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PDC World Championships 2021


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It all gets start tomorrow. The best time of year for Darts. Absolutely love the Worlds. Such a good event and plenty of betting opportunities. We did well last year with the 16/1 winner (Peter Wright) and over 40pts profit. I suppose the tournament gets started on Wednesday (daytime darts) but we've got 3 matches tomorrow night including Jeff Smith, Steve Beaton and Steve West. Decent players.

Looking at the outrights first as usual, I'll be looking through the draw and probably taking a handful. I'm taking three "main bets" players that I can think can win the event. You could name about 20 that could get to a semi-final but will bottle it when it matters. I can't be bothered with those this year. They will go in the "winning quarter" markets.

2pts E/W J. De Sousa to win World Championships 18/1 betfair
1.5pts E/W  N.Aspinall to win World Championships 22/1 bet365
1.5pts E/W Van Den Bergh to win World Championships 22/1 betfair
0.5pts E/W D Van Duijvenbode to win World Championships 80/1 betfair
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1pt L. Humphries to win 1st Quarter 25/1 skybet
0.5pts J. Wattimena to win 1st Quarter 25/1 betfair
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1pt D. Van Duijvenbode to win 2nd Quarter 12/1 betfair
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1pt C.Rydz to win 3rd Quarter 40/1 bet365
0.5pts N.Kurz to win 3rd Quarter 100/1 bet365
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0.5pts R.Smith to win 4th Quarter 50/1 betvictor
----------------------------------------------------------------
0.5pts Name The Finalists? - Van Den Bergh Vs N.Aspinall 100/1 bet365
0.5pts Name The Finalists? - Van Den Bergh Vs P.Wright 45/1 boylesports

 

 

 

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about right. Every bet coming in until Smith walks up. Is there a mentally weaker player of any sport in the world? he's abit of a joke and he'll never EVER win the Worlds. Mark my words. +1.5pts for

Ratajski to beat Bunting at 1.5 with bet365 Anderson to beat Van Duijvenbode at 1.8 with bet365  Gurney to beat Price at 3.00 with bet365 MvG to beat Chisnall at 1.2 with bet365  

There wasn't much I liked in the first two matches. I fancied Anderson but I had an outright quarter bet with Van Duijvenbode, so I left it alone. Once it went 1-1 in sets, Van Duijvenbode gave up. Bi

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Tonight's matches :

S. West Vs A. Gilitwala
S. Beaton Vs D. Portela
J. Smith Vs K. Barry
P. Wright Vs (winner of S.West Vs A.Gilitwala)

The defending champion always plays on Day 1. Peter Wright will take on the winner of Steve West and Gilitwala. I think West wins his match 3-0. West is actually on abit of form at the moment, making the Last 32 of the UK Open and the Last 16 of the Belgium Darts Championship. He should have too much for the lowly ranked Indian. Jeff Smith against Barry could be a close match. Jeff Smith had a great start to the year but it's fell away abit since then. Barry is more of a work in progress I suppose but when we look at their standard averages it looks much more likely the experience of Jeff Smith will come through here

5pts J. Smith to beat K.Barry 4/5 bet365
7pts S. West to beat A. Gilitwala 3-0 4/7 paddypower

2pts treble - West 3-0 / Beaton 3-0 / J.Smith 8/1 skybet

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Peter Wright hit most 180s last year. Ofcourse, somebody that wins the event or gets to the final and also hits 180s is going to be high on the list on "Most 180s" looking at the market, there are a few that I like.

I like Luke Humphries in this event. I have him on the quarter outright and to be honest he is worth a tournament outright bet too purely for the odds. Last year he made the Quarter-finals of this event at his first attempt. He is in better form recently then last year and yet he hit 38 180s (4th highest) IF he makes the Quarter finals again (he has a chance) then he has every chance of being up there again for Most 180s.

Most Tournament 180s: 
1pt Van Den Bergh 16/1 bet365
1pt L.Humphries 100/1 bet365

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9 hours ago, Fader said:

Tonight's matches :

S. West Vs A. Gilitwala
S. Beaton Vs D. Portela
J. Smith Vs K. Barry
P. Wright Vs (winner of S.West Vs A.Gilitwala)

The defending champion always plays on Day 1. Peter Wright will take on the winner of Steve West and Gilitwala. I think West wins his match 3-0. West is actually on abit of form at the moment, making the Last 32 of the UK Open and the Last 16 of the Belgium Darts Championship. He should have too much for the lowly ranked Indian. Jeff Smith against Barry could be a close match. Jeff Smith had a great start to the year but it's fell away abit since then. Barry is more of a work in progress I suppose but when we look at their standard averages it looks much more likely the experience of Jeff Smith will come through here

5pts J. Smith to beat K.Barry 4/5 bet365
7pts S. West to beat A. Gilitwala 3-0 4/7 paddypower

2pts treble - West 3-0 / Beaton 3-0 / J.Smith 8/1 skybet

Smith wins and West wins 3-0. Beaton was utter dross. I was contemplating betting on him to get the most 180s Vs 3-0 and both would have lost. Nevertheless, a decent start really. +6pts

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All four win for +10pts. Dobey looked awesome once he went 2-0 down.

Ashton has a chance tonight against Adam Hunt, however, I don't like it enough to have a bet on her. Just the one outsider bet for me with paddypower

1.5pts Rydz and Hunt to win, most 180s and highest checkout in their matches 7/1 

Worlds +16pts

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Another full day of Darts today. Here is the afternoon session.

M. Razma Vs T. Suzuki
M. De Decker Vs E. Foulkes
R. Murray Vs L. Ilagan

D. Gurney Vs W. O'Connor

I'm taking just the one for the afternoon matches and a four-fold once again. The single bet I like is Ryan Murray to beat Ilagan. We've seen Ilagan many times at the Worlds and he's always had an impact with the crowds, who seem to love him here. With no crowds though and the lack of practise, with Covid, I can see Murray taking this one. Murray is a good up and coming player and aslong as his doubling stands up then his scoring should do him well here.

5pts R. Murray to beat L. Ilagan 4/5 betfair
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2pts 4-fold - Razma / De Decker / Murray / Gurney 5/1 paddypower
1pt double - Razma & De Decker to both win 3-0 7/1 paddypower
1pt double - De Decker & Murray to both win / most 180s / highest checkout 12/1 paddypower

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Murray wins but De Decker lets us down with a pathetic performance. Could have ben so much better. Level afternoon. Evening matches :

L. Woodhouse Vs J. Lewis
R. Meulenkamp Vs B. Krcmar
R. Searle Vs D. Lauby
J. De Sousa Vs R. Smith

couple for tonight. I think Woodhouse and Searle will win tonight. The Meulenkamp Vs Krcmar match is a real 50/50 but I'd favour Boris. De Sousa Vs Smith should really be the match of the night. Match of the tournament so far infact. I can see plenty of 180s in that match and a potential upset.

4pts L. Woodhouse (-1.5 sets) to beat J. Lewis 15/8 betway
4pts R. Searle to beat D. Lauby 3-0 11/8 betway
1pt accy - Woodhouse -1.5 sets / Searle 3-0 / Krcmar / Over 10.5 180s (De Sousa Vs R.Smith) 16.5/1 paddypower (money back if one loses)

 

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rubbish day yesterday. Woodhouse 2-0 up in sets, threw it away. Lauby was actually pretty good. -9pts

today's afternoon matches :

M. Mansell Vs H. Puha
D. Labanuskas Vs C. Liu
W. Jones Vs C. Teehan
J. Jones Vs A. Hunt

The one that looks a spot of value is Teehan to beat Wayne Jones. Micky Mansell Vs Puha could also be a close one. Mansell is actually a decent player but his record here is absolutely shocking. 

2.5pts C. Teehan to beat W. Jones 6/5 bet365
2pts H Puha to beat M. Mansell 7/4 bet365
1pt accy - Puha / Teehan / Jones / Labanauskas -1.5 sets 10/1 paddypower

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I have had three times now where I've fancied a player, did some research on stats etc and changed my mind. Only for the original player to win. Gut feeling, alot of the time, seems to work for me. Another poor session there. Hoping for something better tonight as the quality is most definitely a big step-up for the majority of these four matches :

D. Van Duijvenbode Vs B. Brooks
J. Henderson Vs M. Kantele
L. Humphries Vs P. Lim

J. Wade Vs C. Rydz

I'm looking forward to seeing Van Duijvenbode, Humphries and Rydz again tonight. We'll get nothing good, odds wise, for Van Duijvenbode. In the Hendo Vs Kantele match though, Henderson will have a match on his hands, I feel. He really should have too much consistency for Kantele though. He would be the worry in a four fold consisting of Van Duijvenbode, Henderson, Humphries and Wade. However, Rydz is a class player and could easily turn up tonight and beat Wade.

2.5pts J.Henderson to beat M.Kantele and score the most 180s 6/5 paddypower
4pts L. Humphries to beat P.Lim, Most 180s and Highest Checkout 6/4 paddypower

------------------------------------------------
2pts Wade, Humphries & Henderson 5/2 paddypower

1.5pts Van Duijvenbode, Henderson, Humphries & Wade all to hit the most 180s in their matches 9/1 skybet
0.5pts saver accy - Van Duijvenbode -1.5 sets / Rydz to win and most 180s / Humphries and most 180s / Kantele 22/1 paddypower

 

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Not sure how I've ended up betting on darts but have taken a few best prices for tonight's session.

A 9 dart finish at 25/1 Hills (17/1 next best I've seen)

A 170 checkout at 19/4 with Lads (boosted from 9/2, 7/2 next best)

12+ ton finishes 12/1 with PP or Betway

No idea if they look good, bad or indifferent to an aficionado but fancied an interest.

Some (probably better than mine) bets on the tournament being posted here as well, which may be of interest.

 

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1 hour ago, Fader said:

I have had three times now where I've fancied a player, did some research on stats etc and changed my mind. Only for the original player to win. Gut feeling, alot of the time, seems to work for me.

Could that be recency bias at play @Fader - in the long run maybe research and stats is more profitable than your gut. Hard to tell without records to refer to, but it's certainly an interesting topic.

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That doubling from Humphries. My god, so bad. 10 out of 42 doubles hit. In one leg he must have missed about 12 darts for double. Such a shame because he hit 6 180s and the most 180s in the tournament at 100/1 looked a terrific bet. Henderson wins with most 180s but a poor night because of that doubling.

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17 minutes ago, Fader said:

That doubling from Humphries. My god, so bad. 10 out of 42 doubles hit. In one leg he must have missed about 12 darts for double. Such a shame because he hit 6 180s and the most 180s in the tournament at 100/1 looked a terrific bet. Henderson wins with most 180s but a poor night because of that doubling.

He did miss 12 darts at a double towards the end of the match, which gave Lim the chance to throw for it. Impossible to beat anyone missing that many doubles. He was cruising at 2-0, then got broken right at the start of the third set which was the start of the Lim comeback. After that, any time Humphries broke he was immediately broken back. Missed a match dart too. Difficult not to call that a bottle job.

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1 minute ago, Torque said:

He did miss 12 darts at a double towards the end of the match, which gave Lim the chance to throw for it. Impossible to beat anyone missing that many doubles. He was cruising at 2-0, then got broken right at the start of the third set which was the start of the Lim comeback. After that, any time Humphries broke he was immediately broken back. Missed a match dart too. Difficult not to call that a bottle job.

I never thought he would bottle it to that degree. I thought he was made of stronger stuff. Lost out on over 20pts on that cave. The 9/1 accy was coming in. Sigh!

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1 minute ago, Fader said:

I never thought he would bottle it to that degree. I thought he was made of stronger stuff. Lost out on over 20pts on that cave. The 9/1 accy was coming in. Sigh!

Never mind the 9 to 1 accy, all you needed to do was back Lim when he was 2-0 down at 100 to 1 - then again who in their right brain would do that. Pie in the sky stuff :lol

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3 hours ago, Torque said:

Could that be recency bias at play @Fader - in the long run maybe research and stats is more profitable than your gut. Hard to tell without records to refer to, but it's certainly an interesting topic.

Yeah, it could be I suppose. Maybe it's something I can look at next year and see if it's just in my head :D 

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46 minutes ago, inavacuum said:

This may be a controversial opinion, and it may not be the case later in the tournament, when we get to the ‘big’ matches and latter stages, but I think that darts is far better without a crowd. 

I’m finding it much more enjoyable watching the matches, without constant cut-aways to people in unoriginal fancy dress, or holding up unfunny hand-written signs, or listening to them singing about how they love the darts, or singing a song about Kolo and Yaya Toure. 

I love being part of a football crowd, where you are singing and chanting with the purpose of supporting your team on the pitch. However, I don’t understand the darts crowd at all, standing singing about how much they love darts, or singing the song about the Toure brothers, I can’t see the appeal at all. It all seems a bit pointless to me?! 

I think you get different types of fans with Darts. Some just use it as another means to gamble and they also tend to be the "football type fans" who will be out there getting p*ssed up and let's face it, not watching the actual darts. Then you get the people that actually enjoy watching the darts and would rather it be like this. Id be happy either way to be honest but there has been much more competitions recently and I'm enjoying that.

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King, Waites and Lennon all win for the 16/5 treble coming in. I didn't have a chance to watch any darts this afternoon but the Waites match sounded brilliant.

Evening session :
A.Hamilton Vs N.Kurz
A.Boulton Vs D.Hedman
D.Heta Vs D.Baggish
MVG Vs R.Murray

I like Nico Kurz as a player. Much like the Callan Rydz mold he scores well and is an exciting player to watch. The Hammer has been here and got to a major final here but he isn't the player he used to be and I would fancy Nico in that first match. Boulton would be my choice in the second match. He has been ripping it up in the home game setup recently. Heta would have to be a big favourite against the underrated Baggish and ofcourse MVG should see things through without too much hassle against the inexperienced Murray.

I already have a couple of trebles and such open above but I'll also take the following :

2pts N.Kurz to win the match, most 180s and highest checkout 13/2 paddypower
2pts A.Boulton to win the have the highest checkout, FIRST 180 and LAST 180 9/4 paddypower
---------------------------------------------------------------
2pts MVG, Heta and Boulton to win 3-0 11/2 skybet
1pt MVG, Heta both to win 3-0 and checkout 100+ 10/1 skybet
0.5pts Kurz, Boulton and MVG all to win, hit most 180s and highest checkout 40/1 paddypower

 

PDC World Champs bets +30pts
Darts 2020 +152pts

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Hi Fader.

What do you make of Matthew Edgar’s chances today? He certainly talks his own abilities up a lot on his YouTube channel, but I don’t think that he’s nearly as good a player as he thinks he is!

The bookies have it as a 50/50 match. I’d quite like to oppose Edgar, but I don’t know much about his opponent. Any thoughts as to how that match will go?

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1 hour ago, Trucker12 said:

Hi Fader.

What do you make of Matthew Edgar’s chances today? He certainly talks his own abilities up a lot on his YouTube channel, but I don’t think that he’s nearly as good a player as he thinks he is!

The bookies have it as a 50/50 match. I’d quite like to oppose Edgar, but I don’t know much about his opponent. Any thoughts as to how that match will go?

I think Kuivenhoven is a good player and if you can get evens on him I would take it. Like you say, Edgar talks a good game is madly inconsistent.

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I’ve over slept again and missed out on the early match. I’ll take the following with the main player I think will win today being Vincent. I can see him winning 3-0

2pts Van Der Voort, Lowe and Kuivenhoven to all win 3/1 paddypower 

5pts Van Der Voort (-1.5) sets to beat Meulenkamp 11/10 paddypower 

2pts Van Der Voort to win, most 180s and highest checkout 4/1 paddypower 

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Ugh, that's annoying. I expected much better from VVDV and less from Meulenkamp. 

K.Brown Vs R.Meikle
J.De Zwaan Vs R.Searle
J.Clayton Vs J.Henderson

I like Searle and Clayton tonight. I don't know too much about Carolissen and the Brown Vs Miekle match will depend on which Miekle turns up. The one hitting 100 averages now and again at the home tour or his normal 80-85 average. It's probably worth taking Meikle with Keegan Brown so busy with his "other job", away from the Darts. I'll take Clayton on the handicap. I've been looking to oppose Hendo with somebody who can do the business and Clayton is most certainly that player.

*update - Kleermaker withdrawn *

3pts R.Meikle to beat K.Brown evens bet365
6pts J.Clayton (-1.5 sets) to beat J.Henderson 5/6 bet365
3pts R.Searle to win and both players to throw 4 180s 3/1 paddypower
--------------------------------------------------------------
1pt accy - Meikle to win and most 180s / Searle to win and most 180s / Clayton -1.5 sets 17/1 paddypower

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Just the one session today and it kicks off at 6.15pm. Here's today's matches :

K. Ratajski Vs R. Joyce
I. White Vs K. Huybrechts
G. Price Vs J. Lewis
G. Clemens Vs N. Kurz

It will be interesting to see if Kim Huybrechts keeps up the standard he showed in his first round match (104 average) He will face Ian White. White has beaten him twice already in 2020 and won the last 3. It really depends on Kim. He has the ability but he is another one that goes very "hot and cold" and rarely sticks two performances in a row together. The Ratajski Vs Joyce match could also go close. Ratajski isn't in the best of form and Joyce is somehow still here despite multiple match darts against him. Their  last head-to-head went to a deciding leg and it could once again be a tight one. I'd favour Ratajski and White to come through though.

I expect Price to beat Lewis. Lewis would need to play like his did in the latter stages of his previous match and to be consistent with it. I'm not sure that solid scoring will be able to stand up to Price coming back at him. Price beat Lewis 6-3 in their last head-to-head and has won the last 3.  In the final match, much will depend on Clemens. He can rapid score and beat anybody but his form after the World Cup has dipped alittle and although I think he can get through against Nico, Nico has the ability there, for sure.

2pts Price, White and Clemens to win 5/2 paddypower
2.5pts Price & Clemens to both win and hit the most 180s 13/5 paddypower


PDC World Champs bets +19pts
Darts 2020 +141pts

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Another full day of Darts today. Here is the afternoon matches :

B. Dolan Vs E. Foulkes
J. Cullen Vs W. Jones
S. Whitlock Vs D. Labanauskas
A. Lewis Vs D. Baggish

I think Dolan comes through today, He's actually had a pretty good year and I think much like Cullen in the second match, he should outscore his opponent. That is the theme for 3 of these 4 matches. Perhaps all 4. One should outscore the other.

The one that I give a chance to though, is Labanauskas. He is a real strong finisher and if Whitlock has one big weakness, it's his finishing. He can hit 110 averages but he can also take 12 darts to hit D1. 

2.5pts B. Dolan (Most 180s and win the match) 7/5 paddypower
2pts S. Whitlock to get the most 180s but LOSE the match 3/1 paddypower
2pts Dolan, J. Cullen and A. Lewis to win and hit the most 180s 6.5/1 paddypower
2pts S. Whitlock and A. Lewis to win, most 180s and highest checkout 15/2 paddypower
0.5pts Dolan 3-0 / Cullen 3-0 / Lewis 3-2 40/1 paddypower


PDC World Champs bets +23.5pts
Darts 2020 +145.5pts

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