[Racing Chat - Thursday 31st March]

Some of you might remember that I have a share in a filly in Australia and she has the first start of her 2nd prep on Thursday morning at Kyneton (R3 4.30am). I think she has a decent chance at a double figure price and here are my thoughts on the leading contenders.

Belle Et Riche - 3^rd on debut at Moe last August wasn't a bad race with the winner winning at Moonee Valley since and the 4^th won on its next start. That was on a Heavy 9 but seems to handle quicker ground based on her jump outs.

 

Kashmere Star - Good 3^rd on debut at Mornington in November behind an impressive winner who had been running in Group races. 

 

Let Fly - Was 2^nd on her debut last April, but then not so good in her next two starts. Returned this prep with a fast finishing 2^nd over course and distance 2 weeks ago. If she can repeat that effort then has a big chance here.

 

Whywhywhydeliah - Was sent off fav on debut, but was disappointing. Stepped up on that on her 2^nd start when 3^rd 3 weeks later. 

 

Beneficio - She has progressed well since her last prep and was impressive when winning a jumpout recently. Usually she would have had a trial after that, but she's in such good form that the trainer has decided to send her straight to a race instead. The downside is she has drawn the outside stall, but she has so much speed from the gates that I think she will be able to track across without using too much energy up. The only other speed in the race from what I can see will come from Excela Bella who is actually drawn inside her so they might be able to come over together. She was a bit disappointing at Ballarat on the final start of her first prep, but she didn't seem to let herself down on the ground that day and the close 2^nd over course and distance was a top class effort. On that effort she has a great e/w chance here.

 

Verdict - I think the winner will come from the above 5 and I do think Beneficio is over priced at 10/1. The question will be if she can hold off the finishers in the final furlong, but at the very least I think she can finish in the first 3. I can see why Belle Et Riche is favourite, but I think Let Fly is the one who can take this out. He has the benefit from a recent race and clearly course and distance suits well based on that 2^nd a couple of weeks ago. Obviously I hope Beneficio will be able to hold on, but if Let Fly repeats her finishing effort from a couple of weeks ago then she might just lose her maiden tag.

 

Let Fly @ 11/4 with Paddy Power, William Hill, Betfair and Coral

Beneficio e/w @ 10/1 with everyone apart from William Hill

[Non-League Predictions > 26th March]

Can’t believe Wrexham were the team to let me down.

[Non-League Predictions > 26th March]

It is Non-League Day on Saturday and hopefully it can be a profitable one for us.

 

National League treble

Although Stockport surprisingly went 2 down against Wealdstone last Saturday the fact they still ended up winning the game 4-2 spoke volumes about how strong they are. Amazingly they even felt the need to strengthen on Thursday ahead of the transfer window closing. They travel to an Eastleigh side who are continue to struggle and didn't even have a shot on target on Tuesday night in the defeat against Dagenham. Weymouth are doomed to relegation and they look in shocking shape at the moment. They are conceding plenty of goals and Torquay really ought to get another 3 points. Finally Wrexham look in cracking shape right now and as much as I can't see them catching Stockport they should finish 2nd. I can see them scoring a few past Dover but will stick the -1 handicap in the treble.

 

Guiseley v Chester

I was very keen to oppose Guiseley on Tuesday night and apart from missing a penalty they created very little against Telford. Sadly for us Telford couldn't muster a shot on target despite threatening more than their hosts. Chester were very unfortunate to draw at Gloucester on Tuesday night as they dominated the game yet Gloucester somehow got an injury time equalizer. Chester are scoring plenty of goals at the moment and I think they will have too much for a Guiseley side who are looking like they might be the ones to go down from the National League North this season.

 

Chelmsford v Hungerford

Neither side come into this game in great form with the home side losing 6 on the bounce and the away side 4. Things aren't right at Chelmsford at the moment though with the fans unhappy with what is going off the pitch. They are in big danger of being the team to be relegated from the division this season. Hungerford have conceded 14 goals in those 4 loses, but then Chelmsford have only scored 3 times in their 6 defeats so their defence might be able to hold out. Hungerford have been scoring goals though and of course they pushed our bets Eastbourne close last Saturday. I just don't think there is as much between the two sides as the betting suggests so the away side are worth a bet.

 

Slough v Braintree

Braintree continue to be one of the form sides in the division and only Maidstone (twice) and Dulwich have beaten them in their last 10 league games. They are also the only side to have beaten Slough in their last 7 league games and I think they look value to do the same again here. I know Slough have only lost that one game in 7, but they haven't been massively convincing in their performances and again these two teams should be closer together in the betting.

 

Stockport/Torquay/Wrexham -1 2pts treble @ 1.94/1 with Betfred (take up to 6/4)

Chester 2pts @ 23/20 with William Hill and Betfred (take up to Evs)

Hungerford 1pt @ 13/5 with William Hill and BetVictor (take up to 13/8)

Braintree 1pt @ 3/1 with William Hill and BetVictor (take up to 2/1)

[VOTE PUNTERS LOUNGE IN SBC AWARDS]

It is time for the yearly SBC (Secret Betting Club) awards and for the first time Punters Lounge have been named in the favourite betting website award. It's going to be hard for us to win, but it would be great to get as high as possible as it would certainly help in getting the name of Punters Lounge out to even more people.

https://smartbettingclub.com/2022awards/

[VOTE PUNTERS LOUNGE IN SBC AWARDS]

It is time for the yearly SBC (Secret Betting Club) awards and for the first time Punters Lounge have been named in the favourite betting website award. It's going to be hard for us to win, but it would be great to get as high as possible as it would certainly help in getting the name of Punters Lounge out to even more people.

https://smartbettingclub.com/2022awards/

[Australian Jumps season 2022]

The 2nd jumps meeting of the season comes from Warrnambool and as per last week we have a maiden hurdle, an open hurdle and an open steeplechase.

Race 1

It is no real surprise that Hush Write is the short price favourite as he has some very good flat form. His last flat run saw him finish 4th in a Listed Race at Randwick and certainly nothing else in this race which could get anywhere near that. There is only video available of one of his hurdle trials and he didn't jump all that well although he wasn't exactly asked for an effort at any stage. This is a very weak contest though and if he didn't win this it would be very disappointing. Once Were Lost is solid enough and might be capable of placing, whilst Johnny Buccaneer looks like being the biggest danger to the favourite.

Race 2

I'm keen on Annunciate here. I don't fancy any of those who ran last week so I'm happy to pass those over. So Belafonte was only seen once over hurdles last year and was only 4th at Terang. He showed some fair form in 2020 over hurdles and has been running well enough on the flat this year so a good showing wouldn't surprise. St Arnicca is 1/1 over hurdles having won over course and distance last July. That race wasn't a strong maiden though and his flat form this year has not been good. His hurdle trial was better and he could be the main danger. I thought Annunciate's jumping in his first trial last season was superb and I fancied him to win on his debut, but he bumped into Wil John who ended up being the best hurdler we saw last year. He duly won on his next hurdle start, but did disappoint on his first start in a handicap. I think he's better than that and he's been running well on the flat building up to a return to hurdles. He maps to get an easy lead so hopefully he can dictate from the front and put his superb jumping to good effect.

Annunciate 2pts @ 7/5 with Bet365

Race 3

San Remo and American In Paris certainly have claims here on their first chase starts of the season, but I think the 1st and 2nd from last week's chase could be the two to focus on and I think Britannicus can reverse form with Rexmont. Rexmont was given a cracking ride from the front to see off Britannicus, but this weeks race is over another 250m and if it had been that far last week then I think Britannicus would have won. Rexmont also has gone up the handicap slightly so Britannicus gets more weight again this week as well which will also aide his cause. Price wise I wouldn't want to go too much shorter, but I do think he's the most likely winner.

Britannicus 1pt @ 7/5 with Bet365, Betfair and Paddy Power

[Road to the Cheltenham Festival Hunter Chase 2022]

Final post on this thread for another year is my review of the race.

The 2022 Cheltenham Hunters Chase was a punishing event given only 6 horses got round and all but one of those who failed to compete ended up pulling up. Given we were racing on good to soft ground I was amazed so few got round, but I think it helped strengthen the pre-race view that there wasn't much strength in depth in the contest and some of those who appeared to have a chance were very disappointing. 

 

I don't think you will hear too many arguments against the case that the best horse finished 2nd. Winged Leader put in a superb performance near the head of affairs and if it wasn't for Jamie Codd on Mighty Stowaway he would have won. They got into a battle after 3 out and although Winged Leader won that one with time to spare it meant he didn't have quite enough in the tank to repel the fast finishing Billaway. He has been entered at Aintree and I can really see him taking to that test should he go there, but if he doesn't it isn't hard to think he will turn up back here in a year's time with a leading chance. 

 

Apart from Aintree last year I'm not sure I have ever seen Billaway travel or jump so badly. I know his jumping isn't always foot perfect and he can hit a flat spot, but he barely travelled on the bridle at all and put in some horrific jumping errors. Fair play to the horse for keeping going under pressure though and I can't believe he only touched 21 in running because until the final half furlong he didn't look like he was going to win at all. You can't say it wasn't a deserved success given the last two year's, but you have to wonder if he will be good enough to follow up next year.

 

I was surprised by Mighty Stowaway's 3^rd as connections didn't seem to be expecting a great deal, but turning for home he looked like he would put up a serious challenge to the winner before dropping away. It was a personal best hunter chase effort, but he's 11 now and he's unlikely to be improving.

 

Dubai Quest landed the e/w money for us in 4^th and it's a shame the race wasn't on Wednesday as he would have a much better chance on soft ground. He just found things happening a bit too quickly for him and Gina was always having to niggle at him to keep him in contention. What was pleasing to see though was he jumped so much better than he did at Wetherby. He was the best of the British runners and he should have more improvement to come being only 9. I can see him being a player next year especially if the rain came.

 

Senor Lombardy ran a hell of a race to finish just behind him in 5th. I hope he hasn't left his season behind here, and I've seen plenty of beaten horses regress after Cheltenham, as he more than backed up my thoughts that he was a hunter chase winner in waiting. I wonder if connections might consider Stratford with him now as that would look a good target for him.

 

Pont Aven was a long way behind him in 6th, but he never looked like a possible winner. He did at least get round, but my thoughts that this test was unsuitable for him was borne out in the race. He's been entered at Aintree and although that would suit him much better his jumping would be a concern for me.

 

Now to look at those who didn't finish and we have to start with Bob And Co. This time he departed way too early to even guess as to where he would have finished, but it was so frustrating. On both ITV and RTV pictures his fall was obscured, but it looks like he just sprawled on landing which is the first time he's made a mistake like that. It looks like he could be off to Aintree next although again whilst it looks like a suitable test for him you would have to worry about his jumping.

 

Cousin Pascal tried to lead and couldn't and then after hitting the 7^th he continued to struggle badly. On the face of it you wouldn't fancy him for Aintree on the back of this effort, but as we know he has bounced back from poor runs in the past although his jockey could have probably pulled him up earlier with Aintree in mind.

 

Premier Magic and Fumet D'oudairies both ran really poorly and I think they just found it all happening much too quick for them. Part of that was because Don Bersy after actually consenting to run he pulled his way too the front and set a fast gallop which seemed to get plenty of these out of their comfort zones. Overworkdunderpaid was certainly one of those as well although the bad stumble at the 1^st didn't help his chance at all. The ground had dried up too much for him though and he would have done so much better if the race had been on Wednesday. I'd actually consider running him in the 4m race on hunter chase night.

 

The only other one to mention is Lord Schnitzel who travelled really well despite making the odd mistake, but he just didn't stay. His trainer must be wishing he had kept him for Aintree and I can only think he now thinks that race will come too soon as he hasn't even been entered. My guess is next season he will have his season centred around Aintree and he wont even go to Cheltenham.

[Racing chat -Tuesday 22nd March]

Excuse the lack of puntuation in places as I had to type it out on my Ipad, but here is my preview for the last race at Exeter this afternoon

 

Park Hill Dancer had black of the glade 7l behind him when he won at barbury in December and it was probably a decent race given he has won since and the 2nd was a well backed favourite. He might have been a slightly fortunate winner thought James King on the 2nd mistook the winning post.

Hilltown was hugely impressive when winning at Larkhill last month and really quickened away in some style. Hard to know what he beat, and the 2nd was only 3rd at the weekend, but the time was 13 seconds quicker than the 2nd division and he won by 25l.

Black of the glade was very impressive 9 days ago and he certainly looked like he had come on for that opening run but then clearly the winner could progress as well.

My little Toni is the only one of these to have run over fences and he looked booked for 2nd at Larkhill when the leader came to grief at 3 out which left him on his own. To me there looks to be better horses in this.

In Exell and gingerbred finished 2nd and 3rd at Great Trethew last month and I certainly think the former can uphold form. The penny dropped late on and he was very close on actually getting up to win. I have a feeling though that he might need a strong test and I can see them going a crawl and it turning into a sprint which is unlikely to suit.

Park Hill Dancer might well win but he’s priced on his trainer and for me Hilltown looks the value as he was very impressive on debut showing a great turn of foot to score.

 

Hilltown 1pt @ 4/1 with everyone

[Racing Chat - Friday 18th March (Cheltenham Day 4)]

Fakenham hunter chase preview

 

I am not surprised at all to see Not That Fuisse become favourite over Actival. I thought he ran really well in his first hunter chase at Ludlow when staying on well to finish 3^rd behind Hogans Height. He came from behind and I think they rode him to get the trip which given the way he finished his race off wasn't an issue in the end. Last time at Ludlow he was just creeping into contention when unfortunately a horse fell right in front of him and he had nowhere to go. Pont Aven won very easily in the end so I doubt he would have won, but I like to think he would have at least finished 2nd. He is at his best on decent ground and whilst the rain on Wednesday wouldn't have helped, Fakenham rarely gets testing and two drying days since then should mean the ground will be fine and it was soft when he was 3^rd at Ludlow anyway. I can only see him getting shorter in the betting and he looks to have an excellent chance.

 

When Actival ran ahead of Southwell last week I wrote that his pointing form so far this season left him with a lot to find with the other leading fancies in the race. It was probably a personal best so far this season when finishing 2nd, but that race fell apart big time. Global Racing went at the first and Salvatore clearly didn't run his race. The fact that serial loser Deau Vivant ended up winning the race says a lot for me about the form going forward. I certainly would have backed Not That Fuisse to have won that Southwell contest and with Amy being by far the worse jockey out of the 3 leading contenders I think he will need something to happen at least to Not That Fuisse and probably Peacocks Secret as well if he is going to win.

 

Peacocks Secret is a course and distance winner which is always a big plus round here after he won here last March. That race fell apart a bit as well, but he followed that up with a very good 3^rd at Cheltenham. The 3^rd at Duncombe Park on his seasonal debut was a fair effort and I thought he ran well enough at Leicester last time with 2 good horses in front of him. He handles any ground so that doesn't matter and he is likely to make the running under his very good jockey. I think he is certainly capable of beating Actival and if something happens to the favourite he can take advantage.

 

I'm really confident about the chances of Not That Fuisse here as I think he is currently running to a higher level of form than Actival. Given I don't fancy Actival at all I thought it was worth having a saver on Peacocks Secret as he is also over priced and he could well get an time of things out in front. Dale is very good at judging the pace so that does make him dangerous. If Actival wins then I have either got very unlucky or I have got the race badly wrong!

 

Not That Fuisse 4pts @ Evs with Bet365, William Hill, BetVictor and Betfred (take up to 8/11)
Peacock Secret 1pt @ 5/1 with most firms (take up to 3/1)

[Road to the Cheltenham Festival Hunter Chase 2022]

I am not surprised at all to see Not That Fuisse become favourite over Actival. I thought he ran really well in his first hunter chase at Ludlow when staying on well to finish 3^rd behind Hogans Height. He came from behind and I think they rode him to get the trip which given the way he finished his race off wasn't an issue in the end. Last time at Ludlow he was just creeping into contention when unfortunately a horse fell right in front of him and he had nowhere to go. Pont Aven won very easily in the end so I doubt he would have won, but I like to think he would have at least finished 2nd. He is at his best on decent ground and whilst the rain on Wednesday wouldn't have helped, Fakenham rarely gets testing and two drying days since then should mean the ground will be fine and it was soft when he was 3^rd at Ludlow anyway. I can only see him getting shorter in the betting and he looks to have an excellent chance.

 

When Actival ran ahead of Southwell last week I wrote that his pointing form so far this season left him with a lot to find with the other leading fancies in the race. It was probably a personal best so far this season when finishing 2nd, but that race fell apart big time. Global Racing went at the first and Salvatore clearly didn't run his race. The fact that serial loser Deau Vivant ended up winning the race says a lot for me about the form going forward. I certainly would have backed Not That Fuisse to have won that Southwell contest and with Amy being by far the worse jockey out of the 3 leading contenders I think he will need something to happen at least to Not That Fuisse and probably Peacocks Secret as well if he is going to win.

 

Peacocks Secret is a course and distance winner which is always a big plus round here after he won here last March. That race fell apart a bit as well, but he followed that up with a very good 3^rd at Cheltenham. The 3^rd at Duncombe Park on his seasonal debut was a fair effort and I thought he ran well enough at Leicester last time with 2 good horses in front of him. He handles any ground so that doesn't matter and he is likely to make the running under his very good jockey. I think he is certainly capable of beating Actival and if something happens to the favourite he can take advantage.

 

I'm really confident about the chances of Not That Fuisse here as I think he is currently running to a higher level of form than Actival. Given I don't fancy Actival at all I thought it was worth having a saver on Peacocks Secret as he is also over priced and he could well get an time of things out in front. Dale is very good at judging the pace so that does make him dangerous. If Actival wins then I have either got very unlucky or I have got the race badly wrong!

 

Not That Fuisse 4pts @ Evs with Bet365, William Hill, BetVictor and Betfred (take up to 8/11)
Peacock Secret 1pt @ 5/1 with most firms (take up to 3/1)

[Australian Jumps season 2022]

A good start to the season with Rexmont winning and a big sp in the end as well.

[Australian Jumps season 2022]

Great to have the jumps action back in Australia and I am looking forward to following it all the way through to the end of August once again. Annoyingly though it starts on Gold Cup day at Terang and that means I just don't have the time to go through the form for all the races. The maiden hurdle which starts the card sees most of them making their hurdles debuts and I need to watch all the various trials which I just don't have the time to do. The horse with the best flat form is favourite and that is Into Rio. I did watch his trial and he was a bit novicey at some of the flights, but he potted around at the back so I'm not sure we learnt a great deal. He might well win, but without watching any of the others in trials I don't want to commit to anything.

In Race 2 the BM 120 Hurdle it should go the way of Heberite who won on his hurdles debut at Ballarat in August. He comes from the right yard and they have booked Pateman for the ride. He might well progress into a good jumper this season although he's odds on here so again it is no bet.

Race 3 is the steeplechase on the card and I will be having a bet here. My Kings Counsel and Lucques were 1st and 2nd in this race last year and I did put up Lucques a couple of times later in the season as he ran some promising races, but he flattered to deceive so I'm leaving him alone. This year's running looks stronger as well. Britannicus is favourite on his 2nd start over fences and I can see why. He has some useful hurdles form and in his one steeplechase run to date he was lame at the end of the race so it would explain his disappointing effort. I watched his recent trail and he jumped pretty well with the main danger when slipping up on one of the turns. He ran well on the flat prior to that trial as well. I am however going to go with Rexmont. He was 3rd in the previous race on this card last year and he soon went over fences and did really well in the early part of the season including winning at Pakenham on his first start over them. He beat Lucques in a recent trial and the fact the ground has dried out to a Soft 5 will be a big help to his chances. I think at 100/30 he offers some value against the favourite.

Rexmont 1pt @ 100/30 with Skybet, William Hill, Ladbrokes and Coral

[Road to the Cheltenham Festival Hunter Chase 2022]

Verdict - I think Bob And Co has to be the bet. I was of the belief last year that he was the horse that should have been favourite in the race and I still think he looks the classiest horse in the contest. Obviously he has to get round safely, but it was a slightly unfortunate unseat last year so I am confident he will do so. With Maxwell riding much better this season I'm not so worried about him being on top. Clearly he is no James King or Gina Andrews, but if the horse is good enough then he can get the job done. At the prices and the enhanced place terms he looks a cracking e/w bet. I want some coverage on Dubai Quest because I think he is the most progressive horse in the race. Yes I am concerned about his jumping and that might stop him from winning, but a stronger gallop might actually help on that front and he has a serious engine. Overworkdunderpaid looks the best of those at big odds. The way the race was run at Haydock didn't suit him at all as he is all about stamina. The rain on Wednesday was exactly what he wanted as he is at his best in testing conditions and whilst it will dry out a bit by race time it should still be ideal for him. He looks an improved horse this season based on his pointing and Haydock runs. Clearly Billaway is going to be a leading contender again, but I can let him win at the price he is as he's way too short for me. If Pont Aven stays then he might well be involved in the finish, but for me that's a fairly big if and I'm not sure Winged Leader can uphold the Thurles form with Billaway let alone win.

 

Bob And Co 2pts e/w @ 7/1 with Paddy Power, Betfair, BetVictor and Betfred all to 4 places. Bet365 are 13/2 to 5 places (take up to 5/1 e/w and then 2.5pts win up to 7/2)

Dubai Quest 1pt e/w @ 14/1 with Paddy Power, Betfair, BetVictor and Betfred all to 4 places. Ladbrokes and Coral are 11/1 for 5 places (take up to 8/1)

Overworkdunderpaid 1pt e/w @ 33/1 with Coral and Ladbrokes to 5 places and Betfred to 4 places (take up to 16/1)

 

Fakenham preview

 

I am not surprised at all to see Not That Fuisse become favourite over Actival. I thought he ran really well in his first hunter chase at Ludlow when staying on well to finish 3^rd behind Hogans Height. He came from behind and I think they rode him to get the trip which given the way he finished his race off wasn't an issue in the end. Last time at Ludlow he was just creeping into contention when unfortunately a horse fell right in front of him and he had nowhere to go. Pont Aven won very easily in the end so I doubt he would have won, but I like to think he would have at least finished 2nd. He is at his best on decent ground and whilst the rain on Wednesday wouldn't have helped, Fakenham rarely gets testing and two drying days since then should mean the ground will be fine and it was soft when he was 3^rd at Ludlow anyway. I can only see him getting shorter in the betting and he looks to have an excellent chance.

 

When Actival ran ahead of Southwell last week I wrote that his pointing form so far this season left him with a lot to find with the other leading fancies in the race. It was probably a personal best so far this season when finishing 2nd, but that race fell apart big time. Global Racing went at the first and Salvatore clearly didn't run his race. The fact that serial loser Deau Vivant ended up winning the race says a lot for me about the form going forward. I certainly would have backed Not That Fuisse to have won that Southwell contest and with Amy being by far the worse jockey out of the 3 leading contenders I think he will need something to happen at least to Not That Fuisse and probably Peacocks Secret as well if he is going to win.

 

Peacocks Secret is a course and distance winner which is always a big plus round here after he won here last March. That race fell apart a bit as well, but he followed that up with a very good 3^rd at Cheltenham. The 3^rd at Duncombe Park on his seasonal debut was a fair effort and I thought he ran well enough at Leicester last time with 2 good horses in front of him. He handles any ground so that doesn't matter and he is likely to make the running under his very good jockey. I think he is certainly capable of beating Actival and if something happens to the favourite he can take advantage.

 

I'm really confident about the chances of Not That Fuisse here as I think he is currently running to a higher level of form than Actival. Given I don't fancy Actival at all I thought it was worth having a saver on Peacocks Secret as he is also over priced and he could well get an time of things out in front. Dale is very good at judging the pace so that does make him dangerous. If Actival wins then I have either got very unlucky or I have got the race badly wrong!

 

Not That Fuisse 4pts @ Evs with Bet365, William Hill, BetVictor and Betfred (take up to 8/11)
Peacock Secret 1pt @ 5/1 with most firms (take up to 3/1)

[Racing Chat- Monday 14th March.]

Onto Stratford and we have the biggest field of the season yet most of them look rather poor. If Tangoed could repeat his 2019 form which included a good 3^rd over course and distance he wouldn't be out of this, but the only problem is he has mainly been out of form since then. Streets Of London's 3^rd at Fakenham last year was also in a poor contest although his 2^nd last time in a point would give him a squeak of hitting the frame.

 

Sparkleandshine clearly isn't staying in points so the drop down in trip is going to suit and he was 2^nd over slightly shorter here in June off a mark of 112. The problem is he ran poorly off the same mark a month later. I'm guessing he will try and make the running and Izzie Marshall did do that at Warwick one a stablemate in January, but chances are he isn't going to get an easy lead.

 

Diable De Sivola got up to a mark of 136 yet the only time he has won a race is when he made a winning debut in a bumper. He ran OK off 112 when 3^rd at Musselburgh on New Years Day and he was 3^rd in a point at Alnwick last month. It could be he's just one paced which is why he doesn't win, but it certainly looks to me like this test will be too sharp for him based on how he runs.

 

As a reminder this is what I said about Drakes Well ahead of his Leicester run. Fred Hustby trained him when he first came over from Ireland and bolted up on his debut at Larkhill over 2m4f in December 2018. His other two runs that season were decent efforts but 2020 wasn't quite as good and it looked like he wasn't really staying 3m. He then went under rules last year for David Bridgewater and showed some solid form whilst being rated between 115 and 119. He only won once at Fontwell last May over hurdles and finished 2nd both starts over fences. He went back to Fred's ahead of this season and was a well beaten 5th in a Mixed Open at Larkhill last month. He made a few mistakes that day and he's going to have to come on a fair bit from that effort to win this. What I will say though is his rules form gives him a chance. I thought he ran well at Leicester to finish 3^rd in a race which is certainly no worse than this. The better ground and slighter shorter trip should help him although he has unseated since at Didmarton last weekend when only reaching the 3rd. He will probably need to jump better round here than he has the last twice. He has been the one for money this morning.

 

We then come to the 2 horses who both ran in the Welsh Foxhunters at Ffos Las, Jaunty Flyer, who was 2nd and Envoye Special, who was 4th. Jaunty Flyer was possibly a bit unlucky not to win as he pecked on landing after jumping the last. That was his first start since July 2019 so there has to be a concern if he will back it up or not. Also the winner didn't exactly do anything for the form at Leicester on his next start.

 

Turning for home at Ffos Las it looked like Envoye Special would win, but for some reason given the conditions James King gave him an aggressive ride. He was on a suspect stayer so it seemed an odd move and he faded very badly on the run-in. I think he can reverse the form under a very different set of circumstances. He actually ran in this race last year when 4th, but the ground was soft then as well and since then he's got some very strong form even when getting beaten. I can see him sitting just behind the pace here and then pouncing in the home straight. The ground should be ideal as it should dry out even more come race time and this really does look like a good opportunity for him to land a first hunter chase. 

 

Envoye Special 2pts @ 9/4 with most bookies (take up to 6/4)

[Road to the Cheltenham Festival Hunter Chase 2022]

23 horses are still in the Cheltenham Hunters Chase at the 6 day stage and here are my thoughts on all the runners. I am going to hold off on putting any bets up at the moment as I think it is worth waiting until after the final decs as there will be extra places on offer for e/w bets. 

 

Back Bar - Managed to beat Cousin Pascal in a point at Charing on his seasonal return which on the face of it is obviously a strong piece of form, but Cousin Pascal didn't give his true running that day. He followed that up by pulling up on his next start at Ampton and then was 2^nd at Milborne St Andrew. He did manage to win a hunter chase at Leicester last time, but it wasn't a strong affair especially in the context of this race and it is hard to see him being anywhere near good enough.

 

Billaway - Will be a big surprise if he doesn't go off favourite for the 3^rd year running, but will he finish 2^nd for the 3^rd year running? He was a bit unfortunate to bump into Porlock Bay last year because the pair finished well clear of the rest and after not really enjoying Aintree he then bounced back to push Bob and Co all the way to the line at Punchestown. This season he had an early season setback and we didn't see him until January where his trainer said he would need the run and he certainly ran like it finishing a 12L 2^nd to Winged Leader. He was much better last time at Naas though when won with ease jumping well apart from one error. He wore cheekpieces for the first time and he did seem to travel much better in them. The big problem is he essentially beat little as his stablemate Good Bye Sam is still a maiden and was beaten in a very weak Maiden Hunters' Chase last week at long odds on. In recent years you have wanted to be 10 or 11 to win this race and he is now 10. A repeat of last year's run might well be good enough, but does he really deserve to be such a short priced favourite given Bob And Co beat him at Punchestown and he hasn't actually achieved a great deal in either of his runs this season? I don't think so personally and whilst I can obviously see him being good enough to win, I just couldn't be backing him at the price he is

 

Bob And Co - David Maxwell wasn't able to ride in this race last year and he ended up unseating Sean Bowen at 3 out when he was still going very well. Obviously it is impossible to know where he would have finished, but I think he would have been in the first 3 given how he travelled and obviously the fact he won at Punchestown proves he has the ability to win this. If you were following my hunter chase previews last season then you will know that opposing David Maxwell horses was a great way to make money as he was riding poorly. He got injured in a fall which meant he didn't ride for a while and then Covid rules stopped him from riding. To start with he didn't look fit enough and then his decision making was shocking and he was getting beaten on horses that really should have been winning. Indeed he only rode 3 winners one of which was Bob And Co beating trees at Hexham, one was Dolphin Square winning a match at Kelso and the other was Bob And Co at Punchestown. This current jumps season though he has been riding as well as he ever has and he might not get a better chance of winning this race than he will this year. I know Bob And Co got beat at Haydock, but they went a crawl in very bad ground and Cousin Pascal was just able to do the him and the 3^rd for speed. Paul Nicholls said before and after the race that he was being trained to peak for Cheltenham and he would come on for the run at Haydock. I also think that the reason Maxwell didn't make it more of a stamina test was because he knew the horse needed the run and I reckon Paul would have told him to mind him in the bad ground so he didn't leave his race behind. If there is one negative about him then his jumping isn't always foot perfect, as he showed a year ago, but otherwise I don't see how he wont be involved in the finish.

 

Cousin Pascal - A slightly surprising runner as all the vibes were he was going to go to Aintree to try and hold onto his crown there. Connections though have decided to come here first and I don't really blame them for having a go given they have already won at Aintree they may as well try and win this. As his trainer said in an article last week the owner might never get a horse good enough to go to Cheltenham again. He has had two disappointing runs since coming to this country one was at Alnwick last season and the other at Charing this season when he was only 2^nd to Back Bar. His trainer has mentioned that he travels badly and that is why he disappointed on those occasions and you would have that in the back of your mind here as it wouldn't be a really close journey for him. After Charing he was 2^nd to Wagner at Hereford in a race which has worked out very well given Wagner won at Wincanton, albeit in fortunate circumstances and the 3^rd has also won since. His trainer thought he idled that day and the reason he got beat was because Marcle Ridge wasn't able to take him further into the race. I'm not really buying that though because he didn't look to me as if he idled at Aintree. Joe also said he idled at Haydock, but Bob And Co and Overworkdunderpaid seemed to close up on him without being ridden all that hard. He certainly had fitness on his side over Bob And Co and I think the form will be reversed especially over a much stiffer stamina test. As I said above they went a crawl and that played into James Kings hands as he had more speed than the others. If they had made it more of a stamina test I reckon you might have got a different result and I'm not sure 3m2f round Cheltenham run in a race likely to be run at a strong pace is going to play to his strengths. What he does have on his side is one of the best jockey's in the race and he's clearly a very good horse so if he did happen to stay then he probably won't be far away.

 

Desire De Joie - Won a very weak Mens Open at Charing on his debut for new connections, but did manage to follow that up with a superb performance at Doncaster when just getting caught by Dolphin Square late on. He beat Le Breuil by further than Dubai Quest did at Wetherby so on the Doncaster run you have to give him some sort of chance, but that effort does stick out like a sore thumb compared to the rest of his form and I would be a bit surprised if he was capable of reaching the frame.

 

Don Bersy - In 2020 he refused to race in a point and then at Ludlow. He then went back pointing and did win on his first start, but then he was reluctant to race and downed tools at the 2nd. He's not been seen this season and even if he did decide to go with the others I couldn't fancy him at all.

 

Dubai Quest - Won 7 on the bounce in points and hunter chases after falling at Larkhill on his first start over here for the Ellis'. He is a very progressive horse and clearly you have to have something about you to win 7 straight. He's had two starts this season to get him prepped for this. I was at Chaddesley Corbett over Christmas to see him win a Ladies Open and it was a very strong contest and will probably be the hottest Ladies Open we see all season. He beat Tango De Juilley that day and some people reckon if you swapped the jockeys around you would have had a different result and it's certainly true that Gina was more vigorous in the finish than the inexperienced jockey on the 2nd, but the 2^nd had set a strong gallop and I'm not sure he would have had too much left anyway. Whichever side of the fence you are on it was still a very good return. He then went to Wetherby where he again showed off the engine he has by winning well from Le Breuil. Obviously you would have like that horse to have done better at Doncaster next time to frank the form, but he looked to have plenty in hand at the finish. I think he has a really good chance of giving Gina a first win in the race, but I have one big issue and that is his jumping. When he won at Fakenham last season he made a really bad mistake which caused Gina's sister Bridget to lose her irons. He wasn't completely foot perfect at Chaddesley and although he never looked like falling at Wetherby I thought his jumping left a lot to be desired at times. I'd be amazed if he gets round Cheltenham without making errors so then it boils down to how much those mistakes harm his chances. I think he's good enough to win, but if he was mine I would have given him more experience over rules fences in preparation for this and I just wonder if his jumping will stop him from winning.

 

Fumet D'Oudaires - Both the Ellis runners are around the same price, but for me this horse is very much the second string. Don't get me wrong he has been one of the best buys in a long time given they paid just £800 for him and he's won 8 out of 10 starts including 2 hunter chases at Leicester and Cheltenham. The Cheltenham win came over 2m at the hunter chase night and he then went to Stratford for the John Corbet Cup where he was beaten nearly 3L by Vaucelet. My feeling was he was outstayed that night and if you have enough pace to win over 2m round here I also have doubts about having enough stamina to win this. He's had a couple of runs at Horseheath this season and won both although he made hard work of beating one other finisher last time. I certainly don't blame connections for having a go at this contest, but he could have a better chance in future years as he might stay better then.

 

It Came To Pass - The impressive 2020 winner was a well beaten 7^th last year although he did have a bit of a rushed preparation so you can understand why he wasn't at the same level. He was a well beaten 5^th behind Bob And Co at Punchestown after that. This season he's just been kept pointing having had 4 starts winning his penultimate one. He was well beaten though when falling last time and I'd be slightly surprised if he was able to beat last year's 7^th let alone regain his crown.

 

Lord Schnitzel - He ran at the Festival in 2020 in the handicap novices' chase which doesn't exist anymore and he didn't jump well when pulling up. What he has been though is in good form since going pointing this season. He was 2^nd in his first point, but then won 3 before landing a Maiden Hunter Chase in very easy style at Limerick over Christmas. He was then surprisingly beaten in a point at the start of February at 1/2 before winning at the end of the month at 1/8. We don't know if he is going to stay and this will easily be the toughest race he has been in for some time. The other concern is the ground as his best form has been on testing ground. His trainer mentioned he might go for Aintree rather than Cheltenham and that would look to be the better option for me.

 

Mighty Stowaway - Was 6^th in this last year and then 10^th at Aintree. This season he dead heated with Winged Leader on his seasonal return in November, but I don't think he's shown as much progression as that horse since then. He's been kept busy as well as he's had 5 more starts. He did manage to win a couple, but last time he was very disappointing when pulling up. He's not really looked good enough to be capable of winning this and nothing he has done this season has changed my mind on that front.

 

Monbeg Chit Chat - The bare form of his two wins in points this season is nothing to write home about at all. The winning time at Alnwick last time was good, but the 2^nd has been stuffed twice since and was well behind Overworkdunderpaid the time before. On the plus side he won over course and distance on hunter chase night last season and he then went on to finish a very respectable 3^rd in the Stratford Foxhunters. He got better as the season went on last year so there is hope that he will improve again here. It's hard to see him being good enough to win, but he does look capable of a very respectable effort.

 

Overworkdunderpaid - On ratings he has little chance in this given the highest mark he won off when under rules before was 113, but based on his pointing and hunter chase run at Haydock he looks an improved horse. He unseated on his first start at Charing, but then was really impressive at Alnwick in December clocking a very fast time and a high pace rating in point to point form book. Given then fact he was carrying 12-10 it was even more impressive that the time was so good. He won at the same venue in January again doing it well. I've no idea why his jockey didn't make it more of a stamina test at Haydock because he clearly stays very well and Cousin Pascal did him for pace whilst Bob And Co just pipped him on the line for 2nd. 3m2f looks much more suitable especially given it is likely to be a decent pace. Kelly Morgan trained him in points, but he has gone back to Laura for hunter chases and the yard have obviously been doing very well in recent weeks. The one issue with him is he does seem to be at his best on testing ground and it doesn't look like he is going to get that on Friday. Even so for me he makes the most appeal of those at big prices.

 

Point The Way - Won a couple of hunter chases at Perth and Kelso last season although they weren't exactly strong affairs. He was a 20L 4^th to Overworkdunderpaid on his seasonal return, but he has won both races since including over 3m4f at Charm Park last weekend. He can probably run well enough, but he looks unlikely to have the class to trouble the judge here.

 

Pont Aven - Connections paid £30k for him last year after he left Willie Mullins and after falling on his seasonal debut he was had two very comfortable success' since then. His jockey thought he would have won at Horseheath, but I thought his fall looked a bit of a tired one and I wasn't as certain as his jockey was. After that he has bolted up in an easy race at Higham and won just as easily at Ludlow in a hunter chase. Neither event was particularly strong but he couldn't have been more impressive. There are two concerns for me though. The first has to be the trip. I know he won over 3m in his younger days, but Mullins kept him to 2m4f and shorter after that so he obviously thought that was his best trip. You can't get two flatter tracks than Higham and Ludlow so this test will be totally different. Horseheath is actually more like Cheltenham so if he had stayed on his feet there it would have told us more. Speaking of staying on his feet his jumping has to be a concern as well. He often made mistakes in Ireland and he wasn't always great at Ludlow. He clearly has an engine, but will that engine see him stay 3m2f round Cheltenham? I'm not so sure myself.

 

Premier Magic - The Bradley Gibbs super-sub as he was due to miss Cheltenham and head to Aintree whilst his stablemate Highway Jewel was set to run here, but she has had a setback so plans have been reversed. He was 3^rd behind two of these in the John Corbet Cup, but I don't think he was suited by the slow pace round a sharp track and this test ought to be more suitable. I do think he has also improved this season and he beat Porlock Bay on his seasonal return at Chaddesley Corbett over Christmas. Now I suspect Premier Magic might have been nearer peak fitness, but his trainer did say after the race that he thought he had improved since last season. He ran at Milborne St Andrew last time and had a very easy success. The main concern is probably the fact that he wasn't originally going to be running in the race, but that doesn't mean he isn't capable of a big run and I certainly think he will do the best of the John Corbett Cup trio.

 

Rewritetherules - Has shown very little in two starts for his new connections having been a useful enough horse in Ireland. Impossible to fancy.

 

Senor Lombardy - Was trained by Brian Harding last season, but is now running in his wife's name Kelly. The 2^nd to The Galloping Bear at Carlisle last March is obviously looking a very strong piece of form although I wouldn't want to be taking that at face value as The Galloping Bear has improved since then. This year he's been kept pointing and was impressive in his two wins at Alnwick whilst finishing 2^nd at 4/9 in between them. He is certainly capable of winning a hunter chase, but I think this is more about giving connections a day and anything better than mid-division would be a very good effort.

 

Winged Leader - Given he is only 8 he has had a lot of racing and has already run in 14 hunter chases. He was 2^nd in the 2019 John Corbett Cup and won his first hunter chase 2 years ago at Down Royal. He then couldn't get his head in front under rules. He was behind Billaway three times last season and then fell at Thurles when in with a winning chance at the last. There were a couple of 2nds before he finally won again at Tramore in April. He followed that up with a win at Listowel in June. He's found winning points easier and he's 9 from 15 there which includes a dead heat with Mighty Stowaway on his seasonal return. His only other run this season was the 12L victory over Billaway at Thurles which he fully deserved on the day, but as we know the 2^nd wasn't fully fit. The big question is has he really improved enough to be a better horse than Billway and thus have a chance of winning this, or was it just a case of he benefitted by a weakened rival the last day because the rest of his form wouldn't be good enough to win this. My feeling is the latter and as much as I could understand if you do think the former and thus think he is value to beat him again, for me I have to take him on.

 

Zamparelli - Won a Ludlow hunter chase last season, but after a promising enough effort on his return at Larkhill he was well beaten back at Ludlow the next time. He was 2^nd to Southfield Theatre last time back at Larkhill which was a step back in the right direction, but is easily opposed in a race like this.

[Non-League Predictions > 12th March]

I'm just having an awful season match betting wise. Not given up hope of turning a profit yet, but its been one of the toughest season's I have had.

[Non-League Predictions > 12th March]

Ebbsfleet v Oxford City

Ross Jenkins was confirmed as the new manager in the week at Oxford which is well deserved given how well he has done since taking over as caretaker. In 9 games he's won 6, drawn 1 and lost 2. The two defeats were against the top 2 sides in the league, Dorking and Maidstone, so no disgrace in that. Ebbsfleet have won their last two, but this will be tougher. Obviously with home advantage they should be favourites, but Oxford City are very much over priced for this game and are well worth backing.

 

Tonbridge Angels v Braintree

Braintree continue to perform much better than their league position and it was no surprise that their manager got manager of the month for last month. They lost 1-0 at Maidstone on Tuesday night, but they were a bit unlucky to get anything at the team 2^nd in the table. Granted Tonbridge had their keeper sent off after 10 minutes against Oxford last week, but they were still well beaten 5-0. I'd make Tonbridge slight favourites given home advantage, but for me Braintree are playing better at the moment and they too big a price.

 

Blyth Spartans v Chester

God knows why Chester are odds on for this. They have managed just one win in their last 10 games and have lost 5 on the bounce. In fairness Blyth aren't in great form either having lost 6 of their last 7 games, but my point is both teams are pretty bad and therefore to have the away side at odds on is way off on the price front. Chester have lost 11 of their 14 away games in the league and have won just one of them whilst Blyth are much better at home than they are away. I'm more than happy to get involved in the home side at 5/2.

 

Chorley v Southport

I mentioned the other week that Chorley seem to have lost their form at the moment and Darlington duly beat them 3-0 when I took them on. That was 3 games ago and since then they beat Chester and then lost to Spennymoor on Tuesday night. Granted Southport have only won once in their last 5, but that was against Hereford and they have only lost once in that spell. Last Saturday they got a very creditable draw against Brackley and they look capable of getting 3 points here.

 

Bamber Bridge v Grantham (Northern Premier)

League position wise you wouldn't want to back Grantham given they are bottom and 10 points from safety. As I highlighted last Saturday though Bamber Bridge are in awful form at the moment and they lost again on Tuesday night. Grantham are doing their best to survive as they have only lost once in their last 6 and have won 2 of their last 3 including against Morpeth on Tuesday night. No doubt in my mind who is playing better at the moment and Grantham look a good bet.

 

Oxford City 1pt @ 7/2 with Paddy Power and Betfair (Hills are 19/5 and take up to 9/4)

Braintree 2pts @ 23/10 with Paddy Power, Betfair and BetVictor (Hills are 13/5 and take up to 6/4)

Blyth Spartans 1pt @ 5/2 with William Hill Paddy Power and Betfair (Bet365 are 14/5 and take up to 6/4)

Southport 1pt @ 13/5 with Bet365 and William Hill (take up to 2/1)

Grantham 2pts @ 9/4 with William Hill and Bet365 (Betfair and Paddys are 13/5 but given the gap I will settle at 9/4 take up to 6/4)

[Racing Chat - Wednesday 9th March]

After a few years of having some good horses win the Catterick race this afternoon, including Cousin Pascal last year, we are back to this being one of the poorest races of the season. Indeed I will be a tad surprise if we see worse than this quality wise for the rest of the year.

 

Having said all that I actually would love to see Absainte get her head in front under rules and surely she will never get a better chance to. Since going to current connections she has run in 7 points and won 4 of them. She didn't win either of the ones she ran in last year, but the 2^nd to Royal Chant is decent enough form and she was just a bit disappointing on her final start of the season. Interestingly on her seasonal debut for current connections she has won twice and then was running a stormer at Musselburgh last year when coming down at the last. She would have finished 2^nd to Captain Buck's that afternoon and that is strong form in the context of this race. 2 years ago she finished a 25L 2^nd in this race to Wishing And Hoping and whilst normally being stuffed 25L wouldn't be a good thing, Wishing And Hoping would be long odds on to win this and she beat the rest of her rivals that day with ease. I never thought she would be favourite for a hunter chase, but she has every right to be on her best form.

 

We have another Syd Hosie horse as he seems to be entering his horses all over the place. This time we have Lucky Lara who has had 2 starts this season. In January she finished 4^th at Taunton on her first start over fences off a mark of 105. She got an RPR off 105 on that run as well, but it was over 2m5f and she ran like she didn't stay and she has often weakened at the end of her races. She then ran at Wincanton last month and was a well beaten 8^th back over hurdles. Given she finishes her races off weakly it could be she has a wind issue and the tongue-tie does go on for the first time. Given the small field this might not be that much of a stamina test which should help her as well. She didn't jump great at Taunton though and that would be a worry again here.

 

Clancypantz is coming a long way for this from South Wales which is interesting, but on form she is pretty hard to fancy. She was 0-16 under Rules in Ireland and was then only 4^th in a maiden at Larkhill on her debut for new connections. She got a very low point rating on the back of that and it came just 10 days ago. The Welsh aren't afraid of backing one so if she does get well backed then she would be of interest, but she would have to have improved a fair bit in 10 days to take this in my view.

 

The outsider of the field is Mr Pepperpot and he is also the only gelding in the race. Given his age he actually hasn't run all that much having only seen a racecourse 23 times. Pointing he has won 3 times the last of which came just before Covid hit in March 2020. He has had 4 runs in hunter chases two in 2019 and two last year and there hasn't been a great deal of promise in them although the 5^th at Wetherby last year wasn't awful albeit in a weak contest. He ran in this contest after that and was pulled up. This season he has run 4 times 3 times poorly and the other time he was beaten by a short head by My Liege in the exact same race at Friars Haugh that the two horses were 1^st and 2^nd with a short head between them in 2020! The time was good this year and if he can show that form then he's not out of this. His best form does seem to be on better ground so maybe he will run up to his best.

 

I wrote all the above last night, but this morning there has been money for Lucky Lara so she has become favourite. She might be good enough to win and I was half tempted by Mr Pepperpot but I think Absainte is the most solid option. She is proven to run well after a long layoff and if she runs to her best then she is more than good enough to win this. I don't think there is a huge amount in the price, but I do think she deserves to be favourite so there is enough value there to have a bet.

 

Absainte 1pt @ 2/1 with everyone except Bet365 (take up to 11/8)

[Non league predictions 5th February]

AFC Telford v Alfreton

I'm pretty keen on Telford here. In their last 3 games they managed a draw against Kettering and Gateshead and then were impressive in beating Curzon in midweek. They look capable of getting themselves out of the relegation battle and if they play like they have been then they can beat Alfreton here. Alfreton have only managed to beat Spennymoor in their last 7 games and haven't even managed a goal in their last 4. I would make the home side clear favourites here. 

 

Curzon Ashton v Gloucester

Curson might have been well beaten on Tuesday, but on the whole they are in good form as they were unbeaten in 5 games going into that game. They have only lost 2 games at home during the season and given Gloucester have only managed to beat Farsely and Leamington on their travels I think the home side can win. I'm slightly concerned about the draw as both sides have had a few stalemates of late, but Gloucester have managed just 5 goals in their last 10 games so if Curzon can get one it might well be enough.

 

Farsley Celtic v Spennymoor

The away side were struggling for numbers on Saturday, but still managed to draw against Gloucester mainly because we are so bad away from home. Given Farsley managed to beat Kidderminster at home last Saturday and then were unlucky to lose to Bradford on Wednesday I think they have a chance of winning again here. Spennymoor's away form has been awful as well although they did manage to beat Chester in their last game on the road, but that was their first in 10 away games. With the improvement in Farsley I think they have a better chance of winning than the bookies think.

 

Bamber Bridge v Buxton (Northern Premier)

The home side are really struggling of late as they continue to fall out of play-off contention. They have only picked up 8 points in their last 10 games and only 2 of those have come in their last 6. Buxton meanwhile sit in 2^nd in the table and after having a blip they are bang in form again and they are unbeaten in their last 6 games. They are a shade of odds on but I think that is value for an away win so they can keep the pressure on South Sheilds at the top of the table.

 

Merstham v Leatherhead (Isthmian Premier)

Leatherhead need a minor miracle to stay up, but they have certainly been improving and whilst they remain winless at home they have actually managed 4 away wins. They have been a bit unlucky to have only won once in their last 7 games, but at the same time they have only lost two of those games to Cheshunt and Hornchurch. Merstham are not in great form themselves and I don't think there is a great deal between these two sides, indeed I think you could argue that Leatherhead have been playing better. Therefore an away win looks the value play.

 

AFC Telford 2pts @ 6/4 with everyone apart from Hills who go 8/5 (take up to 11/10)

Curzon Ashton 1pt @ 5/4 with William Hill and Coral (take up to Evs)

Farsley Celtic 1pt @ 11/5 with William Hill and Coral (take up to 7/4)

Buxton 2.5pts @ 19/20 with William Hill, Bet365, Paddy Power and Betfair (take up to 8/11)

Leatherhead 1pt @ 14/5 with Paddy Power (both Hills and Betfair are bigger but will use this price in the stats and take up to 2/1)

[FA Cup Predictions > Mar 1st - 7th]

I’ve been told that Boreham Wood have only 14 fit players for tonight and 3 of them are keepers. Because of that most of the bench will be made up of unfit players so my feeling is Everton might have an easier time of it tonight than they could have done.

[Racing Chat - Wednesday 2nd March]

4.35 Musselburgh

Let's start with the race at Musselburgh first where we have a short price favourite in Rio Des Echanault. He won a poor hunter chase at Kelso last season and I said after the race that he would really have to improve to win another one as he found one of the weakest races he possibly could. The fact he was given a handicap rating of 89 after it proves how bad it was. However he does seem to have improved since then and he fully deserves to be a short price favourite for this race. He's won two races this season both at Friars Haugh. The first was a match, but the win last month had much more substance to it. The 2^nd won a point on Sunday and the 3^rd finished a close 3^rd off 115 at Carlisle on Monday. He's only 8 so there obviously is scope for improvement and to be honest if he was mine I would have been tempted to have kept him pointing and then attacked a few handicaps off his mark because he would be so well handicapped off 89. I'm sure though connections will be hoping to win the final to this series at Kelso in May which is a decent pot to be fair.

 

Ravished clearly has the best recent form in the race having finished 2^nd to Hazel Hill last January and he was 6^th in the Aintree Foxhunters. The problem is he is now 14 and he has also moved yards. His jockey also trains him and the only time he has trained horses is when he had a couple back in 2015. It's his first run of the season and if he was till with Joe O'Shea then you would give him a chance, but I'd be amazed if he is fit enough first time out at the age of 14.

 

I thought Ferocious looked like he wasn't going to finish 2^nd behind Jett at Kelso as he wasn't travelling as well as Wonderoftheworld when that one unseated. It's hard to know what he achieved there though and the 3^rd at Alnwick wasn't a bad effort so he might be capable of better. I was a bit surprised Wonderoftheworld was going better because I didn't think he would be able to beat Ferocious although there was long enough left off the race that you couldn't be fully certain what was going to happen.

 

Nine Altars was 2^nd in this race in 2020 to Virak when he flew late to not actually be that far away in the end. He was also a decent 2^nd in the final of this series at Kelso last season and in 2019. The problem is he comes here on the back of finishing last of 3 in a point back in November and the jockey isn't the best. He's 13 now and as much as he is clearly capable of running well it would be disappointing if he was able to beat the favourite. 

 

Not often you get a horse who was pretty useful on the flat end up in hunter chases, but Now Children got into the 90s on the level. He wasn't great when he went jumping though. To be fair to him he was still travelling well enough last time when he was brought down, but then we don't know if he would have stayed 3m which has to be a doubt. 

 

I just find it hard to see anything other than a win for the favourite. He looks progressive unlike the rest and whilst if he was coming her just on the back of the Kelso win then I might have been dubious he showed last time that he has clearly improved since then and is better than that bare form.

 

Rio Des Echanault 4pts @ 11/10 with William Hill (take up to 4/6)

[Road to the Cheltenham Festival Hunter Chase 2022]

1 hour ago, PBN said:

Fontwell is obviously a very sharp track. Does that provide an excuse for Jett?

Not for me it doesn't as I don't think it was the track that got him beat. Ultimately though it was job done in that he qualified for Cheltenham so at least he's got into the race. 

[Road to the Cheltenham Festival Hunter Chase 2022]

Surprisingly I have seen the entries already. There are 31 of them and no surprise that Stake Wallace isn't entered, but a surprise to see Highway Jewel and Cat Tiger among them. Back Bar

Billaway

Bob And Co

Cat Tiger

Cousin Pascal

Desire de Joie

Don Bersy

Dubai Quest

Fumet d'Oudairies

Highway Jewel

I'm Wiser Now

It Came To Pass

Its All Guesswork

Jett

Latenightpass

Lord Schnitzel

Mighty Stowaway

Monbeg Chit Chat

Moratorium

Overworkdunderpaid

Point The Way

Poli Roi

Pont Aven

Premier Magic

Rewritetherules

Senor Lombardy

Shantou Flyer

Tango de Juilley

Vaucelet

Winged Leader

Zamparelli

[Road to the Cheltenham Festival Hunter Chase 2022]

It has been confirmed that Porlock Bay is going to miss Cheltenham and hasn't been entered. He was found to have a lung condition after a scope and wont be ready for Cheltenham but should be ready for Aintree. At least we now know why he ran below par at Bangor.

[Road to the Cheltenham Festival Hunter Chase 2022]

So final update before the entries close today. Dolphin Square was cut in the betting after he won at Doncaster, but he wont be running at Cheltenham. They ended up skipping Doncaster with Jett and instead head to Fontwell for an easier task. Whilst he did qualify for Cheltenham you have to say he was rather disappointing. Shantou Flyer is clearly a good horse still and capable of performing to a high level. Whilst I'm sure Sam didn't want to give Jett too hard a race with Cheltenham in mind, but he just look very laboured in finishing 2nd. He hit the front and I thought he was going to go on and win the race, but he seemed to not really want to go through with his effort and it allowed the winner to go back in front. I had Jett on my shortlist prior to Fontwell as that Doncaster effort looked really good, but it's hard to fancy him for the race after Sunday. Meanwhile Shantou Flyer will get a Cheltenham entry as a super sub in case something happens to Bob And Co. Certainly not a bad horse to have in reserve especially as he loves Cheltenham and if he did end up running in the race he would surely have place claims, but as for winning it I can't really see it. For me he's had better chances of winning this in the past and I don't see where the improvement would come from for him to go and win it.

Slightly surprisingly Pure Vision skipped Fontwell and instead runs at Leicester today, but that means he won't be going to Cheltenham in a couple of weeks as he isn't qualified. Maybe we will see him at Aintree instead.

Usually we don't see the entries until the day after they close so I will post them on here as soon as I see them.