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Zilzalian
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Posts posted by Zilzalian
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Todays fun (40p win for men) or (20pew for the lady's) (you choose?) Lucky 15
I wont include any from York due to the conflict of interest with the competition
nor will I publish the speed figures for the 2yo races for the same reason.
240 Carl Ledham 16/1 lost
420 Carl Wilhelm Vivonster 33/1 lost
600 Worc Visions Des Flos 14/1 lost
800 Worc Shanroe Tic Tec 10/1 NR
The cashout would cost 55p so we will leave well alone.
prices as of posting bet365
Crap tipster bank now down to £74.67 from a oner start
- MCLARKE, The Brigadier, The Equaliser and 2 others
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6 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:
Hope you went with it.
I never like a having a female jockey aboard when it's a tight finish.
Think i would prefer holly doyle to crowley (too many "errors") but either way personally i prefer to disregard everything other than the horse and the race, Trainers and Jockeys are way down the list for me, but its good that you stuck with your selection even though it lost, i would certainly prefer being right about the horse and wrong about the jockey than drop the horse because a certain jockey is riding it.
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Todays fun 40p Lucky 15 = £6.00
130 wolves Sagitarius 9/2 drifted to 7/1 2nd (ran well)
555 leic Sows 7/1 Backed in to 7/2 fav (disappointing)
655 leic Zuhair 6/5 lost took wlk in mkt (poor)
455 leic Rawyaan 5/2 won
returns £2.40 bank down to £86.27
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555 leic Sows 7/1 bet365
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2 hours ago, yossa6133 said:
Dawn Raider 14/1 into 5/1 in the 5:35 Bangor. Dropped to a good handicap mark (runs in this chase off 105, highest hurdles mark 128), and found a weak looking race if they have a plot going. Couldn't fancy it on recent form but I'll follow the money.
I have backed/napped this today or last night i should say and got the 14/1, and to be honest i wouldn't touch it at 5/1 its all about value but fingers crossed and it wins.
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2 hours ago, MCLARKE said:
I must admit I took the numbers from an article on another web-site so apologies if it is incorrect.
On re-reading the article it is based on horses at 33/1 and above rather than just 33/1.
Still, whether it's 200 or 800 it's not a losing run I'd want.
Well here's the thing lads, let me say there are 33/1 shots and there are 33/1 shots some are value and most are not eg a horse that is 10years old that has never won a race is not value at 33/1 whereas one that has won many races in the past may be, my point being you would never back them blindly just like you wouldn't back favs blindly some faves are terrible value lets see how nadein gets on in the 405 for example, another example, the sp forecast for tarnawa on its last run was around 1/8 terrible value but it won at 1/2 which was brilliant value. So if you look at a race and conclude they are all as bad or as good as each other but you know/notice one of the horses in that race is capable and the only negative (in relation to the others) is its price then would you bet that 33/1 or the 3/1 fav? and if you choose that 3/1 fav what do you base that decision on? just the fact that it is fav? or the "tipsters" say say so?, ratings? only about 1 in 3 favs win. You cant use the argument that you wouldnt bet in such a race because we all do all the time when betting in handicaps.
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Todays fun 40p lucky 15 =£6.00
535 bangor Dawn Raider 12/1 lost
327 moulins lilas de france 7/1 lost
350 Lingfield Green door 11/1 lost drifted to 28/1 (ran ok)
315 lingfield algheed 2/1 won 10/3 (bog favours us here)
returns £3.07 bank down to £89.87
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535 Bangor Dawn Raider 14/1 PP
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@Offramp @The Equaliser Did you and others notice Tilsworth Rose win at 8/1 today in the 225 chelmsford given it was a non runner last time out after a bit of amusement on the 11th August in our discussion? this bloke missed it today.
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4 hours ago, Zilzalian said:
I think we may see an exciting new miler today. At the back end of last year i watched a couple of races where the horse in question didn't break sweat on its first outing and its second was quite impressive, there was obviously a problem thereafter because we didn't see it again until it turned up straight into the group 1 Prix Jean Prat in mid July where it ended up favourite and came a good 3rd you would assume it will come on a tonne for that race, this is the toughest G1 over a mile i have seen all year, Palace Pier, (has to give 6lbs) Poetic Flair, etc, Trained by the maestro Fabre ridden by Buick and owned by Godolphin the 16/1 available in places is far too big a price. I fully expect to see a big run from Midtown today at 2:50 Deauville and will be a tad disappointed and a tad poorer if it doesn't win.
Not too sure what to make of that race to be honest it was true run and probably the result reflected the chances, Midtown well i'm not sure, it looked ok travelled ok but just didn't finish as well as i thought it would but thats racing for you. the only suggestion is that the ground dried up a lot but class should win on most ground in my opinion. For me the jury is still out but i dont think anyone could argue that the first 2 didnt have the outstanding form because they did on any measure.
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12 hours ago, Zilzalian said:
Todays fun 40p Lucky 15 = £6.00
2:50 Deauville Midtown 14/1
3:25 Deauville Baratti 10/1
4:10 Chelmsford Caribbean Spring 12/1
2:35 Pontefract Boltaway 13/8
I think we may see an exciting new miler today. At the back end of last year i watched a couple of races where the horse in question didn't break sweat on its first outing and its second was quite impressive, there was obviously a problem thereafter because we didn't see it again until it turned up straight into the group 1 Prix Jean Prat in mid July where it ended up favourite and came a good 3rd you would assume it will come on a tonne for that race, this is the toughest G1 over a mile i have seen all year, Palace Pier, (has to give 6lbs) Poetic Flair, etc, Trained by the maestro Fabre ridden by Buick and owned by Godolphin the 16/1 available in places is far too big a price. I fully expect to see a big run from Midtown today at 2:50 Deauville and will be a tad disappointed and a tad poorer if it doesn't win.
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Todays fun 40p Lucky 15 = £6.00
2:50 Deauville Midtown 14/1
3:25 Deauville Baratti 10/1
4:10 Chelmsford Caribbean Spring 12/1
2:35 Pontefract Boltaway 13/8
had quite high hopes for this today but thats the way it goes Boltaway ended up 1/1 and got beat sums it up, barati ended up 4/1 did nothing but i was pleased with midtown.
bank slips to £92.80
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250 Deauville Midtown 16/1 paddypower
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6 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:
The fact they are short price doesn't mean they are not value, you can have value at any price.
The problem with big odds is that the losing runs can be horrendous so to maintain a reasonable betting banks the stakes have to be low.
With odds of 33/1 you could expect a losing streak of 846. I'm not sure I'd have the stomach for that.
I tend to have 3 big bets each day, the shortest odds I tend to include as my nap, the next shortest I include in the daily chat and the longest I put in the £20 challenge.
Over the last 5 days, my 2 shortest selections have had 9 winners from 10, my longest selections have all lost.
I don't disagree with you in any way, But i can't get excited about them, on occasion i have highlighted short priced horses as great value, Audarya was one of those, i still cant believe it got beat but Fanshawe hasn't had a winner since before that race from my recollection and i wouldn't touch one at the moment same with Fahey. i had a bad day today until Blakeney Point got me out of jail, that 22/1 i got and the 4/1 Eileen Dover made up for a lot of losers and i ended up with a bit of profit. I can understand the "sniper" approach but i use a shotgun. The area i do take Price seriously are the speed figure races i rate and group races. i do back short prices occasionally but have them in multiples usually without the singles and doubles and often the trebles.
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14 minutes ago, Villa Chris said:
Good stuff , although wrong way round. Did you have reverse forecast ?
no i dont touch them at that price to be honest i went for Robjohn to beat the other two in Forecasts just in case and a win bet on Robjohn so it cost me that one. if i was a short price backer i would have bet bayside so i wouldnt have won anyway. and thats usually part of my reasoning, why lose on non value when u can risk a little to win a lot.
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11 hours ago, Zilzalian said:
Fun 40p Lucky 15 for saturday will have to be a 20p ew instead, £6.00 i know i know i said never again but this is a no brainer
345 ripon Mokaatil 18/1
220 newbury sleeping lion 20/1
305 newmarket streamline 20/1
330 newbury nando parado 66/1
145 Newbury Listed - 2YO speed figures
1 Robjon 120 25/12 Bayside Boy 119+ 6/5
3 Masekela 116 6/4
Nothing special here at this stage of their careers is Robjon worth a little tickle at that price?
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330 newbury Nando Parado 66/1 bet365
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Fun 40p Lucky 15 for saturday will have to be a 20p ew instead, £6.00 i know i know i said never again but this is a no brainer
345 ripon Mokaatil 18/1 lost
220 newbury sleeping lion 20/1 lost
305 newmarket streamline 20/1 lost
330 newbury nando parado 66/1 lost
bit of a duffer this one and a loss of £6.00, no bad luck stories or excuses.
bank back down to £98.80
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35 minutes ago, alexcaruso808 said:
I'm looking through the Racing Post website at tomorrow's 6.23 at Thirsk.
There is a horse called Fergie Time that is currently 66/1. It last ran in a class 5 race on 27th July and came 10th out of 11.
It is now running in a class 4 6f race (last two races were 7f). Trained by Keith Dalgleish and ridden by Callum Rodgriuez.
My question is - what is the tactics behind stepping this horse up in class when they have been doing so poorly? Is the trainer entering into a race he knows the horse will do badly in and then it will drop back in class, with a drop in handicap?
I've always wondered about this, but never really asked before.
Standard practice but you are never privvy as to the reasons of any particular horse, Put it this way you have noticed something so back it anyway because you will feel like a right prat if you dont and it wins at 66/1
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Todays fun 40p Lucky 15 =£6.00
320 Newbury Canonised 11/1 lost btn 1,1/3l
738 Newmarket Power of Darkness 10/1 won
355 Newbury Swayze 7/1 3rd
617 Pornichet Akua'Bella 1/1 won
Prices bet365 at time of posting
returns of £14.00 puts us in profit, Bank now £104.80
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320 Newbury Canonised 11/1 bet365
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6:17 Deauville Zygfryd 9/1 bet365
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Todays fun 40p lucky 15 = £6.00
220 Sali Baron Slick 14/1 lost
405 Sali Perotto 8/1 3rd (ran well)
357 Deau Coefficient 7/2 lost (grim)
617 Deau Zygfryd 9/1 won
prices at time of posting bet365
Keep pinching just one but better than non
bit of profit there (£1.60) bank back up to 96.80
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1 hour ago, Villa Chris said:
My mother-in-law knows sod all about horses but she’s keeps knocking at the door for a big pay day. She’s does small stake accas and the amount of times one horse has let her down. She did win a few grand the once, but she’s came very close to five figure pay outs. She goes by name or gut feeling and doesn’t let price put her off.
then move her on to Lucky 15s or 31's to small stakes and because she bothers not about price at least she will hit now an again, the more hits the more she wins, thats my advice. i use them so i have something to watch in a race to be honest "the more you see, the more you know"
Naps - Wednesday 18th August
in NAP of the Day Competition
Posted
600 Worcester Vision Des Flos 14/1 bet365