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CzechPunter

Tennis Tips - February 10 - February 16

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I will post the first bet for this week :ok

Karen Khachanov to beat Fabio Fognini at 1.55 with 888

Fognini has never been a good indoor court player (he has achieved some good results in Moscow and St Petersburg a few years ago but nothing else) and this is the first time he will play in Rotterdam. Khachanov has never won a match in Rotterdam but the three times he has played here he was very close. In 2017 he lost in 2 close TB against Coric. In 2018 he lost in a 3 set match against Kohlschreiber (6-3, 6-7, 6-7). In 2018 he lost in a 3 set match against Griekspoor (6-3, 3-6, 2-6). As I said, Khachanov style fits more with this kind of courts. Khachanov best results have been on indoor courts. In 2018 he won the Paris Master (the best title of his career, by far) and he also won the ATP of Marseille and the Kremlin Cup in the same year so 3 of his 4 ATP titles have been on indoor tournaments.
 

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GL @darko08 you might need it. Khachanov was terrible last year against Griekspoor - he should have won easily and especially after winning the first set - so I'd want much better odds to back him against Fognini who is quite capable of turning it on and playing well against anyone and on any surface when the mood takes him. The fact Khachanov has never won at this tournament suggests he might not like it in Rotterdam for some reason. Still, maybe he'll snap his bad run at this edition :ok

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@Torque I don’t think so (I hope). What reason could be? The first two matches played there against Coric and Kohls were too close (4 TBs lost). The match against Griekspoor… well that was pathetic, but I remember that his first part of the season was horrible (too much pressure after an incredible 2018 I guess…).

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@darko08 I'm speculating of course when I say that Khachanov might not like the tournament, but one thing I've noticed over the years is that certain players seem to do well - and conversely not so well - at certain tournaments. Sometimes it's the conditions, for example Estrella Burgos excelled at altitude in the Ecuador Open, other times it could be things that have nothing to do with the actual tennis, for example how well organised the tournament is or what the accommodation is like or even where a tournament falls in a player's schedule which can link to motivation. There's all kinds of things which can throw a player off and mean that they don't perform at their peak at certain tournaments.

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Harold Mayot (-2.5) to beat Pavel Kotov at 1.87 with Pinnacle

I was very impressed by Mayot during the Aussie part of the season and, unless some off-court issues start to interfere with his career, he should do really well in the rest of the season as well. He'll be taking on Kotov, a guy that made quite some progress in 2019 but that is win-less so far in the new season, so I have no idea why the default line isn't at 3.5 here. Mayot is the real deal imo and one of the most exciting juniors at the moment.

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Marketa Vondrousova to beat Ajla Tomjlanovic at 1.67 with William Hill

Vondrousova played her first match in Adelaide after been 6 months out (since Wimbledon, where she lost against Brengle in 2 sets). She had some kind of problem in her hand and she was operated after retiring from the US Open. In Adelaide she won a couple of matches in straight sets (against Rodionova and Maria Tatjana) and she finally lost against Barty in 2 sets in the QF. Her last match was in the AO where she lost in the first round against Kuznetsova in a 3 set match. Vondrousva W/L record in this kind of courts is very good (41-6). In 2019 she reached the Final in Budapest (the only tournament she played on indoors) beating there at Georgina Garcia Perez, Blinkova, Irina Begu and Poptapova and losing in the Final in 3 sets against another great indoor player, Van Uytvanck. Tomjlanovic had a very decent start of the season but her results on indoor hard courts are horrible (12-14). She only has played 2 matches on indoor courts in the last 2 years (in Moscow) and she lost both.  The first one was against Pavlyuchenkova (7-5, 6-4) and the second one against Gracheva (6-3, 6-2). 

Elena Rybakina to beat Katerina Siniakova at 1.36 with bet365

Rybakina has started the season in a very good form. She did Final in Shenzhen and she won in Hobart. In the AO she lost in the third round against Barty in straight sets after winning against Minnen and Pera (also in straight sets) so her record in this 2020 is very impressive (11-2). She said that where she feels more comfortable is on grass courts but she has a very good W/L record on all the surfaces. Siniakova is in a very bad moment and she’s only winning matches on doubles. The last time she won a match on singles was in October (in the China Open, against Ostapenko). She’s in a 5 losing streak (Wozniacki, Mladenovic, Hercog, Alexandrova and Kvitova) and the worse of all is that she has not won a single set in any of these matches. Her last match was very painful for her because she was absolutely destroyed by Kvitova (6-1, 6-0). I remember her crying while she was playing the final games of that match. Soon or later Siniakova will start to win matches against because she’s a great player but the difference between these 2 players nowadays is too big to not choose Rybakina in this one.

Ekaterina Alexandrova (2-0) to beat Daria Kasatkina at 2.10 with William Hill

Kasatkina is in a very bad form since a long time and the feelings for this new season are not good. In Auckland she won in the first round against Carla Suarez in a 3 set match, but she was destroyed in the second round against Anisimova. In Adelaide she lost a set against an unknown 17 years old player, Armani Banks, in her first match of the qualy and after that she lost in straight sets in the first round against Bencic (6-4, 6-4). In the first round of the AO she was destroyed by Keys (6-3, 6-2). Alexandrova results in the last 2 years have been impressive and she has started this year incredibly well. She won in Shenzhen (Siniakova, Shuai Peng, Qiang Wang, Muguruza and Rybakina). In the AO she won a couple of matches (Teichmann and Krejcikova) before losing against Kvitova (6-1, 6-2). This kind of surface is perfect for Alexandrova so I can’t see Kasatkina winning against her.

Kristina Mladenovic to beat Van Uytvanck at 1.83 with Bethard

Mladenovic has achieved good results in this tournament. She won here in 2017 and reached the Final in 2018 (the last year she lost in the first round against Ostapenko in a 3 set match). Just 4 months ago she reached the SF in Moscow (she won against Putintseva, Sevastova and Bertens) and she won couple of matches in Linz (Siniakova and Vekic) so despite her bad results on singles in the last years she’s still a very good player in this kind of courts. Van Uytvanck is also a very good player on indoor courts but she’s not in a good form. She has lost her 2 matches 2020 (in Hobart against Cornet and in the AO against Fiona Ferro). She also lost her last match of 2019 in 2 sets in Limoges, against Sara Sorribes (played on indoors). Before that she had to retired from Luxembourg for an injury so the last time she won a match was in October (in Linz, against Bonaventure). I don’t expect an easy match for Mladenovic because both players are very good on indoors but Mladenovic loves to play in Russia and she’s in better than form than Van Uytvanck.

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You Xiaodi to beat Elien Perez at 2.20 with Parions Sport

The Chinese already beat the Australian relatively easily in 2 sets last September in Zhengzhou on hard. The conditions seem similar to me given the proximity between China and Thailand so I expect for another good performance from the Chinese here

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Arina Rodionova to beat Nao Hibino at 2.15 with Parions Sport

 

These 2 players have already faced each other 5 times (always on hard) and the Australian/Russian won 4 of them. Note also that the only match they played in Asia (Tianjin) was won by Rodionova in October 2019.

 

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@money44 I am, but not for too long 😅. I was going to post Ostapenko to win in Saint Petersburg at 51.00 but now i have seen that it has dropped to 26.00... When i saw the first half of the draw the first thing that came to my mind is how open it is. We have Konta and Bencic as the most favorite ones of it but none of them is in a good form. Konta has not won a match since October due to her knee problems she suffered the last season and Bencic is a very unstable player (she can easily lost her mind as she did in the AO against Kontaveit, losing that match 6-1, 6-0). Kvitova, Bertens and all the players with more victories on indoors (Mladenovic, Van Uytvanck, Vondrousova) are in the second half. Ostapenko W/L record on this surface is impressive and she won a few months ago in Luxembourg (Mcnally, Mertens, Lottner, Blinkova and Gorges) and she reached the Final in Linz (Korpatsch, Cornet and Rybakina), losing it against Gauff in a 3 set match. She will be with confidence after her matches in the Fed Cup. She has won against Sofia Kenin and lost against Serena in 2 TB...

Edited by darko08

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I like these for today, all with BV.

10pts Patcharin Cheapchandej to beat Leonie Kung (WTA Hua Hin) @ 4.00

I'll take a chance on the home player in this one. Kung is a good young prospect, but she's yet to win on the WTA tour and this is only her second main draw appearance. Cheapchandej hasn't managed to break through at this level either, but she's played exclusively in Thailand during the last couple of years and won tournaments and that could help her here.

20pts Peangtarn Plipuech to beat Chloe Paquet (WTA Hua Hin) @ 3.10

Another home player that I like is Plipuech. She had Sanders on the ropes in final qualifying before being beaten in three, and I wouldn't say that Paquet is all that much better than the Australian despite the difference in rankings. On top of that, Paquet is quite inconsistent and although she's coming here in good form I'm not sure she can be relied upon to maintain it. 

15pts Lorenzo Sonego to beat Pablo Cuevas (ATP Buenos Aires) @ 2.60

Finally I want to oppose Cuevas against Sonego, which at first glance doesn't look like the smartest thing to do as the Italian is on a long losing run. However, all but one of those losses were away from his favoured clay, and he remains a player of potential on the surface. Cuevas, on the other hand, looks on the wane to me and I wouldn't be surprised if he dropped in the rankings this year. He got a couple of wins in Cordoba, but it gets harder to play the grinding style of tennis that he plays with each passing year.

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My fault Darko .. I got sidetracked with some situation here.. Interesting odds on Ostapenko @ 51... Surprised me. Yeah Ostapenko is no joke on the indoors.. Not sure why it helps her so much. But, I did notice a huge improvement with that last year. 

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8 hours ago, FrenchPunter said:

You Xiaodi to beat Elien Perez at 2.20 with Parions Sport

The Chinese already beat the Australian relatively easily in 2 sets last September in Zhengzhou on hard. The conditions seem similar to me given the proximity between China and Thailand so I expect for another good performance from the Chinese here

I will be surprised and impressed if you win this bet.. I see that Xiaodi has 1-0 h2h over Ellen Perez on a small tournament 2019.. I don't think it holds any value for this match, and can Perez can adjust her game this time maybe.. Perez has also advanced through two qualifying rounds here quite easily.. I am very unfamiliar with both players, especially Xiaodi.. Good luck brother. 👍

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@darko08 I know that we picked Bublik wrong last time, but I don't see Barrere as the favorite in the match.. I think 1.9 odds for each player is reasonable.. Bublik is the more talented, and respected player.. I also think he has a good chance to win the match because Barrere has struggled a little bit in qualies I guess.  Not sure what Bublik was doing in the Goffin match, but I did see him playing some decent tennis at times.. The only way i see Bublik losing is if he really is dealing with some injury on his leg.. i've noticed he is playing with a sleeve there for now.  I've got 55% chance on Bublik sporting odds 2.11. 

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1 hour ago, money44 said:

@darko08 I know that we picked Bublik wrong last time, but I don't see Barrere as the favorite in the match.. I think 1.9 odds for each player is reasonable.. Bublik is the more talented, and respected player.. I also think he has a good chance to win the match because Barrere has struggled a little bit in qualies I guess.  Not sure what Bublik was doing in the Goffin match, but I did see him playing some decent tennis at times.. The only way i see Bublik losing is if he really is dealing with some injury on his leg.. i've noticed he is playing with a sleeve there for now.  I've got 55% chance on Bublik sporting odds 2.11. 

I watched Bublik's matches in Montpellier and he comes across as a total nut-case. Guy definitely has the talent, but has the tendency to lose his cool and spray errors all over. Worse, goes big on second serves and double faults and how can I even forget the cheek to go for underarm serves during the most crucial junctures during a match. I find him to be very inconsistent, but that's me. Barrere looked pretty solid against Dimitrov, didn't have to do much because Dimitrov was hell bent on losing that match on his own. I think this match is a bit of a toss-up, would give a slight edge to Barrere because of his consistent strokes. Good luck with your bet!

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Natalia Kostic @ 8.0 to beat Zheng - Hua Hin

Rating 20% chance to win. I have seen a little bit of Kostic and reviewed some her match results. Its not great, but she has wins over some known players, and I am suspicious that Zheng is not in form.. Could be completely wrong but its enough of a chance for me to try it.  she looked tired or in pain vs Osaka at AO. again this is all speculation. 

Edited by money44

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I should have posted the 2-0 or some kind of games handicap for the Rybakina-Siniakova match…:wall .Well, my last 2 bets for today and tomorrow.

Mayer/Molteni to beat P.Cuevas/Dellien at 1.57 with William Hill

None of these players are doubles players except for Molteni (59). Molteni/Mayer have played some matches together. In Cordoba they reached the Final (they won against Duran/Londero and Gonzalez/Martin). Dellien/Cuevas have played 2 matches together and they lost both in straight sets. The first one was 10 months ago in Houston against Chardy/Martin and the second one was in Cordoba against Bagnis/Pella.

Jelena Ostapenko to beat Alize Cornet at 1.83 with 888

Ostapenko has a very good W/L record on indoors. In October she won in Luxembourg (Mcnally, Mertens, Lottner, Blinkova and Gorges) and reached the Final in Linz (Korpatsch, Cornet, Rybakina and Alexandrova), losing it against Gauff in a 3 set match. She did really well in the Fed Cup, winning against Sofia Kenin and losing against Serena by 2 TB. The last time they played was in Linz (played also on indoors) and Ostapenko won that match (Cornet retired when she was losing 7-5, 4-1). Ostapenko style fits more with this kind of surface and the only concern I have with this one is that Cornet has already played 2 matches here (Ivakhnenko and Zvonareva).

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My bets for today is as follows:

Grigor Dimitrov to beat (-1.5 sets) Denis Shapovalov at 3.50 with Unibet

Grigor played pretty awfull last week in a tournament he didn't care about. Now it's another week and completely different circumstances. It would be typical if we get to see the real Grigor tonight winning this easily. After all he's got a pretty good history in Rotterdam.

Bernard Tomic to beat (-1.5 sets) Go Soeda at 3.55 with Unibet

Bernard has the level in him to win a match like this in straight sets and he can do it more often than not provided that he cares about playing at all. He looked to be in the mode yesterday when he beat Denis Istomin in 3 sets and I wouldn't be surprised to see Bernard winning this in straight sets.

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Well, of course he had chances. Moving on...

Radu Albot to beat Jannik Sinner at 3.41 with Pinnacle

Nikoloz Basilashvili to beat Andrey Rublev at 3.45 with Pinnacle

Of course, I suppose that I should be trying to regain some confidence by backing favorites and what not, but I like these odds no matter how things are going to turn out, since that's how you should do things really. Sinner and Rublev are both up-and-coming forces, but Sinner hasn't really convinced me so far in this season and I didn't like his performance against Fucsovics in the AO at all, while Nikoloz is the mercurial guy that can beat anyone on a good day - and Rublev is bound to get some bad results here and there, with his previous appearances in Rotterdam being pretty much as poor as they could possibly be.

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Nikoloz Basilashvilli to beat Andrey Rublev @ 3.5 with William Hill

Just confirming this is a bet for me also.. Actually this was one of the highest rated bets i had coming in today.. I think there is a quite few possibilities where underdogs can win in the next day or two.. I hope this is one of them.. 

I believe that Basilashvilli tanked the Australian open match vs Verdasco, and wasn't giving his full effort there.. He knows he's not ready to win that tournament, and maybe was consering his energy a bit. Rotterdam is a big tournament in my opinion.  Nikoloz has won first round match here last year, and as Czech Punter said about Rublev.. well i agree with the analysis on him, and think this is also a bad spot for him. 

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For today...

15pts Hubert Hurkacz to beat Stefanos Tsitsipas (ATP Rotterdam) @ 3.30 Betfair Exchange

Although Tsitsipas leads the h2h, matches between these two tend to be close which makes me think it's worth backing Hurkacz. Both players had disappointing performances at the Australian Open, but before that Hurkacz had a good run in Auckland whereas it feels like Tsitsipas hasn't really got started this season yet. This could be where the Greek gets up and running for the year, but Hurkacz definitely has the ability to make him wait a little longer for a run of wins.

15pts Pedro Martinez to beat Fernando Verdasco (ATP Buenos Aires) @ 2.70 Boylesports

I have to go against Verdasco in this one. The veteran Spaniard wasn't great in his loss to Taberner last week in Cordoba, whereas Martinez has picked up a few wins on the dirt recently and heads into this match having successfully negotiated qualifying. He's a promising young Spanish player, and as long as he isn't overawed playing against his veteran compatriot he should be able to give him a game.

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For me Hurkacz also has a chance on this one.. I think the odds are pretty accurate. But, you listed better odds than i had available .. i was mentioning the odds on my book which is 3

Edited by money44

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Xinyun Han to beat Qiang Wang at 8.15 with Parions Sport

 

This bet seems crazy and it probably is, but surprisingly Han leads 4-1 in the h2h. Note that Wang's only victory was acquired on retirement in 2015. All the matches took place under the same conditions in Asia so a new miracle is possible. I think that a SMALL coin is worth putting and thanks to Dimitrov's easy victory yesterday I can afford to loose this kamikaze odd without any pain..

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I placed a bet on Han also before i read this .. h2h record was astonishing.. worth a small punt.. I hope that's not a death sentence since i lost last match in Hua Hin.. Maybe another huge surprise in the sports world today. happens all the time in basketball. 

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26 minutes ago, money44 said:

I placed a bet on Han also before i read this .. h2h record was astonishing.. worth a small punt.. I hope that's not a death sentence since i lost last match in Hua Hin.. Maybe another huge surprise in the sports world today. happens all the time in basketball. 

It could be fun to see Wang lose here after she defeated Serena Williams in AO :hope

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