went on to win the Crisp Steeplechase at Sandown the following month and had Valac back in 3rd. After that he was beaten just 0.85L into 3^rd in the Grand National Chase at Ballarat. He has had a great prep run on the flat at Bendigo early this month and he then put in a very impressive trial here on April 21st. He has a big chance.

 

Inayforhay has only had one start over fences, but that was a win in the 2021 Grand National Chase so it was an impressive one. He then missed the whole of 2022 jumps wise and didn't return until November. He won at Bendigo in December and then he had another spell for 14 weeks. His flat run last month at Stawell looked a perfect prep for going back over fences, but I do wonder if he will need further. Even so he is still a possible winner here.

 

Like Inayforhay, St Arnicca took last season's Grand National Chase on his chasing debut. He had shown good hurdling form prior to that having finished 2^nd in the Grand National Hurdle. He's not shown a great deal so far on the flat this prep and was just fair in a trial on April 21st. Again, another with a chance, but he might need further.

 

Riding High has a very good jumps record winning 5 times for 11 starts and won on his last start over fences which came at Pakenham last April. Obviously injured after that and has had 4 flat starts plus a couple of trials this year to prepare for this. Another one with a chance, but I just wonder if he will be quite good enough.

 

Bee Tee Junior is a gallant old timer who ran well behind Stern Idol at Pakenham last time. I can see him running well, but I would be a little surprised if he was quite good enough.

 

Britannicus ran a huge race in this last year and it was a great battle between him and Vanguard who just got up in the final few yards to beat his stablemate. He build up a big lead and he didn't handle the bend well after the Tozer Road crossing which probably cost him. He won the Australian Chase after that, but then finished lame after the Thackeray so was spelled. He has had a couple of flat runs and a few trials as a prep for this and his last trial here was very good last the other day. I don't think he wants it very wet, but otherwise he has a good chance.

 

Valac is favourite at the time of writing and he was bang in contention in this race last year when falling at out. He then fell again at Sale, but finally won again at Pakenham in testing ground. He was 3^rd behind Flying Agent in the Crisp and then 4^th in the Grand National Steeplechase. I suspect he didn't quite stay in those two races and this trip is much more suitable. Sure to go close again if his jumping holds up, but I'm not sure I would have him as favourite.

 

We saw a fantastic race last year and this looks a wide open and classy affair. I am going to go with Flying Agent to win as he has a great record here and looks to have returned in great form based on his flat run and his trial. I would make him favourite myself. All the horses I have named above have some sort of chance, but I will cover Britannicus as well. It was a huge run in this last year and as long as the going doesn't get too testing I think he will be primed to run a big race.

 

Flying Agent 1pt @ 11/4 with William Hill

Britannicus 0.5pts @ 6/1 with most bookies

[Non-League Ante Post 2022/23]

7 hours ago, Labrador said:

Well done, Darran👍.

Hard to believe that both Gloucester and Kidderminster have made the play-offs😲 .

A very dramatic afternoon. Given we should have been in them with ease to then do it in the way we did was just incredible. As for Kiddie it is amazing as well given how poor you have been for most of the season. It sums the league up though because so many of the sides that were in play-off contention today have been pretty bad for a lengthy spell at one time or another. Whatever happens though I am just delighted we are in them.

[Non-League Ante Post 2022/23]

14 more points to add to the total after Fylde do the business (to win me a lot of money if you were following on Twitter!) and Kings Lynn finish 2nd which makes it a return of 85.25 to give a profit of 55 points. Quite a staggering return in what has been a rollercoaster few weeks where Tamworth especially looked like they had blown it.

[Darran?]

Yes I remember 5 years ago as well sorry didn't get chance to post as was so focused on Fylde winning the league to top 5 years ago and my own side Gloucester making the play-offs

[Racing Chat - Friday April 28th]

I rarely tip in Irish hunter chases, but we have the big one at Punchestown this evening and after the shambles of Premier Magic and Shantou Flyer not being allowed to run, we have an all-Irish affair. We have 4 runners from Cheltenham with the 2^nd Its On The Line, 5^th Chris's Dream, 7^th Vaucelet and Billaway who fell. The last two finished 2^nd and 1^st in this last year and whilst a mistake at the last didn't help Vaucelet, I still think Billaway would have won. I think Vaucelet can get his revenge here though and looks the most likely winner to me. Going into Cheltenham I was concerned with the fact he hadn't run since Boxing Day and I think that told late on. Also, as we have seen the trainer's horses haven't really been seeing their races off and it is interesting to see the trainer say he came back from Cheltenham a bit sick. Given that was the case and he was only beaten 10L it was a huge run really. 

 

Billaway finally hit the deck at Cheltenham after so many runs of making mistakes and not falling. He then went to Fairyhouse and was 2^nd to Annamix who caused a huge upset. I'm still not sure it was the pace that Ferns Lock and Billaway went that led to that result because Ferns Lock to me seemed to be doing what he had been doing the rest of the season. I suspect that he probably wasn't 100% and as I say the trainer's horses weren't finishing their races off. Granted Billaway might have paid for chasing him, but you just get the feeling he isn't quite as good as he was and I'd be a little surprised if Vaucelet wasn't able to finish in front of him. 

 

Its On The Line flew home to finish 2^nd at Cheltenham, but this won't be as strong a test of stamina and he has been to Aintree as well where he fell at Becher's after being well back in the field. I think Vaucelet can reverse the form.

 

I also think Chris's Dream can reverse the form and he might just end up being the biggest danger to the favourite. I thought he ran a cracking race at Cheltenham to finish 5th. That was only his 3^rd run since January 22 so he may come on for it again as well. His young jockey is yet to have a ride over fences under rules, but he has ridden A Dream To Share very well to win here and at Cheltenham.

 

Willie Mullins was shocked that Annamix beat Billaway and I'm not sure he will do the same here although it would be folly to totally rule him out. Lough Derg Spirit ran a cracker at Aintree when 3^rd to Famous Clermont. I'm not sure he can win this, but it wouldn't surprise me if he ran on into a place.

 

I'm going with Vaucelet to go one better than last year and finally give his trainer one of the big 3 hunter chases. I will also be having a small saver on Chris's Dream as there was plenty to like about the Cheltenham run and he could improve for it.

 

Vaucelet 1pt @ 15/8 with Bet365 and William Hill (take up to 6/4)

Chris's Dream 0.5pts @ 5/1 with William Hill and BetVictor who are 11/2 (take up to 4/1)

[Non-League Ante Post 2022/23]

Another 19 points added to the total with Tamworth winning the title today so returns are now 71.25.

[Non league predictions- Saturday 22nd April]

Wealdstone v Dorking

Wealdstone have only picked up one point in their last 7 games and you certainly get the sense they have run out of steam after their flirtation with the play-offs ended. If there was one game I would have said wouldn't have ended goalless it would have been Gateshead v Dorking although with the home side having an xG of 3.14 it clearly shows it shouldn't have ended 0-0. Whilst Dorking may have had some good fortune in getting a point, it did continue their superb run of form where they have only lost to Woking in their last 7, winning 5 of them. In that Woking game they were unlucky to lose as well. Even though they have secured a 2^nd season at this level I still think Dorking look value to win at a side badly out of form.  

 

Taunton v Worthing

Taunton have not played well in their last 2 games and Worthing look well placed to beat them. Taunton have lost 2-0 to Dulwich and 3-0 to Hungerford, both sides in a relegation battle and in the case of the latter more than likely to go down. Worthing still need 1 more win to be certain of a play-off spot and if they can get 5^th then they will be at home in the first round of the play-offs, so they have plenty still to play for. The other thing is they are clearly the better side so even money and a shade of odds on look worth taking. 

 

Alfreton v Blyth Spartans

A huge game for both clubs as the home side are trying to get into the play-offs and the away side are trying in the division. Alfreton drew against Gloucester last Saturday, but were very lucky to get a point and I was told by mates at the game that they looked very tired. They then went to Banbury on Tuesday night and again got very lucky to get another point. They have had a tough schedule trying to play catch-up on their games and Blyth are giving themselves a great chance of staying up. Their win on Tuesday at Farsley was huge as they are now out of the relegation zone on goal difference on the same points as Farsley. Farsley don't often lose at home so it was a very good win. If they can carry that form into this then I think they have a chance of beating an under performing Alfreton.

 

Southport v Kidderminster

6 defeats on the bounce for the home side and I really like Kidderminster here who look a great bet at odds against. Given how much they have struggled for wins and goals for most of the season it is rather surprising that they have managed to get themselves in with a chance of getting a play-off spot. They have only lost to Chester in their last 10 games and in that spell have conceded just 4 times. They have won 4 on the bounce including a huge 2-0 win at Fylde and they really ought to be winning this which may make things nervy for Southport depending on results elsewhere.

 

Carshalton v Wingate & Finchley (Isthmian Premier)

The home side have already announced that their manager is leaving after the season ends on Saturday. They haven't won in 6 games and they lost to Potters Bar last Saturday which takes some doing. I wonder how motivated the players will be given they don't have a manager to impress and with Wingate winning 3 on the bounce they might just have a chance of winning this.

 

Merthyr v Hayes & Yeading (Southern Premier South)

Hayes have had a really tough week. They beat Tiverton 7-0 on Monday, then had a cup final on Wednesday before going to Tiverton and drawing 0-0 on Thursday. That's a lot of football and with nothing on this game it would be no surprise if they are flagging a bit. Merthyr haven't played all week and on the whole they have been strong at home this season so I am happy to back them home team. Must admit I wasn't expecting the home side to be such a big price as I only checked Bet365 to start with and they are a fair bit shorter than everyone else.

 

Kings Langley v AFC Rushden & Diamonds (Southern Premier Central)

Two relegated sides and whilst Rushden conceded in injury time last week it still continued their good run. They did have to play on Thursday night and lost to Rushall which wasn't a huge surprise. Kings Langley haven't won in 7 games and have picked up just two points in that time. Rushden just look too big a price again to pick up a final 3 points of the season as they have been playing better than their hosts.

 

Nantwich v Radcliffe (Northern Premier)

Both sides need 3 points here as only a win will do for Nantwich in an attempt to stay up, but a draw on Thursday night has probably cost them their chance of survival. Radcliffe really should be in the play-offs, but too many draws has meant they are out of them on goal difference going into the final day of the season. That is highlighted by the fact they have lost 2 and drawn 4 of their last 6. I think they can win this though and possibly get themselves into the play-offs.

 

Dorking 1pt @ 2/1 with Paddy Power, Betfair and Coral (take up to 13/8)

Worthing 2.5pts @ 10/11 as sent earlier

Kidderminster 3pts @ 11/10 with Skybet, BetVictor and Betfred (take up to 4/5)

Wingate & Finchley 1pt @ 16/5 with Betfair and Paddy Power (take up to 9/4)

Merthyr 1pt @ 21/10 @ Betfair and Paddy Power (take up to 6/4)

Rushden & Diamonds 1pt @ 13/5 with Betfair and Paddy Power (BetVictor are 27/10 and take up to 15/8)

Radcliffe 1pt @ 5/4 with Skybet, BetVictor and Betfred (take up to 11/10)

[Non-League Ante Post 2022/23]

Weston and Bishops Stortford both won their leagues tonight and with Warrington having already been placed it means the total returns stand at 52.25 with the total stakes having been 30.25. There will be more profit to come as well as either Fylde or Kings Lynn will win the NLN and Tamworth will be placed at worse.

[Australian Jumps Season 2023]

13 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

Nice one @Darran, I can only bet with BET365 so had a winner with Hurry Cane and a place wirth Crosshill, nice bonus when I got up this morning

Must admit I have no idea why Crosshill has been confirmed as a place given the field went down to 7 and I was very surprised to see I had been paid out. I can only think that it in Australia the place terms when you put the bet on are honored, but I honestly don't know. Still I will take it and nice to have Hurry Cane win as well. Saunter Boy was a frustrating beat and Nelson was a deserved winner.

[Australian Jumps Season 2023]

The first all jumps card of the season comes from Pakenham and at this stage I have had chance to look at the non maiden races. Rather handily my mother in law lives in Pakenham and it was chucking it down with rain all Saturday evening and there is more rain planned during Sunday as well so I am expecting it to be Heavy ground.

 

Race 3

The first winner of 1 of the season and I would be a little surprised if one of the ex classy European horses didn't take this. It hasn't gone well for Port Guillaume since he moved to Australia from France and a G2 win at Deauville 3 years ago remains his last win. When he first moved he was running in the big races but was nearly last in the Melbourne Cup and it has been downhill from there. He went hurdling at the last meeting of the season and despite not jumping all that well, his flat class told late on and he was a good winner in the end. This prep he has had a flat run and whilst he finished last he was beaten less than 3L. He then trialled over hurdles and his jumping again left a little to be desired although he did show a nice turn of foot at the end. 

 

Nelson was trained by Aidan O'Brien and was last seen for him in the 2018 Arc when finishing 8^th behind Enable. He was then missing for a year and then ran 8^th in a G3 at Caulfield. He then changed yards and didn't run until February 2021 when he finished 5^th and 6^th in a couple of Listed Races. Since then he has had another change of yards and another massive spell. He had a jump out and two hurdle trials before running in the Stony Creek Cup where he was 6th. I thought he had trialled well over hurdles going into his debut at Warrnambool and he jumped well on the whole that day when making the running and whilst looking in a little bit of danger entering the straight, he kicked clear to win nicely in the end. He trialled over hurdles again at Yarra Valley and his jumping actually wasn't as good, but they didn't go very quick which I don't think helped.

 

Of the rest Cotton Eye Joe was quite well beaten by Port Guillaume at Ballarat last year and I'm not sure he's improved on what he's done this season. Fabalot bolted up on that Ballarat card, but it was a very weak contest so I wouldn't want to go overboard on that. 

 

Given we are looking at a heavy track and Nelson's only run on it was in the Ballysax Stakes back in 2018 when only 4 runners so I guess that is a little query whereas Port Guillaume's hurdles win was on a Heavy 10. I don't think there is as much between the two as the betting suggests, especially on the ground, so will have a small play on the ex-French horse

 

Port Guillaume 1pt @ 9/4 with William Hill, Paddy Power and Betfair

 

Race 4

Great to see the return of Saunter Boy who won this race last year and ended up being unbeaten in 5 races over hurdles last season. His rating obviously keeps going up and he has to give a lot of weight away to the rest, but I still think he will be hard to beat as he has trialled well and ran well on the flat at Bendigo as prep for this.

 

Instigator was solid enough when last seen over hurdles in 2021 before missing 2022. He has returned in good form on the flat in 2 runs this prep including last time. Didn't show his hand in his hurdle trials and whilst he may have improved since 2021 I think he will need to if he is going to beat Saunter Boy.

 

Heir To The Throne was 2^nd in his first two hurdle runs last year and then won two on the bounce, but as impressive as he looked, they were pretty weak contests. He certainly won't lack for fitness though as he has already run 7 times on the Flat this and has been running well in decent contests. I'd say it is more his flat runs that have meant he is the price he is.

 

It is hard to make a case for the others and I if he remains in the form he was in last year then Saunter Boy will be hard to beat.

 

Saunter Boy 2pts @ 5/4 with William Hill

 

Race 5

Some might well remember the name Rockstar Ronnie who was trained by Dan Skelton over here until being sold to go to Australia after winning a Warwick handicap just under a year ago off 129. He's got a decent level of form over fences in this country over mainly 2m2f to think he could do very well in Australia. The big concern for me though would be if the ground is confirmed as being very testing. He did win a novice hurdle on soft ground, but connections seemed very keen to keep him to better ground and the vast majority of his runs were on good ground. He was also a non-runner on soft ground so if the track gets into the heavy range then he might struggle.

 

I thought Under The Bridge was going to win at Hamilton, but he faded on the run-in after making his move at about the 800m mark having been held up off the pace. That should have set him up nicely for this nicely for this and given he won on a Heavy 10 last year he won't mind what the weather does.

 

They aren't messing around with sending Epizeel over fences after his two hurdle runs this season. He won first up in a maiden and then ran well enough to finish 2^nd last time. I watched his steeple at Yarra Valley and he jumped well enough, but he did make one very bad mistake. I'd rather watch to see how he gets on than back him in this.

 

In the same race Epizeel was 2^nd in I put up former New Zealand runner Hurry Cane and like Under The Bridge he loomed large only to get tired late on. He now goes over fences and he should have benefitted plenty from that run which should give him a good chance here.

 

I'd be surprised if anything else managed to win. It will be fascinating to see how Rockstar Ronnie matches up to the Australian chasers, but if it gets heavy then I think he is worth taking on and I will split stakes on Under The Bridge and Hurry Can who will both improve for their runs at Hamilton.

 

Under The Bridge 1pt e/w @ 15/2 with Betfred

Hurry Cane 1pt @ 18/5 with Bet365

 

Race 6

I've been really excited to see Stern Idol run over fences because his trails over fences have been really good. He came over from France and looked like the best jumper in Australia until Cheltenham 3^rd Bell Ex One came over and beat him at Ballarat. As well as looking good in his trials he even won on the flat at Sandown last time and it is no real surprise to see him long odds on here.

 

When Bell Ex One and Stern Idol were running last season I did mention that I thought we would see more European horses go over to Australia and as well as Rockstar Ronnie in the previous race we also see Crosshill here. He was trained by Jessica Harrington and was a winner at the Punchestown Festival a year ago when winning over hurdles over 2m4f. When I was looking back through his form though he beat Vanillier on his hurdles debut back in 2020 and ended up running the Grade 1 Novice over 3m at the Punchestown Festival that season and whilst he finished last behind Galopin Des Champs he was badly struck into that. He also ran behind the Cheltenham Gold Cup winner at Leopardstown in Christmas 2021 and he finished lame that day so again we can ignore the fact he was beaten 81L. Current connections paid £85k to take him to Australia which just highlights how much prize money can be won to cover that. He has had 3 runs on the flat and has run well to get his fitness up and there was plenty to like in his trail win over fences at Warrnambool where he beat Britannicus. 

 

Vanguard and Britannicus were 1^st and 2^nd in the Brierly last season and will no doubt be using this race as a stepping stone to that contest this year. Neither of those two are as good as Stern Idol and Crosshill for me though. I was all set to put up Stern Idol even at long odds on, but the value has to be with Crosshill who is an e/w price. His form in Ireland should mean he chould be one of the leading jumpers in Australia and given the flat runs for fitness he should be fit enough to do himself justice.

 

Crosshill 1.5pts e/w @ 8/1 with Bet365

[Aintree Foxhunters' preview]

As per the Cheltenham preview this year if you have enjoyed the preview and found it helpful then I am looking to raise some money to a charity close to my family's heart. As some will be aware my youngest son was born with what is still an undiagnosed illness and has various disabilities. Every Thursday he goes to a charity called Small Steps who work with children aged birth to 5 years who have cerebral palsy or other forms of motor impairment, syndromes or sensory impairment to help with their development and my son has benefitted a lot from the services that they provide. They need to raise £400,000 each year to survive. Obviously there is no pressure at all to donate, but if you can spare a bit of cash then it would be great if I help them raise some money towards their total.

The link to donate is https://fundraising.smallsteps.org.uk/donation/donate

[Aintree Foxhunters' preview]

Just the 2800 words to the Aintree Foxhunters' preview and quite a few of them are saved for the horse I think will win the race. Hopefully it will help you with you selection for the first race over the big Grand National fences this week.

Ami Desbois - Had some good form last season wining a good hunter chase at Newbury and then finishing 2nd at Cheltenham over a trip that was too short. This season he pulled up behind Fier Jaguen on his return at Chaddesley Corbett and then got very tired at Southwell when a well beaten 4th. Looks past his best and I suspect he will get outpaced.

Bennys King - Has more letters than numbers next to his name, but has looked very good in when winning two hunter chases at Hereford and Fakenham on Gold Cup day. He beat Magic Saint at Hereford and I think that is very strong form. He unseated in the Walrus when still going well at Haydock and then had little trouble beating a weak field at Fakenham. If he gets round he has place claims, but his jumping is a concern and he will do well to be in the front rank as he was in his previous 3 races.

Coastal Tiep - Been behind Vaucelet twice and then well behind Ferns Lock this season after missing the whole of 2021. He didn't jump that well at Thurles last time and whilst he was a 17L 4th in this in 2019 it is hard to se him improving on that this time around.

Cousin Pascal - Caused a massive shock when landing this at 66/1 in 2021, but was only 5th last year and he doesn't look in the same form coming into this year's race. He has won a couple of points, but he ran no sort of race when pulled up behind Bennys King at Hereford and then was a 41L 2nd to Espoir De Teillee at Leicester last time. Clearly he likes Aintree, but he I can't fancy him at all this year.

Dalahast - Been well beaten by some of these already this season and has no chance.

Dento Des Obeaux - Was being beaten in maiden hunter chases in 2021 before finishing 2nd a couple of times in handicaps off 104 and 95. Went missing for 569 days before return in February with 1 2nd in an Irish point. He then won a winner of two comfortably, but the 2nd has been beaten from a lowly mark over hurdles since. He then walked over before bolting up by 22L in a maiden hunter chase. As impressive as he looked at Thurles I do think that form is very weak and it turned out to be a real stamina test which is going to be very different to this.

Dieu Vivant - A horse who often flatters to deceive as he promises a lot more than he actually achieves. The only hunter chases he has managed to win is when he race has fallen apart and he couldn't not win and he has finished twice again already this season. Whilst I can't possibly have him winning this does look the type of race he could run OK in so I wouldn't be surprised if he did outrun his odds.

Dorking Cock - I suspect this test will suit him better than Cheltenham where he didn't really make much of an impact before pulling up. Even so it does tend to suggest he struggles at this level having been well beaten at Punchestown last year. If he could run up to his two efforts at Down Royal the last two seasons when winning and then just being pipped by Vaucelet then he would have a small chance.

Drop Flight – Had some useful form in France, but also had some wayward tendencies which he did show prior to the start on his UK debut at Taunton where he ended up finishing a fairly well beaten 3rd although he did at one stage look like doing worse than that. To be fair he has been well behaved since and was a staying on 2nd to Envoye Special before filling the same spot at Newbury. You wonder if the big crowd might affect him mentally, but I would imagine he will take the fences and he can finish about midfield.

Envoye Special – A quirky horse who tends to find little off the bridle. He was still able to win at Cheltenham last year when beaten fellow bridle merchant Envious Editor and then at Ffos Las when given a very good ride by James King. He was well beaten by Magic Saint at Wincanton last time though and that suggests he shouldn’t be good enough for this.

Famous Clermont – Turning for home at Cheltenham I thought he was going to finish 3rd at worse, but after getting a fantastic ride by Will Biddick, he just failed to see out the trip on the run-in and he slowed so much he ended up finishing 6th. Crucially though his jumping was very good and the best I have seen him jump under rules so hopefully the Grand National fences won’t be an issue although you never know if a horse will take to the fences until they try it. This shorter trip is ideal for him and I can imagine that he will settle in just behind the leaders before trying to pounce late on. If he is over his Cheltenham exertions, then I don’t see how he isn’t involved in the finish.

Fier Jaguen – The 2 best horses I have seen from the UK this season are Famous Clermont and Fier Jaguen. Obviously, the former could be seen by everyone, but Fier Jaguen will only have been seen by a few. I was lucky enough to see his seasonal return in person at Chaddesley Corbett over Christmas and his performance blew me away. It was just a staggering effort where he made all the running and to my eye wasn't exactly going quick, but he made every horse in the race pull up apart from 1 who plugged on for 2nd once the jockey saw others had pulled up at 2 out. The ground was only good to soft so it wasn't like it was bottomless conditions and it was a strong field. Ami Desbois tried to keep up with him and pulled up at 2 out, Al Shahir did the same and ended up bursting a blood vessel, Monbeg Chit Chat is a hunter chase winner and he was well beaten when he fell, Muckamore was a mid 120s horse under rules and he pulled up and finally Zee Man, who as has run well in a couple of hunter chases and won a point on Easter Monday, was another to pull up at 2 out. Some people tried to crab the performance because the time, but it didn't need to be for me to know what a good performance it was.

On his next start this season at Revesby Park I didn't have the fortune to be there, but I have watched the video and whilst there was only 4 runners he still faced some decent horses in the shape of Dundrum Wood and Pont Aven who was 6th at last year's Festival. Well Pont Aven tried to go with him, but ended up pulling up at 2 out whilst Dundrum Wood was beaten 60L in 2nd. He boosted the form at Alnwick as he won a couple of weeks ago. This time though he wasn't just visually impressive, he also clocked a very high speed figure. In the Go Pointing email which the official website send out for free each week they have a speed ratings section and his figure was 141 and the author had to go back to 2003 to find another rating as high as that.  

He was due to run in a hunter chase at Leicester last month, but the meeting was called off so instead he ran in another point at Ston Easton and again he was really impressive making all and beating Luke Harvey’s Notre Pari, who won on Easter Monday, by 25L and it could have been further. This time his speed rating was 140.

I backed him to beat Gats And Co at Chepstow on his only hunter chase so far, but he was just pipped in the final strides having jumped out to his right for most of the way. Clearly that is a concern here, but he is jumping straighter this season and he wings his fences so hopefully his jumping won’t stop him. What will help is that he will be making the running so will be out of trouble and it will just be a case if something is able to catch him on the run-in.

I K Brunel – Was given a fantastic ride by Izzie to beat Not That Fuisse at Taunton, but she was then unseated from him at the 10th at Cheltenham. As much as the ride was good at Taunton I did think it was a very good performance from the horse at the same time. That might be a blessing in disguise as he didn’t have a hard race at Cheltenham and this contest might be more suitable for him. Alan Hill has done well in this race before with Clondaw Westie and he has more class than that horse so he is a live outsider for me

Its On The Line – Ran a fantastic race to finish 2nd at Cheltenham behind Premier Magic, but everything points to him needing a test of stamina and whilst he might be running on again as he did at Cheltenham, it usually pays to be handy at Aintree so I suspect he will find himself too far back.

Latenightpass – Was 2nd in this in 2021 after finishing 4th at Cheltenham so connections decided to skip Cheltenham last year and just focus on this race and the plan worked a treat as he beat Cat Tiger to win. He has just been kept to points again and was beaten by Shantou Flyer at Chaddesley Corbett over Christmas before winning easily at Alnwick. Last month he made slightly hard work to beat Royal Chant by a neck, but it was only a 3 runner race which wont have helped. On what he’s shown so far this season he needs to improve a fair bit, but clearly he has been trained with this race in mind and whilst I won’t be backing him he has a leading chance.

Lough Derg Spirit – Was fairly decent for Nicky Henderson and did have one run for Paul Nicholls back in July 2020. Went missing after that until last February when hacking up in an Irish point. Been beaten on his first 4 starts this season though and only won a 3 runner point after that. Was flattered by his proximity to Ferns Lock at Gowran last time and he looks to have a bit to find for me.

Magic Saint – Got up to a mark of 159 when a handicapper and ran OK off 143 on his first run of the season in January at Wincanton. Was then switched to hunter chases and ran well to just be beaten by Bennys King at Hereford, before winning as he liked at Wincanton. This will be tougher, but he travelled and jumped really well at Wincanton and he wouldn’t be a surprise winner.

Matts Commission – Won a point last time, but as much as he has shown he might find a hunter chase at some point he has been beaten by horses who wouldn’t be winning this and will be outclassed here.

Not That Fuisse – Has done well since going hunter chasing winning 3 times last season and then winning first time up at Wetherby. Didn’t get the greatest luck or ride when 2nd to I K Brunel at Taunton, but he may not have won anyway. This sort of trip used to be ideal, but I think he needs a bit further now and his hold up style doesn’t usually work round the Grand National course. Also the softer the ground the lesser his chance.

Reikers Island – Finished a very creditable 7th in this race last year but was still beaten 39L and he was tailed off in a point last time so he is highly unlikely to improve on that 7th.

Rewritetherules – Wouldn’t win even if he started now.

Sir Jack Yeats – Been 8th and 6th in this race in 2018 and 2019 and then did well handicapping, but it is clear he isn’t the horse he was and was easily put in his place by Bennys King at Fakenham last time.

Sixteen Letters – A very likeable and consistent horse, but he was well beaten by Famous Clermont last May and then again on New Years Day and whilst he should get round he shouldn’t be good enough to play a part in the finish.

Step Back – Thought he ran very well at Taunton when 4th and looking like he needed a stiffer test of stamina which he got at Carlisle when finishing 2nd. He likes to make the running and I struggle to see him being quick enough to do so and that is going to harm his chances, plus he would probably rather they were running the Grand National trip.

Time Leader – Won as he liked in two hunter chases at Leicester and Stratford and whilst they were weak races it was hard not to be impressed. Quite why his trainer decided to run him at Carlisle 6 days after the Stratford run I don’t know as he looked on paper like he would be a non-stayer especially in the ground and that is how it proved. His trainer did cause a shock with Cousin Pascal and this horse is a really good jumper. Whilst I don’t expect him to be good enough, he will certainly run a hell of a lot better than he did at Carlisle.

Wagner – Did really well in the early part of last season for his previous connections, but he then found life a bit tough in the 2nd part of the season. Did win at 1/8 at Higham in February but has been well beaten either side of that and is unlikely to be fighting out the finish.

Winged Leader – Was very unlucky not to win the Cheltenham Festival Hunter Chase last season when just getting pipped by Billaway at the end. David Christie reported he had been slow to come to hand this season so he has been kept to points so far and he has won all 3. Couldn’t really do anymore than he has, but apart from first up where he just beat Cheltenham 9th Le Malin, he has had very little to beat. Clearly a leading candidate and he’s one of the best horses in the race, but not been a great few days for David Christie with Ferns Lock and Ultimate Optimist both defeated.

Write It Down – Got lucky when winning at Cartmel last year as the first past the post was disqualified for losing its saddle cloth and would need even Foinavon type luck to even get close to winning this.

Verdict – Ever since I saw Fier Jaguen win at Chaddesley Corbett I thought he could win one of the big races and I am very confident that he is going to be hard to beat in this. His stablemate of course won the Cheltenham version, but I think Fier Jaguen is better than him and he can provide his connections with the Cheltenham and Aintree double. His main danger has to be Famous Clermont and it makes sense to cover him as well because for me they are the best two horses in the race. If he is over his Cheltenham effort then this race looks ideal for him and he will be involved in the finish.

Of the others Winged Leader looks easily the best of the Irish, but I’m not sure he’s as good as the two mentioned above. Latenightpass has to be respected given his record in the race and it would be no surprise to see him in the first 4 again. Magic Saint and Bennys King chances are respected as well.

At bigger prices a couple make appeal to outrun their odds. I K Brunel should be capable of running a good race and might be one to run into a place. The sneaky one though at big odds could be Time Leader. His trainer has already won this race with a 66/1 shot and Time Leader is such a good jumper of fences that I think that can take him a long way. I’m not sure he will be quite good enough to win, but you can put a line through his Carlisle run and this will be much more suitable.

Fier Jaguen 4pts @ 6/1 with William Hill, Paddy Power, Betfair, BetVictor and Betfred

Famous Clermont 1pt @ 5/1 with Bet365 and most other bookies

[Racing chat -Saturday 8th April]

Big day of racing in Australia with Day 2 of The Championships at Randwick and one of the leading fancies for the Melbourne Cup returns at Sandown. Plenty of ex Europeans as well as current Europeans are in action as well.

 

Randwick R7 

The Syndey Cup is a G1 over 3200m and the interesting thing to note is that 20 of the last 22 winners have carried 55.5kg or less to victory. It would be a huge effort if last year's Melbourne Cup winner Gold Trip were to land this carrying 59.5kg, but he clearly deserves it given his class. He ran a nice prep race for this to be fair last time and we know the trip and ground will be fine. I'm not sure he's handicapped to win, but I can certainly see him running well and possibly hitting the frame. Him being in the race though means all the others apart from Knights Order have to carry 55kg or less. His prep run came in the Tancred and that race was won in good style by Araphao who has a very nice weight here given the Tancred was WFA and he gets plenty of weight from Gold Trip who he beat. He was only 11^th in the Melbourne Cup at huge odds, but he was settled right out at the back and didn't really have a hope from there. He enjoys a wet track and he has to be a player. 

 

Joeseph O'Brien runs two here, but clear preference is for Cleveland who ran a huge race to finish 5^th in the Tancred on his first start in Australia. He was trained by his father when winning the Chester Cup last May and he then ran a cracking race to finish 2^nd at Royal Ascot. It's staggering how he has got in on such a low weight and whilst the draw of 17 isn't ideal he does have Kerrin McEvoy on top which is a big tick. He won his maiden on heavy ground at the Curragh so there are no worries on that front and he has to have a big chance if he backs up his Tancred run.

 

King Frankel was 3^rd in the Tancred and got racing plenty soon enough so it was a big run. It is no surprise he is near the head of the market on the back of that effort. 

 

A few of these ran last week over 2600m here and I think High Emocean can be the best of them here. She was still in last passing the 600m marker and hit the line very strongly to end up finishing 4th. She was 3^rd in the Melbourne Cup last year and that run last week was her best run of the prep so far. We know she handles quick backups as she won the Bendigo Cup 6 days before the Melbourne Cup and she has won twice on heavy ground as it was last weekend. She doesn't have a great draw, but surely must be capable of going close if overcoming that.

 

Cleveland does look the one they have to beat for me as he looks very well handicapped on his UK and Irish form and ran a perfect prep for this in the Tancred. I will also be backing the winner that day Arapaho who also looks like he could be well handicapped on the back of that effort. Finally High Emocean is the other one I will be backed. She ran a huge race last week and can go close on the 7 day back up just as she did at Flemington in November.

 

Cleveland @ 7/2 with Paddy Power, Betfair and Unibet

Arapaho e/w @ 12/1 with William Hill

High Emocean e/w @ 111 with William Hill and Unibet

 

Randwick R8

The Queen Elizabeth Stakes is a G1 over 2000m and after William Haggas won it a couple of times with Addeybb he has sent Dubai Honour down to try and win it for a 3^rd time. Addeybb was going up against Australia's best WFA horse at the time in Verry Elleegant and this year Dubai Honour is going up against the current best Australia has to offer in Anamoe. Anamoe has done me a few favours including in the Cox Plate last year where he won on a Heavy 8 track and he is likely to face similar conditions here if not worse. As much as I really like him though I do think Dubai Honour can beat him. I don't think he was at his best last summer and his trainer has basically said as much, but he knows the type of horse to send for The Championships and he looks to have got it spot on again with Dubai Honour because he was so impressive when winning the Ranvet a couple of weeks ago. He showed a superb turn of foot to put the race to bed and he beat the 2^nd Montefilia by further than Anamoe has beaten him by. With him due to be even better suited by the testing ground on Saturday than the Good 4 ground he had in the Ranvet I think Anamoe will be doing very well to beat him. You always have to respect Japanese horses on the world stage and Unicorn Lion represents them here, but he looks far from being one of their best and I'd be a bit disappointed if he won this. Alenquer is a former stablemate of the favourite and won the G1 Tattersalls Gold Cup at the Curragh last year. He then struggled a bit in top G1 events although the 9^th in the Arc wasn't a bad effort. He was last in the All Star Mile on his first start in Australia, but I suspect he is better than that and could put in an improved showing. Ultimately though I think Dubai Honour is a fair bet to get the better of Anamoe and the rest.

 

Dubai Honour @ 11/8 with William Hill

 

Randwick R9

The final G1 on the card is the Queen Of The Turf over 1600m and it sees the Australian debut of Alcohol Free and if she is ready 1^st up I think she will be very hard to beat here. Her form looks to be above the form of her rivals here and she is proven on heavy ground having won the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot in 2021 when it was really heavy. So 1600m in heavy ground should hold no fears, but as she showed when landing the July Cup last year, she clearly has plenty of pace as well. She has trialled well so hopefully she is ready to go and stall 2 should be helpful as well. Hope In Your Heart looks to be the main danger based on her run in the Doncaster Mile last week. She was in last place for most of the way and had only moved to 15^th passing the 400m yet was 4^th at the line and it was a huge run. If she can back that up then she won't be far away.

 

Alcohol Free @ 9/4 with William Hill

 

Sandown R8

The Easter Cup is a G3 contest over 2100m and the track is currently a Good 4 with rain forecast. There are some ex British and Irish horses in this and it is the ex Joseph O'Brien trained White Marlin which is the one I like here. He won a couple of races at Dundalk before heading to Australia and he was really impressive in racking up 3 wins at Rosehill, Caulfield and Flemington over distances ranging from 1800m - 2800m. That Flemington win was on Melbourne Cup day and I was so impressed with his performance in that contest that I backed him for this year's Melbourne Cup on the back of it. He wont mind what the weather does given it was a Heavy 8 at Caulfield and it was a Good 4 when he won at Rosehill. If he comes back this prep in the same form he was in on his last one then I think he is going to be hard to beat here with only 54kg on his back. The obvious danger looks to be Right You Are who missed the Australian Cup a couple of weeks ago for this. He has won 9 of his 20 starts including his last 5 and was impressive at Flemington last time. Ex Japanese Sparkle is also respected as she has won her last two races both at Flemington and there was plenty to like about how she won last time. This is tougher and she is an unknown on wet ground, but looks to be improving. It wouldn't be a disaster Melbourne Cup wise if White Marlin was beaten here, but it does look a great opportunity for him.

 

White Marlin @ 7/4 with William Hill and Unibet

[Non-League Predictions - Good Friday]

Aldershot v Yeovil

Aldershot aren't great as one win in 9 would suggest, but Yeovil are worse and with a new manager in place at Aldershot they really ought to be beating a Yeovil side who look to have given up. They showed little fight against Southend last week and then showed even less against Gateshead on Tuesday night as they loss 4-0, a result which was fully deserved. Mark Cooper basically had a pop at everyone in his interview after the game and even if he does leave before this game the new person doesn't have the players at his disposal to make much of a difference for me. I wouldn't want to chase the price down too much, but it ought to be a home win.

 

Gloucester v Banbury

We were very unlucky not to get paid out on the Under 2.5 goals and draw bet in the Southport v Banbury game on Tuesday. Having seen the Banbury 2^nd goal I have no idea what the Southport defender was doing as the shot was going wide with no danger of a Banbury player getting to the ball before it goes out. Instead of leaving it he decides to pass it into the goal. Anyway, I don't think Banbury will give Gloucester too many issues on Friday. This is a must win for Gloucester if they are to get into the play-offs and they really ought to win this. Gloucester have still to lose at home this year. Banbury's win on Tuesday meant they got up to 50 points and that should be enough to see them safe so there isn't so much riding on it for them.

 

Kidderminster v Buxton

Yet again we get to a Kidderminster game where the odds make little sense. Buxton are a huge price here to win this given the run of form they have been on which has seen them enter play-off contention. Kidderminster's home performance's have been embarrassing all season with them only getting 19 points at home and only relegated Telford have done worse. Scoring goals has been the big problem and they have only scored 16 at home. Blyth are the only side they have beaten at home in their last 10 home games and how on earth they can be odds on to beat a side on such a good run of form is just stupid, but then Kidderminster have been stupidly priced for most of the season.

 

Slough v Chippenham

A few weeks back I was backing Chippenham without success as they kept drawing, but their win against Farnborough on Tuesday night made it 15 games unbeaten and they are now well clear of the relegation zone. Farnborough did have an xG of 3.57 in that game and they did crash the bar from about 5 yards before the same player headed it over from the same place about 5 seconds later which was a fair portion of that number. Slough aren't as good as Farnborough and often don't create a great deal. Chippenham are the better side for me and look a fair bet here.

 

Aldershot 2pts @ Evs with Betfred (take up to 4/5)

Gloucester 3pts @ Evs with Betfred and William Hill (Skybet are 11/10)

Buxton 3pts @ 13/5 with Betfred (William Hill are a huge stand out at 3/1 and take up to 7/4)

Chippenham 1pt @ 9/5 with Skybet, Paddy Power, Betfair and Betfred (take up to 6/4)

[Australian Jumps Season 2023]

San Remo won last week although there was a big R4 so that didn't help things. Hamilton is the venue on Sunday morning with two divisions of the maiden hurdle, a handicap hurdle and a handicap steeplechase.

Race 1

Cotton Eye Joe looked the winner at Terang, but Laybuy came pass him almost right on the line. He didn't jump the last two hurdles especially well and basically that was the difference between winning and losing. The winning time was 8.5 seconds quicker than the other division and I do think it was the stronger race. Summerhill has been running OK on the Flat, but I didn't like the shape he was making over his hurdles in his last hurdle trial. Thinking Man won a maiden on the flat 10 days ago at Mornington and ran in hurdles trial just on Thursday, but I wasn't overly impressed with what I saw. Toyetic is 2nd on the betting, but I didn't think there was a great deal of promise in his Warrnambool effort last week.

I thought the race was between Cotton Eye Joe and Lord Goldberg so with the latter out of the race I do think Cotton Eye Joe really ought to be hard to beat in what isn't that strong a race now.

Cotton Eye Joe 2pts @ 11/10 with everyone

Race 2

Duke Of Bedford was a 3/4L 2nd to Epizeel on his hurdles debut at Terang and whilst I don't think it was an especially strong race, neither is this, and  I don't think he was suited by the slow tempo and the sprint at the end as he was finishing his race off well. Flying Pierro ran in the steeplechase at Terang, but was a well beaten 3rd there. He was a close 2nd on his last hurdle start at Warrnambool last June, but he does seem to be building a frustrating profile. Praise The Power won his last hurdles trial a month ago, but I'm not sure the others were trying overly hard in it and his flat career is 1 win from 51 starts. He also finished last in a flat race last 9 days ago. Peace Process ran well enough when a close 5th behind Epizeel in the Terang race and can build on that. Rising Renown and Ourkhani are both short in the betting, but neither make huge appeal for me. 

I guess you always have to be slightly wary about hurdling newcomers, but none of those took the eye in the trials so I will stick with Duke Of Bedford who can go one better than at Terang.

Duke Of Bedford 1pt @ 17/10 with Bet365

Race 3

El Diez, Dr Dependable and Sky Hero all ran in the BM120 at Terang and they finished 2nd, 3rd and 4th. I suspect El Diez will come out on top of those 3 again as I think Sky Hero needs more experience as he was still novicey that day and Dr Dependable might need another run at least. Epizeel runs in his first handicap and maiden winners can tend to struggle on their first start out of maiden company and he did benefit from getting an easy lead and his jockey could dictate things from the front. However I do think he will continue to improve and this isn't a strong race. Hurry Cane is an interesting horse as he has come over from New Zealand and his owners want to aim him at the Grand Annual. He's been running in Group races on the flat and whilst being outclassed it he is clearly the best flat horse of these. He won a maiden hurdle on his 2nd hurdle start last July and whilst that was only over 2500m, he clearly stays better if they want to run him in a Grand Annual. He trialed over fences on Thursday and I think they will want him to go close here to help get his rating up a bit.

As much as I'm not a huge fan of backing a horse in handicap company after a maiden win, especially in a maiden that wasn't that strong, clearly Epizeel has a chance in a race like this. I am though going to go with Hurry Cane who is the best of these on the flat and is clearly highly thought of if the Grand Annual is the target.

Hurry Cane 1pt @ 8/5 with Bet365

Race 4

The two Pateman runners Mapping and Laylite have both got awful first up records so I am happy to take them on here although Laylite especially would be good enough to win this on his best chasing form of last season. Tamarack has some useful hurdle form and ran OK in the Grand National Chase at Ballarat last August. That is is only chase start and he has had 3 flat runes for fitness last month. He has a chance here and would be the pick of the Musgrove runners, Cheners and Coleridge being the other two, for me. So Belafonte ran a huge race at double figure odds for us at Terang and was only beaten a length at the end. He has jumps fitness on his side here although this race does have more depth to it for me. Blood And Sand was finishing behind Under The Bridge last season and I don't think he will reverse form here. That brings me to Under The Bridge whose jumping let him down to start with last season as he fell at Warrnambool when bang in contention in May and then made a mistake back their the following month which cost him badly. He finally got it all together on his next start and won well. Was a good 3rd at Pakenham in a decent race after that before disappointing on his final start at Coleraine. He has has 2 jump outs a flat run and a steeple trial on Thursday to get him fit for this and that should mean he has done enough to run a big race here.

So Belafonte ran well at Terang and does have the recent run over fences edge on the rest of the field, but Under The Bridge is a very good horse whose jumping improved as the season went on and I suspect he will be using this as a nice prep race going into one of the big Pakenham races in a couple of weeks time. With plenty of the other possible winners not having great 1st up form I think he will be quite hard to beat in this.

Under The Bridge 2pts @ 9/5 with Bet365, Paddy Power and Betfair

[Racing Chat-Friday 31st March.]

Beneficio is back in action this morning in R7 at Cranbourne which is due off at 11.15 so a nice sensible hour of the day for a change. Here are my thoughts on the 0-64 contest.

Clap - Got a very good 1st up record having won 2 and finished 3rd once in 4 attempts. Won at this level 1st up last prep at Sale over this trip as well. Followed that up with a good 2nd at Sandown on is next start. Had two good jump outs leading into this, but did bleed on his last start when last at Sale in September.

Our John Boy - Good running on 2nd in a BM64 at Moe 1st up last month, but last on his last start at Ballarat when the jockey felt the horse was uncomfortable in its action, but there was nothing wrong. Looks a solid enough horse and can go well.

Abaddon - Went down to BM58 grade at Mornington last time and ran OK in 3rd after being a little unlucky in not finishing 2nd. First try at the trip so that looks a positive although this is now a better race.

Big Watch - Good win in maiden company at Kilmore 3 weeks ago on his 4th start. 2nd has won since so form has a solid look to it and will be interesting to see how he gets on in a handicap for the first time.

Breaking Ground - Impressed over 1200m when winning on 2nd start at Mornington, but not been so good in 2 runs since although did have a heart issue after only beating 1 home over 1400m here in October. Also respect a horse from the Waller yard, but want to see how he goes 1st up here before backing him to win.

Chaseton - Won on debut on a Heavy 10 at Geelong in June and was OK in a open 2yo race at Flemington on his next start. Got very tired 1st up 3 weeks ago though at Echuca and got questions to answer on the back of that as he should have gone better.

Beneficio - She continues to be in really good form at home and is running really consistency without winning. She seems to have lost a bit of speed from the gate and the step up to 1200m and being held-up worked in a way that wouldn't have seemed possible a few starts back as she finished off her race really well at Yarra Valley 2 weeks ago. The draw isn't ideal, but now we know she doesn't have to lead them hopefully she can get a good position and finish off her race as well as she did the last time.

Pretty Tavi - Won on debut at Mornington over 1200m and then 9th in a Listed Race at Moonee Valley. Returned with a very good 2nd at the same track last month, but was only 4th of 6 again at The Valley nearly a month ago. She was pressured on the lead that day though which wouldn't have helped her and she certainly looks to have the most potential of these if able to take advantage of the inside draw.

Liberty Fire - Not been great in both starts this prep and likely to struggle here.

Startide - Finished lame last time which was her first run since November. Only a maiden winner and doesn't look quite as good as some of these.

Verdict - A competitive little race and I do hope Beneficio can get another win on the board given how well she has been running in defeat. She has as good a chance as anything here and is worth an e/w bet. I do think Pretty Tavi is the most likely winner though as the form of her 2nd 1st up is strong and she is the one who has the potential to be better than this grade.

Pretty Tavi to win

Beneficio e/w

[Non-League Predictions - 25th March]

Altrincham v Southend

I'm keen on the home side here who are usually much better at home than they are away, indeed they have beaten Woking 3-1 and Solihull 4-1 in their last two home games. They were a little unfortunate not to get something out of the game at Eastleigh last week and a gift of an own goal for Eastleigh's opener didn't help. Southend are on a shocking run of form at the moment having lost 5 on the bounce and their last win was against Torquay. I nearly opposed them last Saturday, but wasn't sure Aldershot would be good enough to beat them, but in the end they totally outplayed them and fully deserved the 2-1 win. I'm always slightly loathed to call a team a one man side, but losing Lopata at the back has been a huge reason for me as to why they have started losing games. I'd make Altrincham clear favs for this game so they look a nice bet.

 

Kettering v Darlington

Happy to carry on with the backing Kettering at home theory especially as Darlington's form is not good at the moment. Darlington did deserve to beat Hereford last Saturday, but they then went and lost 3-1 to Farsley on Tuesday night and that Hereford win is their only victory in 8 games. There isn't a huge amount in it, but enough to make me back the home side.

 

Kidderminster v Alfreton

Kidderminster have managed to draw 4 of their last 5 games, but as you know by now I am always happy to oppose them at home. Gloucester were poor last week, but Kidderminster still managed to only score 1 goal against us and conceded late on to blow the victory. 5 goals in their last 10 games tells the story. Alfreton have only lost to Fylde and Scarborough in their last 8 games are right in the play-off picture so look a big price to pick up 3 points here.

 

Chippenham v Eastbourne

It has been 11 games since Chippenham last lost a game which started with a 0-0 draw against champions elect Ebbsfleet. They drew 6 games on the bounce and then have followed that up with 5 wins on the bounce. Eastbourne as we know aren't the most consistent side in the division and with Chippenham in the form they are I think they can win this.

 

Hampton & Richmond v Farnborough

As I mentioned last week Hampton have really improved for a change of manager and whilst Farnborough are a good side they have only managed 3 wins in their last 10 games and their good form prior to that has left them a bit. I would make Hampton slight favs for this to continue their superb form.

 

Welling v Bath

Bath let us down last weekend, but I will take them to win at Welling tomorrow afternoon. Welling started off the season well, but it has been pretty dire for a while now and they find themselves just 5 points about the relegation zone. Bath's away form has been better than their home form and they have basically had the opposite season to Welling's with them being just 2 points outside the play-offs. Welling have not won in 8 games now and I with Bath only losing 4 times on the road I fancy an away win.

 

Hitchin v Stratford (Southern Premier Central)

Just the one bet in Step 3 this week and I like Stratford to beat Hitchin here. Bizarrely Stratford's last defeat came to bottom side Rushden, but since then they have been unbeaten in 7 games which included two 1-1 draws against title chasing Leiston. They look like they will be capable of staying outside of the relegation zone now they have got themselves out of it. They travel to a Hitchin side who haven't managed to win in 9 games and whilst they have drawn 5 times they did lose to Hednesford last Saturday.

 

Altrincham 2pts @ 17/10 with William Hill, Ladbrokes and Coral (small bit of money at 2 on Betfair take up to 5/4)

Kettering 1pt @ 2/1 with Paddy Power and Betfair (take up to 13/8)

Alfreton 2pts @ 11/4 with Skybet, Paddy Power, Betfair and BetVictor (take up to 15/8)

Chippenham 1pt @ 8/5 with Bet365 (take up to 11/8)

Hampton & Richmond 1pt @ 15/8 with Betfred (take up to 6/4)

Bath 1pt @ 7/5 with Paddy Power and Betfair (take up to 6/5)

Stratford 1pt @ 7/4 with Paddy Power and Betfair (take up to 6/4 and Skybet are 15/8)

[Australian Jumps Season 2023]

Out of luck last week with a couple of frustrating 2nd. Thursday we are off to Warrnambool for the first time this season with 3 jumps races on the card

 

Race 1

 

Nelson might be familiar name as he was trained by Aidan O'Brien and was last seen for him in the 2018 Arc when finishing 8^th behind Enable. He was then missing for a year and then ran 8^th in a G3 at Caulfield. He then changed yards and didn't run until February 2021 when he finished 5^th and 6^th in a couple of Listed Races. Since then he has had another change of yards and another massive spell. He has had a jump out and two hurdle trials before running in the Stony Creek Cup last week. He was 6^th in that and it was a solid enough run which he clearly is going to benefit from. What I think is more important though is his hurdle trials. His 2^nd was here and I really liked the way he attacked his hurdles. He is the best of these on the Flat.

 

Toyetic is a stablemate of Nelson and has won 5 times on the Flat. He's been well beaten in both Flat starts this year, but did win both his hurdle trials. He jumped well enough, but I wouldn't say as well as Nelson and his trial at Warrnambool was way slower than Nelson's. I'd say the fact Pateman is on Nelson is proof that he is the stable's first string.

 

Rudimental was useful enough when he first came over from France and had a couple of decent showings last April including a 3^rd in the Terang Cup. He has really lost his form since then though and has struggled to even beat a horse home. Dropped all the way into BM58 company at Ararat last time and was only 5th. He did win his hurdle trial last time which was certainly a step in the right direction and that he might find some form over hurdles.

 

Zoffany Rocket and Buffalo Bill were both 3^rd last week at Terang. The former was well beaten in much the quicker division whereas the latter stayed on to be beaten a length in the slower division. Both are long term maidens though and I think they will struggle here. Armansky has been well beaten in weak flat races this year and might struggle here.

 

Nelson is long odds on here which is no surprise and he should win. Whilst I suspect a Maher 1-2 is the most likely result I am happy enough to leave the race alone from a betting perspective.

 

Race 2

This looks a pretty weak handicap hurdle and last week's Terang winner San Remo must have an excellent chance of following up. He did have the perfect run that day just sitting off the pace and then being sent on as they left the back straight. It was a good ride, but this race doesn't look any harder and I think he can beat the Musgrove 3. Youl Dash For Cash hasn't been seen over hurdles since he won at Morphettville in 2019. He was off until January 2021 had 3 Flat starts and then only had a couple of jump outs last year. This year he had 2 jump outs before a couple of Flat runs were he only beat 1 horse home each time. He's had two hurdle trials which were OK and then was a well beaten last at Stony Creek last week. He's 11 now and whilst he might improve for going back over hurdles I would rather see how he gets on first. Onset finally managed to win over hurdles last season when winning at Casterton and went on to win two more times at Sale and again at Casterton. He's had some trials and a couple of Flat runs and is a fairly solid horse, but I suspect he might need another run or 2 to get up to fitness. Good old Cheners was 3^rd in this race last year and the fact he has only won twice in 31 jumps starts tells you how hard he finds it to win. Outside of the Musgrove horses there is just Epizeel who won the 2^nd division of the maiden at Terang last week. I think that is weak form though and San Remo's winning time was over 2 seconds quicker.

 

There is little between the two Terang winners at the head of the market, but I would have San Remo further ahead myself so happy to back him to follow up that win.

 

San Remo 1pt @ 7/5 with Paddy Power

 

Race 3

Police Camp ran a hell of a race to finish 2^nd in the Grand Annual over 5500m here last May, but that just highlights he needs a stamina test and I suspect connections are working him towards peaking him in May rather than March. I thought Historic had a chance last week at Terang, but he was already finding himself outpaced when he was severely checked avoiding a faller at the 4th. Given how far back he was I find it hard to back him here and looks a bit short in the market. Mighty Oasis dropped away very tamely last week in the BM120 Hurdle after making the running. He trailed well enough over the fences here prior to that so might improve here, but he looks very short in the betting at 10/11. The Beehive did show a little promise in 4 hurdle stats to date and was solid enough on the Flat at Pakenham last time. He trailed here prior to that and it was an interesting run as he started off out the back and then made up plenty of ground to end up joining the front two who were well clear. He certainly seemed to take well to the larger obstacles. 

 

With Rexmont a non-runner it might mean Mighty Oasis gets a fairly easy lead and that might be key, but he dropped away very tamely last week and I just can't make him an odds on shot to win this. Historic does have the ability to win this, but I didn't like the way he was so far back at Terang before being forced out of the race. With Police Squad needing a stronger test of stamina that leaves us with The Beehive. Based on his trial here he might just turn out to be a better chaser than hurdler so I will take a chance on him being able to win this on his chasing debut.

 

The Beehive 1pt @ 7/2 with William Hill and Betfred

[Road To The Cheltenham Festival Hunter Chase]

I need to hold my hands up and say that I made an error when it came to Premier Magic. As I said in the preview he had the ability to run a big race, but I was so obsessed with how he ran in the race last year that I wasn't prepared to give him another chance to rectify that despite him being a big price. Of course I was happy to forgive Famous Clermont a poor Cheltenham run at a much shorter price so I should really have given Premier Magic another chance as well. Like last year he wasn't even meant to be in the race, but Highway Jewel didn't make it again and at the last moment Bradley decided to give Premier Magic another chance. In last year's race he was on the inside and he hated it so Bradley decided to go on the outside this year and he travelled and jumped superbly for his jockey/trainer. It is important to be always learning in this game and I have learnt a lesson from taking him on, especially as he was such a big price. He was also wearing cheekpieces which he had only worn once before in a point a couple of years ago and they may well have helped him. He continues the run of 11 or 10 year olds winning the race which now goes back to 2015 and he is the 4^th 10yo to win on the bounce.

 

Turning for home I thought at the very least we would have 2^nd and 3^rd with Rocky's Howya and Famous Clermont, both looking the only challengers to the winner. The loose horses got in the way on the run in though and it allowed Its On The Line and Shantou Flyer to fly home for 2^nd and 3rd. Its On The Line never really looked like getting involved and looked to get outpaced after jumping 3 out. At 2 out he doesn't even look like he's going to play a part in the finish as he jumps that quite slowly and only after the last does he really get going. He's only 6 so you would imagine he will be back for more in the upcoming years. He has been entered at Aintree. Shantou Flyer put in another superb effort at the Cheltenham Festival to finish placed in this race for a 3^rd time and for a 5^th time overall at The Festival. He was always handy and stayed on after getting outpaced. I suspect he was helped by the fact the loose horses got in Rocky's Howya though. 

 

Rocky's Howya certainly showed his improved pointing form back under rules and he gave it a right go from the front. His jumping wasn't always foot perfect and he possibily did a little bit too much in front, but he's run a hell of a race and was unlucky that the loose horses hampered him on the run-in. I think they put him off big time and he probably would have finished 2^nd otherwise. He's only 7 and he will surely be back for more. I'd imagine Aintree, Punchestown and Stratford will all be looked at.

 

I did think Chris's Dream might be the best of the former top-class horses and so it proved. He ran a perfectly good race to finish 5^th and wasn't beaten far. I'd imagine he will be considered for Punchestown.

 

Famous Clermont more than likely didn't stay the trip. I say more than likely because he was put off by the loose horses as well and given his quirks in the past it wouldn't surprise me if they put him off concentration wise. I didn't see him make a mistake and Will gave him a perfect ride as he creeped into contention, but the winner and Rocky's Howya were staying on the better and he didn't have enough to see it out. He's only 8 though and given how this race has been farmed by 10 and 11yos in recent years, it wouldn't surprise me if as he got older he might see the trip out better. On The Fringe didn't look a stayer when he first ran in the race and went onto win it aged 10 and 11. If he goes to Aintree then he clearly will be a leading contender and he does have a month to get over the exertions. They might be tempted by Punchestown instead to give him a bit more time to get over it. He more than proved how good he is though.

 

Vaucelet was a head behind him in 7^th and he looked like the was going to play a part for a long way, but he didn't find too much after coming under a ride after jumping 3 out. Again, like Famous Clermont he is only 8 and he might well end up winning this race at some point. As I pointed out in the preview though I was worried about a lack of a recent run for him and he ran like he was lacking a recent run. Punchestown and Stratford are likely to be on his agenda again although I'd imagine where Ferns Lock goes next season will determine if he runs in this again next year. He has been entered at Aintree, but I suspect that Winged Leader will be the stables horse for that race.

 

Bob And Co was only just behind them in 8^th which is as close as he ever got. He was out the back for a long way and seemed to find things happening all a bit too quickly for him. Based on this he could be one for the 4miler back here on hunter chase night because he looked like he needed 4m last week. I suspect the fact he hadn't run for a year also didn't help him.

 

Billaway seemed to make more mistakes than usual and eventually he paid the price. I did like Patrick Mullins piece in the Racing Post where he said he eventually did what he has threatened to do for 6 years and fall. He looked like he set off too early as ploughed right through the fence and gave himself no chance. I K Brunel unseated at the same fence and was still travelling well at the time. The Storyteller didn't improve for the return to Cheltenham and ran every bit as badly as his Down Royal run and his last point run suggested he would. Mighty Stowaway never looked like he would repeat his 3^rd of last year. Dandy Dan ran well enough for a while, but his jumping went to pieces and he ended up pulling up. The ground might have been too soft for him. Cat Tiger never got involved, but will have a better chance at Aintree and after making the running Go Go Geronimo was outclassed. I thought Myth Buster ran a good race until he was left behind after jumping 3 out. He was out of shot when unseating at the 2^nd last.

 

Usually the time of the Hunter Chase is around 10 seconds slower than the Gold Cup but it was over 14 seconds this year. Clearly the winner of the Gold Cup looks above average, but I asked Simon Rowlands on Twitter what it meant regarding this race and he thought it meant Premier Magic was no more than an average winner which I would agree with.

[Road To The Cheltenham Festival Hunter Chase]

21 hours ago, DanV89 said:

@Darranhave you managed to have a look at the Hunters Chase at Carlisle today at all? 

Sorry only just seen this which is why I didn't respond.

[Road To The Cheltenham Festival Hunter Chase]

On 3/18/2023 at 12:50 AM, MCLARKE said:

I managed to make a profit of £233.66 over the 4 days, mostly on the all weather. I will be donating this to Small Steps.

That is incredibly kind of you.

[Road To The Cheltenham Festival Hunter Chase]

7 hours ago, yossa6133 said:

Bennys King out to 13/8 now.

Yes was a crazy sp as well at 15/8. If he’d been that price this morning I’d have taken it. Summed up the day after the Cheltenham race.

[Road To The Cheltenham Festival Hunter Chase]

As always I add my preview for the Fakenham Hunter Chase to this thread

Right onto the Fakenham hunter chase which I have a fantastic record in. It came back in 2019 after a break and I have put the winner up in all 4 renewals. It would be nice to make that 5 this year, but I do think its a trickier race to call than usual. 

 

Basically, if Bennys King jumps round safely then he wins, but given he made a bad mistake at Hereford where Heidi nearly fell off and she did fall off at Haydock I don't think you can be certain of that. The Hereford win was a really strong piece of form with Magic Saint winning at Wincanton the other week to boost it and he had Gaboriot 20L behind in 3rd. He was running well at Haydock as well when he unseated at the 14th. Fakenham is a tough jumping test and so it worries me about him getting round. Without that I think 4/5 would be a justifiable price, but with that I can't back him at odds on.

 

So, what can take advantage should he not complete? Mister Whitaker has Gina on who really should be at Cheltenham rather than Fakenham. He travelled well into the race at Bangor, but found very little behind Secret Investor and was beaten 17L in the end. Possibly he will come on for the run, but they went a slow pace at Bangor and it has to be a concern that he has just regressed more than anything. Stamina also has to be the other concern.

 

I've backed Gaboriot in both hunter chases. There was promise at Hereford, but the Kelso effort was shocking. I guess there is a chance he found the ground too quick at Kelso, but it worries me how quickly he stopped that day. It wouldn't surprise me if he did run a big race, but he wont be carrying my money.

 

Peacocks Secret was 2^nd to Not That Fuisse in this race last year, but he didn't exactly jump all that well which is odd given he has won here before. He did win on his next start at Stratford, but wasn't so good after that. He was last of 3 on his seasonal reappearance in a point last month although only beaten 5L. He's a solid enough horse so could run well if at his best.

 

With Dale Peters riding his own horse it means he can't ride Rebel Dawn Rising like he usually does. He looked a progressive horse the last two seasons and I thought he did well to win at Leicester last March. He then went to the Intermediate Final at Cheltenham and I don't think he really stayed. He was then ridden to stay in the John Corbet Cup at Stratford and that didn't really work either. 3m round here should be perfect though and he bolted up first time out last season. I can't see him beating Bennys King if he gets round, but I can see him being good enough to beat the rest.

 

Sir Jack Yeats won this race in 2019 and he's went on to do well for himself since then. He had lost his way though under rules and I haven't seen enough from him since going pointing and hunter chasing this season. I don't think he achieved a great deal when 2^nd at Kelso last time although of course he was well clear of Gaboriot and he is a bigger price than him now.

 

I don't give General Custard much of a chance and that leaves us with the outside Zee Man who I do think has a chance. I thought he ran really well at Southwell 11 days ago and this will be less of a stamina test which will help him. On a line through Dieu Vivant he actually has the beating of Mister Whitaker yet he was a much bigger price. Apart from Bennys King, Caryto Des Brosses is better than any other horse in this race so the fact he got as close as he did gives him a chance here. 

 

For me the play is to have e/w bets on Rebel Dawn Rising and Zee Man who I think are both a bigger price than they should be given the doubts about the others. Quite how Zee Man is the outsider I don't know. Like I say at the start though if Bennys King gets round then I don't see him getting beaten thus I will do forecasts as well with him to win and one of the other two to finish 2^nd to him.

 

Rebel Dawn Rising 0.5pts e/w @ 13/2 with Paddy Power and Betfair

Zee Man 0.5pts e/w @ 40/1 with Bet365

Bennys King to beat Rebel Dawn Rising 0.5pts f/c

Bennys King to beat Zee Man 0.5pts f/c

[Australian Jumps Season 2023]

I am back for my 4th attempt at looking at the Australian Jumps racing season. It all started because of Covid and 2020 was very successful. 2021 was a bit tougher, but last year was superb with the final totals for the season stakes 112.5, returns 155.28 for a total profit of 42.78. I was more than pleased with that and hopefully I can have another profitable season which starts on Gold Cup Day at Terang and will carry on until August.

Race 1

We start with a BM120 Hurdle and as the betting suggests the race is quite trappy, but it looks full of horses who struggle to actually get their head in front and therefore I think Mighty Oasis can win the opening race of the season. He won twice last season at Warrnambool and Casterton before struggling in his final couple of runs of the prep. I suspect he had more than enough for the season and he had 2 2nds on the flat which were decent. He did disappoint at Yarra Valley last time, but he's trialed well since over fences and whilst this might be a prep for going over fences I think he can take this first.

Mighty Oasis 1pt @ 11/4 with Betfred and William Hill

Race 2

Looks a pretty weak maiden hurdle and Laybuy is favourite on the back of a promising trail, but I prefer the claims of Cotton Eye Joe. Most of these are making their debuts over hurdles, but he ran in a maiden on the final meeting of the season at Ballarat. He made the running, but in the end got tired and ended up finishing 5th. On better ground here I think he has a chance of making all and to put that hurdling experience to good use. He trailed really well earlier in the month so that is promising as well for his claims here.

Cotton Eye Joe 1pt @ 3/1 with Paddy Power, Betfair and Betfred

Race 3

Not a huge fan of this race so will pass it over betting wise. Goondiwindi would be the most likely winner as didn't get much luck on hurdles debut at Ballarat and can improve on that.

Race 4

The first steeplechase of the new season and its not a very strong affair. Count Zero and Flying Pierro are the market leaders here, but I am happy enough to try and take them on. Count Zero didn't impress me with his jumping in his trial and whilst Flying Pierro was much better, I didn't think a great deal of his two runs over fences last season. He didn't jump well when 3rd behind Historic at Hamilton and then a week later looked quite one paced in 4th albeit he was hampered by a fall at 3 out which didn't help. Speaking of Historic I think there is value in backing him. Although he has won on a Heavy 10 he has also won on a Soft 5 so these conditions shouldn't bother him. This is the sort of race he can win and he has won 5 times over jumps from 21 starts and he has had two solid trials going into this. I am also going to cover So Belafonte who won the trail Count Zero was in and jumped very well. He's only had one start over fences back in 2020 when he fell when beaten, but he looks set to do better this time around. He only had 3 hurdle starts last year and never really got going, but he's had 5 flat runs plus the trial to get his fitness up and he's been running solidly on the level. He looks a big price here.

Historic 1pt @ 5/1 with Paddy Power, Betfair and Betfred

So Belafonte 1pt @ 9/1 with Paddy Power, Betfair and Betfred