Darran

calva decoy · May 10, 2022

My Australian horse Beneficio is back out tomorrow morning at Sandown in Race 4 (5.10am) and I have had a good look at the race. I think there are 5 including her who have a winning chance.

Sniper Legend - A course and distance winner in January who was then spelled for a few weeks and he returned with a fast finishing 2nd at Cranbourne last time. Should go well if building on that here.

Super Thief - Won at Swan Hill and then landed a BM64 (same level as this) at Sale in the September and October last year. He then went to Flemington on Melbourne Cup day and ran well enough to finish 5th of 8. He then went to Moonee Valley when disappointing, but suffered a small laceration so you could ignore that effort for me. He jumps quite well so should be fairly handy and he has had a couple of jump outs in preparation for this.

Tycoon Humma - Course and Distance winner at this level in February and ran well at Moonee Valley in March when she had a poor draw when finishing 4th. She was disappointing at Flemington last time, but that was at BM78 level and I wonder if she didn't truly stay the 1100m. If she bounces back from that then she can go well here.

Burnum - Looked good when winning at Mornington a year ago but then picked up an injury. Has had a couple of jump outs in preparation for this and could be anything although the fact she is favourite is more on potential for me.

Beneficio - Ran a huge race at Caulfield to finish 2nd when getting run down late on by the winner who had very useful form. Beneficio wasn't running from out of the handicap and she was only getting 0.5kg from the winner when it should have been 4kg. As usual she was so fast away from the start and having looked at the field I think she will lead them up quite easily here. Teluici has front run the last twice, but she doesn't look to have as much speed from the gate as Beneficio has. She's drawn in the middle so should be able to get across to the rail OK. The 3rd at Caulfield has finished 3rd in a Listed Race since so that is a boost to the form. To me it looks like the drop down to 1000m should be ideal for her given how much speed she has and she has handled a bit of cut in the ground before so the Soft track shouldn't be an issue. It was an open handicap she ran in at Caulfield so this BM64 should be easier for her and although I don't know much about the jockey she comes highly recommended and she claims 2kg. The trainer reports that she has done extremely well since the run and he expects her to be super competitive in this race. I think she will be hard to run down and has a great chance of winning although at 5/1 I think she is a great e/w bet because I really would be surprised if she is out of the first 3.

As for the others I do think Tycoon Humma is over the odds and take out the Flemington run she would be shorter in the betting so I will have a little on her e/w. I think the other main danger is Super Thief given the good run at Flemington on Melbourne Cup day.

Beneficio e/w @ 5/1 with William Hill and Betfred

Tycoon Humma e/w @ 16/1 with William Hill and Bet365

Bedlam · May 10, 2022

On 5/7/2022 at 5:00 PM, Torque said:

Ouch. Just my luck to follow when it's a total washout. I'm sure you're up on the season though and that's what counts.

Sadly unless a minor miracle happens on the final day of the season and any play-off bets I might have I will be at a loss this season. My record on my strongest fancied picks has been shocking which is very unusual and will be the main reason I end up with a loss.

Gidds · May 7, 2022

No previews as such, but basically most of the bets are teams playing teams that are already guaranteed their spot in the play-offs and can't move position so I think are likely to have their foot off the peddle. I am strong on St Albans because Tonbridge decided to strangely sack their manager this week so I don't think their players are going to care how they play as a new manager will be coming in after the season ends. Kings Lynn had a good 3-0 win at Woking on Monday and I think they are playing better than Wealdstone at the moment so will take them as well. Just to note it is the last games in NLN and NLS, but the NL has another set of fixtures next Saturday as well as 3 games on Tuesday.

Kings Lynn to beat Wealdstone 1pt @ 9/4 with Bet365, Coral and Ladbrokes (take up to 7/4)

Bath City to beat Oxford City 1pt 9/4 with William Hill (take up to 7/4)

Hungerford to beat Dorking 1pt @ 9/4 with William Hill (take up to 2/1)

Hampton & Richmond to beat Maidstone 1pt @ 18/5 with Betfair and BetVictor (take up to 3/1)

St Albans to beat Tonbridge 3pts @ 21/20 with William Hill (take up to 8/11)

Leamington to beat AFC Fylde 1pt @ 7/2 with Paddy Power and Betfair (take up to 11/4)

Chester to beat Brackley 1pt @ 5/2 with William Hill (take up to 2/1)

Darlington to beat Kidderminster 1pt @ 21/10 with BetVictor and Bet365 (take up 15/8)

Bedlam · May 4, 2022

Saunter Boy really toughed it out well to win yesterday and Elvison so nearly made all in the race before, but we did get the e/w money at least. Tomorrow sees the Champion Novice Hurdle and the big race of the week the Grand Annual.

Race 1

No surprise that Brungle Bertie is favourite for the Champion Novice Hurdle after his dominant win at Pakenham last time where he had Roland Garros, Devon Miss, Hush Writer, El Diez and Cenan all in behind by 11L and more. He was really impressive, but the concern has to be the Heavy 10 track which will make things very different from that Pakenham race. The worse ground he's raced on so far was in a flat race at Ballarat last year and to be fair he was a good 3rd, but that was only a Heavy 8 whereas it is likely to be a Heavy 10 tomorrow. When I previewed that Pakenham race I mentioned that Roland Garros was likely to be using that race as a prep for this contest as it has been reported he wants a heavy track which of course he is going to get here. Because of that I think he has a chance of reversing form and I make him the selection here. Pueblo and Blandford Lad won the maiden hurdles on the card although both were in slower times than Brungle Bertie's race. I don't think the form is overly strong from either contest although the flat class that Blandford Lad has does mean I would favour him out of the two plus he has Pateman on top.

Roland Garros 1.5pts @ 3/1 with William Hill, Betfred, Coral and Ladbrokes

Race 7 - Grand Annual

Bit Of A Lad - Was well beaten in the Brierly on Tuesday and hasn't shown much in 3 previous runs in this contest.

Police Camp - Likely to be outclassed in this.

Getting Leggie - A really interesting runner who was having his first start in just over a year at Pakenham last time after suffering a tendon injury. I thought he would probably need it, but he exceeded my expectations in finishing a very good 3^rd behind Riding High. He won the Brierly 2 years ago so he certainly has the class to win a race like this and he will no doubt come on plenty for his first run in a year. He's had a good trial since then as well. I think it is interesting connections have skipped Tuesday's race to just run him here although the Heavy track would be a small concern.

Master Poet - A solid horse who should enjoy getting out to this trip given he was 2^nd over 4000m over hurdles in 2019 and on the flat he's been 2^nd over 3800m and 4^th in the Jericho Cup which is over 4600m both in November last year. He's had two solid placings over fences at Warrnambool and Pakenham and he wouldn't be out of this.

Vanguard - What a winner of the Brierly he was on Tuesday as he really toughed it out to beat his stablemate Britannicus. His trainer spoke beforehand that he would be better suited to the Grand Annual trip and he certainly ran like a dour stayer on Tuesday. In September he did win two races with just 4 days between them one a maiden hurdle and the other a maiden steeplechase over 4100m in heavy ground. That suggests he is tough enough to do the 2 day back up here. This will be tougher though, but clearly deserves to be favourite.

Heberite - Bolted up in a BM120 Hurdle at Terang to start the season off and then made his chasing debut at Pakenham last time when he was 3^rd behind Valac and Budd Fox. He was 3^rd in last year's Jericho Cup and won over 3800m prior to that so you would imagine he will enjoy stepping up to this distance. He has a good heavy track record as well which will help him. This has no doubt been his target although I always worry about chasing experience for a race like this.

Budd Fox - Was 2^nd on the flat at this meeting last year after winning on hurdling debut at Pakenham. He was 4^th on his only other hurdling start last year, but he has some very good flat form including finishing 2^nd in the Jericho Cup. I thought he jumped very well on his steeple trial in March and then he stayed on strongly to nearly pip Valac at Pakenham on his steeplechase debut. Valac's rider did ease up so the margin should have been bigger, but the way he stayed on suggests he needs this sort of test. Again lack of experience is a concern, but he certainly has the class to win this.

American In Paris - Was well beaten by Vanguard at Hamilton in April and it is hard to see him being able to reverse that form here unless Vanguard underperforms on the back up.

San Remo - Pretty consistent over jumps, but at a lesser level than this and not sure he will be good enough.

My Kings Counsel - Will be outclassed here.

Eyes Are Blue - Another who shouldn't be good enough.

Verdict - This should be a tremendous race and Vanguard could easily win this on the 2 day back up, but I think he is tight enough in the betting. I think Budd Fox will thrive for the trip and I really liked his performance at Pakenham last time as a prep for this. Obvious slight concern about jumping experience, but he jumped well round here in his trial. I am also backing Getting Leggie who I think will have been trained with this in mind and ran really well at Pakenham given the time off.

Budd Fox 1.5ps @ 9/4 with William Hill

Getting Leggie 1pt e/w @ 16/1 with William Hill

Bedlam · May 3, 2022

No luck on day 1 sadly but we have 2 races on the 2nd day including the feature Hurdle of the week.

Race 5

The betting sees Runaway and Under The Bridge miles clear of anything else, but I'm not sure about either of them. Runaway makes the running, but I'm not sure he will see the trip out. Simon Wilde had a fantastic day 1 with his horses and Under The Bridge did win on the flat 11 days ago so he is in good form. He was only average in maiden hurdles though and failed to finish in his one start in a maiden steeplechase last July. To be fair he might have had a problem that day and he trialled well enough last week over the larger obstacles. Even so I still think he looks on the short side. Instead I am going to tip up his stablemate Elvison. It seemed he had issues last year as he only ran twice over fences and disappointed both times and the last of which was last May at Casterton. He was better in 2020 though and he stays well as he showed when winning over 3800m at Casterton. He stayed on well enough over 1600m on the flat 17 days ago and I thought he looked good in his steeple trial last week so he looks the value in the race for me.

Elvison 1pt e/w @ 12/1 with everyone

Race 6

The big hurdle race of the week is the Galleywood and I think Saunter Boy can follow up his Pakenham success. He was made to work hard for it by Out And Dreaming who reopposes here, but he is worse at the weights and I don't see him being able to reverse the form. Out of those racing so far this year I do think Saunter Boy is the best hurdler we have seen and no doubt he has been aimed at peaking for this contest. It will be interesting to see how his stablemate Big Blue gets on and the last time he ran over hurdles was in the 2020 Cheltenham Festival. Last year he went over fences and won 1^st up, but then disappointed in two subsequent starts. I suspect this is being used as a prep run before going back over fences, but he does have the ability to play a part.

Saunter Boy 3pts @ 6/5 with Bet365 and William Hill

Bedlam · May 2, 2022

Really looking forward to the next 3 days as it is the Warrnambool Carnival which sees some cracking jumping action and probably the biggest race in the jumps calendar, the Grand Annual on Thursday. Day 1 sees the maiden hurdle divided 3 times and the Brierly Steeplechase which will see some of the horses run in it and then back up in the Grand Annual on Thursday.

Race 1

Those that have been over hurdles already don't set that tough a standard for the newcomers to overcome. Zouy's Comet ran well from the front at Pakenham last month on debut and kept trying although they finished in a bit of a heap so not sure about the strength on the form. I liked the way Lord Pierro trialled over hurdles last week as he jumped well on the whole so he could go well, but I do think the favourite Portland Jimmy will be hard to beat. He is the best on the flat out of these and landed the Donald Cup last year. I like the fact he's had plenty of hurdle practice having had 5 trials and he looked an experienced jumper in his trial here last week. This race has no doubt been the target and he's the one for me here.

Portland Jimmy 1pt @ 11/10 with Bet365

Race 2

Count Zero is the favourite here which is down to the fact he's been in good form on the flat having won a couple of starts ago. I watched his last hurdles trial and although I wouldn't read much into the fact he was well beaten I wasn't overly impressed with it. Gravistas is an ex Mark Johnson who won at Newmarket on his last start over here which is his only win. I think he has a chance here as he seems to jump well and it could be that hurdles bring out some improvement from what he's been doing on the level of late. There was very little between Zedstar and Joshua Reynolds at Pakenham last month, but I was a bit disappointed with the latter who didn't seem to progress from his first up 2nd. Zedstar meanwhile is frustrating, but surely a maiden is going to come his way at some point and with Pateman on top here it could well be this one. Mighty Oasis was 2^nd in a maiden hurdle last year and he's been doing OK on the flat of late so might also run well.

Zedstar 1pt e/w @ 8/1 with Bet365

Gravistas 0.5pts e/w @ 12/1 with Bet365

Race 3

The former Irish trained Killourney is the favourite here on his hurdling debut and he does look the most likely winner. He's been running well in good races on the flat and his recent hurdle trail was decent. Rider In The Snow has also been running well on the flat, but I wasn't so impressed with his hurdle trial last time. This is probably the weakest of the 3 hurdles, but I just can't understand the price of Lady Fiorente. She didn't show a great deal on hurdles debut at Hamilton at huge odds and not surprisingly was a big price at Pakenham last time, but she ran really well to finish 2^nd and was well clear of Zedstar and Joshua Reynolds. Maybe she wont repeat that effort, but if she does she has cracking place claims at the very least here and quite simply she shouldn't be the price she is.

Killourney 3pts @ 5/6 with Betfred, Paddy Power and Betfair

Lady Fiorente 0.5pts e/w @ 50/1 with Betfred and Ladbrokes

Race 6

The feature race on Day 1 and as much I wouldn't rule out last year's 2^nd Bit Of A Lad completely I do think the winner will come from either Vanguard or Valac. Both horses were impressive last time with Vanguard winning at Hamilton and Valac at Pakenham on his first start over fences and Valac is the one I am going to go with. I thought it was just about as good a jumps debut as you would wish to see at Pakenham and there was more depth to that race in my view. The winning margin was 0.2L, but his jockey eased up on him late on and he was value for much more than the winning margin. Britannicus did win here two starts back, but he was disappointing at Pakenham last time especially as he looked the winner at one stage.

Valac 2pts @ 2/1 with Bet365

Bedlam · April 30, 2022

Stockport v Boreham Wood

This game is on BT Sport at 5.20pm and I think the home side can cover the handicap. The top 3 all lost last week and clearly nerves are creeping in, but I think back at home Stockport can get back to winning ways. I know Boreham Wood beat Bromley when I opposed them last week, but Bromley are in a bad way at the moment themselves and Wood went and lost to Southend on Tuesday night. Stockport have a big class edge for me at the moment and they appeal on the -1 handicap.

Bath City v Tonbridge Angels

Bath have had a disappointing season, but they are ending it quite strongly and the only teams to have beaten them at home in the last 9 home games are Dorking and Ebbsfleet. Tonbridge haven't won in 7 away games now and the home side look value.

Gloucester v Chorley

It didn't really happen for Gloucester last week although going down to 10 men didn't help. They do seem to be playing much better at home at the moment and there are quite a few players who will be looking to be offered deals at the end of the season. What will also be playing on some of the players minds is the fact Chorley won the reverse game 9-0 and I think they will be wanting to right that wrong. Chorley aren't convincing at the moment and I think the home side look value here.

Spennymoor v Hereford

Two sides who still have an outside chance of reaching the play-offs but I certainly think the home side are playing the better at the moment. Hereford have really struggled on the road of late and weren't great at Gloucester on Easter Monday so the home side look a big price to me.

Stockport -1 @ 1pt @ 13/10 with Betfair, Betfred, Paddy Power and BetVictor

Bath City 1pt @ 11/8 with William Hill and Coral (take up to 11/10)

Gloucester City 1pt @ 7/4 with Betfair, Paddy Power and Betfred (take up to 6/4)

Spennymoor 1pt @ 6/5 with Skybet, Paddy Power, Betfair, Betfred, Coral and Ladbrokes (take up to 11/10)

April 29, 2022

1 hour ago, Thornwick said:

Nice write up Darren was at Askham Bryan when sine nominee ran jumped awful can't do that at cheltenham

Cheers and no she can't, but hopefully it was just a bit of an off day on that front as she jumped well in her previous races.

Bedlam · April 29, 2022

Some strong fancies on the card so let's hope a profit is made. Every horse has been covered.

4.40

Rewritetherules - Ran his best race for his new owner/trainer/rider last time at Kempton when a 6L 2^nd to Gesskille, but he didn't exactly look in need of a horse that wanted dropping back down in trip to 2m. That run last time though did suggest he still had the ability to win a race like this.

Envious Editor - Had done most of his running over 2m when trained in Ireland so no real surprise that he has looked a bit of a non stayer in points. He's been a bit unlucky to bump into some good horses in the early part of the season as well because he would have finished 2^nd to Feuille De Lune at Charing in December had he not unseated at the last and he was always going to struggle in deep ground at Chaddesley Corbett over Christmas given the pace Fier Jaguen set that day. He then went to Ludlow and ran in the first hunter chase of the season and he's travelled really well into the race before running out of steam after a mistake at the 3^rd last. After that run he had a wind op which I think has probably also helped him as there is every chance that is also why he wasn't finishing his races off. His first run after that was at Brafield where he actually found himself outpaced over 3m before staying on into 3rd. A couple of weeks later he finally won a restricted where it took the 2 runners over 8 minutes to finish. Easter Saturday saw him put in a very impressive performance at Sandon where he bolted up by 15L. That was over 2m5f and it wasn't a strong race by any means, but crucially for me he saw his race out really well which is why I think the wind op has helped him. I imagine this race will have been the target and he's a big player.

Envoye Special - Amazing how he's managed to win over 3m in points a couple of times this season as he looks a complete non-stayer in hunter chases. He even beat Sixteen Letters over 3m in December at Larkhill which is good form. His two hunter chase runs saw him go off way too quick in soft ground in the Welsh Foxhunter at Ffos Las and he duly failed to see out the trip. He took a keen hold at Stratford a month later, but was held up although the result was the same as he failed to stay again. After that he has bolted up in a Mixed Open at Trebuddon which is clearly a short track based on the winning time of 5.44. He was a really good 2^nd in this last year to Fumet D'oudairies and he should be involved again. Not sure if James King has chosen to ride Envious Editor over him or not as Envious Editor is also owned by Cousin Pascal's owner.

Famoso - I thought there was a bit of promise in the Southwell run where he just didn't stay and he was exhausted at Wincanton last time when falling at the last where his jockey should have pulled him up before the fence. Drop to 2m should suit, but I'd be surprised if he was good enough to beat at least a couple of this.

Fan Club Aulmes - Apart from when pulling up at Charm Park last month he has had a very good season winning twice and finishing a close 2^nd to Molineaux at Larkhill in February and that horse has won plenty this season. There is definitely some substance to his form and he won over 2m4f last season to give some hope the 2m trip should be fine. Has the very good Alice Stevens in the saddle and he certainly isn't out of this.

Sparkleandshine - His only win under rules came back in 2018 over 2m so this drop down in trip could well suit, but the bigger issue could be if he is good enough. He was a good 2^nd off 112 over 2m3f at Stratford last June, but back there in a hunter chase last month he never really got involved. He had been leading in his two points this season before not staying over 3m so maybe not being able to front run didn't help. He might not get the chance to do it here either and he was 18L behind Envoye Special that day. He wouldn't be a shock winner, but at the same time he doesn't make much appeal from a betting point of view.

Kostantina - Wasn't very good on the flat and was struggling to get competitive when going pointing until she suddenly went and won at Dingley over Easter. Made all that day and will find it much harder to make the running against this quality of opposition.

Verdict - Fan Club Aulmes certainly has a chance, but I think the winner will either be Envoye Special or Envious Editor. I have had to change this bit again as the prices this morning are very different to what they were last night. I was hoping to out up Envious Editor, but he went too short then this morning he has drifted out and it means he has become value again so he is the bet. Envoye Special who was the value last night has been backed this morning. For multi purposes I have permed the two of them up although the prices they are we can only really back one so it is Envious Editor.

Envious Editor 1pt @ 15/8 with William Hill and Betvictor (take up to 11/8)

5.15

Castle Trump - Jumping was an issue when he first ran over here in 2020 as he failed to get round in 3 runs. He missed last season, but has been making up for lost time this season having won 5 of his 6 starts. He's been winning impressively and the only disappointing run was when he was 3^rd at Horseheath in January, but he then went on to beat the winner of that race in a match last month. He's clearly useful and progressing, but I'm not sure there is too much depth to what he has been beating.

Famous Clermont - Has shown quirks in the past having run out over hurdles last year and then idling badly when beaten by Marcle Ridge at Barbury in December and when Virak nearly caught him at Charlton Horethorne two starts back. He then went into a hunter chase at Exeter and he was really impressive and certainly wasn't stopping that day. Indirocco is a solid yardstick so to beat that horse by 8L in a canter was seriously impressive stuff. I do have a slight concern about the trip and you do have to worry slightly about him getting up the hill given his tendency to idle, but he has the best form in the race and sets a high standard.

Go Go Geronimo - Took a while to win a maiden, but has looked fairly progressive since winning one at Duncombe Park in February. The only time he's been beaten since he won was in heavy ground and whilst he has a bit to find on bare form at least he's heading in the right direction.

How To Get Away - Looked very good earlier in the season when beating Mammoth by 17L and then Clondaw Westie by 3L. The problem is he was beaten by Castle Trump (reversing form as mentioned above) and then Fier Jaguen last time. Clearly that is still good form, but with Rebel Dawn Rising also beating him last season he does look like the stables 2^nd string.

Minimalistic - Was miles behind Famous Clermont in January and although he has progressed since then winning his last two, it does look like he might struggle to stay this trip let alone be good enough to reverse the form.

Rebel Dawn Rising - Was clearly progressing fast at the back end of last season when winning impressively at Garthorpe twice and then he bolted up on his seasonal return at Horsheath in February. He then made his hunter chase debut at Leicester and I think that race was a strong contest. He made the running at a fairly slow pace, but he stayed on really well to beat a good horse in Benefaktor and Sixteen Letters was back in 3^rd so the form is rock solid for me. That was over 2m4f, but he has shown that he stays well also so I don't have to many concerns about the step up to this trip. I thought he jumped really well at Leicester which will also stand him in good stead here and he has to go on any shortlist.

Steel Express - Only got a BHA rating of 94 and although he has won a point this season he was 7L behind Minimalistic last time and shouldn't be good enough.

The Whistle Blower - Started the season with a couple of 3^rd in maidens where he stayed on well in the first of them and finished tired in the 2^nd of them. Then he went and won 3 on the bounce going through his grades in good style. He beat Every Minute who is a good horse two starts back at Brafield and then hacked up by 18L last time. Clearly progressing nicely although Every Minute is trained by Tom Ellis and they run Latenightfumble here which makes me think she is better than Every Minute so The Whistle Blower might well have to find more improvement to land this.

Voie Dans Voie - Been well beaten by How To Get Away and Castle Trump this season so shouldn't be good enough to land this.

Latenightfumble - As you might have guessed she is related to Latenightpass who actually won this race in 2019. She ran in a couple of point to point bumpers last season finishing 3^rd at Aintree and then 2^nd at Stratford where she looked every inch a stayer. This season she started of with a 2^nd to Fier Jaguen at Chaddesley Corbett which was respectable return. She's then won 3 on the bounce in really good style although in the 2^nd of those wins Fier Jaguen didn't run his race which is a shame as it would have given us something to rate the form on. She's clearly progressive and although on bare form she has a bit to find she has a leading chance.

Luscious Lilly - Looks to have little chance.

Sine Nomine - Another horse who looks very progressive and once she lost her maiden tag at Alnwick in January she has landed 4 on the bounce going through her grades. She didn't jump as well as she can last time, but her jumping has looked good before that and she hasn't really had to come off the bridle in any of her wins. She has to find more improvement again to land this, but she's certainly going the right way.

Verdict - There are plenty of 1s in the form of these horses and it can be tricky trying to work out who brings the strongest form to the race. It has to be said though that Famous Clermont sets a very high benchmark and I'm not sure any of these will match what he has shown he is capable of. I do worry about what he might find off the bridle up the hill, but he might well just have too much class for them. The problem is his price and at the moment he is around the right price so it is hard to put him up as a single bet. Rebel Dawn Rising looks the biggest danger as I loved the way he jumped at Leicester and I think he will stay this far. Out of those that have yet to run in a hunter chase I think Sine Nomine could be the main one so at this stage I will have small win bets on those two and see if we get a drift on Famous Clermont, but he will be the one I put in the multi bets.

Rebel Dawn Rising 0.5pts @ 9/2 with most bookies (take up to 7/2)

Sine Nomine 0.5pts e/w @ 8/1 with Skybet, William Hill, Ladbrokes and Coral (take up to 6/1)

5.50

Fix Le Kap - Was a surprise 2^nd in this last year given he wasn't coming into the contest in great form so to only lose by a neck to Trio For Rio was some effort especially as he came there looking like he was going to win on the run-in. He was then disappointing again in two runs pointing after that. This season he's finished a close 2^nd a couple of times in small field points. If he runs like he did last year then he has a chance, but that run really does stick out like a sore thumb.

Hidden Charmer - He has won over 3m pointing including last time over Easter at Chaddesley Corbett, but he's never really struck me as a horse who really stays 3m and he has nearly 2f further to travel here. He was 3^rd at Ludlow behind Pont Aven in February, but again he just looked like a non stayer.

I'm Wiser Now - 3^rd in this race last year beaten 7L and he came into the race in much better form that he has so far this season as he had won a couple of hunter chases at Stratford. This year he was 3^rd at Charing and then a very disappointing well beaten 5^th at Leicester. He didn't jump well in this race last year as he jumped left handed and he may not have been in love with the track which is another worry.

Knockaderry Flyer - Was a shock winner of this back in 2017 after which he became one of the worst handicapped horses in training as he was rated 125 for winning a bad race. He's been kept busy this season having run 8 times already and has actually won 3 including his last two. He was a well beaten 5^th in this last year though and I couldn't have him repeating his 2017 success.

Majestic Touch - Had 558 days off before making his debut for Alan Hill in March where he took a very keen hold before pulling up which wasn't a surprise as he'd never been 3m before. Last time at Kimble he finished last of 3 over 2m4f when looking outpaced. When he was running under rules before he also looked like he needed more of a stamina test so maybe now he's got the freshness out of the way he might stay better. If he was able to run up to his old rules form he wouldn't be out of this.

Moratorium - Had a really good start to the season when winning 3 on the bounce including beating Tel'Art by 1/2L at Larkhill. His trainer rode him in a hunter chase at Warwick when he ran well to finish 2^nd to Reikers Island and he looked like he could do with a bit of stiffer test of stamina. He was given a bit of a break after that and finished 4^th at Didmarton when again looking like it was a bit sharp for him. Last time he just got up to win a 3 runner race. His trainer could easily have ridden him or he could have used Nathan Green again, but Myles clearly wants the horse to have the best chance possible so he has gone and booked Will Biddick for the ride. I'd imagine they have been training him for this as well and he looks to have an obvious chance.

Over The Bridge - Still a maiden and only rated 50.

Tel'Art - I fancied him at Stratford last time because I thought he hadn't been given a great ride at Bangor in soft ground and then he tried to keep tabs with Famous Clermont at Exeter and paid for it late on so he was overtaken for 2^nd place. He ended up going off favourite at Stratford, but I think he just found things happening all a bit too quick for him given the pace Zamparelli set. Also the over watering of the ground didn't help and that is another concern here, but given he got so close to Moratorium at Larkhill in January I think he has to be a leading contender and just maybe he will finally get his ideal conditions.

Trio For Rio - Last year's winner and he just held on despite jumping out to his left throughout which is something I expect him to do again here. He won a 3 runner race at the start of the season and then was 3^rd at Larkhill behind Maitree Express, but it was probably disappointing he didn't beat Envoye Special for 2^nd place. He then went to Kingston Blount where he pulled up. That was two months ago so I am guessing that he had an issue that day given we haven't seen him since and the run was too bad to be true. Clearly got obvious claims to land this contest again.

Verdict - If Trio For Rio bounces back from his poor run last time then he has a chance of winning this for the 2^nd year running, but the fact he jumps to his left isn't going to help him and although he could uphold form with those he beat in this race last year I think two that didn't run in the contest are good enough to land this. Moratorium looks like he's been lined up for this race and the fact his trainer has booked Will Biddick for the ride instead of riding him himself tells you they want him to have the best possible chance of winning. I am also going to cover Tel'Art who was just behind him earlier in the season and on his Exeter run I think he's got a very good chance here. He looks way over priced at 14/1.

Moratorium 2pts @ 2/1 with William Hill and BetVictor (take up to 6/4)

Tel'Art 1pt e/w @ 8/1 with Bet365 (take up to 5/1)

6.25

Cheltenham De Vaige - Won a Newton Abbot handicap off 112 in August and has run OK in 4 points this season and won the first of them beating Capitaine over 2m4f. Solid enough runs since, but would be a surprise winner of this.

Dandy Dan - Ended up being pretty useful for Kim Bailey getting up to a mark in the 140s. He has given Laureen Keen-Hawkins some good experience this season in 5 points which have been her only ever rides. He nearly beat Sixteen Letters first up and was a staying on 3^rd behind Captain Buck's after that. He was giving Caid Du Berlais a good race at Ston Easton until she suffered a pretty soft unseat at 2 out. He won well at Howick and then had no issues winning a match at Andoversford earlier in the month. Clearly the jockey's experience is a concern, but I think he still has a fair level of ability and if he gets round safely I can see him finishing strongly up the hill.

Fifty Shades - Landed the Lord Ashton of Hydes Cup at Cocklebarrow in January over 3m6f and given his stamina I'm a little surprised he hasn't run in the 4m race. He beat Sumkindofking that day and beat the same horse at Didmarton which to be fair is a pretty sharp track. He wouldn't have been suited by a match at Maisemore last time so I wouldn't read too much into the fact he was beaten at 8/13 that day. He was 3^rd in this race last year and this year's renewal looks a bit stronger on paper, but he's in good heart and can run well.

Mighty Stowaway - Ran a huge race at the Festival when Jamie Codd kicked for home with Winged Leader plenty early enough which did for both their chances. Even so it was a new personal best for me to finish 3^rd behind Billaway (who runs 10 minutes after this race starts). He was privately sold after that and the Sutton's purchased him and have sent him to Lawney Hill. He was due to run at Aintree but was taken out on the day of the race. He's been a solid horse over the years and clearly if he can repeat the Cheltenham 3^rd then he has a leading chance.

Salvatore - If they do over water than that will increase Salvatore's chances as he can be very good when there is cut in the ground. He got no luck in the Intermediate Final in 2019 when finishing 3^rd which was a good run, but he ran no sort of race at the Festival last year. This season he's been very in and out. Obviously he won at Bangor two starts back, but I wouldn't read too much into that form as Porlock Bay wasn't at his best that day and Dieu Vivant is a serial loser. Having said that he did manage to reverse form with him at Southwell the next time, but Salvatore ran below par again and it left Dieu Vivant with a very easy task. He probably does have the ability to win this, but chances are he will have needed them to really over water to do so.

Sumkindofking - Beat Cheltenham De Vaige last time, but was 2^nd to Fifty Shades on this previous two starts. Obviously a good jockey booking, but he doesn't seem a likely winner to me.

Zamparelli - Fell early on in the final race on this card last year and has had 4 2nds since he won at Ludlow last March. I thought his jockey left it a bit late to go after Bletchley Castle at Ludlow 2 starts back and then bizarrely he set a blistering gallop on his next start at Stratford. Not surprisingly he got tired and ended up finishing 2nd. My thinking was he is better over shorter distances than this, but perhaps he stays better now given he has looked a bit outpaced over shorter apart from last time where like I say he went too fast. I'm sure he will be ridden with more restraint here and could be capable of going well.

Caryto Des Brosses - A horse who has been blighted with injury issues which is a shame because I think he had the potential to be a Foxhunters horse and to be fair he still could be given he is only 10. He won the Restricted race at Stratford's hunter chase night in 2018 and after that I had him down as a potential top notcher as I was very impressed with him that night. The next year he was just denied by Hazel Hill in this contest and then he was headed right on the line in the big race at Stratford by Wonderful Charm. He was only seen once in 2020 when he pulled up and then he only made it back in June last year for one win at Garthorpe. This year he has only beaten 4 rivals for two wins, but he couldn't have done it any easier and to me he still has the ability he had back in 2018 and 2019. I think he could easily go one place better this year.

Geordie B - Thought he ran pretty well behind Dolphin Square at Lingfield in February and I think he is better than he was able to show at Carlisle last time where he only just got up to beat Shanroe Street. That one clearly did nothing for the form when beaten at Hexham last time although again I wouldn't use that as a guide as I think he should have won with a better ride. I think he will be better in a better race so I wouldn't rule him out totally, but he will have to find some more improvement I think.

Story Of Friends - Stuff at Wincanton last time and has no chance here.

Trappist Monk - Won a match at Aldington 11 days ago, but this is much tougher.

Verdict - This is all about Caryto Des Brosses for me as I think he is the best horse in the race. It was no surprise the 9/2 that he opened up at was very quickly taken and he's much shorter now, but I just think he wins so I still think the price is value. If Mighty Stowaway repeats the Festival run then clearly he is likely to be the main danger and if the jockey can get Dandy Dan round then he might be capable of hitting the frame, but there really is little depth to this race for me.

Caryto Des Brosses 4pts @ 13/8 with Paddy Power and Betfair (take up to Evs)

7.00

Wind Tor - Ran well enough when 3^rd at Wadebridge in January and then went handicapping winning a couple at Exeter over 3m off 86 and 94. Last time though she finished last at Warwick although the trainer said the ground was too quick for her. Would need the front two in the betting to disappoint and for the ground to be over watered.

Cashmoll - Won her last two, but one was a walkover and the other basically a match. I think her chance is highlighted by the fact she was 51L behind Mammoth at Horseheath on New Years Eve and Feuille De Lune beat that horse by 30L last time.

Feuille De Lune - One of the most impressive pointers to have run this season. She really is some tool having won 4/4. The first win in November she finished alone and then the winning margins for her other wins are 25L, 25L and 30L. At the first of those at Charing Envious Editor would have finished 2^nd but for unseating at the last and she had easily despatched him. Last time at Charm Park she was so good that every other horse but the 2^nd pulled up in the race. The trainer has described her as the best horse she has trained and considering she trained Top Wood who was placed twice in the Foxhunter here and won the Aintree Foxhunters' that proves how good she is. The one thing about her though is she jumps to the right which is clearly a concern round here. Still I think she will be too good anyway and really only has one other horse to beat.

Kalabaloo - That other horse is this one and she won the race in 2019 in really good style. In 2020 she was 9^th at the Festival and then last year she suffered an injury in her only start at Kelso causing her to miss the rest of the season. This season she won her first 3 starts in really good fashion, but then at the start of this month was very disappointing a Edgcote finishing a well beaten last. She needs to bounce back from that, but she obviously must be well at home otherwise she wouldn't be running. Looks the only danger to Feuille De Lune.

Tb Broke Her - Hasn't run too badly in her last couple of points, but has plenty to find with the principles.

Verdict - As long as she doesn't blow her chance by jumping out to the right then I don't see how Feuille De Lune doesn't win this. She has looked so good in her 4 pointing wins this season and has a serious engine. It is no surprise she has been backed into favouritism, but there is still some value in the price for me in what should be a match. Kalabaloo won this in 2019 and looks the only one good enough to take advantage should the jumping prove to be Feuille De Lune's downfall.

Feuille De Lune 4pts @ Evs with most bookies (take up to 4/6)

7.35

Captain Drake - New connections paid £21k at the sales for him last month after he had pulled up in the Midlands National. The positives are that he stays really well and was 4^th in last season's Welsh National as well as finishing 2^nd in the 2020 Midlands National. He had looked on the downgrade this season until he won the Devon National at Exeter in February off 127. He is a horse who has already had two wind ops and has worn a tongue tie on his last 8 starts, but the vet reported after the Uttoxeter run last time that he had a breathing problem. That has to be a concern although if he runs up to his Exeter run then he clearly is a big player.

Coup De Pinceau - Well behind Give Me A Copper at Newbury last time and looks an unlikely winner.

Dawson City - We know he stays really well and finished 3^rd behind Captain Drake at Exeter two starts back. He was beaten just under 10L that day when they carried the same weight and with jockey's claims here he gets 4lbs tonight. He ran OK over hurdles last time when finding it a bit sharp for him round Taunton. This test should be ideal for him and hard not to see him running well.

Gran Paradiso - Won a handicap at Sedgefield off 104 just over a year ago and managed to win a Mixed Open at Cothelstone over 3m4f last month. Was beaten at 1/2 at Barbury next time though. Stamina should be fine, but hard to see him having the class to win this.

Law Of Gold - I was rather surprised to see him entered in this as I thought they would look for a lesser race before heading back to Stratford for Stratford Foxhunters. He was very good that night in beating Bob And Co and prior to that he had got the better of Shantou Flyer at Fontwell. The big issue is his 3 runs this season. He ran no sort of race at Wetherby and then at Ascot although he won his only other rival Adrian Du Pont burst a blood vessel. I thought he looked a bit lazy that day and he certainly did at Fakenham last week when he never really travelled well at all and certainly never really looked like winning. I guess it could have been a sharp enough test for him, but even so he made heavy weather of getting past the 3rd. This is clearly a very different test though and although he's never been this far he ought to stay. They have also put the cheekpieces on to try and wake him up. What also has to be a concern is that connections have said they weren't going to run him in the Festival Hunter Chase anymore because he doesn't like the water jump. Both times he ran in the race he's made a mistake at the water jump and although in 2020 he ran OK to finish 7^th he ended up pulling up last year. Obviously he's at a lesser level here, but he arrives with a few question marks over him.

Shantou Flyer - He loves Cheltenham having won twice, finished 2^nd 4 times and 3^rd twice in 10 starts here. He's pulled up a couple of times in the Grand National, but you would imagine he will stay fine in a race like this. He's just been seen once this season when beating Jett at Fontwell although given how that horse ran at Aintree and the fact he looked like he dogged it a bit at Fontwell I'm not sure he achieved a huge amount. Even so he should be capable of running a big race at his favourite track.

Give Me A Copper - He has looked an ideal candidate for this race all season and it wouldn't surprise me if this has been the target. He ran as if he found 3m round Warwick on the sharp side when 3^rd in January on his debut for new connections. Last month he then went to Ludlow in race which turned into a match and I thought Will didn't use enough of his stamina which allowed Gesskille to beat him with his pace. That was still a good effort though because the winner looked very good when winning at Kempton next time out. Then at the start of the month he went to Newbury over just short of 3m and it was no surprise to see him get outpaced before staying on really well to finish 2^nd to Ami Desbois. I think that is a really strong piece of form and Solomon Grey who was 3^rd that day bolted up at Ludlow last week. He's got the cheekpieces on for the first time to help him as well, but 4m round here looks right up his street. The race is probably a little stronger than I thought it might be, but I think he's got better with every run this season and as I say that 2^nd at Newbury is rock solid, so I think he has a fantastic chance.

Mr Snuffles - Looks like he will be outclassed here.

Optimised - Won a hunter chase at Bangor in 2019 and was 1L 2^nd to Southfield Theatre in this race in 2019. He also ran well enough in this last year when 6th, but he hasn't looked in any sort of form this season and whilst coming back to this race might perk him up it is hard to see him hitting the frame in the form he is in.

Popelys Gull - Shouldn't be anywhere near good enough to land a blow here.

Roc D'Apsis - Well beaten in the Grand Military Gold Cup last month and although he won a point a couple of months later he was well beaten at Kimble over Easter and shouldn't be good enough.

Sam Red - Regardless of the rest of his form he seems to love this race as he was 3^rd (albeit 27L behind the winner) in 2019 and then last year he was 2^nd beaten a length by Captain Cattistock. There is nothing remotely in the rest of his form to suggest he should be a player in this and he was 62L behind Shantou Flyer at Fontwell. Even so given his record in the race if you want to take a chance e/w I could hardly blame you.

Smoke Man - Comes here on the back of landing a hat-trick in points and he looks like he will stay this sort of trip and would be in better form than he was when he tried 3m5f last year. I really respect his trainer, but the form of those wins are someway below what some of these have managed and he will need to improve a fair bit to win this.

Verdict - Must admit that this race is a little stronger than I had hoped when I earmarked Give Me A Copper out for the race, but I still think he rates a fantastic bet at the prices. He has been running well all season especially at Newbury last time and he has been crying out for a stamina test which he finally gets. Shantou Flyer has a great record here and if he wins it wouldn't surprise, but his price is shocking as I don't think he achieved a great deal at Fontwell. If the stamina test and cheekpieces turn out to be what Law Of Gold needs then he rates the main danger to Give Me A Copper. Dawson City and Captain Drake need the ground to be overwatered in my view as both seem at their best with cut in the ground, but at least both will stay.

Give Me A Copper 3pts @ 5/1 with most bookies and 11/2 in a place (take up to 3/1)

8.10

Across The Line - Syd Hosie has paid £28k for him at the sales a month ago and he looks a solid 120 horse, but you are going to need to be better than that to win this.

Cousin Pascal - Gave it a good go from the front in the Foxhunters', but faded into 5^th late on. I can't help but feel that he left his race behind him when running at the Festival where he didn't really have a great experience. He's good enough to win this, but I'm not sure he's going to be at his best after two tough races.

Peacocks Secret - Was 3^rd in this last year when he travelled really well into the race but didn't quite see it out as well as the two in front of him. Has been running consistently again this year and was suited by hold up tactics at Stratford when beating Zamparelli who went too fast that day. He then walked over at Dingley last time. He's got a place chance again, but this looks quite a hot race.

Stratagem - Was pulled up at Hereford on his hunter chase debut when Paul Nicholls' horses were running poorly so it wasn't a huge surprise when he put that performance behind him when bolting up at Ludlow beating Solomon Grey by 16L. That was hugely impressive and it was disappointing he got beat at Warwick a few days later. I did think that if Maxwell had kicked for home earlier though then Not That Fuisse wouldn't have caught him. Also it might have come soon enough after the Ludlow win. He looks a top class horse and should go close.

Wagner - Beat Cousin Pascal at Hereford and then benefitted from Adrian Du Pont falling when in total command at Wincanton. Still it was a good effort as he didn't jump as well as he had at Hereford in ground he would have found soft enough. I thought he gave Bletchley Castle too much rope at Ludlow last time and he could never reel him in. Stepping back up in trip will probably suit and he has place claims here.

Ami Desbois - As I've already mentioned elsewhere he won a really hot form race at Newbury when beating Give Me A Copper who will hopefully have given the form a boost in the previous race. I actually think the slight drop down in trip might suit him as he looks to have plenty of pace based on the fact he's made the running on all 3 starts this season. There is no better trainer than Fergal O'Brien at knowing what horses to send hunter chasing and he proved it again with this horse. I thought his jockey gave him a good ride at Newbury and the 7lbs is going to come in handy as it means Stratagem has to give him 11lbs. A leading contender to make all.

Solomon Grey - He helped frank the Newbury form by bolting up at Ludlow last week and although he had little to beat in the end the time was decent and it was a good performance. He does have ground to make up on Stratagem and Ami Desbois having been 16L and 6L behind them at Ludlow and Newbury, but he looked like he might have come forward again last week. I'm still not sure he can reverse the form, but he clearly is one of the leading contenders.

Clondaw Westie - Ran really well to finish 2^nd in this last year and that came on the back of running a huge race to finish 4^th in the Aintree Foxhunters' and he was unlucky to lose at Stratford as he unseated Izzie at the last when looking the likely winner. Clearly trained for Aintree again this year he was in 2^nd when again unseating Izzie this time at the Canal Turn. This looks a stronger race than last year, but he could easily run well again.

Eeze A Saint - A bit of a dark horse as he came over from France where he fell on his last start in March last year. He then bolted up in a point at Bitterley at the beginning of the month where beat Master Sunrise by 22L. We can at least going back to his pointing form in 2019 where easily won an Intermediate to break his maiden tag. Chances are he is going to have to be very good to win a race like this, but he clearly has ability.

Midnight Cowboy - Ran pretty well at Fakenham last week when 3^rd to Not That Fuisse and whilst that gives him a form chance through that horse this is likely to be a very different type of race and he shouldn't be good enough.

Point And Sharp - Was awful at Kempton last time and will do well to get round here.

Verdict - This is a good race, but I really do think Stratagem has a class edge on his rivals. That Ludlow performance was one of the best of the season and he really ought to have won at Warwick, but even so if Not That Fuisse was running in this he would be one of the fancied horses. I do want Ami Desbois on side as well as that Newbury run was very good. This is the race with the most depth in it though as the next few in the betting all have some sort of chance as well, but I am going to have a small e/w bet on Eeze A Saint. I wasn't originally going to back him, but he clearly has ability and he's a much bigger price than I thought he would be so he can be added to the bets.

Stratgem 1.5pts @ 2/1 with William Hill and BetVictor 9/4 with Bet365 (take up to 7/4)

Ami Desbois 1pt @ 4/1 with pretty much everyone (take up to 11/4)

Eeze A Saint 0.25pts e/w @ 33/1 with everyone (take up to 20/1)

blueboy199 · April 22, 2022

Boreham Wood v Bromley

We have to thank Boreham Wood as a lot of the profit side of things has come from opposing them lately. I am more than happy to oppose them again. We have two sides who were bang in contention for the play-offs, but both sides have seen poor form mean they won't now make them. Bromley's issue has been scoring goals and they missed some good chances against Maidenhead on Monday. That obviously is a concern here, but at least they have won recently whereas Boreham Wood haven't and the price difference between the two sides is way too big.

Chippenham v Dulwich Hamlet

I thought Mike Cook leaving Chippenham might see them suffer a loss of form, but that hasn't really happened and I think they can pick up 3 points here. Dulwich have really struggled for weeks now and no wins in 9 games has seen them more than likely blow a play-off place. Chippenham are still in the play-off hunt and they had a good win over Oxford City last time. They look in better nick at the moment and are worth backing.

Chorley v AFC Telford

Chorley are struggling of late as I highlighted recently when I opposed them with Alfreton. I thought Telford would pull away from the relegation zone, but they haven't done quite as well as I thought they would. Even so they have been picking up points and they are capable of getting something out of this so look a decent price.

Southport v Spennymoor

Happy to oppose Southport again as they are really struggling on the whole. Spennymoor are one of the form sides at the moment and I think they can pick up another 3 points here as they try and claim a play-off spot.

York v Gloucester

York are pretty inconsistent at the moment and lost 3-0 to Alfreton on Monday and Gloucester have been doing pretty well of late apart from a poor performance at Kettering on Good Friday. Their only other 2 losses in the last 10 games though were a harsh defeat at Telford and against Gateshead who not surprisingly outclassed them. They look over priced to get 3 more points here.

Grantham v South Shields

South Shields' away from has stopped them from winning the league. When they beat FCUM on Saturday that was their first away win in 9 matches and even that wasn't a deserved win. I don't think they will chase the title now as the goal difference is too big really and they can't finish lower than 2^nd so I think they might rest some players in this with the play-offs in mind. Grantham are already relegated, but have had a couple of decent results in their last two games and if South Shields do ease of then they could win this.

Merstham v Carshalton

Merstham have lost 10 on the bounce and have scored 5 and conceded 27 in that time. That means they are bottom of the table, but they still have a chance of beating in the drop and this could be the perfect game for them. Carshalton have shown themselves to be on the beach already and with nothing to play for the home side might just be able to get the result they need.

Bromley 1pt @ 9/4 with Paddy Power, Betfair and Bet365 (11/4 with Skybet and take up to 7/4)

Chippenham 1pt @ 7/5 with William Hill (take up to 5/4)

AFC Telford 1pt @ 15/4 with Paddy Power, Betfair and BetVictor (4/1 with William Hill and take up to 11/4)

Spennymoor 1pt @ 7/4 with Betfred (15/8 with William Hill and take up to 11/8)

Gloucester 1pt @ 14/5 with Betfair and Paddy Power (bigger with William Hill and take up to 2/1)

Grantham 1pt @ 2/1 with Bet365, Paddy Power, Betfair and William Hill (take up to 13/8)

Merstham 1pt @ 21/10 with Bet365, Paddy Power, Betfair and William Hill (take up to 7/4)

Bedlam · April 20, 2022

My maths was wrong and I have staked 32.5 not 31.5. Coalville and Farnborough have both placed so returns are 36.38 so we have guaranteed profit for another season. Hayes and Dorking have outside chances of winning their league's whilst it looks like it will only be place money for Tshimanga.

buga00 · April 18, 2022

Great to land a massive number with Dover on Good Friday especially as we haven't had a great deal of luck with any of the real big prices that I have put up this season. It was a deserved win as well by the sounds of it. Alfreton were also winners on Good Friday. Onto Easter Monday and just time for the tips of which there are 8.

Wealdstone to beat Boreham Wood 1pt @ 14/5 with Skybet, Coral and Ladbrokes (take up to 2/1)

Alfreton to beat York 1pt @ 11/5 with William Hill, Paddy Power and Betfai (take up to 15/8)

Farsley Celtic to beat Southport 1pt @ 21/10 with Skybet, BetVictor and William Hill (take up to 7/4)

Corinthian Casuals to beat Carshalton 1pt @ 12/5 with Bet365, Betfair and Paddy Power (take up to 2/1)

Bishops Stortford to beat Cheshunt 1pt @ 9/5 with Bet365 (take up to 6/4)

Leatherhead to beat Kingstonian 1pt @ 4/1 with Betfair and Paddy Power (take up to 2/1)

Bromsgrove to beat Stratford 1pt @ 6/5 with Betfair, Paddy Power and Bet365 (take up to Evs)

Coalville to beat Rushall Olympic 1pt @ 6/5 with Betfair, Paddy Power and Bet365 (take up to Evs)

blueboy199 · April 17, 2022

The one downside to betting on Australian racing is we don't get BOG and also I'm asleep when the races happen. James Reynolds drifted to over 20/1 which was made, but at least he hit the frame. What was even more annoying though was I really fancied Vanguard and he drifted so much he didn't even go off favourite for the race! Still these things can't be helped.

Easter Monday sees an all jumps card at Pakenham and we have some really good action to look forward to with two feature races over hurdles and fences as horses are looking to build up fitness for the Warrnambool Festival at the start of May.

Race 1

Zedstar seems the obvious place to start as he managed to finish 2^nd on his first 4 hurdle starts last season and then 3^rd on his following 2. He got really close to breaking his duck in a couple of those 2nds and it would be surprising if he doesn't find a race sooner rather than later. He ran well on the flat last month which is a good sign. Pueblo is the other main contender to come from last year's hurdle races and although he was well beaten in all 3 starts he did finish 3^rd once and 2^nd twice and he was beaten by good horses so although the margins were big enough in the context of this race I think they are strong runs. He won on the flat last month and was beaten less than 3L despite finishing last earlier this month. I think he's a good chance here. Johnny Buccaneer and Dr Dependable were 4^th and 2^nd at Warrnambool and there wasn't much between them that day. Dr Dependable was then 4^th at Hamilton last time behind Blenheim Palace which was another decent effort.

However he was 3L behind Joshua Reynolds and I think the form will be upheld here. I put Joshua Reynolds up e/w at Hamilton and I can't believe he drifted to such a big price as it was way too big based on his 2019 hurdles form where he had finished a close 2^nd twice. As I mentioned last time he missed 2020 and only had the 1 flat start in February 21. I thought it was cracking run as he'd only had 3 flat starts and a couple of trials to get him ready. He will surely strip fitter here and he's got a big chance.

I'm really surprised by the betting here and I can't understand why Joshua Reynolds is as big as he is and why Dr Dependable is favourite so he is the main bet. I am also covering Zedstar as I thought he was likely to be the market leader so he's over priced as well. Before seeing the prices I thought Pueblo might be the one who was over priced, but as it stands I think he's about right at 3/1.

Joshua Reynolds 1pt @ 11/2 with Paddy Power, Betfair, Coral, Ladbrokes and Betfred

Zedstar 0.5pts @ 6/1 with Paddy Power, Betfair, Betfred, Coral and Ladbrokes

Race 2

I don't think this is a strong race on paper. Annoyingly neither hurdle trial of Blandford Lad is available to view, but he is the best flat horse of these and won a decent handicap at Flemington last month. Nothing in this could get anywhere near that level on the flat. Some of these showed useful enough form over hurdles last season. Not Usual Dream didn't have a great start over hurdles last year, but then finished 2^nd twice and 3^rd twice. Has had flat runs and 2 hurdles trials for fitness and he can go well. Once Were Lost showed ability over hurdles last year, but I thought his 2 steeplechase runs were better. He's had 3 trials and a flat run for fitness. Onset has run over hurdles 9 times for 2 2nds and 3 3rds. I thought her best effort was over course and distance so that bodes well. Should be fit enough after 4 flat runs and 3 trials.

Of the other hurdle newcomers Zouy's Comet and Runaway Train look the most likely contenders. Again no video footage of either's hurdle trials but the former did win his latest one. What was interesting was that after his flat run last week the trainer reported to the stewards that he'd trailed well over hurdles which bodes well. He was essentially pulled up in that run, but his jockey thought there was something amiss although he was fine after the race. His previous start saw him finish a close 2nd. Runaway Trian has been running pretty well at a low level on the flat of late and has had a couple of hurdle trials leading into this.

If Blandford Lad transfers his flat class to hurdles then he ought to be winning this and understandably he's pretty short so for me it is a race just to watch.

Race 3

I think this winner of 1 Hurdle race could be a very hot form race and I think it looks tricky. We have Hush Writer and Blenheim Palace who have both looked good in winning maiden hurdles this season and are classy horses coming from the flat. We then have horses who have won maiden hurdles last season. Brungle Bertie wouldn't have the other two's flat class, but he did it well when winning his only hurdle start to date. Rolland Garros was poor on his hurdling debut, but he looked good on his next start and then went to Ballarat at the end of the season and was a very good 2nd. He's good enough to win this, but it was interesting that his jockey's reported he needs a heavy track after his two defeats so the ground is unlikely to be soft enough for him. My guess is that this run is being used to get his eye in ahead of Warrnambool. Sir Edwin Landseer looks the other one to have a chance of winning. He's really lost his way badly on the flat, but showed he liked hurdling last year with his first two runs over hurdles the peak of his efforts. He's trialled well over hurdles ahead of this and he should run well. I've really fancied Annunciate on both starts this season, but I can't have him winning a race like this on the back of those 2 efforts.

I think there is some value in backing Blenheim Palace whose 2^nd in the betting behind Hush Writer. I thought both did it well enough on debut and I wouldn't have as much between them as the betting does. It is no surprise that the opening 6/1 about him was taken. I'm also going to cover Sir Edwin Landseer as he's a huge price based on his hurdling form. I can only think they have him priced up on his flat form.

Blenheim Palace 1pt @ 16/5 with Bet365

Sir Edwin Landseer 0.5pts e/w @ 25/1 with Ladbrokes and Coral

Race 4

Gobstopper - Very good hurdler in 2020 winning 4 times including the Australian Hurdle at Sandown. Missed last year and has had 7 starts on the flat and had some trials this year. Not been showing a great deal on the flat and I'd rather watch for now.

Saunter Boy - Won the winner of 1 hurdle on this card last year and then bolted up in the Australian Hurdle. He then continued in good for with another win over hurdles and two very good runs on the flat before disappointing in the Grand National Hurdle. He bounced back though to take the JJ Hurdle at Ballarat at the end of the season. He's had a couple starts on the flat ahead of this and has run OK in both as he looks to be building his fitness. Going to be a big player here.

Eckhart - Won a couple of times last year over hurdles, but not at the same level of some of these. Been building up his fitness on the flat this year, but would need to have improved to win this.

Runaway - Was well beaten in this last year and would have to step up again to do better this time around. Ran OK on the flat last month which was his first start since July.

Out And Dreaming - Was 2^nd in the maiden on this card last year and then went and won 3 on the bounce. He was then 20L behind Saunter Boy at Warrnambool, but the ground was very testing that day and the fact he wasn't seen again suggests there may have been an issue. Not as good as some of these on the flat, but he won a couple of races back in February. He's won a couple of hurdle trials that will have got his eye in and he has a good chance here.

Tamarack - Won his first two starts over hurdles within 7 days of each other at Sale and Sandown last year, but then only beat 1 home in the JJ Hurdle. Not shown much on the flat this year, but clearly going to apricate going back over hurdles. Could be a possible improver this season.

St Arnicca - This is certainly stronger than the race he won Warrnambool last month, but he did it nicely and at least has a recent run over hurdles in his favour.

A good race for the feature hurdle on the card, but I do think Saunter Boy is the most likely winner so he is the main bet. I'm also going to cover Out And Dreaming who on this better ground can at least get closer to Saunter Boy.

Saunter Boy 1.5pts @ 8/5 with Bet365

Out And Dreaming 0.5pts @ 4/1 with Betfred

Race 5

Cracking race this and I think it will be won by one of the 3 chasing newcomers. Heberite is 2/2 over hurdles having won the last maiden hurdle of last year at Ballarat and then winning on the opening card of this season at Terang where he beat a weak field with ease. There is only video footage of his first chase trial and he jumped OK when finishing 3^rd of 3. He won his last one though so his jumping could well have improved in that trial.

Valac won his first two hurdles and then seemed to not stay 3900m at Sandown in the Australian Hurdle. He was spelled after that and then ran on the flat 4 times in the Autumn. He's had two steeple trails and again there is only footage of the first one, but he jumped really well in it when finishing 2nd. He won the 2^nd one in a 3 second quicker time than Heberite and although its been a while since he ran in a race proper he looks like he will be fit enough for this.

Budd Fox just had the two starts over hurdles last year and he won the maiden hurdle on this card in the first of them before disappointing a little when 4^th at Sandown the following month. He then went back to the flat for the rest of the year running well on the whole. He's had three flat starts this year and he won a BM78 at Sandown last month and then on April 6^th was 2^nd in similar contest. He's clearly flying and in between those two efforts he had a steeple trial where I was really impressed with his jumping.

I'm really keen on Budd Fox here as he comes here in great form and I loved his jumping in his trial. I will also have a cover bet on Valac who I would have as 2^nd favourite over Heberite. It would be surprising if one of those 3 doesn't win.

Budd Fox 2.5pts @ 11/8 with William Hill, Coral and Ladbrokes

Valac 0.5pts @ 14/5 with Bet365

Race 6

The feature steeplechase on the card features one of the best chasers in Zed Em. He was 2^nd in the Grand Annual last year having run in the two big chases at Oakbank (sadly no more) finishing 2^nd both times. He's had 3 flat starts in New Zealand and one in Australia prior to a couple of steeple trials. He clearly has a chance of taking this on his way to the Grand Annual, but I think he might find this a sharp enough test and clearly he is being trained to peak next month.

Riding High landed last year's Australian Chase at Sandown so he is certainly capable enough of winning a race like this. This is a very different test though and although he's been running OK on the flat this year I do think he might be better in a couple of starts time.

Getting Leggie was 2^nd in this 2 years ago and then went on to win the Brierly at Warrnambool although he disappointed on his other two starts that year. Last year his only run was in the Von Doussa at Oakbank and he must have picked up an injury as he only beat one home and then wasn't seen again. He's had a steeple trial and a hurdle this year but not shown a great deal and as much as he does have the ability to win this my thinking is he will need it fitness wise.

This is a step up from the two races Britannicus has run in so far this season, but I thought he was pretty impressive at Warrnambool and I think this further step up in trip will suit him as well. We know he's fit and I just wonder if connections will have eyed up this race as a suitable early season target for him, because to me the others either shouldn't be good enough or are likely to have targets in the future like Zed Em for example. So for me Britannicus is a pretty confident selection.

Britannicus 2.5pts @ 13/10 with Bet365

calva decoy · April 16, 2022

2 hours ago, calva decoy said:

Ah nice & a decent 2nd place to boot .

I can't afford the ownership fees these days but have gone from being part owner with 12 of us to 40 then 60 & now 3,500 which in all reality , we are all paying for the true owners benefit & if you get £20 back from every £100 it's about par for a syndicated horse but it's great fun & to have a winner whilst you're a guest at the race itself is a massive buzz , like I said earlier , good luck & enjoy the ride .

Yeah I’d love to be able to see her race in the flesh but I feel that’s the only thing I’m really missing out on. She ran a huge race and the sp was just as big. She won just under $30k as well for finishing 2nd

Tedthewolf · April 15, 2022

57 minutes ago, calva decoy said:

Good luck ?

Are you based in Australia & if not how or why have you got shares & or own a horse that is based down under ?

Thank you and I live in London. I have an Australian wife so although I’ve always loved the Melbourne Cup I made sure a few years ago to learn more about racing in Oz in case we ever move. During covid I was purchasing the Australian racing paper online to help with my previews on here and saw her advertised and took the plunge. With prize money levels in Oz I knew there was a fair chance she would win enough to pay for some of her training fees and in just 4 starts she has earned $33k. If she wins tomorrow it’s $70k to the winner. I own 2.5% and pay $100 a month. As much as the chances of me watching her race in the flesh are slim it is so easy to watch her races her and the information provided along the way has been superb. I have 5% in another horse with a different syndication company but he’s yet to reach the racetrack yet.

Budgie 65 · April 15, 2022

5.45am sees my Australian horse Beneficio make her metro debut when she runs at Caulfield in R5. It's a really competitive race as it is 5/1 the field and there are quite a few you could give chances to so I am not going to recommend a bet as I have done when she has run before. What I can tell you though is that the trainer is really happy with the filly and that she has worked really well since the win last time. He must think quite a bit of her to send her straight into this sort of company on the back of the maiden win and she has a decent draw so hopefully she will be able to use her good start and early speed to lead them. It will then be a case of if she is good enough to stay there. It could be that she runs really well and finishes mid div, but I do think she is a bit over priced at around 20-25/1 so I am having a small e/w bet on her and hopefully she can go close.

yossa6133 · April 14, 2022

Boreham Wood v Dover

I am taking a complete flyer here, but Dover are over priced to win this. Boreham Wood haven't won in 8 now and prior to scoring against Aldershot last week they hadn't scored in 5. They were rubbish against Woking the other week and to lose to an Aldershot side who have been woeful for weeks is shocking. Dover obviously are the poorest side in the league, but they have been trying very hard in recent weeks and arguably have been unlucky not to have got more points on the board. They are playing with plenty of fight and Wood really are stuck in a rut right now. Maidenhead did have an xG of over 5 against them on Saturday, but it still took until very late for them to actually get a winner. Clearly the home side should be odds on favs, but we can get at least 16/1 about a Dover win and that's just too big.

Eastleigh v Bromley

Another team who were trying to get in the play-offs are Bromley, but whilst they are heading to Wembley for the FA Trophy Final, their league form has deserted them. They haven't won in 10 now and Eastleigh haven't done too badly since the new manager come in. They were unfortunate to lose to Wrexham last week and I think they have a solid chance of beating Bromley.

Notts County v Kings Lynn

Again taking a flyer here, but Kings Lynn are giving themselves a real chance of staying up as I mentioned last week. County were woeful on Saturday when losing 5-1 to Torquay and if they under estimate Kings Lynn then they might just come unstuck again. Again clearly the home side should be odds on, but Kings Lynn aren't without hope here.

Boston v Bradford Park Avenue

Bradford are in good form at the moment and are unbeaten in 5. Boston are better at home than they are away from home, but Bradford have got a 0-0 draw at Gateshead recently so they can come here and win in my view. Boston had a good win at Curzon last week, but they aren't very good and they have been very in and out of late. Again the away win is simply too big.

Chorley v Alfreton

Chorley got a good draw last night against York, but I'm not sure they have been playing as well in general as they were earlier in the season so I am taking a chance that Alfreton can get a result here. Alfreton have only lost to Fylde and Brackley in their last 10 games and have been much improved after struggling to win football matches.

Dover 1pt @ 12/1 with William Hill and Betfred (16/1 with Ladbrokes and Coral) take up to 7/1

Eastleigh 1pt @ 11/5 with Skybet, Coral, Ladbrokes and Betfred (take up to 7/4)

Kings Lynn 1pt @ 7/1 with Skybet, William Hill and Betfred (15/2 with Ladbrokes and Coral take up to 9/2)

Bradford Park Avenue 1pt @ 5/1 with William Hill and Paddy Power (take up to 11/4)

Alfreton 1pt @ 4/1 with Skybet and Betfred (take up to 3/1)

vikki37 · April 10, 2022

Worthing are champions so add another 15pts to the returns to take it up 27pts returned.

buga00 · April 9, 2022

Pushed for time to write more in depth previews this week, but some very brief thoughts on the 6 bets

National League treble

It should have landed a couple of weeks ago, but Wrexham to beat Eastleigh, Grimsby to win at Weymouth and Stockport to beat Southend in the live game does look pretty rock solid to me and we can get just under 9/4 on it happening.

Kings Lynn v Yeovil

Yeovil have been in fair nick, but the home side are giving themselves a real chance of survival with their good form so I think they look value here as they look to catch up Aldershot.

Hampton & Richmond v Billericay

Despite it not paying off last week when I opposed Hampton and backed Billericay I am happy to do the same this week at the prices. I just don't think there is as much between the two sides as the bookies suggest.

Havant & Waterlooville v Braintree

Braintree are always keeping themselves in games at the moment and that means they always have a chance of nicking a victory. Due to that I am happy to back them again here at a big price.

Slough v Eastbourne

This looks the best bet of the weekend as Eastbourne are flying at the moment. 6 wins on the bounce have pretty much secured themselves a play-off place, but they will be looking to get 3^rd if they can so they won't be easing up at all. I think they look very over priced here.

Morpeth v FCUM (Northern Premier)

The home side had a poor defeat last week, but I think they can bounce back here. FCUM travelled to Italy to play a match on Wednesday night and there is every chance that trip could take a bit out of them ahead of this game.

Wrexham/Grimsby/Stockport 2pts @ 2.2/1 with Bet365 and Betfred (2.4/1 with Ladbrokes and Coral and take up to 7/4)

Kings Lynn 1pt @ 19/10 with Betfred (21/10 with Skybet and take up to 6/4)

Braintree 1pt @ 10/3 with Betfair, Paddy Power and BetVictor (15/4 with Hills and take up to 5/2)

Billericay 1pt @ 7/2 with Paddy Power and Betfair (18/5 with Hills take up to 3/1)

Eastbourne 4pts @ 11/8 with William Hills, Betfred and Skybet (take up to 4/5)

Morpeth 2pts @ 6/5 with Bet365, Betfair and Paddy Power (take up to 10/11)

blueboy199 · April 6, 2022

Here is my Aintree Foxhunters' preview. As I explain at the end we are getting some tremendous e/w value so am attacking the race strongly in the hope the winner is covered and a couple more hit the frame. Ultimately though place the bets you feel comfortable placing on the race, but I felt it fair to put up exactly how I have placed my bets on the race.

Actival - No doubt will give his jockey a nice spin round, but his form this season is nowhere near good enough to get involved at the business end of the race.

Another Venture - Thought his 2^nd in the opening hunter chase of the season was a solid effort and then at Bangor he probably didn't enjoy being ridden so prominently. Even so he looks another one that should give his jockey a nice spin round without being good enough to trouble the judge.

Cat Tiger - All the talk had been that Bob And Co was going to be the chosen Maxwell runner but he has had a late change of heart. He was in front jumping the last in this last year, but then he faded to finish 3rd. I was a bit surprised that after the Grand Sefton Maxwell said that the horse didn't handle the track given he ran so well last year. I just thought he didn't get a great ride in the Grand Sefton which was the reason he was a well beaten 5th. After that he was 2^nd at Doncaster and then won at Ascot in January. He ran in the Kim Muir last month but never got competitive which is a concern, but he has to be one for the shortlist based on his previous form this season and last year's 3rd.

Clondaw Westie - Ran a hell of a race in this last year to finish 4^th at 200/1 and he backed that up with a good 2^nd at Cheltenham and he would likely have won at Stratford if he hadn't unseated his jockey at the last. He has had 4 starts this season in points and has failed to complete twice and finished 2^nd twice. He didn't exactly come into this race last year in very good form and arguably he's run better this time around. No doubt he has been trained for this race and as much as it's hard to see him being good enough to win you couldn't rule out another good showing and possibly hitting the frame at big odds again.

Complete Sizing - Won a maiden hunter chase at Clonmel last year for his former connections, but followed that up with a fairly well beaten 2^nd to Some Man. He's now trained by Phil Rowley and was a well beaten 3^rd behind Premier Magic and Porlock Bay at Chaddesley Corbett over Christmas. He did follow that up with a win at Bangor's point to point course, but that level of form would need to be improved on by a fair bit to get seriously involved here.

Cousin Pascal - As I mentioned in my Cheltenham preview he has a history of running poorly when facing a long trip in the horse box. Maybe that was to blame for his Cheltenham performance, but he ran no sort of race that day and if anything I'm surprised James didn't pull him up sooner with this race in mind. James gave him a peach of a ride last year and I certainly think his ride won him the race as he gave him the perfect Aintree ride. He is a horse that has bounced back after poor efforts so the Cheltenham run wouldn't put me off as such and I think he has to go on anyone's shortlist.

Dashing Perk - Trainer has won this before and this horse only got as far as the first last year when he was bumped into and came down. Has run twice this season in veterans' races pulling up at Haydock and then finishing a well beaten 4^th in the final at Sandown. I thought he was short enough last year at 12/1, but obviously impossible to know how he would have got on. It wouldn't be a total shock if he was able to be involved, but for me there is a lot of guesswork involved about what form he is in and the percentage call for me is to oppose.

Demain Des L'aube - Has run like a non-stayer in points this season and he backed up that view at Carlisle in a hunter chase last time. He travelled well enough into the race, but then didn't see out the trip. I just wonder if he ran there to qualify for this and the drop back in trip will certainly suit. Connections have had a big price placed horse in this in the recent pass and although he would be a surprise winner I wouldn't be overly surprised if he finished in the top half of the field.

Down The Highway - Only managed to win 1 point in Ireland from 5 starts and then was a well beaten 3^rd in a hunter chase at Gowran Park last time. Looks an unlikely winner to me.

Drumconnor Lad - Thought he ran well enough on his hunter chase debut in the Walrus at Haydock although might have been a bit flattered to finish as close as he did as they went no pace. Dropped down to 2m last time at Leicester where he stayed on well to be beaten less than a length having been outpaced. I think this trip will suit and can see him running well enough, but I'd be a bit surprised if he ended up in the frame.

Ferocious - Ought to be massively outclassed here.

Golden Tobouggan - A rather quirky horse who has plenty of ability but doesn't win as many races as he should. Ran well for a long way in this last year before weakening at 3 out and then pulling up before 2 out. If he settled better this year then I can see him getting round, but that could be easier said than done with him.

Jett - Gave a real bold sight out in front in last year's National and was only headed as they turned for home. He jumped really well and clearly enjoyed the experience of jumping these fences. His seasonal return came in a handicap at Doncaster and he ran a cracking race to finish 3^rd off 152 in a race that has worked out really well. Connections then made a late decision to try and qualify him for Cheltenham. He had a simple task at Kelso and then went to Fontwell where he was 2^nd to Shantou Flyer. I thought it was telling that connections decided to skip Cheltenham after that because he seemed to not really go through with his effort after taken the lead. I can't have it that Kelso took anything out of him because he would have had harder gallops than what he had to do that day. Possibly Fontwell didn't suit him and we know that Aintree does and if he runs to his Doncaster effort then he has a big chance. I just worry though that he won't repeat that and he might find it tougher to make the running over this shorter trip where they will be going quicker. If he won it wouldn't surprise me and his jockey has a great record over these fences, but I think his price is short enough at the moment.

Latenightpass - Ran a huge race to finish 2^nd in this last year especially as he had been to Cheltenham first and finished 4^th their. I actually thought him going very wide at the Canal Turn was the difference between him winning and losing last year as Cousin Pascal must have saved at least the distance he beat him by. This year connections have decided to bypass Cheltenham which was a sensible decision and have kept him to pointing. He has won 2, but in between he did fall at the last when looking the winner. It was an uncharacteristic fall so I'm not worried about his jumping and he has a huge chance.

Le Breuil - Has finished 3^rd in a Becher Chase before although he pulled up in this season's renewal. Was a fair 3^rd at Ascot in a handicap behind Cat Tiger in January and then ran well enough in hunter chases at Wetherby and Doncaster. He actually looked the winner for a long way at Doncaster, but emptied quite quickly after a peck on landing at 4 out. His last win was in the National Hunt Chase so he ought to have stayed better than he did that day and he looks an unlikely winner for me.

Marrcudja - Plenty to like about his two hunter chase performances so far with a good 3^rd at Hereford just behind Cousin Pascal and then he bolted up at Leicester. I think he is one of the possible winners here and I'm a big fan of his jockey although he can't use his claim.

Michael's Pick - Landed a maiden hunter chase at Downpatrick last month, but that form is way below what is needed here as is the rest of his form.

Mighty Stowaway - Ran a huge race at Cheltenham to finish 3^rd where he didn't quite see out the race as well as the first 2 having kicked for home with Winged Leader. He was put up for sale on Twitter last week and he has now moved to Lawney Hill's yard. Clearly they won't have had him for very long. The big concern for me though is he looked like he hated it last year when he finished 10^th and the Cheltenham effort was for me by far a personal best. If he does back that up and he takes to the fences then he clearly has a chance, but they are big enough ifs for me to not want to get involved.

Myth Buster - It was a bad hunter chase he won at Musselburgh and he's been beaten in 3 points so far this season so he would be a surprising winner for me.

Pont Aven - You have to give him some credit for actually getting round at Cheltenham given so few did, but I was right about him not being able to bully that field in the same way he had lesser fields in points and at Ludlow. I think this test has every chance of suiting him better than Cheltenham, but his jumping has been an issue in the past and the worry is he might make one mistake too many round here and that would cost him. Also has the Cheltenham experience left a mark? I'd probably be keener on his chances if he had come straight here.

Porlock Bay - I always thought Aintree would suit him more than Cheltenham and as much as I thought he had the quality to win at Cheltenham I wasn't sure he had the stamina needed. He proved me wrong though as him and Billaway pulled a long way clear of the rest. Connections then decided to put him away and he reappeared with a 2^nd at Chaddesley Corbett over Christmas to Premier Magic which I thought was a really good effort as Porlock Bay probably wasn't as fit as the winner that day. Although he was 2^nd at Bangor he took a backwards step for me and it was no surprise to hear after the race that he had an issue which meant he would skip Cheltenham. In an ideal world you would have liked to have seen him get a little prep run in somewhere, but if he is back to the level he showed at Cheltenham last season then he will go very close here as I think this test promises to suit him even more.

Reikers Island - Bolted up in the final hunter chase of last season at Cartmel and then won the 2^nd one of this season at Warwick. Neither were especially strong heats but he did it well enough. He was well beaten in a point last month although the heavy ground might have been to blame. Can give his jockey a good spin round, but hard for me to see him playing a part in the finish.

Stand Up And Fight - On his day he's capable of good form, but he's not really shown a great deal so far this season, especially in 2 hunter chases including when he was a well beaten 4^th behind Winged Leader.

The Dellercheckout - Won a couple of points on his first two runs of the season, but was 25L behind Pont Aven at Ludlow and was then beaten in a point last month. Can see him getting round, but a top 10 finish at most for me.

Verdict - With the extra places we have on offer we are getting some incredible value especially with Bet365 and Skybet who are going 6 places which is staggering because there are so many horses that have no chance. Most of the others are going 5 places. I am going to base the bets around Bet365 and Skybet's offer because it is so generous and because of that I am going to stake more on race than I usually would. What I will say is that I do think these horses have a great chance of a top 5 finish as well, but I would maybe reduce the stakes a little. The main bet is going to be Latenightpass. I really do think if he hadn't lost so much ground at the Canal Turn last year he would have won and with him skipping Cheltenham he is going to be primed for this and I just can't see him not at least landing the e/w part of the bet. Given I thought Porlock Bay would have a better chance at Aintree than Cheltenham he is next on the list. There was nothing wrong with his seasonal return and as much as he was disappointing at Bangor there was an excuse that day so we can forgive him that. If he can run anywhere near his Cheltenham effort from last year then he's a massive chance of winning this. I think Pont Aven is overpriced even though I'm concerned about his jumping and the fact he had a hard race at Cheltenham. Again I thought Aintree would suit him more and I think the concerns are more than factored into his current price at the time of writing of 16/1. I have to have some coverage on Cousin Pascal because if he had skipped Cheltenham he would be half the price he is now. Given he has bounced back from poor runs before I don't have too many concerns about his poor effort at Cheltenham. I think other possible winners are Jett, Cat Tiger, Mighty Stowaway and Marracudja and I'd be a little surprised if one of those 7 didn't win.

I am going to have a couple of small bets at some bigger prices though as no doubt there will be something at a big price who will finish placed. Drumconnor Lad will like this trip and I think he has the ability to outrun his odds and Demain Des L'aube is a massive price, but this trip is going to be much more suitable than what he has been running over this season and he's shown he still has a fair bit of ability. Hopefully the winner is amongst the 6 bets and we can get a couple more hitting the frame as well to make a nice profit on the race.

Latenightpass 2.5pts e/w @ 11/2 with Bet365 and Skybet (take up to 5/1 e/w and then have 2.5pts win up to 4/1)

Porlock Bay 1pt e/w @ 7/1 with Bet365 (take up to 11/2)

Pont Aven 0.75pts e/w @ 16/1 with Bet365 and Skybet (take up to 10/10)

Cousin Pascal 0.5pts e/w @ 10/1 with Bet365 (take up to 7/1)

Drumconnor Lad 0.25pts e/w @ 33/1 with Bet365 and Skybet (take up to 25/1)

Demain Des L'aube 0.25pts e/w @ 100/1 with Skybet (take up to 50/1)

York Carrsi · April 2, 2022

Banbury the first team to get over the line. Total stakes were 31.5 and they have returned 12pts

yossa6133 · April 2, 2022

The 3rd jumps fixture comes from Hamilton on Sunday and as usual we have a maiden hurdle, a handicap hurdle and a handicap steeplechase.

Race 1

Ex Adian O'Brien trained runner Blenheim Palace makes his hurdling debut here having failed to win in any of his 10 starts on the flat. He is the best flat horse in the race and he won his last hurdles trial, but some of his jumping in that was pretty poor. He did jump better as the trial went on which would give more hope that he will be better with more experience. He might win this on ability alone, but I wouldn't want to take odds on based on what I saw in the trial. Dr Dependable and Crafty Lion have finished 2^nd in the two maiden hurdles we have seen so far and although neither race was overly strong this race isn't either so both would have place claims again although Crafty Lion is fairly exposed now. The one I think is over priced is Joshua Reynolds. He ran in a couple of maiden hurdles last year and finished 2^nd in both of them and although he hasn't shown a great deal in a couple of flat runs this prep they clearly have been runs to get him fit for this. If he can run to the level he did over hurdles last year then I think he's got a solid chance of hitting the frame at least.

James Reynolds 0.5pts e/w @ 10/1 will William Hill, Ladbrokes and Coral

Race 2

This looks like a race between Annunciate, Serenade The Stars and Wazuzu. Serenade The Stars won the opening maiden hurdle of the season at Terang and although he did comfortably enough it was a very weak contest as the exposed Crafty Lion was in 2nd. I'm happy enough to pass him over. Wazuzu bolted up by 13L in a maiden at Warrnambool last June and he ran OK in the JJ Hurdle at Ballarat in August when close up in 5th. He's run on the flat at the previous two meetings to have jumps racing this season although he's not shown a great deal. Clearly though he has been building into going back over hurdles. Ultimately though I have to be with Annunciate again. He just didn't quite have enough left to see off the late challenge of St Arnicca last week at Warrnambool, but he should be even fitter this time around and hopefully slightly less keen. Having Pateman on top isn't going to do any harm either.

Race 3

Vanguard has come over from New Zealand where he had 2 hurdle starts winning 1 and then a chase start which he also won. In that race Pierian Spring failed to finish. Since coming to Australia he has had a couple of flat starts here and at Warrnambool finishing close 2nds on both occasions. He also had American In Paris and My King's Counsel both well behind that day. I know this is a different sphere, but clearly he is in very good heart and I think he's the one to beat especially as the jumping form of his rivals doesn't set an overly high bar for him to beat. American In Paris does look the most likely danger as he was 2^nd last week to Britannicus at Warrnambool. The other concern is he has finished 2^nd on 6 out of his 10 starts over jumps winning just once.

Both Annunciate and Vanguard are odds on so I will take them in a double.

Annunciate/Vanguard 1pt double @ 2.3/1 with Coral and Ladbrokes

blueboy199 · April 1, 2022

Boreham Wood v Woking

Just the one bet in the National League and this is the live game. I know Boreham Wood are hard to beat at home, but they just aren't playing as well in recent weeks as they had been and it really does seem like the long season has caught up with them. Woking have shown some decent form since sacking their manager and this is new boss Darren Sarll's first game in charge after he left Yeovil to join them. The home side should be favourites, but there is some juice in the price of an away win.

Curzon Ashton v Spennymoor

I know Curzon have played 2 of the best teams in the division the last twice, but they have conceded 9 goals against Gateshead and Kidderminster. They have only won 2 of their last 10 games and I don't think they have been playing that well of late. Granted Spennymoor haven't won in 4, but they have had good draws against Kidderminster and Brackley last Saturday where they had a higher xG (albeit a missed penalty was part of that) and they created plenty of chances in the 2^nd half before scoring an equaliser late on. They look in better shape than their hosts at the moment and look a decent price.

Billericay v Chippenham

Chippenham are still just about in the play-off hunt, but they are very in and out and away from home they are mainly out having picked up just 1 point in their last 5 games on the road. Meanwhile Billericay are in rude health at the moment with just one defeat in 7 and a creditable draw against Havant & Waterlooville last week. I think they can get back to winning ways here.

Braintree v Hampton & Richmond

Staying in Essex and I have to back Braintree again. A couple of months ago you would never have thought that Braintree would end up above Hampton in the table come April, but that is what has happened. Hampton didn't muster a single shot on goal against Dartford last week and Braintree ought to be stronger favourites for me in this.

Hemel Hempstead v Chelmsford

I'm more than happy to keep on opposing Chelmsford after they lost yet again last week. Hemel are on a great run of form at home having won 5 of their last 6 at home. Again it's hard to understand why they aren't shorter price favourites to win this.

Maidstone v Havant & Waterlooville

I know Maidstone are top and keep getting results, but I just can't make Havant as big a price as they are for this. They are unbeaten in 7 games themselves and they have been better away from home for most of the season. They look the value play here.

East Thurrock v Merstham

3 bets in the Isthmian League to round of the tips. East Thurrock are giving themselves a right chance of staying up at the moment and Merstham are on a bad run of form so I like the home win here.

Kingstonian v Carshalton

I went to watch Carshalton v Hornchurch last week and it was a very comfortable afternoon for the away side as they won 5-0 and they weren't extended at all. Recent results had suggested that Carshalton had all but given up for the season and that is very much how they played last week. Kingstonian were in title contention and then went on such a bad run of form they wont even finish in the play-offs, but they coming out of the other end of it now and they really ought to be too strong here.

Leatherhead v Cray

A big game down at the bottom here and I'm not sure why Leatherhead aren't favourites for it. They have won 3 out of their last 4 and although Neil Smith has come in as Cray boss I'm not sure how much he is actually going to be able to improve them at this late stage of the season. The home side look a big price for me.

Woking 1pt @ 29/10 with William Hill and Skybet (take up to 9/4)

Spennymoor 1pt @ 7/4 with William Hill (take up to 11/8)

Billericay 1pt @ 11/8 with William Hill (take up to 11/10)

Braintree 2pts @ 29/20 with William Hill (take up to 11/10)

Hemel Hempstead 3pts @ 6/4 with Bet365 (take up to Evs)

Havant & Waterlooville 1pt @ 100/30 with Paddy Power and Betfair (take up to 11/5)

East Thurrock 1pt @ 7/5 with Paddy Power, Betfair and William Hill (take up to 11/10)

Kingstonian 2.5pts @ Evs with everyone apart from 365 (take up to 4/6)

Leatherhead 1.5pts @ 19/10 with Paddy Power and Betfair (take up to 11/8)

kensland · March 31, 2022

52 minutes ago, EviL ZippY said:

BOOM son!
i got 11/1 at Lads with the boost button, cracking win, real pleased for you ?

Thank you that was some performance and well worth getting up and watching it live! Looking forward to seeing how she gets on out of maiden company.

BBBC · March 30, 2022

Some of you might remember that I have a share in a filly in Australia and she has the first start of her 2nd prep on Thursday morning at Kyneton (R3 4.30am). I think she has a decent chance at a double figure price and here are my thoughts on the leading contenders.

Belle Et Riche - 3^rd on debut at Moe last August wasn't a bad race with the winner winning at Moonee Valley since and the 4^th won on its next start. That was on a Heavy 9 but seems to handle quicker ground based on her jump outs.

Kashmere Star - Good 3^rd on debut at Mornington in November behind an impressive winner who had been running in Group races.

Let Fly - Was 2^nd on her debut last April, but then not so good in her next two starts. Returned this prep with a fast finishing 2^nd over course and distance 2 weeks ago. If she can repeat that effort then has a big chance here.

Whywhywhydeliah - Was sent off fav on debut, but was disappointing. Stepped up on that on her 2^nd start when 3^rd 3 weeks later.

Beneficio - She has progressed well since her last prep and was impressive when winning a jumpout recently. Usually she would have had a trial after that, but she's in such good form that the trainer has decided to send her straight to a race instead. The downside is she has drawn the outside stall, but she has so much speed from the gates that I think she will be able to track across without using too much energy up. The only other speed in the race from what I can see will come from Excela Bella who is actually drawn inside her so they might be able to come over together. She was a bit disappointing at Ballarat on the final start of her first prep, but she didn't seem to let herself down on the ground that day and the close 2^nd over course and distance was a top class effort. On that effort she has a great e/w chance here.

Verdict - I think the winner will come from the above 5 and I do think Beneficio is over priced at 10/1. The question will be if she can hold off the finishers in the final furlong, but at the very least I think she can finish in the first 3. I can see why Belle Et Riche is favourite, but I think Let Fly is the one who can take this out. He has the benefit from a recent race and clearly course and distance suits well based on that 2^nd a couple of weeks ago. Obviously I hope Beneficio will be able to hold on, but if Let Fly repeats her finishing effort from a couple of weeks ago then she might just lose her maiden tag.

Let Fly @ 11/4 with Paddy Power, William Hill, Betfair and Coral

Beneficio e/w @ 10/1 with everyone apart from William Hill

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