Torque

Gael Monfils to win ATP Dubai @ 6.00 Betfair Exchange
Borna Coric to win ATP Dubai @ 10.00 Betfred
I'm going to stick my neck on the block and oppose Federer to take the title in Dubai by backing Monfils from the top half of the draw and Coric from the bottom half. I'm backing Monfils as he's in great form and really should make the last four at least as Berankis is beatable, and I'm backing Coric because he's beaten Federer before and so should be able to perform if he meets him in the last four.

Never mind all that... Go Mackie Go!!! 

I'm not saying I think Fucsovics will win just that as much of a paradox as it might seem, the lesser player compared to Kohlschreiber and Verdasco in Fucsovics has a better chance of causing an upset win IMHO. Now I've said that Federer will probably click into gear and beat Fucsovics easily. That's betting for you 
Oh and Fucsovics needn't be spectacular to beat Federer - Just ask Millman. Nobody will ever convince me that Millman beat Federer. Federer beat Federer. What Millman did, and for which he deserves enormous credit, is hung in there. If Fucsovics can hang tough in the same way it's possible Federer could do the rest for him.

Never mind all that... Go Mackie Go!!! 

My two cents on Federer v Fucsovics is that Fucsovics will never have a better chance to score a big win. Even if he goes a set down, he'll know he's still in it as Federer isn't closing out matches in straight sets with any kind of regularity at all. On top of that, Fucsovics took a set against Djokovic earlier in the season so a set against Federer must be a possibility and if it does go to three sets then who knows who takes the W. Kohli and Verdasco might have both fallen away but much of that probably has to do with all the losses they've suffered against Federer down the years. Fucsovics doesn't carry those kind of scars which could make him dangerous if he is able to be competitive in the same way Kohli and Verdasco were.

My two cents on Federer v Fucsovics is that Fucsovics will never have a better chance to score a big win. Even if he goes a set down, he'll know he's still in it as Federer isn't closing out matches in straight sets with any kind of regularity at all. On top of that, Fucsovics took a set against Djokovic earlier in the season so a set against Federer must be a possibility and if it does go to three sets then who knows who takes the W. Kohli and Verdasco might have both fallen away but much of that probably has to do with all the losses they've suffered against Federer down the years. Fucsovics doesn't carry those kind of scars which could make him dangerous if he is able to be competitive in the same way Kohli and Verdasco were.

Unlucky with this. Federer looked very shaky in the second set before the status quo was restored in the decider. I'd be very wary of backing Federer this season, despite the promising results at the Hopman Cup and to a lesser degree the Australian Open. I don't have any numbers to back it up so this is purely anecdotal, but as his level has dropped over the last year or so it seems to me that he's dropping the second set of matches on an increasingly regular basis and also not winning in straight sets as often as he used to. If I'm right about that then the chances are it's symptomatic of the drop in level that I mentioned and also his age - physically things are typically very different in your late 30's compared to your late 20's and also mentally concentration and focus can become more difficult. Because of who he is though and his name he'll probably continue to be priced very short against most players but I think most players would think they have a chance against him now - the aura is not the same anymore. It wouldn't surprise me if betting against him for the remainder of the season yielded a profit.

Unlucky with this. Federer looked very shaky in the second set before the status quo was restored in the decider. I'd be very wary of backing Federer this season, despite the promising results at the Hopman Cup and to a lesser degree the Australian Open. I don't have any numbers to back it up so this is purely anecdotal, but as his level has dropped over the last year or so it seems to me that he's dropping the second set of matches on an increasingly regular basis and also not winning in straight sets as often as he used to. If I'm right about that then the chances are it's symptomatic of the drop in level that I mentioned and also his age - physically things are typically very different in your late 30's compared to your late 20's and also mentally concentration and focus can become more difficult. Because of who he is though and his name he'll probably continue to be priced very short against most players but I think most players would think they have a chance against him now - the aura is not the same anymore. It wouldn't surprise me if betting against him for the remainder of the season yielded a profit.

Unlucky with this. Federer looked very shaky in the second set before the status quo was restored in the decider. I'd be very wary of backing Federer this season, despite the promising results at the Hopman Cup and to a lesser degree the Australian Open. I don't have any numbers to back it up so this is purely anecdotal, but as his level has dropped over the last year or so it seems to me that he's dropping the second set of matches on an increasingly regular basis and also not winning in straight sets as often as he used to. If I'm right about that then the chances are it's symptomatic of the drop in level that I mentioned and also his age - physically things are typically very different in your late 30's compared to your late 20's and also mentally concentration and focus can become more difficult. Because of who he is though and his name he'll probably continue to be priced very short against most players but I think most players would think they have a chance against him now - the aura is not the same anymore. It wouldn't surprise me if betting against him for the remainder of the season yielded a profit.

Unlucky with this. Federer looked very shaky in the second set before the status quo was restored in the decider. I'd be very wary of backing Federer this season, despite the promising results at the Hopman Cup and to a lesser degree the Australian Open. I don't have any numbers to back it up so this is purely anecdotal, but as his level has dropped over the last year or so it seems to me that he's dropping the second set of matches on an increasingly regular basis and also not winning in straight sets as often as he used to. If I'm right about that then the chances are it's symptomatic of the drop in level that I mentioned and also his age - physically things are typically very different in your late 30's compared to your late 20's and also mentally concentration and focus can become more difficult. Because of who he is though and his name he'll probably continue to be priced very short against most players but I think most players would think they have a chance against him now - the aura is not the same anymore. It wouldn't surprise me if betting against him for the remainder of the season yielded a profit.

Best analysis ever! 

Yeah, Joyce doesn't waste time either so looks a solid bet.  

Joe Joyce vs. Bermane Stiverne
Under 3.5 rounds @ 2.2 5dimes 4/10
If you think you've seen the WORST Bermane Stiverne EVER 14 months ago vs. Wilder II then you might get to see an even WORSE Bermane Stiverne tomorrow night. Stiverne weighed in at 254 pounds vs. Wilder II. It was the heaviest weight he weighed in since 2008. And what happened today? I can't help myself than laughing my ass off........he comes in at 273 POUNDS!!! Come on, give me a break. He's here to collect the paycheck. He looks in AWFUL shape. He will get a beating as long as he shares the ring with Joyce tomorrow. I doubt it lasts long. 

Best analysis ever! 

Dan Evans to beat John Isner at 2.65 with Unibet
Go Dan! Go!
Mackie Mcdonald to beat Rady Albot at 1.71 with Unibet
Go Mackie! Go!

Forget the clown Nick Kyrgios, funny that you even mention him with his form. Real joke of player!

@darko08 Keep going. A couple of winners or losers here and there mean nothing. What counts is how you do over hundreds and maybe even thousands of bets - that's what will tell you if you're on the right track 

Get to know the tracks
Years ago I started keeping notes on all the tracks …… whether they were right-hand, left-hand or straight, sharp or galloping, flat or undulating, uphill finish or 'easy' finish, length of home straight on turning tracks, stiff or yielding fences for chases, long run or short run from last obstacle
Unfortunately I no longer have those notes …… but it's all now in my head. Well until I start losing my marbles which probably isn't that far off now.
With younger horses who haven't raced much it doesn't add much value because they haven't run enough on different tracks for any pattern to emerge. But once you get to seasoned handicappers you can often see a pattern as to which 'type' of track they perform best at
old saying - Horses for Courses

@darko08 It's no better in men's tennis in the long run. In either case you're dealing with humans and all humans are fallible. Shock results happen with pretty much the same frequency I would say across both ATP and WTA matches. Last night for example, Khachanov managed to lose from a set up - at which point he was about 50 to 1 on to win - against someone ranked outside the top 200 on an indoor hard court which is arguably his favourite surface. Go figure 

Simple one for me is always take the best price. Take the time to shop around. It can make a big difference to your profit and also minimise your loss if things aren't going right.

Simple one for me is always take the best price. Take the time to shop around. It can make a big difference to your profit and also minimise your loss if things aren't going right.

Norrie has not played since the AO 1st round where he lost against Fritz 3-0.
Norrie record on clay: 7-7
On the other side, Cachin is a local player that has won the Qualification against Trungelliti and Quinzi in straight sets.
Cachin record on clay: 165-106
 
In resume, a clay-courter player already adapted on Cordoba's clay against a Hard surface player first clay match this year.
 
Cachin +1'5 sets at 1'58 with MarathonBet Stake 2'5/10

it's not another Chela v Schwank

Not too much activity on the thread for last year's comp but thought I'd post my early thoughts rather than keep them to myself. Would welcome any views on the following (especially re drop goals) or any other aspects of the tournament.
1: Outright market: Best prices are as follows with the "true" odds based on the Rugby Vision ratings in brackets.
Ireland 5/6 (11/10)
England 4/1 (12/5)
Wales 11/2 (11/2)
Scotland 18/1 (17/1)
France 22/1 (55/1)
Italy 1500/1 (>1000/1)
Ireland clear favourites, but a suggestion that they are a little too short. If you agree, I saw 11/10 "the field" with one firm or you could obviously lay Ireland. The RV ratings may flatter England suggesting they should be that short but there might be a case for backing them at 4/1 or better. The only bet I've had so far is to take 13/2 for Wales (Lads were 6/1 when I first looked and I was able to apply a price boost). Wales are actually above England in the World Rankings and, although they have 3 away games this year, they do host both Ireland and England.
Nothing particularly floats my boat on the spreads outright but I'd buy Wales at 25 if you gave me a free bet to use (pays 60-40-20-10-5-0 for 1st to 6th places).
I could've make a case for 5/6 no Grand Slam and 7/4 no Triple Crown but I'm not inclined to bet in either market and both have shortened slightly now.

Doesn't look strange to me, Goerges with some health problems and this kind of comebacks is fairly standard in WTA.