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Trotter

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Posts posted by Trotter

    GENERAL RACING CHIT CHAT

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    I think RPR are more useful when it comes to grizzled old handicappers who have run a few dozen times

    Years ago when I was concentrating on AW handicaps I used to look at RPR ..... and I was looking to see if there was any pattern in a horse's past form. These were lower grade handicaps full of well experienced horses

    So I was looking to see if a horse produced it's best RPRs at one of the AW tracks over the others or at a specific distance or in a specific class of race or in big or small fields........ I was trying to guage whether today's race was likely to see the horse at his best in comparison to what it had done before

    As always though ...... this was only one factor amongst several that went in to the race assessment

     

    GENERAL RACING CHIT CHAT

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    As for today's race what the RPR is saying is that the run of Quasiamart on 5th Nov in their opinion was a 15lb better performance than the run of Dobryn on 13th Jan

    That's their assessment of those 2 runs

    That's only 1 factor to take into account for today though .... is one of the horses improving rapidly and might leave previous RPRs behind ...... has one of them got much more favourable conditions as to the ground, trip etc today and therefore might do much better than he has in previous runs. Alternatively did one horse have perfect conditions when it earned it's rating but probably won't be suited by todays ground and trip so will probably score lower today

    Is one yard in form now but was out of form when the horse earned it's previous rating ........ so the horse might run much better today

    etc, etc

    GENERAL RACING CHIT CHAT

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    All form ratings are opinions .... it's somebody's opinion of what the form was worth

    I think maybe RPR and Timeform are different .......

    I think RPR are trying to put a figure on what each past run is worth in terms of form on a common standard so all past runs by all horses can be directly compared with a figure

    I believe Timeform are doing something different ....... saying what they think a horse is capable of in the future, hence all the p and P and squiggles etc. Of course an opinion of past form is built into that 

    But it all comes down to opinion ........ was that run at Sedgefield two weeks ago worth 130 or 120 ?

    It's opinion.

    All you can hope for from any ratings is that they use the same criteria today as they did last week and the ratings are consistently formed on the same basis year after year and hence performances are being compared to the same standard all the time

     

    GENERAL RACING CHIT CHAT

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    57 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

    RATINGS UNDER SCRUTINY

    12.30 Lud Qualismart  Top RPR of 134, 10 points clear of nearest rival (Timeform top and 9 points clear).  This horse is an odds on favourite (or evens one the Exchanges) to win this race.  When you look back in the Racing Post you will see that its last RPR when it got stuck in the mud was 114.  The time before that when it ran its most promising race the RPR was 128.  I cannot understand why it can jump from 128 (best run) to 134 now? 

    Just on this point

    The RPR for Jumps are weight adjusted to 12 stones .......... so the 128 is what he would have to run to that day if he'd been carrying 12 stones

    That day he was carrying 10-12 so 16lbs under 12 stones. So on that day he actually ran 144 but he would have run 128 if he'd been carrying 12 stones

    So today at 11 stone 8lbs he's 6 lbs below 12 stones so he gets 6 points added to his RPR of 128 to give 134 ...... 

    If he'd been carrying 12 stones 5lbs today he'd have 5 lbs taken off the 128 and his RPR today would be 123

    The RPR for past races is what he would have earned on that day if he'd been carrying 12 stones ...... as this is the same then for all horses in all runs it makes comparing each run of each horse easier because the ratings are adjusted as though they were all carrying the same weight

     

     

    GENERAL RACING CHIT CHAT

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    17 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

    I keep wanting to say isn't all this a bit over the top? Then i sit and think, wait a minute every Saturday i hear all the pundits owners, stable staff, trainers, telling the viewers how much care and love the horses get etc etc the amount of effort that has been put in to counter the loony "ban this cruel sport brigade" and then i think, sorry pal you (Elliott) have pretty much f****d us and the sport you deserve everything you get no matter what punishment they give you.

    I agree with that but I also think about all the staff at the yard, the associated businesses in the area like farriers and horse transport firms, vets etc who depend on the yard .......... I'm thinking if he's forced out of the sport then there's a lot of people and their families who are going to lose their income

    OK, the disruption might only be short term if someone else takes over and the staff might get other jobs in the industry but it'll be a very difficult period for a lot of families

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