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Zilzalian

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Posts posted by Zilzalian

    SPEED RATINGS

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    2 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

    You are probably right.

    My selections have been very simplistic so far whilst I am building up my data from previous years. I have 4 years of data now, I need 2 more then I can analyse 5 years of data and then test it on 2023. Hopefully this will highlight such issues as this race with limited data. One initial conclusion I came to having had a quick look at 1 years data is that you should ignore the next run and concentrate on the 2nd and 3rd run.

    Treat 2yo races differently is my advice to you because you can't (trainers) mess 2yo's about too much and they are trying to find out their level for the future. At pattern level i would suggest that 2yo speed figures are the most accurate. One of the best tools is deciding whether the rating you assign to a horse is above or below the average.

    SPEED RATINGS

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    4 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

    I too have Painite top rated but the numbers are restricted due to the lack of amount of runs involved i like the look of looking for queen so its a (Rfc around 85/1) race for me. The argument for the fav is definitely weak.

    @MCLARKE Given the amount of racing would you agree with me that i think there is a good case for leaving races like this well alone due to the limited data given the amount of runs?

    SPEED RATINGS

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    1 hour ago, MCLARKE said:

    A win for Bolsena yesterday at 8.00 BSP

    Current profit 1.86 points

    Top rated today (both in total and on the going) is Painite in the 4.10 at Newmarket. It is available at 11/1, I have had a win bet on the exchanges.

    Also top rated on both is Shouldvbeenaring in the 3.00. I have had an EW bet with Ladbrokes at 16/5 (4 places).

    There are 2 top rated on both at Ripon (heavy going). 

    In the 4.17 I've backed Illusionist EW at 16/5 with Ladbrokes (4 places).

    In the 4.52 I've gone for Flying Finn at 27/20 with BETMGM.

     

    I too have Painite top rated but the numbers are restricted due to the lack of amount of runs involved i like the look of looking for queen so its a (Rfc around 85/1) race for me. The argument for the fav is definitely weak.

    SPEED RATINGS

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    2 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

    Top rated on todays going is UNDER THE TWILIGHT in the 3.50 based on its 3rd at Newbury last May over todays distance. It is rated second overall to the favourite Tiriac. Available at 12/1 (4 places).

    A little bonus in speed figures is it is very easy to produce a list/become aware of bad/poor horses which are a very good measure of the strength of a race especially if the said horse is fav or second fav. Great for deciding what stake to invest if you have one at a decent price.

    SPEED RATINGS

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    20 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

    Still working on the best way of using speed figures but I suspect I will only use them when the top speed has been achieved on the current going and distance so that should avoid the problem of horses being deliberately run over the wrong distance or going.

    I will probably use them in the better class races.

    One question I would ask is how far back would you go to look at speed figures, for instance would a speed figure achieved 3 years ago still be relevant. 

    Well in my opinion and they way i formulate speed figures, i go off all its wins and places, horses move up and down the handicap over the years so they are relevant certainly for 4 years and i would suggest beyond, didn't Documenting win the other day at a decent price 22/1? That horse is 11 years old, Boom the Groom won 3 times last year at decent prices and that one is 13, the older horses tend to run at their own level all be it lack consistency steadily dropping down in grade until they are retired. That's why i am very weary of handicaps and only use speed seriously in Pattern races or in the heritage handicaps "worth winning". That's not to say they should be discarded because i use this type of horse in Lucky 15 etc for a bit of fun and have done reasonably well out of them. One thing to bear in mind about distances and goings in pattern races the top trainers have a pretty good idea of whether a horse can do the trip or ground particularly as they age from 2yo-3yo-4yo  that's why we have so many horses pulled out if the conditions don't suit Trueshan is a good example of that. I do disregard or downgrade horses at distances that they haven't won over once they reach 4 year old and beyond especially in sprints but there are always exceptions to the rules.

    Bit of Fun Aintree Lucky 15 Competition 13th of April. Day 3 (Your selections below please)

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    15 hours ago, calva decoy said:

    Pester him enough & he'll be gagging to run the forthcoming Punchestown festival 😉 

    Well done @Zilzalian  despite a few cock ups .

    To be honest i don't bother much with Punchestown and i am glad to see the back of the jumps i have had a shocking season. No wonder Mullins will probably win OUR trainers title our horses are useless collectively.

    SPEED RATINGS

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    6 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

    I think training regimes might be better these days, the profitability of fit horses that had been prevalent for many years no longer seem to work

    I agree to a degree (rhymes that) but we also have the "need to get the handicap mark down" problem as well and because the eyes are everywhere it is easier to get a horse beaten over the wrong trip or as i have seen often on the AW run it around the outside of the field amongst other little tricks they employ. I can't emphasise enough how speed figures should be used with caution in handicaps the only time i use them is in top handicaps. In lower grade races i view them as better than nothing. You know your aw horses well from what i read so if your new found speed figure confirms your "form" selection then it is a very good plus and maybe a good reason to increase your stake.

    SPEED RATINGS

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    1 hour ago, MCLARKE said:

    First bit of flat racing today at Yarmouth

    Going Good To Firm which after all the rain elsewhere is a surprise

    My top rated today is Angle Land, I have it 4 lengths ahead of the next best. However that rating was on soft going so I will discount it on that basis.

    The next best are all close together so no bet for me, I will not try and force a bet.

    I have it top rated on both goings and standard. It will be interesting to see.

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