Darran

yossa6133 · March 15

55 minutes after the Cheltenham race we have the Fakenham hunter chase and it looks a really interesting contest. Knight In Dubai actually went to a couple of Cheltenham Festivals when he beat one home in Samcro's Ballymore win and the year after he was 13^th in the Coral Cup. He's not won under rules since December 2019 although he's not had that many goes since then and he was going close off 130 last season. He's gone to James Owen's wife's yard and he has won both starts in points at Horseheath this year. His form under rules was over shorted than 3m, but Horseheath is a fair test so he ought to see it out round here. He had his stablemate Grand Roi in behind him in the first win which gives us a bit of basis for the form, but as he proved again on Monday, he's a hard horse to win with. He won easier in the 2^nd start, but this should be a tougher test. He does get weight from every other horse in the race and he can win, but I think I am happy enough to look elsewhere.

I am a big fan of Rebel Dawn Rising and he has been a bit unlucky not to add to his Leicester hunter chase win a couple of years ago. He made his seasonal reappearance in this race last year and whilst I'm not sure he would have beaten Bennys King, he never got a chance to because he was brought down at the 7th. On Easter Monday he was set to beat Janika and Firak over course and distance until he ran around on the run to the last fence and unseated Dale as he took off. I thought he ran with great credit behind Premier Magic at Cheltenham as he gave it a good go, but he just didn't stay and finishing within 17L of him over 3m2f is a top effort. Clearly 3m round here is fine and he has won first up before. He also wont mind what the weather does as it could rain before the race gets underway.

I'm very surprised Firak is out again after Leicester. He ran way below par here on Easter Monday and it looked like he just didn't handle the track. He more than likely wouldn't have won last week, but the hampering at 3 out meant he didn't get the chance to put the winner under pressure. My issue is though is he never looked like he was going all that well and that's the main reason I'm surprised he's out again. So whilst I think he has the ability to win the fact he didn't seem to handle the track, has around 20L to turn around with Rebel Dawn Rising, and he looked to have a hard race last week means I am happy to take him on.

Ed Turner's horses tend to always come on for a run or two so the fact Janika pulled up behind Fier Jaguen at Garthorpe on his return last month is no real surprise. The problem is he was 12L behind Rebel Dawn Rising at Garthorpe last March and would have been behind him again if he had jumped the last on Easter Monday. He wouldn't be for me.

Dan Skelton has links to 3 horses in this race as he also used to train Shentri. He had been off the track since July 2022 before make his pointing debut at Higham last month. Higham wouldn't be that dissimilar to Fakenham so the track should suit. Whilst he didn't get as high as Knight In Dubai in the ratings, he is only 7 so could be open to improvement and crucially he was very impressive when winning at Higham. He bolted up by 20L there and the time was the quickest of the day. He was quicker than The Big Lense on the same card despite carrying 7lbs more so that makes it a really good effort for me. I guess we have to consider the bounce factor, but more of a concern might be if it rains as has pretty much only run on good ground.

Given Chief Black Robe couldn't win a maiden point last season it was quite something that a move to Fergal O'Brien's saw him win 4 handicaps on the bounce. He started off of a mark of 88 and his 4^th win was off 115. He then went to the Summer Plate at Market Rasen and finished 4^th before getting beat at 2/5 at Newton Abott in September. Back with his owner/rider now he returned at Ampton last month and was 3^rd of 4 beaten 13L. I don't think you can completely rule him out given the 4^th at Market Rasen, but you do get the feeling that maybe Fergal had a fair bit to with the improvement.

All of them have some sort of chance, but I am happy enough to take back Rebel Dawn Rising and Shentri against the field. I think Rebel Dawn Rising is the best horse in the race and as much as he has to give race fitness away, the fact he's won 1^st up before and wasn't unfancied to beat Bennys King in this last year, I think that won't be an issue. I want Shentri onside as well because I think that win at Higham is the best recent form of the season and if it isn't too soft for him he ought to go close.

Rebel Dawn Rising 2pts @ 7/4 with Bet365 (take up to 11/8)

Shentri 1pt @ 9/1 with Bet365 (take up to 5/1)

March 11

As per last year if you have found my preview helpful I am looking to raise money for a small charity called Small Steps who have really helped with my youngest son. It really doesn't matter how small the donation as all money is vital for such a small charity who do great things for disabled children. https://www.justgiving.com/page/amanda-pearce-1686595602869?newPage=true

MCLARKE · March 11

Here is my full in-depth preview for the race on Friday. A smaller field than usual this year, but class wise I think it is up to scratch and it promises to be a good renewal. As ever hopefully I can point you in the way of the winner, but the main reason for the preview is that it provides you with the most in-depth preview on the race you will find and it provides you with the information to also come up with your own mind.

Billaway - You can't knock his record in the race having finished 2nd, 2nd, 1^st and then fell at the 10^th in the last 4 renewals. Given the rest of his form last season you have to think he would have been involved in the finish if he had got round. His jumping hasn't always been great though and that did finally tell last year and he also unseated at Punchestown. He bounced back from that to beat Vaucelet to win a decent pot at Downpatrick in May. He made his seasonal return later than usual this season and he has a terrible first time out record so I wasn't surprised to see him well behind in 3^rd as they turned for home at Naas, but then as Its On The Line idled he railed strongly and it was no surprise that he traded very short in running as he looked like he was going to win. In the end Its On The Line picked up when he got to him and won by a head, but it was still a very good run. I just wonder that given he was having his prep later than usual if he was further forward than he usually is 1^st up. I'm not sure he can win it again, but given his record in the race and the fact he ran so well last time suggests to me that if he gets round he isn't going to be far away at the finish.

D'Jango - Was one of the Judith Wilson owned horses that David Pipe trained who used to run what seemed like every week and he was rated just 100 over fences when picked up by new connections. Not surprisingly he went off a massive price for the opening hunter chase of the season, but he massively outran his odds when finishing a length 2^nd to the very promising mare Regatta De Blanc. That horse has franked the form since as has the 3^rd Bennys King and Shantou Flyer was behind in 5th. He then stayed on very strongly at Warwick to overhaul Tea Clipper after the last and they had pulled well clear of the others. He was possibly a little disappointing in the Walrus at Haydock last time when a fairly well beaten 4^th behind Spyglass Hill, but it was really testing ground that day and I'm not sure he was totally in love with it. The handicapper has put him up 29lbs since he went hunter chasing and I think that is fair enough given the form he has shown. We know he stays well and the ground is clearly going to better than Haydock so whilst I doubt he will win, I think he can run well and finish in the top half.

Ferns Lock - There were 3 horses I saw last season who really impressed me and Ferns Lock was one of them. His wins at Fairyhouse where he beat Its On The Line and at Thurles where he beat Billaway were hugely impressive. Lots wanted him to go to Cheltenham on the back of that, but I thought they were right to give him more time as he needed more experience. He went to Gowran Park instead and although he won hard held his jumping wasn't quite as good as it had been and backed up my thinking that he needed another year. He was then surprisingly beaten at Fairyhouse when Annamix picked up the pieces after Ferns Lock and Billaway got racing from a fair way out. That run though did make me think that maybe his stamina wasn't quite what he needed to be to win this race. This season he returned at Dromahane and beat a useful field with ease. He then went to Down Royal and looked like he was going to win again having seen off the challenge of Ramillies, but he had no response to the fast finishing Its On The Line who beat him by 0.5L. That performance really set off the alarm bells about his stamina for 3m2f around Cheltenham. He bounced back to winning ways by beating a stablemate of Its On The Line with ease at Thurles. What was interesting though was that Ruby Walsh said after the race that he looks an Aintree horse not a Cheltenham horse and I completely agree with him. Even his trainer has come out and said he thinks he might be more of an Aintree horse. If he goes to Aintree I think he will be very hard to beat. On the whole he jumps well and he enjoys being out in front, but although he's not overly keen he is free running and I think at this stage of his career he just does a bit too much to win this race. The one thing in his favour on that front though is the smaller field than usual as he might get away with a bit of a freebie up front which wouldn't have been the case with a full field. My thinking is there is a strong chance of him being in front at the last, but that he will having nothing for the run-in and at least something will outstay him. The other thing to note is he is unlikely to get left alone on the front end and as we saw at Fairyhouse that isn't going to help him either. I suspect he is the best horse in the race ability wise and that he's better than a hunter chaser and if he did happen to stay he wins, but I don't think he will stay so am happy to take him on.

From The Heart - Has shown form that suggests he could win a hunter chase at some point, but nothing in his form suggests he can get anywhere near to winning this and his massive price reflects his chances.

Its On The Line - The horse I have thought would be the winner since he beat Ferns Lock at Down Royal on Boxing Day. Was a fast finishing 2^nd to Premier Magic last year when having the cheekpieces on for the first time. Jumping 2 out you wouldn't have given him any hope of reaching the frame as he was looking pretty laboured and then all of a sudden late on his flying home and had clearly got going too late. He then fell at Aintree, but pretty much made all to win at Punchestown. He did race lazily that night, but what I liked was he kept finding for Derek and whilst Vaucelet had travelled better, he just couldn't get past him and a mistake at the last made no difference to the result for me. It was a bit of a surprise to see him run again in another point a couple of weeks later and finished 2^nd to Rocky's Howya and both horses had long succesful seasons. This season he's 3/3. He won a point in November and then went to Down Royal when outstaying Its On The Line. Over 2f further I just don't see how the form can be reversed. We know Its On The Line is all about stamina and even if he gets outpaced we know he's highly likely to be finishing best of all. Onto that dramatic race at Naas where he first of all went toe to toe with Ramillies and once he saw him off at the last he then started to idle and Billaway came from nowhere looking like he was going to go straight pass him, but as soon as he got to Its On The Line he picked up again and he was a head in front at the line. For a horse to do that having gone hard in testing ground just shows he clearly had plenty left and that when it matters he will fight. I doubt he is going to be left in front here, but to be fair he has also shown he is hard to pass once he gets in front anyway even if he is. The trainer has said he will be putting the cheekpieces back on so that should bring about a little bit more as well. It could be argued that why should he beat Premier Magic based on last year's run, but I think he's improved and I doubt Premier Magic has given he is now 11. Clearly 7yos don't have a good recent record in the race, but he has a different profile to most good ones who have tired as we know he will stay and that he has the class to win. I think a fair few younger horses who have tried just haven't stayed which isn't a concern with him. The softer the ground the better as it will test turn it into more of a test, but it was decent ground when he won at Punchestown so it isn't crucial. JP has no doubt paid a few quid for him last week and I suspect he might well have next years Grand National in mind as much as this contest. He is the one they all have to beat.

Premier Magic - I was put off his chances for this race last year because of the way he ran in the race in 2022. He looked like he hated every second of it before pulling up and knowing that Brad wanted to run Highway Jewel instead it put me off backing him despite thinking he had the ability to run well. In 2022 he was on the inside, so Brad decided to ride him on the outside and it worked a treat. He was always going well and took the lead at 2 out before always holding the fast finishing Its On The Line. Somehow he recorded a higher RPR when winning on hunter chase night on his next start, but he beat a non stayer in Rebel Dawn Rising and the rest of the field were a poor bunch in the context of this race. He definitely achieved more winning this. This season he has won both his starts at Sheriff Hutton and Brocklesby Park. The issue I have though is neither of those efforts told us anything apart from he has four legs still. The 2^nd and 3^rd at Sheriff Hutton have both been stuffed in hunter chases recently and he was 1/10 at Brocklesby. There was certainly more depth to his wins prior to last year's race. I'm not saying for a second that he couldn't be another duel winner, but you are guessing how much ability he still retains because the two runs have told us nothing. He's now 11 and my thinking is that Its On The Line has improved so he will have to have done as well. He seems about the right price at this stage. The cheekpieces which he wore for both Cheltenham wins last season and have been missing this season go back on here.

Quintin's Man - We know the course and distance will hold no fears for him as he bolted up to win the Intermediate Final on hunter chase night last year. You can pick holes in that form, but it was still an impressive performance. He then went to Stratford for the John Corbet Cup and he hated the experience and never really looked happy at any stage. He started off the season with a couple of 3rds which didn't look overly hopeful, although the second of them at Chipley Park has worked out well. He certainly stepped up on those efforts at Wincanton when beaten a useful field in taking style. Lalor was 2^nd there and Paul Nicholls tried to get him qualified for this, but he was only 4^th at Taunton. I wouldn't have that effort knock the form because the race would have come soon enough and it was a hot race. Quintin's Man went to Haydock for the Walrus and whilst the trip was on the short side for him my thinking was the bottomless ground would make it such a test of stamina that it would be ideal for him. He did get himself outpaced though in the home straight, but I still thought he was going to win jumping the last, but I just wonder if the effort of getting to the 1^st and 2^nd paid on the run-in and he ended up in 3rd. I think he needs soft ground to be seen at his best and we know he stays well so he wouldn't be the worst outsider in the race.

Ramillies - Surprised that he is even running in this given the way he ran at Gowran Park on Saturday. He was legless after the last behind Its On The Line before that and I struggle to see him staying.

Samcro - Good old Samcro finally gets his chance to run in this race as he didn't qualify for hunter chases in the UK last year. A duel Festival winner and no doubt the horse that people will get excited about because on his old form he's easily the best horse in the race. He got up to a mark of 160 over fences and 163 over hurdles and there will be those out there who will presume that means he should win this. If he was still capable of running to anywhere near those marks though he wouldn't be hunter chasing. One day no doubt a horse with his sort of profile will win the race again, but horses like him just don't win this race anymore. If he had been able to run in teh race last year I'd have given him more of a chance as he won 3 points by 30L twice and 32L the other time. This season he looks to have gone backwards as he won by just 2.5L first time up, albeit snugly, and then last month he was only 3^rd at Belharbour behind Lifetime Ambition. I thought he looked quite laboured in the finish that day and whilst the winner is apparently going to be aimed at Aintree it didn't look a performance of a horse who was going to be good enough to win this. My other concern is how he will fare going back under rules because he had really lost his way and he always had his quirks anyway. 9 of the last 10 winners of this have had to run to an RPR of 141 to win and I have big doubts about him running to that level anymore. He's a single figure price, but he should be around 25/1 for me. Also as much as he did win twice at The Festival he was also pulled up in the Ryanair the last time he ran here.

Shantou Flyer - Has an incredible record at Cheltenham having won twice, finished 2^nd 5 times and 3^rd 3 times in his 13 starts round here. His record at the Festival reads fell in the National Hunt Chase in 2016, 2^nd beaten a neck in the Ultima of 2018, 2^nd in the 2019 Foxhunter, 3^rd in the 2020 Foxhunter, 3^rd in the 2021 Kim Muir and 3^rd in last years race 3L behind Premier Magic. That is some record and it would be no surprise if he was to run a huge race yet again. He was in really good form last season as he won hunter chases in really good style at Exeter and Stratford and the 2^nd in the 4m race on hunter chase night was good because he just doesn't stay that far (had been 5^th the year before in that contest). This season he won on his return at Larkhill and then was 5^th in the opening hunter chase of the season behind Regatta De Blanc when he tried to keep up with Bennys King at the head of the race and they both went too quick. That trip would have been short enough in a race of that quality as well. He had his prep at Charlton Horethorne on Sunday where he actually won 2 races because he walked over in the hunt race before winning the Mixed Open beating Singapore Saga by a comfortable 3L. It would be some effort for him to finally win at the Cheltenham Festival at the age of 14, but some bookies will be offering extra places (probably down to 8 at least) and he would look a fair e/w bet taking the lower odds and extra places. To be honest a top 4 finish at normal odds might well show a return given his record at the meeting and Cheltenham overall.

Time Leader - Joe O'Shea has had a knack of improving horses by stones over the years and this was another one. When he started hunter chasing he was rated 90 and he is now up to 128 and even that mark might under estimate him. He won twice at Leicester and Stratford last year, before surprisingly running just 6 days later in the mud at Carlisle over 3m which looked very unsuitable for him and so it proved as he pulled up. He then ran a massive race in the Aintree Foxhunters when staying on well to finish 5^th 6.25L behind Famous Clermont. He made a bad mistake at the Chair that day and without it he would have gone closer. After that he won at Kelso and at Cartmel where he beat Gaboriot by 12L over just over 3m1f. That gives a hint that he might be capable of staying the trip here and whilst the 2^nd as improved since it still gives a bit of value to the form given he has won 3 times this season. You will notice that Hannah Roach now trains him, but don't be fooled as Joe is very much still involved and he made a winning return before getting stuck in the mud at Chaddesley Corbett in December. It was no surprise he bounced back at Hereford in January and he won with loads in hand. The better the ground the better his chance because he doesn't seem to handle it testing and it wouldn't help his stamina either. If it is no worse than good to soft though it wouldn't surprise me if he went close, but the weather suggests that is unlikely to happen now.

Sine Nomine - I have been slow to warm to her because you have always been able to pick all sorts of holes in her rules form, but after her win at Wetherby I think it is just a case of her being a very good horse. She made her rules debut in the Intermediate Final on hunter chase night a couple of years ago and she jumped terribly although was still able to finish 3^rd albeit a well beaten one. Last season she had 3 point starts before going to Stratford where she was foot perfect and beat Kaproyale easily. Now I wondered if she was the only one who liked the ground (the favourite didn't) and Kaproyale is better over shorter so I my thinking was she was the only one to have conditions to suit. She then went back to hunter chase night here and ran in the mares race and was beaten by Miss Seagreen. She travelled really well and looked the winner for a long way, but was just over hauled late on. She then went to Stratford for the John Corbet Cup which she won again after traveling strongly. The problem is the form isn't very strong with the 2^nd having been stuffed in handicaps off marks in the low 100s since. First time out this season she was beaten at Alnwick in the mud by Wagner who whilst he has been a winning machine this season wouldn't be a fancy in this so again I wasn't overly strong on her going into Wetherby. On the face of it you could say she has beaten a non stayer in Bennys King, a horse who has needed his first two runs in Windsor Avenue and the favourite Fairly Famous hated the ground so again you can pick holes in the form. However she's travelled all over Bennys King for most of the home straight and therefore if the race had been over say 2m6f Sine Nomine still would have won. Given Bennys King form this season has been exceptional I think this effort is probably the best run from a British trained horse this season. I think she is at her best with a bit of cut in the ground and she is such a strong traveller whatever the conditions. There are two minor worries I have though. First of all her two worse runs under rules have both come at Cheltenham but the first was down to inexperience and I think she will be better off in a bigger field and truly run race which she didn't get last May. Secondly there has to be a small concern about her seeing out the trip given that defeat her last year. I know she won over further at Stratford, but it was a slowly run race and not a test at all. Secret Investor was 22 seconds quicker whilst carrying 7lbs more which shows how slow it was run. Maybe she might be one of these younger horses how doesn't quite see it out, but difference is she is a double figure price and she should be shorter.

Verdict - So we are going to have the smallest field for some time and I think the real reason for that is the lack of total no hopers in the race. As much as I am happy to take certain horses on, you can only say that From The Heart doesn't have any chance of winning the race. If you haven't backed Its On The Line yet I do think there is some juice in the price. He's the most likely winner for me and given the weather forecast it does look like its going to be on the softer side which isn't going to help Ferns Lock stamina. What will help him though is the smaller field as he might just get an easier time on the front end than I originally thought before the 6 day decs.

Sine Nomine is clear 2^nd choice for me and I am happy to back her now. If there are only 13 runners then we might not see many, if any, bookies go 4 places and I think her price might come in. I think she has the best British form this season coming into the race as that Wetherby run was a top class effort. Those two slight concerns I mention in her profile are more than factored into the price for me and I think she should be a single figure price.

If Premier Magic is in the same form as last year then clearly he is going to go close, but it is impossible to know if he is or not based on his two point runs this season and he's the right sort of price at the moment. Billaway's record in the race means he must be respected and again looks the right sort of price. I couldn't put anyone off backing either though if you fancy them.

The final bet to be added is Quintin's Man. Conditions are certainly going to be in his favour and he is an out and out stayer so I certainly want him on side. If it had dried out more then I would have put Time Leader up, but conditions don't look like being ideal for him and that will put an extra test on his stamina. Bet365 have a 6 place market and couldn't put anyone off throwing a few quid at Shantou Flyer in that market given his record at Cheltenham.

Bets given on Monday

Its On The Line 3pts @ 5/2 with Bet365 (take up to 15/8)

Sine Nomine 1pt e/w @ 16/1 with Bet365, William Hill and Betfred (take up to 10/1)

Bet added on Thursday

Quintin's Man 0.5pts e/w @ 25/1 with Bet365, BetVictor and Betfred (take up to 16/1)

yossa6133 · March 11

Granted Cheltenham is obviously going to take most of the focus, but Tuesday also sees the start of the Australian jumps season at Warrnambool and I am back to cover the season for the 5th time. It has been 2 very profitable years and a couple of small losses. What started as something to focus on during Covid has turned into a real passion. All being well I should be taking in the all jumps card at Pakenham next month on my visit to Australia and I can't wait to see some of these horses in the flesh.

Right onto Warrnambool and we have 3 races an Open Hurdle, a Maiden Hurdle and an Open Steeple.

Race 1

There is actually a Cheltenham link in this first race as Crosshill featured in races against Galopin Des Champs and Gentlemansgame among others when trained by Jessie Harrington. He ran a couple of promising races at Pakenham and in the Grand Annual last year and whilst he did go on to win a maiden on the flat his other jumps starts weren't great. He hasn't run over hurdles in Australia, but his last run in Ireland was a win over hurdles at the Punchestown Festival so he's very capable. He's trialed well and ran a respectable race on the flat last month.

He does have to give weight away to the very short price fav here though. Teofilo Star ran in 3 hurdles last year and after finishing 2nd at Pakenham he broke his maiden tag over course and distance in May. He impressed that day and he was even more impressive 3 weeks later at Sandown in a BM120 when winning by 15L. He went back on the flat after that and whilst he was well beaten in the Brisbane Cup he did when a BM100 at Flemington just before. He's not run in a race since, but won his last hurdles trial.

Serenade The Stars was behind Crosshill in the trial at Terang last week. He won the first maiden hurdle of the season last year and was then 2nd in his other 2 hurdle starts. He will be fit from the flat.

If Crosshill could run to his Irish form he would be over priced, but I don't think he's been quite up to that level and Teofilo Star looks a potential top notcher over hurdles this season and he ought to win as his odds suggest although 1/14 is very short. Its a race to watch.

Race 2

Only 2 of these have raced over hurdles and Buffalo Bill has had 20 goes without. That clearly makes things tricky especially as none of these have raced at that high a level on the flat. Tarn's Prince is the favourite and he trialed well against some useful horses last week at Terang. I am though going to take a chance on Elementry. Very unusual for top connections to send a horse over hurdles after just one flat run, which granted was awful. He won his 2nd hurdles trial here and beat Antequera into 2nd place. He seemed to enjoy jumping and his jockey seemed keen to try and teach him how to race. He's been very well backed which whilst annoying in one way does add to the confidence that he's going to go very well.

Elementry 1pt @ 7/2 with William Hill

Race 3

There can't be many horses that have run in the Arc and then won a steeplechase, but Nelson has done that having been behind Enable in the Arc and then winning a chase at Coleraine last August. He could win this, but he is very short for me and there could be value elsewhere.

Police Camp is very experienced and was 2nd at a big price in the Grand Annual last year which was actually his last run. I suspect he will need this.

Mighty Oasis caused a huge shock when he won the Thackeray over course and distance beating the Grand Annual winner Rockstar Ronnie. He had been 2nd in this race last year and he usually runs his race.

Instigator has been a solid hurdler and is making his chasing debut here. He had one steeple trial here and it was OK. I want to see him in a race though before backing him.

Yulong Prince showed some decent form when last seen over fences in 2022. He won a couple over fences including over course and distance and was 2nd to Flying Agent, who was superb that year, in a couple of the big races. Clearly he's been injured since, but he ran in a Picnic (Aussie version of point to point but on the flat) race a couple of weeks ago and then trialed well last week at Terang.

I'm certain we will have some better punting cards in during the rest of the season, but I will have a couple of small bets on Mighty Oasis and Yulong Prince as I think they are over priced and we might just get Nelson beat.

Yulong Prince 0.5pts @ 17/2 with William Hill

Mighty Oasis 0.5pts @ 7/1 with Bet356

jakdhu · March 8

Banbury v Southport

When Banbury first changed their manager they perked up and won a couple of games and drew against Chester. Since then though they have been dreadful and have lost 5 on the bounce conceding 3 on three occasions and 2 the other couple. It is looking like they will go down and they deserved to lose against Rushall on Tuesday night. Southport have picked up in recent weeks as well. They had expected losses to Chorley and Hereford in their last 6 games, but they have beaten Brackley, Scarborough and Warrington (who they beat 3-0 on Tuesday night) as well as drawing against Peterborough. Those points picked up have been crucial to seeing them try and pull away from the relegation zone. If these two continue in the form they have been then the away side are too big.

Blyth Spartans v Kings Lynn

Another side who look like they will stay up now are Kings Lynn and they have had just one defeat in their last 8 games and are unbeaten in 6. They had a good win last Saturday when they beat South Sheilds 3-1. They travel to a Blyth side who are in desperate form having only picked up 2 points in their last 8 games. They will be looking nervously over their shoulders with the likes of Kings Lynn chasing them down and I like the look of an away win here.

Gloucester v Boston

Typical of my own team to go and prove me wrong a couple of weeks ago when managing to get a win over Scarborough. We still look set for relegation, but I think we were able to take advantage of a Scarborough side who are in desperate form at the moment. Whilst Boston have been picking up more points they are now 3 without a win and they have lost their last 2. The draw was against Blyth and they lost to Buxton and Spennymoor which suggests to me that Gloucester might be able to get a result. The key thing for me is Boston aren't defending all that well and with Theo Robinson scoring goals for the home side I think there is a chance of a home win.

Spennymoor v Darlington

I watched Darlington against Southport and Banbury after putting them up in both games and they were awful both times. The difference between then and having watched them beat Scunthorpe 4-0 on Tuesday night was staggering. Steve Watson has done a hell of a job and they will stay up now. They have won 4 on the bounce and 5 of their last 6. In those 6 games they have scored 16 times and conceded just 5. Now this will be far from a gimmie as Spennymoor have turned their season around as well. They are unbeaten in 6 and won 5 of those. It is also just 1 defeat in 9. However Darlington are way over priced for this and hopefully they can land this local derby.

Prices from Wednesday 7pm

Southport 2pts @ 8/5 with Paddy Power, Betfred and Betfair (Hills and Skybet are massive stand outs at 2/1 and take up to 5/4)

Kings Lynn 2pts @ 7/4 with Betfred (Skybet and Hills are massive stand outs at 21/10 and take up to 6/5)

Gloucester 1pt @ 2/1 with 2/1 with Paddy Power, Betfair, Betfred and Bet365 (Sky are 11/5 and take up to 7/4)

Darlington 2pts @ 14/5 with Skybet, Paddy Power and Betfair (take up to 15/8

February 24

9 hours ago, dawwe92 said:

Yes but it doesn't seem to work. I know you used to be able to search for every team specifically before.

Sorry I can't help you then I'm afraid. It's not something I look for very often to be honest.

ThunderDan9 · February 24

Boreham Wood v AFC Fylde

The only team to have beaten Fylde in their last 9 games was Barnet last week and they played well in that game despite losing 4-2. They were 2 up on Tuesday against Solihull, but they ended up drawing. Solihull and Barnet are much better than Boreham Wood though and they have not really convinced all season so with Fylde in such good form I am happy to take them to pick up 3 more points here.

Southend v Aldershot

Aldershot are a bizarre side. They can be really bad, as they were when Fylde hammered them recently, but they then beat two of the best sides in the league in Altrincham and Barnet. They only beat Barnet 1-0 on Tuesday, but it should have been more and they kept Barnet very quiet. I took on Southend on Tuesday and they did deserve the win. They score their first 2 goals for a while as well so that does give them a bit of a boost. A lot depends on which Aldershot turns up, but 3/1 will look very big if they are at their best.

Gloucester v Scarborough

Apart from a 0-0 draw against Scunthorpe, Scarborough have been struggling for points recently. The great news for them though is they get to play a Gloucester side who seem to have given up the ghost and are waiting for relegation to happen. They didn't manage a shot on target on Tuesday against Buxton and only really had one serious chance in the match. The vast majority of fans already think they are down, I get the feeling the manager thinks they are down and it really does look a great chance for the away side to get back to winning ways.

Hampton & Richmond v Farnborough

As I mentioned in the Torquay preview, Farnborough should have beaten them on Tuesday night and it was frustrating they couldn't find a goal. I am however going to take them on today. They have really struggled away from home all season and I am surprised that they have gone favourites to beat Hampton. At home they are 9 wins, 5 draws, 2 defeats and away they are 2 wins, 5 draws and 9 defeats. Hampton have mainly bounced back from their blip and only Aveley have beat them in their last 4. Beating Weymouth 4-2 on Tuesday was a decent effort and they have been strong at home all season.

Bognor Regis v Potters Bar (Isthmian Premier)

Bognor have still to lose at home in the league, but their last two results have been a draw with Cheshunt and a loss to Kingstonian and they are two of the worst sides in the league. Potters Bar have done us quite a few favours this season and they are over priced to win this game.

Acca

Having a look at the fixtures today there were 5 that stood out where teams really ought to win. Chesterfield and Gateshead look bankers at home to Rochdale and Oxford City respectively. At Step 3 Coalville should get the better of Berkhamstead, Chesham host Poole and should be able to give them another defeat and Dulwich continue in strong form and host a struggling Cheshunt.

Prices from 6pm Friday night

AFC Fylde 1pt @ 15/8 with Bet365 (take up to 6/4)

Aldershot 1pt @ 3/1 with Bet365, Betfair, Paddy Power, Betfred and Coral (take up to 9/4)

Scarborough 2pts @ 11/10 with everyone (take up to 10/11)

Hampton 1pt @ 8/5 with Skybet and Betfred (take up to 11/8)

Potters Bar 1pt @ 100/30 with Betfair and Paddy Power (take up to 9/4)

Chesterfield/Gateshead/Coalville/Chesham/Dulwich 1pt acca @ 3.9/1 with Bet365

February 24

On 2/14/2024 at 1:53 PM, dawwe92 said:

Hi, is there any website you can see current or upcoming suspensions for players?

I think there is a page on the FA website.

yossa6133 · February 12

I will start the update with a bit of an apology as I haven't been keeping this as up to date as I usually do and a lot has happened in the last month or so since I last updated things.

Lets start with the current market leader for the race Ferns Lock who had a very easy success at Thurles a few days after the previous update. It was an OK field (Romeo Magico was 2nd) and he did it in the style of a classy horse. My first thought though was that he should skip Cheltenham and go to Aintree. He is a keen, free going sort and he is highly unlikely to be gifted an easy lead at Cheltenham. I mentioned after Down Royal that he might struggle to stay 3m2f at this stage of his career and this performance backed up that thought. What was really interesting was after the race on Racing TV Ruby Walsh also said he should go to Aintree and not Cheltenham. Then a couple of weeks ago his trainer also said that Aintree would be more his cup of tea, but they may as well give Cheltenham a go. As I have mentioned before his owner has backed him for Cheltenham and I just wonder if he hadn't if he would even be going for the race. I think he is the best horse in the race and he could run in better races than hunter chases, but I'm going to be bold and say at least one other will outstay him. I'd even be tempted to place lay him on the day for a low risk lay as I sort of think he might either win or really paddle after the last and more than a couple go past him.

Christie also said that Ferns Lock is a better horse than Winged Leader and Vaucelet. I get the feeling neither of those two will be heading to Cheltenham, but he did have plans to send Ramillies to The Festival if he ran well at Naas next time. As it turned out though he just looked a non stayer again so it would seem a bit pointless to run him. He made most of the running alongside Billaway to start with and then Its On The Line from about half-way. Jumping the last the pair of them were still upsides, but Its On The Line started to pull away. Then the drama happened as Billaway came from miles back to look as if he was going to go straight pass Its On The Line only for him to pick up again and stay in front. The 7yo was racing pretty lazily for a fair way of the race and whilst the ground was clearly testing I don't think the horse was tired at all. The fact he picked up again once Billaway got to him proved to me he was just idling on the run-in and wanted some company. He will have plenty of company at Cheltenham and we know he stays all day. I put on Twitter before the race that I had backed him for Cheltenham and I still think he is the most likely winner right now. Billaway ran probably his best ever race 1^st up as usually he struggles on his first run of the season. I have seen a suggestion that maybe Willie had him straighter this year because he was making his first run later than usual. He fell in this last year and unseated at Punchestown, but his form around that suggests he is still more than capable of playing a part in the finish. It was no surprise to see Hitak pushed out to as big as 33/1 as he never got involved at all. He must be a doubtful runner now.

What I hadn't spotted was that Its On The Line has been entered in the Grand National and that led Robbie Wilders of the Racing Post to tip him up in one of their shows on Saturday. He thought that he was going to win easy at Naas, then win at Cheltenham before going to Aintree for the National. The only problem being that is impossible because as soon as you run in a British hunter chase you can't run in a non hunter chase until after the hunter chase season ends. I suspect Mullins doesn't know this either because it would appear to be a waste of money otherwise. It would not surprise me though if he did run in a National at some point. Also entered in the Grand National is Samcro and he ran at the start of the month and was only 3^rd to Lifetime Ambition, a horse who is being aimed at the Aintree Foxhunters. So not a bad run, but it just highlighted to me what his win in November did and that is he is on the downgrade. He's as short as 13/2 (Bet365) and he could be triple that price and I still wouldn't want to back him.

Famous Clermont won a match at 1/10 at Larkhill last month. He looks set to bid to retain his Walrus crown at Haydock at the weekend, but as I've said all along he looks set to skip Cheltenham to focus on Aintree. Time Leader also looks set to go to Haydock and he was a good winner at Hereford last month. Again though I'd be surprised if he went to Cheltenham before Aintree.

Premier Magic also won at 1/10 on Saturday at Brocklesby. It was a very slow time so they clearly went no pace and essentially both wins this season have only told us that he is fit and healthy. I certainly think you couldn't rule him out becoming another dual winner of the race, but it is impossible to know if he is still good enough based on the two runs this year.

Rocky's Howya has still not been sighted and that has to be a concern about him running in the race. I always say that it's very hard to back something ante-post for this race before you know it is well because you rarely get to see quotes about the runners.

Secret Investor is entered at Fakenham on Friday, but again the trainer has so far said he will skip Cheltenham.

Tea Clipper has run twice since the last update and whilst I could give him a pass on the Warwick 2^nd the 3^rd at Ludlow was a shocker. I think he's better than that, but now he's unlikely to qualify for Cheltenham and sights will need to be lowered.

Two British trained pointers have won hunter chases and could go to Cheltenham are Sine Nomine and Quintin's Man. The former ran out an easy winner at Wetherby and whilst you can pick all sorts of holes in her form the fact is we just don't know how good she actually is yet. The well backed favourite Fairly Famous hated the ground and pulled up and the 2^nd Bennys King isn't a true stayer at the trip. Like I say though she is clearly a good and the softer the ground next month the better her chance will be.

Quintin's Man beat Lalor at Wincanton in good style which was a return to form after a couple of poor efforts pointing this season. He stays and handles the track so could easily run a solid race if they went down this route. He's also in at Haydock on Saturday.

One of the big point races of the season is the Coronation Gold Cup at Larkhill and it saw a tremendous finish which saw Grace A Vous Enki and Regatta De Blanc dead heat. I mentioned the former in my last update as he had been impressing in points and this was another top effort. I'd imagine the plan with the latter would still be Cheltenham in May rather than Cheltenham in March.

Finally Fier Jaguen made his seasonal return at Garthorpe and won with ease. What is worrying about him though is he jumped out to his right still despite it being a right handed track. I'd imagine Aintree would be more likely than Cheltenham.

To sum it all up I still think Its On The Line is the most likely winner at this stage. I doubt his price is likely to change that much now between now and the race, but if you are looking for ante-post multi's I would be sticking him in.

NB - Winged Leader was only 3rd in a point on Saturday and that suggest he continues to be on the downgrade and wont be heading to Cheltenham. Also still no entries for Rocky's Howya.

February 12

On 2/11/2024 at 12:54 PM, Labrador said:

Flowers and Gary Whild were together at Kidderminster a few years ago. The football was utterly turgid in complete contrast to the exciting approach of Steve Burr whom they succeeded.

[7 changes for Kidderminster at Peterborough Sports - their squad players have had so little football, are probably not match-fit and probably are not good enough. Phil Brown far more concerned about Solihull Moors next Tuesday].

Yeah I couldn't believe the team he put out. Just seems like such a missed opportunity to get to Wembley.

bromsgrovegreen · February 11

On 2/10/2024 at 11:24 AM, bromsgrovegreen said:

Thanks for the tips once again. Surprised how Phil Brown has turned Kiddy round, didn't see that happening tbh.

What's your thoughts on Tim Flowers as a manager Darran? Bromsgrove fans getting excited but he's been rubbish his last three or four jobs

One of the worst managers we've ever had and I'm amazed he's got another job. Be prepared for long ball and hard to watch football.

Zico10 · February 10

Boreham Wood v Maidenhead

Wood have got Tshimanga back, but hard to know how good he still is. They did win at Woking last week, but they only had 3 shots in the game and were probably fortunate to hold on with just 10 men. We know Maidenhead can throw in a stinker and their last 3 losses were to Ebbsfleet, Wealdstone and Dorking. They did beat Wealdstone on Tuesday night though and I think they look in better shape than Wood at the moment.

Chelmsford v Weymouth

I'm going to go for a hat-trick on Weymouth after we have been on them the last twice. Clearly last weeks win was a rather dramatic 4-3 victory, but I think it shows how high confidence is with them at the moment that they could come back from losing positions to win the game. Chelmsford can certainly blow hot and cold as they showed when losing to Havant last week. For me Weymouth are too big a price.

St Albans v Taunton

No idea why the price on St Albans has drifted as they look good things to continue their superb form. Great 4-0 win over Torquay last week for us and they should have beaten Hampton on Tuesday night as well. They have only lost once in their last 11 games. Taunton have only won once in 18 games and that came 11 games ago. They have drawn 4 of their last 5, but only 1 of those was an away game which was the draw at Welling. St Albans are way better than Taunton and it really should be a home win.

Hungerford v Walton & Hersham (Southern Premier South)

The only team to beat Hungerford at home this season are probably champions Chesham. Walton did win away last week at Sholing, but they struggle away on the whole and I think Hungerford are better than them anyway.

Bishops Stortford v Coalville

Into the FA Trophy now and I like Coalville here to cause an upset. God knows what has gone on with them last season as they should be near the top. I'm surprised it took them so long to sack their manager which they finally did this week. I know the home side hammered Aldershot in the previous round, but that was a freak result and they looked a poor side when I went to watch them play Gloucester a couple of weeks ago. Coalville are more than capable of winning this.

Peterborough Sports v Kidderminster

I was surprised that both these sides opened up at 6/4 and I'm not surprised the away side are being backed. They look a totally different side under Phil Brown and I'm sure he is eyeing up a Wembley trip which looks a realistic aim given the sides still in the competition. Sports have done well enough at home recently, but I think they will struggle to contain the new and improved Kidderminster.

Welling v Barnet

Welling got lucky in the last round as Chesterfield played the youth team and even then they struggled a bit to win the game. Barnet have been putting out some strong teams in the competition so far and they went and won at Radcliffe in the last round which would have been a tougher game.

Prices from Friday 10.30am

Maidenhead 1pt @ 5/2 with Skybet, Paddy Power, Betfair and Ladbrokes (Coral are 27/10 and take up to 2/1)

Weymouth 1pt @ 17/5 with Paddy Power and Betfair (take up to 13/5)

St Albans 5pts @ 17/20 with Bet365 (take up to 4/6)

Hungerford 2pts @ 11/10 with Bet365 (take up to 10/11)

Coalville 1pt @ 21/10 with Skybet and Bet365 (take up to 7/4)

Kidderminster 3pts @ 13/10 with Paddy Power, Betfair, Betfred and Bet365 (29/20 with Skybet and take up to Evs)

Barnet 3pts @ 6/5 with Bet365 (take up to 10/11)

andypandy23 · February 3

Eastleigh v Chesterfield

Pretty obvious at the moment that Eastleigh are really struggling at the back. In 4 of their last 5 games they have conceded 4 goals and in the other game, a 1-0 loss to Southend, it should have been more than 1 given how high Southend's xG was in that match. They host a Chesterfield side who we know are full of goals and I find it hard to see how Eastleigh are going to be strong enough at the back to keep them out. I think it is worth taking a chance on the -2 handicap and hopefully the away side can win by at least 2.

Scarborough v South Shields

Scarborough have only lost once at home all season, but maybe South Shields could make it 2. A change of many for the away side has seen improvement from them with just one loss in 5 now. They were very good at Hereford on Tuesday night when beating them 3-0 and if they can repeat that performance the I think they are capable of beating the home side here.

Spennymoor v Peterborough Sports

The home side have forgotten how to win and continue to struggle. They have got just 2 points in their last 10 games and the away side are value here to heap more misery on them. Sports beat Bishops Stortford in the Christmas/New Year double header and in their 3 league games since they have done well to draw with Scarborough and Alfreton before a 1-0 loss against Scunthorpe last week. This is clearly a step down from those games and Sports have got a good chance of getting back to winning ways.

Maidstone v Yeovil

What an effort it was from Maidstone last week to beat Ipswich in the FA Cup. Clearly they rode their luck, but they worked very hard and were clinical when the couple of chances came their way. I am taking them on here though as I think it will be hard for them to replicate that effort against the side who are miles clear at the top of the table. There have been signs as well that the FA Cup run is hindering their league form.

Torquay v St Albans

St Albans have only lost 1 game in their last 9 and despite them losing their manager to Wealdstone last week they were still able to get a 1-1 draw against Yeovil and played well. They have won 6 of those 9 games as well and as I have highlighted a few times in recent weeks I don't think Torquay are carrying a huge amount of threat at the moment. In their last 6 league games the only time they have won is against Dover and they have been struggling. St Albans look value to continue their fine form.

Welling v Taunton

We should have collected when we took Taunton on last week, but hopefully we can collect opposing them this week. I took on Welling in midweek as I wondered how the players would react to the sudden change in management, but I have to say they surprised me with how they performed against Hampton and I thought they deserved the win. They take that effort into this game and they should really be beating a weakened Taunton side who have always travelled poorly.

Weymouth v Hemel Hempstead

Hemel did win two on the bounce away from home and it wasn't a shock they lost a Yeovil in their last away game, but on the whole the have been poor away and Weymouth have not only been hard to beat, especially at home, but they have also started to turn the draws into victories having won their last 3. Hemel were poor against Welling last Satuday and I think Weymouth can continue their winning form.

Prices from Friday 6pm

Chesterfield -2 1pt @ 12/5 with Bet365 (take up to 2/1)

South Shields 1pt @ 12/5 with Skybet and William Hill (BetVictor are 13/5 and take up to 2/1)

Peterborough Sports 2pts @ 21/10 with Skybet and William Hill (BetVictor are 11/5 and take up to 7/4)

Yeovil 1pt @ 6/4 with Skybet, BetVictor, Betfred (take up to 5/4)

St Albans 1pt @ 5/2 with Paddy Power, Betfair and Skybet (take up to 2/1)

Welling 2pts @ 21/20 with Betfred and Bet365 (take up to 5/6)

Weymouth 2pts @ 6/5 with Paddy Power and Betfair (take up to Evs)

G1dders · January 27

Gateshead v Barnet

So frustrating we didn't get the chance of getting a big price winner against Gateshead on Tuesday and whilst Barnet aren't as big a price hopefully they can beat them. A bit of a break will help Gateshead, but they clearly aren't going to be as good as they were before losing all their players. Barnet clearly just need to make sure they finish in the top 3 now as Chesterfield are well gone and they did lose to Oldham on Tuesday, but both goals were penalties and there wasn't much in it otherwise. Given what happened in the reverse fixture I do get the feeling Oldham are Barnet's bogey team this season. This does look a good chance for Barnet to bounce straight back though.

Banbury v Scarborough

This would have been a max bet if Banbury hadn't sacked their manager on Thursday. I watched their game against Gloucester on Tuesday and they were awful. For a team to make us look half decent at the moment says it all and after managing to get an equaliser in the 66^th minute they didn't actually manage to have another shot after that. Gloucester had some good chances as well to make it more than 2 and deserved the victory. Scarborough are now into 3^rd and have been in good form and given Banbury can't win, especially at home, it should be an away win.

Buxton v Brackley

Buxton were hopeless on Tuesday night losing 6-0 to Warrington and whilst they beat Chester last Saturday it was a game of few chances and they just happened to score one of those. Brackley have won 5 on the bounce and are looking pretty good at the moment so they should be shorter to beat Buxton.

Rushall v Curzon

The home side losing their star striker to Southend is not going to help their cause to stay up and they host a Curzon side who are looking very good again after having a little blip a few weeks ago. To go to Kings Lynn and win 4-0 on Tuesday night was impressive.

Dartford v Weymouth

Weymouth have only lost twice in their last 10 games and whilst they have drawn half of the other 8 I think they are value to beat a Dartford side who are not having a great season and don't have a manager at the moment.

Taunton v Aveley

Time to back Aveley again as they have improved after their poor performances a few weeks ago. Weymouth beat Taunton on Tuesday and Taunton are suffering off the field at the moment with a winding up order against them. Their squad looks weak at the moment with plenty of players leaving. I didn't oppose them on Tuesday as I wondered if they might still be strong at home as they did make Yeovil work hard the other week, but Tuesday night gives me the feeling they will struggle at home now and Aveley are looking good right now.

Horsham v Potters Bar (Isthmian Premier)

Potters Bar have treated us well and whilst I know they lost 3-0 to Lewes last time they did end up with just 9 men on the pitch. Horsham haven't won in 5 and whilst they have two good draws against Hornchurch and Enfield in their last 2 games, this is another tough one and we know Potters Bar are better than their league position.

Matlock v FCUM (Northern Premier)

Like Rushall the home side have lost their star striker with Margotts going to Kings Lynn. He scored a goal a game and scored 2 of the 3 they put past Atherton last time. They are going to suffer badly with him gone and whilst FCUM aren't having their greatest season they are in good form having lost just 3 of their last 10. I thought they looked over priced.

Prices from 9pm Thursday

Barnet 2pts @ 6/4 with Paddy Power and Betfair (Coral are 8/5 and take up to Evs)

Scarborough 4pts @ 4/5 with Skybet, Paddy Power, Betfair, Betfred and Bet365 (take up to 4/7)

Brackley 3pts @ 8/5 with Skybet, Paddy Power, Betfair and Betfred (take up to 11/10)

Curzon 1pt @ 7/5 with Skybet (take up to 6/5)

Weymouth 1pt @ 14/5 with Paddy Power, Betfair and William Hill (Skybet are 3/1 and take up to 11/5)

Aveley 1pt @ 7/5 with Paddy Power, William Hill, Betfair and Betfred (Skybet are 6/4 and take up to 6/5)

Potters Bar 1pt @ 2/1 with Bet365 (take up to 7/4)

FCUM 1pt @ 21/10 with Skybet and Betfred (take up to 7/4)

yossa6133 · January 22

On 1/17/2024 at 3:54 PM, yossa6133 said:

@DarranNot sure they'd run him at Cheltenham again 😆 but what is Fier Jaguen up to these days? Doesn't seem to have run since hunter chase night...certainly wouldn't mind seeing him try Aintree again.

Is entered in a point this weekend.

Zico10 · January 20

Ebbsfleet v Hartlepool

Happy to oppose Hartlepool again especially away from home. I'm hoping that the Ebbsfleet we saw beat Wealdstone in their last game will be out again here as well.

Kidderminster v Aldershot

Still can't believe Altrincham missed that penalty last week, but I am happy to oppose the home side again. Obviously Aldershot were even worse, but I think the fact they played WBA the week before clearly had a part to play. I admit they haven't always been great away from home, but they are over priced for me to win this as I can't have Phil Brown at all.

Haringey v Folkestone (Isthmian Premier)

Surprised by the drift on the away side who are much improved in recent weeks and were very good in beating Enfield last week. They look better than their hosts at the moment.

prices from 9pm Friday

Ebbsfleet 1pt @ 6/4 with Bet365 (take up to 6/5)

Aldershot 1pt @ 21/10 with Bet365, Skybet, William Hill and BetVictor (take up to 7/4)

Folkestone 2pts @ 21/20 with Bet365, Skybet and Betfred (take up to 10/11)

January 17

Rather helpfully the Racing Post had an interview with the person who runs the syndicate who own Regatta De Blanc and he is thinking the same as me that hopefully she will turn out to be a horse who can win this in future years, but this year the target is Hunter Chase night instead. She is set to take in the Coronation Cup at Larkhill on the way as well. Obviously connections can change their mind, but think it is fair to say the chances of her running are pretty low.

StevieDay1983 · January 17

Time to catch up with everything that has happened in the last month or so and plenty has happened regarding Cheltenham.

The obvious place to start is the hunter chase at Down Royal on Boxing Day where Its On The Line just wore down Ferns Lock on the run-in and not surprisingly has disposed him at the head of the market for The Festival. After 3 out the winner got outpaced and looked like he was going to finish 3^rd at best as Ferns Lock and Ramillies went on, but the latter got very tired and the former just wasn't able to repel the winners challenge late on. Given Ferns Lock is quite a free going sort I struggle to see how he is going to stay 3m2f at Cheltenham at this stage of his career. We know from Its On The Line's run in the race last year that he stays the trip very well and I just don't see how Ferns Lock could reverse the form in March. If he were mine I'd be tempted to skip Cheltenham and go to Aintree which looks tailormade for him. I know his owner has backed him for Cheltenham though so I suspect he will go there if he is fit and well. Given the way Ramillies faded into 4^th he doesn't appeal as a possible contender at this stage, although he did win again back pointing on Sunday. Vaucelet, who was a further 18L back in 5th, looks, as his pointing form suggested, to have totally lost his form.

The other hunter chase in Ireland over Christmas was the maiden one at Limerick and Its On The Line's stablemate, Romeo Magico landed that. The form has been boosted since as the 2^nd has won since. His trainer likes him and thinks he got away with the ground and will be a nice horse in the spring. He hasn't qualified for this yet and surely Its On The Line will be the stables leading contender if he does decide to run Romeo Magico as well.

Famous Clermont is currently 3^rd in the betting and I only mention him here because of that as connections have only talked about him going to Aintree and I still view him as a very unlikely runner. He made his return at Larkhill on New Years Eve and having cruised into contention he then made a mistake at 2 out and tired very quickly. Will allowed him to cost home after that and he was a 33L 3^rd in the end. His trainer has said since that whilst he thought he had left a bit to work on he clearly had left more than he thought. I'm sure he will improve as the season goes on. The winner of that race was a horse called Grace A Vous Enki who used to be trained by Paul Nicholls and is only rated 113 over fences at the moment. Nicky Sheppard though has clearly got him in much better form than that though and this was his 2^nd easy win of the season after he won at Larkhill earlier in December as well. I think his performances can be upgraded because he has jumped left on both wins which suggests he wants to be going left handed. He's not in the betting for Cheltenham at the moment, but he should be.

Onto last year's winner Premier Magic and after Chaddesley Corbett was called off over Christmas he headed to Sheriff Hutton on Sunday instead. He went off at 2/7 and won just as easily as the odds suggested. It was a solid test though as the race took 7m23s to run and it should bring him on nicely. He is set for one more prep race prior to his attempt at keeping hold of his crown.

The first hunter chase of the season in the UK was at Taunton last Monday and it saw Regatta De Blanc win on rules debut after 3 pointing wins all at Larkhill. I thought she showed plenty of inexperience in the jumping stakes and also through greenness, but she beat a very good field. Some people might want to crab the form based on the 2nd, but I think he showed improved form and I think the form will stand up as the season goes on. However I wouldn't go near the Cheltenham Festival with her this season as whilst next year she might well be capable of being up to running in it, I don't think she has the experience at the moment. She also isn't qualified yet and Will didn't really seem to mention that Cheltenham was the target. If she was mine I would be aiming her at the mares race on hunter chase night at Cheltenham to give her cause experience and the 14/1 makes no appeal at all at this stage.

Another horse who has just had 4 starts is the Irish 7yo Hitak. He was stuffed on debut on April 2022, but he looks a different horse on his 3 runs last month and on Sunday. He bolted up in his maiden at Tattersalls Farm and then at the end of the month he went straight into open company and he won. It wasn't like he beat rubbish though because Winged Leader was the horse who finished 2nd. On Sunday he was an easy winner of another open to qualify for Cheltenham. I'd like to see him under rules first (entered at Thurles on Sunday) and again although he is clearly very useful it is some ask for a horse with such little experience to win a race like this.

Fakir D'alene is in the betting at 10/1, but he ran in the Paddy Power Chase over Christmas where he brought down at the 5th. As much as he was 2^nd in a point back in October his 2 runs in big handicaps since suggest he is going for big handicaps rather than this.

Sine Nomine has been talked of as being a possible Cheltenham contender, but she was beaten by Wagner on seasonal return at Alnwick. It was testing ground and he had match fitness on his side, but I've never really felt she was Cheltenham class and this performance backs that up.

Tea Clipper is priced up at 16/1 and he was declared at Ludlow on Thursday and is entered at Warwick on Monday. That would suggest they want to get him qualified for this. Simply The Betts was going to be David Maxwell's runner, but sadly he passed away.

On Sunday at Thurles as I mentioned Hitak is entered along side Billaway, Ferns Lock, Hardline and Romeo Magic. Could well be a race which tells us more.

I'm certainly not suggesting a bet at this stage, but if you asked me now which horse I think will win this year's race I would have to say Its On The Line.

velos1 · January 13

Gateshead v Weston Super Mare

I'm not surprised there has been some money for Weston because Gateshead looked a mess on Wednesday night, which is no surprise given the overhaul of players. However, whilst I am going to back Weston here, it is worth adding that they were playing by far the best side in Non-League this season. Chesterfield were really impressive and put them to the sword. Weston are clearly no Chesterfield and with a few days training they might be able to improve enough to win this, but I will take a chance that Weston can beat them.

Kidderminster v Altrincham

One person I didn't expect to see back in management at this level was Phil Brown given how badly he did at Southend, but he has appeared at Kidderminster and I can only see them going down from here. To be fair I suspect they would have gone down anyway and they were awful at Rochdale last week. I wasn't the only one who backed them though because they were really well backed and even at half time when it was 0-0 they were still a shorter price than the one I put them up at. Altrincham had a tough Christmas as they got very lucky to get a point at Bromley before only picking up a point in the 2 games against Halifax. What was much better though was the win over Barnet last Saturday and they are way too big a price here to beat Kidderminster.

Hartlepool v Hampton & Richmond

I don't often regret bets, but having watched how poor Darlington and Hartlepool were on Tuesday night I did regret those two. I thought they might both have turned a corner, but both were awful. Maybe back at home Hartlepool might be able to outplay Hampton in the same way they did Oxford last week, but this might even be a harder tie for them. Hampton did finally lose last week, but I guess it had to come eventually and for me they have a real chance of causing an upset here.

Bishops Stortford v Aldershot and Welling v Chesterfield

I was surprised to see Aldershot at around 5/6 when I first looked at the fixtures because they really should be too strong for the side currently bottom of the National League North. I am going to add Chesterfield to them to make a double. Now I fully expect plenty of changes from the side who faced Gateshead on Wednesday and it is likely to be a similar team to the one who hammered Southport in the previous round. Apart from being away from home this game is no tougher for me and that Southport match highlighted the depth Chesterfield have right now.

St Ives v Nuneaton

Very keen on the home side here. They have won 6 of their last 7 and in those 6 wins they have scored a huge 26 goals, having not scored less than 3. They were very impressive in the 2^nd half last week to beat an in form Leiston side 5-0. Nuneaton have lost their manager, have no home and have lost players. They have won just one of their last 7 games and if St Ives can repeat their recent home performances then they really ought to be winning this.

Prices from around 10.30 Friday morning

Weston Super Mare 1pt @ 17/5 with William Hill (bigger with Betfair and Paddy Power take up to 3/1)

Altrincham 2pts @ 9/5 with Paddy Power, Betfair and Betfred (Skybet are 15/8 and take up to 11/8)

Hampton & Richmond 1pt @ 18/5 with Betfair, Ladbrokes and Coral (take up to 3/1)

Aldershot/Chesterfield 1pt double @ 2.19/1 with Betfred (bit bigger with Betfred and take up to 7/4)

St Ives 4pts @ 6/5 with Skybet and Betfred (take up to 8/11)

January 6

9 hours ago, Labrador said:

I hope Darran is right about Kidderminster. The unluckiest player not to score in their match v Boreham Wood was Jack Lambert. He had the only shots on target playing with the wind in the first half apart from the injury time header from Omotayo. In the second half he hit the inside of the post, had several other decent shots and then near the end blazed a foot over the bar when he could (and should) have side-footed into an empty net.

For me Lambert is worth a bet at 9/2 (VC Bet, b365) to score.

Was a big gamble on Kiddie but didn't get anywhere near to landing really. Don't see how they can possibly stay up.

ThunderDan9 · January 6

Rochdale v Kidderminster

Risky one this, but Rochdale are down to the bare bones at the moment and if Kidderminster are to win another away game this could be the one. Rochdale never got involved at all against Fylde and were deservedly beaten. Kidderminster had a staggering 27 shots against Boreham Wood for an xG of 2.81 with Wood only having 5 shots with an xG of 0.79, most of which came from their 2^nd goal. It was a little bit the story of Kiddies season though where they have out shot their opponents, but still failed to win. Like I say though this does look a very good time to be facing Rochdale so I make them a bet.

Braintree v Hampton & Richmond

3 losses on the bounce for the home side including losing 3-0 twice to Chelmsford and whilst Hampton's price has come in I still think there is value in them to continue their long unbeaten run. We finally got paid out on backing them on New Years Day and whilst Slough did create loads of shots and probably should have been in front at half time, in the 2^nd half most of their chances were minor ones. Hampton got over the line though and they just keep finding a way of not losing. I'd make them even shorter than the price they've been backed into.

Gloucester v Southport/Slough v Taunton

Happy to carry on opposing Southport and I think Gloucester are playing better than they are at the moment. Gloucester have been strong at home of late and were better than Hereford until the final 20 minutes (including the 10 minutes of injury time), when to be fair Hereford were all over them. The return fixture was fairly level and a draw the right result. Southport were well beaten by Curzon and if Gloucester can perform at home as they have in recent weeks then I think they will win this. Slough played well in both games against Hampton and Taunton have lost 7 players this week plus the players aren't happy with how the club are being run at the moment. Not ideal circumstances to be facing one of the in form sides at the moment. Both sides are being backed and I will put them in a double.

Beaconsfield v Swindon Supermarine (Southern Premier South)

One win in ten for the home side and although Swindon were well beaten by Merthyr on Boxing Day that was just a blip as they went straight back to winning form against Didcot. They are the form side coming into this.

Harrow v Hanwell (Southern Premier South)

Harrow have only picked up 4 points in their last 10 games and have only won 4 times all season. Hanwell had been on a poor run of form, but they have won their last 2 and drew with Totton prior to that so are coming into this game in better nick than their hosts.

Mickleover v AFC Telford (Southern Premier Central)

The home side's long wining run at the start of the season seems a long time ago and they have won just twice in their last 10 games. They won their last game, but that was against Long Eaton who only have 8 points. This will be a much tougher test as Telford are unbeaten in 13 games and I'm surprised they are such a big price to win this game. As well as backing them for today's game I am also backing them to win the league. They are 4 points behind their hosts having played the same amount of games. Redditch have the same points as Mickleover having played a game more and Needham Market are also on the 44 point mark having played a game less. Leamington are on 42 points, but have played 3 more games than Mickleover and Telford. Stamford also have 40 points so it is quite tight, but Telford are the biggest side amongst those teams and that might just give them edge. They took a little time to adjust after relegation, but have clearly got better as the season has gone on and I think they have a very good chance of winning the title. Bet365 are 8/1 with each-way terms the first 3 1/5 odds, but I have taken the 10/1 with William Hill the first 2 at 1/3 odds. I think either offer is acceptable so up to you which you take, but I will settle to Hills terms as that's the one I have had the bet with.

Prices from 9am this morning

Kidderminster 1pt @ 13/5 with Paddy Power and Betfair(take up to 11/5)

Hampton & Richmond 1pt @ 5/2 with Skybet and BetVictor (27/10 with Coral and take up to 2/1)

Gloucester/Slough 1pt double @ 2.15/1 with Bet365 (take up to 7/4)

Swindon Supermarine 1pt @ 9/5 with Skybet and Betfred (take up to 6/4)

Hanwell 1pt @ 7/5 with Skybet, Bet365, Coral and Ladbrokes (Betfred are 6/4 and take up to 5/4)

AFC Telford 1pt @ 23/10 with Skybet and Bet365 (take up to 9/5)

Ante-Post

AFC Telford 1pt e/w @ 10/1 with William Hill (e/w 1/3 first 2)

andypandy23 · December 26, 2023

Dagenham & Redbridge v Eastleigh

Granted Eastleigh have not always been great away from home this season, but Dagenham continue to put some very limp performances in at home and as I highlighted in Saturday's preview even lost to Wealdstone in their last home game. I'm sure Paul McCallum will be keen to get on the scoresheet given he used to be at Dagenham and he continues to be in fine form. I'd be even more confident if Eastleigh had been better on their travels, but the price makes little sense to me and looks the best bet of Boxing Day.

Ebbsfleet v Bromley

Bromley should have won with ease last night, but a mix of good defending and not being clinical enough cost them. Play like that again and they should eat an Ebbsfleet side who are struggling for wins. I don't think there is a huge amount in the price, but enough for me to play.

Dover v Aveley

Granted Dover have won just once all season and they have picked up 11 draws, but I am happy to continue opposing Aveley and Dover are surely going to edge a game at some point given how close they are from gaining the 3 points.

Havant & Waterlooville v Farnborough

Farnborough have only won once away all season and they were very lucky to get 3 points on Saturday against Braintree. Their goal was a penalty and they created little else whereas Braintree's xG was 2.05. Havant were unfortunate not to pick something up at Truro as it was a 30 yard wonder strike which proved to be the only goal of the game. Back at home I think they can get back to winning ways.

Torquay v Truro

Torquay had a few players missing on Saturday and were poor losing at Chelmsford. Their home form has been strong to be fair and they might well bounce back, but with Truro in picking up wins I will take a chance that they can pull off a victory.

Eastleigh 2pts @ 11/5 with Bet365 and Betfred (take up to 6/4)

Bromley 1pt @ 23/20 with Bet365, Paddy Power, Betfair and Betfred (take up to Evs)

Dover 1pt @ 15/8 with Paddy Power, Betfair and Betfred (Skybet are 2/1 and take up to 6/4)

Havant 2pts @ 6/4 with Paddy Power, Betfair and Betfred (Skybet are 13/8 and take up to 11/10)

Truro 1pt @ 13/5 with Skybet, Paddy Power and Betfair (take up to 11/5)

Prices from 3pm Christmas Eve

Eastleigh 2pts @ 11/5 with Bet365 and Betfred (take up to 6/4)

Bromley 1pt @ 23/20 with Bet365, Paddy Power, Betfair and Betfred (take up to Evs)

Dover 1pt @ 15/8 with Paddy Power, Betfair and Betfred (Skybet are 2/1 and take up to 6/4)

Havant 2pts @ 6/4 with Paddy Power, Betfair and Betfred (Skybet are 13/8 and take up to 11/10)

Truro 1pt @ 13/5 with Skybet, Paddy Power and Betfair (take up to 11/5)

December 23, 2023

Prices from 6pm Friday

Torque · December 23, 2023

Bromley v Altrincham

This game is live on TV and I'm going to take a chance on the away side. Granted Bromley have only lost one in their last 10, but that was when they blew a 2 goal lead against Aldershot. They were poor against Southend last week and were lucky to win which given Southend's issues was a bit of a surprise. I think there is a case to be made that Altrincham are the 2^nd best side in the league at the moment and obviously they are making a mockery of their 125/1 ante-post quotes. I'd still have Bromley as favourites given they are at home, but I do think Alty have a better chance than the odds suggest.

Chesterfield v Aldershot

This bet is probably going to be a loser, but Aldershot are too big here so I have to take a flyer at the prices. Chesterfield have won every game at home in the league bar one which they drew and will win the title with ease, but Aldershot at their best are dangerous, as they have proven plenty of times this season. They will need to defend a lot better than they did against Eastleigh last Saturday as it was a horror show on that front, but they did end up scoring 3 goals and as their manager said afterwards they won the 2^nd half, but 5 was just too many goals to make up. I just wonder if they struggled a little after beating Stockport a few days previous and whilst away from home they haven't been as good as they have at home they are capable of putting in a performance and making things hard for Chesterfield.

Wealdstone v Hartlepool

Proof last week how bad Dagenham are at home because Wealdstone managed to get their first away win of the season having only picked up 2 points on their travels prior to that. At home they have won 7, drawn 3 and ironically it was Dagenham that were the only team to beat them. Hartlepool didn't do too badly in the 1-0 loss to Chesterfield last Saturday, but they haven't really been that good for a while now and I'm keen on the home side getting another 3 points here.

Woking v Maidenhead

I'm always wary of opposing a team with a new manager, but I am going to take on Woking again here. I'm amazed that Maidenhead are nearer the play-offs than the relegation zone because they looked awful earlier in the season. They put in the worst performance I have watched so far this season against Southend and I really did think this was the year they might drop, but Devonshire has pulled it out of the bag yet again. They are unbeaten in 7 league games now and whilst Woking will take a bit of confidence from the Dorking win, they might just need a bit more work.

Aveley v Slough

I don't think there is a huge amount in the price here on Slough, but I am going to continue my opposition of Aveley who just aren't as good as they were earlier in the season. Slough have only lost twice in their last 10 and I think they are playing better than their hosts right now.

Truro v Havant & Waterlooville

Havant do need to prove they can do it away from home, but they have won all 3 games since King was sacked scoring 9 goals in the process and have kept clean sheets the last twice against Hemel and Taunton. They look a different side and given the quality through the squad they really shouldn't be in the relegation zone. Truro to be fair to them are in decent nick themselves having won 3 of their last 4 league games and the defeat was to Maidstone. On paper though Havant are the better side and now they have the winning feeling back they are a fair bet here.

Altrincham 1pt @ 2/1 with Skybet, Paddy Power, Betfair, BetVictor and Betfred (take up to 7/4)

Aldershot 1pt @ 17/2 with Bet365 and Ladbrokes (Coral are 9/1 and take up to 6/1)

Wealdstone 1pt @ 13/10 with Bet365, Skybet and Betfred (take up to 11/10)

Maidenhead 1pt @ 5/2 with Skybet and BetVictor (take up to 2/1)

Slough 1pt @ 9/5 with Paddy Power, Betfair Bet365 and Betfred (take up to 6/4)

Havant 1pt @ 5/2 with Skybet, Paddy Power and Betfair

velos1 · December 16, 2023

Dorking v Woking

I wish Woking were playing someone better than Dorking as I think it would be a lump on job, but hopefully taking them on will still pay off tomorrow. Woking still don't have a manager and have lost their last 7 games in all competitions. Away from home their have lost their last 4 and in three of those they took the lead. They were a goal up against Ramsgate and lost 2-1, they lost 3-2 to Oxford City, they were 2 up at Boreham Wood and lost 4-2 and then on Tuesday night they were 2 up against Weston-Super-Mare and lost 3-2. I've got no idea why they haven't got a manager yet as it's been about a month now and clearly confidence is rock bottom right now. Dorking have had some poor performances on the road of late. They lost 6-0 to Gateshead and were very lucky to get a 3-3 draw on the TV at Fylde. At home though it has been better and they have won 3 of their last 4 including beating Maidenhead 3-0 in the FA Trophy last week. On paper Woking do have the better team, but they aren't playing like it and I'm not sure going to Dorking's dodgy 3G pitch is going to be what they need right now.

Solihull v Oldham

Nearly got paid out by opposing Oldham last week and I will take them on again here although again I sort of wish it wasn't Solihull they were playing. To be fair they beat Scunthorpe in the Trophy last week which is a good effort given their side, but they have lost their last 3 league games. Oldham are still far from convincing as highlighted by that Ebbsfleet loss in their last league game and hopefully Solihull can pick up the 3 points.

Banbury v Farsley Celtic

The only game Celtic have lost in their last 7 games was to Radcliffe in the FA Trophy and they incredibly scored two goals in injury time to overturn a 1-0 deficit against Curzon on Tuesday. That was just their 2^nd win at home (they have drawn 6), but away from home they have won half of their away matches. Banbury are also doing very well away from home as they showed at Kings Lynn on Tuesday, but at home they have won just twice. Don't think there is much between these two sides and given their respective home and away form I think there is value in backing Celtic.

Bishops Stortford v Hereford

Taking a bit of a chance here and it would be typical after backing them in a couple of away games recently if Hereford did win this, but they lost both those games and then drew at Farsley. They have won just twice on the road, yet at home they have won 8 times. Bishops Stortford have done pretty well at home this season. Yes they have conceded 4 goals 3 times, but in their other home games they have lost it has been very close and they have won 4 times. At the prices I am happy to take a chance on the home side.

Braintree v Aveley

Usually I wouldn't only go a point on a team at this sort of price, but I do think they are slight value still so worth a point. I mentioned last week I thought Aveley were beginning to struggle and again we just failed to get paid out as they drew with Hungerford. Braintree had superb home form last season and it is the same again this time around having won 6 times and losing just the once to Maidstone. If they can keep up the good home performances then I think they will get the 3 points here.

Havant & Waterlooville v Taunton

I was very surprised that the Steve King era was a massive failure at Havant given his CV, but for whatever reason it didn't work and you can't ignore the fact they have won both games since he left. I watched a fair bit of the game on Wednesday against Hemel and I thought they deserved the win and scored two goals. Their squad is much better than their league position and they are finally showing it. Taunton are good at home, but away from home they have won just once. Now they have drawn most of their away games so that is a possibility, but now Havant have found that winning grove I think they are value to beat Taunton.

Canvey Island v Potters Bar

Happy to back Potters Bar again here as I did at the start of the month. In the league only Hornchurch have beaten them since they lost to Margate on September 9th. Canvey have only lost a couple of times at home and did beat Chatham in their last home game, but Potters Bar just shouldn't be as big as they are given their superb run.

Prices from 6pm Friday

Dorking 1pt @ 12/5 with Skybet, Paddy Power, Betfair and Betfred (take up to 15/8)

Solihull 1pt @ 7/4 with Bet365, Skybet and Coral (take up to 11/8)

Farsley 1pt @ 11/5 with Bet365 (take up to 7/4)

Bishops Stortford 1pt @ 16/5 with Skybet and Bet365 (take up to 5/2)

Braintree 1pt @ 19/20 with Bet365, Betfred, Skybet and William Hill (take up to 5/6)

Havant & Waterlooville 1pt @ 6/4 with Bet365

Potters Bar 1pt @ 16/5 with Skybet and Betfred (Hills are 100/30 and take up to 9/4)

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Darran

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