Torque

@darko08 I'm speculating of course when I say that Khachanov might not like the tournament, but one thing I've noticed over the years is that certain players seem to do well - and conversely not so well - at certain tournaments. Sometimes it's the conditions, for example Estrella Burgos excelled at altitude in the Ecuador Open, other times it could be things that have nothing to do with the actual tennis, for example how well organised the tournament is or what the accommodation is like or even where a tournament falls in a player's schedule which can link to motivation. There's all kinds of things which can throw a player off and mean that they don't perform at their peak at certain tournaments.

Each to their own, but I never go anywhere near exhibitions. It's hard enough in normal tournament play to gauge things like motivation, and it's even harder to do in exhibition play where the result really doesn't matter. Who knows if a player is using an exhibition to try out a new shot or a new strategy - if I was a player, exhibitions would be where I would take chances with my game and try out new things to see how they work.

Each to their own, but I never go anywhere near exhibitions. It's hard enough in normal tournament play to gauge things like motivation, and it's even harder to do in exhibition play where the result really doesn't matter. Who knows if a player is using an exhibition to try out a new shot or a new strategy - if I was a player, exhibitions would be where I would take chances with my game and try out new things to see how they work.

Each to their own, but I never go anywhere near exhibitions. It's hard enough in normal tournament play to gauge things like motivation, and it's even harder to do in exhibition play where the result really doesn't matter. Who knows if a player is using an exhibition to try out a new shot or a new strategy - if I was a player, exhibitions would be where I would take chances with my game and try out new things to see how they work.

Although this idea appears to have shown a profit since January 1st (if we exclude the National League) much of the testing had been done incognito with nothing proved up front, which is not an ethical way to proceed. In light of that I'll start a new thread, Correct Scores (second shift), where I'll publish all the predictions beforehand and take it through to the season end. So, I'm drawing a line under this particular thread . . . here's the line . . .
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I wouldn't put my money on a exhibition match between this two. this is a flip coin

I'd rather back Cerundolo against Andujar. Good young player on an upward curve against an older player who whilst most comfortable on clay hasn't had a win in ages.

Asking for a reasoning is being "jumped on" and "unfriendly". lol what a world.
@CzechPunter i'm going to follow you with Diego outright, but also add in
Garin to win ATP Cordoba at 7 with Betfair
I've seen him play on clay last year and I think he improves year on year, is a fighter as well and can see him going far.

If I'm interpreting that correctly and you're suggesting that users on this thread haven't been friendly towards you - and also that there's some sort of clique here where long-term posters are friendly to each other but not to anyone new, then I'm afraid I don't agree. There's a difference between people being unfriendly and people telling you something you don't want to hear or don't agree with.

To illustrate the point, if I put up a pick with no reasoning then I'm sure I'd be asked for some. We don't discriminate here - or at least I hope we don't 

Certainly didn't bore me @OddsPredictor and I'm sure I'm not the only one that feels like that. The bottom line though is that for better or worse, this thread requires reasoning. I understand that you aren't able to provide that - beyond that a player is worth backing for reasons of perceived value - and so I'd suggest that you post in the glory hunt thread. Last year a member was doing something similar to you - can't remember the name - and he ended up posting all his picks on the glory hunt thread for a period and also posted on here when there were some additional reasons besides value for his picks.
It's up to you what you do of course, but I'll finish by saying again that this is a friendly thread it's just that it's set up in such a way that straight picks are welcome as long as there are a few words to back them up. Not everyone worships exclusively at the altar of mathematical value and so other reasons for why a bet is being taken are appreciated and can help people to decide whether to follow or not 

Certainly didn't bore me @OddsPredictor and I'm sure I'm not the only one that feels like that. The bottom line though is that for better or worse, this thread requires reasoning. I understand that you aren't able to provide that - beyond that a player is worth backing for reasons of perceived value - and so I'd suggest that you post in the glory hunt thread. Last year a member was doing something similar to you - can't remember the name - and he ended up posting all his picks on the glory hunt thread for a period and also posted on here when there were some additional reasons besides value for his picks.
It's up to you what you do of course, but I'll finish by saying again that this is a friendly thread it's just that it's set up in such a way that straight picks are welcome as long as there are a few words to back them up. Not everyone worships exclusively at the altar of mathematical value and so other reasons for why a bet is being taken are appreciated and can help people to decide whether to follow or not 

Certainly didn't bore me @OddsPredictor and I'm sure I'm not the only one that feels like that. The bottom line though is that for better or worse, this thread requires reasoning. I understand that you aren't able to provide that - beyond that a player is worth backing for reasons of perceived value - and so I'd suggest that you post in the glory hunt thread. Last year a member was doing something similar to you - can't remember the name - and he ended up posting all his picks on the glory hunt thread for a period and also posted on here when there were some additional reasons besides value for his picks.
It's up to you what you do of course, but I'll finish by saying again that this is a friendly thread it's just that it's set up in such a way that straight picks are welcome as long as there are a few words to back them up. Not everyone worships exclusively at the altar of mathematical value and so other reasons for why a bet is being taken are appreciated and can help people to decide whether to follow or not 

OK but remember you asked.
The OddsPredictor System works by rating each player. Players were given a starting rating for January 2019 based upon 2018 world rankings. After each match the players have a rating gain or rating loss based upon a statistical table created from past seasons. The players' Ratings change after each Result and the Prediction of likely results can be obtained from the difference in rating between the players. For the OddsPredictor system to work a number of variables must be set in the spreadsheet. Defaults have been set but users can amend these variables and therefore affect the number of predictions and level of stakes. Here are a few of the variables that can be changed;
Stake is the maximum amount to risk per match. Typically recommended stakes will be 50% of this amount. This allows you to match OddsPredictor to suit your pocket. 
Rating Factor is the maximum rating change that can occur from one match to the next. So for example if the player's success is expected to be h% and the player wins then the team's rating will increase by (100-h)% of the R Factor.
Rating High above which the R Factor is halved
Rating Low below which the R Factor is doubled
Bonus is the amount added to the rating change for victories by 2 sets to nil.
Surface is the independence between different surface performances. 100% being fully independent
Risk Percentage represents the level of difference between the predicted odds and the bookmakers odds before a result is eligible for prediction. The higher this factor the fewer but more likely predictions are made.
High maximum margin of risk for determining predictions. Useful for excluding matches with exceptional factors.
Start is the number of matches that must be played in a season before predictions are made. This allows time for the predictions to adjust for changes in players' strength from one season to the next.
Ex From and Ex To allows an exclusion period for predictions.
Longshot is the lowest forecast likelihood before excluding a prediction as a longshot. Enter 0% to allow all predictions.
Wiggle Room is the capacity for the system to modify the longshot.
Difference in Rating beyond which no predictions are selected
Knowledge is the level of book knowledge to alter future players' ratings if proved correct.
The system attempts to predict the 'TRUE' odds of a match if such a thing actually exists.
No attempt is made to necessarily select the most likely winner only value is of importance.
Feel free to download my spreadsheets from the OddsPredictor.Org.UK website which is of course completely free.   Thank you for your question but I expect I have bored everyone to death.   PS of the three selections posted to this thread in error 2 won so overall a small profit which is precisely what I am looking for.   3 matches is obviously a tiny sample so means nothing in itself but this season so far I have achieved a return of 13% from 50 selections so personally happy.    As stated in the very first post this was posted here in error and obviously no one here is interested so I will depart.  

And this is a friendly thread in fairness - the vast majority of the time. Been on here a long time and whilst there's been a few trolls, on the whole people on here are genuine and share tips as well as info so it's a thread that has a good feel to it for me 

Well, I'm terribly sorry if you're insulted, we're all mostly friendly chaps in here, but we also like to have a chat about stuff, not only percentages, at least when we don't know where they are coming from. 

Hi @OddsPredictor! Some reasoning would be appreciated, if it's only some sort of a system, it'd be a better fit for Glory Hunters.

New Superleague season starts tonight which should give this thread a chance of emerging from hibernation! After all, I am the forum's undisputed King of Rugby League betting!* 
Wigan v Warrington: 20 points on French to score a try at 13/8 with Fred
 
*based on quantity  of posts rather than quality of selections!

No, that is just Pliskova. She never looks like running or happy or angry or anything basically
 

Just had a quick look at the outrights and this price on the exchanges looks worth taking...
Daniil Medvedev to win ATP Australian Open @ 11.00 Betfair Exchange
Most likely Djokovic wins this, but if he doesn't a Medvedev win wouldn't surprise me. After all, he can beat all those around or above him in the betting. He's beaten Djokovic more than once already and gave him his toughest test in this tournament last year, he very nearly got the better of Nadal in the US Open final and Federer is likely to struggle to win here now after being pushed all the way against Millman. On the basis of his strong end to last season it seems likely he'll win one of the Grand Slams sooner rather than later - I'll be hoping it's much sooner 

Again I agree with you @money44 Kerber's consistency should see her through. Pavlyuchenkova played about as well as she can play against Pliskova - the two points she won when facing set point in the second set were particularly good especially considering the situation - and even then as you said her win was about as narrow as you can get.

@money44 Completely agree about Pliskova. Served terribly and without her serve she's bang average and would be hovering around the top 50. Watching her last night all I could keep thinking was how on earth has she won as many titles as she has and how is she ranked 2 in the world, and of course the answer is her serve - when it's working.

I watched the entire Pavlychenkova match.. She played unbelievable as sometimes she tends to do. Having said all of that.. Karolina Pliskova turned out to be a great matchup for her.. Firstly Pliskova was serving borderline terrible.. She had 6 aces and 4 double faults for the match, but only 62% first serves in which I find hard to believe.. As I watched the match it was just an onslaught of missed serves from Pliskova.. Her baseline game wasn't great either. So I believe that she made Pavlychenkova look alot better, and was the perfect opponent for Anastasia to really look spectacular, and indeed she did. 
If Pliskova is the ace queen on the wta tour.. most of her game does rely on having this enormous weapon. It's true she's got good groundstrokes, and can rival the top competitors, but not yesterday she didn't.. Pavly's ground game was better, and this allowed for complete control of the match.. Look at the scoreline.. She still barely won the match 7-6, 7-6 and she played as well as she possibly could.  She also double faulted 11 times with 5 aces.. I think it's very farfetched to bet on her in the next round vs Kerber, because Angelique is going to return many more balls than Pliskova, and eventually will force the errors.. The slice backhand of Kerber is not a shot that Pav's can just easily direct down the line for a winner like she was doing against Karolina's flat balls.. h2h in this matchup is 7-7- also surprisingly with Pav winning the last match, and Kerber the two prior to that. I do like Pavlychenkova as a person, and a player.. She's really nice woman etc... but you won't find me looking to bet on her next match, and this means something because I did bet on her to beat Pliskova in the last round.  But, I am entertaining a bet for Kerber right now as we speak. 
Gl gents.. Great picks from what I saw @Robinnho, and to Darko and CZech that liked the Rublev pick above.. Well maybe you didn't catch the Zverev match.. He was murdering the ball "up the line" at will and is in pristine form.. My only question marks on his game right now are the fitness levels which I think is normal for him, and I don't see him limping with a knee situation or things like this, and his serve was not as potent as it usually is.. Now I believe the match vs Verdasco was more of a casual affair walking through the park.. He's very comfortable securing that victory, but I have pretty big feeling there is alot more service prowess held in his backpack for a big match vs Rublev who he has never lost to. Zverev looks very confident in his post match interviews to me, and just really enjoying life and his tennis right now. 

Exactly my sentiments, but maybe like me you enjoy the chase even more than the kill, find investigating & number crunching extremely therapeutic.
All too easy in this challenge to have the solutions throwing up a disproportionate number of 1-1 draws, being the most frequent of scores as you've pointed out. Also predicting too few games where one or both team fails to score, where as your stats indicate the home team fails to score in over 20% of games, which increases to over 30% when looking at away team scores. I'm trying to address this by minimizing the error of goals scored by each team rather than aiming for 12X accuracy.
I've used the same technique now with Championship and L1 & L2 games since Jan 1st, and overall the method just about breaks even which is very encouraging in such a high overround environment. L1 & L2 both show profits, it's the Championship which has spoiled the party where returns have been abysmal!

Certainly was on - nearly 60 unforced errors which is embarrassing. Without all those errors there was no way CSN was winning.