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Zilzalian
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Posts
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Posts posted by Zilzalian
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400 newb hierarchy 22/1 bet365
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1 hour ago, Striker said:
Update
Benoit de la Sayette can resume riding from 17th October, after being banned for six months
Admitted falling in with a "bad crowd" but is now back home living with his parents
The same Frankie that got caught when he first came over and then many years later when Godolfin dropped him? ermmm Frankie mentoring? falon, frankie, oisin, etc etc, how many more before they actually get banned for life?
- MCLARKE, peanut peanut and gbettle
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Jessica Harrington has had 18 winners in 2 weeks some at huge odds. and some pretty impressive accas.
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5 hours ago, alexcaruso808 said:
Do you only calculate speed figures for 2 yo?
yes as a rule so at the end of the year i have a good idea of the best of them i occasionally if i dont have enough data on a particular horse in a group race at 3yo i calculate that 1 race again to confirm what i already know one example of this was the St leger many years ago 1992 when i think it was called user friendly had not run as a 2yrold, so now you can see the dangers of not doing it because that horse won.
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210 Ayr Vertiginous 14/1 paddypower
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130 Yarmouth
Zabelle 16/1
BET365
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1 hour ago, Bang on said:
I can see the logic, I see more and more trainers trying to at least get a double up these days. Probably because it can be a struggle to get on and doubles help the payout.
Saturday was also a good day for me, but the 1 let me down curse happened again. 5 selections, 4 winners (in trebles and an acca), and the last 1 (Line of Descent - 700 mile round trip - and odds on fav in the end) let me down. 2k instead of 7k.
Yep have you noticed though its always the short prices that let you down more often than not, last breeders cup i was sitting for £32,000 and Siskin got beat is one example i remember well. Cue card falling in the gold cup cost me a whopper is another.
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37 minutes ago, alexcaruso808 said:
Thanks for the reply. The only stable I really follow is Godolphin, mostly Charlie Appleby trained horses, especially if William Buick or James Doyle are the jockeys. I used to follow quite a lot of Saeed bin Suroor's horses, but hasn't been having a good time of late. The Gosdens are good too.
always check the french Godolphin horses especially Fabre when he travels one. problem with the Godolfin horses they are generally too short a price to justify the bet, same with gosden. you are right about suroor seams to be very 3rd string now. Appleby has totally out performed him since taking over from Al Zaroony
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1 hour ago, MCLARKE said:
This calendar
Yes she had an excellent day but she did have 8 runners so you would have had to place 219 bets if you were trying to cover all the 3+ accumulators.
Yes that's the problem i was lucky in respect that i chose the 5 races with 3 winners (bopedro really unlucky). but also did you notice Ger Lyons did even better noting that Keane on one got beat by the Lyons second string.
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39 minutes ago, alexcaruso808 said:
What made you back her?
Well over the years i have had various trainers that i followed (2 or 3 at any one time) based on my experiences and i put them in small bets of lucky 15's and L31 and occasionally L63 knowing that at least once a season it will pay off, i think its good to have a few trainers that you follow, that is to say not big stables because you just cant cover them, Ireland, Harrington is a big stable but there are not loads of races, the only problem, she sometimes has 2 or 3 in one race then its logical to go with her stable jockey (foley) she also does it on the jumps, her and alan king are probably the best duel purpose trainers around. my main bets are win singles but i have made quite a bit of money out of the small cost lucky 15's, i call them my bonus bets, best i have done was 6K on a 30p L31 (£9.30) and it gives me something to watch in many races. there is no substitute for watching races and having a notebook. but obviously if your working you cant really do this to a great degree but the notebook is vital, most people just moan when they pick a loser instead of gleaning info from the race.
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10 hours ago, The Equaliser said:
Can't help wondering what Jessica Harrington's AE is? She got two more good priced winners today at the Curragh. I hope that @Zilzalianwas on these?
@MCLARKE said it was negative which is fair enough if your using pure statistics, I back them in multiples saturday = 3000/1+ (bopedro would have won if drawn better making it 40,000/1 ish)
50/1+ yesterday you dont need much on at those prices, my point was more to do with certain trainers have multiple winners mary reveley was one years ago, pipe etc obviously you cant back all the trainers that do it but by using experience you can pick and choose, my criteria is based on prices, no use backing 6 gosden horses a) because there all short prices and B) he may have 12 out in a day same with fahey, i merely advised someone that she was a good trainer to follow because she gets multiples and what happens about 3 days later? boom lol my profit on Saturday was £1,600 for a bet costing £9.30
- alexcaruso808 and The Equaliser
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420 Compiegne Sledgehammer 16/1 paddy power
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3 hours ago, MCLARKE said:
How do they define "running to form".
What is the definition of a good run ? I've looked at various ways of measuring it over the years but I haven't found anything better than the basic finishing position.
Exactly, that RTF is floss. If what is obvious and there for all to see ie O'Brien has only had 1 winner from 45 runners and you know O'Brien normally fires them in regularly then what use is a 60% RTF? it only serves to send some inexperienced punters down the wrong path. In my view it is a totally useless piece of information, even in reverse its useless as you and i both know trainers are often in and out of form then all of a sudden winners, it is their modus operandi that is important.
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11 hours ago, MCLARKE said:
for some reason i cant see this day, i can see all the other days. only Thumbnail "image.png" anyone else?
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450 Wolves deftera lad 22/1 bet365
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A P O'Brien had 1 winner from 45 runners in 14 days RTF (running to form) 60% Ermmmmmmm that just tells me that RTF in the racing post is BS
- MCLARKE, Bang on and The Equaliser
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3 hours ago, Zilzalian said:
I have pondered this price fluidity for quite a while, i have two thoughts which may seem a bit obvious, 1st-early prices coupled with BOG makes the bookies play safe when pricing the night/day before, 2nd they don't really have market forces to help them. So i concluded overall that if or as long as you have BOG then it is advantageous to play early just on the best of both worlds basis. i could break down the favs v bigger price aspect but even that is fluid although i have noticed that the bigger prices often contract/expand more often than the favs.
To add to the conundrum, today (this morning) Fresh Fancy was 9/1 across the boards it drifted to 18/1 5 minutes before the race on Bet365, before returning to 10/1 SP
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Anyone seen an outstanding performance from a horse today? If so would you be so kind as to list it here?
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3 hours ago, MCLARKE said:
Flat selection
Brighton 2.10
GREAT NEWS 5/2
Bloody annoying that result i thought that was best price of the day but it could have been worse there are people who backed Bartzella at 1/5 based on what? ffs.
- MCLARKE and alexcaruso808
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3 hours ago, MCLARKE said:
They appear to have drifted. I have noticed this myself, prices taken the night before often seem to drift. What is the best time to take a price ?
I have pondered this price fluidity for quite a while, i have two thoughts which may seem a bit obvious, 1st-early prices coupled with BOG makes the bookies play safe when pricing the night/day before, 2nd they don't really have market forces to help them. So i concluded overall that if or as long as you have BOG then it is advantageous to play early just on the best of both worlds basis. i could break down the favs v bigger price aspect but even that is fluid although i have noticed that the bigger prices often contract/expand more often than the favs.
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645 kemp fresh fancy 9/1 bet365
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440 Curr Barbados 33/1 bet365
Racing Chat- Saturday September 18th
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
Speed figures for the 2 group races.
3:05 Ayr G3
1 Rishes Baar 126+ 8/1
2 Lady of Yapham 122 25/1
3 Hala Hala Yathmani 119+ 4/1
4:00 Newbury G2
1 Hierarchy 125 22/1 (my nap)
1 Khunan 125 20/1
3 Wings of War 124 14/1