harry_rag

Could that be recency bias at play @Fader - in the long run maybe research and stats is more profitable than your gut. Hard to tell without records to refer to, but it's certainly an interesting topic.

I have had three times now where I've fancied a player, did some research on stats etc and changed my mind. Only for the original player to win. Gut feeling, alot of the time, seems to work for me. Another poor session there. Hoping for something better tonight as the quality is most definitely a big step-up for the majority of these four matches :
D. Van Duijvenbode Vs B. Brooks
J. Henderson Vs M. Kantele
L. Humphries Vs P. Lim
J. Wade Vs C. Rydz
I'm looking forward to seeing Van Duijvenbode, Humphries and Rydz again tonight. We'll get nothing good, odds wise, for Van Duijvenbode. In the Hendo Vs Kantele match though, Henderson will have a match on his hands, I feel. He really should have too much consistency for Kantele though. He would be the worry in a four fold consisting of Van Duijvenbode, Henderson, Humphries and Wade. However, Rydz is a class player and could easily turn up tonight and beat Wade.
2.5pts J.Henderson to beat M.Kantele and score the most 180s 6/5 paddypower
4pts L. Humphries to beat P.Lim, Most 180s and Highest Checkout 6/4 paddypower
------------------------------------------------
2pts Wade, Humphries & Henderson 5/2 paddypower
1.5pts Van Duijvenbode, Henderson, Humphries & Wade all to hit the most 180s in their matches 9/1 skybet
0.5pts saver accy - Van Duijvenbode -1.5 sets / Rydz to win and most 180s / Humphries and most 180s / Kantele 22/1 paddypower
 

For anyone still struggling, you have to switch to desktop version to set minimum SP odds.  It won't work on mobile version. 
 
Hope that helps 

Cards ✔️
 
P/L + 14.38 

Hello, thank you for making contact and your interest in this.
It is actually quite straighforward, you select to back your selection at Betfair SP. There is then a "Set SP odds limit" box to tick on the Betfair SP section and you simply put 5.0 in the option then for what odds you want the "min" to be. The system is built/recorded using BSP so I can't comment about other exchanges/using BOG etc.
 
 
 
 
 
 

All about Kane for me in the big game tonight. Backing him for an assist has been profitable and there still seems to be mismatch between his goalscorer price and his assist price to me. Accoring to Whoscored he has 9 goals and 10 assists in his 12 Premier League appearances. My bets, in ascending order of muggishness, are as follows.
To assist a goal at 5/1 with Lads (boosted from 19/4, I'd have taken 9/2 with Sky Bet or even 4/1 PP)
To score a goal at 2/1 with Fred (limited stake for this "Wednesday Football Special" boost but just about worth taking)
To assist 2 or more goals at 50/1 Sky Bet
To assist a goal and have a shot on target in each half at 17/1 PP
To assist a goal and have 3 or more shots on target at 25/1 PP
To assist Son and Son to assist Kane at 66/1 Betway (or 50s Sky Bet)
He may have an off night but the assist bet is worth a "proper" bet for me, the scorer odds are ok and the others are not the worst "interest" bets to stick a small amount on.

you can set sp min odds limit when backing at bfsp...just click 5 and let run(i think this is correct) 

Presumably you use a Bot to enter your bet at Betfair SP with the command that the bsp must not be below 5.0.
This avoids sitting at the computer just before every selection runs, although the downside is perhaps that early bigger bookmaker prices are not taken.

I have same problem of so prices occasionally drifting out of 'system' price... But it's breakeven out of system price so okay for me. Accountant what is lsp with new rules?

All about Kane for me in the big game tonight. Backing him for an assist has been profitable and there still seems to be mismatch between his goalscorer price and his assist price to me. Accoring to Whoscored he has 9 goals and 10 assists in his 12 Premier League appearances. My bets, in ascending order of muggishness, are as follows.
To assist a goal at 5/1 with Lads (boosted from 19/4, I'd have taken 9/2 with Sky Bet or even 4/1 PP)
To score a goal at 2/1 with Fred (limited stake for this "Wednesday Football Special" boost but just about worth taking)
To assist 2 or more goals at 50/1 Sky Bet
To assist a goal and have a shot on target in each half at 17/1 PP
To assist a goal and have 3 or more shots on target at 25/1 PP
To assist Son and Son to assist Kane at 66/1 Betway (or 50s Sky Bet)
He may have an off night but the assist bet is worth a "proper" bet for me, the scorer odds are ok and the others are not the worst "interest" bets to stick a small amount on.

Hi guys. I’m new to the forum . The game I wanna focus is Liverpool vs Tottenham. The injury list at Liverpool is long , but that’s an opportunity for the next man to step up . They have been inconsistent lately , playing good at home and kind of sloppy on the road. But today’s game is at Anfield and the last team that visited Anfield , the Wolves lost 4-0. Today’s opponent the Spurs are hard team to play against and I’m sure that Mourinho will set up his team very defensively , trying to hit Liverpool on counter attack with his two best players Kane and Son . They have been terrific so far this season. Joy to watch them really, the way they can pick a team apart with just 2-3 touches of the ball. Klopp will be prepared for this type of game I think. Whether his players can stick with the game plan is a different question. Mane and Firmino haven’t been prolific lately, but today is the perfect day to find some form, and if that happens I can see Liverpool winning . It’s gonna be hard to unlock that defense that Mourinho gonna set , but Liverpool have been there before. My pick- home win

Liverpool vs Tottenham
The biggest Premier League game of the season so far is coming our way at 8pm GMT on Wednesday night when reigning champions Liverpool face league leaders Tottenham at Anfield. Both teams dropped points unexpectedly on the weekend but could this match give us an idea of which of these two teams is better prepared to make a push for the league title this season?
Liverpool looked way off the pace against Fulham last weekend and it could be argued they were even lucky to come away with a draw. It was a second disappointing draw in a matter of days for Jurgen Klopp's side after they were held to a 1-1 draw against Danish minnows FC Midtjylland in the final group game of their Champions League campaign. The Reds are in 2nd place with 25 points and are only held off the top spot by their opponents for this game due to an inferior goal difference. The fact Liverpool have already dropped just 4 fewer points in the league already this season compared to last season shows why some are questioning this team's title credentials. Still, Liverpool have won all 6 of their home league games so far this season. It's also 10 straight home league wins against the "established top six" before this game. Not to mention, their record-breaking run of 65 home league matches in a row without defeat that stretches back to April 2017.
Tottenham appear to be the real deal under Jose Mourinho this season. Not competing in the Champions League this season could prove to be a blessing in disguise with the team using the Europa League to keep fringe players match fit. It's 11 league games unbeaten for Spurs since their opening weekend loss to Everton. That run includes being unbeaten on their travels with 4 wins and 2 draws. The team has also conceded just 10 goals in their 12 league matches so far. Interestingly, Mourinho comes up against a manager in Klopp whom he has never managed to beat as the away team in five attempts. Also, forget the SAS of Alan Shearer and Chris Sutton, who hold the record of 13 for most combined goals between any two players that was set during the 1994/95 season. Tottenham have Harry Kane and Son Heung-min who are already just 1 short of that record.
This is a huge game. There's no hiding from it. We have the league's most potent attacking force taking on the division's most robust defensive unit. Can either of these teams find a breakthrough? It has become sensible to back Liverpool to win at home over recent seasons but this match against Tottenham is undoubtedly one of their toughest in recent memory. I can see these two cancelling each other out with a 0-0 or 1-1 draw.
Draw @ 4.00 with SpreadEx
Total Goals Scored Under 2.5 @ 2.38 with SBK

To be fair, I wouldn't have called him getting a red in a million years so just one of those gut-wrenching hits you have to take I think.

Unfortunately didn’t back Garcia with a firm who gives you money back if the player is sent off! 

Better late than never. Couple of goalscorers that appeal for an interest.
Valverde at 7/1 with 888 and Raul Garcia at 6.6 on BF.

Check out the latest odds and ratings for the Spanish La Liga matches this week. A lot to think about with matches in the middle of the week next week too. Tell us your bets down below! 

Hi mate, good to see your posts with some reasoned selections but you might want to take a look at this post from @StevieDay1983 regarding the use of external links. 

Wasn’t sure whether to post this in the Darts Forum or the Systems and Strategy Forum … but as most of my selections will be based on my own player ratings, I plumped for this area of the forum.
I’m a keen follower of the darts, but I’m guilty of having too many stupid bets and accas; by recording all my bets on here I will hopefully reduce the number of bets I have, and only post the one’s where I see the greatest value. My ratings are based on current form, and I’ll be seeking out the best odds for each selection I put up.
I’ll be looking to cover all the PDC tournaments throughout the year (both televised and non-televised) with a starting bank of 1000 points.
My tournament outright picks with be between 0.5pts and 3pts, and singles will be 5pts or 10pts depending on how strongly I fancy the selection. I’ll also chuck in the odd 1pt acca in the early rounds of the big tournaments.
 
The Darts World Championship gets underway on Tuesday evening, and I’m putting up a couple of outright selections to get started.
Damon Heta to win Quarter Two
1 pt @ 11.00 (Various)
There are question marks about a few of Heta’s rivals in this section of the draw. Gary Anderson is suffering from a leg injury and Glen Durrant is recovering after a bout of Covid-19. Rob Cross has been out of form for much of this year, and whilst Devon Petersen has been brilliant for much of the year, his results in the last couple of weeks of the season haven’t been great. Michael Smith is a big danger, but Heta has finished the season in great form. He picked up a ProTour title during the Winter Series, and has kept his arm in by picking up the Home Tour III title a few days ago. Enthusiasm is slightly tempered by a pretty tough looking draw – Danny Baggish in the first round and then Adrian Lewis in the second isn’t ideal – so I’ll just stick to a 1 point bet here.
 
Jose De Sousa most tournament 180s
1pt @ 13.00 (Bet365 / Betfred)
Most bookies have Van Gerwen as the favourite to win this market which doesn’t feel right, he’s by no means one of the highest 180 hitters on tour, so for me he has to be opposed. I might be letting my heart rule my head a little with this one, De Sousa is rapidly becoming one of my favourite players on tour, and he’s won me a fair few quid over the last season. ‘The Special One’ still may be a little underestimated by the bookies, he has been in fine form recently, and has been consistently hitting 180’s for some time, not least when he won the Grand Slam title a few weeks ago. To win this market we need someone who is going to reach at least the semi-finals, and although De Sousa finds himself in the same quarter as Gerwyn Price and Nathan Aspinall, he looks sure to go well in the biggest event of the year. He’s a best price 5/1 to reach the last four, so I think 12/1 on hitting the most 180s in the tournament looks like a good play.
 
Damon Heta most tournament 180s
0.5pts @ 67.00 (various)
Based on the fact I think Heta will go well, this price looks too good to miss. If Heta does win his quarter he’ll have played an extra match compared to most of his rivals in this market, due to not being in the World’s top 32. He’s a pretty big 180 hitter, so a small interest for me.

Leeds v West Ham
Christmas is indeed coming, as I was reminded by the pile of cards in my letter box yesterday. If I can get 3 or 4 in one day, how many might Leeds attract tonight!
Leeds >1.5 cards at 13/10 and >2.5 cards at 24/5, both with 888 (5/4 and 19/4 without boosts).
Ref Michael Oliver a fairly average ref, spreads have this game in for 33-36 points with Leeds in for 15-16 of them.
A simplistic take on Leeds in the Premier League this season is that they're "good for a couple of cards at least" with 7 of their 11 games seeing them get 2 or 3 cards. As they started fairly tamely in terms of cards, it's actually 7 of their last 8 games. To be fair, they've got 2 cards on 6 occasions and only got 3 once, but I think at the odds it's worth taking both >1.5 and >2.5. A Friday night televised game that they'll see as winnable; surely they're good for a couple of cards at least! 

Leeds vs West Ham
Yes, Christmas is coming and you can feel the hectic festive schedule already starting to take hold. There is plenty of football to play before then though and the Premier League action kicks off this weekend at 8pm GMT when Leeds host West Ham at Elland Road. Both teams will be looking to get back to winning ways after suffering defeats in last weekend's matches.
Leeds are struggling to build a run of results together at the moment with the club in 14th place. Marcelo Bielsa has seen his side take just 1 win from their last 5 league matches. Just 4 goals scored in those 5 games shows how a lack of potency up front is holding them back. To add to those woes, the club is suffering a centre back crisis with the duo of Robert Koch and Diego Llorente both ruled out leaving Luke Ayling as a likely candidate to step into the central role for the time being. If that wasn't enough negativity for the Whites fans then the fact they've only won 1 of their 5 home league matches so far this season shows they're not the most dangerous side on their own patch. An example of this poor home form is striker Patrick Bamford only scoring 1 of his 8 goals this season at home.
West Ham find themselves in a slightly more positive position than their opponents in 8th place and just 4 points off the pace of the Champions League spots. David Moyes is certainly exceeding expectations and he'll be gravely disappointed that his team couldn't keep the 1-0 lead they had against Manchester United last weekend before eventually losing 3-1. The Hammers had won three league games on the trot before that defeat. Michail Antonio is expected to remain sidelined meaning Sebastien Haller will likely continue to deputise. Away form appears to be where West Ham are getting their most points having only lost 2 of their last 8 games on the road stretching back from last season.
There is optimistic reading for Leeds fans in the head-to-head with the Yorkshire club having gone unbeaten in the last 9 meetings. It is also West Ham's 50th league visit to Elland Road and they've only prevailed victorious on 6 occasions. I feel this could be a time when they come away with another rare win or at least a draw. The defensive issues are a concern for Leeds and if West Ham score first, as they have done in their last 6 league matches, then it could be a tall order for the hosts to recover.
West Ham Draw No Bet @ 2.33 with Unibet
Total Goals Scored Over 2.5 @ 1.63 with SBK

Leeds v West Ham
Early weekend games tend to lead to odd results. I think most players would prefer a 3pm Saturday kickoff. It's what they know, routine wise. So an 8pm Friday night game is a tricky game for everyone. You are just out of your routine, and the pressure is on. Everyone who wants to watch football is probably watching this game.

After a semi decent start are Leeds running out of gas? All fine and well to play at 100 miles an hour in the Championship, but is this style of play sustainable in the Premier League? Opponents are better, players physically fitter, strong and technically superior. So you can't just beat them with legs and work effort. Eventually you deplete your own fitness, working at these higher levels. 

West Ham played very well against Man United. More clinical in front of goal and they are 3-0 up. Fernandes or not, that is game over. They will be stinging after that game, which they should have won. The chances they missed were unreal

I feel that Leeds, with a smaller squad, and a higher fitness demand style of play may just find the games coming too thick and fast. Expect a tight first 60 and then West Ham to win it in the last 3rd.
If I was going 3 bets here they would be ;
 
highest scoring half second
Draw HT West to win FT
West Ham win.

I think one thing you have to think about is - Why are you betting ?
I can't really speak for people who are in it to make money ..... that's never been my focus
My enjoyment has always been in solving the puzzle. Assessing form, factors, coming  to a conclusion and hopefully being proved right. What I've found is that I get just as much satisfaction from being proved right whether I have 2 quid or 20 quid on. In fact with the various racing competitions on PL I rarely bet on horses at all ....... I get the same buzz from posting a winner with no money on it
I got it right, it feels good, have a little skip around the room !
I do bet on football, very small stakes...... but I suspect if we had an equivalent Nap of the Day on football I might even give that up and just get my buzz from the competition
So .......... I only bet with very small stakes and don't worry about losing
So this would be my advice ........ if you're not in it to make money just play with small stakes and get your enjoyment from 'solving the puzzle'
 
 
 

Not a bad set up for yet another bet on Salzburg's corner gaining prowess. Red Bull may or may not give you wings but they certainly seem to make use of them! >5.5 corners at 23/20 and >6.5 at 9/4, both with 888 (I have the benefit of a few 5% boosts every day but ok at the "natural" prices).

Not a bad set up for yet another bet on Salzburg's corner gaining prowess. Red Bull may or may not give you wings but they certainly seem to make use of them! >5.5 corners at 23/20 and >6.5 at 9/4, both with 888 (I have the benefit of a few 5% boosts every day but ok at the "natural" prices).

?? After reflection I decided to take a break until 2021.
I would come back at the beginning of January to get back into the bets properly. 
The rest of the Betting will do me good and I will be able to think about the next step more serenely. 
See you soon ??