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Zilzalian

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Posts posted by Zilzalian

    Racing Chat - Saturday 21st August

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    1 hour ago, The Brigadier said:

    think the ground just went for her i'm afraid 

    I think you may be correct, this is only one of two (the other being Midway) horses to follow this year just shows both have been beaten twice, todays race time didnt really indicate it was slow ground (1.83s slow) i will give it another chance because Saffron beach is a very good horse on most form. maybe get my money back when Potapova reverts back to AW.

    Racing Chat - Saturday 21st August

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    4 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

    Well it looks like the ground has gone against Potapova but too late the bets on and is staying on so i hope no one tells the horse its legs fell off.

    On the good side, looks like the 20/1 anti post i got on Mt Leinster is looking good value.

    The ups and downs of GG racing really is a buzz.

    Lets hope i haven't got a face like an aardvark by 4.00pm

    Potapova- Don't think i can blame the ground, ah well can't be right all the time best suggestion is that it must be a lot better on the all weather. big step up from that to G1

    Racing Chat - Friday August 20th

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    10 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

    This may well have been just a typo on his part.  The fact remains that he has flagged a selection that did win.  I don't like price witch hunts on this forum

     

    Wasn't a typo, the discrepancy came about between me taking the price and me promoting the horse on here by the time i posted it was down to 5/4 from 7/4 so that is the price (5/4) i quoted on here. I think and took it as @fd1972uk was just curious which is a good thing.

    Racing Chat - Saturday 21st August

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted · Edited by Zilzalian
    update

    Saturdays fun 40p Lucky 15 = £6.00

    205 Sand                   Star From Afarhh           8/1      lost

    240 Sandown           Potapova                       7/1      lost

    410 York                    Caturra                           11/2    2nd

    520 York                    Tashgheel                      16/1     lost

    bank now down to  £71.22

    Racing Chat - Saturday 21st August

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    9 hours ago, The Brigadier said:

    The final day of the York Ebor meeting where we’ve seen some terrific action from the likes of Mishriff, Snowfall and Stradivarius. There is plenty of rain around tomorrow and its just a case of how much gets into the ground.

     

    York 1.50

    The 9F Strensall Stakes is a Group 3 event and has attracted a field of 7 this year. Lord Gliiters is a terrific old campaigner but may struggle to get competitive here under a 7lb penalty. The two to be interested in are favourite Real World, trained by Saeed Bin Suroor, who did us a favour in the Royal Hunt Cup at Ascot when bolting up on the far side at 18/1 and has stepped up in grade successfully since when winning the 10F listed Steventon Stakes at Newbury. This is a further step up the ladder and is officially the best horse in the field. He must go close on ground he’s proven on. Roger Varian saddles the second favourite El Drama and this one has plied his trade in better company this season finishing placed behind St Marks Basilica when 4th (and last!) in the Eclipse and then runner up at Goodwood behind mile sensation Baaeed. I think the winner will come from one of this pair and I’ll stick with Real World. 

    REAL WORLD 2 points win @ 5/4 Bet365

     

    Sandown 205

    The Group 3 Solario  Stakes has only attracted a small field of 7 with a skinny favourite in the Gosden’s Reach For The Moon who will take plenty of beating. He was impressive when booting clear from subsequent dual winner Harrow at Newbury under identical conditions and with Dettori in the saddle can follow up. At his odds he’s not worth a bet so it’ll be a sit back and enjoy race. Mark Johnstone’s Austrian Theory is actually officially rated a pound better horse than Reach For The Moon and could be the horse to chase him home.

     

    York 2.25

    A maximum field of 22 go to post for this years renewal of the Skybet Melrose handicap which looks as competitive as it’s ever been. Dhushan heads the betting and must go close. This lightly raced William Haggas trained colt steps up in trip following an excellent runner up spot at Ascot in July when jockey Daniel Tudhope came from too far back to worry the winner. He’s up 3lb for that but can be competitive. Regular readers will know I’m a big fan of Sir Mark Prescott’s Summer’s Knight and having won 4 of his last 5 starts should run well. Plenty of others have chances in the wide open handicap including Imperial Sun and the Roger Varian trained Moshaawer who wasn’t suited by the steady pace at Newcastle last time so I’ll split my stakes between Dhushan and Moshaawer 

    DHUSHAN 1 point each way @ 7/1 1/5 123456 William Hill

    MOSHAAWER 1 point each way @ 11/1 1/5 123456 William Hill

     

    Sandown 2.40

    Indigo Girl is the highest rated of these today in this Group 3 Atalanta Stakes but does come with questions to answer following her re-appearance defeat when similarly highest rated at Ascot and only finishing 4th beaten 7 1/2L by Dreamloper. She ran far too freely that day and will need to settle better here to have a winning chance. She comes with too many questions now so is worth opposing. Maamora is two from two here including this race last season but has failed to fire at Epsom last time and is another with questions to answer. Sir Michael Stoute runs two in Ville De Grace and Potapova who both missed a run at Haydock a fortnight ago when the ground turned soft. The latter has always been highly rated by the Newmarket stable and was not only slightly out of her depth last time in a Group 1 but reportedly hated the soft ground. Back on a better surface she can be backed to fulfil her earlier promise. I’m just keeping my fingers crossed that the rain stays away from Esher. 

    POTAPOVA 1 ½ points each way @ 15/2 1/5 123 BetVictor

     

    York 3.00

    Space Blues had the soft ground against him on his re-appearance at Goodwood but still ran a stormer to finish 4th beaten under a length to Kinross and back on a sounder surface and likely to strip fitter now will be hard to beat in this Group 2 Skybet City Of York Stakes under William Buick riding for chief Godolphin trainer Charlie Appleby. Ed Walker saddles the big danger in his smart 3 year old filly Primo Bacio who got no sort of run in the Prix Rothschild earlier in the month ending up coming home beaten only 2L by Mother Earth. She’s currently rated 5lb interior to Space Blues and can chase him home. 

    SPACE BLUES 2 points win @ 11/8 William Hill

     

    York 335

    A terrific turn out for one of the best and most competitive handicaps of the year The Skybet Ebor handicap run over 1m 6F. Yorkshireman William Haggas has yet to win this prestigious handicap and is going all out to take this year’s renewal by saddling four. Hamish may well be the best of the quartet despite not being seen for over a year but he ideally needs to get his toe in and unless the ground changed dramatically I’m happy to pass on him. Ilaraab is the other fancied one from team Haggas although he too would have appreciated easier ground. His other pair are Pablo Escobar and Roberto Escobar with the latter having a definite chance on his latest run when 4th in Group 3 company. Last year’s victor Fujaira Prince is back to defend his crown but is 6lb higher now and has it to do on recent form with the aforementioned Roberto Escobar who was only 1/2L behind him over course and distance last month and is now 7lb better off (although that was Fujaira Prince’s first run of the season). Tribal Craft would be very interesting IF the ground turned soft as he’s 4lb well in here today following his good 2nd to the smart Wonderful Tonight at Goodwood whilst Max Vega is another who ideally needs if on the slow side. Godolphin’s Global Storm is a consistent stayer that shouldn’t be overlooked but is creeping up the handicap. It’s a wide open race and many have chances but at the prices I’ll take William Haggas’s lightly raced handicap debutant Roberto Escobar to triumph with a saver on Tribal Craft who will appreciate any easing in the ground. 

    ROBERTO ESCOBAR 1 point each way @ 16/1 1/5 123456 William Hill

    TRIBAL CRAFT 1 point each way @ 12/1 1/5 123456 William Hill

     

    Potapova max bet for me, its first two wins were outstanding i like you have my fingers crossed but i have got to move in now and take the 7/1

    Racing Chat - Friday August 20th

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted · Edited by Zilzalian

    10 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

    What about the distance? Do you think that the horse should stick to 7f in the future?  The second ran really well but the RP's selection gave you your 5+ lengths

    not sure yet to be honest i will watch the race several more times before i decide i am trying to work out the very slow times of all the races at this meeting its a real quandary. I watched it again and it won pretty well i think the horse in second is the key if that wins next time out i think this is a very good battling performance and albarh was well on top at the line. i think this is a good horse but i would be a bit cautious on soft ground.

     

    Racing Chat - Friday August 20th

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    20 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

    I wouldn't ever call you names, I just couldn't resist implying that you only had £6.00 on Alhabr in the 6.53 at Salisbury tonight as I knew that this was simply not true.  It is now 8/11 as you say. This reminds me of Jenny Pitman who once said "it doesn't matter how much money you bet on a horse it won't make it run any faster". That aside, let us hope that it will be Sweeping away the opposition later.  I love it when PL members make a bit of money for themselves and their followers ?    

    Many thanks for your comments regarding Time and Form.  I guess you think of horses having the best form who have ran well in the better class races as opposed to their challengers.

     

    Well this nob head top rated Lusail then decided that orazio was far better value at 10/1 by off time Lusail was a decent price, so that just about sums time and form and me up lol

    Racing Chat - Friday August 20th

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    27 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

    When you write stuff up as you did about this horse last night it reminds me about an incident of a horse named White Muzzle many years ago. A man walked into a betting shop with carrier bags stuffed full of money, it was about £30k.  So impressed with the horse's previous performance that he insisted on putting all his money on the horse in an overseas event.  He wanted the price on offer of 9/4.  After a phone call the betting shop manager took the bet.  The horse lost.  It just concerns me that punters may feel over confident about your selection and put too much money on your horse.  I hope it wins and I hope that they win but one has to be sensible about how much money to put on any horse.

    With regards to tipster selections that I highlight it is very much a trial experiment of finding the best of the best out there for anyone being persuaded by the main sporting press.  One still has to do research into the selections no matter what the price of a horse is.  Yesterday, there were only 3 selections and the best priced horse was The Tron in the 8.05 at Wolverhampton.  One of the irresponsible journalists imo said that it didn't matter that the horse was up in distance from 6f to 7f.  Well, it did matter to me and I said so in one of my posts.  The horse was backed into 2/1 favourite and I read that it faded in the last furlong.

    As I have said time and time again on this forum, with so many horses running on anyone day. a tip by anyone's true worth lies in taking another look and seeing for oneself if the circumstances are right for the horse to have a winning chance today and if it is therefore worth having a bet on it.

    I fully expected most of my respected forum members to roll around the floor laughing when I said I was putting up tipster selections.  However, I feel it worth mentioning that by me focusing on the merits of just a few horses has led me closer to achieving a full Trixie payout than I have done so in my recent past.

    It may also be worth mentioning that all the entries of today's PL's Accumulator are included in my above list.

    Haha, they nap your selection Albahr.  I do hope it wins for you and £6.00 in a lucky 15 is very sensible

     

     

       

     

    The 200.00 i have had at 7/4 is sensible. it is now 8/11 ?

    Racing Chat - Friday August 20th

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted · Edited by Zilzalian
    update

    Todays fun 40p lucky 15 = £6.00

    300 york               orazio           10/1           Blah

    653 Salisbury       Albahr           5/4             won

    420 Kempton       Bomb Proof   8/1            2nd at 10/1

    225 York              Trueshan      11/4            NR

    returns £2.75 bank down to £77.22

    Racing Chat - Friday August 20th

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    6 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

    THE SAME SELECTIONS OF THREE WELL KNOWN TIPSTERS

    Lots of qualifiers today, sadly Albah @Zilzaliandoesn't qualify but don't let me put you off ? James Doyle's a plus though ?

    1.00 Km Golden duke 7/4

    1.30 Km Natasha 10/11

    2.05 Km Mo'Assess 10/11

    4.50 Km Dual Identity 6/4,7/4

    1.50 Yk Wink Of An Eye 7/2, 4/1

    2.25 Yk Stradivarius 5/4

    2.15 Muss Aramaic 4/7

    4.00 Muss Lion Tower 10/3

    4.30 Muss Basharat 5/2

    6.00 Kilarney Western Run 9/4,11/4

    6.37 Nc Brasil Power 1/2

    7.37 Nc Gleniffer 7/4

    8.07 Nc Absolute Dream 6/4, 15/8?

    7.53 Sal Amalfi Bay 11/8,13/8

    14 qualifiers. Some are at decent prices for a Trixie.  I'll take a closer look later

     

     

    A bigger plus is the fact that it is the fastest 2yo out this season not many horses can lower a 2yo course record like this beast did at Haydock. but if you want to play with the "tipsters" that are so good they have to work for a living ???

    Racing Chat - Thursday 19th August

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    47 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

    You make some very good points  I do agree that despite whatever wonderful ratings one has the going, the track, the distance etc. all have to be taken into account.  However, going back to to the 2.25 at York today with System v Ever Given, I take your point that System had been in better class race(s). Despite this the Timeform writer stated that Ever Given had the best form.  The Timeform rating of Ever Given was 112.  The rating of System was 107 (the RPR's were both 108). Hence the only logical conclusion that I can come to is that as far as Timeform are concerned when they do their calculations for a race on the day of a race then, despite a horse having ran in a lower class race it produced such a result that meant it, as far as they are concerned, it is the best form on offer for that race. Do you agree with this assuming all other things being equal?

     

           

    The Clue is in the name, when Phil Bull first set up timeform it was quite specific in that it used time and form that is probably where the discrepancies come in. if form of a horse is its top rating but the time rating is not on horse A and horse B is the opposite say, then a calculation needs to be done, this is only a guess on my part but it may answer the question. i have similar conflicts between my speed figures and form my primary consideration is speed secondary is form. its fine where the speed figure is "standout" but as you noticed today on my rating they were all the same on 124 so what i did was take next best figure for each of the three, that was also inconclusive so then i measured them against each other on form and merit and Zain Claudette came out best so that is the one i backed as proofed by my competition selection. There is a listed 2yo race at 6:53 Salisbury tomorrow evening if you want as near a certainty as you will get Albahr is miles in front on figures and is 5/4 as we speak, it should be 1/3, if you want the FC Sweeping is next best 3 lengths behind, you may well see a superstar in Albahr tomorrow night i think it will win by over 5 lengths. it will be interesting to see if i have the margin right. you can thank me later.?

    Racing Chat - Thursday 19th August

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    3 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

    OH WHAT A LOVELY CON

    I said above that System was not the best rated horse.  My problem was that many people were saying that it had the best form.  Hence the question I wanted an answer to was how can one have a different horse as the form horse when another one is top rated.  Imo Timeform deliberately misled punters by selecting it in the their summary when they knew full well that Ever Given was their top rated horse by far.  They even cheekily said that Ever Given had the best form in the race.

    Hence, @Zilzalianand @Villa Chris or any PL member with a view can I assume (bearing in mind that to assume can make an ASS of U and ME) that if I have a top rated horse on the day then that is the form horse?

     

     

     

    I had a dilemma about the 150 re ratings my speed figures were level for all 3 so i went for the biggest price based on judgement of form  and it won. i had a bigger dilemma earlier in the season when i top rated one but the ground indicated my second rated (angel Blue) was the one so i went with my judgment rather than the figures Angel Blue did in fact win so i was justified in switching. this is why i never take any notice of tipsters or their selections it is the road to ruin in fact there are probably better or just as good tipsters on here as there are in the play safe press tipsters, if timeform was any good or as good as "they say" the bookies would be skint and lets be honest here its bloody expensive from what i hear. you have got to use your own judgment even if looking through tipsters, so why not cut out the middle man.

     

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