Trotter
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Posts posted by Trotter
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4 hours ago, Trotter said:
Sou 3.35
Decent sized field for this one - nine runners so EW possibilities
top rated
Requinto Dawn 10
Zylan 9
Equidae 6
Katheefa 6value
horses available at bigger odds (bet365) than my estimates ...
Requinto Dawn 8/1 (my odds 4/1)
Shacka booha 20/1 (my odds 16/1)
Bellevarde 20/1 (my odds 19/2)
I suppose Requinto Dawn is the obvious Win selection
Requinto Dawn - WON 9/1
- BBBC, Villa Chris and DanV89
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One thing I have noticed doing this for the last few days is that it helps to put a framework on the race even if you don't pick what appears to be the 'value' bet
I've had 3 consecutive winners in the Nap of the Day comp but I don't think any of them would have counted ........ but merely by going through this process it helped me pick the winner
Like today I had Notation in the 2.35 at Southwell ....... wasn't one of the value horses but in looking at the race for this thread I concluded that none of the 'value' horses were going to win and Notation was my top rated and the most likely winner.
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Sou 3.35
Decent sized field for this one - nine runners so EW possibilities
top rated
Requinto Dawn 10
Zylan 9
Equidae 6
Katheefa 6value
horses available at bigger odds (bet365) than my estimates ...
Requinto Dawn 8/1 (my odds 4/1)
Shacka booha 20/1 (my odds 16/1)
Bellevarde 20/1 (my odds 19/2)
I suppose Requinto Dawn is the obvious Win selection
Bellevarde EW
The one I fancy is Katheefa but the bookies have the odds about the same as my estimate (bet365 7/1, my odds 15/2) so I guess it doesn't count as 'value'
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Sou 2.35
Another small field - only 5 runners ...... possible EW race with 2 places. That's 2/5 places for EW which is 40% which is the biggest number for any size of field and theoretically makes EW betting in 5 runner races advantageous to the punter, particularly with quarter odds (though obviously a non runner would scupper your bet)
top rated
Notation 9
Mukha Magic 5value
the horses available at bigger odds (bet 365) than my estimates are
Arabian King 13/2 ( my odds 5/1)
Chipiron 7/1 (my odds 4/1)There's nothing outstanding here
Take a punt on Chipiron EW 7/1 ....... only 2 places but quarter odds
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Sou 2.05
My EW selection (Headland) is a non runner ..... although with only 7 declared it didn't look like a good EW race
Of course that affects the total number of points so I've had to re-do the odds !
Top rated (now 6 runners, 2 places EW)
1 Amadeus Grey 11
2 Thrave 7
3 My Boy Lewis 6Value
As it turns out the three top rated are the only three available at bigger odds than my estimates
Amadeus Grey is 9/4 (my odds 13/8)
Thrave is 11/2 (my odds 16/5)
My Boy Lewis is 13/2 ( my odds 4/1)Bet365 prices
any of them look decent value according to me ..... whichever one you fancy
the reason for this is that the current 2nd and 3rd favourites (in a 6 runner race) are massive prices on my list which is distorting the market compared to my ratings
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deleted .... premature clicking when I hadn't finished typing
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2.35 Sou - Notation - win at 6/5 wm hill
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just to add ........ if you look at the race and there's a potential Frankel who doesn't earn any points because he's only run once but is 10/1 on and from the O'Brien yard ..... well, just move on to the next race and give that one a miss!
or concentrate on EW shots
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8 hours ago, Wildgarden said:
Maybe we could add so many points to a favourite or 2nd favourite without form due to fact they are backed.. say 40% like form would get. I am going to trial this as it clearly affected few of mine on 2 races. Or no form could add points on according to horses odds percentage probably better.
I'm not really keen on including 'market position' or forecast odds or actual odds in any rating system .... or in any of the trends type approach
I reckon the point of doing any sort of ratings or trends analysis is to discover which horse you think 'should' be favourite and hopefully it will be one that the market has missed and then you can get some value
If you're skewing your ratings towards the favourite by giving him extra points it seems to defeat the object
- Wildgarden and Pirate53
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2 hours ago, Trotter said:
1.25 Ling
in current market order at bet365
3/1 Fav Intuitive - I make a 20/1 shot - poor
10/3 Corazon Esp - I make 13/5 - about right
4/1 Fox - I make 12/1 - poor
6/1 Papa - I make 12/1 - poor
15/2 Crownth - I make 4/1 - looks OK
9/1 - Lord - I make 9/1 - about right
10/1 Moha - I make 20/1 - poor
20/1 Miss - I make 9/2 ! - EW ?So I make the outsider the best for 'value' and possible EW shot though there are just the 8 runners so could be scuppered by a NR
Of the more fancied ones Crownthorpe the value for a Win bet
This race does point up a problem though in that two of the market leaders (Intuitive and Fox Power) are lightly raced types who haven't earned many points yet but have potential to be ahead of the handicapper. Obviously awarding points for what they have done up to now doesn't take account of this....... whereas if you were doing good old fashioned form study you would include an assessment of what the horse might be capable of as well as what it's already achieved. That's a problem with any points based system
On the other hand you might think it's an advantage only to rate a horse on what it's already done and take hype, trainer & jockey quotes, pundits opinions, big yard and big connections bias out of the equation.
edited .... got a mixed up with the odds on the two outsiders !
Mission Boy finished 2nd at SP 18/1
Intuitive illustrates the point i was making .... didn't feature on my ratings because it hasn't done anything yet. However it was overnight favourite, was clearly expected to be an improving horse and won doing handstands
If these same 8 runners faced each other in a similar race at Ling next week Intuitive would probably be at the top of my ratings because now he'll have a last time out win and a CD win, ........... so the ratings only take into account what the horse has done up to now whereas a successful punter will always try to assess what the horse is capable of in the future, ie today's race
Don't forget that when doing 'value' it's not the same as trying to pick winners ...... if you're just picking winners then you'd pick your top rated for every race. If you don't think your top rated is going to win then you have no confidence in your own ratings and there's not much point doing them!
- Wildgarden and MCLARKE
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MR 3.10 - Eileendover - win at 6/4 bet365
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1.25 Ling
in current market order at bet365
3/1 Fav Intuitive - I make a 20/1 shot - poor
10/3 Corazon Esp - I make 13/5 - about right
4/1 Fox - I make 12/1 - poor
6/1 Papa - I make 12/1 - poor
15/2 Crownth - I make 4/1 - looks OK
9/1 - Lord - I make 9/1 - about right
10/1 Moha - I make 20/1 - poor
20/1 Miss - I make 9/2 ! - EW ?So I make the outsider the best for 'value' and possible EW shot though there are just the 8 runners so could be scuppered by a NR
Of the more fancied ones Crownthorpe the value for a Win bet
This race does point up a problem though in that two of the market leaders (Intuitive and Fox Power) are lightly raced types who haven't earned many points yet but have potential to be ahead of the handicapper. Obviously awarding points for what they have done up to now doesn't take account of this....... whereas if you were doing good old fashioned form study you would include an assessment of what the horse might be capable of as well as what it's already achieved. That's a problem with any points based system
On the other hand you might think it's an advantage only to rate a horse on what it's already done and take hype, trainer & jockey quotes, pundits opinions, big yard and big connections bias out of the equation.
edited .... got a mixed up with the odds on the two outsiders !
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Sou 5.00 - Star of St James - win at 6/5 bet365
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As richard said earlier in the thread you should be mainly looking at the horses who are at the top end of your ratings
I mean, you might have a horse which you've assessed at 33/1 and you can get 66/1 ...... looks terrific 'value' but it's still a 33/1 in your estimation
So with that in mind and with a non runner being my choice in the race I did last night .... here's my odds for my top rated 3 in a couple of races at Chelmsford with current bet365 odds
7.00
14 points - Old News - my odds 16/5 - current odds 13/2 (Win)
8 points - Casaruan - my odds 13/2 - current odds 10/1 (EW)
7 points - Strawberry Jack - my odds 8/1 - current odds 8/18.00
13 points - No Nay Bella - my odds 13/5 - current odds 3/1 (Win)
11 points - Arij - my odds 10/3 - current odds 6/4
10 points - Numberoneson - my odds 18/5 - current odds 14/1 (EW if no NR)In the 7.00 the top two look decent value and Strawberry Jack is priced about right
In the 8.00 Arij looks poor value, No Nay Bella is about right and should be favourite, Numberoneson is an EW shot but could be scuppered by a non runner (dead 8 in)
- Wildgarden, BBBC and Torque
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Chelm 7.00 - Casaruan 10/1
Chelm 8.00 - Numberoneson 14/1prices bet365
£10 EW double
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7.00 Chelm - Old News - win at 6/1 bet365
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Cheers richard ....... interesting discussion!
good luck ........ ?
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7 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:
I can see now ........it is a different way but I'm not sure how that would effect the value score .....the original is designed so that every section is on the same scale ...then you can adjust the percentages of each field......the way your doing it assumes all fields are equal but theres no flexibility for change .....it will either work or it wont ....its like you've allocated 25% to each field....all it means is you have less flexibility.....not saying it's wrong...just different .....your way is like setting the percentage to 25 and it stays that way always....do you know what I mean?
I know what you mean .... I follow what you're saying
My fields are not equal because there's a different amount of points available within each field ......... for example 'Form' accounts for 55% of the total available points
and it is flexible in that I can adjust the number of points available within each field............ or indeed add new fields as things occur to me going along
Basically I'm just awarding different number of points to each field whereas you are awarding different percentages to each field ?
We're both ranking the various factors but just in a different way!
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3 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:
Are you doing that differently??...are you just adding up the scores but not multiplying each score by its group percentage ?? Or am I reading it wrong ?
Yes, I'm just adding up the scores to get a total score then working out the % based on the total score
It looks like you are weighting the different factors that make up the score by awarding each factor a % then multiplying the score within each factor by that set % ........ I'm not using group percentages
my weighting is based on the number of points available within each factor........ so there's a maximum of 10 points for Form, 3 points for C and D, 3 points for Class and 2 points for age
My top score would be 18 ........ that would be a horse that has won it's last two races, had won over CD, was in the youngest age group in the race, had won in this class and was down in class from it's last run
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I'm going to try to post my 'chart for the 7.00 at Chelmford tomorrow (formatting permitted!)
13/2 Old News - (age 2, form 8, C/D 2, cl 2) 14 - 20.28% (4/1)
16/1 Seas of Elzaam - (age 2, form 5, C/D 3, cl 0) 10 - 14.49% (6/1)
12/1 Casaruan - (age 2, form 3, C/D 3, cl 0) 8 - 11.59% (15/2)
8/1 Strawberry Jack - (age 1, form 0, C/D 3, cl 3) 7 - 10.14% (9/1)
9/2 Johnny Rebb- (age 1, form 4, C/D 1, cl 0) 6 - 8.69% (11/1)
12/1 Glenn Coco - (age 0 , form 0 , C/D 3 , cl 2) 5 - 7.24% (13/1)
6/1 Dutch Decoy- (age 2, form 0, C/D 1, cl 2 ) 5 - 7.24% (13/1)
25/1 Triple Distilled - (age 1, form 0, C/D 1 , cl 2) 4 - 5.79% (16/1)
10/1 Masked Identity- (age 0, form 0, C/D 1, cl 2) 3 - 4.34% (22/1)
5/2 Brunel Charm - (age 2, form 1, C/D 0, cl 0) 3 - 4.34% (22/1)
8/1 Final Frontier - (age 0, form 3, C/D 0, cl 0) 2 - 2.89% (33/1)
66/1 Mostaqqer - (age 2, form 0, C/D 0, cl 0) 2 - 2.89% (33/1)
Assuming that appears OK .......
The first figure is the current odds at Bet365
then the horses name
then in brackets the points awarded under my 4 headings for awarding points
then the total points for the horse
then the % chance of winning
finally My Odds in bracketsI've listed these in order from my favourite to my outsiders
So what I'm looking at for 'value' is the first odds now at bet365 compared to my odds at the end of the line
You'll see that my first 3 all look good value!
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2 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:
I think so .....I'm just used to my way ....if you want to pick a race tomorrow and we can check then that would be a good exercise
I've done the 7.00 at Chelmsford tomorrow which seems to be the best handicap on the flat ...........
I haven't posted anything up yet as I was waiting for the prices tomorrow !
Odds - Season 3 Week 1 (Deadline 3pm Sat 16th January)
in Football Tipster Competition
Posted
Having had a so-so record at picking winners I tried something different and went for 'Over 2.5 Goals'. ..... and the 3rd goal in my game was scored in the 16th minute ..... I didn't have to wait long for that one !