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Zilzalian
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Posts
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Posts posted by Zilzalian
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335 goodwood glass slippers 14/1 bet365
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I watched Burning Victory's race on the flat in France 48 days ago and it was very impressive, 20/1 is a tasty price i will have a nibble at that and hope the hurdles don't get in the way.
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3 minutes ago, Wanderlust said:
Fanshawe will say it didnt act around Goodwood, end of.
The result, regardless of who tipped Audarya, was not as big a surprise as what you are making out. Its OR is 117, same as the winner. So your argument ends right there.
Audarya was actually backed near the off, as O'briens horse drifted.
Hindsight is 20/20 and all that. I did not back the winner as I was not sure she would stay, but all the signs were there as she has been very strong at the end of her races over 10f. My opinion was IF she stayed, she would win.
Sounds like you didn't have a bet in the race, from all you have said, i ask myself why was that with such strong opinions. Anyway its all history now tomorrow is another day.
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2 minutes ago, Wanderlust said:
Thats why there are no poor bookies.
You have very strong opinions, which very often are the complete opposite to the ones I have. Neither of us are right 100% of the time. Their books will always balance in their favour.
Apart from the fact that horses simply are not machines and can just have an offday, with regards to the above race, honestly I did not fancy Audarya.
Racing at a track which she has had no experience. Racing against another 5 yr old with the exact same rating, who has looked very good recently and that form is backed up.
Throw in the mix several 3 yr olds, all in receipt of 9lb, that are improving. I just thought it was a bet fraught with dangers.
Anyway...always the next one. Every loser just makes the next winner all the nicer.
Getting beat wasn't the issue with me to be honest, happens all the time but bottom line it had the best form in the race by far and that run was all wrong so questions have to be asked, what annoyed me more was all the butt licking of Emma Banks before and after and not a mention of the original fav (was 6/4 out to 11/4) not showing up, might sound like bad eggs from me but can you imagine John Mccirrick or Francome's reaction to that race? I am curious to what Fanshawe has to say. oddly enough the last time i was so involved in a horse and its chance v the betting and so perplexed was when a horse called Gorytus 40 odd years ago was beaten it ran with its dick out and subsequently it was found to have been doped. so its more about integrity. I am a strong believer if you cant take losing you shouldn't bet and yes they are not machines and yes there maybe many factors usually idiot jockeys that get horses beat. One more thing most people on here and in the media tipped up Audarya
- The Brigadier and Bedlam
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Well I just can't work that out to be honest, there is no way Audarya was right and questions should be asked but we have to accept that it is all part and parcel of this game and sometimes you have to take it on the chin. Cats dead, computer is in pieces wife aint talking to me, and i only have one arm and one leg left. but the trees are still green and the sky is still blue, and the grand kids are still healthy.
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20 hours ago, Zilzalian said:
2YO 6F Richmond stakes speed figures
1 Caturra 127+
2 Perfect Power 127
3 Khunan 125
Hearts says perfect power but gotta go with the figures and to be honest value so Caturra it is at around 10/1
I like this race so im going all in on R/FCast
335 I think if Audarya doesnt win we should all pack up and stick to dominoes back in the smoke room. max max max bet, print your own money.
410 another 2yo race not much to go on but will chuck a speculative one in here South Audley
No excuses for Caturra didnt handle the ground but what a shocker from Hanagan (usually rock solid) but the figures were held up by Khunan so i am reasonably pleased with said figures.
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17 hours ago, Zilzalian said:
2YO 6F Richmond stakes speed figures
1 Caturra 127+
2 Perfect Power 127
3 Khunan 125
Hearts says perfect power but gotta go with the figures and to be honest value so Caturra it is at around 10/1
I like this race so im going all in on R/FCast
335 I think if Audarya doesnt win we should all pack up and stick to dominoes back in the smoke room. max max max bet, print your own money.
410 another 2yo race not much to go on but will chuck a speculative one in here South Audley
Some silly betting swings in the Richmond, perfect power out to 13/2 is weird on what it has done, I am not sure Ebro River is any value at the now 4/1 the fav is the King horse at a very miserly 9/4 its speed figures don't back it up, this is the most interesting race of the day for me.
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3 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:
Steady on, Audarya is not worth half of anyone's betting bank. It has to give 9lbs to Joan Of Arc which is now promoted as favourite for this event
Bigger price for Audarya now and if i barffed myself every time an O'Brien horse was hyped i would never have a bet, every horse he has ever run is the best since Galileo the list is endless and even when they are near the best horse since Galileo they get beat by one of his outsiders. The betting bank comment was tongue in cheek btw. But the rest is reasoned logic, there is no such thing as a dead cert as we all know. My argument is simply it should be odds on on all known form. @The Brigadierreally fancied Fearby on Wednesday for excellent reasons but it didn't win, that's what we as risk takers do, we take a position back our judgement and hope we are right if we are wrong we move on.
- gbettle, The Equaliser and yossa6133
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150 Mr Excellency
225 Caturra
300 Youth Spirit
335 Audarya
410 south Audley
445
520 Digital
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8 minutes ago, Villa Chris said:
You honestly that confident ?
look at the form, all i am saying is it should be odds on.
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£10 reverse forecast caturra/perfect power
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13 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:
RESULTS UPDATE
My last two races at Sandown were cancelled and the first part of my post seems to have gone missing so a right mess. Anyhow, after all my efforts I am up 86p so that is what I will put down for today. I am still annoyed over the running of Fizzle Rock earlier. It shakes my confidence in racing when so called in-form horses run like donkeys. My new balance is £701.05 (Bank £1056.22).
More Goodwood tomorrow; let's hope for a better day
Put half your bank on Audarya and if it doesn't win at least i wont be the only one steaming and looking for a rope and a lamppost.
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Audarya
Every day we see odds on shots many many of them have very little to recommend them. Audarya was very unlucky in france on arc day could have beaten Tarnawa in that.
Went on and won at the breeders cup at an unbelievable price, it then took on Love and arguably had the worst passage and again was a huge price, it also handles any ground. lots think love and or Tarnawa (4th and 6th in the anti post market) could win the Arc so If someone can tell me why Audarya isn't odds on in this race then I would very much appreciate the reasoning. Win or lose that price represents the best value i have seen for any horse this year or last for that matter, says this bloke that hates betting on favs.
- The Brigadier, yossa6133, Offramp and 1 other
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225 goodwood Caturra 9/1 bet365
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2YO 6F Richmond stakes speed figures
1 Caturra 127+
2 Perfect Power 127
3 Khunan 125
Hearts says perfect power but gotta go with the figures and to be honest value so Caturra it is at around 10/1
I like this race so im going all in on R/FCast
335 I think if Audarya doesnt win we should all pack up and stick to dominoes back in the smoke room. max max max bet, print your own money.
410 another 2yo race not much to go on but will chuck a speculative one in here South Audley
- MCLARKE, gbettle, The Brigadier and 3 others
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5 minutes ago, fd1972uk said:
Knew that was happening.
Quirky animal alcohol free i had fortunes on it at big prices up to and in the guineas, its up and down like a groom on its wedding night
- The Equaliser and fd1972uk
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16 hours ago, Zilzalian said:
2yo speed figures for the 3:00 Goodwood
I am going to stick with the raw figures here because i am uncertain about the "acting on the ground" angle.
1 Swayze 129+ 25/1
2 Amour 128 8/1
3 Chipotle 127 4/1
I would not put anyone off Fearby because it has the best figures on the soft, most of the runners we have to speculate
but the price is far too short for me for what it has done so far. And I am sure Martyn Meade would not run
Swayze if he didn't think it could handle the ground.
4:10 Goodwood, Opinion based on not enough data is that canonised is the bet in this race i think experience may well get it home.
The winner is in there. So a bit of profit after covering the 15 bets it takes for the permutations. Swayze will be better than that, it suffered a good bump coming out of the stalls
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13 hours ago, Zilzalian said:
150 Pleasant Man
225 Valeria Messalina
300 Swayze
335 Tilsit
410 Canonised
445
520 Epic Endeavour.
225 res Lullaby moon
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300 Goodwood Swayze 25/1 betfred
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150 Pleasant Man
225 Valeria Messalina
300 Swayze
335 Tilsit
410 Canonised
445
520 Epic Endeavour.
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2yo speed figures for the 3:00 Goodwood
I am going to stick with the raw figures here because i am uncertain about the "acting on the ground" angle.
1 Swayze 129+ 25/1
2 Amour 128 8/1
3 Chipotle 127 4/1
I would not put anyone off Fearby because it has the best figures on the soft, most of the runners we have to speculate
but the price is far too short for me for what it has done so far. And I am sure Martyn Meade would not run
Swayze if he didn't think it could handle the ground.
4:10 Goodwood, Opinion based on not enough data is that canonised is the bet in this race i think experience may well get it home.
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Just now, Zilzalian said:
Angel Blue Available at 33/1 early yesterday but now Lusail is a non runner will be a short price added to the market move.
most interesting piece of form on heavy ground is Escobar, Currently 40/1. Beating Lord north on said heavy ground.
- The Equaliser and Tedthewolf
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13 hours ago, The Brigadier said:
Lot of love for Angel Bleu here tonight - fingers crossed
Angel Blue Available at 33/1 early yesterday but now Lusail is a non runner will be a short price added to the market move.
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14 hours ago, Zilzalian said:
3:00 Goodwood Real Appeal 20/1 bet365
Real Appeal NR so Mia Mento 20/1 bet365 at galway
Racing Chat - Friday July 3oth
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
I dont take Nursery's too seriously so i only mess about with small fc and tc
For information purposes only, the top 3 rated by my speed figures are all trained by Hannon
1 Topaz Power 123
2 Robjon 120
3 Sows 119+ (probably prefers G-F ground)
Yesterday i was banging on about Audarya being the best bet (6/4-11/4) i have seen in 2 years i stand by that, but the Horse didn't turn up, anyone suggesting that that was its running or just wasn't good enough totally ignores form in my opinion and its all about opinions. But i digress, today we have the worst 6/4 shot i have seen in a good while in Battash, yes it can win but 6/4? i personally wouldn't touch it at 6/1. many backed Suesa at Ascot it did a lot better than the bear result appears so might be worth a nibble but im going with Glass Slippers hoping Kevin Ryan has got it fit.