DoublesForDough's Darting Diary

[DoublesForDough]

Wasn’t sure whether to post this in the Darts Forum or the Systems and Strategy Forum … but as most of my selections will be based on my own player ratings, I plumped for this area of the forum.

I’m a keen follower of the darts, but I’m guilty of having too many stupid bets and accas; by recording all my bets on here I will hopefully reduce the number of bets I have, and only post the one’s where I see the greatest value. My ratings are based on current form, and I’ll be seeking out the best odds for each selection I put up.

I’ll be looking to cover all the PDC tournaments throughout the year (both televised and non-televised) with a starting bank of 1000 points.

My tournament outright picks with be between 0.5pts and 3pts, and singles will be 5pts or 10pts depending on how strongly I fancy the selection. I’ll also chuck in the odd 1pt acca in the early rounds of the big tournaments.

 

The Darts World Championship gets underway on Tuesday evening, and I’m putting up a couple of outright selections to get started.

Damon Heta to win Quarter Two

1 pt @ 11.00 (Various)

There are question marks about a few of Heta’s rivals in this section of the draw. Gary Anderson is suffering from a leg injury and Glen Durrant is recovering after a bout of Covid-19. Rob Cross has been out of form for much of this year, and whilst Devon Petersen has been brilliant for much of the year, his results in the last couple of weeks of the season haven’t been great. Michael Smith is a big danger, but Heta has finished the season in great form. He picked up a ProTour title during the Winter Series, and has kept his arm in by picking up the Home Tour III title a few days ago. Enthusiasm is slightly tempered by a pretty tough looking draw – Danny Baggish in the first round and then Adrian Lewis in the second isn’t ideal – so I’ll just stick to a 1 point bet here.

 

Jose De Sousa most tournament 180s

1pt @ 13.00 (Bet365 / Betfred)

Most bookies have Van Gerwen as the favourite to win this market which doesn’t feel right, he’s by no means one of the highest 180 hitters on tour, so for me he has to be opposed. I might be letting my heart rule my head a little with this one, De Sousa is rapidly becoming one of my favourite players on tour, and he’s won me a fair few quid over the last season. ‘The Special One’ still may be a little underestimated by the bookies, he has been in fine form recently, and has been consistently hitting 180’s for some time, not least when he won the Grand Slam title a few weeks ago. To win this market we need someone who is going to reach at least the semi-finals, and although De Sousa finds himself in the same quarter as Gerwyn Price and Nathan Aspinall, he looks sure to go well in the biggest event of the year. He’s a best price 5/1 to reach the last four, so I think 12/1 on hitting the most 180s in the tournament looks like a good play.

 

Damon Heta most tournament 180s

0.5pts @ 67.00 (various)

Based on the fact I think Heta will go well, this price looks too good to miss. If Heta does win his quarter he’ll have played an extra match compared to most of his rivals in this market, due to not being in the World’s top 32. He’s a pretty big 180 hitter, so a small interest for me.

Edited December 13, 2020 by DoublesForDough

[DoublesForDough]

A couple of singles, one for Tuesday evening and one for Wednesday afternoon:

 

Steve West to beat Amit Gilitwala 3-0

10points @ 10/11 (Skybet)

There aren't many statistics out there on the Indian qualifier, but from what I have seen he could be the weakest player in the whole tournament. There was some odds against the whitewash when the draw initially made, but the 10/11 being offered by Skybet still rates as a value bet.

 

Karel Sedlacek to beat Ryan Joyce

10points @ 15/8 (SpreadEx)

I have this game down as a much more even contest, Sedlacek has been playing well recently, including a win over Krzysztof Ratajski at the Players Championship Finals, and he beat Joyce in their only previous meeting in September. 

 

[twinny]

good luck with this ?

[DoublesForDough]

Thanks Twinny !!!

 

Boris Krcmar to beat Ron Meulenkamp

5points @ 1/1 (various)

Boris Krcmar is a player I've been keeping a close eye on towards the second half of this season; he's been throwing some big averages, not least when losing to Michael Smith at the Players Championship Finals with a 108 average. He's put in some good performances in the floor events this years as well, and I have him as favourite to get past Meulenkamp.

 

I've not picked out an outright winner on here yet, a few weeks ago I was keen on Peter Wright to defend his title, but there are reports that he's got a rib injury which may be affecting his throw. So I'm going to hold fire on putting that up until we see how he gets on in his first round match on the opening night.

 

Ryan Searle to win the Eighth 6 (basically to reach at least the Quarter-Finals)

2points @ 8/1 (PaddyPower)

One outright that I do like the look of is Ryan Searle to win his eighth of the draw. I've only seen this market available at PaddyPower, but 'Heavy Metal' is an 8/1 shot, which looks a bit big. His main rivals in this section of the draw are probably James Wade (who has struggled at Ally Pally in recent years) and Jeffrey de Zwaan (who hasn't had the greatest year) - I rate Searle as having a better chance than a few of the players ahead of him in this market.

[DoublesForDough]

Steve West duly obliged by losing just one leg against Gilitwala in a three sets to nil win. West then went on to lose 3-1 to Peter Wright in the final game of the night; Snakebite wasn't wholly convincing in victory, averaging 93 - he admitted afterwards that the rib injury was giving him problems. He's sure to improve on that performance, and he won't play again until after Christmas, so plenty of time to rest up.

 

Peter Wright to win the World Championships

2points @ 6/1 (William Hill)

Top of my ratings and already through to the last 32, odds of 6/1 seem reasonable.

 

Jeff Smith to beat Chris Dobey

5points @ 11/8 (SpreadEx)

In one of the other games on the opening night Jeff Smith saw off Keane Barry, and now goes on to face Chris Dobey on Wednesday. Dobey has struggled recently, and although his form on the Home Tour was much better, he's a player that I was looking to oppose. Smith will have to play better than he did against Barry, but the 11/8 on Smith looks like a bit of value.

[DoublesForDough]

Feeling a little bit aggrieved after todays results; Sedlacek missed no less than SIX match darts in a 3-2 defeat to Ryan Joyce, whilst Jeff Smith lost by the same scoreline despite taking a 2-0 lead.

William O'Connor to beat Daryl Gurney

5points @ 6/5 (various)

Gurney has been out of form recently and been sliding down my ratings. He did beat O'Connor (10-9) at the UK Open in their only meeting this season, but Gurney is in poorer form than when that match was played, so happy to take O'Connor at odds against.

 

[DoublesForDough]

Another poor day yesterday with two losers, just the one today:

Haupai Puha to beat Mickey Mansell

5points @ 7/4 (Bet365)

I make Mansell a slight favourite here, so the value is on the New Zealander at these odds. I’ve just checked Mansell’s record, and he hasn’t won a match on stage since May 2019, OK only six matches, but still can’t be good for his confidence. Last year at the World Champs he lost in the opening round to Seigo Asada 3-0 with an 80 average.

[DoublesForDough]

Puha was dreadful yesterday, never showed up at all. Nothing standing out with the ratings over the next couple of days, the next selection plays on Monday:

 

Ryan Joyce to beat Krzysztof Ratajski

10points @ 21/10 (various)

Joyce survived several match darts against Sedlacek in the first round but averaged a reasonable 92, and was very good on his doubles. Ratajski still saves his best for the floor tournaments, and hasn’t seemed in the greatest of form recently. The value lies with Joyce in this one.

[DoublesForDough]

Obviously not the start I wanted to this thread, but I'm hopeful that over the longer term this can prove profitable. Just the one match to finish off the second round:

 

Andy Boulton to beat Stephen Bunting

10points @ 11/10 (various)

I have Boulton as the favourite in this match-up, his form on the Home Tour has been excellent, and if he can bring that to the Ally Pally stage he should have a good chance against Bunting.

[DoublesForDough]

Been through all the third round matches and there's four I'm taking, all of these are selected as value bets based on my ratings:

 

Simon Whitlock to beat Krzysztof Ratajski

10 points @ 6/5 (SpreadEx)

 

Danny Baggish to beat Glen Durrant

5points @ 23/10 (various)

 

Jason Lowe to beat Devon Petersen

5points @ 11/5 (various)

 

Dave Chisnall (-2.5 sets) to beat Danny Noppert

10points @ 8/5 (Boylesports)

 

Also trying

1point acca on all the above pays 52.76/1 with Bet365