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Zilzalian
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Posts posted by Zilzalian
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223 Leic Dartington 12/1 bet365
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350 Long makzeem 16/1 PPower
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12:50 Deauville Sledge Hammer 33/1 bet365
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855 wilves mia mia 11/1 bet365
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Last autumn I saw a horse so impressive on two occasions I wrote it on my wall. I was going to back it anywhere it turned up and at any distance and any going.
I have not seen it since, until today it goes straight into G1 company at Deauville (2.50) That horse is Midtown a Godolphin horse trained by the genius Mr Fabre, currently available at 4/1. whatever it does today will set it up for the season.
An observation based on past and present. I have noticed that Fabre does not or rarely uses Barcelona on his other horses, he has to use him on Goldophin Horses. i follow Fabre religiously and i would love to be a fly on the wall for the conversation after that race, He managed to get beat by 2 outsiders because he chose to try to beat Battleground and forgot he had to beat the others also. IMHO, He Barcelona does plenty wrong far too often (remember pour moi in the derby?) he got away with that one. Midtown is a serious racehorse and i will get my money back soon as it runs next so im not bothered about losing but i do get a bit irked when jockeys think they are better than the horse.
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520 salis crown power 10/1 bet365
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Superlative stakes 315 Newmarket 7F 2yo G2. speed figures.
1 Dhabad 122 15/8
2 Mott and the Messer 121 25/1
3 Mr McGann 119 9/1
That's a very skinny price for Dhabad I wont be touching that even with the wife's money.
Well that didn't turn out well but Native Trail needs keeping on your side.
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29 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:
Good advice from @Zilzalian, personally I started making money when I stopped following tipsters and RP ratings etc, I'm sure they are very good but this will be factored in to the prices so you unlikely to find value by following them.
You often need to go against the crowd to make money, ignore those with obvious good form last time, well known jockeys etc.
Paper trade your strategy before staking real money.
I would ignore multiple bets and concentrate on perhaps 3 single bets a day, using proportional staking should mean plenty of winning days.
Only use BOG bookies and ensure that you get the best price available, otherwise don't bet.
You are indeed correct about "win bets only" that is the bookies biggest loser. However, multiple bets are useful for those punters that don't have much money to spend on betting and its a good way of having a fun bet especially on tv races for small stakes. a good example is tomorrow ,11 races, a couple of lucky 15's (in tomorrows case 3) and you get a horse to watch in each race with a chance of getting a half decent payout..Although my main punt is win bets, i always do multiples as well (40p lucky 15s mainly cost 6 quid) because i get a lot of pleasure/fun out of them mainly because i put bigger prices on them. I Never back a jockey, there is not a jockey on the planet that can get a horse to go faster but there are many that can get them beat including the tops jocks.
- peanut peanut, gbettle and MCLARKE
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300 ascot space traveller 20/1 bet365
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22 hours ago, The Brigadier said:
Six terrestrial TV races for racing on Friday and the times looked fast enough at Newmarket on Thursday despite the fact they were kicking the top off. York is officially good to soft so best to look for horses who like to get their toe in at the Yorkshire track..
Newmarket 150
A competitive three year old handicap run over 10F. Many of the big Southern stables are represented and it maybe the Newmarket handler William Haggas that takes the spoils with his Pride Of Dubai gelding who made his re-appearance in the Britannia Handicap at Royal Ascot when racing on the seemingly unfavoured far side and coming home best of that group finishing 4th in the race only beaten 2 1/2L. That was a hell of a run and with normal improvement can take a hand in the finish of this open handicap. The dangers are plenty with John & Thady Gosden running two in Peter The Great and Highland Rocker with the former of that pair possibly the biggest danger to my selection. Royal Ascot winner Foxes Tales comes into the equation though has to prove himself on faster ground and is 9lb higher than his win.
DAUBAI HONOUR 1 point each way @ 9/2 William Hills 1/5th 1234
York 205
Cormier has been pulled out twice since winning at Pontefract in May due to the ground being too fast and this Brian Ellison 5 year old looks thrown in on his hurdle form. He will be hard to beat today with conditions to suit. He was runner up in the Swinton Handicap Hurdle at Haydock in May and is currently rated 133 in that sphere. He can race off of 75 today and has the soft ground he obviously needs. His opponents are all much of muchness in my eyes with the best of them possibly Bollin Joan who bounced back to form last time but has to shoulder a 5lb penalty.
CORMIER 3 points win @ 5/2 William Hill
Newmarket 225
Andrew Balding had an excellent Royal Ascot with three winners and one of those Sandrine can follow up here and take this Group 2 Duchess Of Cambridge Stakes. She took the Albany Stakes from Hello You with Oscula back in third and the disappointing Flotus way back in 13th. I can’t really see any reason why this daughter of Bobby Kitten won’t confirm the form on much faster ground as an American bred she should be best on a sounder surface. Ralph Beckett’s Hello You has 1 1/2L to make up on the selection and may chase her home.
SANDRINE 3 points win @ 15/8 Bet365
York 2.40
Charlie Fellowes saddles two with chances here in Onassis and Vadream and it’s the latter that catches my eye in the Group 3 William Hill Summer Stakes run over 6F for fillies and mares only. This three year old drops back to 6F having run an excellent third in the 7F Jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot on soft ground last time out behind Creative Force who’s a big fancy for the July Cup on Saturday. Jamie Spencer is in the saddle and looks sure to run a big race. Stable mate Onassis has soft ground form and could give Fellowes a 1-2.
VADREAM 2 points win @ 5/2 Bet365
Newmarket 300
A widely competitive 1m 6F Class 2 Heritage Handicap. The Golden Gates Handicap form from Royal Ascot is well represented here by winner Amtiyaz (been raised 4lb) and 3rd and 4th Global Storm ( up 2lb) and Arthurian Fable (up 1b ) and all three have claims. I’m interested in a couple here and will be backing both with my main bet on the Saeed Bin Suroor trained Live Your Dream who stepped up in trip at Wolverhampton over 2 miles last month and cantered home winning by 6 1/2L. He’s been raised 10lb for that victory but he may still be head of the assessor and the fact that his trainer pit him in the Group 1 Goodwood Cup and Group 2 Lonsdale Stakes recently may suggest that his connections feel he’s better than a handicapper. He can be backed each way with firms with enhanced place terms. The second selection is George Boughey’s Lostwithiel who looks over priced. He ran in the 2m 4F handicap at the Royal meeting and blatantly didn’t stay that day but take that run out of his CV and we have a progressive horse who had previously run Global Storm to 1/2L here at the Rowley Mile course and us 4lb better off with Arthurian Fable 2L behind. Global Storm and Arthurian Fable are currently priced at 6/1 and 8/1 whilst Lostwithiel can be backed at 14/1 which looks value.
LIVE YOUR DREAM 1 ½ points each way @ 15/2 Paddy Power 1/5th 12345
LOSTWITHIEL 1 point each way @ 14/1 paddy Power 1/5th 12345
Newmarket 335
The Tattersalls Falmouth Stakes is a Group 1 contest for fillies and mares and is run over 1 mile of the July course. A quality field of 13 has declared for this years renewal. Alcohol Free proved she can handle any ground when winning the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot on heavy from Snow Lantern and Mother Earth who both re-oppose today. That pair have 1 1/2L and a neck to make up although today’s ground will be significantly faster so it may be possible that they could. The older brigade are led by the likes of Indie Angel who may have been flattered by winning the Duke Of Cambridge Stakes at Ascot as she was given a peach of a ride by Dettori on the fastest part of the track. The filly I like is Ed Walker’s Primo Bacio who missed Ascot due to the soft ground and will love this faster terrain. She was so impressive in a listed race at York in May when she beat Snow Lantern far easier than Alcohol Free did at Ascot, readily scooting clear to win by a comfortable 3L from Creative Flair (winner since). She looked very smart that day and with fast ground likely here in her favour looks the bet.
PRIMO BACIO 1 ½ points each way @ 6/1 1/5th 12345
@The Equaliser A 10p lucky 63, £6.30 on @The Brigadier selections returned 107.58 My advice to you last night to shadow the brigadiers selections for a while was the best tip your going to get this year. Well done The Brigadier excellent tipping and info.
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9 hours ago, The Equaliser said:
Very many thanks for your considerate and helpful advice. For me the problem is knowing when to back a decent favourite that will run its race. Sure, I get persuaded by the experts to back one horse over another which is based upon not only their choices but also the market and RP and Timeform ratings. I also like to look at jockey bookings especially the jockeys who achieve something like a 20%+ strike rate in a normal season. I seldom include favourites of less than even money because if a double comes in I like to at least get my Trixie stakes back. I'll give your idea a go by making 4 selections instead of three. However this will be a "Yankee" bet of 50p for 11 outcomes = £5.50. For the singles I will use a stake of £2 which gives me scope to achieve better odds on the Betfair Exchange and I feel that the weighting of the stakes is proportionately superior . The total stakes will be £13.50. I can't promise to go for the outsiders as I haven't yet finished with backing horses at the front end of the market despite your well advised comments and me moaning about choosing the wrong horse(s).
Great Nap tip the other day with Gavi di Gavi at 20/1
I gave you advice re lucky 15's you countered with a 50p yankee =5.50. a 40p lucky 15 =6.00 with a chance of one winner double the odds, consider you get only 1 winner on your yankee at 6/1 you win nothing, a loss of 5.50 Whereas a 40p lucky 15 you return 5.20 a loss of just 80p.
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3 hours ago, harrisman said:
Actually regarding fcasts and indeed tricasts they can be some of the best value bets IMO however gen only worth placing just before the off as they are based on the SP and the make up of the race needs to be right with the type of jockey and trainer that has no interest in being placed if it can't win on a fav or 2ndfav getting out the frame.
There's always a few everyday if you know what you are looking for and at the right prices you only need to get the occasional hit to be in profit.
365 do BOG on fc which is handy.
- The Equaliser and gbettle
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4 hours ago, MCLARKE said:
I normally go for win bets bet EW maybe if their are extra places available or if their is an odds on favourite. I haven't done a forecast for years, I read somewhere that the way they are calculated means they are bad value.
It is the case that returning forecasts and tricasts are hammered by the bookies, some of them are shocking beyond belief but you have to work with what is available and the best way to think of FCs is if your selection is a decent price lets say 10/1 or greater then pic another and put it in a forecast for small stakes ish unless your confident then u can use a higher stake. one of the main problems with punters they seem to be more worried about losing so are dismissive of what they perceive to be "longshots"
- The Equaliser and MCLARKE
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1 hour ago, The Equaliser said:
RESULTS UPDATE
I don't know why it is but so often when I look at the results of the races where I make selections I quite often am not surprised to see the winner and just wonder to myself, why didn't I back that one? I am hoping that I will improve as time goes by and start selecting the best horses to back. One gets so confused with conflicting points of view and I need to learn to ignore them.
Anyway, just a place bet came in today so I incurred a loss of £19.65. My new balance is £727.42 (Bank £1056.22)
Tons of top class racing tomorrow at Newmarket, Ascot and York. Let's hope that I can find some decent selections to bet on
Little bit of friendly advice, You have lost over 300 quid of your bank, might i suggest you stop whatever it is your doing and find something different, seems to me other peoples opinions are losing your money. Might i also suggest you will never win backing favs in any form. the only thing you should be reading is the results section of the racing post weekender, watch (not listen) to as much racing as possible and have a notebook to hand, if you get a small population of horse from notes and back from your notes irrespective of price you can drop lucky, use Lucky 15s instead of trixies because if you get 1 winner they double the odds, you wouldn't believe the difference that makes especially if that 1 winner is a decent price. Many people are very wary of bigger priced horses when they should be wary of the short priced ones, al aasy today was just one example Charlton managed to get 2 odds on shots beaten yesterday. every day add up how many short priced horse get beat if you don't believe what i am saying. if you saw my betting book you would be horrified at the sheer amount of bets i have and the losers i get, but because i very rarely back favs so when i do win it wipes out my loses and produces a profit. Now I will contradict myself here--- @The Brigadier has a totally different approach to me, but I am guessing he is very measured it is obvious he knows his horses and he publishes them here so why not shadow his selections (or choose 3 or 4 of them) for a while?
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225 N-M Ellade 40/1 bet365
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Well managed to nab a good placed GG (Sam Maximus) at 40/1 despite my nap (Dig Two) totally bombing out to come plumb last, too bad to be true.
So we go again with a bunch of not that impressive 2yo's in the Duchess of Cambridge stakes Group 2. 2:25 Newmarket.
1 Hello You 117 11/4
2 Ellade 116 40/1
3 Sandrine 115 15/8
3 Desert Dreamer 115 12/1
Looking at that lot the obvious bet is Ellade @ 40/1. To Win if your man enough or EW if your one of those cautious sensible types. (Well hard men go for the whopping Forecast)
managed to get the fc and tc there pity i couldn't get the big price in but it was exciting for a while
- Nigwilliam, The Brigadier, Zico10 and 3 others
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1 hour ago, Zilzalian said:
Very interesting race the July stakes for 2yo with some surprising results from my speed figures so hoping for a decent payout
1st and 2nd top figures go to Dig Two 9/1 129 & 124
3rd Sam Maximus 33/1 121
4th Project Dante 3/1 119
one to watch Jadhlaan 14/1 117++
thoughts on the tv races
150 mandoob is a very quick animal
205 pennypot lane is a speculative punt
225 dig two (see above)
300 jadwaal must have a chance in this
335 al aasy is dodgy at that silly price so im not going to bother.
- Wildgarden and MCLARKE
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Very interesting race the July stakes for 2yo with some surprising results from my speed figures so hoping for a decent payout
1st and 2nd top figures go to Dig Two 9/1 129 & 124
3rd Sam Maximus 33/1 121
4th Project Dante 3/1 119
one to watch Jadhlaan 14/1 117++
Not sure what to make of Dig Two but single figure draws were no where. Sam Maximus held my figures up.
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2:25 Newmarket Dig Two 9/1 bet365
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If i was going to have £20 on anything today it would be the Charlton Treble.
So i put Gavi di gavi at 20/1 that won, on with the 3 charlton horses (2 odds on 1 @ 6/4) thought no point in doing anything other than 4 trebles and an acca. ermmmmmm. Even after all the years i have been betting i do something like this knowing full well that i would shake my head in disbelief if someone else did the exact same. Lessons 1. NEVER BACK ODDs ON. 2. never back odds on and 3 never back odds on.
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9 hours ago, The Equaliser said:
RESULTS UPDATE
Only 1 winner in my trixie so no return. Very interesting that I chose a couple of "possible improvers" over ones that had already proved themselves today and of course the already proved themselves horses won and I didn't. My loss for the day is £8.00. My new balance is £743.32 (Bank £1056.22)
I'm scratching around to find even some class 4 racing tomorrow so nothing much to look at. Looks like some classy racing at Newmarket on Thursday though
One of the bookies favourites is - punters picking potential over proven form.
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maybe his initials are adding to your confusion Lawrence Taylor = LT and LT last time. just a suggestion.
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320 wolvs Nacho 12/1 bet365
Racing Chat - Wednesday 14th July
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
I love nothing more than when my horse drifts, especially if i have backed it already, In my experience even if ur horse doesn't drift it could lose anyway so yippee doo if it drifts. example i backed Babelone in france last night at 5/1 today it doubled in price bet365 sp paid 10/1