[Non-League Ante-Post 23/24]

When I posted this it hadn't been priced up and the price on my selection went quite quickly and I was on holiday at the time so didn't get chance to post anything on here. The pick is Radcliffe e/w though

[Australian Jumps Season 2023]

Terrible last week especially Rockstar Ronnie who was a big disappointment. Onto Coleraine where we have 4 hurdles and a steeplechase.

Race 1

I can't say I was very impressed with Cadre Du Noir's hurdles debut at Pakenham where he only finished 5^th and whilst he has flat class I couldn't be backing him at odds on after the Pakenham effort. I've given Mount Stewart a couple of chances, but he's been well beaten twice now and he was poor on the flat last time as well. You have to think the ability he showed pre injury has disappeared. Platinum Spirit ran really well on his hurdles debut only beaten 0.2L into 2^nd place by That's Incranibull in the race where the fav was 5th. If he builds on that then he's a big player. Raise Your Sights is the other one in with a chance after he finished 3^rd at Warrnambool and then 2^nd at Casterton last time beaten 2L by Dashing Willoughby.

 

I am happy to take the favourite on here especially as we have a horse who beat him last time at a much bigger price. So Platinum Spirit will be the main bet, but I will have some coverage on Raise Your Sights as well as for me they are the only other 2 possible winners in the race.

 

Platinum Spirit 1pt @ 2/1 with Paddy Power and Betfair

Raise Your Sights 0.5pts @ 9/2 with Paddy Power, Betfair and Betfred

 

Race 2

Don't have a massive view here so will leave it alone. Will be interesting to see how Lincoln King as he has the flat class.

 

Race 3

Rising Renown would have a chance in this 0-114 hurdle  on his form earlier in the season, but he seems to have lost his way a bit in the last couple of months so I will pass him over. 

 

In the handicap at Sandown last week Laybuy, Rider In The Snow and Dr Dependable all ran in it finishing 4th, 5^th and 6th. I tipped up the middle horse and he was really well backed into favouritism, but he was held up a long way out the back and he never really looked likely to win. Clearly better was expected and he might just improve for the first hurdle run for a while. The problem is his price is very short and I couldn't back him at 1/2 so I will leave the race alone.

 

Race 4

Sky Hero has a chance going back over hurdles and down in grade from the last time he went over them and Heir To The Throne probably won't be too far away either, but I suspect either Field Of Lights or That's Incranibull will win. Both ran at Casterton last time with Field Of Lights winning the maiden over 3500m in impressive style. With Jackyll'n'hyde going in Race 2 he could boost the form, but it wasn't that strong a race and his previous hurdles run he was a well beaten 4^th behind Frankenstar. That could be an important form line as That's Incranibull was just behind him at Casterton in the feature hurdle on the card. I thought that was a nice effort and hopefully Platinum Spirit can boost the form of his Pakenham maiden win in the opening race. I think dropping back in trip will suit as I don't think he quite saw out the 3500m at Casterton and given he's the bigger price as well I certainly he's the value in the race.

 

That's Incranibull 1pt @ 2/1 with everyone

 

Race 5

The feature race is the Great Western Steeplechase and it sees Mighty Oasis and Roland Garros do battle again after they finished behind Elvision at Casterton 3 weeks ago. There wasn't much between them that day with Roland Garros just finishing in front. I think he is likely to do the same here as well as I think he just has that little bit more class than Mighty Oasis and he might well get an easy time of things out in front, which he didn't get at Casterton as Elvision was always going to lead.

 

Castrofrancaru did beat Roland Garros at Hamilton in May, but in really deep ground and he was turned over at 1/2 8 days later at Sale. He's had a couple of flat runs since, but I do think Roland Garros can reverse that form here. Nelson clearly has the flat class having run in an Arc and he ran well enough on his chase debut last time, but this is tougher. Under The Bridge has been a bit disappointing this season and has been behind the main fancies here including when 5^th at Casterton.

 

I wrote the above before the prices came out and I was surprised to see Nelson as favourite as I thought Roland Garros would be and he looks a fair bet. I also was shocked to see Mighty Oasis at a double figure price so whilst I wasn't planning to back him I have to have something on e/w as I'd have him 2^nd or 3^rd in the betting.

 

Roland Garros 1.5pts @ 15/4 with Paddy Power and Betfair

Mighty Oasis 0.5pts e/w @ 12/1 with everyone

[Non-League Predictions - 12th August]

Oxford City v Rochdale

City's defending looked hopeless against Aldershot and I am more than happy to continue to oppose them. Rochdale did OK in the live game against Ebbsfleet and I don't think there was much between the two sides at all. I certainly saw enough to give me the confidence to back them at a shade of odds against to beat the team I think will finish bottom.

 

Bromley v Barnet

Barnet have been really well backed for the live TV game, but I still think there is some juice in the price. They were good last week when taking a 3-0 lead against Hartlepool and it was only a lapse of concentration which gave Hartlepool some late hope to get it to 3-2. Bromley struggled at Halifax and I just get the sense they are a little short at the moment so I think the North London side can beat the South London side.

 

Havant v Chippenham

Havant lost the plot in the 2^nd half of last season and they were especially bad at home. They weren't great last week when losing to Weston and so I am happy to take a chance on Chippenham who got off to a solid start with a win on the opening day.

 

Chester v Kings Lynn

Chester had a very surprising loss on the opening day at Bishops Stortford and I think they will lose this as well. This is actually a game between the teams who finished 3^rd and 2^nd last season and Chester have got 6 players missing going into this game. Not all the players have been named, but they don't have a huge squad so it is going to hurt them. Kings Lynn battered Hereford xG wise last Saturday although they only got a point in a 2-2 draw. Still it was a promising start and they are a decent price to beat Chester.

 

Rochdale 2.5pts @ 23/20 with Bet365 and Coral (take up to 10/11)

Barnet 2pts @ 15/8 with Coral, William Hill and Betfred (365 are a huge 11/5 and take up to 6/4)

Chippenham 1pt @ 3/1 with Skybet, BetVictor and Betfred (take up to 5/2)

Kings Lynn 1pt @ 19/10 with Paddy Power, Betfair, BetVictor and Bet365 (take up to 6/4)

 

(Odds correct as of Friday 7pm)

[Australian Jumps Season 2023]

Elvision did us proud a couple of weeks ago and great that he landed a lumpy bet at decent odds. Just 3 meetings left now and it starts off at Sandown where we have the Crips Steeplechase and the Grand National Hurdle.

Race 2

The Crisp Steeplechase is the first jumps race on the card and it really is a cracking race. Stern Idol was very dominant last time and bounced back from his Grand Annual effort where he pulled up. He didn't stay that day, but he ought to be capable of staying 4200m and he is the right favourite. This is a conditions race rather than a handicap so the Grand Annual winner, Rockstar Ronnie, actually has to give Stern Idol weight here. We know he will stay and I suspect he will look to make it a real test of stamina to try and get Stern Idol beaten. He ran really well at Warrnambool last time when 2nd, but he showed a real will to win that day and I suspect he wasn't match fit given this and the Grand National Chase will be his aims. He was trained by Dan Skelton and we have Crosshill back over jumps as well who was 3rd at last seasons Punchestown Festival and has plenty of good form in Ireland. He was 3rd in the Grand Annual and he just didn't really seem to stay it out as well as the winner as he did look dangerous for a long way. He's been on the flat since and actually won last time so is in good heart. On his Irish form he has a chance and I suspect 4200m might be more his trip, but Stern Idol and Rockstar Ronnie both have his beating so far this season. He has been very well backed though as he was as big as 14/1, but I would say he was the right price now. Tolemac is the only other one to consider for me and he won the Australian Chase here earlier in the season. He was poor at Warrnambool last time though and this is tougher than the Australian Chase.

For me the value is with Rockstar Ronnie and he really does look an e/w bet to nothing as he should be in the top 3 and whilst Stern Idol is the right fav, I'm not sure he should be quite so far ahead of the Grand Annual winner in the market.

Rockstar Ronnie 2pts e/w at 5/1 with everyone

Race 4

Like quite a few of this BM120 Hurdles of late this is wide open especially after the non-runners, but I think Rider On The Snow is worth a bet. He was impressive when winning his maiden at Warrnambool in May and the race has worked out pretty well. He's not been back over hurdles since and has ticked over on the flat and in trials, but I think he can make it 2/2 over hurdles here.

Rider On The Snow 1pt @ 9/2 with everyone

Race 5

A good edition of the Grand National Hurdle and it sees Bedford, Instigator and Bell Ex One lock horns again after the were 1st, 2nd and 3rd at Pakenham last time. I was a little disappointed with the latter that day after he had put in an improved showing when winning the start before. I'm not sure he wants this far either so I am actually not going to put him up for once. I was surprised Bedford won, but he was backed off the boards almost like he couldn't be beaten and he has clearly got a big chance here. I am though going to put up the 2021 winner Wil John as the bet. He was an amazing horse that year, but then he got injured after winning the Jericho Cup on the flat in November that year. He ran OK on his hurdles return when he was 7th to Bell Ex One, but am expecting him to come on form that run and if he does then I think he can win this for the 2nd year running.

WIl John 1pt @ 9/2 with everyone

[Non-League Predictions - 5th August]

Aldershot v Oxford City

I am not surprised that the home side have been backed already for this and I imagine that will continue to happen throughout the week. To be fair these two teams could easily have switched positions as Aldershot probably ought to have gone down, but the late managerial change to bring Tommy Widdrington in just worked. Whilst losing Tyler Cordner to York isn't great, they did get a 6 figure sum for him and whilst I don't expect them to finish any higher than mid-table, I do think Widdrington has done a solid enough job in bringing in new players to improve a struggling squad. The main reason for this bet though is that I think Oxford City are going to really struggle this season and I think they will be this terms Maidstone. They don't have much money, don't have many fans and the squad looks pretty weak for this level. I'd be a bit surprised if Aldershot weren't good enough to get off to a winning start and I reckon they will be nearer 8/11-4/6 come kick off not the odds against they currently are.

 

Maidenhead v AFC Fylde

Because of Alan Devonshire I always think Maidenhead will stay up because he has done an amazing job over the years, but for the first time I actually think they could end up in the bottom 4 this season. They were still capable of putting in very good performances at home to the big clubs and they pushed both Notts County and Wrexham close at home last season and I suspect that might happen again this time around. They still were very close to going down though and were pretty average for most of the season. I don't really see them improving this season and for me that means they could finally go down. AFC Fylde certainly have the better squad and after winning the title last season I think they have the potential to be in and around the play-offs. I think they should be favourites for this even though they are away from home and look good value.

 

Rochdale v Ebbsfleet

The first live National League game on TNT (the new name for BT Sport) is this one and I hope that both Step 2 champions can get off to a winning start. Ebbsfleet played some great football to win the title with ease last term and this is a real tough game for a relegated Rochdale side who haven't been at this level before. I don't think Rochdale are going to do a great deal this season and they might get a shock here. It wouldn't actually surprise me if Ebbsfleet have a bigger budget than their hosts and manager Jimmy McNulty was talking in the paper today that even the likes of Altrincham and Gateshead have been outbidding them for players. Bet365 are out on their own at 7/2 but plenty are bigger than 3/1 and I think this is a game priced up on what leagues they were in last season rather on what both sides might be capable off now they are in the same division.

 

Solihull Moors v Eastleigh

As I mentioned in the Ante-Post preview I think Solihull could well go down this season. Neil Ardley left in the summer and I think it was because the budget was going in the wrong direction. All the key players have left and they look a side way weaker than last season. We are also talking about a side who didn't actually do that well anyway. New manager Andy Whing did a good job at Banbury, but winning a title at Step 3 is very different from managing at this level and to me he strikes me as the cheap option. If they were still going for promotion I don't think he would have got the job. Eastleigh haven't signed as well as I thought they might when it was announced Stewart Donald was coming back as owner, but they will still be going for the play-offs and this does look a very good game for them to get their season off to a winning start. I should add as well that they have still signed well, but I thought they might have spent even more cash than they have. One slight concern is they were poor away from home last season, but hopefully that wont matter here.

 

Prices from Sunday evening

 

Aldershot 2.5pts @ 11/10 with Paddy Power, William Hill, Betfair, Betfred and Ladbrokes (6/5 with Bet365 and take up to 4/5)

AFC Fylde 2pts @ 13/8 with Paddy Power, Betfair, Boylesports and Ladbrokes (9/5 with Bet365 and take up to 11/8)

Ebbsfleet 1pt @ 16/5 with William Hill, Betfair, BetVictor, Betfred and Boylesports (Bet365 are 7/2 and take up to 5/2)

Eastleigh 2pts @ 2/1 with Paddy Power, William Hill and Betfair (Bet365 are 11/5 and take up to 6/4)

[Non-League Ante-Post 23/24]

After making such a huge profit last season from the ante-post bets the pressure is on to try and replicate it. Clearly that will be very tough, but only once have I not made a profit an the ante-post markets so confidence is high that will be the case again this season. 

National League

After one of the most dramatic title battles we will ever see, we will no doubt move back to normality without the Hollywood duo around. Chesterfield no doubt will be glad to see the back of Wrexham and Notts County given they finished a distant 3^rd and only just lost out to County at Wembley in the play-off final. In some ways they really ought to have won that game, but again I felt Paul Cook's tactics left a lot to be desired and they should have pushed harder for a 2^nd goal as they really had County on the ropes. Instead they dropped off and give County enough of the ball and they will punish you in the end. I think the other thing to point out is they ought to have finished 3^rd fairly comfortably, but they dropped some really silly points and only just edged ahead of Woking late on. Will Cook finally have learnt how to play the division? I'm not so sure myself and the way he decided to go to the dressing room whilst the penalty shootout was going on in the final wasn't a good look for me. How are the players expected to cope if the manager can't? He's meant to be the leader and as soon as the going got tough he was nowhere to be seen. They lacked goals at certain times last season and playing Quigley by himself upfront was never going to bring you goals. This season Will Grigg will be the man expected to get the goals and Cook has managed him before so that is a plus, but he's the type of striker who relies on the quality of ball that he gets and if that is lacking then he might not get as many goals as expected. Also it has been a few years since he was prolific in front of goal and whilst clearly down in level will help, it isn't something I like to see. Take Paul Mullin for example he was top scorer in League 2 when Wrexham signed him so he was at his peak. It isn't hard to think that Grigg might be on the way down. Having said all that, I do think they have just about the best squad in the division and I would also make them favourites. 6/1 was available in a couple of places when the league was priced up and that would have appealed e/w because they really ought to be in the top 3 at least, but they are now no bigger than 9/4 and quite frankly that price stinks. I just don't have them anywhere near as far clear as those odds suggest and I am more than happy to look elsewhere. The final point I want to make is that losing play-off finalists have a rotten record the following season. They remind me a lot like Tranmere when they lost the title to Macclesfield because they easily had the best side in the division that season, yet a slow start meant they blew the title and ended up going up via the play-offs. I can easily see them having to rely on the play-off route again to get out of the division.

 

The only other team in single figures are Oldham and again I am concerned about the manager. I was an Everton fan back in the 90s and I remember David Unsworth doing a great job at the back for them, but he didn't always convince me last season when he took over at Oldham. I watched a few of their games towards the back end and whilst they did finish the season well, I wasn't really taken by the performances. They clearly have money to spend though and they have really improved the squad so they really ought to be challenging for the title this time around. Fans are already split on Unsworth so if they do get off to a slow start then I fully expect them to get on his back and we would likely see a change at the top. Stockport proved a couple of seasons ago that a slow start and a change of manager isn't a hindrance to winning the league so whatever happens they really ought to be bang in contention.

 

Rochdale and Hartlepool were the two relegated sides from last season and they are both next in the betting. It has been proven time and time again how hard it is to go back up at the first time of asking and neither side look like they are going to challenge that rule. At the same time I would be surprised if either did a Scunthorpe and went down again, but the both look mid-table to fringe play-off contenders to me.

 

We then get to Woking who really ought to have punished Chesterfield for their slip-ups and finished 3^rd (and land my e/w bet at 66/1 in the process), but I think at their first chance of being properly in play-off contention they were just found wanting late on. I think it was the same in the play-offs themselves as well as they blew a 1-0 lead to lose 2-1 to Bromley. On the plus side last season should have given them plenty of experience of being contenders and I think they will improve this season. I'm a big fan of Darren Sarll and I think he realised he didn't need to do too much to the squad, but what he has done ought to improve them and given they were only just behind Chesterfield last season, I just don't see how one can be 9/4 and the other 14/1.

 

Not that is lasted long, but York were put into 100/1 by BetVictor when prices opened up and the odds compiler is a York fan as well.! Clearly he didn't see the input of money that was about to happen after the takeover by the Uggla family. They had tried to take over at Yeovil last season only for it to fall through. Not surprisingly they have been very well backed at big prices on the back of the signings especially spending 6 figures to buy Tyler Cordner and Dipo Akinyemi. I have a few issues with them though. First of all any value in the price has long gone for me. I'm not really sure I trust Uggla either. Something seemed off to me when he came in at Yeovil and I don't trust him to get things right at York. I'm also not sure they have the right man in place as manager to get the job done either. They have a huge squad at the moment and the Uggla has brought players with him from Yeovil who didn't look great for them this season. They could be a side I might look to back once the season starts depending on how they do, but I suspect they might need a season at least to get things right.

 

AFC Fylde are next in the betting which I find a little surprising. I think Adam Murray came in and did a really good job last season after the mistake of hiring James Rowe and keeping hold of Nick Haughton is a big boost for them. I can see them being possible play-off contenders, but I'd be surprised if they were title contenders.

 

We then come to Barnet and I think they have a massive chance. As much as I think xG stats can be a helpful tool now I also think you have to be very careful how you use them. Barnet on the stats massively over achieved, but I don't think they did at all. I'm a huge fan of Dean Brennan and I just think he got the very best out of his team. He made them very hard to beat and also they were so clinical in taking their chances when they came their way. Losing Ryan De Havilland is clearly a blow, but they have kept Nicke Kabamba and Zak Brunt should be a very good signing. Like Sarll at Woking, I think Brennan knows that he didn't need to do too much to the squad to keep them improving and the signings that he has made have improved the squad in my view. I think they have the potential to be title contenders this season.

 

Southend are next in the betting and they have been allowed to start the season, but I just don't know how anyone can back them given we still don't know if Ron Martin will actually sell the club and then how much money they will have to spend. They still have a transfer embargo against them at the time of writing so chances are they are only going to have a bare squad to start the season. They also have a huge threat of receiving a 10 point deduction if they haven't paid HRMC when they next go to court in just under a month. Amazingly they still have talented players at the club so if they can get things sorted and avoid a point deduction they might become a bet, but they should be double the price they are as things stand.

 

With Stewart Donald going back to Eastleigh they were on my radar when the season ended as a team I would be looking to back for the title this season. They really should have finished in the play-offs, but blew up massively in the final month of the season. Paul McCallum made his name at Eastleigh and he is back after ending up at Chesterfield last season. They need him to be scoring 20+ goals this season if they are to challenge. I was also quite surprised that some of the players who left were solid first teamers and I'm not sure they have made the sort of signings I expected them to make back when the season ended. I'm leaving them for now and will wait and see how they start the season.

 

Luke Garrard continues to do a great job at Boreham Wood, but I just wonder if he is going to be capable of getting them promotion. Fair play he has been very loyal, but I just get the sense that a change could do both manager and club a world of good. No doubt they will be in and around the play-offs again though, but I can't see them turning into title contenders. Bromley did well to get into the play-offs last season and again have a good manager in the shape of Andy Woodman. I'm not sure they look any better than last season though so can't see much progression if any. Dagenham lost a lot of key players over the summer and I'm not sure Strevens has done enough to replace them.

 

Two more sides worth mention for me at big prices. Gateshead ended the season in really good form and Mike Williamson has rightly earned rave reviews. It is a big jump though from where they finished last season to be title contenders and I think they might need another season to build up to that sort of level. It could be argued that Altrincham might need that as well. They really struggled after turning professional at the start of last season, but then some shrewd signings and it all clicked and at their best they looked very good. I think they have the squad to build on that first season as a professional team and for them to be outsiders and as big as 150/1 is just daft. At the very least I think they can finish in the top half and I would have them around the 33-40/1 mark. Therefore they have to be worth a very small punt at 3 figure price.

 

Sadly we don't have any relegation betting again, but I would be all over Solihull if it was available. They have lost their best players, Neil Ardley mysteriously left, but given he hasn't got another job it can only be because they have no money and replacement Andy Whing just strikes me as the cheap option. I expect them to struggle. I would be amazed if Oxford City didn't go down as they look way below the standard needed to survive. 

 

So for the bets. I was toying about including Oldham based on Unsworth, but I do think they are slightly bigger than they should be so I will include them. Woking don't have much to find on Chesterfield at all and for me they are too big a price as I think they can improve again. The main bet though for me is Barnet. I rate Brennan as one of the best managers in the league and I think he has improved his squad again from last season. 22/1 is a crazy price in my view and I personally would have them shorter than a few teams above them in the betting. As mentioned above I will also be having a small, likely value loser, bet on Altrincham at huge odds.

 

National League North

This division is all about Scunthorpe and I honestly thought they wouldn't be far off even money when the prices opened up. I'm amazed that 2/1 is still available and they really should win the league with ease. It took me by surprise the level of player they started buying in May and the squad Jimmy Dean has built is seriously impressive, indeed it is one that would be a play-off contender in the National League in my opinion. I've been told they have a League 1 budget and that doesn't surprise me. I must admit I'm not a big Jimmy Dean fan, but I'd fancy my chances of managing this team to win the title this season they have that much in hand on paper. Also there is the off the field issue of what is going to happen with the ground between the ex owner and the new owner, but I'm not sure that will hinder their progress although they do have a groundshare agreement in place should it be needed. This league looks really weak this season and quite frankly if they don't win the title I'm not sure they will ever get a better chance.

 

Chester drew too many games last season, but clearly they were very hard to beat and it wouldn't surprise me if they were the main rivals to Scunthorpe. I've seen people suggest Hereford are players, but they wouldn't be for me. Their manager says they have a bottom 8 budget and he's also unproven. I'm not sure their squad is anything special. Kings Lynn look weaker than last season to me so I can't see them being title contenders again. No doubt Brackley will be in and around the play-offs as usual, but hard to see this being the season when they finally get automatic promotion and I'm not sure on the choice of manager either. Boston look possible improvers after a tough season last time around and they have place claims. Buxton had a superb 2^nd half of the season and if they can build on that then they can get into the play-offs this time around. I am not expecting my own side Gloucester to repeat their play-off spot this season, indeed I fear we may be in a relegation battle.

 

To be honest I completely understand if you only back Scunthorpe here, but I am going to have a small e/w play on Spennymoor who look over priced at 33/1. They were one of a whole host of sides who were in play-off contention last season and they have signed well over the summer and look to have a better side for the season ahead. A top 3 finish is a strong possibility for me so I will add a small e/w bet on them.

 

National League South

Usually the National League North is stronger than the South and whilst Scunthorpe have the best side at either level, the NLS has way more depth to it this season and looks the strongest it ever has. As boring as it sounds I have to be with the relegated sides again here though in the shape of Torquay and Yeovil. I was really surprised at some of the players that Gary Johnson has been able to keep and they weren't far away from surviving last season. In fact I will go as far to say they really ought to have done. Gary Johnson has won this league with them before and I think he can do so again.

 

Yeovil stunk the place out last season and weren't helped at all from what was happening off the pitch. A takeover has now happened and it looks like the club are finally in a good place again. I'm a bit surprised Mark Cooper has stayed, but clearly he thinks they have a good chance of going back up and he has recruited well as well as keeping some of the better players from last season.

 

Eastbourne have been the movers in the betting after they were taken over during the summer and have now gone full time. I must admit though I haven't been wowed by the signings made so far and they certainly don't look as strong as the two relegated sides on paper so they wouldn't be for me at this stage. Dartford finished a distant 2^nd to Ebbsfleet last season and whilst they are likely play-off contenders I can't have them as a title contender. Farnborough weren't far away from the play-offs last season and they have recruited well so if they sneaked into the top 3 I wouldn't be shocked. I can't have the other relegated side, Maidstone, at all. George Elokobi did a terrible job when he took over as manager last season and whilst they were always likely to go down, I just didn't see anything that would suggest he would be capable of getting them back up. My guess is he won't see the season out. Hampton have got interesting new owners and I can see them improving on what they did last season based on their squad.

 

If Havant went and won the league I would be very frustrated after being on them last season and them seemingly set for at least a top 3 finish, only for them to have a terrible 2023 and not even reach the play-offs. I can't be backing them again. I did back Worthing last season and they scored a huge 92 goals last term, but conceded 72 which stopped them from getting into the top 3. I am going to have a small e/w bet on them again though because I think they can build on that first season at this level and for me they might be the side who can take advantage if the ex League clubs don't deliver. 

 

Isthmian League

Not surprisingly Hornchurch have been put in as favourites and really they would have won the league if the lino at Horsham hadn't given the worst offside in the history of football. Mark Stimson leaving as manager was a big surprise and an even bigger surprise was getting Steve Morison in as manager. He clearly wont have been cheap and they look to have a very strong squad. I'm not sure they are much value at the prices though and I am going to look elsewhere.

 

Hands up, I don't like what Hashtag United stand for at all and I am also not sure their squad is near the required standard for this level either. They look way under priced as 2^nd favs for me. I'm surprised Concord are so short in the betting as well because they were pretty rubbish last season in the league above and I can't see them challenging to go back up.

 

For me the main value is with Billericay and Dulwich. These two battled it out for the title a few years ago when a certain person was in charge at Billericay. Not surprisingly he left them in the mire and they ended up coming back down again. I'm not surprised they didn't make a play-off bid last season as the squad didn't look capable of doing so, but this time around they seem to be really going for it. Getting Gary McCann as manager was a good move and he has made plenty of good signings. I would have them clear 2^nd in the betting just behind Hornchurch so they look a really good e/w price at 8/1. Dulwich should never got relegated last season, but they made a poor choice of manager after sacking Gavin Rose and they conceded way too many goals. Hakan Hayrettin came in too late to keep them up as the squad was way too soft for the battle as they showed on the final day of the season when they lost to Chippenham. He has got rid of the dead wood and recruited really well and given the level of support they have they really ought to be in title contention so again look a good e/w bet.

 

Out of the promoted sides I can see Chatham going well and possibly getting into the play-offs, but at the same price as them I am going to have small e/w bets on a couple of other sides. Cray did really well to reach the play-offs last season and I am a big fan of Neil Smith. He looks to have improved the squad over the summer so I am surprised they are 25/1. I am also going to back Lewes who ended the season in superb form. In their last 20 games only the two promoted sides and Canvey Island won more points than they did and it was a poor start to the season which hindered. They look well placed to build on that strong finish.

 

Southern Premier Central

This doesn't look the strongest of leagues this season and I think Coalville look well placed to finally win promotion. I'm still not sure how they blew the title in the end as they had gained the upper-hand over Tamworth, but I wonder if the Cup runs just caught up with them late on. They look the best side in the division and at 6/1 I am happy to have a solid e/w bet on them as I can't see them finishing out of the top 3 at the very least.

 

Relegated AFC Telford, Kettering and Leamington don't make a huge amount of appeal at this stage, but given how weak the league is they might end up being contenders. Leiston did well last season but have lost all their best players and look way too short. I thought Mickleover could progress from their finish just outside the play-offs, but I want a double figure price so will leave them alone for now. Nuneaton were tempting and promoted Halesowen could go well also, but for now I will just stick with Coalville.

 

Southern Premier South

Walton & Hersham are a pretty short price to win the league especially given they were promoted via the play-offs last season. They have a heavy social media presence which might have something to do with it, but they look to be relying very heavily on last seasons squad and that could be a mistake so I am more than happy to oppose at the prices. Bracknell also look poor 2^nd favs as they lost their best players and look weaker than last season. 

 

The main bet has to be AFC Totton although annoyingly the 66/1 they were put in at has long gone, but that was just a stupid price anyway. They were promoted as champions last season and have got a lot of experience in the side including Scott Rendell. They have signed well and have a decent budget on the back of decent average size crowds. They really strike me as a club on the up and clearly I'm not the only one who thinks so.

 

Chesham are on of the other bets. They are always either near the title race or in it and I think they can be again this season. Having Taskmaster as shirt sponsors isn't going to do any harm either as I suspect they will sell plenty on the back of that. The final bet is Salisbury who have under performed for a few seasons now. The signings over the summer though suggests they are going to give it a good go this time around and I'd fancy them to do better than some of those ahead of them in the betting so look a value bet.

 

National League

Barnet 1pt e/w @ 22/1 with Skybet, Paddy Power and Betfair 

Oldham 1pt @ 9/1 with Bet365, Paddy Power and Betfair

Woking 0.75pts e/w @ 14/1 with Bet365

Altrincham 0.1pt e/w @ 100/1 with Bet365, BetVictor, Coral and Ladbrokes (Skybet are 150/1) 

 

National League North

Scunthorpe 4pts @ 2/1 with Bet365 

Spennymoor 0.5pts e/w @ 33/1 with Skybet, BetVictor, Coral and Ladbrokes

 

National League South

Torquay 2pts @ 4/1 with Bet365 done

Yeovil 1pt @ 5/1 with Bet365, William Hill, Coral and Ladbrokes

Worthing 0.5pts e/w @ 16/1 with Coral, Betfred and Ladbrokes (Skybet are 18/1)

 

Isthmian Premier

Billericay 1.5pts e/w @ 8/1 with Bet365 and William Hill

Dulwich 1pt e/w @ 10/1 with William Hill 

Lewes 0.5pts e/w @ 25/1 with Bet365 and William Hill 

Cray 0.5pts e/w @ 25/1 with Bet365

 

Southern Premier Central

Coalville 2pts e/w @ 6/1 with Bet365 and William Hill

 

Southern Premier South

AFC Totton 1.5pts e/w @ 10/1 with William Hill and Bet365

Chesham 1pt e/w @ 10/1 with Bet365 

Salisbury 0.5pts e/w @ 33/1 with William Hill 

NB all prices were taken on Sunday (July 30th morning)

[Australian Jumps Season 2023]

Race 1

Not a strong looking maiden. Field Of Lights is odds on fav and on his hurdles debut in 2021 when he was a close 3rd I can see why, but he was well beaten on his first hurdles run since when 4th at Hamilton. Possibly the better ground might help, but he's won on a heavy track before. He did run well when 3rd on the flat a week ago so does come here in good heart. I'm going to have a small bet on Resolutions though she jumped well in her  hurdles trial last time. She ended up winning it although she was asked to quicken up after the last unlike the 2nd who had been well clear, but I still thought it was a nice effort and it would be no surprise if she was to improve on her flat form for a trainer who is good with this type of horse.

Resolutions 0.5pts @ 10/1 with Paddy Power, William Hill, Betfair and Betfred

Race 2

Dashing Willoughby is back over hurdles having run in a good race at Flemington a week ago, but he was well beaten again. He does seem to be going backwards over hurdles as well having finished a good 2nd on debut at Hamilton, but he was then 3rd at Warrnambool and followed that up with a 31L 5th at the same venue. All 3 races were on a Heavy 10 so I don't think that was a factor, but he probably will enjoy the better ground here.

I'm going to side with Praise The Power though who has been more consistent over hurdles so far. He was a good 3rd over course and distance back in May and then was 4th not far behind Dashing Willoughby at Hamilton. He then had a break of 5 weeks before being beaten a length by The Rattlin' Bog at Warrnambool which was a good effort in the context of this race. He has the ability to win a maiden hurdle and it could well be this one. Once Were Lost isn't without a chance, but he's not run for a long time and might just need it, but his trials have been decent.

Praise The Power 1pt @ 15/4 with Paddy Power and Betfair

Race 3

That's Incranibull did well to beat Platinum Spirit last week in a maiden and that built on his 2nd on hurdles debut. He has a chance here. Frankenstar was 2nd on the same card in the BM120 Hurdle where the race ended up being every bit as close as it looked like on paper. They are the two dangers to the selection who is King's Charisma. He's been very consistent over hurdles and was 2nd to Frankenstar in a maiden at Hamilton back in May. He then won at Warrnambool before running a solid enough 3rd in the winner of 1 at Warrnambool which was won by Bedford, who of course won the big hurdle last week. This is easier and it looks a good chance for him.

King's Charisma 1pt @ 11/10 with Bet365, William Hill and Betfred

Race 4

It was a hell of a performance from Mighty Oasis to win the Thackeray at Warrnambool last time where he just got the better of Rockstar Ronnie in a great battle down the straight. It was hard to know where that performance came from because he was stuffed in a maiden chase prior to that. If he can repeat his run last time he's a chance. Roland Garros was the BM120 on the same card when he led all the way, but I do think the front runners were favoured on the jumps course that day. He is a good horse though, but I'm not sure he should be heading the market.

He was set to run here against Elvision a month ago when the meeting was called off and I put Elvision up as a bet at 7/4, yet now he is a much bigger price and I have no idea why. He was never going to win the Thackeray because the hedge fences at Casterton is where he produces his best and he's now won 5 times round here. He's even better off at the weights than he would have been a month ago and whilst Roland Garros is probably the best horse he has come up against I strongly believe Elvision should be the market leader so I rate him a strong bet at the odds.

Elvision 3pts @ 4/1 with Paddy Power, William Hill, Betfair and Betfred

 

[Australian Jumps Season 2023]

Race 1

That's Incranibull sets the standard of those who have already raced over hurdles. He was 3^rd on debut at Sale and it was a solid performance which suggested he could pick up a maiden at some stage. I suspect Saint Eustace might show an improved performance on this better ground as he showed a bit of ability over course and distance when 5^th behind Circle The Sun in April. Things didn't go to plan next time at Hamilton and both those races were on a Heavy 10. Platinum Spirit certainly has the flat form to run well in this, but I wasn't overly impressed by his hurdles trial last time. 

 

The odds on favourite though is Cadre Du Noir who started out over here for Martyn Meade. Just under a year ago he won a Listed Race at Randwick and was then 2^nd in a G3 at Rosehill. Things haven't gone well on the since though and he has struggled to even beat a horse home. I do think he looks the type to find his form again over hurdles and is the type that the yard do so well with. He did jump his hurdles a bit big in the trials, but in his last but one I did notice when they went a bit quicker he was much slicker. I think he's the most likely winner, but the price is short enough so it is a no bet race for me.

 

Race 2

Botti is an interesting runner having run 4 times over hurdles last year in New Zealand, the last of which he came 2^nd in. We know he will stay this 3500m trip well as he was a very good 2^nd in the Jericho Cup over 4652m at Warrnambool in November. This prep he has struggled on the flat and they haven't really asked him for an effort in his hurdles trials either, but he does jump well. He ran on the flat on Wednesday at Sandown as a prep for this and he should be a leading player.

 

Contradeel hasn't shown too much over hurdles so far and has been priced up on his 2^nd to Gunaluva in the maiden chase at Warrnambool last month. That was a weak race though so he's not for me here.

 

I put up Newcastle bumper winner Mount Stewart last time on his 1^st hurdle start for nearly two years, but he drifted like a barge and ended up finishing lame after the race. He clearly needed the run and he showed over here and in his first hurdle run at Ballarat in 2021 that he has the talent to win races over hurdles. I'm expecting a big improvement here.

 

Nothin' Leica High and South Pacific pretty much finished upsides each other when a well beaten 3^rd and 4^th at Warrnambool 2 weeks ago. I think South Pacific will reverse the form as he has the flat class and I suspect this quicker surface will help him. Thinking Man was just in front of them in 2^nd and that was 2 2nd's on the bounce which were big improvements on what he had shown to date over hurdles. He has a place chance if he runs up to that form again.

 

Zoffala was 2^nd on his hurdles debut at Sale last month and it was a solid effort from the front. I am slightly surprised to see him stepping up in trip though as he tired late on and whilst I can understand why he is the market leader that does put me off a bit. He also ran poorly on the flat last time.

 

I like the chances of Botti here so he is the main bet. I have to back Mount Stewart again as if he is now in peak form he could well be the best of these.

 

Botti 1pt @ 7/2 with Paddy Power, William Hill, Betfair and Betfred

Mount Stewart 0.5pts @ 12/1 with everyone

 

Race 3

A BM120 Hurdle with 6 runners and the biggest price at the time of writing is just 13/2. It's like a well graded greyhound race and any of them winning wouldn't surprise me. You have some on their best form would have a strong chance, but need to bounce back and then Abreed and The Rattlin' Bog who come here on the back of maiden wins. I just don't have a strong view at all and am quite happy to leave the race alone from a punting point of view.

 

Race 4

The feature hurdle on the card is the Brendan Drechsler and what a race we have on the cards. It is a set weights race so that does suit Saunter Boy who would be giving more weight away to his rivals if it was a handicap. He has been a cash machine on the whole for the last 2 seasons, but over hurdles so far this season he has only won once from 3 starts. That came in the Galleywood which is also a set weight race. He then went to Sandown for the Australian Hurdle where he ran his worst race for a long time over hurdles as he only finished 4^th behind Circle The Sun and San Remo, but he did have a lot of weight to carry. He has just had the one trial since which he won easily a couple of weeks ago. Obviously, he has a leading chance.

 

Bell Ex One did me a huge favour when winning the Lafferty a couple of weeks ago just getting the better of Circle The Sun. I thought it was a good performance and whilst possibly not as good as his win over Stern Idol last August, I do think the Cheltenham Festival 3rd will improve from that run and he looks the value play in the race to me.

 

Bedford won a winner of 1 Hurdle at Warrnambool a couple of weeks ago, but as much as I was impressed with the performance, this race is a fair bit tougher. I'm surprised he's so short in the betting. On hurdles form San Remo has a fair bit to find although he did run well to finish a 6L 2^nd to Circle The Sun in the Australian Hurdle. He's been good on the flat since though winning twice over 3600m at Bendigo including beating Bell Ex One on the first occasion. I still find it hard to see him being good enough to win this though, but I'm not sure he should be a double figure price.

 

I have to be with Bell Ex One again here. I think he will improve again for the win at Warrnambool and if any horse is going to be good enough to beat Saunter Boy in a set weight contest, then it is him and he's a big price to do so. Saunter Boy is clearly a big danger thought.

 

Bell Ex One 1.5pts @ 9/2 with Paddy Power and Betfair

 

Race 5

I'm not sure there will have been too many horses that have run in the Arc and ended up over fences and certainly I'd imagine Nelson is a first to end up over fences in Australia. He hasn't run his race the last twice. At Sandown he pulled up with cardiac arrhythmia and then last time at Warrnambool he was disappointing on the face of it, but he was put under restraint given the strong early tempo and he didn't really see the race out. He might improve for the run as his jockey said he would. I certainly think he will be better to be allowed to stride out because I watched his steeple trial and he wasn't great when being held on to, but jumped better when allowed his head. He's certainly got the best flat form and class might win the day, but I don't think he offers much value.

 

Twin Spinner won well at Hamilton in May and was then just 5^th at Warrnambool. He was a fair way behind Nelson in the trial last time, but he seemed to jump well enough and wasn't asked for an effort. He has a chance, but I think he might need softer ground. Sky Hero was very novicey at the start of his steeple trial, but did look to get better as it went on. He was a long way behind Nelson over hurdles then back in April. Annoyingly Killourney's steeple trial isn't available to view from back in April and he did win a maiden hurdle at Casterton the following month. He was very poor next up though and has run OK in two starts on the flat since.

 

Quiet Escape made a very promising hurdle debut at Warrnambool in May, but hasn't really gone on from that. He wasn't asked for much in his steeple trial. If Tom Foolery gets in he has looked very good in his steeple trials, but that did not transfer to his run at Hamilton where he failed to finish. The 3^rd at Sale back over hurdles was nothing special either as he was well beaten. He beat Nelson 20L in his last trial, but he was certainly asked a lot more than the 2nd.

 

I put up So Belafonte as a place only bet at Sale and he duly ran well to finish 3rd. He had previously run well when 2^nd on the opening day and then hated the ground at Warrnambool in May. He should get his ideal ground here and has ticked over for this with a run on the flat a couple of weeks ago. He's a massive price again and I just don't understand why as I think he can show a bit of improvement from the Sale 3rd. He might not be good enough to win, but we know he is solid and handles fences so at massive odds he's worth a shot that he can at least be in the top 3 again.

 

So Belafonte 0.5pts e/w @ 30/1 with Bet365

 

Race 6

The feature chase on the card is the Mosstrooper and it should see the return to the winners enclosure of Stern Idol. He bolted up over course and distance in April and then just didn't stay in very testing ground in the Grand Annual when failing to finish. If he doesn't win this with ease I would be very surprised as he has a fair bit in hand and has looked good in 2 trials since. Valac is decent, but he had an issue when disappointing in the Australian Steeplechase last time so might need this. Bee Tee Junior might end up chasing him home again as he did here in April. It wouldn't surprise me if Stern Idol ends up going off even shorter than the 2/5 available at the moment.

[Australian Jumps Season 2023]

About the only thing I got right, but at least at big odds and glad I kept the faith. I also got paid out the e/w part on Under The Bridge despite their being 7 runners. Some cracking racing though and sets things up nicely for the big races still to come.

[Australian Jumps Season 2023]

Shame we lost Casterton last week, but we have a fantastic card to look forward to at Warrnambool on Sunday morning with a few ex UK horses in action across the 6 races.

Race 1

In the 3 and a bit seasons I have been punting on Aussie jumps racing I don't remember seeing a 3yo run in a race, but that happens in the 1^st division of the maiden hurdle. Gwem Goes Further has only had 4 starts on the flat and has had a couple of hurdle trials last month and it is the one here that interests me. Whilst you can never go overboard about the form he did have Bee Tee Junior and Wil John behind as well as Hogan who runs in this. What I liked about the effort is he jumped and well and given he was a bit keen early on his jockey let him stride out and he was still strong over the line. In a proper race he will want to settle a bit better, but he seemed to enjoy his jumping which is crucial. Hogan has been running OK on the flat and jumped well also but I prefer the 3yo.

 

The Rattlin' Bog is the market leader based on the 2^nd to Teofilo Star over course and distance in May. The ground is going to be very different though and he looked booked for only 3^rd when falling at 2 out at Hamilton. He was 6^th in a flat race last week at Werribee.

 

Praise The Power has shown some ability so far with a 3^rd at Casterton and then a 4^th at Hamilton, but he will probably have to improve again to land this. Raise Your Sights bled on hurdles debut last year so we can ignore that effort, but he came into the race in better form on the flat than he does now. He was 2^nd in a trial behind Stern Idol last time and jumped well, but the rest never really tried to catch him up so he might be flattered by that a bit.

 

I put up Capelliani last week and I have to do so again at a massive price. As I said then the concern is he's just lost his form totally, but on his hurdles form last year he would be a single figure price for this so I will take a chance and this doesn't look a strong race. Annoyingly we are down to 2 places though. The Rattlin' Bog is the right favourite, but as well as Capelliani I will be backing Gwem Goes Further as there was plenty to like about his hurdles trial last time and he had some good horses behind him.

 

Gwem Goes Further 1pt @ 5/1 with Paddy Power and Betfair

Capelliani 0.5pts e/w @ 25/1 with William Hill

 

Race 2

Le Baol is another ex-European horse going hurdling. He started life in France and won a listed race before having one start and well beaten by Trueshan in the Old Rowley Cup in October 2019. Just under a year later he won on his first start in Australia, but he hasn't won since. He has been in good form on the flat though as he was 4^th in the Warrnambool Cup in May and then he ran really well at Flemington last time when 4^th behind Port Guillaume. There was a really strong wind that day and he was stuck on the outside feeling the full force of it so he comes out with plenty of credit. He jumped well in his last trial so that shouldn't be an issue.

 

Dashing Willoughby has another go over hurdles, but I was a bit disappointed with him over course and distance a couple of weeks ago and I don't think here was any improvement from his Hamilton 2nd. I think he might need a weaker race. 

 

Mount Stewart is interesting as he landed a bumper for Shaun Crawford at Newcastle in November 2020 beating Tommy's Oscar into 2^nd place. They then sold him for £80k to current connections and he won on debut in Oz at Coleraine in August 2021. Not surprisingly he was sent off an odds on fav on his hurdles debut at Ballarat, but after travelling really well into the race he didn't respond to pressure. However he was found to be lame after the race and he wasn't seen again until a jumpout in May so clearly it was a bad injury to keep him off for so long. He only beat one home on the flat at Geelong last month, but it wasn't a bad run for his first proper race back. I thought he trialled nicely 4 days later as well as he saw the trial out well and jumped well. He might need the run, but I think it is very interesting that they are going straight back over hurdles with him rather than give him another flat run.

 

Nothin' Leica High ran well at Sale last time in handicap company when 2nd, but that was a weak race and this is stronger on paper. South Pacific ran well enough to finish 3^rd at Hamilton just behind Dashing Willoughby. He landed the 2019 King George V Stakes at Royal Ascot and whilst he isn't as good now if he improves for that first hurdles run he's not without a chance.

 

I can fully understand why Le Baol is odds on for this and he's the most likely winner, but I think Mount Stewart is worth backing e/w. He was looking very good before going lame at Ballarat and whilst he might need another run, he has the potential to be a really good horse over jumps so I will take a chance on him at a fair price.

 

Mount Stewart 0.5pts e/w @ 6/1 with Bet365 and William Hill

 

Race 3

This is a handicap for horses that have won once over hurdles. That usually is a maiden win, but Bedford won a 0-114 hurdle at Coleraine last August. He'd need to improve on tat and has yet to be seen over hurdles this season, but to be fair he did run well on the flat 3 weeks ago at Mornington. Speaking of the flat Frankenstar ran over 3600m on Thursday at Bendigo when finishing a good 4th. He beat King's Charisma at Hamilton on his hurdles debut and then was a little disappointing over course and distance when 4th. I'm not sure that form is good enough although you could argue that Rising Renown is overpriced based on it. King's Charisma went onto win a course and distance maiden a couple of weeks ago although I'm not sure how strong the form is.

 

The favourite is Impulsar and he was well touted ahead of winning a maiden here in May in decent enough style. He then went into handicap company at Sandown and was a big disappointment finishing a well beaten 6th. Clearly you need to forgive that effort to want to back him here, but I think it is worth doing so as I suspect he is the best horse in the race and outside of him I think the race is quite trappy.

 

Impulsar 1pt @ 6/4 with Bet365

 

Race 4

The Lafferty Hurdle sees the return of Wil John who turned out to be a superb hurdler in 2021 when he won 3 including the previous race on this card. The final win came in the Grand National Hurdle at Sandown when beating Inayforhay and Instigator who both reoppose here. After that he won a good race at Caulfield and took out the longest flat race in Australia, the Jericho Cup, over 4600m at Warrnambool. He sadly got injured which meant he had to miss last year. He has been working his way back to fitness with trials and runs on the flat since the end of February and I liked the way he trialled last week here. For me the only question if he will be fit enough because I think he's the best horse in the race. 

 

His main rival ought to be Circle The Sun who has looked really impressive this season by winning 3/3 over hurdles including the Australian Hurdle last time. A couple of weeks ago he went back to the flat here and was just beaten into 2^nd place so he continues to be in good form. Still that was a 0-58 and it is nowhere near the level Wil John has shown on the flat. Clearly though he is a much better hurdler and will have the fitness edge.

 

Instigator, Blandford Lad, Fabalot and Cleaver are all just behind in the betting, but I would be surprised if any of those were good enough. They are all solid horses who have been running well this season, but they all have a bit to find to beat either of the other two.

 

The other interesting runner for me though has to be Bell Ex One. I've done my money on him both hurdle starts this season as he ran a shocker 1^st up and then unseated at the7^th when still going well at Hamilton. He's had a flat run since where his jockey kicked for home plenty early enough and he got caught in the closing stages by San Remo who has won again since. As I keep saying after his 3^rd at Cheltenham last year I thought he had the potential to be the best hurdler in Australia and so he proved by beating Stern Idol in the JJ Houlahan at Ballarat. Clearly he's not run up to that level over hurdles this season, but if he shows that form he's got a huge chance of winning this and I can't let him go unbacked at a double figure price.

 

The main bet though will be Wil John as I'm such a big fan and I think he will be fit enough to take this.

 

Wil John 1.5pts @ 13/5 with Bet365

Bell Ex One 0.5pts e/w @ 14/1 with everyone

 

Race 5

Duke Of Bedford is favourite for the BM120 Steeplechase, but I am happy enough to take him on. Don't get me wrong he was impressive when winning a maiden at Hamilton a month ago and he beat Gunaluva who did come out and win over this course and distance a couple of weeks ago, but that was a really poor contest and we have some battle hardened chasers so this will be a much stiffer test for the favourite. I'm surprised how short Gunaluva is as well.

 

Brungle Bertie is just 2^nd in the betting and he did pretty well last season winning over hurdles and on his final start of the season winning a BM120 on the final day at Ballarat. He did it well that day, but Laylite was in 2^nd and the form isn't overly strong although I would rate him above the other two mentioned above. He might need this though as he's only had two flat starts in May and June plus 2 trials so I suspect he will come on for the run.

 

Roland Garros is solid and the 2^nd last time at Hamilton was good in the context of this race even if he was beaten 7L, but I am going to side with my old favourite Under The Bridge. He under-performed in that Hamilton race last time, but he's better than that and the 2^nd to Tolemac over course and distance in May was a really good effort and he had Roland Garros in behind that afternoon. I think he does particularly well at Warrnambool so I am hopeful he can run up to his best here and if he does I think he can win this. Hopefully at the very least he is a solid e/w bet.

 

Under The Bridge 1pt e/w @ 9/1 with everyone

 

Race 6

The feature steeplechase is the Thackeray and it looks a cracking renewal. Flying Agent was a great 2^nd in the Brierly here in May and I do think this track is where he is at his best. He went to Sandown for the Australian Chase after that and he was a disappointing 5^th behind Tolemac. He had a solid run on the flat last week at Werribee and he should be a big player here.

 

Rockstar Ronnie won a hell of a lot more money when he landed the Grand Annual than he did when winning at Warwick for Dan Skelton last May and he has been a superb purchase for connections. I suspect though this will be a prep run for him ahead of the Crisp and the Grand National next month which are both over longer than this. Clearly though if he did win it wouldn't be a huge surprise. 

 

It was a real shame we lost Casterton last week and Elvison runs here instead, but I can't have him away from his favourite track, especially in a field as strong as this. I do fancy the Wilde stable to win this though in the shape of Tolemac. He was punted heavily ahead of his chasing debut and duly bolted up over course and distance in May beating Under The Bridge by 8L. He then went to Sandown in the Australian Chase and bolted up there as well beaten Riding High by 12L. He was really impressive in both victories and clearly a return to Warrnambool on a Heavy 10 holds no fears for him. Over this trip I think he looks the best chaser in Australia this season so I think he can win this. I will have a small saver on Flying Agent though as he looks the main danger to me and a bit over priced.

 

Tolemac 1.5pts @ 13/10 with Bet365

Flying Agent 0.5pts @ 10/3 with William Hill, Paddy Power and Betfair

[Australian Jumps Season 2023]

Back to Casterton on Sunday morning and one of the best sights in racing, Elvison jumping over the hedge fences, is the highlight of the 3 races over jumps.

Race 1

We start as ever with a maiden hurdle and this looks a pretty weak affair which is likely to be won by either That's Incranibull and Zoffala who both ran on the Sale card at the start of the month in different divisions of the maiden hurdle. Zoffala was 2nd having made the running and it was a good effort, but his form on heavy ground isn't great and I think the maiden That's Incranibull was 3rd in was the stronger of the two races. The winning time was quicker and he has won on a heavy track before so I give him the edge and make him the selection.

I'm not too worried about anything else in the race, but I will be having a small e/w bet on the top one, Capellini. He hasn't beaten a horse in 4 flat starts this year so that is clearly a concern, but he showed ability over hurdles last season finishing 3rd 3 times on the bounce including in this race. The form of those efforts are good enough to see him involved and the only reason we are getting the price we are is because of the shocking flat form. I should add though that a couple of those runs were over 1400m which clearly wouldn't have suited and I have to have a little on in the hope a return to hurdles will kick him back into gear.

That's Incranibull 1.5pts @ 6/4 with William Hill, Betfred, Paddy Power and Betfred

Capellini 0.5pts e/w @ 25/1 with William Hill and Betfred

Race 2

If Zoffala does happen to win the first race then it would be a big boost to Abreed's chances in this BM120 hurdle. I put him up in that race and I can see why he's favourite in this as he was 2nd on debut over C&D before that Sale victory. He might well be good enough to win and it isn't an overly strong race, but at around even money the price is tight enough so I will look elsewhere.

Lucky Plutus won the other division of the maiden hurdle over C&D last month and he's run solid on the flat since then. Gunaluva was 2nd that day and he's done well in two races over fences since so the form looks OK and he has a chance. The one I am going to side with though is Count Zero. Not surprisingly he was outclassed in the Australian Hurdle last time, but there was plenty to like in his other 2 runs over jumps this year having won the first chase of the season at Terang and then finishing a 0.1L 2nd in the handicap over C&D last month. The jockey said he didn't like the ground at Sandown, but he finished 2nd in worse at Warrnambool last year so that doesn't concern me.

Count Zero 1pt @ 10/3 with Paddy Power, Betfair and Betfred

Race 4

I'm obviously going to be with Elvision here as his record round this unique course speaks for itself, I will add though that this is probably the best field he has faced round here. Roland Garros is a solid horse and has finished 3rd and 2nd in his two chase runs this season. At Hamilton last time though he jumped out to his right and given how well Elvision jumps round here that is surely going to hinder him. I do like Elvision's stablemate Under The Bridge, but he was a bit disappointing behind Roland Garros at Hamilton. He had finished in front of him at Warrnambool though so he is capable, but I don't think he's good enough to beat Elvision. 

I still can't believe what Armansky did last week at Warrnambool. He was really backed and he decided to run out at the 9th. I think he would have won, but he was 3rd to Elvision here last month and I can't see him reversing that form. Unusually Elvision isn't even top weight as Riding High is and he was 3rd in that Hamilton race mentioned above. He's a solid horse and runs in the big races, but as much as he ran well on a Heavy track last time he usually likes it quicker. He would well end up being the main danger though.

So I am firmly with Elvision to make it a 6th victory at the track.

Elvision 2pts @ 7/4 with William Hill and Betfred

[Australian Jumps Season 2023]

12 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

Hi Darran, do you get BOG with Betfred and WH on Australian racing ?

Pretty sure you don't although I don't get BOG with them anyway so I've never actually checked.

[Australian Jumps Season 2023]

Well last Wednesday could hardly of gone any better with 4 winning bets from the 4 races. Hopefully we can have a similar story on Sunday morning as we head back to Warrnambool for 3 races. There is plenty of interest from an ex UK and Irish point of view with Kings Charisma, Dashing Willoughby and Nelson all in action.

Race 1

There are a handful you could give a chance to here although I do think it is mainly between the top 2 in the betting. Quiet Escape ran well over course and distance in May and looked like she didn't really stay last time at Casterton so she has a chance. Carisbrook was an even bigger disappointment at Casterton finishing 8^th having been just behind Quiet Escape when 3rd here the time before. and a return to that form would give him a squeak. His stablemate Kings Charisma is currently favourite and he started life off over here. He's run really well on both hurdles start to date having finished 2^nd over course and distance and then 2^nd again at Hamilton behind the impressive Frakenstar. A repeat of those two efforts might well be good enough and give the Maher & Eustace a winner ahead of Coolangatta's run at Royal Ascot on Tuesday. I am however going to oppose him another ex UK horse in the shape of Dashing Willoughby. I didn't really fancy him on his hurdles debut at Hamilton last month as he's not shown his ability from the UK on the flat in Australia, but I thought it was a really promising effort behind a top class flat horse in the shape of True Marvel. That horse had finished 2^nd in the Sydney Cup and last week he was 3^rd in the Brisbane Cup so I think to finish as close as he did, especially as he didn't get a clear run, was a really good effort. Therefore I will take him over Kings Charisma.

 

Dashing Willoughby 1pt @ 9/4 with William Hill and Betfred

 

Race 2

A handicap hurdle where St Leger 7^th and Arc 8th, Nelson bids to get his hurdles career back on track. He won on debut and then was 2^nd to Circle The Sun over course and distance last month. He then went to Sandown where he puled up, but the vet discovered a cardiac arrhythmia so he has an excuse for his poor run. On his previous hurdles runs he has a strong chance. Twin Spinner also ran in that Sandown race and he finished a well beaten 3rd. Interestingly he was behind Cleaver that day and Nelson beat Cleaver at Pakenham. I did think Twin Spinner did well last time though having just about made all to win and he battled very hard to beat Rising Renown. Cleaver has finished 2^nd on the flat since the Sandown effort. He was only beaten a length by Nelson at Pakenham off level weights and now he gets 2gks from Nelson so he has a solid chance. Rising Renown is also in this race although I don't think he can reverse form with Twin Spinner or Nelson. El Diez was 3^rd in that Hamilton race and did us a nice turn at Sale last week, but this race is much stronger and I can't see him following up. The one horse I haven't mentioned yet is the favourite Frankenstar who as mentioned above was impressive in beating King's Charisma and clearly if that one wins the 1^st it will be a good form boost. This looks a decent handicap, but I'm going to go with Nelson. Given what Circle The Sun did in the Australian Hurdle I think the 2^nd to him over course and distance is the best form in the race. Clearly we can put a line through his last effort and we know he loves a heavy track.

 

Nelson 1pt @ 5/2 with William Hill

 

Race 3

A 0-114 Steeplechase and this is pretty weak stuff mainly featuring horses who get stuffed all the time. The fact that Contredeel is 3^rd in the betting despite never having placed in 3 hurdles starts and then was pulled up in a maiden chase last time tells you all you need to know. The horse who finished 2^nd in that race, Gunaluva is one of the two possible winners. It was a solid run although the form is yet to be really tested. He had previously finished 2^nd over hurdles at Casterton and he is the horse that has been backed in the early markets. Also running at that Casterton meeting was Armansky and I thought he ran really well to finish 3^rd to Elvision on his chasing debut. That horse loves it at Casterton so to finish 3^rd to him was a good effort and he would have finished 2^nd had he not been hampered by a horse stumbling at 2 out because he was flying late and just failed to get up for 2nd. He has finished 2^nd in a flat race at Bendigo since so he clearly continues to be in good form. As long as he brings the Casterton performance over their hedge fences to the normal fences here then he is the one to beat for me because I rate that form higher than Gunaluva's. If anything else wins then fair play to anyone who finds it because I find it hard to give them any sort of chance.

 

Armansky 2pts @ 11/8 with William Hill

[Australian Jumps Season 2023]

Tomorrow morning sees the last of the jumps meetings that doesn't take place on a Sunday with 4 races at Sale. The handicaps are pretty low grade stuff although the maiden hurdles have a couple of good flat horses making their hurdles debuts and the 2nd one especially could have some depth to it.

Race 1

Royal Crown is the favourite for this given his flat form is the best of these. So far this prep he has finished 4^th at Warrnambool and 5^th at Cranbourne which were fair efforts. I've watched both his hurdle trials from last month and it was OK, but I wasn't always impressed with his hurdling technique so at even money I will look elsewhere. He has been well backed.

 

The other main hurdling newcomer is Zoffala and he's running at a fair level on the flat albeit he's been quite well beaten the last twice and was behind Royal Crown at Warrnambool. Sometimes he was very good over his hurdles in his trial, but other times he made little errors so again I will look elsewhere.

 

Aquila Volare and Abreed are the pick of those that have run over hurdles. The former's 4^th at Warrnambool was a fair effort on his hurdles debut, but I am going to side with Abreed. He went into his hurdles debut at Pakenham in April on the back of a very good flat run, but he disappointed only finishing 7th. That was a good race though and I think he got stuck in the mud as he was much better last time at Casterton when finishing 2^nd to Killourney. He was in 2^nd place for most of the way and just didn't have enough left late on to repeal the winner. That race was over 3500m so the drop back to 3240m ought to suit. The ground that day should be similar to what he will face here and I will take his hurdling experience over the newcomers.

 

Abreed 1pt @ 14/5 with Bet365

 

Race 2

This could be quite a decent maiden. Aquileon easily has the best form of those who have run over hurdles so far with his 3^rd behind Teofilo Star at Warrnambool. The 2^nd ran well enough on his next start before falling and the 4^th won the maiden steeplechase last week. Chance that form might be good enough, but there are a few promising newcomers.

 

Mahamedeis has plenty of class on the flat and has been running in very good races this prep. He showed enough to me that he will make a handy hurdler. 

 

The other newcomers wouldn't be as classy on the level, but I thought their trails all looked decent. Alexander Hamilton's last hurdles trial was 2 months ago, but he jumped well enough and has been in good form at a lowly level on the flat since. Poleaxed looked to enjoy his jumping in his trial last time and then he went onto win a BM58 at Geelong 3 weeks ago. That's Incranibull has some fair flat form as well and he jumped well on his trail last time in behind the top class Wil John.

 

Flat ability doesn't always win out, but given the ground looks like being quick for a jumps meeting in Australia I think Mahamedeis superior flat ability will be key. He jumped well in his trials as well and I think there is still a bit of juice in his price.

 

Mahamedeis 1pt @ 8/5 with Bet365

 

Race 3

This is a 0-114 hurdle and it is pretty weak stuff. I'm surprised to see Cernan as favourite as his hurdles profile is not great having won once in 8 starts and never hitting the frame otherwise. He has been in good form on the level though and won on his last start so I'm guessing that's why he heads the betting, but I'm happy to look elsewhere.

 

El Diez is interesting as I think he is in a race he is actually capable of winning which doesn't happen very often. He was a staying on 3^rd at Hamilton last time and his jockey didn't really ask him for an effort until late on. A repeat of that effort though should see him go close.

 

The other one I like is Tom Foolery. I put him up at Hamilton last week in the maiden steeplechase and he never really got the ideal run as he wanted lead and couldn't. He then also wasn't able to get cover and he was pulled up after the 2^nd last. Quicker ground here might well help him and I think in this lesser field that he can dictate things from the front. His Casterton 3^rd in a maiden gives him a chance in a handicap like this.

 

El Diez 0.5pts @ 18/5 with Bet365

Tom Foolery 1pt @ 3/1 with Bet365

 

Race 4

It is no surprise that Castrofrancaru is odds on for this because he was really impressive on chasing debut at Hamilton last week. A few of these were in behind as well and whilst the ground will be very different, he did win on this sort of ground at Coleraine last August. He's 3/3 over jumps now and this race is easier then last weeks so it is hard to see him being beaten.

 

Historic apparently didn't handle conditions, but he won that race last year on a Heavy 10. He is usually pretty solid though so has place claims. Not Usual Dream has been running OK in better races than this including in the Australian Steeplechase last time when 4th. He is yet to win though in 15 starts over jumps and whilst he has place claims it is hard to see him winning.

 

I am going to have a small bet on So Belafonte to place. He was a good 2^nd on chasing debut at Terang in March and then he was pulled up last time in a much better race at Warrnambool in very testing ground. On this better ground he is capable of hitting the frame and is value to do so.

 

So Belafonte 0.5pts to place @ 3/1 with Bet365

 

[Stratford hunter chase night]

It should be a good night of action to conclude the 2023 hunter chase season and hopefully it can be a profitable end as well. David Kemp has had a hell of a season with a very high strike rate and I am hopeful that will continue this evening. As for the going they are putting even more water down this morning so it might end up being on the slower side of good.

 

Prices right as of 8.00

 

5.35/8.40

Magic Saint/Old Guard 1pt double @ 3/1 with Bet365

6.05 

Rebel Dawn Rising 2pts @ 5/2 with everyone (take up to 2/1)

Normofthenorth 0.5pts @ 10/1 with everyone (14/1 with Bet365 and take up to 7/1)

6.35

Quintin's Man 3pts @ 5/4 with everyone (take up to Evs)

7.05 

Law Of Gold 4pts @ 9/4 with everyone (take up to 5/4)

Clara Sorrento 0.5pts e/w @ 10/1 with everyone (take up to 8/1)

7.35 

Caryto Des Brosses 3pts @ 11/8 with Bet365 (take up to 6/5)

Sixteen Letters 0.5pts @ 7/2 with the majority (take up 11/4)

8.05 

Captain Biggles 1pt @ 7/4 with everyone (take up to 6/4)

Runwiththetide 0.5pts @ 8/1 with everyone (take up to 6/1)

 

5.35

Capitaine - Passed the post in 1^st in this race in 2021 only for Sam Waley-Choen to weigh in light. Won the 2m hunter chase at Leicester last year, but was a well beaten 5^th in this. Only run since then was in a Newbury handicap on New Years Eve and he pulled up. This is his trip, but it is a stronger race than 2021 so I'm not sure he will be good enough.

 

Magic Saint - Good 2^nd to Bennys King at Hereford and than was value for more than the 13L winning margin over Diligent at Wincanton in March. Bit disappointing in the Aintree Foxhunters when only 13^th and was 4^th at Cheltenham last time behind Paloma Blue. He travelled into the race really well, but I don't think he quite saw the trip out up the hill in what was a good race. Coped with this sort of trip earlier in his career and a leading chance.

 

Kaproyale - Ground will be ideal for him which it wasn't when he was 2^nd to Sine Nomine here in April. Been very good in points having won 8 of 11 and finished 2^nd on two occasions including to Famous Clermont on New Years Day, albeit he was well beaten by him. Was impressive at Huntingdon last week although the race did fall to pieces and a maiden ended up finishing 2^nd so the form is open to question. Like I say though the ground is ideal for him and this trip should be fine as well so he's one of the possible winners.

 

Avoir De Soins - Hasn't been seeing 3m out in points this season so the drop in trip should help, but his only win came off 91 over 2m4f at Lingfield in November 2020 and I doubt he will be good enough.

 

Due Reward - Had been struggling on ground which wouldn't have suited this season including in a hunter chase at Ludlow where he pulled up behind Fix It All. Finally got quick ground at Mollington a month ago and won over 2m4f having been well backed. The form isn't overly strong as the 2^nd is only rated 82 under rules, but he did win on his next start which does boost the form a bit. Wouldn't rule him out for a top trainer and Gina Andrews is on top.

 

Flaminger - Another one who hasn't been staying over 3m in points and was also well beaten over 2m4f at Tabley in April. This trip will suit better, but he looked regressive when last seen under rules and its hard to see him being good enough.

 

Le Correzian - Was very well backed last time at Bitterley where he clearly didn't stay. There was also a bit of support for him on his debut for current connections in a Mixed Open at Buckfastleigh where he was still travelling well until unseating at 5 out. His win in France was over 2m1f so clearly this trip didn't suit. Didn't show too much in a couple of starts for Henry de Bromhead in Ireland, but I suspect that connections have been waiting for this race given his lack of stamina and the fact they must think he's good because of the money for him. A bold showing wouldn't surprise.

 

Rewritetherules - Was 75L behind Magic Saint at Wincanton and hard to give him much of a chance on that let alone what he has done since.

 

Sending Love - Struggled all season and likely to do so here.

 

Verdict - A few of these have need dropping in trip as they haven't been staying in points, but then you have to work out if they are actually good enough to win. Le Correzian is interesting as he is likely to improve for the trip from what he has shown so far. Due Reward has a chance on his favourite going and Capitaine can't be ruled out completely given he 'won' this 2 years ago. I do think though that Magic Saint is the one to beat. He's shown strong form this season and even the 4^th at Cheltenham last time is better than what anything else in the race has achieved of late. He didn't stay that night and this trip should be ideal for him and I expect him to be ridden more prominently as he was when winning at Wincanton. Kaproyle is the main danger with the ground in his favour, but this will be tougher than Huntingdon.

 

6.05

Envious Editor - Ran as well as could have been hoped at Cheltenham behind Fier Jaguen and Caryto Des Brosses and it was an improved performance from Ludlow. Still not sure he's in as good form as he was when winning at Taunton in the first hunter chase of the season for his former trainer though. Bold showing wouldn't surprise, but happy enough to take on.

 

Shantou Flyer - As good as ever at 13 having run a stormer to finish 3^rd at Cheltenham behind Premier Magic. He then went on to easily beat Singapore Saga at Exeter. Given he hadn't stayed 4m last season I was surprised that they gave him another go in that race at Cheltenham last month and he's run well enough to finish 2^nd behind Law Of Gold. What surprises me here though is they are dropping him down in trip to 2m6f which I'm not sure will suit on quick ground round this sharper track. I'd have chanced my arm by running him in the big race. Clearly has the ability to win though if he gets away with that.

 

Solomon Grey - Didn't stay at all in the big race on this night last year when he finished 5^th behind Vaucelet which came on the back of a very good win at Cheltenham. Trainer never has them ready 1^st time out so the 6^th at Taunton can be ignored. He then injured himself and returned with a decent enough 2^nd at Ludlow to Secret Investor. After that he tried to keep hold of his Cheltenham crown, but it probably came a little bit too soon even so it was a very good run to finish 3rd. What surprises me is 8 days later they ran him at Peper Harrow and he was just beaten by Count Simon who he was 23L in front of in that Cheltenham race. I'm not sure why they ran him in that, but he would still rate a contender in this.

 

Dandy Dan - Did really well to beat Caryto Des Brosses at Cheltenham last year and then followed that up with a good 3^rd in the big race behind Vaucelet. This season hasn't been so good though. He wasn't fit first time out at Garthorpe when 3^rd to Law Of Gold and then the ground went against him at The Festival. What was most disappointing was his run in the race he won last year as he was well beaten in the end when 4th. He did win a point a couple of weeks ago, but he was 1/5 and the time was very slow which shows how much better he was than the opposition. The ground should be ideal and if he was in the same form as last year then he would have a chance, but I do suspect that the trip will be sharp enough anyway.

 

Normofthenorth - Has a superb record in points over here having won 9 of his 14 starts including both starts this season at Kimble and Godstone. Both were small fields, but he did beat a horse at Godstone who has won 5 times this season including on his next start. He had a serious injury so he was lucky to even see a course again and this was the target after he won at Kimble. His trainer also mentioned they had planned to run him in the race last year, but he had a hard race when winning at Fakenham. It is hard to know what he achieved that day because the unexposed 2^nd hasn't been seen since and it was a weak race. This is quite a strong renewal, but he is one of the possible winners.

 

Rebel Dawn Rising - A new personal best by someway at Cheltenham last time when 2^nd to Premier Magic. He was the only one to give The Festival winner a race and he just didn't stay up the hill. The biggest worry about him could be the last fence because he ran down it at Fakenham the time before when he had the race won and threw Alex Chadwick over the fence as he jumped it. He looked like he just thought about it at Cheltenham as well although it could have been more because he was tired. Alice Stevens is a cracking booking for the horse and this shorter trip should be perfect for him. Has a massive chance for me.

 

Say About It - Won the Restricted race on this card last year when he outstayed the 2nd. Hasn't done too badly this season running against some good horses, but bumps into some good horses here as well and hard to see him winning this.

 

Minella Encore - His jockey Talor Hopkins has little experience, but she has done well on this horse who used to be trained by Dr Newland having won 3 times on him this season. His worst run of the season was when he pulled up behind Shantou Flyer at Chaddesley Corbett over Christmas, but Talor said he hated the sticky ground that day which won't be a problem here. Still got a rating of 128 under rules and whilst he probably isn't up to that anymore this test does look ideal for him so a bold showing wouldn't surprise.

 

Wheesht - Been well beaten in a couple of hunter chases this season and whilst he did win a point over 2m4f at Eyton over Easter I doubt he will be good enough here.

 

Verdict - This is a decent race and I'd only really completely rule out Say About It and Whessht. Having said that I am very keen on Rebel Dawn Rising. He looks an improved horse this season and would have bolted up at Fakenham had he not messed around before the last. He was the only horse to give Premier Magic a race at Cheltenham and this trip should be much more suitable for him. Shantou Flyer clearly has the class, but I think they have him in the wrong race again and he will be tapped for toe round here over this trip. I am going to have a small e/w saver on Normofthenorth as this race has been the target and he has looked a progressive horse. Solomon Grey would be next in line.

 

6.35

Brave Starlight - Was a pretty weak maiden he won over in Ireland, but the 3^rd in a Tipperary hunter chase on his next start wasn't a bad effort. Even so he wouldn't appear to be good enough for this on his first start for David Dennis.

 

Dunworley - Would be some feat if he were to win this as a maiden and I guess given the prize money on offer they may as well have a go as even if he finishes last he gets £306. Was very well backed at Huntingdon last week which seemed bizarre given his form, but he ran well to finish 2nd. I do think that race fell apart a bit though and I'd be surprised if he was up to this.

 

Matthews Hill - Was 2^nd in the Bishopscourt Cup at the Punchestown Festival, but given the race conditions for that contest it is one of the worst races of the season. On the back of that though he was sent off favourite for a maiden hunter chase at Downpatrick a couple of weeks ago, but his jumping wasn't great and he came down at 4 out. Hard to say how he would have got on but it wasn't a strong race and it would be a bit disappointing if he was able to beat the best of the British.

 

Precious Bounty - Is a front runner and likely to make the running. Has got ground to make up on Sine Nomine based on their run over 2m6f here in April, but the rain got into the ground which wouldn't have suited him. He then dropped down to 2m and ran as well as could have been expected behind Fier Jaguen. The problem for me is I'm not sure he wants this much of a stamina test.

 

Quintin's Man - Loves a stamina test as he showed when winning the Intermediate Final at Cheltenham last month. He was really impressive that night and although I wondered beforehand if the ground would be too quick, he handled it fine. He had been 2^nd at Exeter the time before and that form is working out very well as I pointed out when Workin Out won at Cartmel on Monday. With Slievegar winning at Kelso on Sunday that is two hunter chase winners that he's had behind him in his last two starts. He's the one they have to beat although the one concern I would have is the quick ground as connections seem to think he doesn't want it too fast, but there is no doubt he has the best form coming into the race.

 

Sine Nomine - Jumping had looked a big issue especially when she ran in last year's Intermediate Final when finishing a well beaten 3rd, but she has turned that around in some style this season as she was very good when beating Kaproyale by 12L hard held. Now she was the only one of the fancied horses who wanted the rain softened ground, but even so it she did it in good style. She went to the mares race on Cheltenham hunter chase night and didn't quite see it out as she was beaten 0.5L by Miss Seagreen. For me she almost travels too well. What I mean by that is that you wouldn't call her keen as such, but she looks very enthusiastic and I just wonder if that left her slightly lacking in the finish. Clearly a big player in this though.

 

Verdict - The two horses with the Irish form don't look anything special, Dunworley is still a maiden and Precious Bounty would be a stamina doubt so that leaves the race between Quintin's Man and Sine Nomine. Whilst I do have a slight concern about the ground for the former I do think he is the one they have to beat. He is the strongest stayer in the field and I think he is the best horse in the field. There should be a fair gallop set by Precious Bounty so that should help him as well.

 

7.05

Cheltenham De Vaige - Ran well on the Cheltenham hunter chase night for the 2^nd year running when 3^rd to Law Of Gold, but that shows how much ground he has to make up on him and I can't see him reversing the form.

 

Clara Sorrento - Had a great season having won 4 on the bounce in points and he's clocked quick times as well. He might be 12, but he hasn't had much racing and didn't run from November 2018 in a Grade 3 at Cork until last March, a break of 1224 days! I suspect last year was about getting him back and after losing first time out this season he hasn't looked back. He is the yards 2^nd string, but I think he can give it a bold show from the front given the form he's been in this season.

 

Fr Humphrey - 15yo but he seems to be in the best form he's ever been in having won 3 of his last 4 races including causing one of the shocks of the Irish pointing season when he beat Rocky's Howya in April. He's won both point starts since although he was well beaten by Annamix in hunter chase inbetween those two victories and he really shouldn't be good enough to win this.

 

Law Of Gold - Loves it at this meeting having won the John Corbet Cup in 2019 and then landed this race in 2021. Last year he had to settle for 2^nd behind Vaucelet, but that came on the back of having had a hard race at Cheltenham where he didn't go a yard and jumped terribly. This year he comes into this race having finished 2^nd to Premier Magic, winning a point and then having a break before returning in the 4m race at Cheltenham again where he travelled and jumped like a dream the whole way round and always looked like the winner. Apparently the first time cheekpieces were to blame for his run their last year and he looked a different horse this time around. He has a great chance of reversing last year's form with Vaucelet. 

 

Not A Role Model - Has won his last two points but both on soft ground and didn't beat Back Bar by anywhere near as much as Clara Sorrento did. Would be surprising if he was good enough.

 

Secret Investor - Won 3 hunter chases this season and its hard to know how much he has achieved in doing so as he hasn't beaten a great deal. Dieu Vivant is a very beatable horse who he beat at Bangor. At Kelso he had a very simple task and then at Ludlow he beat Solomon Grey by 17L, but he would have needed the run. We would have learned more at Cheltenham but sadly he fell at the first. I won't be backing him, but he is clearly one of the possible winners.

 

Steely Addition - Just hasn't been in the same form as he was last season and the Perth form has been shown up big time in recent days. The Kelso win last year he only beat Graasten so I just can't see him being good enough.

 

Vaucelet - Didn't think he was overly impressive when winning at 4/9 last year, but he got the job done in the end beating Law Of Gold by 4L. He was ante-post favourite for Cheltenham on the back of that and was sent off favourite on the day, but he just didn't see it out when finishing 7^th beaten 10L. I suspect a lack of a recent run, he hadn't run since wining at Down Royal on Boxing Day, didn't really help, but the trainers horses all seemed to have an issue at the time. He then went to Punchestown where I thought he would win, but fair play to Its On The Line who just kept finding and finding and he couldn't get past. After that it was another match up against Billaway at Downpatrick, but he jumped terribly and I thought his jockey made a strange move to go and take up the running. That just seemed to leave him as a sitting duck for Billaway to go past and score comfortably. I wondered if he would come over after that, but I guess as its the end of the season they may as well take their chance and he is 2/2 here having won the 2021 John Corbet.

 

Wagner - Was outclassed at Aintree and will be the same story here.

 

Singapore Saga - A very likeable mare who has had a good season having won a hunter chase at Exeter when outstaying Viroflay on soft ground. She was put in her place by Shantou Flyer and was then only 3^rd in the mares race at Cheltenham and those two efforts suggest that this should be too tough for her.

 

Verdict - I am really confident that Law Of Gold can get his crown back off Vaucelet tonight. He was so good at Cheltenham and that should leave him spot on for this. Crucially he comes here on the back of a better run and he has had fewer runs so should be fresher. I would have him as favourite. Vaucelet just seems to be making heavy weather of things this season although he is a danger. I'm not sure what Secret Investor has achieved in his 3 wins this season, but again I respect his claims. If there is to be one at a bigger price hitting the frame, then the selections stablemate could be it as Clara Sorrento has shown good form in points this season.

 

7.35

Cat Tiger - Non runner for the 2nd year running.

 

I K Brunel - Had nothing go right at Cheltenham or Aintree where he pecked on landing at Cheltenham and unseated Izzie and then at Aintree he was brought down. Not surprisingly he won a match at 1/8 at a point 4 weeks ago which old us nothing, but the crucial piece of form in regards to this race is the win at Taunton where he beat Not That Fuisse. Now he got the best ride in the race, but even so he was well on top at the line so there was every chance he was the best horse in the race anyway. This test should be ideal for him and he is a leading contender.

 

Caryto Des Brosses - I bet connections were delighted that the handicapper decided to put him down 4lbs for his 2^nd at Cheltenham to Fier Jaguen. They had said that this race would be the target after that one and I have to say I think he looks the best handicapped horse in the race. He nearly won the big race here in 2019 when just pipped by Wonderful Charm and the year before he had won over this trip on this night in really good style. As evidenced by his 2^nd to Dandy Dan at Cheltenham last year he hasn't been the strongest stayer at further than 3m, but he's a real strong traveling horse whose best trip is probably this one. He won on his return this season at Southwell, but the ground went against him at Newbury. He dotted up at Garthorpe just before the Cheltenham 2^nd where he proved the drop down in trip to 2m wasn't a bad thing, he was just beaten by one of the best pointers around right now. If he doesn't go close to winning I will be shocked.

 

Zamparelli - Was 2^nd beaten a neck in this 2 years ago and then went one better last year when winning very easily and he has never been out of the first 2 now in 5 runs here. The big problem for him is that he has only managed to have two starts this year and he pulled up both times. A lack of a recent run is a big concern for me and there is no doubt that this race is much stronger than last years so he has a tough task for me.

 

Peacocks Secret - Trained by Dale Peters who rides Caryto Des Brosses which suggests to me he knows who has the better chance. Was 3^rd in this last year behind Zamparelli. Was a well beaten 3^rd behind Bennys King at Fakenham on Gold Cup day, but has won a point since at Higham although more needed in this for me. 

 

Sixteen Letters - I think he has the potential to be well handicapped as well, but I do worry slightly if he is quite as good as he was. To be fair he was never going to beat Famous Clermont first up on New Years Day and then he was a good 2^nd to Viroflay who is better than he has been able to show in his hunter chases to date. He then had a simple take to win a point before falling in the Aintree Foxhunters. What concerns me is his attitude in his two runs last month as he has hung both times. He won the first of them, but was 2^nd last time beaten 7L. On last season's form he would be thrown in off 110, but I wouldn't be so confident about that on this season's form.

 

Santon - I guess you could argue given how close he got to Time Leader at Leicester that he is well handicapped even allowing for the fact he is 5lbs out of the handicap, but I'm not so sure myself. He never got into the race at Cheltenham as he found it happening a bit too quick for him and the step up in trip will help, but I think Caryto Des Brosses will have the beating of him again at these weights.

 

Verdict - An unique contest on the calendar as it is the only handicap hunter chase of the season. As soon as they mentioned this race for Caryto Des Brosses after he was 2^nd at Cheltenham I thought it was the ideal race for him and I can see him making all. I will have a saver on Sixteen Letters as he could well be the next best handicapped horse in the race off a mark of 110. I K Brunel would be next best.

 

8.05

Raleagh Flora - She had a very simple task in the end at Fakenham last time as I'm not sure any of the others really ran their races in the ground, but even so she won by 49L and you can't knock a winning margin like that. She had disappointed in a handicap at Sedgefield off 95 in February, but that was her first run since June 21 where she had finished a 4L 2^nd to Kaproyale. Clearly the move to Andrew Pennock's yard has improved her though because the Restricted win at Godstone hinted that might be the case. The quicker ground shouldn't be an issue based on her efforts in 2021 and she's got a really strong chance in this.

 

Between You And Me - Took 6 goes at trying to win a Restricted and ten only won a slowly run 4 runner race. On his next start he was stuffed 35L in a 4 runner Intermediate. Would be a surprise winner for me.

 

Captain Biggles - Used to be trained by Olly Murphy and back in November 2021 finished a 0.5L 2^nd to Time Leader in a novice handicap hurdle when he was rated 118 and the winner just 94. He showed ability over hurdles, but was a bit disappointing on his one chase start to date last year at Uttoxeter. Olly recommended him to the Ellis' to send pointing and it has worked a treat for the horse. Initially connections were a bit disappointed he was beaten on his debut for them at Chaddesley Corbett over Christmas, but he was beaten by a good horse and the 3^rd has done well since as well with none of the other 9 runners finishing the course. He duly won his maiden on his next start at Garthorpe by 10L, the following month he won his restricted by 6L at Brafield and then was well on top when winning a conditions race at Fakenham. He looks progressive and has done it all very easily so far. 

 

Fortunes Hill - A little bit of a dark horse because he has only run 3 times. He was a close 4^th on his debut in an Irish point last May and then he won a 3 runner restricted at Thorpe Lodge on Easter Monday. He won easily, but it was a very weak contest. He then ran in a conditions race at Charm Park and was beaten 7L into 2nd. It wasn't a strong race though and Pillowman who was 7L further back in 4^th was stuffed at Cartmel on Monday to give some idea as to what sort of form we are dealing with. Like I say though given he has only run 3 times there might be scope for better, but for me the form he's shown leaves him with a fair bit to find.

 

Marton Abbey - Somehow went off just 7/1 to beat Time Leader over course and distance and was duly stuffed 61L. He's been beaten in two restricted's since and they suggest he shouldn't be good enough to win this.

 

Minella Jab - Pulled up on his only start in Ireland in November 21, but has looked fairly promising in 3 starts so far. He won his maiden with ease over Easter and then won his restricted at the start of last month. Neither races were over strong and I would say his best piece of form was when he was a 3L 2^nd to a horse called Ed The Red 3 weeks ago because that horse has had a very good season. A bold showing wouldn't surprise.

 

Mountain Assault - Clearly had his problems as he wasn't seen in 2022 after he won his maiden in May 2021. On his return though he just won his restricted at Garthorpe in February and then took his Hunt Members at Dingley over Easter by 9L. He then went to Fakenham and was beaten 10L by Captain Buggles after getting outpaced and given this race is over shorter round a sharp track as well it is hard to see how he can reverse that form.

 

Ultra Viers - Ran a couple of fair races in two hunter chases in February at Leicester when 4^th behind Time Leader and then 2^nd behind Santon. Was beaten a head on his next start at Kimble and then finally managed to break his maiden when winning by a neck at Garthorpe. He was beaten 7L in his first restricted at Edgcote 3 weeks ago by a horse who Captain Buggles beat 10L earlier in the season, but he helped set a pretty fast gallop with another horse and they had quite a big lead at one stage. The fact he still managed to keep going for 2^nd deserves a bit of credit. He can be keen and I will imagine he will make the running here and could give it a bold showing from the front.

 

Urban Gift - Won a maiden at Didmarton and then a restricted at Edgcote, but neither were very good contests and he was beaten in an intermediate last month. I suspect he wont be good enough.

 

Runwiththetide - Was really struggling under rules for Dan Skelton, but looks a changed horse for Kelly Morgan in her two starts pointing winning both in March over 2m4f and on Easter Monday over 3m. There was nothing overly impressive about those performances, but she clearly has improved. She then went to Cheltenham for the Intermediate Final and briefly threatened to get involved, but in the end pulled up before 2 out. I'd imagine this test will suit better and has a chance here.

 

Verdict - Not a race I want to get as heavily involved in as others on the card. I will have a small bet on Runwiththetide as I think she is capable of better than she was able to show at Cheltenham. Minella Jab could go well and I can see Ultra Viers running well from the front, but I suspect one of the front two in the betting will land the spoils and I just favour Captain Biggles out of the two. He was capable of a fair level of form over hurdles in the past and looks as if he's improved on that this season. Raleagh Flora might have been a bit flattered by the winning margin at Fakenham, but clearly it would be no shock if she won.

 

8.40

Achtung Baby - Was 3^rd in a point bumper at Bangor in March when after being held up in last for half the trip he then moved forward and was 2^nd with a couple of furlongs left before finishing 3rd. He was 4L behind Thank You Ma'am who finished 3^rd in the Exeter contest. That would suggest to me that he won't be good enough for this and he showed little in a 2m4f maiden over Easter when pulling up.

 

Old Guard - Won a point bumper at Bonvilston 3 weeks ago over 1m6f and still looked a bit green so he should come on again for the experience. Hard to know what he has beaten as they were mainly all newcomers, but has an obvious chance.

 

Supreme Johnson - Was beaten 90L in the Exeter version and pulled up twice back in points as well as 3^rd after that. Then went to the Aintree version and he ran much better to finish 4^th especially as he got hampered and slipped. If he can run to that level again then he has a chance in this. Did wear a first time tongue-tie which must have helped.

 

Fountainspinklady - Was a well beaten 5^th in point bumper last April, but showed the benefit of that experience when winning a point bumper at Milborne St Andrew just under a year later. She showed a nice turn of foot to go on and score from Blazing Litten who was beaten 14L into 4^th in the Exeter one of these. The winning time was 4 seconds quicker than the other division and she clearly has a chance.

 

Penniless - Won her first 2 starts over here at Charing and Parham, but don't think either were strong races and the 2^nd ran out at 2 out in the latter win and it would have been a good race between the 2. The winning time that day was very slow and she wasn't great at High Easter the next time. She was last turning for home at Aintree, but she did stay on to finish 6^th about 4L behind Supreme Johnson. Clearly enjoyed the long straight at Aintree so might struggle here if running in the same style.

 

Musique De Fee - Finished 2^nd in a point bumper at the start of April. The winner was unsold at £9k at the sales after that which doesn't say much, but the 3^rd who was 7L behind her has run OK in a Fontwell bumper since which helps add a bit of substance to the form. She looked very green in the finish and didn't really seem to know what to do as she had ample chance to go past the winner. The trainer won this race last year, but I suspect this one may need a bit more time.

 

Theweddingcanwait - Got very tired on debut in a 2m4f point at Bonvilston a month ago and ended up being beaten 50L in 3rd. Did travel quite well into the race so this lesser test might suit better, but still hard to see him winning this.

 

Verdict - Paul Nicholls has bred Old Guard and it was he who suggested they go down the pointing bumper route. I would imagine he will be going back to Paul after this and he could have the beating of these

[Australian Jumps Season 2023]

We go to Hamilton on Tuesday morning for the next jumps meeting. There are 5 races on the card with 2 divisions of the maiden hurdle, a handicap hurdle, a maiden steeplechase and a handicap steeplechase. It's not the easiest punting card, but we have some very competitive races. Also as Oddschecker doesn't have the meeting up yet these are all Bet365 prices and bigger might be available elsewhere.

Race 1

Abreed was a bit disappointing on debut, but that was a hot maiden and he was much better at Casterton a couple of weeks ago when a good 2^nd to Killourney having been on the pace for most of the race. Chance the Heavy 10 ground was to blame at Pakenham, but he has won on a Heavy track before so that shouldn't be an issue.

 

Field If Lights made his hurdles debut at Warrnambool 2 years ago and was beaten just 0.4L into 3^rd place. He clearly got an injury because he wasn't seen for 101 weeks. He seems to have been working his way to fitness and was a good 4^th in the Casterton Cup 2 years ago. With that good run behind him he is a chance based on his hurdles debut.

 

Frankenstar is making his hurdles debut and he won a BM58 over 2440m at Geelong a month ago.  He did win a hurdles trial at Terang just before and jumped well in that and although he was 6^th in a trial at Warrnambool a couple of weeks ago he wasn't really asked for an effort.

 

King's Charisma ran well to finish 2^nd to Pure Deal at Warrnambool on his hurdles debut and he has won a trial back there since. He lost to Pure Deal that day and whilst he was beaten last week at Sandown I still think that was a good effort.

 

Saint Eustace was 5^th when Pure Deal was 3^rd at Pakenham on his hurdles debut and hasn't been seen anywhere since. His trainer/jockey said he would look to ride him closer to the pace in future and given his flat form it would be no surprise if he improved from that effort.

 

The last one to consider is The Rattlin' Bog who was beaten 8L by Teofilo Star into 2^nd place on his hurdles debut at Warrnambool. That's looking a good run given how impressive Teofilo Star was at Sandown last week.

 

I think this is a tough race to call as you can make a case for any of the above, but I think at the prices Saint Eustace is worth a small bet. He has top class flat form and it was a solid debut at Pakenham last time. If Pateman rides him closer to the pace then I am expecting improvement to come.

 

Saint Eustace 1pt @ 6/1 with Bet365

 

Race 2

Australian middle distance flat racing often gets rubbished on Twitter by people who know little about it and they always highlight something like Zaaki suddenly winning Group 1's. What they don't realise is numerous horses go from here to Australia and the vast majority don't do very much and Dashing Willoughby is firmly in the later camp. He won the Group 3 Henry II Stakes in July 2020 at Sandown and was sent over for the Caulfield Cup and the Melbourne Cup. He was last at Caulfield and beat 2 home at Flemington. In 11 runs since he has been terrible and not beaten very many horses. I watched his last hurdles trial, and he didn't jump well to start with, but got better the longer the trial went on.

 

It will be interesting to see how he gets on, but it is no surprise that True Marvel is the long odds on favourite. 2 starts back he finished 2^nd in the Group 1 Sydney Cup at 150/1. That clearly was a huge run and he was OK last time when 8^th in the Andrew Ramsden. I liked the way he jumped in his hurdle trial at Terang. He's too short to have a bet on, but he really should be winning this based on his flat form.

 

Race 3

I guess there is a chance Bell Ex One has gone the wrong way and I can't be as confident as I was ahead of his Casterton run, but he has to be the bet here. Just to remind people that he finished 3^rd in last year's Fred Winter at Cheltenham and was superb in his hurdles debut in Oz last August. For me the Casterton effort looked a fitness run and hopefully he can show how good he is here. Even with top weight he will win this if at his best.

 

Post Guillaume is favourite, but he's been a bit disappointing the last twice and I want to see more before he is of interest. Twin Spinner is fairly consistent and although he was a well beaten 3^rd behind Teofilo Star last weekend, it was a fair return to hurdles. If Abreed wins the first then that will be a big form boost to Killourney who put in a nice performance to beat him at Casterton. Even so I'm not sure he warrants being so short here.

 

Bell Ex One 1pt @ 19/5 with Bet365

 

Race 4

There are only 2 maiden steeplechases during the season and this is the first one. There is a few in with a chance in what is an open race and I will take two against the field. Granted Tom Foolery was really pushed out in his trail at Warrnambool a couple of weeks ago and Furioso wasn't given as a strenuous ride, but he was still impressive in beating him by 18L. I really like the way he jumped the fences though and I thought he ran a nice race last time when 3^rd behind Killourney at Casterton. Given Furioso is the favourite I think the value certainly lies with Tom Foolery The other one worth a small bet is Mighty Oasis. He was 2^nd behind Historic at Warrnambool in March and then was a bit disappointing when 6^th at Pakenham. The run that caught my eye though was at Warrnambool when he was just getting himself into contention when he fell at 3 out. Obviously hard to know where he would have finished, but that was a strong race and he has run a nice race on the flat since so seems in good form. 

 

Tom Foolery 1pt @ 19/5 with Bet365

Mighty Oasis 0.5pts @ 9/1 with Bet365

 

Race 5

Competitive handicap chase this. Riding High has top weight and he ran well to finish 2^nd in the Australia Chase last weekend and he'd run a solid 4^th in the Brierly prior to that. The issue is he has never been placed in 6 starts on a Heavy track and that might stop him along with the weight.

 

Historic won this race last year and having won a weak race at Warrnambool in March he finished 2^nd to Casterton specialist Elvison a couple of weeks ago. For me though this race is stronger than last year's running and he might be a bit too high in the weights to win a race like this now, but he should run his race.

 

Roland Garros would be an apt winner given the French Open is going on at the moment. He has been a bit in and out over fences, but although he was 14L when 3^rd behind Tolemac and Under The Bridge at Warrnambool, I thought it was a nice run for his first start over fences this prep. You would imagine he will come for the run and he has won a trial since.

 

Castrofrancaru won both hurdle starts last season and it is interesting they are going straight over fences with him this season. He comes here in good form as he won a BM58 on the flat at Kyneton earlier in the month. He then had a first steeple trial at Traralgon and whilst he jumped well on the whole he did jump out to his right a bit. It wasn't really bad, but against some experienced chasers it might not help him first up over fences in a proper race.

 

I really liked Hurry Cane's win at Pakenham where he beat Grand Annual winner Rockstar Ronnie. He was only 6^th behind him at Warrnambool, but he just didn't stay the 5500m trip. He drops back to 3400m here and he thrives on a Heavy track so has plenty in his favour.

 

The other one to consider is Under The Bridge who ran a solid race on his chasing return over 3200m here in April. He then went to Warrnambool and was 2^nd to his stablemate Tolemac who franked the form at Sandown last weekend. He was 8L in front of Roland Garros that day and whilst that one does have the scope to improve fitness wise, I still think Under The Bridge has a very good chance of upholding the form.

 

So from those 6 I am going to whittle it down to two. Hurry Cane just didn't stay in the Grand Annual and I think his Pakenham win should make him favourite for this. The other one to back is Under The Bridge who has run really solidly in both starts this season and given what Tolemac did at Sandown, there was nothing wrong in being 8L behind him.

 

Hurry Cane 1pt @ 5/1 with Bet365

Under The Bridge 1pt @ 19/5 with Bet365

[Australian Jumps Season 2023]

Race 2

The Australian Steeplechase is almost a re-run of the Brierly at Warrnambool with the first 4 home all taking each other on again here. Britannicus came out on top that day after a superb move from his jockey when they took the sharp turn back onto the course proper. He won this race last year, but it wasn't a strong contest at all and I'm not sure he's a true stayer at this trip. The ground was pretty quick last year as well and I think it will be a bit softer this time around. He also received 3kg from Flying Agent 3 weeks ago and now he only gets 1kg and there was just 1.75L between them. Flying Agent made the running that day and had a decent lead at one stage before being over taken at that turn. Down the straight he dropped to 3rd behind Valac, but found more on the run to the line to get closer than seemed likely to finish 2nd. I think this trip will bring added to the weight turn around will mean Flying Agent will come out on top here. I also get the feeling he might find more improvement from that run. Valac was 3rd at Warrnambool, but this trip stretches him so he's not for me. 

There is one horse who didn't run in the Brierly who has to be considered and that is the winner of the BM120 Chase at the meeting, Tolemac. This race is obviously stronger, but he was really well backed and bolted up on his chasing debut. At this stage I still fancy Flying Agent to be the better horse, but it wouldn't surprise me if he went close.

Flying Agent 1pt @ 2/1 with Paddy Power and Betfair

Race 4

This is a fascinating BM120 hurdle and a really strong contest. The 3 maiden hurdle winners from Warrnambool all line up here and Impulser is the favourite. He was the big talking horse going into the contest and he made all to win comfortably enough. The ex Joseph O'Brian son of Frankel should come on for the experience, but I wasn't as wowed as I thought I would be by his win. Pure Deal won division 1, but he did so in the slowest time of the 3 and he has already finished behind, albeit just, Teofilo Star at Pakenham in April. Teofilo Star actually clocked the fastest time of the 3 winners and I was really impressed with his 8L victory. His jockey can claim which will come in handy and for me he is the one they have to beat.

The other one to consider is another son of Frankel in the shape of Nelson, who won his first 2 starts over hurdles. He was then soundly beaten by Circle The Sun in the Champion Novice though when a 5.25L 2nd. Circle The Sun had just got the better of Teofilo Star at Pakenham so on a line through him he should have the beating of Nelson.

Teofilo Star 1pt @ 11/5 with Bet365

Race 5

Amazingly given how often he wins Saunter Boy is usually a backable price and he was certainly superb value when winning the Galleywood a couple of weeks ago. Blandford Lad who had beaten him at Pakenham could only finish 4th at Warrnambool, but that race was set weights and this is back into a handicap so in theory that gives him a chance a again. Even so I think Saunter Boy can land this race for the 3rd time running as for me he improved from Pakenham to Warrnambool and he loves it at Sandown. The interesting one is Circle The Sun who jumps up into this company having won his maiden and then impressing in the Champion Novice at Warrnambool. He's only 5 and he might well win one of these one day, but I'm not sure he's quite up to it just yet. Saunter Boy is too short to back on this occasion though so it will be a sit and watch race and hopefully we see another special performance from the grey superstar.

[Racing Chat - Friday 19th May]

Last race at Aintree is a point-to-point bumper for horses that have run in British points. I have gone through every runner.

 

Achtung Baby - Was 3^rd in a point bumper at Bangor in March when after being held up in last for half the trip he then moved forward and was 2^nd with a couple of furlongs left before finishing 3rd. He was 4L behind Thank You Ma'am who finished 3^rd in the Exeter contest. That would suggest to me that he won't be good enough for this and he showed little in a 2m4f maiden over Easter when pulling up.

 

Cadell - His owner was training him for his two point wins in March and April both at Overton. Comments after the race mention that he has been very slow to come to hand and he has shown that in both his races so far. In his Maiden win he was outpaced before finishing strongly to win. The 2^nd has done nothing at all for the form since and sadly had to be put down last time, but the 3^rd was Baron Briggs who you may remember ran in the Buccleuch Cup at Kelso last month and showed he had an engine, but jumped terribly and he finished 3rd. He only had one rival last time and did look in trouble turning for home, but he won easy in the end and took some pulling up. That rival though was pulled up in the Heart Of All England at Hexham last week so it doesn't really tell us much about how good he actually is. I suspect he is good enough to win this, but given his greeness so far you just have to wonder if in a bigger field over a shorter trip if he might get going when it is too late.

 

Douglas Longbottom - Had 1 run in a Larkhill bumper last year when a well beaten 5th, but has clearly needed time as he was off for a year until finishing 3^rd at Badbury Rings. He was really well backed that day though from 10/1 into 2/1F so obviously he was expected to go better. That was over 3m and he dropped back to 2m4f when he finished 3^rd again the following month. He didn't look a natural over fences in that race, but it was clear he had an engine. Easter Monday he finally broke the maiden tag at Cothelstone and again he didn't jump efficiently, but he beat the even money favourite by an easy 10L in the end. This race was mentioned as the target after that win and I do get the feeling he will be seen to better effect without any fences in the way at the moment, so for me he is a possible winner.

 

Fly Awhile Johnny - Has shown very little to date and would be a shock winner.

 

Grandpa's Folly - Was a promising 2^nd when making his debut in a point bumper at Brafield in March when a 3L 2^nd to Roseburg. He stayed on nicely that day, but he didn't build on that when going over fences in a 2m4f maiden at Dingley 3 weeks ago. Maybe bumpers will be more his thing and if he was coming here on the back of the debut effort, he'd be a shorter price.

 

It's Unbelievable - Was a 20L 4^th in debut at Alnwick and then showed wayward tendencies when a 15L 2^nd to Take It Upstairs at Mosshouses. He went hung badly round the bend out of the straight and you do wonder if he might do the same tonight. It was a fair effort, but the winner quickened away from him very nicely in the closing stages and even under these very different conditions (Mosshouses is a testing track and the ground was testing as well) I can't see the form being reversed.

 

Supreme Johnson - Was a tailed off 7^th at Exeter and in 3 runs since over 3m he has pulled up twice and 3^rd of 4 in between those two runs. Tongue-tie goes on for the first time but it would need to work a miracle for me.

 

Wottinger - Looks a bit short in the betting to me based on what he's done so far. Ran wide at a bend on debut in a bumper at Alnwick in January and ended up finishing 3rd. Has been 2^nd in 2 2m4f maidens since, both last month, but he looked in need of further not shorter and others have shown better form so far.

 

Penniless - Won her first 2 starts over here at Charing and Parham, but don't think either were strong races and the 2^nd ran out at 2 out in the latter win and it would have been a good race between the 2. The winning time that day was very slow and she wasn't great at High Easter last time. I suspect she wont be good enough.

 

Roseburg - Was a well beaten 3^rd behind Clover All Over who did win the Exeter contest and she looked like she would benefit form the run which is exactly what happened when she won at Brafield in March. Her jockey said she has a high cruising speed and that he was expecting them to get to him, but she found more again. Her trainer expects her to keep improving and will be an even better horse next year, but she might well land this first.

 

Delilah Bucks - Was promoted to 3^rd on debut at Sandon over Easter and given there were 4 horses separated by a length it is hard to know what the form is worth. The winning time was 7 seconds slower than the first division though and all 4 horses were carrying 13lbs less. Maybe she wasn't able to show her true ability because of that, but for me the percentage call is to oppose.

 

Hazels Delight - Won a 2m4f mares maiden in comfortable fashion at Cothelstone in March, but it wasn't a strong contest despite the big field and she was given a pretty low rating on the back of it. The time was slow as well. You always have to respect a young horse from the Poste yard, but I prefer others to win this.

 

Saunton Surf - Only had 3 rivals to beat on debut at Maisemore at the end of March but she did so in dominate fashion. Hard to know what she beat in that bumper, but the 3^rd had finished a good 2^nd on debut so that adds a little bit of substance to the form. Clearly the trainer knows what he's doing and I did like the way she quickened away from them. Looks a leading contender.

 

Take It Upstairs - Got hampered at about half way at Alnwick on debut and then still looked green in the finish when finishing 2nd. They pulled a long way clear of the 3^rd and then as mentioned above she quickened away in really nice style to easily beat It's Unbelievable at Mosshouses. On balance I think it was probably the most impressive performance I saw whilst looking at the videos, but this will be a very different test as both those tracks are undulating and have stiff climbs.

 

Verdict - I think this could be a decent renewal of this race and there could be a few horses worth following going forwards. Take It Upstairs, Saunton Surf, Roseburg, Douglas Longbottom and Cadell look the ones to concentrate on for me. Cadell could win, but he's priced up on connections rather than what he's actually achieved so I'm happy to look elsewhere. As I say just above I did think Take It Upstairs put in the most impressive performance and whilst this will be a different test I have to have her covered. I think Douglas Longbottom is the one that is really over priced at double figure odds as he has clearly been showing plenty at home given the way he has been backed in points. The way he jumps fences though is hindering him at the moment and this test could be much more suitable at this stage of his career. Roseburg is next on the list as she looks progressive and will continue to improve with experience. Saunton Surf just misses out as I think she is about the right price now.

 

Take It Upstairs 1pt @ 6/1 with most bookies (Hills are 13/2 and take up to 9/2)

Douglas Longbottom 0.75pts e/w @ 14/1 with Bet365  (take up to 9/1)

Roseburg 0.5pts e/w @10/1 with most bookies including Bet365 to 4 places (Hills are 11/1 for 3 places take up to 7/1)

[Australian Jumps Season 2023]

Casterton is the venue tomorrow morning. We have two divisions of the maiden hurdle, a handicap hurdle featuring Cheltenham 3rd Bell Ex One and then a handicap chase over their hedge fences.

Race 1

A few of these ran against each other at Warrnambool last week and for me the two to focus on are Quiet Escape and Carisbrook who finished 2nd and 3rd to Impulsar and there was just 0.25L between them. There is an extra 300m to go in this race and the ground wont be so testing, but both horses seemed to stay on well enough and it is hard to split them. I think one of them will win and both are bigger than they should be so I will split my stakes and back them both. Booker Tee was 5th in that race and did stay on, but his jumping was not good and he might need more experience. Killourney was 6th in one of the other maiden hurdles at Warrnambool, but he's starting to look a bit exposed with that being his 5th hurdle start. Abreed made his hurdles debut at Pakenham and didn't really travel at all after knuckling on landing at the 1st. He is probably capable of better, but not sure he can beat the two at the head of the market. A shade of odds on coupled seems fair enough to me.

Carisbrook 1pt @ 13/5 with Bet365

Quiet Escape 1pt @ 14/5 with Bet365

Race 2

Vividredsky is favourite for this, but that surprises me a bit because he was very ordinary at Warrnambool last week and it almost seems as if he's been put in as market leader just because he was short in the betting that day. Obviously there is scope for improvement, but he looks worth opposing for me. A couple who finished in front of him are much bigger in the betting although I'm going to look elsewhere. I thought that Fiorente Lass ran really well on her hurdles debut to finish 2nd at Pakenham. I felt she was running on the worst of the track as well and the front 3 pulled well clear of the rest. I'd have her as favourite for this so will take her to go one place better.

Fiorente Lass 1pt @ 19/5 with Bet365

Race 3

A slight concern that Bell Ex One wasn't great on the flat last time, but that was his first run since Melbourne Cup day and I suspect he will come on plenty for it. He finished 3rd in the Fred Winter last season and then went to Australia and he was superb on his first start of hurdles at Ballarat where he beat Stern Idol. For me it was the best hurdling performance in Australia last season and whilst he has to give plenty of weight away here he is classy enough to still win. I was very impressed with his young jockey at Warrnambool and the 3kg he takes off will be very handy. Heir To The Throne ran OK on his first hurdles start of the season when 5th and this better ground should help him. Fabalot put a a disappointing run at Pakenham behind him when 2nd to Saunter Boy at Warrnambool last week. A repeat of that makes him the main danger, but I think Bell Ex One can win this despite the weight.

Bell Ex One 2pts @ 15/8 with William Hill

Race 4

Elvision loves this unique course and distance. He won all 3 races over this course and distance last season including this race by 25L. He did come into this having finished 2nd at Warrnambool, but even though he was only 6th last week he was running in the Brierly rather than the BM120 handicap and it was a perfectly good effort. It was a step forward from his return at Pakenham and I would be amazed if his trainer hadn't been working towards this race. Historic often chases Elvision home and he did win last time at Warrnambool back in March, but that race wasn't very strong and I don't see him beating his old rival here. Two chasing newcomers in Armansky and Rudimental are the slight unknowns especially the former who has shown a little over hurdles. If Elvision is in peak form though I don't see him getting beaten as he just thrives over the hedge fences here.

Elvison 2.5pts @ 13/8 with William Hill

[Racing Chat - Saturday 6th May]

 

I like West Lawn in the 7.40 at Hexham tonight and he was twice a winner over hurdles last year and I think there is every chance a mark of 85 over hurdles is a very kind one given he won off this mark here over hurdles back in June. He has had a couple of starts in points this year and at Alnwick in January he looked in need of the run when finishing a well beaten 4th. It could be there was an issue because he didn't run again for another 3 months at Corbridge on Easter Monday. He was really well backed that day from 10/1 into 3/1 and he bolted up by an easy 12L. He won't mind what the ground is and he clearly stays well. It isn't the worse race you will find for the grade, but he looks well handicapped to me so looks a solid e/w bet.

 

Without Conviction is the favourite and he had come down the weights and started to run well again before winning in good style at Ayr last time off a mark of 94. He has been raised 8lbs for that and the jockey can only claim 5 now not 7 plus he has struggled off marks in the 100s before. Ex S'Elence looked well handicapped off 77 based on his two pointing wins earlier in the year and so it proved as he won over 2m4f here in heavy ground (it was Cheltenham week and I missed seeing him running that day). He was pulled up next time, but has been 2^nd twice and won again at Newcastle since. The last 2^nd was over course and distance a couple of weeks ago and he is should go close again.

 

Dolly Dancer has been backed, but I am struggling to fancy her. She does have a fair record here having won 2, finished 2^nd twice and 3^rd once from 10 starts, but she needs to improve a fair bit on her two runs so far this year. Event Of Sivola was 3^rd just behind Ex S'Elence 12 days ago, but ran as if he needed the 4m he won over here in November and will need lots of rain to make it a real test of stamina. Skyhill won 3 times last season and loves a test of stamina. Has gone up 7lbs for the last win 3 weeks ago at Sedgefield, but that wasn't much of a race and I think he needs plenty of rain again.

 

Eveque could be a danger as he was 4^th in the Ex S'Elence race here 2 weeks ago which was a big improvement on his 1^st two runs after a year off. He is 0-14 under rules, but cheek pieces go on for the first time and that might just eek out some more improvement. Another danger could be Robert D'Ores especially if he is backed. He won an Irish point by 16L in December and he has got himself handicapped by running in maiden and novice hurdles over 2m and 2m4f. He now steps up to 3m and goes over fences for his first run in a handicap off a mark of just 79. Now he was slightly fortunate to win that point as the leader fell at 2 out and then the next leader fell at the last, but it was still a run good enough to suggest he might be well handicapped.

 

I will have a bit on Robert D'Ores as he has been backed as well. Eveque and Ex S'Elence are also dangers, but the main bet I have is certainly going to be on West Lawn who if he runs as well as he did at Corbridge will see him bang there.

 

West Lawn e/w @ 11/2 with William Hill

[Cheltenham Hunter Chase night]

Must admit it was worse than it usually is, but was confident he would have the class to win anyway and so it proved. I don't think he was at his best, but that was a top class effort because the 2nd is a good horse.

[Cheltenham Hunter Chase night]

Cheltenham Hunter Chase night is here and as usual I have previewed the whole card with something about every horse running tonight. The bets are at the top for easy access and the previews below that. Hopefully it will be a good and profitable evening and Bradley Gibbs might well end up with a 4-timer.

 

List of bets

4.50 - Fier Jaguen 5pts @ 4/5 with everyone apart from BetVictor and Coral who are 5/6 (take up to 8/13)

5.25 - Theshoddytradesman 1pt @ 3/1 with everyone apart from Hills who are 10/3 (take up to 5/2) & Lift Me Up 0.5pts @ 5/2 with eveyone apart from Hills and BetVictor who are 11/4 (take up to 2/1)

6.00 - Marcle Ridge 2pts @ 2/1 with everyone apart from 365 who are 15/8 (take up to 6/4) & Trio For Rio 1pt @ 3/1 with everyone apart from Bet365 who are 7/2 (take up to 5/2)

6.35 - Premier Magic to beat Dandy Dan 1pt f/c and Dandy Dan 0.5pts e/w @ 7/1 with William Hill and BetVictor (365 are 15/2 and take up to 6/1)

7.10 - Highway Jewel 3pts @ 10/11 with everyone (take up to 8/11) & Sine Nomine 0.5pts @ 10/3 with everyone apart from Hills and BetVictor who are 7/2 and 365 who are 3/1 (take up to 5/2)

7.45 - Law Of Gold 2pts @ 13/8 with everyone apart from Hills who are 7/4 (take up to 6/4) & Step Back 1pt e/w @ 12/1 with everyone (Paddys and Betfair are 4 places and take up to 8/1)

8.17 - Solomon Grey 1pt e/w @ 7/1 with everyone apart from 365 who are 13/2 (take up to 5/1) & Fix It All 1pt @ 4/1 with Skybet, Willam Hill, BetVictor, Coral, Ladbrokes and Betfred (take up to 3/1)

 

4.50

Envious Editor - Looked like winning this race last year as he cruised into contention only to then get outbattled by Envoye Special and I never thought I would see a horse get outbattle by him. Landed the first hunter chase of the season by beating Singapore Saga which is decent enough form. He then disappointed at Hereford before running as well as could have been in the Walrus at Haydock when an 18L 2^nd to Famous Clermont. After that run he left Joe O'Shea's yard and ran no more than OK at Ludlow when 3^rd behind Fix It All and Espoir De Teillee. I wouldn't rule him out totally, but I don't think he has the class of a couple of these and hard not to have his finishing effort last year in the back of your mind.

 

Caryto Des Brosses - Has been one of the best hunter chasers around when he's not been injured over the years. He was beaten a neck by Hazel Hill on this card in 2019 and then lost out by the same margin in the Stratford Foxhunters to Wonderful Charm. He then only had 1 run in 2020 and 2021, but returned last year in good form and looked the winner on this card last year until Dandy Dan came through with a late run to beat him. This year he returned with a solid win at Southwell, before running below par at Newbury when 5^th behind Lift Me Up. I think the ground was the big issue that day though and I'm prepared to look over that effort. He had a perfect prep for this when bolting up at Garthorpe a couple of weeks ago in a quick time. It is interesting they are dropping him back to 2m and he was certainly speedy enough for 2m4f in his younger days and I think he will be fine over it.

 

Santon - Looks like he doesn't really stay 3m as he was beaten at Garthorpe a couple of times a year ago in Opens and in his last run he was beaten when falling at the last in a 3 runner Ladies Open at Shelfield Park in March. Prior to that though he ran well to finish 2^nd to Time Leader and then won over 2m4f back at Leicester the following week. That was a weak race though and he can make mistakes which would be a concern round here. He would need the two leading horses to run below par to have any chance.

 

Takethepunishment - Another horse who has had his issues over the years as he has only run 17 times and is 13. Made a winning hunter chase debut when landing last year's Buccleuch Cup at Kelso with ease. That wasn't a strong race though and he was only 3^rd to Point The Way at Perth following that. Has won both points this season although they backed up my view point that he looks a horse to have plenty of stamina. The race he won last time at Overton took 6m 53s to run and he got himself outpaced between the final 2 fences before staying on to win. So I have a big concern about the trip and I doubt he would be good enough anyway.

 

Famoso - Ran in this race last year when a well beaten 5th. He has been beaten 6 times in points this season and remains a maiden. He doesn't look to even stay 2m4f so the trip is right, but he will be outclassed again.

 

Fier Jaguen - Clearly you all know what I think about this horse and he was a bit unfortunate at Aintree as he just pecked on landing at the 7^th which is the ditch on the run to Bechers'. Clearly jumping out to his right didn't help, but the fact he was so bold over his fences meant he just pecked and Bradley had little chance of staying on. He seemed to love the experience though as he jumped a fair few of the other fences with the field. I think he would have been 1^st or 2^nd if he had remained in the race and whilst I am a big fan of Caryto Des Brosses I just don't think he is as good as Fier Jaguen. His 3 pointing performances this year have been so impressive and in the last two the times he clocked were quick and the speed rating he received was very high. I don't have any concerns about the trip for him, because he has such a high cruising speed that he just going to blast off in front and it will be a case of catch me if you can and I don't think they will catch him. I obviously expect he will jump right again, but apart from Caryto Des Brosses is the only horse class who can get near him and I think he will still be more than good enough to win.

 

Fils Spirtuel - Showed a bit of promise in maiden hurdles in the 19/20 season for Willie Mullins, but he hasn't progressed and has struggled in Restricted's for his new trainer. Does run like he needs 2m, but unlikely to be good enough.

 

Josh The Plod - Won a couple of times last year in the South East which is pretty much the weakest area when it comes to pointing. Had 3 starts this season and run no more than OK. Makes the running, but that is unlikely to happen here unless he goes really fast and shouldn't be good enough.

 

Precious Bounty - A solid pointer and his best run so far this season wasn't either of his wins, but his 2^nd to Law Of Gold at Garthorpe. That was the only time Gina Andrews has ridden him though which might not be a coincidence. He is another one who tends to make the running as he did at Stratford last time when 3^rd behind Sine Nomine, but he is unlikely to be able to do that tonight. I think the trip round here will be OK and whilst he will need the main two to disappoint he has a chance of being best of the rest.

 

Reweritetherules - Was a 14L 3^rd in this race last year, but was in better form then so might not be able to even repeat that effort let alone for 2 places better. 

 

Verdict - To me this is a match race between Fier Jaguen and Caryto Des Brosses and firm preference is for the former. I have made no secret of how much I think of this horse and whilst he wasn't able to show it at Aintree, I fully expect him to show how good he is here. Most of these won't be able to live with his high cruising speed and for me the only way he gets beat is he fail to get round again. I suspect Dale Peters will sit in behind Fier Jaguen and hope that he can pick him up on the run-in, but I don't think he will be able to. I'd be a little surprised if anything else won but Envious Editor and Precious Bounty would be my picks of the rest.

 

5.25

All Is True - The Eillis team have won 2 of the last 3 renewals of this so clearly he has to be respected as their chosen runner. He is 3/3 for them this season going through the grades and each time they have bene very complementary about him after the race. He won his maiden and restricted with ease both at Horseheath and then he beat Frisson Collonges by 22L at Garthrope in an Intermediate which is his biggest winning margin. That doesn't tell the full story though because he was in a great battle Lagan Valley until that one decided to run out at the last. I think All Is True had the upper hand at time, but it is good form because Lagan Valley has been in very good form this season and he won next time out. A leading contender.

 

Bonamargy - Did win his Intermediate last time, but that was his 23^rd start and if he is good enough then this race has much less quality than I think it does.

 

Camdonian - Is 3/3 since going pointing for new connections, but I'm not sure there is a huge substance to his form. He did beat a Tom Eillis horse when winning his maiden at Charm Park, but that horse was well beaten next time and just getting the better of Red Opium last time doesn't scream winner of this to me.

 

Frisson Collonges - Held by both Lift Me Up and All Is True and an unlikely winner.

 

Lift Me Up - Luckily for him this is a race which doesn't carry a penalty for winning a hunter chase because he is the only horse which has done just that. I thought there was plenty to like about his Newbury win because he didn't jump very well and he showed greenness when hanging in behind the front running 3rd. Drop Flight was flying home to finish 2^nd and he was 2^nd at Hexham next time. He clearly is a very promising horse, but his jumping round here in a bigger field would worry me. He is named after Geri Horner's first number 1 solo single and her husband Christian Horner is the other owner with her. He has the best form in the race, but on the other hand he is the only one who has been able to show form like that. Clearly one of the possible winners though.

 

Pyleigh Court - Chris Barber clearly didn't see much in him as he got rid after just 3 starts, but he has gone on to win 3/4 for his new yard. The only time he was beaten was 1^st up this season when beaten 0.5L by Theshoddytradesman. He was getting 5lbs from the winner that day and whilst including jockey claims he gets 4lbs here Bradley is way superior to Ella Herbison. The race he won last time was only a match so told us very little. I think you have to give him some sort of chance given how unexposed he is and how close he got to Theshoddytradesman

 

Quintin's Man - He clearly wasn't suited to 2m4f when he finished 16L behind Theshoddytradesman and Pyleigh Court at Buckfastleigh in March and he showed that by winning over 3m and 3m4f on his next two starts. Whilst he will get a stamina test here, I do think he wants softer ground. It was a fair run when 2^nd at Exeter 2 weeks ago, but this race is much stronger than that one so I suspect he will find this hard enough with the ground not ideal.

 

Slievegar - Does seem to have improved for the change of yard as he's done pretty well pointing this season, but he has been stuffed in the same Cartmel hunter chase twice and it is hard to see him having improved enough to play a part here.

 

Tekap - Was 2^nd in the Restricted Final at Stratford in 2021, but that was a shocking race and he's struggled on the whole since including being 23L behind All Is True at Garthorpe in March.

 

The New Kid - Finished 2^nd beaten 0.75L by Runwiththetide at Thorpe Lodge on Easter Monday and the rime was by far the quickest on the card, but that race of 4 was the biggest field out of the 5 races and I wouldn't want to read too much into the time. That was the 3^rd time he has finished 2^nd this season and he pulled up the other time.

 

Theshoddytradesman - Is 4/4 since coming to the UK and interestingly given this race is 3m2f, 3 of those victories were over 2m4f. He was really impressive over Christmas at Chaddesley Corbett when bolting up by 30L and it was the same card Premier Magic and Fier Jaguen won on as well. He stepped up to 3m next time at Chipley and won by an eased down 30L again. I think this was probably his most impressive performance and he certainly wasn't stopping. His winning time was 10 seconds quicker that Quintin's Man in the following race. Last time he had to work much harder for his success at Buckfastleigh back over 2m4f and only beat Pyleigh Court by 0.5L. His jumping wasn't as good as it can be and I just wonder if he wasn't quite at his best. He always looked like he would always hold on though and the 2-month break isn't going to have done him any harm at all. He is the biggest price of the Gibbs 4, but he still has a massive chance.

 

Red Opium - Does seem to have improved of late despite only winning 3 of her 16 starts pointing and hasn't been out of the first 2 in her last 5 starts including when winning at Overton on Saturday. He was a 3.5L 2^nd to Cambonian in a race where they were the only 2 finishes. The time was decent and he will certainly stay as that race measured as 3m2f and he ran like needed 4m. Jockey change a plus, but whilst he is better than his official rating of 71 I would be surprised if he was good enough to take this.

 

Runwiththetide - Was really struggling under rules for Dan Skelton, but looks a changed horse for Kelly Morgan in her two starts pointing winning both in March over 2m4f and on Easter Monday over 3m. Nothing overly impressive and at Thorpe Lodge she was beating The New Kid by 0.75L. I always respect the trainers runners and I suspect she would be very well handicapped off a mark of 94, but I'm not sure she is as good as some of these.

 

Vedict - I am not sure there is as much depth to this race as the numbers suggest and for me the front 3 in the betting are the most like winners. I've had Theshoddytradesman lined up for this since he won at Chaddesley Corbett and whilst he has to go and prove he will stay I think he will. I suspect he wasn't quite at his best the last time and 2 months off will have done him good. All Is True is sure to give it a good go for the Ellis team, but I will save on Lift Me Up. I do have concerns about him jumping wise, but that was only his 5^th start and every chance he would have learnt plenty from that experience and you would like to think his jumping and his greenness will be better tonight. Out of the bigger prices I am wary of Runwiththetide from a trainer perspective more than form, but Pyleigh Court could well have been slightly under estimated by the market.

 

6.00

Bloodstone - Finished 2^nd in 3 Restricted's on the bounce before easily winning one at Lockinge. Even so that form is below what will be required to win this.

 

Bobby Bow - Was missing for 21 months before a decent enough 2^nd in the mud at Ffos Las off 106 in a handicap in January. Wasn't anywhere near as good next time though at Ayr and he was a well beaten 3^rd of 3 on his pointing debut at Chaddesley last month. Not a total no hoper on the Ffos Las form, but hard to fancy on what he's done since plus the trip might stretch him.

 

Fairly Famous - Showed the odd glimmer of promise in 4 starts for Olly Murphy, but has really found his form since joining current connections and has won 4/4. He is clearly progressive and this is usually the weakest race on the card, but when you look at the SPs of the last 3 wins (1/2, 1/4 and 1/7) you realise he hasn't beaten an awful lot. Hard to really put a handle on how good he is because of the weakness of the races he's won and I would rather have seen more substance to the form before backing him.

 

Hidden Charmer - Was a 15L 3^rd in this race last year and hard to see where the improvement is going to come to go 2 places better. Has run OK this season, but did go from being beaten a length by Forest Chimes to being beaten 13L by him last time.

 

Let Me Entertain U - Nothing of the quality of the other two opponents he faced at Taunton last time, but he was well behind from a long way before pulling up and hard to have any confidence about him.

 

Marcle Ridge - On his day has been a more than useful hunter chaser and pointer and took this race in very easy fashion back in 2019. In 2020 he ran a huge race from the front when finishing 6^th in the race that was still known as the Foxhunter then. In 2021 he was a bit disappointing at Warwick and very disappointing at Worcester, but inbetween those two efforts he won the 2m5f race on this card. Last season he started the campaign by beating Famous Clermont at Barbury which even though he has improved since then was still a hell of an effort. He then went and disappointed a bit at Hereford. Maybe he wasn't quite right that day, and he has certainly been a hard horse to keep sound, because he wasn't seen again until this March when he won a Mixed Open with ease at Howick. No doubting that he has the best form in the race and if it is one of his better days then he will be hard to beat.

 

Moratorium - Thought he had this race won last year until Trio For Rio came and mugged him late on. The 2^nd to Not That Fuisse was decent at Wetherby and then he won at Alnwick. Not surprisingly found the Cheltenham Festival too tough, but he ran really poorly at Exeter after that. To be fair that came soon enough and he is better than he showed there and I'm sure he will put up a better showing.

 

Trio For Rio - Has won this race for the last 2 years. In 2021 he was all out to just hold on and then as I mention above he got up on the run-in to beat Moratorium by a length. He came into that race on the back of a pulled-up effort and he's not coming into this in great form either. He's been outpaced in his last two races when a 17L 2^nd and a 5.25L 4^th last time. I suspect though his season has been all about landing the hat-trick in this and you couldn't rule him out from landing it.

 

Verdict - If Fairly Famous did go and win then fair enough, but there isn't much substance to those 1's for me so I think the winner will come from the bottom 3 on the race card. Marcle Ridge has the best form and I would imagine this has been the target for him so he is the main bet. I will also cover Trio For Rio as you obviously can't knock his form in this race.

 

6.35

Dandy Dan - Great performance to win this race last year under a good ride from Laureen and the 3^rd in the Stratford Foxhunters was good as well considering she got caught out a bit round the sharper track. This season he was behind Law Of Gold again on his return at Garthorpe in February where he looked in need of the race in the parade ring before the race. I put him up as a big price outsider at The Festival when James King took over in the saddle, but he struggled to get involved in ground that would have been plenty soft enough for him. As long as the ground doesn't get too soft here he looks the one most likely to take advantage if Premier Magic under performs.

 

Myth Buster - Made Premier Magic work hard to win at Chaddesley Corbett in December when beaten 3.5L in the end. There was 5lbs difference in the weights that day and there is 4lbs difference today so fair to say that form shouldn't be reversed and he was well behind him at The Festival when unseating at the 2^nd last. He has won over 4m this season and was entered in the 4m race tonight, but connections have opted to run Step Back in that (the right choice I hope). I can see him running well enough, but not sure he is good enough to win even if Premier Magic runs below par.

 

Poludora - Was 30L behind Myth Buster in February and that pretty much sums up his chances here.

 

Premier Magic - The Cheltenham Festival Hunters Chase is working out very well form wise. Its On The Line won at Punchestown last week, Shantou Flyer won at Exeter, Rocky's Howya has been focusing on pointing, Chris's Dream was running a huge race until falling at Punchestown, Famous Clermont won at Aintree and Vaucelet was 2^nd at Punchestown. It was a massive shame that Premier Magic couldn't run at Punchestown last week, but seemingly he has this race at his mercy. The only thing that worries me is his trainer mentioned that he is a bad traveller so had sent him to Ireland early to settle in and clearly a trip to Ireland and back for no reason is hardly ideal. Apart from that though he should be hard to beat and on form he wouldn't even need to be at his best to win.

 

Encounter A Giant - Was well behind Premier Magic and Myth Buster at Chaddesley over Christmas, but has got his act together in his last two starts winning a Mixed Open at Bangor and then landing the Lady Dudley Cup back at Chaddesley last month. That suggests to me he is in much better form than when he last raced against Premier Magic and Myth Buster and whilst he wont beat an on song Premier Magic he can run well.

 

Rebel Dawn Rising - Not had any luck under rules so far this season as he was brought down at Fakenham on Gold Cup day and then he decided to jink right at the last back there on Easter Monday and unseat his jockey over the last when the race was won. He didn't really seem to stay when he pulled up in the Intermediate Final on this card last year and ended up pulling up. Maybe something came to light that day as they are prepared to give the course and distance another go. I think he's got a fair bit of ability though so if he does stay a top 3 finish wouldn't surprise.

 

Trappist Monk - Landed a very weak hunter chase at Fontwell with ease back in March and has since had a walk over and a win at Parham. That along with a win at Charing means he has won 4 on the bounce, but it would be a big surprise if he made it 5 here.

 

Verdict - This is Premier Magic's race to lose and the only way I can see him getting beaten is if the wasted trip to Ireland has left a mark. If he's in his usual form then it's his race to lose. Dandy Dan is clear 2^nd best for me though and I am surprised he's not 2^nd favourite so I will back him in the forecast and have a small e/w bet on him.

 

7.10

Sine Nomine - Jumped terribly when 3^rd in the Intermediate Final last year, but clearly based on her Stratford win that has been fixed. She was very well backed ahead of that contest and the money was spot on as she travelled really well throughout the race. Her jumping was spot on and she always looked the most likely winner. I do think the soft ground helped because I think she is the only one who handled it, but given the ease of her success I suspect she would have won anyway. If she brings that jumping performance to this race then she has a leading chance.

 

Singapore Saga - A likeable mare who ran really well behind Envious Editor in the first hunter chase of the season. She won her next two points and took advantage of Highway Jewel's fall at the 2^nd to win the first of those. She then went on to win at Exeter where she outstayed Viroflay and then Darren Andrews did all he could to try and beat Shantou Flyer over the same course and distance last month, but in the end she was outclassed. Went back pointing a couple of weeks ago and toughed it out to win a Mixed Open. Bare form of that race is nothing special, but clearly has a leading chance in this.

 

Highway Jewel - Was due to run in the Festival Hunter Chase the last 3 years, but in 2021 they forgot to enter her, she was injured last year and then this year they decided to skip the race after she fell at Chipley Park on her reappearance. Clearly that worked out well for the trainer given he won the race anyway, but it also proves how good they think she is. I thought she would have had a right chance in 2021 after she had hammered Hazel Hill in a point that season and she then finished a close 2^nd to Latenightpass in a hot hunter chase at Warwick. That year she landed this race and bizarrely she jumped terribly and to her right given she had jumped so well on the whole at Warwick. That has to be in the back of your mind slightly. She had no trouble beating Singapore Saga in her only start last year and was 1/3 to beat her again when she fell. She went to Lydstep on Easter Monday and she made all to win with ease in a quick time. I think she would have been able to win both the races that Sine Nomine and Singapore Saga have won this season and for me she is the best of the 3 runners. They also have to give her weight as she doesn't have a penalty anymore.

 

Kalabaloo - A former winner of this race 2019, but was put in her place by Feuille De Lune last season and she isn't as good as she was back then. Did win last time out at Charm Park, but would be a surprise if she was able to land this.

 

Miss Seagreen - Was beaten 30L by Highway Jewel when 3^rd in this 2 years ago and her running style suggests she might have been better off in the 4m race. She was ridden by an inexperienced jockey first time out when a staying on 3^rd at Larkhill to I K Brunel, but it was a similar story at the same venue in February when ridden by tonight's rider. It happened again at Maisemore last month when 2^nd to Another Venture and given she was staying on in this race in 2021 it seems she finds things happening a bit too quick for her over even this trip.

 

Tangoed - Total no hoper in this contest.

 

Verdict - I respect Singapore Saga and Sine Nomine's chances and would favour the Stratford winner over the Exeter winner. Highway Jewel has already beaten Singapore Saga and whilst she might have improved a little, I still think Highway Jewel is the better horse. Granted she will more than likely have to jump better than she did when she won this race 2 years ago, but that would appear to be an anomaly so I am happy enough to think she won't repeat that tonight. 

 

7.45

Go Whatever - Clearly stays well as he landed the Sussex National last January, but he pulled up on his hunter chase debut behind Shantou Flyer at Exeter last month and whilst he might have needed it is going to take him to come forward a hell of a lot to get competitive in this.

 

Shantou Flyer - Has had a hell of a season given he is now 13. Managed to beat Latenightpass at Chaddesley Corbett in December and then was 2^nd to Famous Clermont at Wincanton. He then reversed that form by flying up the hill to finish 3^rd to Premier Magic at The Festival to improve his fantastic record in that race. After that he won easily beating Singapore Saga last time at Exeter. Clearly quality wise he is one of the best horses in the race, but my concern is that he failed to stay in this race last year. He had only had one start that season 2 months prior so maybe he wasn't at peak fitness, but I am a little surprised they haven't decided to have another crack at Premier Magic instead of running in this.

 

Cheltenham De Vaige - Ran well to finish 3^rd to Dandy Dan in the feature race last year and managed to win a 3 runner handicap at Newton Abbot in August. Returned this season with a staying on 2^nd over 3m6f at Cocklebarrow in January to Just Your Type and then the following month again ran like a stayer over 3m when winning at Badbury Rings. Might not be quite good enough to win, but ought to be staying on when some of these have cried enough and a place showing can't be ruled out.

 

Law Of Gold - I still don't know how he finished 2^nd in this race last year. He jumped terribly and I would go as far to say I have never seen a horse jump so badly, especially round Cheltenham, and still go so close to winning. Indeed, he looked like the winner throughout the home straight and fair play to the winner for finding plenty to hold him off. He had issues with his jumping ran he ran at The Festival in the past as well so you couldn't be certain he will show an improved round of jumping tonight, but it could hardly be any worse. After that he finished a very good 2^nd to Vaucelet at Stratford. This season he has been seen just twice at Garthorpe and given he tends to need his first race there was certainly no shame in finishing a 14L 2^nd to Premier Magic. He went back 3 weeks later and beat Precious Bounty in decent enough style. This and Stratford must be his two main targets and he gets round safely he is likely to go very close.

 

Another Venture - Not sure he's ever been a horse who has struck me as needing 4m to be seen at his best and he has been well beaten in most of his hunter chase efforts to date albeit against some useful horses. Did win at Maisemore last time which was a decent enough effort, but has a lot of ground to make up on Shantou Flyer based on the Wincanton run.

 

Desire De Joie - I must admit he is a tricky horse to weigh up for me. He wouldn't be out of this on his 2^nd to Dolphin Square at Doncaster last season as he ran a hell of a race to be beaten a short head. He then was outclassed at The Festival behind Billaway and I suspect he wasn't at his best when last of 3 at Thorpe Lodge over Easter. He wasn't seen again until that same race last month and he was last again although he travelled well until tiring late on. The yard do very well with the horses they send hunter chasing so I am wary about him.

 

Just Your Type - Clearly a horse who is all about stamina given his exploits under rules when with Charlie Longsdon and he has shown it again in points this season winning over 3m6f at Cocklebarrow and then landing the Grimthorpe Gold Cup over 4m1f at Sheriff Hutton a month ago. This race is clearly going to be tougher than either of those, but the fact he's a proven stayer ought to see him go well.

 

Kilbrew Boy - Only rated 88 under rules and likely to be outclassed here.

 

Port Of Mars - Was well beaten at Stratford by Sine Nomine last time and whilst this will be a very different test I don't think he will be troubling the main contenders.

 

Potters Approach - Beaten 60L in a point 2 weeks ago and that sums up his chance.

 

Step Back - I have been keen to see him run in this race for most of this season so am very pleased to see him turn up. He is an out and out stayer who likes to front run and it was only a year ago he ran a creditable 4^th in the Bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown to Hewick. This season he ran well in a couple of handicaps before not running his race at all at Wincanton on hunter chase debut. He then went to Taunton and made the running before finding himself outpaced turning for him. He stayed on again though and ended up getting 4^th beaten 15L by I K Brunel. 3m round their on quick ground would not have been ideal and he then went to Carlisle over 3m in heavy ground and he ran his best race of the season and only just being beaten by Billy Bronco who thrives in such conditions. I certainly wouldn't rubbish the form because the winner was well beaten at Hexham last time because the ground wasn't soft enough for him that day. He was never going to make the running at Aintree, but he got round safely which was the best connections could have hoped for. I think this race is ideal for him because he should be able to front run at a nice gallop and he will keep going over 4m. The only slight concern I have is if he is still good enough to beat something like Law Of Gold, but otherwise I think he has a great chance of hitting the frame at least.

 

Sugar Baron - The yards 2^nd runner and I suspect 2^nd string despite the fact Gina is riding him. Ran a huge race at this meeting in 2021 to finish 2^nd and then he went on to beat Captain Cattistock at Warwick the following month. Was only seen once in 2022 when falling at Cocklebarrow and in 3 runs this season the evidence suggests he isn't as good as he was at the age of 13.

 

The Whistle Blower - Pulled up in the Intermediate Final last year and I was really surprised to see him go off at only 9/2 at Carlisle given none of his form gave him a chance of beating the leading horses and the ground was testing. He did bounce back at Hornby on Easter Saturday and he won on the card for the 2^nd year running. He beat Black Op which was a bit of a surprise on the face of it. Given that track is a stiff test of stamina you would think 4m would suit, but he ran like a non-stayer over 3m2f last season and he's hard to fancy on the back of the Carlisle effort as well.

 

Verdict - Shantou Flyer clearly has the class to win, but he didn't have the stamina to this race last year so he is very short in my view. Ideally Law Of Gold will jump better than he did last year, but the fact he still went so close suggests to me that he will go close again even if his jumping isn't foot perfect. We know Just Your Type will stay, but he wouldn't have the class of the other two so would need them to underperform to win however he certainly has place claims. I do think Step Back is over priced though as this race has looked the ideal one for him. I think he can get into a nice rhythm out in front and he will keep battling all the way to the line. The yard has won this race before as well.

 

8.17

Fix It All - Had shown nothing at all since coming over from France before turning up in a hunter chase at Ludlow last month when a big price at 16/1. He was held up out the back and even turning for home he had a lot of work to do, but he was relentless down the home straight and after the 2^nd last I thought he was going to go and win the race. I know that Espoir De Teillee hung after the last, but for me Fix It All would have won anyway and he went on to prove that was no fluke when bolting up over the same course and distance a few days later. This is obviously a very different test, but he is certainly a leading player on those Ludlow efforts.

 

Not That Fuisse - Heidi Palin gets back on top after Jack Andrews took over at Aintree where he ran a very creditable 7th. Heidi gave him a good ride at Wetherby when beating Moratorium although she got caught out at Taunton when she was stuck behind horses going backwards leaving the back and that was just at the time Izzie Marshall kicked for home on I K Brunel and that won the race. He needs the ground to stay fairly quick and I do think he needs further nowadays, but he might well get away with it at Cheltenham. If he has come out of Aintree fine then he goes on the list of possible winners.

 

Solomon Grey - Won this race in really good style last year and has an obvious chance this time around. After that win he ran in the big race at Stratford and didn't stay the trip. This season we have only seen him twice. He was well behind Not That Fuisse at Taunton, but the trainers horses always get better as the season goes on. He then injured himself rolling around the field so wasn't seen again until last week in the same Ludlow race he won last year. This time he was a 17L 2^nd to Secret Investor, but he ran with great credit before understandably getting a bit tired late on. I still wonder if he is going to be in peak form just 9 days later, but I certainly expect him to come on plenty for that run.

 

Dogon - Looks like being one of the social runners on the evening as has little chance on form.

 

Magic Saint - Ran a cracking race on hunter chase debut to push Bennys King to 0.75L at Hereford and he then backed that up with an easy success at Wincanton. He beat Diligent by 13L on that occasion, but was value for more. However it is worth pointing out that Fix It All beat Diligent by 29L at Ludlow and I think Magic Saint essentially had little to beat that day. I thought he might run better at Aintree than he did, but he was beaten 55L and finished 13^th in the end. You can always forgive a horse a bad run round the Grand National course though and he has good form over this course and distance so another possible winner for me.

 

Ballotin - Good hunter chaser for David Maxwell in 2019 and if in that form he would have a chance in this, but he is nowhere near that level at the moment having been beaten in a match, pulled up at Warwick and then a well beaten 3^rd back in a point last time.

 

Count Simon - Had a very good season pointing having won his last 3 points. The last two of those though came in the weak south east area and he finished last at Newbury behind Lift Me Up on his hunter chase debut. Would need to leave that form well behind to have any chance here.

 

Dickie Diver - 1^st time tongue-tie, but I am not expecting that to work the miracle that he needs to win this.

 

Funky Sensation - Even though he finished 6^th at Exeter 2 starts back it wasn't a bad run given I don't think he really stays 3m and he ran like a non-stayer. He won on Saturday at Flete Park where he just held on to win by a head. None of that form anywhere near good enough to win this, but I'd be tempted to go handicapping with him off his mark of 85 and it might go down more after this.

 

Oistrakh Le Noir - Looked to have the race at his mercy when falling at the last in a point at Ffos Las in November and things haven't really gone his way since. He was stuffed by Viroflay in March and then last time he looked the winner until getting caught very late on. Solid enough horse, but this is a hot race. 

 

Paloma Blue - A more than useful horse under rules when trained by Henry De Bromhead and he was 4^th in the 2018 Supreme and 6^th in the following year's Arkle. He wasn't a prolific winner though and only won a couple of times over fences. It has been a different story since joining new connections though and he has won 4 of his 7 starts. He clearly still retains a fair level of ability, but I am not sure he has beaten a great deal and there are some good horses in this. Arguably his best run was when he was 2^nd to Macklin a horse who has done well this season. I wouldn't want to say he can't win, but I am preferring the proven hunter chase form.

 

St Barts - Been well beaten in points this season and looks one of the evening's social runners.

 

What A Moment - Only managed to beat 3 horses home in points this season and this 13yo has no chance.

 

Verdict - I think the winner will come from Fix It All, Not That Fuisse, Solomon Grey and Magic Saint and the two I will be backing are Fix It All and Solomon Grey. This is a different test from Ludlow for Fix It All, but it is no surprise it has been a target for him and whatever has clicked for him has seen a huge amount of improvement. The way he has finished off his races as well suggest that the hill will suit. I've a slight worry that Solomon Grey might need a little bit longer, but he won this race in great style last year and he will show the benefit of the Ludlow run where he blew up late on behind a good horse. If one of the other two win then clearly it will be no surprise. Paloma Blue is very short in the betting for me. He has the back class, but his pointing form doesn't really excite me and we have 4 horses who have strong hunter chase form so he will have to be running to a good level to win this.

[Australian Jumps Season 2023]

3 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

Cheers Darran, always nice to wake up to a couple of winners

Out of interest I backed Saunter Boy on the exchanges, the price was good (2.03) but the commission was 7% rather than the normal 2% which I wasn't aware of

No idea on that one to be honest. Could be something to ask Betfair as to why that is the case.

[Australian Jumps Season 2023]

Day 1 was good and Day 2 was even better with both Tolemac and Saunter Boy winning and Under The Bridge even finished 2nd to his stablemate.

Onto the final day of the Carnival and after the very wet and windy weather on Tuesday night into Wednesday morning we are looking at very testing conditions and the 5500m of the Grand Annual is really going to take some getting. The other jumps race on the card is the Champion Novice which gets the meeting underway.

Race 1

Not surprisingly Nelson heads the betting for the Champion Novice having won both hurdles starts to date. Nelson was trained by Aidan O'Brien and was last seen for him in the 2018 Arc when finishing 8^th behind Enable. He was then missing for a year and then ran 8^th in a G3 at Caulfield. He then changed yards and didn't run until February 2021 when he finished 5^th and 6^th in a couple of Listed Races. Since then he has had another change of yards and another massive spell. He had a jump out and two hurdle trials before running in the Stony Creek Cup where he was 6th. I thought he had trialled well over hurdles going into his debut at Warrnambool and he jumped well on the whole that day when making the running and whilst looking in a little bit of danger entering the straight, he kicked clear to win nicely in the end. He then went to Pakenham last month and I tried to take him on because I was slightly worried about him on a Heavy 10, but he went through the ground absolutely fine and was a pretty impressive winner. 

Port Guillaume is an Ex French horse and until he won over hurdles at Ballarat last August his previous win was in a G2 at Deauville in August 2020 and that came on the back of him finishing 5th in the French Derby. It hasn't quite gone his way on the level in Oz, but he did it well at Ballarat and had Furioso in behind in 3rd. I thought his form on heavy ground might give him the advantage at Pakenham over Nelson, but he was only fair in being beaten 7L into 3rd. He didn't exactly look like he would be reversing the form anytime soon although you would imagine he will strip fitter again. 

Sky Hero is in single figures and won over course and distance in a Heavy 10 last June and got his 2nd win in April at Hamilton. As much as he's a solid enough horse he doesn't look to have the quality of Nelson. Cotton Eye Joe was also a winner at Hamilton of a maiden, but that form doesn't look as strong as Nelson's for me. 

Pure Deal (now a non runner) has to be mentioned as he landed the first race on day 1 and whilst I thought Pateman rode King's Charisma too confidently and that he might well have won if he hadn't, you can't knock the performance of Pure Deal and he built on his 3rd at Pakenham. This will be a tough test just 2 days later though with the ground much worse. What I don't understand is why the horse who beat him at Pakenham, Circle The Sun, is so much bigger in the betting. Teofilo Star bolted up in the 2nd division of the maiden to add to Pure Deal's win so the form of the Pakenham race looks rock solid. I do think he was racing on the better ground which helped, but clearly he looks overs here.

I do think Nelson is going to be hard to beat and he is the main bet, but I can't help but have a small e/w play on Circle The Sun because I would have him shorter in the betting than he is.

Nelson 2pts @ 11/10 with William Hill

Circle The Sun 0.5pts e/w @ 10/1 with William Hill

Race 7

The big race of the week is the Grand Annual and it sees the most impressive horse I have seen since focusing on Aussie jumps racing Stern Idol bid to win his first big one. He came over from France and looked some horse in winning his first two hurdles in Oz by 27L and 15L. He then went to Ballarat and was actually beaten by Bell Ex One who had finished 3rd at last year's Cheltenham Festival. Sadly Bell Ex One hasn't run at Warrnambool as I can't wait to see him back over hurdles, but Stern Idol has since gone over fences. He looked some jumper of a fence in his trials and he backed that up at Pakenham last month when beating a few of today's rivals with ease. The only question you can have over him is the trip as we just don't know if he will see out the 5500m distance. He didn't seem quite as keen as was last season at Pakenham which will help him, but if he stays he will win.

Vanguard ran was the winner of the Brierly last year when just getting the better of this year's winner and his stablemate Britannicus. That looked a great prep run for this race, but he was very unfortunate to slip up less than half way during the race. He was injured in the fall as well so wasn't seen again until this year where he had some trials and a flat run leading into finishing 4th at Pakenham. He has been trained with this race in mind though and he won a trial a few days later. His trainer skipped the Brierly with him this year to focus on this race and it would not surprise me to see him run much better than he did at Pakenham.

Crosshill was trained by Jessica Harrington in Ireland and was a winner at the Punchestown Festival a year ago when winning over hurdles over 2m4f. He beat Grand National 2nd Vanillier on his hurdles debut back in 2020 and ended up running the Grade 1 Novice over 3m at the Punchestown Festival that season and whilst he finished last behind Galopin Des Champs he was badly struck into that. He also ran behind the Cheltenham Gold Cup winner at Leopardstown in Christmas 2021 and he finished lame that day so again we can ignore the fact he was beaten 81L. Current connections paid £85k to take him to Australia and it was this race they had in mind. He had 3 runs on the flat and has run well to get his fitness up and there was plenty to like in his trail win over fences at Warrnambool where he beat Britannicus prior to finishing 3rd at Pakenham behind Stern Idol. I thought he was given a very quiet ride that day and he was never going to give a horse like Stern Idol that much ground and beat him. He should be spot on for today and whilst the trip in the ground is an unknown he has plenty of class.

Police Camp deserves a mention as he ran so well to finish 2nd in this last year. He ran pretty well in the Brierly and whilst he might not be good enough to win if he did hit the frame it wouldn't be a surprise.

Some might well remember the name Rockstar Ronnie who was trained by Dan Skelton over here until being sold to go to Australia after winning a Warwick handicap just under a year ago off 129. He's got a decent level of form over fences in this country over mainly 2m2f to think he could do very well in Australia. I was massively worried about the testing ground for him when making his Aussie jumps debut at Pakenham last month because he had been a non runner when the ground had turned soft over here and connections had been keen to keep him to good ground. I thought he came up a bit short in the ground at Pakenham when 3rd to Hurry Cane and with it likely to be even more testing here that has to be a big concern.

Speaking of Hurry Cane he is the last one worth a mention. This ex New Zealand runner has been aimed at this race and I wasn't surprised he came on plenty for his hurdle run at Hamilton when beating Epizeel and Rockstar Ronnie at Pakenham. He looks like he will stay and a heavy track isn't an issue at all. He looks a player in this.

Stern Idol could win this and prove himself to be the best chaser in the country, but whilst we have an unknown about the trip I don't see any value in backing him at very short odds. Therefore I will back a couple e/w to try and hit the places at least. Vanguard shouldn't be double figures for me because he looks all about stamina and the fact he won the Brierly last year proves he loves this track. Clearly very unlucky in this race 2 days later I think he can is going to come forward for the Pakenham run as this has been his target race. Crosshill is also double figures and I can't let him go unbacked either. His Irish form is good enough to make him a leading player in Oz and his run last time looked to be all about giving him a nice prep for this. Maybe it is futile trying to get Stern Idol beat and if he does win then I will certainly be saluting a champion.

Crosshill 1pt e/w @ 20/1 with William Hill

Vanguard 1pt e/w @ 11/1 with William Hill and Bet365

[Australian Jumps Season 2023]

A cracking 1st day with 3 of the 4 winners and I felt that if the horse in the 1st had been given a better ride he would have won as well. Day 2 sees a very competitive BM120 Chase and the feature hurdle of the week the Galleywood.

 

Race 4

I don't think I have seen a BM120 have a maximum field since I started betting on Aussie jumps racing so this feels a bit unusual for me. Tolemac has been very well backed in the early markets as he makes his chasing debut. He was fairly consistent over hurdles last season just winning the once at Hamilton on a Heavy 10 track so we know he will handle the ground. He's had a couple of solid runs on the flat for fitness and he jumped like a pro in his trial here a few days ago. I suspect he has been lined up for this given connections. His train has a strong hand though and Count Zero is next in the betting. He took the opening chase of the season at Terang when I took him on because I didn't like how he jumped in his trials, but he still just about managed to beat So Belafonte. He jumped terribly again to start with in the trial here last month behind Roland Garros, but he did improve as the trial went on. I suspect he will need to improve on that to take this especially off top weight. Speaking of Roland Garros he is also near the head of the market. He won on his chasing debut at Coleraine last August when going well clear and just holding on. It will be interesting to see if similar tactics are used here as I just wonder if he will see the trip out in this ground if he does. He disappointed a couple of weeks after that win when pulling up at Ballarat. 

 

Under The Bridge is the 3rd Wilde runner and I fancied him to win at Hamilton on his chasing return, but in the end he failed to see the race out well enough have travelled nicely into contention having been held up out the back. He should come on for that and he has won here on a Heavy 10 surface as well. I think he has the form to go well in this as well. Lord Pierro looks the other one to consider and he was even more impressive at his fences than Tolemac in the same trial here a couple of weeks ago. The problem is Tolmac did have more speed for him on the flat and I do wonder if he is going to have the ability at this stage to win a race like this. He's only 5 and only had 10 races and the testing ground is an unknown as well, but his jumping will likely take him a long way.

 

I'd be a bit surprised if anything else was able to win. The money for Tolemac is really interesting and I loved the way he trialed so I will have him as the main bet. I will also cover his stablemate Under The Bridge who should come on for the 2nd at Hamilton and at least we know conditions and track will hold no fear for him.

 

Tolemac 1pt @ 3/1 with Bet365

Under The Bridge 0.5pts @ 6/1 with Paddy Power and Betfair

 

Race 6

Saunter Boy won all 5 hurdle races he ran in last season including just getting up to win this contest. I thought he would cope with giving a huge amount of weight away to his rivals at Pakenham last month, but he couldn't quite see off Blandford Lad on the run to the line. Given this isn't a handicap he doesn't have to give anywhere near as much weight away to the 6 of the horses who ran that day and are also running in this. Based on that he really ought to have the beating of them. He is odds on, but he deserves to be odds on and I think he is still value at the current odds.

 

Saunter Boy 3pts @ 17/20 with Bet365