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Trotter

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Posts posted by Trotter

    Pricing your own race

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    So there we go ...... my top rated beat all the other horses but the odds-on favourite won 

    Looking at him again the main reason he missed out on ratings points was current form.... he hadn't finished in the first 3 in either of his last two runs

    But both those runs were in Grade One races and prior to that he had finished a close up 3rd in the RSA at the Cheltenham Festival

    So he  was dropping in Class here ....... maybe points should be awarded for class drops or the recent form points should be adjusted to take account of the class of race competed in.

    But I think this does exemplify a problem with grade races. In handicaps you know that all the horses will be in the same ballpark as to their level of ability unless the handicapper has made a howler. In Grade races you will often have horses that haven't achieved much in the sense of wins but are put into Grade races because of their potential to be top class, based on breeding and value. Very difficult to quantify that into any sort of rating

    Might be worth giving up trying to rate current form and class and jut award points based on the Official Rating ...... but then you're just using someone else's rating system (the official handicapper) which kind of defeats the object

     

    Pricing your own race

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Been trying to think of a points based rating system for Grade Races

    I think I would like to have the most points for Class, points for recent form but not as many as in handicaps, points for Age on the basis that the younger horses might still be improving, points for Distance, Course and Going wins, .... also a new one 'Big Yard Points' on the basis that the big yards win most of the top races because they have the ammo

    So I've distributed points across these categories ...... a horse that ticked every box has a possible 17 points. He would be a horse that has won it's last 2 races, has won a Grade One, has won at the track, at the distance and on this going, is amongst the youngest age group in the race and comes from a big yard (no doubt he'd be pretty well odds-on!)

    Looking at the 12.45 Thurles - Grade 2

    Top rated with my odds & current bet365 odds

    Ellmay 14 points - my odds 10/3 (currently 9/2)
    Battleoverdoyen 12 points - my odds 4/1 (currently 11/2)
    Easy Game 10 points - my odds 5/1 (currently 12/1)
    Annamix 8 points - my odds 13/2 (currently 6/1)
    Allaho 6 points - my odds 9/1 (currently 10/11)

    So Ellmay is my most likely winner on ratings and is not bad at 9/2
    Easy Game would be the best value at 12/1

     

     

    Pricing your own race

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    I've also done the 6.45 at Chelmsford to see how we compare

    My top rated are ........

    8 Dutugamunu
    7 Channel Packet
    4 Zefferino

    The only horse that is a much different price to my odds is the rank outsider, Cheat at 50/1. I make him a 15/1 shot ....... but he's difficult to fancy !

    The two market leaders are my top two rated and the bookies odds are within a point of mine, so nothing there for value

    all the others except Cheat are shorter odds than my estimates


     

     

    The top two rated are the market leaders and the bookies prices agree with mine

     

    Pricing your own race

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Sou 5.30 - only 5 runner

    Ratings

    Requinto Dawn 11
    Zylan 7
    Zapper Cass 6
    Young John 3 
    Alminoor 3

    Value (current bet365 odds)

    10/3 Requinto Dawn - my odds 7/4
    7/2 Zylan - my odds 10/3
    9/1 Zapper Cass - my odds 4/1
    5/2 Young John - my odds 9/1
    3/1 Alminoor - my odds 9/1

    I had a 9/1 win on Requinto Dawn 3 days ago ..... can he go in again?. My odds suggest he's value today against the two market leaders who appear at the bottom of my ratings

    Looking only at the ratings/value you'd have to go

    Requinto Dawn - Win
    Zapper Cass - EW (providing no NRs)

    Pricing your own race

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    If I stick to my type of race there's not much for me today ...... all aged, all weather handicaps of class 5 and above. The only two races have got 3 and 5 runners which makes for an interesting different scenario

    Sou 4.30 - 3 runners

    Ratings 

    Wrath of Hector 6
    Delph Crescent 4
    Vive La Difference 1

    Value (current bet365 prices)
    11/8 Delph - my odds 7/4
    13/8 Wrath - my odds 5/6
    11/4 Vive - My odds 10/1

    Delph Crescent is the current favourite and both the other two look value against him

     

     

    Pricing your own race

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, DanV89 said:

    Personally I quite like the chances of You're Cool. Won last time out at Wolves so clearly in good heart, has form at Southwell off higher marks (3rd off 75 last year) and has a top claimer up. Think he's currently around 7/1. Fantasy Keeper shouldn't be far away either but is short enough at around 3/1.

    I have You're Cool as an 8/1 chance on the figures so the bookies have him about right. I also have Fantasy Keeper at 8/1 so doesn't look 'value' at 3/1 ....... although of course he doesn't know that!

    I guess that's the problem with these threads where you're putting up selections based on ratings and/or value ..... it doesn't take account of subjective factors which good old fashioned form study is all about

    This is more a case of 'the computer say NO'

    ?

    Pricing your own race

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    4.40 Sou

    Top Rated 

    Centurian Song 8
    Gossip 8 
    Duke of Firenze and Red Stripes 6

    Value (bet365)

    10/1 Gossip ( my price 9/2) ..... looks the value bet but his points have been gained in class 6 races to he's up in class

    Old timers, Duke of Firenze and Red Stripes are both 12/1 (my price 15/2) so not great value but could be EW punts with the dead 8 runners

    probably a race to leave alone though unless you want to take the Top Rated and Favourite, Centurian Song at 15/8 ........ he might win this by default as most of the other are either aging, class 6 types or want further than this 5 furlongs

    Pricing your own race

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    1 hour ago, DanV89 said:

    Don't know if you have a Bet365 account Trotter (or if you're even backing your selections in reality) however with them you can amend the place terms for most races. Using this one as an example Mythical Madness is 16/1 with the standard 2 places, however they are offering 14/1 for 3 places, and even 10/1 for 4 places.

    Apologies if the term 'grandmother sucking eggs' springs to mind just thought i'd make you (and others) aware if not already ?

    No, I don't have a bet365 account ... but that does sound a useful thing to know !

    The horse was single figure odds last night when I first looked at the race .... he's drifted right out and is now the outsider of the field

    I'd be a bit wary of a 10 year old after a break who's drifting in the betting ... I'd guess he's not fit and will need the run!

     

    Pricing your own race

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    6.40 Wolv

    Top Rated

    Mythical Madness 11
    Athmad 9
    Avarice 7

    Value (bet365)

    Mythical Madness 16/1 (my price 17/5)
    Avarice 8/1 (my price 6/1)
    Home Before Dusk 9/1 (my price 7/1)

    Mythical Madness stands out as top rated and best 'value' ........ 

    To be honest I wouldn't be rushing to back a 10 year olds that hasn't run for 6 months although he did win on return from a 3 month break last season

    Could do it EW but only 2 places with a field of 7

    Pricing your own race

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    6 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

    I agree, this is a very promising topic. 

    As always I am doing a fair bit of research before committing any hard earned cash.

    At the moment I have adopted a slightly different approach, I have taken my top rated selection and if they are not in the top 2 in the betting then I have assumed they are value bets.

    For the 2019/20 season (handicap chases only) there were 257 selections with 41 winners with a LSP of 127 points and an AE of 1.48.

     

    I'm thinking along similar lines ........ concentrating on your top rated horses using whichever rating system you're developing. As I said above if your rating system isn't pointing up winners then it's not working !

    Stage 2 is then to look for 'value' amongst your top rated horses

    I'm sticking to the AW handicaps for the time being and also a bit wary of class 6 races so I've got one race today .......the 6.40 at Wolves. Looked at it last night but was waiting for confirmation of a non runner which affects the prices of all the other horses ........ now confirmed and down to a field of 7 which isn't ideal

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