[Non-League Predictions - 21st October]

Chesterfield v Gateshead

Not ideal for Gateshead that their manager has departed for MK Dons given how well he has done for them and it isn't going to help their promotion cause this season. In the short term though I don't expect too much to change as it would be daft for the interim to change a successful formula. I do keep trying to take Chesterfield on and to be fair Bromley were awful against them the last time I did. I expect Gateshead to be different though and I think they will cause the home side problems. I'd make them closer to Chesterfield in the betting so will take a chance I can get them beat.

 

Rochdale v Oldham

I took Oldham on last week and based on the match report (no stats go on Wyscout for that stage of the FA Cup) we were unlucky not to collect although Oldham. I am however going to back Oldham here as I am expecting a big upturn in performance now Micky Mellon has had a week to kick the team into shape. He looks a great choice of manager for them and for me they have the better squad than Rochdale so will take them to give Mellon his first win at the first time of asking.

 

Southend v Solihull Moors

In hindsight I should have taken on Southend at Yeovil last weekend as they were down to the bare bones partly because some of their players were cup tied or in the case of the loanee from Charlton not allowed to play. Whilst clearly those things aren't an issue this weekend, it does seem they could be struggling for players again as there is illness going through the squad and they have also suffered more injuries. I do think Solihull have been over achieving, but it also seems that they are going to spend money again now they are in such a good position in the league and they signed a good player from Aveley yesterday. Obviously it is hard to know what team Southend are going to capable of putting out, but I do think Solihull are over priced anyway.

 

Prices from 12pm Friday

 

Gateshead 1pt @ 16/5 with Bet365, William Hill, Skybet and Ladbrokes (Coral are 100/30 and take up to 5/2)

Oldham 1pt @ 2/1 with Bet365, Paddy Power, Betfair, Coral and Betfred (take up to 6/4)

Solihull 1pt @ 14/5 with Betfair, BetVictor, Paddy Power and Bet365 (take up to 2/1)

[Race Chat-Sat 21st Oct]

Saturday 7.15am sees the latest running of the Caulfield Cup. There will be a few familiar names and Joseph O'Brien has two runners and the Crisford's run West Wind Blows. Here are my thoughts on the runners.

 

Gold Trip - Just got headed in the final strides in this last year, then finished 9^th in the Cox Plate before going on to impressively win the Melbourne Cup. He won for the first time since when putting in a superb performance to beat a few of these in the Turnbull Stakes a couple of weeks ago. Has to give more weight away here, but if he's in the form he was a couple of weeks ago he might be capable of doing it.

 

Without A Flight - Only finished 13^th in last year's Melbourne Cup, but then went up to Queensland in May/June and won a G3 and a G2 in easy style. Had a break and then returned in the G1 Underwood last time over 1800m here a month ago and was an eye-catcher when finishing 6^th behind Alligator Blood who won again last week. The step up to 2400m from 1800m is going to be ideal for him and he looks a big player.

 

Breakup - As they have shown so often in recent years, the Japanese horses have to be respected wherever the go. Was well beaten by Equinox last time at big odds although clearly not a shock as he was big odds that day. His last win came over 2500m in November at G2 and he was 4^th in a G1 over 3200m in April. He certainly has to be respected.

 

Montefilia - Had started to become disappointing, but she's been good in her last two starts finishing 3^rd in a G3 at Randwick and then won the G2 Hill Stakes last time at Rosehill. She did it well that day given she didn't get a gap until 250m to go. Probably needs to find more again here, but at least she is in form.

 

Francesco Guardi - Certainly needs this trip as he proved last year when finishing 2^nd in the Bart Cummings over 2510m and then winning the Moonee Valley Cup over 2500m. Started off over 1400m this prep then up to 1600m and then 2000m when 7^th in the Turnbull. Has been running solidly and clearly be building up to this.

 

West Wind Blows - Simon & Ed Crisford have sent him down after a very solid summer over here including a G3 win at Longchamp, 2^nd in the Hardwick and a respectable run in the Eclipse. Was a huge run first up in the Turnbull to finish 2^nd to Gold Trip and on that form he is weighted to reverse the form. I liked the way he kept finding to hold on for 2^nd and he should improve from that run. He's drawn in 2 so Spencer will need to get him settled close to the pace otherwise the concern is he wont be able to get a run. If he does that he ought to be going very close.

 

Soulcombe - Another ex-UK horse and looks to have an obvious chance. Was really impressive first up in a Listed Race here over 1700m and then has run really good races at G1 level when 4^th in the Underwood over 1800 and then ran on strongly for 3^rd in the Turnbull. 2400m is going to be ideal for him and again is weighted to reverse form with Gold Trip. 

 

Duke De Sessa - Used to be trained by Dermot Weld in Ireland and won a Listed Race on his final start in November at Naas. Has been settled near the back in all his 3 races in Australia so far and stayed on well enough in the Turnbull when 6^th last time. Step up in trip is ideal and likely to be peaking here. Likely to have to travel very wide though given his run style and wide draw and I also think he would prefer a softer track.

 

Hoo Ya Mal - 2^nd in last years Derby and finished 12^th in last year's Melbourne Cup on his first start in Australia. Had the fastest last 600m of the race when resuming over 1600m in a G2 at Randwick finishing 5th, was then 7^th a couple of weeks later in the 7 Stakes also over 1600m and then was just run down late by Montefilia in the Hill Stakes. Clearly going to enjoy stepping up in trip and might just be in better form than the bare figures suggest.

 

Right You Are - Won the Listed Mornington Cup in April and the 5^th in the Underwood wasn't too bad, but was only 11^th in the Turnbull and he doesn't look like being good enough.

 

Emissary - Another who wasn't great in the Turnbull when finishing 12^th and I'd be surprised if he won.

 

Goldman - Another who doesn't look good enough and given he usually just about leads he's going to have to do some work to get over from 18.

 

Okita Soushi - Royal Ascot winner in June when landing the Duke Of Edinburgh beating HMS President by a neck. Not sure he achieved a great deal in the St Leger Trial last time, but it has to be said that if this were a handicap in the UK or Ireland he would actually be getting less weight than he is from the other horses with UK/Irish ratings higher up the handicap. I don't really fancy him, but at the same time if he won I could see why did.

 

Fame - 2^nd in the Queensland Derby in May, but that wouldn't be good enough and not improved since. 

 

Bois D'Argent - Ran OK in The Metropolitain when 7^th and he didn't get much luck in running, but given the winner Just Fine bombed out last week then I would be surprised if that form line was good enough. 

 

Spirit Ridge - Stablemate of Bois D'Argent and was 2^nd in The Metropolitain. Usually makes the running, but can't see him making all.

 

Valiant King - He has the same Irish rating as his stablemate and yet has even less weight to carry. He's very lightly raced and his only win was in a Navan maiden in May, but on his next start he was 2^nd to Desert Hero at Royal Ascot. That is obviously strong form, but it was his next run that is even more eye-catching as he was only just beaten by Vauban and they pulled clear of the rest. Granted he wasn't so good on his last start, but I suspect that was being used more as a prep run ahead of his journey to Australia. Stall 1 can prove troublesome at times, but he has Jamie Kah on top so she is capable of delivering the goods.

 

United Nations - Was a good 2^nd in the Herbert Power last week, but would be a shock winner.

 

Verdict - This is really competitive and to be honest it might be harder to find the winner than it will be of the Melbourne Cup next month. I'm going to put Without A Flight on top as this looks ideal for him. He was fancied for the Melbourne Cup last year, but the ground went against him as he needs it quick as he showed when going up to Queensland for his two wins. It will be quick ground here and his prep run was full of promise. I know Gold Trip is weighted to not finish in front of the 2^nd and 3^rd from the Turnbull, but I think he is worth more than the winning margin and the turn of foot he showed was seriously impressive. He is my main danger. Soulcombe didn't get the clearest of runs in the Turnbull and I don't think he was ridden quite as strongly as Gold Trip once out in the clear so he is next. West Wind Blows was game in that race to finish 2nd, but sometimes horses from the UK don't run as well 2^nd up and his low draw does concern as he could find traffic. Clearly though if he does back it up then he can win. Valiant King is the other that really interests me especially on his Vauban form, but the draw just puts me off from making him a bet.

 

Without A Flight @ 11/2 with Bet365, Paddy Power and Betfair

 

NB If having an e/w bet William Hill are going 5 places 

[Racing Chat - Saturday 14th October]

1 hour ago, Sporting Sam said:

10,372,484.41
sterling to the winner. That is some insane prize money.
It makes the Melbourne cup look like the racing league at lingfield on a Thursday night.

The starting price of the winner was some value. Darran  thank you again. 👍 

No worries. I think alcohol free has gone and they would be better off retiring her and breeding from her. That’s 2 poor runs and 1 average run now in Australia from her.

[Racing Chat - Saturday 14th October]

The richest race on turf, The Everest, takes place at Randwick tomorrow morning. Not sure it is the classiest renewal of the contest but it certainly looks a competitive contest and here is my look at the runners.

I Wish I Win - Landed the Golden Eagle last October over 1500m and followed that up with a 2nd and 3rd in G1's over 1000m and 1200m at Flemington last prep before winning the T J Smith over C & D in April. Just had the one prep run for this and that was 6 weeks ago so a bit unusual in Australian terms, but it was a very good 3rd. Handles any ground and clearly a big player. The one concern is actually the fact he is drawn in 1 because he is usually held up and he might need luck in running to win.

Private Eye - Was 2nd in this last year, but that effort does stand out a little with the other form he has shown since. Did win 1st up in the G2 The Shorts here a month ago over 1100m and he did win a G2 coming into this race last year. On balance though I think he will do well to equal last year's effort let alone go one better.

Think About It - Impossible to knock his record as he has won 10 times from 11 starts. He landed 2 G1s at Eagle Farm in May and June over 1300m and 1400m, but he is also 4-4 over 1200m so the trip is no concern at all. Really liked the way he dug in when Hawaii Five Oh came to him 1st up in the G2 Premiere over C&D a couple of weeks ago. Surely going to build on that and has a lovely draw in 5. A big player.

Mazu - Has talented, but has work to do to overturn form with a view of these. To be fair to him he had no luck last time in The Shorts, but even so I can't see him winning this.

Overpass - Landed the first version of The Quokka, which is WA's version of this, at Ascot in April. Followed that up with a 2nd to Giga Kick in a G1 at Doomben the following month. That's good form and he beat Amelia's Jewel in The Quokka who could win another G1 herself at Caulfield tomorrow. Just got caught late on by Private Eye a month ago, but should come on for that although his win in The Quokka was 1st up. Wouldn't be out of this on his two runs last prep. Looks the likely front runner from his inside gate.

Buenos Noches - G3 winner 1st up over C&D in August and then looked unfortunate not to win The Shorts last time as he got no run until 200m and then hit the line very strong. He does need to improve, but has only had 9 starts and based on his two runs this prep he does look still on the upgrade.

Hawaii Five Oh - Was only 6th in The Shorts and then looked like he would win the Premiere last time, but Think About It kept finding more to beat him. That suggests to me he needs to find more to win this.

Alcohol Free - A horse who needs no introduction having been a superstar over here including winning the July Cup last year in great style. New connections paid a fortune for her and she was fav to win a G1 over 1600m on her first Oz run in April here, but she ran poorly to finish 10th of 16. Ran OK in the Premiere to finish 4th, but it didn't strike me as a run to suggest she would find more to reverse the form with Think About It. If she did find the form she showed to win the July Cup then I think she would be a big player, but I'm not sure she is at that level anymore.

In Secret - Won half of her 12 starts including the G1 Newmarket at Flemington in March. Was well beaten behind I Wish I Win in the T J Smith on her next start though. Solid two runs this season with a 2nd in a G3 and 4th in The Shorts. 4 of her 6 wins have been over 1200m and to me those runs will have put her spot on for this race. Looks a contender to me.

Espiona - Won the G1 Coolmore at Rosehill in March although that was over 1500m and she has only won one of her 6 starts over 1200m. Was impressive at G2 level last time over 1400m and I suspect she has the class to win this, but the trip might not be far enough for her.

Shinzo - Landed the biggest 2yo race in Oz, the Golden Slipper in March under Ryan Moore. Moore went back over to ride him in the G1 Golden Rose last month, but got a poor draw and everything went wrong in the race as well. Clearly unexposed and wouldn't surprise me if he ran very well, but with the way the race planned out last time it is hard to be fully certain as to how he compares now he is out of 2yo company.

Cylinder - The other 3yo in the race and was 2nd to Shinzo in the Golden Slipper. We do know however that he has done well as a 3yo because he won his first 2 this prep at G3 at Caulfield and a G2 at Rosehill. He then also ran in the Golden Rose and finished 3rd where he didn't get the best of runs either. He might have improved past Shinzo now.

Verdict - For me Think About It looks the most likely winner. To win 10/11 starts takes some doing at this short of level and I loved the way he dug deep to win last time. I Wish I Win is likely to be the main danger, but I can't help thinking he's going to need a lot of luck from stall 1 given his running style. The Godolphin pair, In Secret and Cylinder look big dangers to me as well. Overpass could be the one at double figures if he can repeat his form from earlier in the year.

Think About It @ 3/1 with Bet365

[Non-League Predictions - 7th October]

Shame Hemel and Welling both conceded in injury time as would have made it even better. Also sounds like Dagenham should have won, like you say though Southport winning was the main one and guaranteed a profit whatever happened elsewhere.

[Non-League Predictions - 7th October]

Hartlepool v Eastleigh

I got Eastleigh wrong on Tuesday night and in the end they ran out easy winners with Paul McCallum scoring a hattrick. That win means they have only lost twice in their last 10 games. They were the heavy defeat at Gateshead when things went badly wrong and a 1-0 loss to Bromley. They have crept into the top 7 as well and its fair to say that Hartlepool are going very much in the other direction. It is just 1 win in 7 and they lost again on Wednesday at Boreham Wood. They did play quite well in that game and were a bit unlucky to lose it, but they are struggling for goals at the moment with just 3 scored in their last 6 games. I certainly think Eastleigh have a good chance of picking up another win here.

 

Oldham v Dagenham & Redbridge

Dagenham are on a poor run of form having only picked up 2 points in their last 7 games, but I don't think it is quite as bad as that. The two times I have put them up as a bet they have had a red card which I think has cost them the game and that includes last Saturday at Aldershot. They should have beaten York on Tuesday night as well but 2 late goals turned the game in York's favour. I am going to back them again here though because Oldham still haven't turned the corner for me. I know they won 3 on the bounce after sacking Unsworth, but I saw enough in the game against Kidderminster to know that the quality of performance still isn't there. They drew with Wealdstone on Saturday and again with Maidenhead on Tuesday where the fans were saying that the 2^nd half performance was just like the Unsworth era. They are crying out for a manager, but for whatever reason they still haven't hired anyone full time. I am happy to take them on here with a Dagenham side who I think have been a bit unlucky not to have picked up more points.

 

Bishops Stortford v Southport

I am really keen on Southport here and make them the best bet of the weekend. They only picked up 1 point in their first 6 games and then they had a change of manager and that has done the trick because they then won their next 3 games and drew with Tamworth last time which given how well they are doing was a good effort. They look a completely different side now and they have a great chance of keeping the unbeaten run going. Stortford have been struggling for goals having only scored 7 in the league and the fact they lost their captain this week to Billericay doesn't bode well. They tried hard to keep him, but Billericay clearly have more money than them. Southport look the better side to me and look a great bet.

 

Tonbridge Angels v Hemel Hempstead

Tonbridge have only managed to beat Dover at home this season and they have only won 3 games overall. They aren't doing as well as they did last season whereas Hemel are the opposite. They have only lost twice so far having beaten both Yeovil and Torquay. They are the better side for me and whilst I don't think there is a huge amount in the price there is enough to get involved.

 

Welling v Farnborough

For me Welling should be higher up the table and they are better than their position in the table suggests. I put them up a couple of weeks ago against Eastbourne when they drew 2-2 and they could easily have won that. They did play on Wednesday as they were taken to a replay by Gosport in the FA Cup, but they won that 4-2 and that was a good effort as Gosport are flying this season. I also opposed Farnborough a couple of weeks ago and they also drew 2-2 with Slough and again we could easily have had a winner in that match as well. Since then they have lost their star striker to Woking and they lost in the FA Cup last weekend to Weston. I'd have Welling as favs for this this and they look a fair bet.

 

Prices from Thursday morning

 

Eastleigh 1pt @ 12/5 with Coral and Bet365 (13/5 with Skybet and take up to 2/1)

Dagenham & Redbridge 1pt @ 100/30 with Bet365, Skybet, Paddy Power and Betfair (take up to 5/2)

Southport 3pts @ 2/1 with Bet365, Paddy Power, Betfair and William Hill (take up to 11/8)

Hemel Hempstead 1pt @ 9/5 with Paddy Power, Betfair and Betfred (11/5 with Hills and take up to 13/8)

Welling 1pt @ 9/5 with Skeybet, William Hill and Betfred (Betfair and Paddy Power are 11/5 and take up to 11/8)

[Non-League Predictions - 3rd October]

Chesterfield v Bromley

Whatever happens in this game the price on Bromley is just too big. For the 2^nd time this season when I thought Chesterfield would go and beat a team easily they failed to do so. They were poor against Maidenhead as well and this will clearly be a tougher test although I do expect them to play better. Bromley though continued their unbeaten on Saturday and I think they will make things very tough for the home side here. Obviously the home side deserve to be favs, but 11/2 is a much bigger price than I think Bromley should be so happy to take a chance.

 

Eastleigh v Ebbsfleet

For there to be 5 goals in Eastleigh's game at Halifax was a bit of a surprise given Halifax games had only featured 20 goals prior to that and Eastleigh haven't exactly been the most prolific in front of goal either. I was also surprised by Eastleigh going for Richard Hill as manager as it just seems a backwards step and he has had a very easy fixture list. I watched Ebbsfleet v Dorking last week and as much as we were on Dorking and they won I do think Ebbsfleet put in a fair performance. They managed to build on that on Saturday when easily beating Boreham Wood. The one concern is that Ebbsfleet have only won once away from home which came in their win at Rochdale on the opening day of the season, but to be fair to them they have had some tricky away games and they did manage a draw at Woking. They are good enough to win this and value to do so.

 

Prices from Monday 5pm

 

Bromley 1pt @ 11/2 with Bet365, Paddy Power, Betfair, Skybet, William Hill, Coral and BetVictor (take up to 3/1)

Ebbsfleet 1pt @ 2/1 with Bet365 and Coral (take up to 13/8)

[Non-League Predictions - 3rd October]

Dorking v Kidderminster

Dorking were backed into around 11/10 for this game at one stage which is much closer to the price they should be as I would personally make them odds on. The fact that they have drifted out to 6/4 and 2.72 (at the time of writing) on Betfair makes them a huge price. Obviously they have done us proud the last couple of games and we have made plenty opposing Kidderminster who for the first time struggled to even get a high xG figure at home on Saturday. They did manage to score, but Dorking have been doing so well in keeping clean sheets this season, in contrast to last season, that there is a strong chance they will keep another one here. Scoring goals has never been a problem for Dorking and as I have highlighted before Kidderminster have been even worse away from home so far this season. The reason for the drift would be Dorking's injuries, but that didn't stop them on Saturday when they lost their captain just after the game started. Hartlepool away is a much tougher game than Kidderminster at home and even with the injuries Dorking will still have the stronger side in my view. 

 

Dorking 2.5pts @ 6/4 with pretty much everyone (take up to 10/11)

[Non-League Predictions - 30th September]

Aldershot v Dagenham & Redbridge

I was not impressed at all with Aldershot on Tuesday night and whilst they were a goal up and you hope any team you are on can hold on from there, it would have been harsh on Southend if they hadn't got something from the game. Granted Dagenham are struggling for wins and struggling for goals. They haven't scored in 4 games now, indeed they have featured in two 0-0s and two 1-0 defeats so there have been few goals full stop. Prior to those 4 games we were on them to beat Chesterfield and until they went a man down I thought they looked pretty comfortable at 1 up so they are more than capable of beating a side like Aldershot and they are a bit of value to do so.

 

Bromley v Gateshead

Two of the form sides in the division as Bromley haven't lost since losing their first 2 games of the season and Gateshead are unbeaten in 7 having also just lost twice all season. They have looked very good putting 3 past Kidderminster and Maidenhead and on Tuesday 4 past Oxford City. The thing is though they are pretty much the 3 worst teams in the division and when they beat Eastleigh 6-0 recently, they were truly awful. That isn't to say that Gateshead aren't a good side because they are, but for me the kind fixture list has helped them and it has meant the are stupidly short to win this. Again that's not to say they can't win, but I just don't see how they can be odds on to beat a Bromley side who as highlighted have been impossible to beat since the opening two games of the season. If Gateshead were at home I could understand the odds on quote more, although even then I wouldn't have them that short. I think at home Bromley have to be favs and in some ways that should mean given the odds they are that we should be having a decent bet on them, but like I say this is a game between two in form sides and thus it is more a bet because of the odds rather than being really confident Bromley will win.

 

Hartlepool v Dorking

In some ways I was surprised to see Dorking being backed and I did think I might be on my own in wanting to back them at 6/1, but that price has long gone although I still think they are a value bet. Only Rochdale have beaten them in their last 6 games and that was with 2 injury times as well. Hartlepool have gone off the boil in recent weeks having only beaten Wealdstone and Dagenham in their last 7 games. Again like above in some ways any of the 3 results wouldn't surprise, but I don't think Dorking should be as big as they are and I am happy to take a chance on them again on them to win for us for the 2^nd consecutive game.

 

Maidenhead v Chesterfield

Granted in previous seasons Maidenhead have perked up when playing the top sides and have caused all sorts of issues for them, but they are just woeful at the moment and as much as I think Chesterfield are still beatable in the title race, they should have way too much for the home side. The intensity that they started the game with at Rochdale on Tuesday was incredible and they fully deserved to be 1 up early doors. As much as Rochdale didn't cause them too many problems in the 2^nd half, Chesterfield actually only managed 1 shot which is something for the other sides to cling on to. That shouldn't be an issue here though and they really should cover the -1 handicap.

 

Double

Oldham actually got a higher xG than Kidderminster on Tuesday night, but make no bones about it Oldham were fortunate winners as Kidderminster once again played well at home but failed to win. That has been the story of their season and they just don't have the strike force to score goals. Barnet were very good at York on Tuesday and they do have the fire power to score goals. I do think though the price only has marginal value in it which is why I am sticking them in a double with Altrincham who feature in the live game against Oxford City. Oxford did have a very good spell which includes beating Hartlepool and Boreham Wood, but they were very lucky to get a point at Eastleigh and they were hopeless in their last two games against Oldham and Gateshead. Altrincham didn't create as much as I thought they would against Maidenhead on Tuesday and that is why like Barnet I think they are only marginal value, but I do think they will win.

 

Scunthorpe v Buxton

Given what happened in the 1^st game and what is happening off the field I do think Buxton are worth a bet here. If you aren't aware of what happened in the 1^st game there was a torrential downpour in the 2^nd half and the pitch became unplayable, but the ref only decided to call it off in injury whilst Buxton were 2-1 up. Buxton will be hoping to get the 3 points they deserve and who knows where the heads of the Scunthorpe players will be. Possibly they will want to give their fans a performance in what might be their last ever game at their home, but they might also be thinking they will be needing to look for a new club soon. At the prices again Buxton are worth a value play.

 

Prices from around 8.30pm on Thursday

Dagenham & Redbridge 1pt @ 2/1 with Bet365, Skybet and Betfred (take up to 7/4)

Bromley 1pt @ 13/5 with Paddy Power, Betfair, BetVictor and William Hill (14/5 with Coral and 11/4 with Skybet take up to 6/4)

Dorking 1pt @ 9/2 with Bet365 and Coral (take up to 3/1)

Chesterfield -1 1pt @ 8/5 with Skybet, Bet365 and Coral (take up to 5/4)

Barnet/Altrincham 1pt double @ 3.4/1 with Bet365 and Coral (take up to 11/4)

Buxton 1pt @ 7/2 with Skybet and Paddy Power (Betfair are 18/5 and take up to 5/2)

[Non-League Ante-Post 23/24]

I have been monitoring the situation at Scunthorpe very closely and as much as I wanted to give the bet every chance I do think with the latest update the best advice now has to be to cash out of our bets. Here is a link to the latest update if you want to read it for yourselves https://t.co/F0BXSDv8lf. The fact the owner is not putting anymore money in worries me given the huge wage bill they have and as much as it mentions they don't want the playing staff to be affected I'm not sure how it can't not be. The fact they are moving to Gainsborough to play their games is going to make this worse as crowd numbers are going to drop massively. I also don't like the mention of bringing in an outside company to run the club as that could mean administrators and if that happens they will be docked 10 points straight away. To be honest it just looks like one huge mess and I just can't be certain they will see out the season let alone win the league anymore. Given we can cash out for a profit I would rather do that now than be worrying what is going to happen especially as it is a 4pt bet. We still have the Spennymoor bet and that looks a huge player at this stage. Apart from Scunthorpe's game against Buxton on Saturday there are no more games until the following Saturday so I will give it some thought about who if anyone I want to add to the bets as there is time to do so. This isn't something I like doing, but I just think it has got to the stage where it is the best thing to do.

[Non-League Ante-Post 23/24]

I’m holding fire for the moment as I want to wait and see what happens regarding wages paid or not at the end of the month. It’s a very bizarre set of circumstances though.

[Non-League Predictions - 26th September]

Aldershot v Southend

Clearly I should have tried carrying on trying to oppose Southend as they lost 2-1 to Fylde on Saturday and everything I have read on the game suggests that the players were very tired after playing on Tuesday. I'm surprised a little because they didn't have to work that hard to beat Maidenhead, but clearly that is worrying for them given they have to play again tomorrow. Not surprisingly their away form hasn't been as good as their home form and I certainly think it has been a case of them wanting to put on a performance for their fans who are going through so much at the moment. Aldershot had a good win over Boreham Wood on Saturday and their only defeat at home this season was against Chesterfield. I'm really surprised to see Southend as favs for this game and am very keen on Aldershot.

 

Ebbsfleet v Dorking

It was a dire afternoon on Saturday for the home side as Altrincham put 6 past them and that means they have won just once in 6 games. Granted they have been better at home and have conceded just 4 times in 5 games and scored 10 so that is one thing to consider, but I just can't have them as short as they are for this game and so Dorking look a value play. They lost their first 3 away games, but they had to travel to Chesterfield, Solihull and Woking so it was a tough start and they nearly got something at Chesterfield. They then drew at Oldham (where they did off course score but it wasn't given) and then beat Halifax in their last away game. They should have won on Saturday, but allowed Rochdale to score 2 late goals to beat them 2-1. I just don't think there is as much between these two sides as the bookies think so am happy to take a chance on the away side.

 

Kidderminster v Oldham

No surprise to me that the sacking of Unsworth has suddenly seen a huge upturn in performances and results for Oldham and they really ought to prove too strong for Kidderminster. Now I accept that Kiddie are putting in strong performances at home as they have had high xGs for and low xGs against, but Oldham, as they proved on Saturday when winning 4-0, carry a huge goal threat and in my view the biggest goal threat they have faced at home so far this season. Those xG's have only led to 1 goal and whilst surely they have to score at some point, it has been a huge problem. They did take the lead against Eastleigh on Saturday, but it was via a penalty. Oldham should be much shorter for this than they are.

 

Maidenhead v Altrincham

I was surprised that Maidenhead kept Gateshead quiet for as long as they did on Saturday, but in the end it was a comfortable win for the home side. They created very little yet again and also lost their 2 central defenders to injury. That isn't going to help playing a side here who scored 6 on Saturday. Alty have struggled with injuries themselves, but added a couple of players last week which clearly helped them. They have only lost 2 games all season and whilst they have drawn plenty (6 of 11 games) I do think they can beat Maidenhead. To be fair they have been better at home having drawn 3 and only conceding 3 times, but they have also only scored 3 times and I think they might struggle to keep Alty out here.

 

Rochdale v Chesterfield

For once Chesterfield didn't have to rely on a late winner on Saturday as they beat Wealdstone 3-2 having come from a goal down. Also unusually none of their goals came from a set-piece or a penalty. I counted up a couple of weeks ago and at the time just over half their goals had come from a set-piece or a penalty. They have only lost once and that was away at Altrincham and I have seen enough in Rochdale to think they can pick up 3 points here. Confidence will be high as well given the way they won on Saturday especially given they put 4 past Barnet in their last home game.

 

Prices taken from Monday around 9am

 

Aldershot 2.5pts @ 2/1 with Skybet, William Hill and Coral (take up to 5/4)

Dorking 1pt @ 7/2 with Bet365 and Skybet (take up to 11/4)

Oldham 2.5pts @ 8/5 with Bet365 (take up to 5/4)

Altrincham 1pt @ 6/4 with Bet365 and Betfred (take up to 5/4)

Rochdale 1pt @ 9/4 with Bet365 and Coral (take up to 15/8)

[Non-League Predictions - 23rd September]

Eastleigh v Kidderminster

Kidderminster managed just 4 shots against Gateshead on Tuesday night and none were on target and the xG was 0.01. As I mentioned on Tuesday as much as they are creating lots of chances at home and not scoring they are creating very little away from home and obviously still not scoring. Eastleigh aren't as good as Gateshead, but they did well against Oxford City on Tuesday and were a bit unfortunate really to not see it out at 2-0. There was more than enough in that performance though to think they can beat Kidderminster and 1 goal might well be enough. Amazingly Kidderminster have been backed from 11/4 to win this game which just makes no sense to me.

 

Gateshead v Maidenhead

As mentioned above Gateshead had a very comfortable time of things on Tuesday in their 3-0 victory over Kidderminster. It was an impressive performance and based on what I saw on Tuesday night they should have just as easy a time against Maidenhead. Clearly some credit should go to Southend given their circumstances, but Maidenhead put in the worst performance I have seen so far this season. They only had 3 shots and all of them came in the 2^nd half. Just everything about the performance was bad and given the way Gateshead play football I think Maidenhead will struggle to contain them. Not surprisingly they were backed after Tuesday's results, but I still think the -1 handicap is value.

 

Solihull v Bromley

Solihull have yet to lose this season, but I still think they are over achieving and I think they have a fair chance of their first defeat coming in this game. As I mentioned last Saturday Bromley have really found their form after struggling at the start and they won again on Tuesday night when beating Dagenham. Clearly this is no gimmie, but I can't have Bromley being over 2/1 for this as no way is there that big a gap between the two sides and to be honest I would expect Bromley to finish above Solihull come the end of the season so they have to be a bet here.

 

Eastbourne v Welling

Welling for me are better than their league position suggests and they look a value play to win this game against Eastbourne. This is a bit of a crunch match for the Welling manager given he was sacked from Eastbourne in the summer after they were taken over. I think he will be especially keen to prove a point here and given Eastbourne haven't really been all that convincing at all this season I don't think there is much between these two sides at all and especially not the gap the bookies have between them. 

 

Farnborough v Slough

Slough have been a bit hit and miss so far this season, but they have got better as the season gone on except for the heavy defeat against Tonbridge. Beating Aveley in their last league game was a really good effort given how well they have done this season and they really ought not to have lost to Torquay as well last month. George Alexander really impressed me when he went on loan to Slough last season and they have managed to get him back this season as well and he has already scored 6 goals. I thought Farnborough would be capable of better than they have done so far and on paper they are probably stronger than Slough, but Alexander will be the best man on the pitch and I just can't make them as big as the bookies have them.

 

Hampton & Richmond v Yeovil

Hampton finally got a win on the board in their first home game of the season (they played their first few away from home) when they beat Weymouth although they did have to rely on a penalty that night. Yeovil are definitely better than Hampton and whilst they haven't always been at their best on the pitch, I'm not surprised they have been well backed since I sent the tips out last night. 

 

Chatham v Lewes (Isthmian Premier)

Chatham won their first 5 games, but their last 2 games have not been so good having lost 5-1 to Cray, which was their first win of the season, and then they drew with Potters Bar 0-0 last week, which was their first point of the season. Lewes started well also winning their first 3 they then drew against Hornchurch and Bognor. Those were decent efforts given Hornchurch were the ante-post favs and Bognor have drawn 4 of their 7 games so are clearly hard to beat. They did lose to Folkestone in their last league game, but bounced back to beat Ascot in the FA Cup last week. They look value to me to get back to winning ways in the league.

 

Salisbury v Bracknell (Southern Premier South)

I really don't understand the prices here and it is almost like it has been based on what the teams were doing last season rather than this one. Salisbury of course are one of our ante-post bets and they remain unbeaten after 8 league games having won 5 and drawn 3. They had an easy time of things in the FA Cup last week beating Mousehole 5-0 as well and they should be favs to win this game for me. Bracknell had a good FA Cup win themselves beating Havant, but their away form in the league has been poor having lost 3 and drawn 1. The losses were to Gosport, Poole and Walton so 3 of the better teams in the league, but then Salisbury are also one of the better sides in the division and I just don't see how they can be nearly 2/1 to win this.

 

NB prices from Thursday evening

 

Eastleigh 2pts @ 29/20 with Bet365 (6/4 with Skybet and take up to 11/10)

Gateshead -1 2.5pts @ 11/10 with Skybet (13/10 with Paddy Power and Betfair and take up to 5/6)

Bromley 1pt @ 23/10 with Paddy Power, William Hill, Betfair and Coral (Bet365 are 5/2 and take up to 2/1)

Welling 1pt @ 3/1 with Skybet, William Hill and Bet365 (16/5 with Betfred and take up to 9/4)

Slough 1pt @ 16/5 with Paddy Power, William Hill, Betfair and Bet365 (take up to 5/2)

Yeovil 1pt 6/4 with Bet365, William Hill and Betfred (take up to 5/4)

Lewes 1pt @ 2/1 with Skybet, Paddy Power, Betfair, BetVictor and Betfred (take up to 7/4)

Salisbury 1pt @ 15/8 with Betfred and Skybet (take up to 5/4)

[Non-League Predictions - 10th September]

Chesterfield v Dagenham & Redbridge

I'm happy to oppose Chesterfield again. They can't stop leaking goals and as their assistant said after the win at Aldershot, they can't keep having to score 4 goals to win games. Clearly they are the most likely winners, but Dagenham have been much improved since their shocking start to the season and they were the first team to beat Barnet. 5/1 is too big for me and I am happy to take a chance.

 

Oldham v Dorking

In some ways Oldham were unlucky not to win against Gateshead last week, but I think Gateshead more than deserved the point. The defending for the Gateshead 2^nd was awful as well and a team like Oldham, especially as they were a goal up, should have defended much better than they did. Unsworth continues to look clueless and I am happy to take them on here. Again on paper they should win this and Dorking are hardly in great form themselves having only beaten Southend so far, but they should have beaten Eastleigh last week and I think they have the potential to make things tricky for Oldham. The longer it stays 0-0 or if Dorking can take the lead then the more the crowd will be calling for Unsworth to go and that will make it a pretty toxic environment for the homeside.

 

Scarborough v Brackley

Brackley had more than enough chances to have won for us against Kings Lynn on Tuesday night, but in the end they had to settle for a point having scored a very late equaliser. I think they are a fair bet to beat a Scarborough side who lost to Southport on Tuesday and weren't great in getting a point against Gloucester last Saturday.

 

Canvey Island v Whitehawk (Isthmian Premier)

After losing to Margate on the opening day, newly promoted Whitehawk have done very well. They drew with Hastings, who are yet to lose, beat Billericay, who have won every other game and beat Horsham who have done well so far as well. That's strong form for me and they look a spot of value to beat a Canvey Island side who have struggled to find the form that saw them finish in the play-offs last season. They did beat Concord a couple of weeks ago, but they have lost every game and the 3 previous defeats were not great. 

 

AFC Totton v Hendon and Gosport v Hungerford (Southern Premier South)

Going to double up the 2 home sides here. Both have been backed which isn't a surprise. Hendon have drawn 4 of their 6 games so far, but Totton should be good enough to get the 3 points. Hungerford have struggled against the better sides so far and Gosport are clearly one of those at the moment so again ought to be too strong.

 

Prices from 8pm Friday night

Dagenham & Redbridge 1pt @ 5/1 with Bet365, Paddy Power, Betfair and Coral (take up to 15/4)

Dorking 1pt @ 9/2 with Paddy Power, Betfair and Coral (take up to 15/4)

Brackley 1pt @ 7/5 with Paddy Power and Betfair (take up to 5/4)

Whitehawk 1pt @ 2/1 with Paddy Power, Betfair, Skybet, BetVictor and Betfred (take up to 13/8)

AFC Totton/Gosport 1pt double @ 9/4 with Skybet and Betfred (take up to 2/1)

[Non-League Predictions - 2nd Sept]

Alfreton v Scunthorpe

I put Scunthorpe up last Saturday when they were odds against and they lost to Curzon although they were a bit unlucky to. I watched the first half against Scarborough on Monday and they looked very good, eventually winning the game 4-1. Alfreton allowed Kings Lynn to have 60% of the ball on Monday and I can imagine that they will allow Scunthorpe a lot of the ball here and just try to defend and then hit them on the break. I think Scunthorpe are more than good enough to overcome those tactics though and I'm going to back them at odds on against again to win.

 

Curzon Ashton v Tamworth

Both these sides have got off to very good starts to the season and Curzon are unbeaten having won 3 and drawn 3, which includes that win against Scunthorpe mentioned above. They haven't been creating too many chances of in recent games, but they are being very clinical and they scored with all 4 shots on target on Monday against Peterborough. This is no gimmie as Tamworth look decent as well, but given they are at home I am surprised that Curzon are the outsiders so I for me there is value in backing the home side.

 

Farsley Celtic v Kings Lynn

Celtic were unbeaten going into Monday's game at Chester, but they really struggled in that game only having 2 shots during the 90 minutes. They ended up losing 2-0, but I think they are value to get back to winning ways here. They have drawn all 3 of their home games so far, but they have played Chorley, South Shields and Tamworth and I think Kings Lynn aren't as good as those 3 teams at the moment. I know they finally won on Monday, but I'm not sure it was a sign that they were going to go flying up the table and I just think that Farsley are too big a price to win this.

 

Eastbourne v Weston-Super-Mare

A battle between two seaside towns and one I think might be won by the away side. Eastbourne have really struggled so far this season having only won their opening game against Hampton and they have lost their last 4. There were some signs of improvement against Chelmsford, but this new side just seem to be struggling performance wise. Weston were poor in 3-0 losses to Slough and Farnborough, but were much better on Monday against Hemel and should have won rather than drawing 1-1. I think Weston are a small bit of value to win this.

 

Welling v St Albans

There has been money for Welling and I am not surprised as they had been playing fairly well and just not getting the results, before getting 6/6 points over the bank holiday weekend when they beat Havant and Tonbridge. I watched the 2^nd half when I put up St Albans to beat Havant the other week and felt like we had got away with one as I wasn't overly impressed. They have duly lost all 3 games since then against Torquay, Taunton and Bath. Their xG's have been below 1 in all 3 of those games and they just aren't creating decent chances at the moment. Welling come into this full of confidence and I would make them favourites.

 

Prices from around 5pm on Friday afternoon

 

Scunthorpe 2pts @ 21/20 with William Hill, Paddy Power, Betfair and Betfred (take up to 10/11)

Curzon Ashton 1pt @ 17/10 with William Hill and Bet365 (take up to 6/4)

Farsley Celtic 1pt @ 21/10 with Bet365, Paddy Power, William Hill, Betfair and Betfred (take up to 13/8)

Weston-Super-Mare 1pt @ 2/1 with everyone (take up to 7/4)

Welling 1pt @ 13/8 with Bet365, Betfair, Betfred and Paddy Power (take up to 11/8)

[Non-League Predictions - 28th August]

27 minutes ago, buga00 said:

@Darran do you know iif there are clubs that broadcast the games free  in Non League ?

No the national league stream their games for £9.50 a match day though 

[Non-League Predictions - 28th August]

Scunthorpe ought to win, but Scarborough are dangerous.

[Non-League Predictions - 28th August]

AFC Fylde v Altrincham

Altrincham fully deserved to beat Chesterfield on Saturday and I will write more on them in a minute, but it was an impressive performance and it means they are unbeaten. I've been a bit disappointed with Fylde so far as I thought they would hit the ground running after winning the title last season, but it hasn't really happened for them. I nearly opposed them on Saturday where they lost to Hartlepool on the TV. I was only able to watch the first half, but it was very easy for the home side and it highlighted the gulf that Fylde face at the moment against the better sides in the division and I think Altrincham are one of those. I'm always slightly wary about teams backing up after just the 48 hour break otherwise I would have a bigger bet because I would make them slight favs to win this.

 

Bromley v Southend

Bromley have been poor so far and they have yet to win. Arguably they have been fortunate to even get three points on the board. Clearly there is a chance Southend might not even exist in just over a months time, but that hasn't bothered the players too much. I watched them on Friday night against Eastleigh and they were very good and it is clear they want to put on a performance for the fans. The small squad is a small concern given the quick turnaround, but having played on Friday night instead of Saturday should help on that front. They have been backed already and I'm not surprised as I think they will win again.

 

Chesterfield v Hartlepool

I keep reading and hearing that Chesterfield are the best team in the league, while they haven't shown they are on the pitch so far and yet again they were pretty ordinary on Saturday. They managed just 4 shots against Altrincham and the goal, which was from a corner (just as it was against Oldham), was their only shot on target. In the last half hour of the game, where the home side were really on top, they only had 41% of the ball and in the 1^st half, where they had more of the ball, they were just as ineffective at creating chances as they were against Oldham. Hartlepool are top of the table and deservedly so as they have looked very good so far. For some reason the home side are being backed even though they are already odds on and that makes no sense to me at all. Right now Hartlepool are the better side and whilst that could change tomorrow, they are a fantastic price.

 

Kings Lynn v Alfreton

Kings Lynn have been pretty woeful so far this season. They have yet to win and have even been fortunate at times to pick up the 3 points they have. They hosted Gloucester last Saturday and even though we have been pretty rubbish ourselves we should have beaten them. They are the only side to have lost to Chester and Chorley got their first win against them on Saturday. Alfreton have been their usual solid selves so far although they will be a bit disappointed to lose 3-2 to a Darlington side who hadn't won prior to Saturday. Hopefully that won't happen again here and they are too big a price not to back against a home side who have yet to get going.

 

Havant & Waterlooville v Yeovil

Havant are bottom of the table and just as per last season they are struggling at home having lost both games so far. They also lost at Welling on Saturday who were picking up their first points of the season. They now have to host a Yeovil side who ought to be challenging for the title and are currently in 3^rd place in the table. I'm not surprised they are being backed, but for me the price hasn't gone far enough.

 

Prices taken from 9pm last night

Altrincham 1pt @ 2/1 with Bet365 and BetVictor (21/10 with Hills and Coral and take up to 6/4)

Southend 1pt @ 5/4 with Bet365, Coral and Skybet (13/10 with Hills and take up to 11/10)

Hartlepool 2pts @ 16/5 with Betfair, Paddy Power and Betfair (Bet365 are 100/30 and take up to 2/1)

Alfreton 1pt @ 13/5 with Paddy Power and Betfair (take up to 2/1)

Yeovil 2.5pts @ 11/10 with Bet365 (23/20 with Hills and take up to 4/5)

 

Basingstoke v AFC Totton

The home side have won their last two matches, but neither were as good as Totton and whilst the number of goals they conceded on Saturday is a slight concern, I still think they will be too strong for Basingstoke and I am surprised they aren't favourites.

 

Worthing v Weymouth, Swindon Supermarine v Merthyr and Haringey v Enfield

I am going to do a treble with three sides who are all a shade of odds on to win. Worthing have looked very good so far and were unlucky to lose the game that they have done. Weymouth have been very in and out so far and were well beaten on Saturday against Chelmsford. I think Worthing will have too much for them. Then we have two sides who are top in their respective leagues (Southern Premier South and the Isthmian Premier) and who currently have 100% travel to sides who have yet to record a point. I think that will continue and with both a shade of odds on I am happy to stick both in a double.

 

Prices taken at 9.50 this morning

AFC Totton 1pt @ 7/5 with Betfred (6/4 with William Hills and take up to 5/4)

Worthing/Merthyr/Enfield 1pt treble @ 5.4/1 with Betfred (higher is available with others)

[Australian Jumps Season 2023]

A very tough end to the season with plenty of shocks especially Stern Idol who dropped away just as tamely as he did in the Grand Annual. Hard to know why as it certainly wasn't stamina. Possibly he doesn't like getting pestered for the lead, but he's way better than that. There was talk they might bring him to Europe and I think at his best he's good enough to win a decent race over here. Crosshill annoyingly saw his saddle slip very early on and he had to be pulled up. Nelson's race was voided due to an injured jockey and Shakespere was a non runner. All that means I end up making a tiny loss for the season which isn't ideal, but sometimes that is the way it goes. Look forward to doing it all again from March.

[Australian Jumps Season 2023]

A cracking final meeting of the season to look forward to at Ballarat with plenty of ex-European horses in action including Nelson. Stern Idol is not surprisingly a warm order for the Grand National at the end of the card.

 

Race 1

Botti has run well in two hurdles starts in Australia having finished 2^nd at Pakenham and then 3^rd in a BM120 at Sandown. He goes back into maiden company here, but my concern is that he also drops in trip as he looks like he needs further based on his two runs so far. His jockey also said the same to the stewards after his Sandown run. He clearly has his chance, but chances are he will get going too late. Saint Eustace ran his best race yet over hurdles a couple of weeks ago when just being denied by 0.2L. If he can back that up then he has a chance, but he hasn't always looked the straightforward. Second Act is related to Stern Idol and has also come over from France although he failed to finish in a couple of hurdle races there. In Australia he's had 3 hurdle trials and has looked good enough in them. He has run in a couple of maidens on the flat as well finishing 2^nd to Crosshill 1^st up and then winning 2^nd up. Clearly has ability and given how they train them in France he will have been well schooled before he even got to Oz. Shakespeare was 3^rd on his hurdle debut a couple of weeks ago and was behind Saint Eustace. He travelled well for a long way, but faded after the last although he should improve for the run. Chatelaine won a BM78 at Sandown on the flat back in March, but hasn't been as good since. I did like the way he jumped in his trial a couple of weeks ago although he wasn't exactly put under too much pressure by the other runners that day.

 

I think this is a tricky race to start with. Second Act has the potential, but he's priced up accordingly against some horses who have run well in maidens so far this season. I will take a small chance on Shakespeare who looked the winner for a long way, but should come on for the run and hopefully he can have more of a finishing kick here.

 

Shakespeare 0.5pts @ 16/5 with Bet365

 

Race 2

Dr Colin is a fairly short price favourite here, but I am happy enough to take him on. He did win on the flat at Geelong last time, but it was only a BM58 so it was in the lowest grade. His trial hurdle win before that was only against 2 other rivals and I think he's been put in too short on the back of those efforts. Quota is 2^nd in the betting at the time of writing and I don't fancy him much either. He was well beaten on the flat last time and his hurdle trials didn't so a great deal. 

 

The Awesome Sun, Raise Your Sights and What Revolution were 2nd, 3^rd and 4^th to Platinum Spirit a couple of weeks ago. I think the form will be upheld here as I liked the way The Awesome Sun battled on in the closing stages. I will back him and I will also back Three Over Two. There was some promise in his 5^th at Sale and he followed that up with a 3^rd at Pakenham just behind Platinum Spirit who finished 2nd. He finished closer to him than The Awesome Sun did at Coleriane so I will also back him as I think he's a solid yardstick.

 

The Awesome Sun 0.5pts @ 9/2 with everyone

Three Over Two 1pt e/w @ 12/1 with Bet365 and William Hill

 

Race 3

All of these ran in various races at Coleraine a couple of weeks ago and Jekyll'n'hyde ran the fastest time. I was tempted to go with him, but I'm not certain that he is the best horse because that race was run at a strong pace which meant it was no real surprise the time was quicker. Platinum Spirit was visually the most impressive, but he's priced up accordingly. You can give most of the others a chance as well so it just looks another of those real tricky handicap hurdles we have seen in recent weeks so I'm going to leave it alone.

 

Race 4

The feature hurdle on the card and at the time of writing Raise You Ten has been backed into favouritism. He has only had one start over hurdles and he took the opening maiden on this card 24 months ago when looking impressive. He clearly had an injury as he went missing 88 weeks. He's had a couple of solid runs on the flat so far this prep to help get him ready for this, but I just don't think he should be favourite. If this was a handicap he would be getting lots more weight from Bedford and to go straight from a maiden into this sort of company is tough, even if you are trained by Maher and Eustace. Bedford has really surprised me in recent weeks as he has really hit form. He took a winner of 1 at Warrnambool and then took the big hurdle on the Pakenham card a couple of weeks late. I thought he ran really well in the Grand National Hurdle last time, where it looked like he just didn't stay so the drop back in trip should help. He has the best hurdles form in the race and for me is the one they have to beat.

 

Instigator was just 0.75L behind Bedford at Pakenham and wasn't that far behind him at Sandown so I'm sure he will run his usual solid race again. Dashing Willoughby finally won again a couple of starts back and was then 2^nd in the BM120 on the Sandown card earlier in the month. He wanted to hang in behind the winner that day though and this should be tougher. I am going to be sticking with Bedford though.

 

Bedford 1pt @ 12/5 with Bet365

 

Race 5

The bookies have Nelson and King's Charisma as joint favs for this and preference for me is to go with the chasing experience of Nelson. I never did get to the bottom if Nelson was the first horse to run in the Arc and then to run over fences, but he was 2^nd on his chasing debut before winning well at Coleraine a couple of weeks ago. He obviously has a big weight here, but he has the class edge for me over his rivals. King's Charisma is making his chasing debut and he has had a decent enough season over hurdles apart from last time where he was very disappointing. He's had 1 steeple trial and he jumped out to his right a bit which would be a small concern here and is one of the reasons why I would rather go with the chasing experience of Nelson. It's hard to see anything else winning as Nelson has the beating of a few of these already from the victory a couple of weeks ago.

 

Nelson 2pts @ 6/5 with Paddy Power, Betfair and Betfred

 

Race 6

The Grand National Steeplechase is the big race on the card and I just don't see how Stern Idol gets beaten. He's only been beaten twice in Australia over obstacles that was in the big hurdle on this card last season and in the Grand Annual where he seemingly didn't stay. Bell Ex One who beat him last year bids to do the same here, but I don't think he's been quite as good this year and he looked a bit slow over his fences in his steeple trial. Stern Idol won the Crisp Steeplechase by 25L at Sandown last time beating a few of these in the process. That was over 4200m and he has 4500m here, but he would have won over 4500m at Sandown and that is more of a stamina test given the hill there whereas Ballarat is flat. Like I say I can't see him not winning.

 

San Remo won the Grand National Hurdle at Sandown, but his chasing form previously was nowhere as good as his hurdles form. I guess he could have improved, but I can't see him improving enough to get near Stern Idol. Stern Idol clocked a 5 seconds quicker time as well which takes some doing. A few of these were behind Stern Idol in the Crisp, but I don't really see how any of them can reverse the form here. The one horse who I do think will run better though is Crosshill who was a bit disappointing at Sandown, but his jockey thinks the track didn't suit him and he will prefer Ballarat. I thought he ran well in the Grand Annual to finish 3^rd and this shorter trip should suit him. We know he has the class from when he was trained in Ireland and he looks over priced to hit the frame. I know he's 1/2, but I think even at those odds he's value so will be having a max bet on him.

 

Stern Idol 5pts @ 1/2 with everyone

Crosshill 0.5pts to place @ 3.4/1 with Bet365  0.25pts to win @ 25/1 with Bet365

[Non-League Predictions - 26th August]

It's my birthday today so hopefully I can make it a profitable one.

Aldershot v Wealdstone

Aldershot denied us last week as they nearly got the 3 points against York, but York scored in injury time. I think the game said more about how much York have struggled so far rather than Aldershot being anything special. We were unlucky not to collect on Wealdstone last Tuesday against Bromley and they deservedly got back to winning ways on Saturday when beating Fylde 3-2. The winner came very late on, but we have to factor in that Houghton scored one of his specials from inside his own half for Fylde which clearly is a bit of a freak goal. Wealdstone have been better than Aldershot for me so far this season so I am happy to back them again.

 

Altrincham v Chesterfield

I have watched most of Chesterfield's last 2 games against Oxford and Oldham and I have not been impressed at all. They were lucky to get the 3 points against Oxford, who played very well, and then they lacked ideas against an Oldham side who basically just sat back and let them have the ball. Oldham were even worse themselves although they did manage to create the best chances of the game despite being so poor. Often for me Oldham didn't even press Chesterfield that much in the final 3^rd and yet time and time again they lacked the quality to create a meaningful chance. For me this was a game Chesterfield should have won comfortably given how it played out, but the fact they didn't spoke volumes for me. Altrincham are more than good enough to cause them big problems and they have yet to taste defeat this season with 3 draws and a victory over Woking. They look decent value to win this.

 

Curzon Ashton v Scunthorpe

Curzon have scored in every game, but apart from when they scored 3 against Darlington on day 1 they have really struggled to create many opportunites with xG's of 0.83, 0.63 and 0.3. The game against Buxton last week must have been a tough watch with Buxton's xG just 0.28 and they only managed 9 shots between them. Granted they haven't lost yet, but they host the best team in the division and I don't think there will be too many chances to back them at odds against this season so I will take this one.

 

Mickleover v Hitchin (Southern Premier Central)

I said in the ante-post preview for this league that I wanted to add Mickleover to the bets, but I thought they were a little shorter than I was expecting. However not only am I going to back them to win on Saturday, I am also going to back them for the title. They have had a superb start to the season and I want them onside now even though I am taking a shorter price of 9/2. Our only bets so far were Coalville and they had a shocker last week losing 6-1 to Needham Market which was a huge surprise. I still have the belief that they will go close despite that, but Mickleover look to me like they will be big players. Hitchin have won 3 of their first 4 games, but they have had a kind fixture list and lost to Needham themselves.

 

Since I wrote the above last night they have now gone odds on for tomorrow so the price has gone for me. I would want at least Evens to get involved.

 

AFC Totton v Hanwell (Southern Premier South)

I think this looks the best bet of the weekend. Hanwell won their first 2 games, but that was only against Didcot (lost every game) and Basingstoke (struggled in their first 3 games). They then hosted Merthyr last week and lost 4-1 which suggests to me they are going to struggle against the better sides of the division which Totton should be one. One of our ante-post picks they have had a very good start to the season winning 3 and the only loss was to one of our other ante-post bets Salisbury. For me they should have too much for Hanwell and look a good price.

 

National League South

I haven't had too many bets so far in this league and I think it has been a tricky league to call so far. I have however been very impressed with Worthing and I am going to top up our ante-post bet on them to make it a point e/w. They won their first 3 games, including winning 3-0 at Torquay, before losing to Aveley last Saturday. Now I watched Aveley play Eastbourne last Monday and I was pretty impressed with the home side. They deserved the 3 points and I thought they looked the type of side who would make things difficult for plenty of teams this season so I wasn't entirely surprised that they managed to beat Worthing. However they only had 4 shots in the game and managed to score twice and Worthing had 21 shots. They also had a penalty which they scored but the ref ruled it out, which was the right decision, but then the ref gave a free kick to Aveley instead of allowing the penalty to be retaken. That goes in and obviously they get at least a point.

Prices from Friday afternoon

Wealdstone 1pt @ 9/5 with William Hill and Coral (2/1 with 365 and a little bit on Betfair exchange take up to 13/8)

Altrincham 1pt @ 3/1 with Paddy Power, Betfair and Betfred (7/2 with Bet365 and take up to 5/2)

Scunthorpe 2pts @ Evs with basically everyone (Hills are 11/10 and take up to 10/11)

AFC Totton 3pts @ Evs with Bet365, Skybet and Betfred (take up to 8/11)

 

Ante-Post

Worthing 0.5pts e/w @ 9/1 with Bet365 (Betway are 12/1 and Skybet 10/1)

Mickleover 1pt @ 9/2 with Bet365 and William Hill

[Non-League Ante-Post 23/24]

2 hours ago, yossa6133 said:

@Darran Any concern about all the ground stuff with Scnuthorpe? Looking at their forum, some seem to think it's all going to go pear shaped fast (court case trying to get them kicked out of their ground tomorrow). CCJ for £1,500 against them this week isn't a good sign.

 

Also, 888Sport have them 7/4 (13/8 general) at the weekend against Curzon, seems a good price given their decent run of form and they should appreciate the decent pitch there.

I don't think the ground issue will make a difference although it is a small worry obviously. The players are all on 2 year contracts. I think the fans are probably nervy given what a nightmare time of things they have had in recent years.

[Australian Jumps Season 2023]

The final meeting of the season is at Ballarat on Sunday so I have done the totals for the season ahead of it. I have staked 93pts and the returns are 98.71 so a small profit for the season so far. Hopefully it will go in the right direction on Sunday and I can make it another profitable season.

[Question]

It’s a very quiet day for me today so quiet I forgot to put them up. York and Boston the only bets and just a point on them.

[Non-League Predictions - 15th/16th August]

Bromley v Wealdstone

I thought Bromley looked miles off it on Saturday against Barnet. They created very little and whilst Barnet's first goal should have been ruled out for handball, they fully deserved their victory. Wealdstone will be very happy with their 4 point return so far having beaten York and drawn at Eastleigh. They look overpriced to me to make it a hat-trick of defeats for Bromley.

 

Eastleigh v Barnet

In quirk in the fixture list the two teams who the above two played on Saturday happen to also play each other on Tuesday. Eastleigh weren't great on Saturday. They created little with only one shot on target and an xG of just 0.42. Just like on Saturday Barnet have been backed already to win again, but I still think their is juice in the price. I was impressed with their performance on Saturday and it was pleasing to see given they are the biggest bet in the outright market. Clearly not many teams win their first 3 games of the season, but I think Barnet are more than capable of doing it.

 

Oxford City v Chesterfield

This really should be a comfortable win for the away side. Granted Rochdale only beat them 1-0 on Saturday, but it could have been more and Oxford created very little with just 1 shot on target. They still look a side miles away from the quality needed and they now host the favourites for the title. Chesterfield have already scored 9 goals in their 2 games and they should be adding to that here against the weakest side in the division. They look well worth backing to cover the -1 handicap.

 

York City v Altrincham

York have had a poor start to the season having lost both games so far and they may well lose again here as Altrincham look to remain unbeaten. They will have been disappointed that they didn't beat Dagenham, but it was superb effort to win at Woking on Saturday. They were very clinical in scoring 3 as they only had 8 shots for an xG of 0.77, but it they showed why they should never have been priced up as outsiders to win the league and with York looking like they need more time to gel I am happy to take them on.

 

Havant & Waterlooville v St Albans (Wednesday night)

I'm still feeling my way with Step 2 and whilst I had a few teams on my shortlist this is the only game which survived the chop. Havant have lost both games so far and whilst they might have been a bit unfortunate to lose on Saturday on the stats, it was another defeat at home in 2023 for them. I am happy to take them on again and whilst we are getting much shorter odds I still think there is value. St Albans beat Weymouth on the opening day and then more than held their own at Yeovil on Saturday when losing 2-1 which is going to be one of the toughest games they play all season. Play like they have done so far and I think they will pick up 3 points here.

 

Salisbury City v Swindon Supermarine (Southern Premier South)

Salisbury were my outside bet for the title and they beat my main picks for the title AFC Totton on Saturday in a really good performance. Amazingly they were put in at 9/4 to start with which was just a crazy price and whilst the market has obviously started to correct itself, I still think it hasn't gone far enough. They play a Swindon side who have lost both games so far and have conceded 11 goals in the process. 

 

Concord Rangers v Hashtag United (Isthmian Premier)

As I mentioned in the ante-post preview I can't stand Hashtag United, but you have to put those feelings to one side when punting and I think they are a bet here to beat Concord. Hashtag were involved in a great 2-2 with Dulwich on Saturday which gave a clue that they should be more than capable of holding their own in this division. Concord came down last season, but I don't think they will be in the promotion mix and they looked poor on Saturday against Enfield when losing 3-0. I suspect it could be one of those games that if it was taking place later in the season we would see the prices reversed so hopefully Hashtag can land the points here.

 

Dulwich Hamlet v Canvey Island (Isthmian Premier)

Speaking of Dulwich I make them a bet to beat the other team from Canvey Island on Tuesday night. I'm not sure why Dulwich aren't favourites to win this and they look the better side to me. Canvey did come from 2 down to win 3-2 on Saturday against Haringey which was clearly a good effort and obviously they did very well last season, but whilst it is no gimmie, like I say I don't see why Dulwich aren't favourites so they are the value bet. 

 

Potters Bar v Enfield (Isthmian Premier)

No surprise that Enfield have been well backed already, but they look a really good bet. Potters Bar struggled last season after Sammy Moore left and I think they will again this season as well. They lost 5-0 on Saturday at Carshalton and they host and Enfield side who looked very good in a 3-0 victory over Concord Rangers.

 

Prices from around 7pm on Monday.

 

Wealdstone 1pt @ 15/4 with Bet365, Paddy Power, William Hill and Betfair (take up to 3/1)

Barnet 1pt @ 7/4 with Bet365, Paddy Power, Betfair, Betfred and Ladbrokes (19/10 with Hills and 15/8 with Coral and take up to 6/4)

Chesterfield -1 1pt @ 7/4 with Bet365 (take up to 11/8)

Altrincham 1pt @ 2/1 with Bet365, William Hill, Betfred and Ladbrokes (21/10 with Coral and take up to 7/4)

St Albans 1pt @ 7/5 with Skybet, Betfred and Bet365 (take up to 5/4)

Salisbury 1pt @ 11/8 with Betfred and Skybet (take up to 11/10)

Hashtag 1pt @ 15/8 with Skybet, Paddy Power, Betfair and Betfred (take up to 6/4)

Dulwich Hamlet 1pt @ 7/4 with Paddy Power, Betfair and Betfred (take up to 11/8)

Enfield 3pts @ Evs with Skybet, Betfred (BetVictor are 23/20) (take up to 8/11)