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Zilzalian

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Posts posted by Zilzalian

    Racing Chat - Friday 18th June

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    3 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

    Thanks.

    I'm also retired but already probably spend too much time on the horses. I'll have a go but will try some short cuts.

    Is there any particular type of ground that produces more reliable speed figures?

    well you have to take a position, mine which has worked well is that G and GF is the standard, i dont differentiate after that the highest figure is the highest figure irrespective of going based on the assumption its the same for all the horses, ascot probably proves this point, in truth the more you over think it the more you end up kicking yourself i dont usually include favs in my betting and didnt today even tho point lonsdale was my top rated there wasnt really enough data to be definitive so left the win alone and just did a small fc and tc bet which failed but that wasnt overthinking that was/is my strategy the returns dont justify the outlay over a season sounds odd i know but it works for me. when i have a little more time i will pm you a pretty useful use of race times on the assumption you will keep it to yourself and not publish.

    Racing Chat - Friday 18th June

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    29 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

    Excellent results. I might have a go at producing some speed figures myself, any tips ?

    you need at least 20hrs (more in september/october) a week thats just to keep track of the 2yos, not many shortcuts im afraid, those 2yo figures are then good for when they get to 3yo, still interested? u can do them race by race but that takes up most of the evening before the day they run. im retired now so have time, the couple of years i did them when i was working i was mentally knackered, those  years i had dr devious 20/1 (derby) rodrigo de triano 2000 guineas 6/1 and marling at 50/1 who was the moral winner of the 1000 guineas (french horse got away with a stewards enquiry). jet ski lady 50/1 moonax at 66/1 st leger among many other winners, even my top rated handicapper won a group 2 at 25/1 but it really was hard work. and because u have to put the work in you really do have to do 3 x singles, 6x fc's and allways tc's it would be foolish not to. but small stakes produce big results so you dont need much on. as u can see i have over 300 points profit this week, so a good week, i have had bad weeks but never expensive ones due to the reasonable stakes. i cut the loses down by not using them for hcaps just listed and group races.

    Racing Chat - Friday 18th June

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    2 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

     winner yesterday following the fc weds so speed figures for 230 the Albany

    1 sows          120+        33/1

    2 hello you    117   aw     7/1

    3 sandrine    115+          22/1

    3 gypsy lady 115+ aw   66/1

    140/1 forecast (365 bog) for this punter.  That's 2fcs and a 14/1 winner this week of my 2yo ratings from 4 races

    Racing Chat - Friday 18th June

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Not really bothered about the rain/ground i am more bothered about the track bias, in effect there were 13 races yesterday they really do need to stop messing about with the course, like stop the watering a week before the first race, this its ridiculous, As long as there is a good covering of grass there is no need to water there are just as many horses go on GF than any other going. We pick horses that we think will win not horses that we think will do this or that. So today i will do what i did yesterday for the simple reason there are a multitude of excuses for a horse to get beat but only 1 for it to win and that is- it beat the others.

    Racing Chat - Friday 18th June

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    1 hour ago, The Brigadier said:

    Day 4 of Royal ascot and having missed the majority of the rain the ground was riding good to firm today but once again we have the threat of overnight thunderstorms so there is the realistic possibility of the ground changing overnight. Here my thoughts on the 7 races.

     

    Ascot 2.30

    The 6F Albany Stakes for 2yo fillies kicks off Day 4 with the possibilty of some dig in the ground. Flotus looked particularly smart when hosing up at Goodwood on her debut 27 days ago. The ground that evening was soft and with Dettori booked must go well for the Crisford’s. She looks the main play to me here although it may also be worth a small investment in the George Boughey trained Cachet who won by 5L on her debut at Newmarket in the style of a decent juvenile. Hello You is the other filly here who was visually impressive on her debut all be it it on the all weather at Wolverhampton. Throw in a well bred winner of Aidan O’Briens in Prettiest and we have some race. Flotus is my main pick with a saver on Cachet. 

    FLOTUS 2 points win @ 10/3 Bet365         

    CACHET 1 point each way @ 9/1 Bet365 1/5th 1234

     

    Ascot 3.05

    A disappointing turn out for this year’s renewal of The King Edward Vll Stakes with only 8 going to post and with the top rated only 108 the standard is not set too high. The one to beat has to be William Haggas’s Alenquer who was last seen winning the Sandown Classic Trial by 1/2L in April from none other than this year’s Derby winner Adayar with Yibir who re-opposes here only a neck away in third. He’s a winner in soft ground so will handle any juice in the ground and can take this. Yibir may be the one to chase him home having been gelded since last seen. Title is a good ground Yarmouth maiden winner who will need to step up to take this whilst Aidan O’Brien saddles The Mediterranean who was runner up in a listed contest last time at Leopardstown. 

    ALENQUER 2 points win @ 2/1 Bet365

     

    Ascot 3.40

    A bumper field of 21 go to post for the Group 1 Commonwealth Cup over 6F for three year olds. A case can be made for plenty with the French raider Suesa coming here unbeaten in 4 outings in her native country on soft ground so the softer the conditions the better for her. Whether stall 8 is a good draw or not is debatable. Campanelle is over from America for Wesley Ward and is 3 from 3 over sprint trips having failed to stay a mile in last season’s Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf, with Dettori in place she can be a big runner. Dragon Symbol is a horse I have a lot of time for and is another with a chance.  My best outsider is the Ken Condon trained Miss Amulet who had some smart juvenile spring form but flopped on her re-appearance in the Irish 1000 Guineas where she may not have stayed, back in trip here she looks fair ew value. A wide open contest but I’m going to stick with last year’s form of Campanelle and give Wesley Ward his first 6F winner at the Royal meeting with a small saver on Miss Amulet. 

    CAMPANELLE 2 points win@  9/2 Bet365

    MISS AMULET ½ point each way @ 25/1 Paddy Power 1/5th 12345 

     

    Ascot 4.20

    The Group 1 Coronation Stakes is run over 1m for 3 year old fillies and has attracted a field of 13 runners. Aidan O’Brien saddles two, his Irish 1000 Guineas winner Empress Josephine and English 1000 Guineas winner Mother Earth. The latter is the pick of Ryan Moore and followed up her 1000 win by finishing runner up in the French version a fortnight later. She’s the form horse here and the one they all have to beat. Alcohol Free raced on the slower part of the track in the English 1000 Guineas and did well to get to within 2L of Mother Earth and it wouldn’t be a shock to see her get closer although any further rain probably wouldn’t suit her. An interesting runner is the Sir Michael Stoute runner Potapova who will need to step up considerably on her Redcar win and is unproven  on slow ground, she is very exciting mind. The German 1000 Guineas winner Novemba is also of interest as she made all to win comfortably by 7L and although this will be tougher comes here as the highest rated horse in the race and also top on Timeform ratings. She’s drawn still 1 and will surely go forward from there and attempt to make all.  

    MOTHER PEARL 3 points win @ 4/1 Paddy Power

     

    Ascot 5.00

    A maximum field of 30 fillies will hurtle down the straight mile here in the Sandringham Handicap which looks as hard a handicap as I’ve seen all week. Bets should really be kept a minimum here with my shortlist comprising of top weight Friendly of Aidan O’Briens who ran 6th in the Irish 1000 Guineas although his mark of 102 seems rather high. Lucid Dreamer of Roger Charlton’s making his handicap debut off of 90 which looks a workable mark though a stall position of 9 doesn’t excite and Belief a lightly raced Cheveley Park Stud owned filly trained by William Haggas and Star Of Emaraaty who maybe well drawn in stall 2 on the far side and was last seen running 9th in the 1000 Guineas. A real head scratcher with stakes split small ew on Lucid Dreamer and Star Of Emaraaty. 

    LUCID DREAMER ½ point each way @ 22/1William Hill 1/5th 123456

    STAR OF EMARAATY ½ point each way 33/1William Hill 1/5th 123456

     

    Ascot 5.35

    Another maximum field of 19 go to post for the 1m 4F Duke Of Edinburgh Handicap run on the round course. The two current favourites Aaddeey and Quickthorn come here in fine form having won impressively last time but both have been re-assessed to the  tune of 13lb. I’m a fan of the former who is trained by the Crisford’s and he should run a big race. Last year’s winner Scarlet Dragon is back for another go from a 4lb higher mark and will appreciate any easing of the ground whilst Ryan Moore is on the same stables Tritonic who we know from his winter hurdling exploits. Yet again a tough handicap but I’ll stick with Aaddeey who is still improving and won’t mind slowish ground. 

    AADDEEY 1 point each way @ 6/1 Bet365 ¼ 1234

     

    Ascot  6.10

    The final race of the day is one of the newest handicaps on the card, the Palace Of Holyroodhouse Stakes Handicap. A 5F handicap for three year olds only won last year by the 6/4 fav Art Power. Looking at the races over the minimum trip so far this week it appears that either very high or very low seems the place to be. Warrior Brave is 7lb well in for his 2nd to Atalis Bay at Sandown last weekend and looks sure to run well for The Horsewatchers in first time blinkers. He’s one of best handicapped horses in the field though has a middle draw. Significantly looks an interesting runner from stall 24. Karl Burke’s speedster has bumped into two potential Group horses on his last two starts in Creative Force and Dragon Symbol, has form on all types of ground and can run well. Roger Varian’s Boomshalaa makes his handicap debut winning twice at 6F and is dropping back a furlong here and is well fancied Mo Celina is looking for his 6th win on the spin and he’s one who would appreciate any more rain. A competitive race but I will split my stakes between Significantly and Warrior Brave with slight preference for the former as he appears to be better drawn. 

    SIGNIFICANTLY 1 point each way @ 9/1 Bet365 1/5th 12345

    WARRIOR BRAVE ½ point each way @ 8/1 William Hill 1/5th 123456

     

     

     

    I really fancy lucid dreamer but like you say the track is a nightmare, personally i wish they would leave well alone and stop the watering, if its firm so be it, if its got a good covering of grass would be fine but now if it chucks it down it will be heavier than it should be. We have seen races this week where half the field have had no chance.

    Racing Chat- Thursday 17th June

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    42 minutes ago, calva decoy said:

    I thought the same , it was very Mooresque , maybe Marco Ghiani could give him some coaching ?

    It happens to all great jockeys , he did the same on Enable in the Arc a few years back , you definitely need to be prominent on the Round course this festival .

    I think you can forgive frankie one but crowley ffs he managed to get mohaather beat last year and that ride on eshaada today was shocking, i wont even begin to mention the winner he had mohaafeth the maximum 14 days for that not 6.

    Racing Chat- Thursday 17th June

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    2 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

    After yesterdays 158/1 f/c (296/1 exacta) todays speed figures for the Norfolk stakes are as follows, again i will stipulate you will have to take a view on the Ward runners because they don't equate very well although Lucci appears to be pretty quick.

    1 Perfect Power  127       12/1

    2 Cadamosto     126 (aw) 9/2

    3 Navello            125         25/1

     

    good luck

    wont complain at not getting the f/c the winner will do

    Racing Chat- Thursday 17th June

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    After yesterdays 158/1 f/c (296/1 exacta) todays speed figures for the Norfolk stakes are as follows, again i will stipulate you will have to take a view on the Ward runners because they don't equate very well although Lucci appears to be pretty quick.

    1 Perfect Power  127       12/1

    2 Cadamosto     126 (aw) 9/2

    3 Navello            125         25/1

     

    good luck

    Racing Chat - Wednesday 16th June

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    19 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

    Bit of ew profit yesterday 2yo speed figures. Todays 2yo Queen Mary stakes there is only a couple of points between 10 of them.

    so ew bets at prices are a good option

    1 beautiful sunshine 119           18/1

    2 Yet                          118 (aw) 12/1

    3 Coup de force        118           100/1

    Additional speed ratings - Windsor castle stakes, proviso=you take a view on the ward runners as they dont equate very well but appear moderate.

    1 Dig two 129 (aw) 124 turf      15/2

    2 Barging through    128           16/1 from 33's

    3 Chipotle                 128-         25/1

    158/1 forecast for this punter there hope a few others took notice.

    Racing Chat - Wednesday 16th June

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Bit of an observation from this quarter-Audarya a horse that won at the breeders cup, not only that but if you watch the french race that Tarnawa (one of this years Arc favs) won, you will notice Audarya was arguably unlucky. but the point i am making is that Audarya has been 14/1 all week is now 9/1 even with the withdrawal of lord north. win lose or draw that was/is some price.

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