[Australian Jumps season 2022]

Another good morning with Flying Agent and Saunter Boy landing the two big races. Both returning bigger prices than I put them up at.

[Australian Jumps season 2022]

Just 2 more jump meetings in Oz before the season ends and we go to Sandown tomorrow for 3 races including the Crisp Steeplechase and the Grand National Hurdle.

 

Race 1

Really looking forward to the Crisp Steeplechase named after the great horse. I have felt the chasing sphere hasn't been overly strong this season, but we have 3 of the horses who have stared over the larger obstacles in the shape of Valac, Flying Agent and Elvison. All 3 have made us cash as well so which one of the 3 is going to come out on top here? I've been a long time fan of Valac and it was great to see him win at Pakenham in good style last time after a couple of falls. Steve Pateman has spoken about how much class this horse has and he should know given he's sat on some good ones. The one small doubt I have about him is if he needs this trip, but he wasn't stopping over 3500m at Pakenham. Flying Agent was average in this race last season, but he seemed to go off the boil over fences after winning the Brierley at the Warrnambool Carnival so I wouldn't read too much into that. I thought he was fantastic in his only jumps start this prep in the Thackeray at Warrnambool last month. He easily beat Yulong Place (reopposes here) that day and that horse had looked very good in his two wins over fences so the form looks rock solid. I did think Yulong Place didn't like being taken on for the lead and they went quick enough, but there is every chance that could happen here as well so I don't think the form will be reversed. Flying Agent had a very good run on the flat a couple of weeks ago here to keep him ticking over. He should be capable of much better than he showed in this race last season. Elvision has been like a cashpoint for us in 3 very easy wins over the hedge fences at Casterton. He was 2nd in the Australian Chase here in May and the ground would have been quick enough for him so these softer conditions should help. I'm just not sure he's quite got the class of the other two though. 

 

Mustang Harry did us a great turn when winning the maiden steeplechase at Pakenham last month and I can't understand why the horse he beat Brungle Bertie is shorter than him in the betting. If anything given his running style he should improve for the step up in trip. He does get plenty of weight from the others which will help, but at the same time I would be a little surprised if he was good enough.

 

One horse who I do think has been overlooked in the betting is Bee Tee Junior. I put him up as the forecast play last time at Pakenham and he ran well enough to finish 4th to Saunter Boy. 2 years ago he was 2nd in the Grand National Hurdle on this card and he then went on to win the Grand National Chase at Ballarat. He then missed the whole of last year and after a few flat runs and trials he has run in a couple of hurdle races. He has clearly been gearing up for this race and no doubt the Ballarat contest and I have seen enough in his two hurdle runs to think he still has plenty of his old ability. On his 2020 form he would be one of the favourites for this and he has to be backed e/w at his huge price.

 

It does hurt a little to not back Valac or Elvision here as I like both horses, but I think Flying Agent is the one they have to beat as for me that Pakenham performance was the best chase performance I have seen this season and if he runs up to that form here then I think he will be too good for them.

 

Flying Agent 1.5pts @ 5/2 with William Hill

Bee Tee Junior 1pt e/w @ 18/1 with William Hill

 

Race 4

This looks a bit of a match to me impressive maiden hurdle winners Chains Of Honour and Slipintothis at the head of the market. I tried to take on Chains Of Honour on his hurdling debut with Hostar who had really impressed me in his trail, but Hostar had no answers to the winner who really impressed me. Hostar then went and won himself beating Heir To The Throne at Pakenham a couple of weeks later. The 3rd home Dr Dependable also beat Heir To The Throne at Casterton so the form looks rock solid. As much as I like Hostar I don't really see any reason why the form should be reversed as he was well on top at the line. Chains Of Honour has had a run on the flat since to keep him ticking over nicely. Slipintothis was also impressive on debut as he bolted up by 8l, but that was a very weak race and I don't think the form is anywhere near as strong as Chains Of Honour. Of course that doesn't mean he won't beat him here, but I have to side with Chains Of Honour. Outside of those two and Hostar it is hard to really see anything else being good enough to win.

 

Chains Of Honour 2pts @ 6/4 with Bet365

 

Race 5

The feature race on the card is the Grand National Hurdle and it really does look like a match between the best hurdler in Australia Saunter Boy and the best hurdler in New Zealand The Cossack. I know on weights that St Arnicca has the beating of Saunter Boy based on the Galleywood Hurdle run back in May, but I don't think he will reverse form as I think Saunter Boy has improved since. He has looked so good this winning 4/4 over hurdles. He failed to finish in this race last year, but he suffered lacerations and I think that was the cause for his poor effort as he went and won at Ballarat 2 weeks later. He's probably a better horse this season as well. I tried to find some videos of The Cossack in action, but all I could find was the closing stages for his win 3 starts back. He's won 10/15 starts over jumps and he clearly has to be respected, but I think Saunter Boy will have his measure and he can make it 5/5 for the year.

 

Saunter Boy 2pts @ Evs with everyone

[Non-League Predictions > 6th August]

Not going to go mad on the first weekend as I don't pay much attention to friendlies and things are more based on how I feel teams are going to do during the season. It is just the 3 bets for me on day 1.

 

Torquay v Oldham

Torquay may have missed out on their best chance of promotion when they finished 2nd to Sutton a couple of years ago and then lost in a dramatic play-off final to Hartlepool. That final took place in late June because of Covid and that meant Torquay had little time before the new season started and that certainly hindered Gary Johnson's preparations. They struggled for the first few months of the season and it wasn't really until the 2nd half of the season where they really got going, but by then it was way too late to make a play-off bid. They have lost some of the stars from last season's team, but Johnson is one of the best managers at this level and I trust him to have got a good team together especially having been able to have had a full pre-season. Fans of relegated Oldham will be delighted that a takeover was finalised last week, but that hasn't come soon enough for me and their squad looks short of what is required to be challenging at the right end of the table at the current stage. Manager John Sheridan didn't have a great time of things when he was last manager in this league at Chesterfield and the fact he is in charge doesn't exactly fill me with confidence about their chances for the season either. It could be some money will be spent at some stage, but the squad isn't good enough for me at the moment. Johnson knows this level like the back of his hand and I think he and his Torquay side can get off to the perfect start to the new season.

 

Hemel Hempstead v Farnborough

The away side owe us after losing the title last season and I think they can get off to a winning start on their first season back at this level. They got their business out of the way quite early on and I was impressed with the quality of player they were signing. They might even be capable of sneaking into the play-offs. My feeling is they will be better prepared going into the start of the season than their hosts who had a very underwhelming season last time around. I'm not expecting a great deal of improvement, certainly to start with anyway, and I think it will be an away win here.

 

Taunton v Welling

Given I think Welling are going to have a very good season they look way overpriced to me in this game. Granted Taunton come here on the back of winning the title and the amount of points they won in the final 30 games of the season was staggering. They became winning machines, but I'm not sure they have strengthened all that much in the close season and losing their loanee goalkeeper on the eve of the season is hardly ideal. They might not end up in a relegation battle, but they look a bottom half of the table side to me. I don't need to repeat my views on Welling here given I have covered them in the ante-post preview, but if I am right then they look great value and they are my Nap's on the opening day.

 

AFC Rushden & Diamonds v Needham Market

I think Needham Market look value against Rushden. Rushden lost their manager to Tamworth last season and it looks to me like they could well struggle this time around. There has been a big turn around in players and their squad doesn't look good enough at the moment. Needham Market are a solid team and they are capable of winning this.

 

Torquay 1pt @ 11/8 with SBK (take up to 6/5)

Farnborough 1pt @ 2/1 with Paddy Power and Betfair (take up to 13/8)

Welling 2.5pts @ 11/5 with Paddy Power and Betfair (take up to 7/4)

Needham Market 1pt @ 21/10 with Betfred, Betfair and Paddy Power (take up to 6/4)

[Non-League Ante Post 2022/23]

National League South

I am astonished that Havant are still available at a double figure price. They certainly under achieved last season given their squad and their budget as they should have been in the play-offs at the very least. In the end they missed out on a spot by two points and it was mainly their home form which was to blame as they only picked up 29 points at home. Before Covid hit in 2020 they were just 3 points behind Wealdstone in 2nd place in their first season under Doswell. They still have one of the highest budgets in the division and Doswell has signed really well over the summer. Signing Muhammadu Faal on Tuesday looks a really good bit of business as he was a scoring machine for Enfield last season and if he can take that form into the league above then he could end up being the best signing of the summer for any team. 16/1 is a mad price and the only doubt about them I have is the manager as I just wonder if he was the reason they underperformed last season, but he knows how to win this league so hopefully they can bounce back and have a strong season. I think they should be 2nd favourites myself. 

 

Worthing are the 2nd bets. They won the Isthmian League at a canter last season which wasn't really a surprise as they put together one of the best sides seen at that level. It was already a side that looked capable of challenging at Step 2 and with the recruitment made over the summer they can kick on again and bid for a 2nd promotion on the bounce. 

 

The final bet is obviously a bit of a flyer as they are the outsiders, but Welling are way too big at 80/1. A change of manager at the back end of last season led to improvement and that kept them in the division. A change of the pitch has helped has well as the recruitment over the summer has been strong. I just can't see them being in a relegation battle again and really with the squad they have they should be looking at the play-offs and just maybe they can go even higher than that. Granted we are probably looking at a value loser, but I can't let them go unbacked at such big odds.

 

Ebbsfleet are favourites and they were so close to beating Dorking in the play-off final last season. I think they are the right market leaders, but Havant should be just behind them so it is clear where the value is. Dover have had extra cash to spend this season given they would have saved plenty last season when they were doomed to relegation before a ball was kicked. The problem they might have though is that the club is used to losing and although there are plenty of new players you it might just take a little bit of time to break that losing habit at the club. I thought David Oldfield did a hell of a job at Oxford City and I was surprised he went to Weymouth as they already looked set for relegation when he took over. They have had a huge turnover of players and whilst I like the manager I want to wait and see how they get on early doors. Dartford started the season off really well and went short for the title. After that they just struggled a bit as Steve King seemed to lose the plot a bit. They ended up going out of the play-offs at the first time of asking and King duly left. I think Alan Dowson was a good choice of replacement and they should be in contention again. The other team worth a mention are my local side Dulwich. They have by far the biggest support in the league and that has clearly led to an increase in budget based on the players they have signed. They barely won in the 2nd half of the season last term though and I still wonder if Gavin Rose is the right manager to take them to the next level. I think if they don't finish in the play-offs this season then it will surely be time for a change at the top.

 

National League North

Clearly it is wrong that James Rowe found another job so soon after leaving Chesterfield and Fylde are the only club who would possibly have given someone like him a job. As much as I hope it ends in failure for him they are the right favourites for the title and I think they are worth backing. Usually the North is strong, but I am not sure there is much depth in the division this season and they look to have the best squad. What Rowe needs to control is his temperament as he will surely come in for abuse at away grounds this season and when he went to Gloucester last season it clearly affected him and the players as they performed poorly and lost the game. That is the only doubt I have about them winning the title as they really ought to.

 

If Tommy Widdrington had been in charge of Kings Lynn earlier, then I reckon they might have stayed up because they weren't too far away in the end. They look to have a strong side for this level and they could easily get a top 3 spot so they look a solid e/w bet. The other bet at a big price is Buxton. Anyone who was able to beat South Shields last season were going to have a very good side and Buxton duly did that. They are a side that is well backed and the fact they were able to get Jamie Vermiglio in as manager from Chorley says a lot for me as well. As I mention above, I don't think there is much depth in the division this season so they look well placed to challenge straight away for another promotion.

 

Kidderminster are 2nd in the betting which is understandable. They clearly have plenty of cash after the FA Cup run last season and although they have lost some key players they still look strong after recruiting the new ones. I did notice last season their xG was rather low given how high up the table they were and they relied on wonder goals in a few games. They will need to create better chances this season to be possible title winners for me as they can't keep relying to wonder goals. Brackley finished 2nd last season thanks to a superb defence. They have lost a lot of players though which isn't going to help, but they are nearly always in the play-offs and they can manage that again. Boston would be my 4th pick at the odds as I am a huge fan of Paul Cox and he did well to get them to the play-off final last season. They should be in the mix again.

 

As for the others there will be plenty of sides who hope they can get into the top 7. Darlington, Spennymoor, Alfreton, Peterborough Sports (signed surprisingly well) and possibly even my own side Gloucester look the most likely to do so for me. Chester look a bit high in the betting and I think Chorley might struggle a little after Vermiglio left. 

 

Northern Premier League

I thought South Sheilds would win this easily last year, but Buxton beat them to the title. It was their away form which really cost them as they dropped some silly points on their travels. If anything, their squad looks even better this time around and they really ought to win the title. Like Wrexham though they look short enough, but they are worth putting in some multi bets like the Welsh side. I'm going to have a couple of e/w bets and hopefully one of them can get in the top 3. The first of them is Radcliffe. They were only 15th last season, but they have made some really impressive summer signings and they really ought to improve on that this season so they look a big price. The other team I like at the prices is Warrington Town who are always contenders and look in a good position to hit the top 3 this year with the squad they have.

 

Isthmian Premier League

I can understand why Hornchurch are favourites as they look to have a decent side yet again and can build on their 4th place finish from last season. At the prices though I prefer Bishops Stortford who finished 2nd to Worthing last season and although they never looked like catching them, they managed to score 89 goals whilst conceding just 33 which was the fewest in the division. They look to have strengthened the side well over the summer and I am surprised that they are available at a double figure price. The other team worth backing for me are Bognor Regis. They finished in 9th last season as they just lacked for consistency. I like the signings they have made over the summer and they ought to be in a position to challenge for the play-offs at least.

 

Southern Premier League Central

Ilkeston have been heavily backed for the title and are now a pretty short price at the head of the market. I was going to put them up, but they aren't value at the current price as much as they look set to go very well in what doesn't look the strongest division. What that does mean though is that Tamworth look a good price and we can back them e/w. They had a really poor season last time around which was surprising as they looked most likely to win the title win Covid hit back in 2020. Andy Peaks came in as manager from AFC Rushden which just highlights the potential Tamworth have because they were near the bottom at the time whilst Rushden were in play-off contention. They were unbeaten under Peaks and with the signings they have made they really ought to finish top 3 at the very least. The other team I will cover are Rushall. They finished 4th last season, but only got 6 points from their last 10 games which was shocking. They look stronger this season and clearly they weren't far away last season so I am happy to get involved this term.

 

Southern Premier League South

Hayes are favourites having gone close to winning the title last season and whilst they can go well again they look too short in the betting for me. There are two teams I like here both at double figure prices. I have put Weston-Super-Mare up for the last couple of seasons and they underperformed in the Covid season and it was looking like being more of the same last season, but then they really hit form later on in the season. Indeed, you only have to take the opening 12 games off their total and they would have finished 2nd behind champions Taunton. If they can carry last season's form into this one and they have evolved the squad nicely over the summer, then just maybe this is the year they can finally get promoted. The other team I like is Gosport who clearly have plenty of money to spend this season. They were originally put in at a stupidly big price and whilst that has long gone, I still think they are value because they have one of the best squads in the division and the odds don't reflect that.

 

NB As far as I know only Bet365 and William Hill have priced up the Step 3 divisions.

 

Solihull Moors 1pt e/w @ 11/1 with Bet365

Southend 0.75pts e/w 22/1 with Skybet

Woking 0.25pts e/w @ 61/1 with Skybet and 50/1 everywhere else (sadly the 80/1 with Paddy Power and Betfair is win only)

York 0.25pts e/w @ 40/1 with everyone

Ollie Palmer to be top goalscorer 0.5pts e/w @ 16/1 with Bet365

 

National League South

Havant & Waterlooville 1pt e/w @ 16/1 with Betfred

Worthing 0.75pts @ 12/1 with William Hill

Welling 0.5pts @ 80/1 with Betfred

 

National League North

AFC Fylde 2pts @ 4/1 with Skybet

Kings Lynn 1pt e/w @ 12/1 with Bet365, Coral and Ladbrokes

Buxton 0.5pts e/w @ 33/1 with Coral, Ladbrokes and Bet365

 

Northern Premier League

Radcliffe 0.75pts e/w @ 25/1 with Bet365

Warrington Town 0.75pts e/w @ 16/1 with Bet365

 

Isthmian Premier

Bishops Stortford 1.5pts e/w @ 12/1 with Bet365

Bognor Regis 1pt @ 8/1 with Bet365

Southern Premier Central

Tamworth 2pts e/w @ 6/1 with Bet365

Rushall 0.5pts @ 13/2 with William Hill

 

Southern Premier South

Weston-Super-Mare 1pt e/w @ 16/1 with Bet365

Gosport 1pt e/w @ 10/1 with Bet365

[Non-League Ante Post 2022/23]

15 hours ago, bromsgrovegreen said:

Excellent write up and info as always Darran,

Looking forward to the season......

Will you be doing ante post on the other leagues?

 

I'm heading to Bromsgrove sporting v St Ives Saturday, will report back with thoughts after the game. Not expecting much from Bromsgrove, lost all their best players(there weren't  many last season!) and have a complete rebuild with a new manager Thomas Baille. 

 

 

 

Yes all the others will be covered. Been on holiday which has delayed things but will be up Thursday or Friday.

[Non-League Ante Post 2022/23]

National League

This season sees the shortest price favourites that I can remember for the National League in the shape of Wrexham and they clearly deserve to be at the head of the market as they have the best team in the division and one that wouldn't look out of place in League 1. They haven't been as busy in the transfer market as I thought they would be, but it wouldn't surprise me if more players did arrive before the end of August. At the time I thought they paid enough money for Ollie Palmer from AFC Wimbledon, but he managed to score 15 goals after he joined which was a staggering return from just 22 games. Alongside Mullin they had a great front two and if both stay fit you have to think they will be looking at the possibility of scoring 50 goals between them. I have little doubt they have the best squad in the division, but what they don't have in my view is the best manager. Phil Parkinson was found wanting last season for me and I do think if they win the title it will be despite his abilities as a manager. The hope for Wrexham fans is that either that happens or that Parkinson has learnt from his first season in charge. Early in the season they struggled at home and were superb away, but that switched towards the end of the season and they put in some poor performances on their travels which cost them the title. If they can iron those issues out then they probably walk away with the title, but things are rarely that easy in the National League. Ultimately though I do think they are the most likely team to win the title, but I just can't back them at 6/4 as I would ideally want 5/2 at least. What I wouldn't mind happening is them having a poorer than hoped for start to the season and then he gets the sack and they get someone better in as happened at Stockport last season. Then would be the time to back them, but really it's hard to see them ever getting to decent price. They are one for any multi's you are going to do, but as I a single I just think they are too short.

 

Notts County are next in the betting as they look to get out of the league at the third time of asking after losing in the play-offs the last couple of seasons. I was a bit surprised to see Ian Burchnall leave to go to Forest Green Rovers because I didn't think he did a great job at County. They were never really in title contention at any stage although at the end they were only 6 points behind Wrexham. I think they have taken a bit of a risk going with Luke Williams as manager (or head coach as they like to describe the role). As I say every season you need a manager who knows the league to win the league and Williams has no experience at all of Non-League football. It was suggested that County tried to get the Altrincham manager Phil Parkinson in, but he turned them down. I'm sure it will a manager with no Non-League experience will win the league at some point, but I certainly don't think it is factored into their odds. Signings wise it has been an interesting summer as they have started to look at Step 2 having snapped up two Gateshead strikers and a couple from Kidderminster. The scouting website Wyscout covered Step 2 for the first-time last season and it wouldn't surprise me if that information coming available has led to them looking downwards for players. If Macauley Langstaff and Cedwyn Scott can replicate the success they had at Gateshead last season then that will put County right in the mix, but whilst Gateshead were a step above their rivals last year, it was a weak division, and they will face much stronger defences this time around. They should be good for the play-offs again, but I think they will fall short of the title again with Williams being a big risk for me.

 

I better be careful what I say about what James Rowe did to get himself sacked from Chesterfield, but if that hadn't happened and Tshimanga doesn't get injured then I think they would have won the league last season because they were so far clear of Stockport and Wrexham. However Rowe left and not long after than Tshimanga had a season ending injury against Weymouth. Paul Cook proved to be a shocking choice of manager and as much as injuries didn't help his cause he looked clueless as manager. In the end they were lucky to even reach the play-offs and whilst he is manager of Chesterfield I couldn't possibly back them for the league. There has been a big turnover in playing staff and to be fair they have got a decent squad again. The key thing for them though is how well Tshimanga has recovered from his major injury and he hasn't featured in pre-season which suggests he won't be ready for the start of the season. He was looking good for 40 goals last season which would have been a staggering effort and clearly any team who have a striker scoring that many is going to go close. If he struggles though or if he leaves then I don't think they will get close to winning the title and it wouldn't surprise me if Cook isn't manager come the end of the season. What I will say though is there is no excuses now for Cook as he has the team he wants now and maybe he will prove me wrong.

 

The next team in the betting are Solihull who had a stunning season to finish 3^rd under Neil Ardley. I wasn't sure he was the right man for the job when they hired him, but he did a better job than he had done with Notts County the previous season. At the time I thought they should choose Mark Yates who did very well as a temporary manager the season before, but Yates went back to Stourbridge and had a disastrous time of things and got sacked! Amazing how football works sometimes. I was really impressed with them last season and it should be remembered that they finished just 1 point behind Wrexham in the end. Now losing play-off finalists don't have a great record the following season and their can be a hangover for sure. I don't think that will happen here though and I think Solihull have done great business over the summer. First, keeping Joe Sbarra was a very pleasant surprise for them and then they picked Josh Kelly last week from Maidenhead which was a good move (he chose them over Southend). They might just be capable of over turning the losing play-off finalists stat.

 

Halifax overachieved again last season under Pete Wild and to get them to the play-offs was a superb effort. He's gone now though as has quite a few key players from that side and I just can't have them at all. They can't keep overachieving and I reckon they might even end up in a relegation battle. Dagenham & Redbridge had a great start to the season, but then flattered to deceive a bit and I'm just not sure McMahon is the man to kick them onto the next step and get them in the play-offs. It would surprise me if they finished just outside them again. Torquay could be interesting. Gary Johnson is one of the best managers in the league and they were hampered massively by the fact the play-off final was so close to the start of the season. They've lost some key players, but Johnson knows what it takes to build a good team at this level and whilst they look no more than fairly priced, they could well end up in the play-offs if Johnson has got it right again.

 

I don't fancy either of the relegated sides at this stage. Oldham look like they will be taken over which will help them, but Sheridan didn't exactly do much as Chesterfield manager so his experience at this level isn't great. They look under priced to me. Scunthorpe look in a right mess and if there was relegation betting available, I would be putting them up as a bet. Another team who I think would be final to go down is Yeovil. If your manager is leaving to go to Woking, then that doesn't say a great deal about the sort of budget that is available. I'm not sure about Chris Hargreaves as manager. He didn't do that well when he managed before and wen I listen to him on BT Sport's coverage of the league he doesn't strike me as someone who would make a great manager. I don't think they have done great business and I think they will struggle.

 

Boreham Wood suffered badly from injuries around the time they played Everton in the FA Cup and that hindered them badly in the final months of the season. They managed to go from title contenders to missing out on the play-offs. Luke Garrard is one of the best managers in the league and whilst he stays, I can see them always being in the mix for the play-offs. 

 

I think Southend could be in for a very good season. I like the set-up behind the scenes and having John Still and Darren Currie involved is a big plus for me. Their involvement helped turn things around for them massively after the disaster that was Phil Brown. Still knows this level like the back of his hand and I think he's recruited well. You have to think that if the current set-up had been in place a year ago then they would have been play-off contenders so there should be improvement to come and with the new signings they look a much stronger side as well.

 

Those teams make up the top half of the betting and whilst Wrexham might well end up winning it like I say they are for multi bets only. For me, the value is with Solihull Moors. I would make them 2^nd favourites based on the squad they have, and I just really liked the way they went about things last season. Given how strongly they finished the campaign you would hope that despite losing the play-off final they can kick on this season and at the very least finish in the top 3 again. I am also going to back Southend. I have a small doubt if they can make the step up to title contenders, but they have a strong squad and they are over priced for me.

 

There are two more teams I want to add from the bottom half of the betting. First of all I really don't get the price of Woking. Like I mention above they were able to get Darren Sarll from Yeovil last season and that more me said a lot about their ambition. I put them up last season as I thought they were way overpriced, and they got some huge victories early on. It sort of went wrong after that though and it cost Alan Dowson his job. I think Sarll was a good choice of manager and I think they have done some very good business over the summer. I just can't make them 50/1 shots and I would love a match bet with them at Yeovil at the very least! The other team I like at a big price is York. Now clearly going from National League North Play-Off winners to National League champions is going to be some feat, but they have been taken over and they seem to have a bit of money to spend based on their summer signings. It was a big surprise that Chesterfield let Alex Whittle go and the fact York managed to sign him up was a big sign to their chances. What I also like is the fact they have a league winner as their manager in the shape of John Askey. How on earth he got Macclesfield to win the title I will never know, but it is probably the best managerial performance at this level since I started betting on it in the 07/08 season. I could see them surprising a few people and am happy to have a small bet on them.

 

The top goalscorer market was especially painful last year given Tshimanga should have been a winning 40/1 bet. This season he is just 9/1 which probably isn't a bad price, but as I mention above it looks like he is missing the start of the season and it might take him a bit of time to get up to speed. He could be worth chancing at bigger odds once he returns to full strength. Last season's winner Paul Mullin heads the betting, but for me the value lies with his strike partner Ollie Palmer. As I point out above, he had an amazing scoring record after he moved to Wrexham from AFC Wimbledon and you have to think that if he had been there all season, he would have outscored Mullin. On that basis I am happy to have a small interest in Palmer e/w.

 

Solihull Moors 1pt e/w @ 11/1 with Bet365

Southend 0.75pts e/w 22/1 with Skybet

Woking 0.25pts e/w @ 61/1 with Skybet and 50/1 everywhere else (sadly the 80/1 with Paddy Power and Betfair is win only)

York 0.25pts e/w @ 40/1 with everyone

Ollie Palmer to be top goalscorer 0.5pts e/w @ 16/1 with Bet365

[Australian Jumps season 2022]

A cracking week last Sunday with Stern Idol winning with ease again and getting a 10/1 winner as well. This week we are back to Casterton for the final time this season with 3 races over the jumps on the card.

Race 1

As much as last week was very good it was annoying to see Hostar win the opener given I like the horse but wondered if he might find at least one of the newcomers too good. In the end he won by the narrowest of margins and the horse who was 2^nd is the odds-on favourite to win this on the seven day back up. Heir To The Throne put in a cracking performance on his hurdles debut and he deserves to be favourite here. I'm not sure he offers any great value though as much as he is the most likely winner. Laughing Grizzley was 3^rd one place behind Heir To The Throne in a flat race at Cranbourne last time so has an obvious chance on his hurdles debut, but I wasn't that impressed in his hurdles trial. The only other one in single figures is American In Paris and he is going to be the selection. He was a solid 2^nd over fences to Britannicus back in March and although he has been a bit disappointing since they have been in better races than this. In the Grand Annual he had an excuse as he was found to have a throat condition and finished lame. He was last on the flat at the beginning of the month, but has trialled well over hurdles since. Although he's been running over fences of late, he has got some good hurdles form including a 2^nd to Valac on his last hurdles start. If he can run to that level then he has a winning chance. We have the usual maiden hurdle runners like Dr Dependable and Thurmanator and they have place claims especially the latter.

 

American In Paris 1pt @ 11/2 with Paddy Power, Betfair, Coral, Betfred and Ladbrokes

 

Race 2

I have to be with Onset in this who yet again as been looked over in the betting which makes little sense to me. She has won for us twice at decent odds this season at Sale and over course and distance when just beating Tolemac. Since then she has finished 2nd to an impressive Blandford Lad at Warrnambool and then was a good 3rd to Saunter Boy at Pakenham last week. This will be her 4th run in a month and the possibility is it will eventually catch up with her, but otherwise I think she should be just about favourite for this. Big Blue and Tolemac head the market. Big Blue did easily beat Onset at Hamilton in May, but I think Onset has improved since then and I think she would have been in front of him at Warrnambool 3 weeks ago. Big Blue was hampered at the last that day and ended up pulling up, but Onset was already just about in front of him and was going the better. Tolemac was also in that race and was back in 5th so that is twice Onset has beaten him and I think she can do so again. Mighty Oasis is the other one with a chance and was just behind Tolemac in a maiden hurdle at Hamilton in May and he then went and won his maiden at Warrnambool. He went back there 3 weeks ago, but bumped into Stern Idol, but did manage best of the rest. For me Big Blue is the biggest danger, but Onset is over priced yet again and is the bet for me.

 

Onset 1pt @ 5/1 with everyone

 

Race 3

Elvision is 2/2 this season over course and distance and even though he's up in the weights again I just don't see him getting beat. He loves the hedge fences here and I just think he has a class edge on his rivals. Strictly speaking Mapping does have a chance of reversing the form from last time as he was 1.75L behind him in 2nd and he has run OK since in the Thackeray at Warrnambool when 3rd to Flying Agent. I don't think the form will be reversed though and I'd be surprised if Elvision didn't land the hat-trick.

 

Elvison 4pts @ 4/5 with Paddy Power, Betfair, Coral and Ladbrokes

[Australian Jumps season 2022]

Updated stakes for the season ahead of Sunday's meeting are Stakes 85pts Returns 120.33pts for a profit of 35.33.

[Australian Jumps season 2022]

Well that was a very profitable morning. Annoyed I didn’t put the first winner up but the rest won and great to get Mustang Harry over the line.

[Australian Jumps season 2022]

The profits continued a couple of weeks ago at Warrnambool and Stern Idol was especially impressive. He goes again at Pakenham on Sunday morning where we have an all jumps card made up of 6 races. Also of interest is ex UK jockey Fergus Gregory (guessing it's him and not another jockey with the same name) has rides on 2 favourites on the card so might get his first win in Australia.

 

Race 1

The opener is a Maiden Hurdle over 3200m and it has the potential to throw up a few winners as we have a few fair sorts coming from the flat in the shape of Bedford, Double You Tee, Heir To The Throne and Teofilo Star. The latter of those is ridden by Fergus Gregory and unless there is another Fergus Gregory then I am guessing it is the British jockey. He had a ride at Casterton last month, but he could well ride his first winner Down Under on Sunday as Teofilo Star has a good chance and he has a better chance in the 2^nd race. Out of those with hurdles experience I thought Hostar ran really well at Warrnambool, but in the end Chains Of Honour had too much class for him and whilst he should find a maiden at some stage I can't help thinking at least one of the other 4 will prove too strong for him. As for who might win I don't have a strong view and I am happy to sit and watch for future races.

 

Race 2

This Maiden Hurdle is over 3500m and unlike the first race it looks a pretty weak contest. Those with hurdles form already don't exactly set a tough standard. Dr Dependable has finished 2nd, 4th, 5th, 4th. 4th, 3rd, 4th, 2^nd and 3^rd in his completions (he fell once) over hurdles this season so he's fairly consistant, but the 2^nd wasn't strong form in my view and he has tended to be well beaten despite finishing in the places. He has been behind Thurmanator and it is 1 each in the head to head with Capellani. Thurmanator was 2^nd when Dr Dependable was 3^rd at Sale last month and that was behind a very impressive winner in Twin Spinner. He fell at Warrnambool last time and he was still in contention for a place where Capellani was 3^rd and Dr Dependable was 4th. I guess one of those could win at last, but I am happy to look elsewhere. Murrumbidgee Bridge is making his hurdles debut for top connections, but he hasn't exactly been in good form on the flat and I've not thought a great deal of his hurdle trials either. Slipintothis is the favourite and whilst I wouldn't want to get carried away with him I do think he's the most likely winner and worth a small bet. He had lost his way a bit on the flat this year, but his last flat run 3 weeks ago in a BM70 at Sandown was solid. He's had 3 hurdle trials and although there is no footage of the one this week, I thought he jumped well in his other two where he was given a very quiet school round. He was only beaten a length in that trial at Warrnambool on Wednesday so clearly he is nearing his peak and I think he could have the beating of these. British jockey Fergus Gregory takes the ride and is Teofilo Star hasn't won in the first then this could be his first winner in Australia.

 

Slipintothis 1pt @ 6/5 with most bookies

 

Race 3

Stern Idol was so impressive on his Aussie hurdling debut a couple of weeks ago at Warrnambool that I can't see him getting beaten here. It's a slightly stronger race, but I don't think he has too much to worry about if he repeats that performance. Big Blue is a good horse and he was eased after getting hampered at the last a couple of weeks ago, but I doubt he would have won and he might not have even been in the frame as he was looking very one paced at the time. Stern Idol does have to give a fair bit of weight away to the others, but they haven't shown the sort of form that would be able to have beaten Stern Idol the last time and so I just can't see it here either. I think he will go off a fair bit shorter than he is at the moment and I think even at odds on he is value.

 

Stern Idol 5pts @ 3/4 with Bet365

 

Race 4

The feature hurdle on the card and 5 of the 6 ran at Warrnambool a couple of weeks ago and Onset ran best of those when finishing 2^nd although Tamarack and El Diez were very close to her in 3^rd and 4th. Count Zero got tired after a poor jump at the last and was 7^th whilst the returning Bee Tee Junior was one place in front of him in 6th. I'm sure Bee Tee Junior will improve for that run and stepping up to 3500m should see some more improvement as well so he could end finishing best of those. He is sure to be building towards one of the big races at Sandown on August 7th. They all come up against Saunter Boy who is the best hurdler in Australia at the moment. He hasn't been seen over hurdles since winning the Australian Hurdle in May, but whilst the others ran at Warrnambool he ran at Flemington the same weekend and ran a very creditable 5^th of 10. That should put him spot on for this and he should make it 4/4 over hurdles this season. I was tempted to put Saunter Boy in a double with Stern Idol, but I think Stern Idol is a good enough bet by himself, so instead I will have a small forecast on Saunter Boy to beat Bee Tee Junior.

 

Saunter Boy to beat Bee Tee Junior 0.5pts f/c

 

Race 5

A Maiden Steeplechase over 3500m and the two at the head of the market are Bow Thruster and Brungle Bertie. The former hadn't shown too much in his first two hurdles starts, but was much better at Warrnambool last month when making the running and just got caught late on by Mighty Oasis. That's decent enough form in the context of this race and he did beat Valac in a steeple trial at Traralgon a couple of weeks ago, but annoyingly there is no footage of it. There is footage of Brungle Bertie's trial and it was OK, but no more than that. He was very impressive over hurdles here in April so clearly Pakenham suits him well and his next two runs over hurdles were solid efforts. He was 4^th in the Australian Hurdle and I think he didn't really see out the 3900m trip so dropping back 400m over a flat track should be a plus. He ran on the flat a couple of weeks ago, but it was clearly no more than a trial for him as he was well beaten. Zedstar will surely win over obstacles at some point, but he was well beaten on a Heavy 10 on his chase debut. I also don't think he was at his best back over hurdles at Casterton last time so I am happy to leave him alone. One I do think is overpriced is Mustang Harry who I didn't think was given a great ride behind Under The Bridge at Warrnambool a couple of weeks ago. He was flying down the straight and I'm actually surprised the stewards didn't query the riders tactics because for me he waited way too long to ask the horse for an effort. He had shown glimmers of promise over hurdles last term and I actually think a repeat of the run last time would be good enough to win this. I think he looks a solid enough e/w bet at the prices with Bow Thruster the main danger.

 

Mustang Harry 1pt e/w @ 10/1 with William Hill, Coral and Ladbrokes

 

Race 6

The feature steeplechase race on the card and it backs up my thinking that this sphere is not strong at the moment. Runaway won at Sale last time beating Cheners and Dewrinkler, but I think Valac looked the winner until he fell. Now that was his 2^nd fall on the bounce, but if he gets round safely I think he is the most likely winner of the race. He's had a couple of steeple trails since then and hopefully that has helped get his confidence back up. Te Kahu should improve for his first run in Oz, but he needs to and based on his New Zealand form I think he needs a longer trip than this. Under The Bridge got it done for us a couple of weeks ago and had Blood And Sand and Cheners in behind. That was a good effort and gives him a real chance in this although I think if Valac gets round then he can get the better of him. Valac is the main bet, but I will also cover Chief Sequoyah. He has been sent over from New Zealand and unlike Te Kahu this does look his sort of trip. The fact he's coming from New Zealand suggests that they think he can win races in Oz and given the lack of depth in this division then I am happy to have a bit on him as he could well prove good enough.

 

Valac 1.5pts @ 5/2 with William Hill

Chief Sequoyah 0.5pts @ 6/1 with Bet365

[UK Race Distances]

2 hours ago, leepeach said:

Hi

Can someone explain to me why UK race distances are rarely exact? eg 7f 6y, 1m 1f 207y. Why aren’t they 7f and 1m 2f?

Also it will be because rail movements mean distances move. For example Southwell have got some big distance increases because of that this evening.

[Racing Chat - Monday 4th July.]

2 hours ago, DanV89 said:

Brennan wants shooting for that ride.

Yeah should have won and apparently he was kicking himself afterwards. Said he hit a flat spot when he was asking him for an effort. Annoying as he was the best horse in the race. He should be winning races though and he jumps really well.

[Racing Chat - Monday 4th July.]

I'm looking forward to the 2.10 at Worcester this afternoon as for the first time a horse I have a share in looks set to be favourite for a race. You may remember Intrepide Sud ran in the point to point bumper at Aintree when ridden by Gina. The horse was very keen and she struggled to control him which takes some doing given how strong she is. It was actually a surprise that he was that keen and in the end she just had to let him stride on. I have seen a clip of Gina talking after the race and she said that he must be a good horse to run like that and not be beaten all that far. I know I said I didn't think the race was that strong, but he clearly has the potential to be much better than that run showed and in all honestly the race this afternoon looks even worse on paper. He has gone to Fergal O'Brien and he really likes the horse as does Paddy Brennan after he rode him in a piece of work. If he can translate his home work to the racecourse I do think he is the most likely winner of the race. Obviously the concern is he is too keen again and he might need a bit more time to learn to settle, but he wasn't keen in his point victory at Garthorpe and he's not keen on the gallops so hopefully it was just a one off at Aintree.

 

Western Safire was the other one at the head of the market but she is now a non-runner. Even so it does look like she's the main danger. Putalinthroughit makes is a newcomer but he was a cheap purchase so hard to think he is anything special, but clearly its a weak race so he might be able to run well. Milfolhas Has makes his debut for the Bowen's having run in a couple of points last year. First up he was 6^th in a bumper and then he pulled up in a maiden over 3m. He did show a glimmer of promise there and clearly he's gone to a good yard, but I don't think he's shown as much Intrepide Sud so he needs to have improved in the last year to beat him in my view. Orange Gina has finished 4^th at big prices in bumpers in 2020 and 2021. The first she was well beaten, but last time finished much closer having led. That was a bad race though and again the fact she led at a slow pace probably means she was flattered. Tampico Rocco was 6^th in this race last on his only ever start and although well beaten he did show a little promise. For some reason Charlie My Boy was been backed from 200/1 into single figures. He's been stuffed in all 3 starts and has only beaten one horse home so god knows whose backing it as there is nothing to recommend him at all, but he has just become a non-runner which seems a bit suspicious to me.

 

So all in all it looks a terrible contest and I unless he's too keen for his own good again then I struggle to see how anything will be good enough to beat if he replicates his home work. Shame the price isn't bigger, but it is hardly a surprise given how bad the race is.

 

Intrepid Sud @ Evs with most bookies

[The Racing Post and ITV partly responsible for low attendances?]

11 hours ago, calva decoy said:

No worries , lots of competitions to win Free tickets / points etc... most weeks , just make sure you log into your account every week to accrue your points .

I got a new sofa from Argos , cost £380 & got I think £30 into my Rewards4Racing account so 2 free days racing , it's similar to topcashback but for racing purposes ?

Also if you bet via Bet365, Coral, Betfred or Betfair Sportsbook then you get a 1pt for every pound you bet. Certainly recommend signing up if you haven't and you want to go racing. 

[The Racing Post and ITV partly responsible for low attendances?]

Can we all be very careful about what we write on here please. I’ve taken the decision to delete one post because quite frankly it was bang out of order and untrue.  

[Australian Jumps season 2022]

Onto Warrnambool we go with 5 jumps races on Sunday including a couple of features over hurdles and fences.

Race 1
Probably one of the better maiden hurdles we have seen of late here and Chains Of Honour is the fairly short price favourite. It's easy to see why based on his flat form and he won a BM70 at Moonee Valley in November. His only flat run this prep was last month when a good 2nd from the front at Swan Hill. Prior to that he had 3 hurdle trials and I watched the last of those at Traralgon. His jockey tried to get him to settle in behind horses, but he didn't jump great and in the end he just let him stride on and he jumped much better. My concern about him for me is the Heavy 10 ground which is basically an unknown as he's only seen a heavy track once and that was in the ATC Derby at Randwick. I also just wonder if he might end up burning himself out as we saw with Constantinople here last month so whilst he's more than good enough to win there could be value in taking him on. Dr Dependable was 2nd last week to Gravistas, but I think this race is stronger. Flying Pierro was 2nd over course and distance in that Constantinople race, but I'm not sure that form is trust worth myself. I actually think Killourney will reverse the form as if he is ridden with a bit more restraint then he will see it out better. Also they are adding headgear which the jockey said he needed after that 3rd. Yulong Rising has finished 2nd and 3rd to Onset in a couple of handicaps, but this first try in maiden company might actually end up being a tougher ask. God knows what happened to Hakuna Matata last week at Casterton. She was a huge disappointment and I'm a bit surprised they are running her on the 7 day back up. I will be really annoyed if she does win and if it had been a longer gap between races I might have chanced her, but this is a stronger race than her other 3 jumps runs this prep. There is another interesting newcomer as well in the shape of Hostar. I thought he did really well in his hurdle trial a couple of weeks ago and he's been running well on the flat in a couple of BM64's. Crucially we know he likes heavy ground and he is an interesting contender.

So Chains Of Honour might be good enough, but there are enough concerns for me to take him on at short odds. Killourney is certainly good enough to win a race like this and I think he paid for chasing Constantinople last time so hopefully his rider will ride him a bit more conservatively here. So he's one bet and I will also back Hostar as well because he's in good form on the flat and seemed to love jumping hurdles in his trial.

Killourney 1pt @ 11/2 with Betfair and Paddy Power
Hostar 1pt @ 17/2 with Betfair and Paddy Power

Race 2
A fascinating contender in this is the top one Stern Idol who is an ex-French hurdler. He won at Auteuil last May and finished 6th in a Listed Race that September on his last start in France. He's had 3 hurdle trials in Oz and I like the way he jumps this style of hurdle. He had a flat run 3 weeks ago at Swan Hill and ran a perfectly respectable 8th. The one slight worry is the Heavy 10 conditions although I suspect it will be fairly similar to what he has raced on before in France. It seems sensible to claim off him as he has top weight and his jockey has ridden him in his trials. 

The favourite is Twin Spinner who was very impressive at Sale a month ago on his first jumps start in Australia having come over from New Zealand. He's set his own pace at in front and when he quickened it up he put the race to bed in style. He certainly faces stiffer competition here though.

Sky Hero won over course and distance last time, but I feel that Constantinople set the race up for a closer and Flying Pierro was 2nd which also puts a dampener on the form for me. Mighty Oasis had to work hard to win the other division of the maiden hurdle that day in a time that was 6 seconds slower although his closing 600m was 6 seconds quicker. It was a deserved win as he had 3 2nds to his name prior to that.

I'm going to take a chance with Stern Idol. He's with the right connections and there is a strong chance he has shown stronger form in France than the others have shown in Australia and New Zealand. He jumps Australian hurdles well based on his trials and he looks an exciting horse going forward.

Stern Idol 1pt @ 14/5 with Bet365

Race 3
The feature hurdle on the card and it looks a strong contest. Big Blue is the favourite and it was good to see him bounce back to form at Hamilton last time when he was an impressive winner. He had finished last over course and distance prior to that. I think this is tougher, but we know he has the back class to win this. What also helps him here is that because of Bee Tee Junior having such a high rating he only has to carry 66kg so he has an obvious chance. Speaking of Bee Tee Junior it is great to see the Grand National Chase winner in 2020 back over obstacles after missing all of last year. He's had 3 flat runs and 3 trials, but I'm happy to see how he gets on here against some hard fit rivals especially as his last flat run was 45 days ago. Onset has done us proud this season and was gutsy again last week. She was 3rd behind Big Blue at Hamilton and I just can't see her reversing that form so I will not be backing her here. Blandford Lad picked up Constantinople at Sandown and was 2nd in the Champion Novice here in May. He's got a chance. Count Zero has done well since going over hurdles and was a decent 2nd here last time after winning his first two. Tolemac and Fort Charles aren't completely out of it either, but the one I am putting up is St Arnicca. He started off his season with a win here in March before disappointing a little when 4th at Pakenham. That was behind Saunter Boy and he was much close to him in the Galleywood when only being beaten by 0.4L. Saunter Boy is the best hurdler we have seen this season so to push him so close was a good effort and he has since been a good 3rd on the flat at Swan Hill. It's a trappy race, but he looks the value play at the prices.

St Arnicca 1pt @ 11/2 with William Hill and Bet365

Race 4
We have Cheners and Dewrinkler coming out of the same race at Sale a month ago where they were 2nd and 3rd just behind Runaway. I don't think that form is overly strong though as Runaway set a pretty fast pace and they still couldn't get past him. I also think Valac would have won had he not unseated. It could be said that Dewrinkler will strip fitter for the run as it was his first of the prep, but he was ridden to stay the trip and he now goes over even further on more testing ground so that has to be a worry with him. I've put up Getting Leggie every start this prep and whilst the first two were promising, I thought he was poor in the Australian Chase last time. He's not been seen since so maybe something was up and to be fair he was given a strange ride, but he was well beaten in the end. He has the class to win this, but I am passing him over this time. Laylite has had to chase Yulong Place the last twice and hasn't got close either time. This should be easier, but I think Under The Bridge can reverse form with him and I make him the selection. He does have a problem with the 2nd last here though as he fell at it in May and then last time he made a bad blunder and he went from travelling well to coming under pressure. He finished 3rd in the end, but if he can jump the 2nd last better this time then I think he's the one to beat.

Under The Bridge 1pt @ 9/5 with Betfair and Paddy Power

Race 5
Flying Agent was turned over in this last year when a long odds on fav and he could only finish 4th. he had won the Brierly last year, but after that his jumps form really didn't hit the heights that it had done in the past. If he is back to his best then he can easily win this. He's had a couple of decent enough flat runs this prep and has won a couple of chase trials including beating Yulong Place by a length (no video footage). A couple of weeks ago he bolted up in a trial here so the signs are promising, but he will face a stiffer test here. Britannicus is the fav and he comes here on the back of winning the Australian Chase in May beating his stablemate Elvison. He has had the one trial since then on the same day as Flying Agent and won his in a time 11 seconds slower. My big concern though is the testing ground as he's not even hit the place in 4 starts on a heavy track. Yulong Place is very much the up and comer. He was pretty average over hurdles, but has been devastating in 2 chase starts. First off he won by 25L and although Laylite got close over course and distance last time it was still a dominate victory. He clearly loves a Heavy 10 track and although this is another step up he gets 5kgs from the other two leading contenders. I think he can win this and make it 3/3 over fences although I will cover Flying Agent as if he returns to his best he is easily the main danger as I can't have Britannicus on the ground.

Yulong Prince 2pts @ 2/1 with everyone
Flying Agent 1pt @ 5/2 with William Hill

[RACING CHAT - WEDNESDAY 29TH JUNE 2022]

Quite how Bet365 made The Big Sting a 6/1 shot for the 1.30 at Worcester this afternoon I don't know. He's 6/8 in points the season just gone so that alone made me think he would be a fairly short priced favourite. Then when you look at the fact in his last one he stuffed Port O'Clock by 20L and that one landed an Exeter hunter chase in April and went very close to landing a handicap at Worcester a couple of weeks ago off 100. The Big Sting has a mark of 90 for this race so that form alone gives him a massive chance here. His other form is good and even the 2 2nds are very good pieces of form in the context of this race. One of the horses who beat him was Indirocco who we know ran well in a couple of hunter chases this year. He could have been found a weaker race to be fair as a few of these come here in good form and the main danger for me is probably Ballymilan who looks like there could well be more to come having won his last two. Basically though if The Big Sting shows his pointing form then he really ought to win and I still think the price is value.

 

The Big Sting @ 7/4 with Bet365, Paddy Power, Betfair and BetVictor

[Racing Chat - Friday 24th June]

6 hours ago, Bang on said:

Amateur and apprentice jockey races always seem to have 'some' riders who are always a bit too eager to impress and end up causing problems for those who are more 'professional' in their approach.

I don't have a problem backing a selection ridden by an amateur or apprentice... but not in a race confined to them.

I agree, some pro jockeys are very over rated ( won't name names) but I tend to avoid them if at all possible.

Riders can be a big plus in amateur races. James King for example yesterday gave the 2nd a cracking ride and you can make it pay in amateur races.

[Australian Jumps season 2022]

A couple of winners last week including the Nap. We have action most Sunday's now between now and the end of August and there are 3 more races at Casterton in the early hours of the morning. Probably my favourite jumps track in Oz because I love the hedge fences they have their and well worth checking out the steeplechase race if you don't usually watch the tips and just look at the result.

Race 1

As usual we start with the maiden hurdle and I do like the look of Hakuna Matata. She was 2nd here on the first hurdles start this prep and the winner Onset has boosted the form since as has the 3rd Dubawi Prince. A couple of weeks after that she went to Hamilton and tried to make all, but wasn't able to see it out and was beaten by Fort Charles who ran well last week. They look two really solid 2nd places in the context of this race and I think she can get a deserved hurdles success. Cappellani has certainly improved for his first hurdles start in Australia when he was behind Hakuna Matata in 5th place over course and distance. He was then 3rd at Hamilton behind Dubawi Prince and then 3rd last week behind Mighty Oasis when he was doing his best work late and was only beaten a couple of lengths. That suggests stepping back up to this trip should suit and he is certainly a danger. Gravistas ran OK at Sale and has place claims on his 3rd at Hamilton the start before. The other one to mention is good old Zedstar who has had 10 starts over jumps now for 4 2nds and 4 3rds. He was disappointing on his debut over fences at Hamilton and wasn't great on the flat at Geelong last week. He will surely win a maiden hurdle at some point, but he's clearly a frustrating horse. I think the price on Hakuna Matata is too big and she makes plenty of appeal.

Hakuna Matata 2pts @ 3/1 with Paddy Power, Betfair, Coral and Ladbrokes

Race 2

Tamarack was 2nd in the Australian Hurdle last time, but I'm not sure the strength of that race is that good behind the very good winner Saunter Boy. He ran over course and distance before that and was beaten 7L into 3rd place. I certainly think he's a possible winner, but I am going to look elsewhere. Cheners was 2nd over fences last time and was just beaten by Runaway. He does tend to run his race, but he has won just twice in 27 jumps starts so as much as he has place claims in a race like this I'm not sure he is going to win. Onset has done us well this season having won twice when we have been on including last time at Sale. The other win was when she beat Hakuna Matata over course and distance. I was impressed with her win last time and although she wasn't quite as good in the two runs in between those two wins she can win a race like this. She beat Yulong Rising last time, but I can't see the form being reversed although it was that one's first jumps run so he could build on it. The most likely winner for me though is Tolemac who has done very well over hurdles this prep. He was just in front of Onset at Warrnambool when 2nd and he was 2nd over course and distance when just getting caught late on. Mighty Oasis was 2nd to him at Hamilton and obviously he franked the form last week. He goes into handicaps for the first time, but he has a good chance of making it a winning one. So Tolemac is the main bet, but I will have a saver on Onset as well.

Tolemac 2pts @ 7/5 with Bet365

Onset 0.5pts @ 4/1 with everyone

Race 3

Elvison was so impressive when bolting up over course and distance last month that I have to be with him here. Historic was 25L back in 2nd and he reposes here having followed that run up with a win, but I can't see him reversing form if Elvison is in top form. Elvison ran on the 7 day back up in the Australian Chase, but his trainer said before the race that he was only running him there because it was a small field that wasn't very strong. He ran well enough to finish 2nd to his stablemate Britannicus and the month off will have done him good no doubt. He jumped so well over the hedge fences and that course form could well prove crucial here. Police Camp has come out which is a shame as it means Elvison is odds on now. Police Camp won a trial at Warrnambool on Tuesday and in that trial he beat Te Kahu who is going to be making his Australian debut here. In New Zealand he won 3 times over fences including over 6200m on his last start in October. Now he has won over 3500m, but when watching that trial he seemed to lack a bit of toe and even though this is 3800m I just wonder if he is going to come into his own when seeing a real test of stamina. He is with the right training team with Maher & Eustace so I certainly respect him, but I think Elvison can add to his course and distance win last month and even though he's odds on I think he still offers value at 8/11.

Elvison 3pts @ 8/11 with William Hill, Coral and Ladbrokes

[Racing Chat - Friday 24th June]

6 hours ago, Bang on said:

Disappointing, Bagan looked to be going quite well when a jockey in front unseated, which in turn unseated Bagan's jockey... that's why I rarely bet in non pro jockey races. Calliope finished 3rd so each way small loss.

Not sure how what happened to Bagan had anything to do with the fact it was an amateur rider race. Some of the jockey's in the race are better than a fair few pros.

[Racing Chat - Friday 24th June]

Cartmel's opener this afternoon sees Grageelagh Girl look to right the wrong of the last hunter chase of the season. I'm sure you all remember the weight cloth coming off after the last fence and thus she had to be disqualified. She would have won anyway and I did say in the race review that it wouldn't surprise me if her trainer decided to take advantage of the handicap mark. I also mentioned I didn't think the handicapper could touch the mark given the mark of the 2^nd and that is exactly what has happened. She goes back over hurdles tomorrow and she has good hurdles form. She last ran over them at Bangor in 2020 and finished a close 3^rd off 108 so even on that run the mark of 102 in a lower grade makes her look well handicapped. She's clearly in very good form at the moment and I think the drop in trip will help as I was worried she wouldn't stay in the final hunter chase of the season. She was entered at Newton Abbot earlier in the week, but I suspect Fergal has chosen this race as his daughter can take the ride against fellow amateur riders again. She's been entered over fences next week so a quick follow up wouldn't be a shock either. This is a very weak contest and I can only really make a case for the two horses who won the 2 divisions of a handicap hurdle over course and distance last month. Dan Gun has only gone up 3lbs but he wasn't quite as impressive as On We Go who has been in great form for her new yard. She's gone up 9lbs, but I still think there could be more to come and she is the biggest danger for me. I will probably end up having a saver on her given I think she might drift as I suspect Grageelagh Girl will be well backed. Sometimes you see something surprising in a race like this, but I'd be a bit surprised if that happened here given the strong claims of those two.

 

Grageelagh Girl @ 7/2 with Bet365

 

In the 2^nd race I am also going to have a small e/w bet on Watch Law. Now the Irish horses at the head of the market might just be too good for him, but I have watched his last point run and I think he has a fair bit of ability. He jumped pretty terribly for most of the race and was still only just beaten. He clearly has an engine as they pulled a long way clear of the others. Hopefully he can jump hurdles better because if he does I think he might be capable of out running his odds at the very least.

 

Watch Law ew @ 20/1 with Bet365

 

In the 3.40 I think Post No Bills is worth backing e/w. His pointing form suggests that his handicap mark is one he could well win off and he makes his chasing debut in a pretty poor race this afternoon. He put his best run yet over hurdles last time at Fakenham and I think he can improve again for going over fences. Bookies are going 4 places and I would be a bit surprised if he didn't finish in the first 4 at least. Darius Des Sources is a danger as a wind op seems to have helped him based on his last two efforts and the Perth 3^rd last time was his best run in ages. The main danger though is the favourite Mah Mate Bob who ran really well here last time when 2^nd in a race he won last season. He's still 11lbs below that winning mark and down into Class 5 company he surely will go close again.

 

Post No Bills ew @ 13/2 with Bet365

[Racing Chat - Saturday 18th June (Royal Ascot Day 5)]

Frankies Fire is out again at Perth this afternoon and she has to be backed again. That Hexham race last time was run in a crawl and the jockey seemed to get caught out by that. She was staying on well at the end after getting outpaced and the time of the race was so much slower than the rest of the card. I'd be surprised given the bigger field if they didn't go a stronger pace here and this is a really weak contest. There are so many who it is hard to make any sort of case for and we know she has the potential to be well handicapped if things go her way. Young William is shorter than her in the betting and has to carry 1st8lbs more yet if this was a point he would be a massive price to beat her on these terms. I don't trust the form of his 3rd last time and I suspect Pammi will reverse form. She looks the most obvious danger as her record at Perth is very good and I don't think the way the race was run last time would have suited. That run was a very rare time where she was out of the first 3 at the track. Amazingly some bookies are going 4 places so I am happy to have a decent bet e/w on her. I know she's becoming a cliff horse, but clearly connections think she can win given they are carrying on racing her so hopefully she can get that win.

 

Frankies Fire e/w @ 13/2 with Bet365, Skybet and Coral (4 places)

[Australian Jumps season 2022]

Race 1

2 years ago this Constantinople was finishing 2^nd to South Pacific (also gone to Australia and has done well) in the King George V Stakes and he now finds himself running in a maiden hurdle at Warrnambool. I put him up on his hurdles debut as I thought his class would be good enough and it nearly was. His jumping wasn't perfect and no doubt it will improve, but the main problem is he over raced a bit and ended up pulling himself clear of the rest of the field as they went out on their final circuit. Jumping the last he looked the winner, but he was caught within yards of the line. His had a run at Flemington when again he pulled hard but ran well to finish 3rd. He is going to have to settle better here I think because the ground is going to be testing, but he clearly is the best horse in the race. Killourney was much better on his 2^nd hurdles start at Hamilton when only just being beaten by Dubawi Prince that came on a Heavy 10 so the ground wont be an issue. He's run OK on the flat since and should go well. Yulong Rising ran well enough on hurdles debut in a handicap when finishing 2^nd to Onset and he can go well if building on that. The only other one to mention is Mont Agel who handles testing ground and did well in his hurdles trial. There is a slight concern about him seeing it out in this ground, but Constantinople does handle this ground and I think he can finally win another race.

 

Constantinople 1pt @ 5/4 with Coral and Ladbrokes

 

Race 2

Capallani was OK on debut at Casterton a month ago and built on that when a 3L 3^rd at Hamilton a couple of weeks later. He had won 2 on the flat prior to those and if progressing again has a leading chance. Hunua Hank is an interesting hurdling debutant. He has had 3 hurdle trials and I liked his jumping in the last of them. He was a good 4^th on the flat 18 days ago and likes a heavy track. Thurmanator was 12L 2^nd to Twin Spinner at Sale a couple of weeks ago and he was in front of Dr Dependable. I suspect the winner is above average and there is certainly nothing of his quality here. Mighty Oasis looks the one to beat though having now finished 2^nd on his last 3 hurdles starts. His two hurdle starts this prep have seen him beaten 0.2L both times and this does look a good opportunity for him to get his head in front. It was a Heavy 10 at Hamilton last time so the ground isn't going to be an issue and the previous 2^nd was over course and distance.

 

Mighty Oasis 1pt @ 2/1 with William Hill, Coral and Ladbrokes

 

Race 3

This looks a decent little race. Two of the maiden winners from Hamilton clash here in the shape of Dubawi Prince and Fort Charles. The latter was 4 seconds quicker and clocked a faster last 600m sectional as well which is interesting. Now the ground was downgraded from a Heavy 8 to a Heavy 10, but I suspect it was pretty testing for Fort Charles' race anyway. Fort Charles was visually more impressive as well although I think Dubawi Prince beat the better horse. El Diez also ran at Hamilton and was a good 2^nd to Big Blue who was simply too good for them. Onset was 3^rd and she has won since so the form is good. He took the Champion Novice over course and distance on a Heavy 10 last month. He was 6^th in the Australian Hurdle in between and was in front of Out And Dreaming who was very disappointing in last. He had run very well behind Saunter Boy at Pakenham and here on his two previous starts and if he is in that form he's got a big chance. The other one to consider is Count Zero who is 2/2 over hurdles having won here and at Casterton last month. This is tougher, but he's hard to knock.

 

Any of those could win this and it wouldn't surprise, but El Diez is the biggest priced of them and that surprises me so I will make him the bet as he looks the value.

 

El Diez 1pt @ 9/1 with Bet365, William Hill, Ladbrokes and Coral

 

Race 4

I suspect this is probably between the top 2 on the racecard. Under The Bridge was running well until falling here in May, but I suspect Once Were Lost would have beaten him and he went onto win the race. I'm rather surprised to see that he is favourite. That was a good effort from Once Were Lost and he was a solid 3^rd in the Australian Chase last time. Yulong Prince hadn't looked anything special over hurdles, but he clearly loved the change to fences as he bolted up by 25L (beating Laylite) at Hamilton on his chasing debut last month. That came on a Heavy 10 and if he backs it up he's surely going to be quite hard to beat. I think at the prices both can be backed with preference for Yulong Prince.

 

Yulong Prince 2pts @ 19/10 with Bet365

Once Were Lost 1pt @ 100/30 with Ladbrokes and Coral

 

[Racing Chat - Wednesday June 15th]

11 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

I think that your idea might be best for specific big festival races rather than the whole meeting.  For example someone could start off a thread for next year's Epsom Derby and it could run right through to the 2023 day of the race.

I am not a techie so I like to see selections in one place on the day of the race.  Indeed, I sometimes nearly miss your excellent "hunter chase" write-ups because I forget to check your correctly described post as it is not where I normally look

Maybe we have ante post threads for Cheltenham and Ascot and then individual ones for big races like the classics and the grand national where there is little ante post betting apart from the big race. Then come actual race day all tips are in the normal thread like today.

[Racing Chat - Wednesday June 15th]

13 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

I wish members would stick to the standard format for "Racing Chat" thread.  Tinkering with this is can't help new or existing members

I'm wondering if in future we maybe have separate threads for the big Festivals so chat can be had in advance should people wish and then have day of race runs for the other meetings. Think it would be good to get the chat going earlier as well.