[Non-League Predictions > November 27th]

I didn't have time to write any previews today but a couple of my picks are still value.

Bromley 1pt to beat Wrexham @ 11/4 with Betfred (take up to 2/1)

Boreham Wood 1pt to beat Grimsby @ 23/10 with Skybet, William Hill, BetVictor and Betfred (take up to 15/8)

 

[Non-League Ante Post 2021/22]

I am going to add a couple of ante-post bets to the portfolio. Only Bet365 and Hills have Step 3 priced up so this are only available if you can get on with them. First of all as I mention above Hayes look set to win the Southern Premier South title and 365 still have them at 6/4 (11/10 with Hills). I think that price is too big and they ought to be odds on already. We already have Farnborough covered so hopefully they can pick up some place money, but backing Hayes now ought to cover the other bets.

 

The other bet comes in the Southern Premier Central. To me this looks a 3 horse race with Coalville, Peterborough Sports and Banbury looking a step above the rest. We already have the first two covered so I am going to add Banbury whose price of 8/1 with Bet365 (7/1 with Hills 1/5 odds) makes little sense. They have played 13 league games and have won 11, drawn twice and obviously haven't been beaten yet. They are 1 point behind Sports who have played 14 games and 4 points behind leaders Coalville who have played 16 games. I just don't see how they can be available to back at an e/w price still and this comes after a great 4-0 win at Tamworth on Tuesday night. Coalville are 5/2 and Sports are 6/5 and in my view they should be around 5/2 as well. It would take a monumental drop off in form for them not to finish in the top 3 and at the very least the e/w part of the bet should show a profit.

 

Hayes & Yeading 2pts @ 6/4 with Bet365

Banbury 1pt e/w @ 8/1 with Bet365

[FA Cup Predictions > Nov 16th & 17th]

There was nothing that I fancied strongly enough in the games. I backed Stockport in the first game, but they were lucky to get a draw as Bolton outplayed them so they are probably slightly over priced. Like I say though I don't fancy them enough to get involved.

[Racing Chat - Saturday 6th November]

5 hours ago, ipswich45 said:

Couple of races at Flemington i like in the early hours

02.15 Flemington   Queen Elizabeth Stakes Group 3 (2600m)  -  #2 Sound 7/1 Bet365
small field of 6 for this race and #1 Warning will probably go off the favourite having won at Randwick on the 16th October over 2600m winning by 0.3 length and has won twice from 7 starts this season and has won over C&D previously, #2 Sound may not immediatly jump out as a main contender however has placed in 3 from 8 this season including a narrowly beaten 3rd place last time at Mooney Valley over 2500m in the Mooney Valley Cup and did run on into 3rd so the 100m extra distance maybe the key, #3 Dr Drill led until the end on latest start at Geelong beaten by half a length that was over 2400m and has 4 places from 8 starts this campaign the extra 200m could be a worry for this horse and last win was 77 weeks ago, #4 Lunar Flare comes into this seeking a hat trick following victories over 2400m at Mornington and 2500m at Mooney Valley in the cup beating Sound that day and prior to those wins were two 2nd place efforts at Flemington and Pakenham on the synthetic respectively but has had 1 race over C&D and didnt place,, #5 Wentwood narrow last time out winner at Bendigo over 2500m 9 days ago and has won over C&D but that was nearly 12 months ago and may go well if theres little pace early on, #6 Hezashocka will probably be out of its depth here having been beaten by nearly 10 lengths in the 2 starts so far this season won 4 starts ago (21 weeks) over 2100m at Ellerslie 

05.30 Flemington   Chatham Stakes  Group 3 (1400m)  -  #11 Chaillot   3/1 Bet365
#2 Sinawaan starts in Australia for the first time after a 16 week break following moving from Ireland, last race was at Leopardstown finishing 3rd beaten only 0.1 lengths, #4 Dice Roll has 3 wins this season from 7 starts and has won over C&D but does need to overcome being drawn wide and put behind a disappointing last start at Caulfield finishing 11th beaten 14 lengths over 1600m so back down in trip, #5 Justacanta won at Flemington 6 days ago over a shorter trip of 1200m but has also won over 1400m here and should go well again, #11 Chaillot has won three times over C&D was 7th last week at Flemington but only 1.75 lenghts behind the winner puts this runner also into the mix

Just to say that the Aussie season starts on August 1st and what you will usually find is that horses will run in the Spring and then again in the Autumn. So for example Warning has run just 3 times this prep. 

I don't have anything myself, but we should see Nature Strip hack up in the Sprint Classic and it will be interesting what Zaaki does in Mackinnon after he had to be scratched on the morning of the Cox Plate.

[FA Cup Predictions > Nov 5th - 8th]

AFC Sudbury v Colchester (Friday night BBC2)

Colchester's recent record in the FA Cup is shocking as they haven't won a game in the competition for 5 seasons. Last year they were dumped out by Marine on penalties which was a fully deserved victory for the Step 4 side and I think there is a chance another Step 4 team could beat them here. Sudbury have only lost once in the league this season and although they lost 3-0 in the FA Trophy last weekend you can forgive them that given the importance of this game. Colchester aren't exactly doing well in the league either having won just 2 of their last 9 league matches. They did win last week although that was against bottom side Scunthorpe and I don't think they will fancy this at all especially given their recent FA Cup record.

 

Hayes & Yeading v Sutton

Hayes are having an incredible season so far having won 9 of their 10 league games whilst drawing the other. They have scored 29 goals and conceded just 7 which is seriously impressive. They are still in the FA Trophy and the League Cup so they haven't lost in any competition yet. Obviously this is their toughest test to date, but they also have a good recent FA Cup record and pushed Carlisle very close in the 1st round last season. Sutton are having a solid 1st season in the Football League, but they have lost 3 of their last 4 and the one victory was against bottom side Scunthorpe. Hayes are capable of causing an upset here.

 

Lincoln v Bowers & Pitsea

It was a big surprise when Bowers & Pitsea managed to beat Aldershot to get through to the 1st Round as although Aldershot are not having a good season, neither are Bowers and they are 2 leagues below them. That means they are 4 steps below their hosts here and Lincoln should really win this with ease. Lincoln are in reasonable form in League 1 having only lost 1 in their last 6 and odds against them covering the -2 handicap looks well worth taking.

 

Yate v Yeovil

Yate seem to be on fire at the moment. I thought they might be vulnerable on Tuesday against Salisbury, but they ended up running out very easy 5-2 winners. In the league they are now unbeaten in 5 and they have won 4 of them. They beat Dover in the previous round and although Yeovil are better than Dover I certainly think that Yate could well cause another upset. Yeovil's form has improved although I still remain a bit unconvinced by them and I think they have benefitted more from teams underperforming rather than them being so good themselves. I wouldn't want to chase the price down too much, but there is value in the home win given the form they are in at the moment.

 

Banbury v Barrow (ITV4 Saturday 5.15pm)

I mentioned Hayes who are unbeaten in the Southern Premier League South and Banbury are the same in the Southern Premier League Central. Again like Hayes they are unbeaten in all competitions as well (even when resting a lot of players in the League Cup on Tuesday night). They got through to the 1st Round last year but blew it after losing to Canvey Island. They are a better team this time around and in front of a big crowd on TV I think they have a real chance of causing an upset. Barrow haven't won in 5 league games now and I don't think they will fancy a game like this at all.

 

Bolton v Stockport (Sunday 3pm)

Dave Challinor will be looking to make an instant impact as Stockport manager as they travel to a Bolton side who aren't in good form in the league at the moment. They have only picked up one point in their last 5 games and as I mentioned on Saturday when backing them against Dover, Stockport have got a fantastic squad that have just been underperforming. They now have the right man in charge and I can see them pushing Bolton very close here especially with the added new manager boost.

 

Dagenham & Redbridge v Salford (Monday 7.45pm ITV4)

If this game had been played prior to Dagenham's last 6 matches they would have been much shorter for this game, but that just means we are getting better value in my view. They have lost 4 of those 6 matches, but they were much better against Chesterfield on Saturday, especially in the first half. Salford have lost 5 of their 6 away games in League 2 and if Dagenham are at their best I think they will win this.

 

FA Cup Acca

There are four games where I can't see an upset happening and so I will put them into an acca. Walsall to win at Kings Lynn, Carlisle to beat Horsham, AFC Wimbledon to beat Guiesely and Shrewsbury to win at Stratford in a game which is live on ITV4 at 3pm on Sunday. It pays nearly 5/1 with Skybet, but I will use the next best with the bigger bookies of 4.4/1 with Betfair to record it.

 

AFC Sudbury 1pt @ 7/1 with Bet365 (take up to 5/1)

Hayes & Yeading 1pt @ 8/1 with Bet365 (take up to 9/2)

Lincoln -2 2pts @ 5/4 with Bet365 (take up to 4/5)

Yate 1pt @ 17/4 with Skybet (7/2 with Bet365) (take up to 3/1)

Banbury 1pt @ 11/2 with Bet365 (take up to 100/30)

Stockport 1pt @ 9/2 with William Hill (4/1 with Bet365) (take up to 11/4)

Dagenham & Redbridge 1pt @ 14/5 with Bet365 (take up to 2/1)

Walsall/Carlisle/AFC Wimbledon/Shrewsbury 1pt @ 3.4/1 with Betfair (4/1 with Skybet and take up to 5/2)

[Horse Racing Chat - Tuesday 2nd November (Melbourne Cup)]

What a race and what a superb ride and performance from a magnificent mare. She is a top class racehorse who it would be great to see come over to Europe for the arc. 3 out of the first 4 home for the preview as well so it’s been a very profitable morning. Now time for some sleep.

[Horse Racing Chat - Tuesday 2nd November (Melbourne Cup)]

7 hours ago, Darran said:

I've had a look at the other races on the card leading up to the Melbourne Cup if you are staying up like I am. These are the ones I will be backing to small stakes.

R1 - Mainly 2yo newcomers so skipping this one

R2 - Those of you who read my Australian jumping previews might remember a horse called Wil John who I was a huge fan of over after he really impressed me winning a maiden hurdle. He is a classy horse over hurdles, but has improved his flat form as well as he won a good race at Caulfield last month. This is tougher, but I think he can win again.

R3 - This is a race just for grey horses and I will cover Excelman, Naval Envoy and Address Melbourne.

R4 - Lord Vladivostok, Milton Park and a small e/w bet on the outsider Hang Man.

R5 - The front two against the field for me, Frankie Pinot and Blondeau.

R6 - Profiteer and Super Thief in the race before the big one.

Good morning so far. Wil John was disappointing, but had the first two in the next, the winner in the 4th, 2nd and 3rd in the 5th and the winner in the 6th. Hopefully bodes well for an hours time.

[Horse Racing Chat - Tuesday 2nd November (Melbourne Cup)]

I've had a look at the other races on the card leading up to the Melbourne Cup if you are staying up like I am. These are the ones I will be backing to small stakes.

R1 - Mainly 2yo newcomers so skipping this one

R2 - Those of you who read my Australian jumping previews might remember a horse called Wil John who I was a huge fan of over after he really impressed me winning a maiden hurdle. He is a classy horse over hurdles, but has improved his flat form as well as he won a good race at Caulfield last month. This is tougher, but I think he can win again.

R3 - This is a race just for grey horses and I will cover Excelman, Naval Envoy and Address Melbourne.

R4 - Lord Vladivostok, Milton Park and a small e/w bet on the outsider Hang Man.

R5 - The front two against the field for me, Frankie Pinot and Blondeau.

R6 - Profiteer and Super Thief in the race before the big one.

[Breeders Cup 2021 5th & 6th November]

Racing TV are also showing it this year.

[Horse Racing Chat - Tuesday 2nd November (Melbourne Cup)]

This year sees just two horses from Europe head down for the race that stops a nation although there are plenty who started their careers over here. Due to that I don't think the race is as strong as it has been in recent years, but what we might see is one of the best horses to ever win the race with Incentivise a short price favourite to land the Cup. Here are my thoughts on every runner in race and just to note that Delphi and Future Score need to be cleared by the vet before 7.30am Australian time.

 

Twilight Payment - It is very hard to win a Melbourne Cup from the front especially when you set a really strong gallop, but Twilight Payment did just that last year. No doubt he will try and do the same thing again and you have to say that he is in good form again as he won the Irish St Leger Trial in August and was then 2nd in the race itself a month later. The problem is he now has 12 more lbs to carry and no horse his age has ever won the Melbourne Cup. Given the depth to this isn't as strong as it usually is though he has a fair chance of hitting the frame again.

 

Incentivise - Started his career just over a year ago finishing 9th at Ipswich and then had a break until March when he finished 6th and then a well beaten 8th at Toowoomba. I think it's fair to say no one saw him as a future Melbourne Cup winner at that stage. He has since won 9 races on the bounce as he has risen through the grades in Queensland and Melbourne. It is 3 Grade 1's on the bounce as well after impressive wins in the Makybe Diva, the Turnbull and the Caulfield Cup. It really was a devastating performance at Caulfield last time and he never looked in a moments danger. I have seen it suggested that he isn't bred to stay the trip and that he is bred to stay it so who knows what to believe on that front. He certainly wasn't stopping over 1m4f at Caulfield and although this is likely to be a strongly run 2m he looks like he might well stay. The fact this isn't a strong Melbourne Cup depth wise will help him as well and I certainly think he would have won the Cox Plate last week. The fact his trainer decided to wait for this suggests he thinks he will stay as well. He is set to start the shortest price favourite since Phar Lap in 1930, but he deserves to be the price he is on form. He was only given a 4lb penalty for winning at Caulfield and I think that was generous. It is hard to see how those who finished behind him at Caulfield can reverse the form and he will ultimately be very hard to beat.

 

Spanish Mission - The only UK trained runner in the race and the only other horse to be in single figures in the betting. There certainly isn't any question marks about his stamina having won the Yorkshire Cup in May before finishing 3rd in the Gold Cup. After that he pushed Stradivarius close in the Lonsdale Cup and he clearly has the class to run very well in this. He has a great chance of hitting the frame I think, but he will need a strong pace so it turns into more of a staying contest as for me that will be his only chance of beating the favourite.

 

Verry Elleegant - Last year's Caulfield Cup winner and the horse who has enjoyed some great battles with Addeybb in the last couple of years. She was disappointing when only 4th to Incentivise in the Turnbull, but she bounced back to finish 3rd in the Cox Plate last week. She had to come from a long way back that day and did it round the outside compared to the front two who were on the inside. I think you could easily argue that she was the best horse in the race and that 1m2f at Moonee Valley probably wouldn't see her at her best. She was 7th in this last year, but she was finishing to great effect having been 19th 4f out and 16th 2f out. She doesn't have a great draw in 19, but you would hope that James McDonald would be able to sit closer to the pace this time around. People think she needs soft ground to be at her best, but the track was a Good 3 last year as it is likely to be this year so that doesn't worry me at all. I'm not sure she will reverse form with Incentivise, but she is better than she showed that day and I think she has a great chance of hitting the frame. 

 

Explosive Jack - Won 3 derbies earlier in the year so stamina shouldn't be an issue and he also ran OK in the Turnbull, but he was awful in the Caulfield Cup last time so it is hard to give him much of a chance here.

 

The Chosen One - Was a very good 4th in this last year after finishing 3rd in the Caulfield Cup, but this year he was only 14th at Caulfield. Damian Lane felt that wasn't his true running though and he does seem to do better on a better surface. He was a good 2nd to Delphi in the Herbert Power the time before and it could be he didn't handle the 7 day back up. The problem I have though is he didn't quite see it out last year so I find it hard to see him improving on that run this time around.

 

Delphi - I was very impressed with his Herbert Power win, but he was very average in the Caulfield Cup a week later. He had the same run as Incentivise as well so there was no real excuse apart from he didn't handle the 7 day back up. I fancied him at Caulfield, but can't really have him here.

 

Ocean Billy - Landed the Auckland Cup in March and ran OK in the Caulfield Cup when running on into 9th. He probably isn't good enough to win, but we know he stays the trip and he gets the ground enjoys here which he didn't at Caulfield. An unlikely winner, but if he finished in the top 6 it wouldn't be the biggest surprise.

 

Selino - Won the Sydney Cup earlier in the year and ran OK in the Bert Cummings when 4th behind Grand Promenade. He wasn't so good in the Caulfield Cup last time though and he's hard to fancy.

 

Johnny Get Angry - Won the Derby here a year ago, but has basically been hopeless since. Apparently did work well with all the gear he had been running in after being well beaten in the Geelong Cup, but even so its hard to make a case for him.

 

Knights Order - Impressively won the Brisbane Cup earlier this year and likely to be up with the pace, but he's been pretty rubbish since was easily beaten by Great House on Saturday.

 

Persan - Was a very good 5th in this on the back of a tough prep so reason to think he might be capable of better this time around now he has been aimed at the race. The problem is he had every chance in the Caulfield Cup last time and although he was 3rd you would be hard pushed to think he could reverse the form with the winner. He does enjoy Flemington though so can see another good performance.

 

Carif - Would be a very surprising winner although does stay the trip.

 

Master Of Wine - 3rd in the Bart Cummings stands out like a sore thumb compared to the rest of his form and he wouldn't be for me.

 

Pondus - 2nd in the Curragh Cup on his last start in Ireland before moving to Australia permanently having had a couple of starts last year when still with Joseph O'Brien. Ran a really solid race 1st up in the Bart Cummings when 5th, but I was a bit disappointed with him in the Moonee Valley Cup last time albeit was a messy contest. This race might suit him better though and could hit the frame.

 

Grand Promenade - Landed the Bart Cummings last time ahead of a few of these which saw him gain entry for this. He has a very good record at this track and does have a similar profile to his stablemate Persan. The question mark though is if he will be good enough as he has never been above G3 company yet and he is usually a front runner which could be tricky from his stall. He does have the right man on top though in Kerrin McEvoy so a bold showing wouldn't surprise although I would be a bit surprised if he was good enough to win.

 

Miami Bound - Hard to make any case for her.

 

Port Guillaume - An example of an European who has seemingly gone backwards since moving to Australia. Was lame after the Caulfield Cup so at least had some sort of excuse for the poor effort, but he hasn't done a great deal to think he will suddenly win this.

 

She's Ideal - Didn't run too badly in the Caulfield Cup last time when 7th as she was probably racing in the worst of the ground. Did have a good win a over 10f 3 starts back in a G3 at Randwick and was 4th in the Sydney Cup when staying on well after missing the start. I can see her running a decent enough race, but I struggle to see her being good enough.

 

Future Score - Was purchased from the very shrewd Horse Watchers after winning at Pontefract for them back in 2018 to run in this contest. Although he didn't make to this race before this year he was done pretty well over in Australia and he looks like he has been crying out for 2m. The problem is he doesn't look as good as he was and has been no more than average in his starts so far this prep. I'd love to see him run well as I've followed him closely since his move to Australia, but he just hasn't been running well enough to make me want to back him even at a huge price.

 

Tralee Rose - Has been in good form so far this prep and was a good winner of the Geelong Cup last time after finishing 2nd to Grand Promenade in the Bart Cummings. Her only try over 2m was in the Adelaide Cup and she was 4th at odds on, but there is every chance she had enough for that prep and needed to spelled.  The Geelong Cup wasn't a strong race this year, but she only has 8-0 to carry, has a very good record at Flemington and looks to be peaking at the right time.

 

Floating Artist - Got up to a mark of 105 in the UK when with Richard Hannon, but I do think he has improved since moving to Australia and won his first 3 races in the country. He probably really ought to be unbeaten as he hasn't been given the best of rides the last twice especially in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup last time where he just failed to get up having got no sort of run. Usually that race doesn't stack up in this, but in a weaker than usual year he could well run well with no weight at all on his back. There is a slight query about the trip, but if he has improved from his UK form, which I think he has, then that might not be a problem.

 

Great House - Has been very busy since coming to Australia, but has carried on improving and continues to run well. He was a good 5th in the Caulfield Cup and then was well on top at the line on Saturday in the Hotham, despite the small winning margin. That was not a strong race at all and although the double has been done before and Prince Of Arran was placed after winning the contest in 2018, its never an ideal prep. I think connections only ran on Saturday to make sure they got in this and ideally they would have skipped it. Even so he looks like the trip will be ideal and he has no weight so wouldn't be a shock winner.

 

Sir Lucan - Northern Hemisphere 3yos have a good recent record in this contest and although he wouldn't appear to be as good as those two winners he doesn't have to carry as much weight as they did. He was awful in the St Leger last time, but the ground was pretty bad that day and every chance he didn't enjoy that. The rest of his form certainly gives him a chance off a weight like this.

 

Verdict - I have it down to 9 horses who I think are capable of running into the first 4, Twilight Payment, Incentivise, Spanish Mission, Verry Elleegant, Pondus, Tralee Rose, Floating Artist, Great House and Sir Lucan. As for the winner, quite simply if Incentivise sees out the trip then I don't see anything beating him and he has to be the main selection. I'm very surprised that Verry Elleegant seems to have been overlooked by everyone and no one seems to fancy her, but she ran a huge race last year and in the weaker renewal I think she can hit the frame. Her trainer has come out and said it is a myth she needs a wet track and I agree with him. Floating Artist could easily be coming into this looking for a 6th consecutive win and I'm pretty certain he has improved since going to Australia. He has no weight and looks a decent chance. Tralee Rose just misses out as I am going to make Sir Lucan the 4th pick. The record of 3yos from the UK and Ireland has been strong and as I mention in the preview he's not as good as the two winners, but his weight reflects that and connections have been very happy with him since he arrived in Australia.

 

1st Incentivise @ 2/1 with William Hill and Betfred

2nd Verry Ellegant e/w @ 16/1 with William Hill (5 places) or 14/1 with Paddy Power for 6 places

3rd Floating Artist e/w @ 12/1 with Boylesports (6 places) and same price with bookies who are 5 places

4th Sir Lucan e/w @ 20/1 with Betfred (5 places) or 16/1 with Paddy Power for 6 places

 

NB If placing your bet with Bet365 they use Australian place terms so they are only the first 3. As per usual they do have a UK book to 4 places and it is well hidden. If you go to International on the horse racing page and then click on Tuesday the UK place terms market is there.

[Racing Chat - Monday 1st November]

Sadly beneficio only beat one home and didn’t show the usual her fight in the finish but the jockey reported she didn’t let herself down on the quick ground so at least there was a reason behind the effort. She is certainly better than she was able to show. Not sure she would have beaten the front two anyway who look very useful especially the winner.

[Racing Chat - Monday 1st November]

I will be up with a Melbourne Cup preview at some point tomorrow, but the horse I have a share in, Beneficio, runs in the first race at Ballarat on Monday morning. Race is due off at 2am and will be on Racing.com. Here are the 4 runners I think have a winning chance.

 

Nice For What - This time last year she made her debut in a G3 at Flemington and finished 2nd. She was spelled after that and ran a couple of times in Sydney to finish 4th in a Listed contest and 7th in a G2. She was spelled again and returned in a maiden at Cranbourne in September where she was beaten into 2nd place. She was upped to group company again later that month in a G3 at Moonee Valley, but she was caught 4 wide and it was a forgive run. She has clearly dropped down again into maiden company to try and win a race, but its not the easiest maiden they could have found. She has an outside draw as well so it will be interesting to see if they push on with her again as they did at The Valley or just settle her in behind. Clearly has ability and already won a fair bit of prize money despite still yet to win a race.

 

Sistine Explorer - Showed promise in her first prep as a 2yo when flying home late to finish 2nd at Geelong on debut over 1140m and then went to Flemington where she was hampered leaving the start and it seemed to light her up as she was then very keen. Even so it was a very solid 4th. That was back in June and she had a jump out, which she won, on the 25th to set her up for this. The 1000m trip could be a query given how well she finished on debut, but that could also have been greenness and she clearly has a good level of ability.

 

Whywhywhydelilah - Has just had the one jumpout at Flemington so far, but she showed good speed and has already shortened in the market for this. The problem is she has the widest draw of all and she will have to be pretty smart to win this which to be fair she might well be.

 

Beneficio - Clearly given the speed she has the drop down to 1000m is going to be right up her street and although a draw of 8 is a little higher then ideal, I expect her to be able to break sharply and be able to get across and lead them. This is a stronger race than I would have liked as clearly we have one horse who has performed with credit in group races, one who has run well in the city and a debutant who clearly has ability. What I will say though is I saw some footage of her in the week and she looked in really good shape. She hasn't had an issue since her last race and she has come on again for it. The form of her debut 4th was boosted when the 3rd went and won a maiden on her next start and the time of the race last time was very good. I think she has run against horses who have a lot of potential and although this won't be easy I think she could be hard to catch in front. 

 

Verdict - If pushed for a likely winner I would probably go with Sistine Explorer, but I think Beneficio is the one who is over priced in the market and I fancy her to finish in at least the first 3 again, but dropping down to a 1000m I think she will have a good chance of lasting home this time. The winner is likely to come from one of those four mentioned although De Long Star wouldn't be a total shock.

 

Beneficio e/w 15/2 with Betfred

[Non-League Predictions > October 30th]

Yeah Aldershot could have grabbed a point but it wouldn’t have been deserved as Barnet were the better team overall. A cracking day after some tough results in recent weeks.

[Non-League Predictions > October 30th]

Barnet v Aldershot (Live on BT Sport)

Barnet were played off the park by Wrexham last Saturday and then went and beat Stockport on Tuesday night whilst Wrexham lost to Maidenhead. Proof that football will always throw up seemingly random results. That was Barnet's worse performance since Dean Brennan took over as manager though and I think it was just unfortunate it came against a Wrexham side who were at their best. I think they have a decent chance of beating an Aldershot side who are struggling for wins even if they do seem to be improving. They were heavily backed to beat Weymouth on Tuesday night and although the price ended up way too short I could see why people thought they would win as the Weymouth manager complained about how tired his players were after the draw against Wealdstone last Saturday. For Aldershot to fail to score against them wasn't great and their xG was low as well. What I will say is they have lost all 6 home league games now and they have performed better away from home, but even so there is no way they should be favourites for this game and Barnet are a massive price.

 

Weymouth v Kings Lynn

Although Weymouth have only won once at home against Maidenhead their 2 defeats came against Boreham Wood and Stockport and they have managed a draw against Notts County as well. I mentioned above that they were looking tired last Saturday, but they rested some key players on Tuesday night so they were able to freshen some players up whilst also managing to win. I think they should be slightly shorter in the betting here. Amazingly Kings Lynn have had more possession in 10 of their 12 league games, but their problem is they often don't have enough quality in the final 3rd to take advantage of seeing so much of the ball. They had nearly 70% of the ball against Boreham Wood on Tuesday night yet could only manage an xG of 0.9 compared to Wood's 1.79 and they lost 1-0. Only 3 times this season has their xG been higher than their opponents and that for me puts things in Weymouth's favour here.

 

Hungerford v Maidstone (National League South)

Just the one bet at Step 2 this weekend and I think the home side are overpriced here. I put Maidstone up last week and they lost 2-0 to Dorking and after a 0-0 draw at Dulwich on Tuesday night that meant they haven't scored in their last 3 league games now. You just get the sense they are in a bit of a sticky patch and this will be a tough game. Hungerford were having a cracking season last time around and they have been able to pretty much carry that into this one as well. 3 of their 4 league wins have come against the weaker sides in the league, but they have beaten Dorking and drew against Havant on Tuesday night. At home I just can't make them anywhere near as big as they are to win this and look fair value.

 

Barnet 2pts @ 2/1 with Skybet and BetVictor (take up to 11/10)

Weymouth 1pt @ 8/5 with Bet365 and William Hill (take up to 5/4)

Hungerford 2pts @ 11/5 with Betfair, Paddy Power and William Hill (take up to 6/4)

[Racing Chat - Saturday 30th October]

No time for any write ups but I have bets in 4 races at Rosehill and day 1 of the Melbourne Cup carnival at Flemington.

Rosehill

R6 - Masked Crusader, Gytrash

R7 - I'm Thunderstruck, Ellsberg, Maximal

 

Flemington

R2 - Great House

R6 - Forget You

[EFL Trophy - Oct 26]

Yates had said prior to the game that it would be the youth team playing as they had already been knocked out.

[Non-League Predictions > October 26th]

Slough v Bath (National League South)

I don't really understand the prices here as Bath have been very poor in the league of late and have conceded 20 goals in their last 7 league games having lost 6 of them. Granted Slough have been just as bad and their only victory until Saturday had come on the opening day of the season. That win on Saturday though was a good one against Havant and it was a good performance. They had lost to Billericay in their previous game and they were probably a bit unlucky to do so. With performances on the improve I think that they can beat a Bath side who are really lacking in confidence right now given they are conceding goals for fun and only scored more than 1 goal once in the league. Slough should be favourites.

 

Biggleswade v Leiston (Southern League Premier Central)

You have to wonder how Biggleswade managed to score 7 goals in consecutive games because in the following three games they haven't managed one and in the three games prior they also didn't score one. Leiston are having a very good season and have only lost twice in their last 8 games. One of those was against unbeaten Banbury and they had a very good win over Tamworth on Saturday. I think they should be odds on to win this as they are a much better side.

 

Harrow v Gosport (Southern League Premier South)

I think Harrow are a shade of value here against Gosport. They should have scored more than 2 on Saturday against bottom side Wimborne. They have won 6 of their last 7 and I think they can pick up another victory here. Gosport did win on Saturday at Truro, but they were a bit fortunate and that came on the back of two defeats. I would make the home side clear favourites so there is a spot of value in the price.

 

Slough 2pts @ 7/5 with Paddy Power, William Hill and Betfair (take up to 5/4)

Leiston 2.5pts @ 23/20 with Betfred, William Hill and BetVictor (take up to 4/5)

Harrow 1pt @ 9/5 with BetVictor (take up to 5/4)

[Non-League Predictions > October 23rd]

Horsham v Bishops Stortford (Isthmian Premier)

Horsham were another of the sides who you wouldn't have fancied to win in the FA Cup last weekend and they actually beat a decent side in Woking. They have only won once in the league and they have been pretty awful although I should point out they got a couple of draws against Lewes and Bognor which were good efforts. Like Bowers they also lost on Tuesday night, 2-0 to Cheshunt and they are now also playing a team bang in form. Only Worthing have beaten Bishops Stortford in their last 8 league games and they are a decent side who should be around the play-offs. Again on current league performances the away side should really be odds on.

 

Southern Premier League South treble

Not often will I stick odds on shots in a treble, but Salisbury, Farnborough and Harrow all stood out as they face Beaconsfield, Dorchester and Wimborne and they really all ought to win. The treble pays 1.79/1.

 

Bishops Stortford 2.5pts @ 17/10 with Bet365 (take up to 5/6)

Salisbury/Farnborough/Harrow 1pt treble @ 1.79/1 with William Hill, Bet365 and Betfred (take up to 6/4)

[Racing Chat - Saturday 23rd October]

Had to survive a protest but State Of Rest lands the Cox Plate for Ireland.

[Racing Chat - Saturday 23rd October]

Zaaki has just been scratched in the Cox Plate.

[Racing Chat - Saturday 23rd October]

1 hour ago, calva decoy said:

Two Cracking write ups ?

Wasn't there a big Group 1 in Oz this morning ?

Good luck with tired horses on very testing ground at both Donny & Newbury , maybe worth laying Luxembourg in the Vertuem & at Cheltenham some horses will need the run & others will have bigger fish to fry throughout the season but Nigel Twiston Davies will have any of his well readied .

 

Yep the manikato was on this morning although not a strong race given all the good 1200m horses ran in the Everest last week.

[Racing Chat - Saturday 23rd October]

7.10am is the off time for the biggest WFA race in Australia, the Cox Plate. Just the 9 are set to line up after Gold Trip was scratched on Friday morning, but it looks a fascinating contest. You can watch the action online via Racing.com

Zaaki - G3 was the highest level he won at when trained by Sir Michael Stoute over here, but he has looked a different horse since going to Australia where he has won 5 times including 2 G1s. His most impressive victory so far came in the Doomben Cup in May where he won by a very impressive 7l in a decent time. He won his first two races this prep, but was only 3rd behind Probabeel in the Caulfield Stakes last time and she was reversing form from Sandown the time before. There has been a few reasons given as to why he disappointed at Caulfield although I don't really buy the ground being too quick as he won on good to firm in the UK. He clearly has a very good chance on most of the form he has shown in Australia, but this is the best race he has run in and coming off the back of that Caulfield run I just think he is too short in the betting to want to back.

Dalasan - Ran a hell of a race to finish 3rd to Addeybb and Verry Elleegant in the Queen Elizabeth back in April and would clearly have some sort of place chance on that form. Ran well enough when 3rd in the Epsom at Randwick last time as well, but would be a surprise winner.

Callsign Mav - Coming over from New Zealand, but looks to have a tough task on his hands.

Mo'unga - Trained, like Zaaki, by Annabel Neasham and she has been very sweat on his chances this week. He landed the Rosehill Guineas in March, but then disappointed a couple of times including when last in the Queen Elizabeth. Came back this prep and landed the Winx Stakes beating Verry Elleegant into 2nd place and then pushed Incentivise close in the Makybe Diva. He was 5th in the Epsom, but found himself too far back as he was still in 11th passing the 400m marker. I'm not sure he is quite good enough to win, but I can certainly see why his trainer think he has a good chance.

Verry Elleegant - Another one of the leading fancies who disappointed last time. She looked to be travelling really at Flemington in the Turnbull, but just didn't pick up at all to finish 4th behind Incentivise. I certainly think you can let her off that effort as it was basically too bad to be true as the rest of her form over the last couple of years has been top class. Not only has she landed WFA G1's, but she also won last year's Caulfield Cup. There is rain forecast and the prediction is there will be enough to take it into the soft ratings which will help her cause as well. I think she is a big player here.

Probabeel - Whereas Verry Elleegant would like the rain this mare wouldn't as all Probabeel's wins have been on good tracks. She was only 7th in this last year on a track rated a Soft 7 and was 12th in the All Star Mile here on a Soft 6. Although she took out the Caulfield Stakes over this trip last time, that was a slowly run race and I just wonder if 2000m is her optimum trip. Having said that if the ground was in the good range I probably would want something on her given her record on good tracks (she has only finished out of the first 2 twice in 17 starts and has won 12 of them).

State Of Rest - This time last year he was finishing a fairly well beaten 5th in the Vertem Futurity Trophy at Doncaster and Joseph O'Brien's runner has only been seen twice finish. First of he finished 3rd in a Listed contest at the Curragh in June and then went and won the Saratoga Derby in August stepping up to 1900m for the first time. Up another 100m in trip could bring about further improvement and unless they got more rain than forecast I don't see the ground being an issue. I think he does have to improve again, but you couldn't rule it and nothern-hemisphere 3yos have a great record in this race with a win, a 2nd and 2 3rds from 6 starters. He has e/w claims.

Anamoe - Was too strong in the Caulfield Guineas last time which was the fastest in the history of the race although I suspect the ground had probably rarely been as quick. That's not to diminish what he achieved because he is clearly a top class 3yo. I do think he has a very good chance, but there are a couple of things which put me off at the price he is. First of all he will likely be coming from the back as he is a held up horse who is drawn on the outside. Secondly there is that unknown about him at the trip and as much as he looks like he will stay you couldn't be certain. With those two things in mind I would want a bigger price about him as he could easily fly home into the places rather than into victory.

Captivant -  Anamoe has had his measure the last twice and unless the new trip makes a difference it is hard to fancy him. 

Verdict - Zaaki and Anamoe would not be surprise winners at all, but there prices seem on the short side to me given both have questions to answer. If there wasn't as much rain as forecast then I would want something e/w on Probabeel, but working on the fact it is going to be in the soft range I will back Verry Elleegant and State Of Rest. I can forgive Verry Elleegant her run last time and if she bounces back to her usual form then she will go very close. State Of Rest does have to improve, but he looked to thrive for the furthest trip he has raced over so far in America last time and he looks just the type who could go very well in this.

Verry Elleegant @ 9/2 with Bet365

State Of Rest e/w @ 17/2 with William Hill

[Non-League Predictions > October 16th]

1 hour ago, Teodore said:

@Darranwhat about from FA cup today ?

Only Chertsey offer any value still. Others I fancied have been backed in.

[Non-League Predictions > October 16th]

3 of my tips where there is still some value.

 

AFC Telford v Farsley Celtic (National League North)

Farsley fully deserved their victory over Curzon last week when I opposed them and if they carry on with that form in this game then I think they will take the 3 points. Telford beat Chorley on the opening day of the season, but they have lost every game since apart from a draw against Hereford. They sacked their manager last week, but lost to Spennymoor and then Boston beat them 4-1 on Tuesday night so little has changed on the back of the sacking. Farsley just look very over priced for this game.

 

Weston Super Mare v Salisbury (Southern Premier South)

Weston flattered to deceive again on Tuesday night when they lost 2-1 to Yate. They should be doing much better than they are and it especially seems that their home form isn't quite up to scratch. They host a Salisbury side who will have been disappointed to have drawn against Hartley Witney last week, but they continue to be in strong form and have just lost twice all season. I think they can get the better of their hosts here.

 

Southend v Chertsey

So Phil Brown has finally gone at Southend, but this isn't exactly a game they will be wanting right now as they are on a hiding to nothing really. They have yet to lose in the league this season in 5 games and are still in the FA Trophy. Again its a 3 level gap, but Southend are there for the taking at the moment.

 

Farsley Celtic 1pt @ 29/10 with William Hill (take up to 7/4)

Salisbury 1pt @ 15/8 with Skybet (take up to 11/8)

Chertsey 1pt @ 6/1 with Betfred (take up to 4/1)

[Racing Chat - Saturday 16th October]

Obviously we have British Champions Day to look forward to over here on Saturday, but there is more prize money up for grabs in The Everest alone in Australia on the same day. The Everest is the richest race run on turf in the world and is Race 7 (6.15am) at Randwick. Meanwhile at Caulfield we have the Caulfield Cup which is R8 (7.15am). The Everest will be on Sky Sports Racing and if you want to watch Caulfield then you can go to Racing.com, sign up for a free account and you will be able to watch their coverage.

 

The Everest

 

Nature Strip - His win in the T J Smith last April over course and distance marked him down as the best sprinter in the world, but then his following prep a year ago was pretty poor. He didn't win in 4 starts and was just 7th in this contest. He bounced back though this autumn when winning the Black Caviar Lightning in February at Flemington and he landed the T J Smith again beating Masked Crusader by 2L. This prep he impressively landed the G3 Concorde Stakes on his return before finishing 2nd to Eduardo in the Shorts 4 weeks ago. Interestingly he was also beaten by Eduardo in between his Lightning win and his T J Smith win earlier in the year and easily reversed the form as that one was just 3rd in the T J. He was a close 4th in this contest in 2019 so there is a concern that he has already come up short in 2 attempts, but he is certainly coming into this renewal in better form than he was last year and I'd argue he is a better horse now than he was in 2019. He's proven himself if it gets very wet and he's got a big chance and has been very well backed in the last couple of days.

 

Classique Legend - He was very good when bolting up in this race last year when favourite and if he turns up in that form then he will be hard to bear. The problem for me was he then went to Hong Kong and was a big disappointment at Sha Tin. He was going to be trained their full time, but it was decided to bring him back to Australia and aim him at this instead. That run is his only start since last year's Everest and as much as he looked good in his trials I can't help but think a lack of a prep run will stop him from winning this. I think he would need to be as good as he was last year to win and with no guarantee that he will be I will be happy to look elsewhere.

 

Eduardo - Was a well beaten 11th in this race last year, but I think he has improved since then as so far in 2021 he has won 4 of his 5 starts. The one defeat came in the T J Smith when 3rd to Nature Strip as mentioned above. I really liked the way he fought back to beat Nature Strip in the Shorts last time. Obviously he beat him in March before losing to him in the T J, but maybe his win in the Galaxy had just left it's mark so he wasn't quite at his best in the T J. This time around he's just had that one start and I certainly think he will be much closer than last year.

 

Gytrash - He was a good 3rd in this last year and he went on to win the Yes Yes Yes Stakes on a Heavy 9 which is his only start on a heavy track. He has a good record on all surfaces and on a soft track he has never been out of the first 3 in 9 starts. He was a bit disappointing in a couple of G1's in May, but I thought he ran a huge race in the Shorts behind Nature Strip and Eduardo. He tried to go for a run between the first two late on, but the gap wasn't there and he couldn't be ridden out in the final 75m. I think he might well have won if he had got a clear run as he was just getting going. His campaign has been built around this contest and given there ought to be plenty of pace in the race I think it could set things up nicely for him. At the very least I think he can equal last year's 3rd place and he could easily go two places better if building on his first time out effort.

 

Trekking - He hasn't won since The Goodwood when he beat Gytrash by a short head last May. He was 3rd in this in 2019 and 4th last year and he looks to be regressing since so I think it will be hard to equal let alone beat those two positions.

 

Masked Crusader - Has got some very good form including when winning a G2 over course and distance a couple of weeks ago, but he has tending to find himself a long way back in his races and as much as there will be a fast pace, I am not sure he is good enough to mow them all down. He was a well beaten 5th in the Shorts as well.

 

Wild Ruler - Was 2nd to Nature Strip last month on the first run of the prep and then won the G1 Moir Stakes at Moonee Valley last time just holding on from The Inferno. He is 4/5 at the track and 2/2 over course and distance, but he looks like he needs a good track and I'm not sure he will be good enough to win anyway.

 

The Inferno - Only got beaten once in 9 starts in Singapore and won a G2 at Moonee Valley on his debut in Australia. I thought he was going to go past Wild Ruler in the Moir, but his run just flattened out slightly late on. He did have to come wide that day though and the step up to 1200m should suit. Can finish in the top half, but not sure he will be good enough to hit the frame.

 

Embracer - The outsider and will be surprising if he plays a part in the finish.

 

Lost And Running - Has risen through the grades, but he was last in the Shorts and 4th to Masked Crusader last time which suggests to me he isn't up to this level yet.

 

Libertini - Has been kept fresh for this and did beat Classique Legend 1st up last October. That one did get a wide passage that day though and she then only finished 8th in this last year. Was 3rd to Masked Crusader and 8th in the T J Smith and it's hard to see her doing a great deal.

 

Home Affairs - The only 3yo in the race and he did win a Listed Race well last month, but he went from the front that day and he surely wont be able to lead the likes of Eduardo and Nature Strip here. Gets the weight concession, but I don't think he will be good enough.

 

Analysis - I really do think the winner will come from one of the top 4 in the race card as all things being equal I do think they have a little class edge on the rest of the field. None of them will surprise, but I am going to side with Gytrash e/w. A good 3rd in this last year and his 2021 has been all about setting him up for this race. I thought he was unlucky not to win the Shorts on his return and he has a good chance of reversing the form with the two who finished in front of him. At the very least I think he will finish in the 3 again and the price allows us to back him e/w. I think Nature Strip and Eduardo will follow him home in that order with Classique Legend finding the race a little tough 1st up.

 

Gytrash @ 7.5 to win and 2.35 to place with Bet365

 

Caulfield Cup

Whereas the Everest is having just it's 5th running, this will be the 145th running of the Caulfield Cup. Usually we have a few European runners in the race, but we have none this time around although there are some ex European horses in the contest. I have chosen 7 to have a closer look at in race card order.

 

Incentivise - Started his career just over a year ago finishing 9th at Ipswich and then had a break until March when he finished 6th and then a well beaten 8th at Toowoomba. If at that stage you would have said he would be a hot favourite for the Caulfield Cup you would have been taken away by the men in white coats! Since then he has won 8 on the bounce as he has worked his way through the grades both in Queensland and Melbourne the last twice where he won the Makybe Diva and the Turnbull, both G1's at Flemington. On form I think he certainly deserves to be as short as he is because he looks a top class horse, the big problem though is the draw. He has the widest stall of all which isn't great, but we have seen horses drawn wide win in recent years so if he gets a clear run then he will be very hard to beat.

 

Explosive Jack - A 3 times Derby winner having won the Tasmanian, ATC and SA versions. He clearly wants this sort of trip based on those wins as well as his runs in the Makybe Diva and the Turnbull, where he was finishing his race off to good effect. He was beaten about 4L by Incentivise in the Turnbull and carried 0.5kgs more compared to carrying 1.5kgs less here. That will certainly help, but I can't help thinking he might need a longer straight to get up a head of steam especially as he's drawn on the rail. He could well stay on to hit the frame though.

 

The Chosen One - Was a cracking 3rd in this last year and then backed that up with a 4th in the Melbourne Cup. His Autumn campaign was not so good, but he has returned in decent form this prep. Last Saturday he was 2nd to Delphi in the Herbert Power which should set him up nicely for this, although I thought the winner won very comfortably that day. His soft/heavy form doesn't look great, but he did manage a 2nd in the Sydney Cup on a Heavy 8 last year.

 

Delphi - He is a horse who you might well recognise as he landed the Irish St Leger Trial Stakes at the Curragh last August when trained by Aidan O'Brien. He then wasn't seen for 302 days before disappointing at Eagle Farm in a Listed Race. He was given another little break and has got better with each start all at Caulfield. He was 4th back in August over 1m and then just missed out to Nonconformist in a G3 over 1m2f. Then up to 1m4f last week he won hard held in the Herbert Power. Damien Oliver was very keen to ride him again in this and 52.5kgs is a struggle for him to get down to. He has won on the back of a quick run before so that shouldn't be an issue, especially as it looks like he has been trained to peak for this contest. The concern is his draw in 19, but otherwise he looks set to go close.

 

She's Ideal - She is the one of the bigger prices who I think can go well. I liked her win in the G3 Kingston Town over 2000m at Randwick last month and that looked like it would set her up nicely for this. She does come on the back of a seemingly poor run in the G1 Metropolitan 2 weeks ago though, but I think there are reasons behind that. She was drawn very wide that day and went to the back of the field. She had to deliver her charge widest of all down the straight and she stayed on nicely enough. I do want to see a wet track for her which she looks like she will get and with a much better draw in 5 I think she could hit the frame at big odds.

 

Young Werther - He has only won once, but has run some huge races in defeat. He was 2nd to Explosive Jack in the ATC Derby and last time was a 1/2L 2nd to Incentivise in the Turnbull. On that run he is clearly a big player here and he does have a much better draw although he does meet him 0.5kgs worse off. My gut feeling is though that Incentivise will have too much for him again, but he can go well.

 

Nonconformist - Another one of the leading fancies who has drawn poorly in 16, but you can't knock his form so far this prep. He beat Delphi in the Naturalism and then was beaten a nose last week in the G1 Caulfield Stakes where he is one place in front of Cox Plate favourite Zaaki. That was a slowly run race though and the concern for me would be the trip. He's had just one go at it and finished 2nd in the Mornington Cup back in March. A decent enough effort, but this is a better race. On the upside he does look a better horse so he might stay better now.

 

Analysis - Those 7 for me are the leading chances and Incentivise could well just prove too good for them despite his awful draw. The question is the price though and is it any value? For me he is the right price so I will look elsewhere and put up a couple e/w. First one has to be Delphi who looked really good last week and looked to have plenty more in the tank. If he builds on that then I think he can at least hit the frame. I will also cover She's Ideel as she looks overpriced to me especially if the forecast rain hits.

 

Delphi e/w @ 15/2 with William Hill (5 places)

She's Ideel e/w @ 22/1 with William Hill (5 places)